If we could post Irvin's MLE here, that'd be great - has a complete one been posted?

This isn't really on topic, but at least it's tangential:

Can anybody recommend some excellent books on the Negro Leagues? It's an area of the sport that any fan of baseball should be completely fascinated in, but I (like many others) am criminally undereducated with regards to. I'd love to change that.

From the CF discussion thread:

77. DL from MN Posted: August 27, 2008 at 11:48 AM (#2918545)
Actually it got easier once I looked into it. There's a 5 point gap between Al Simmons and Jimmy Sheckard in my spreadsheet. I don't know exactly where Monte Irvin will fall but it is highly likely to be somewhere in there. Slot him at 10th between them on my revised LF ballot.

78. Mark Donelson Posted: August 27, 2008 at 02:20 PM (#2918781)
I would have Irvin 12th among LFs, between Magee and Billy Williams.

I'm going to count both of those as ballots. (If either DL from MN or Mark Donelson object to that, he can post a revision.)

I've rigged a spreadsheet that will work with precisely that information, provided you voted in the LF ballot. This will work best if all 22 of the voters in that election post their placement of Irvin. It's not clear to me whether we will or won't count any brand-new ballots, but in any case, any brand-new ballot would have to include all 22 eligible players. (See the LF discussion thread for the names of the other 21.)

2 votes case, 20 to go.

I was wondering whether Irvin would have been elected as easily had he been in LF all along, but the two "ballots" above seem to indicate he would have.

I posted this way back when I was about to leave for out of town. I looked it over and I still agree with it. Please regard it as my official vote for Monte Irvin in left field. - Brock

I have no opinion on where to place Monte Irvin (meaning which outfield position to assign him). However, I'm about to go out of town again, for the last time this year, so if I'm going to place him among the left fielders, I'd better do it now. I took a look at the fine Irvin thread, thought about it for a bit, and decided to vote him 15th on my ballot, between Medwick and Minoso. The thread's comparison with Medwick was a real help, as they do turn out to look similar. I'm not sure Irvin was better than Minoso, but I'm pretty sure they were really close. - Brock

Can anybody recommend some excellent books on the Negro Leagues?

As a general introduction, I recommend Shades of Glory by Lawrence Hogan. Other excellent books that provide a good background include Baseball's Great Experiment: Jackie Robinson and His Legacy by Jules Tygiel, Beyond the Shadow of the Senators: The Untold Story of the Homestead Grays and the Integration of Baseball by Brad Snyder, and the now somewhat dated classic, Only the Ball Was White by Robert Peterson. Unfortunately, we're still waiting for the Hall of Fame to publish a comprehensive and accurate statistical encyclopedia. Until then, the best available reference books include The Complete Book of Baseball's Negro Leagues: The Other Half of Baseball History by John Holway, The Negro Leagues Book by Dick Clark and Larry Lester,</i> and The Biographical Encyclopedia of the Negro Baseball Leagues by James Riley. I'll also put in a plug for Gary Ashwill's excellent Web site, agatetype.typepad.com.

I would have placed Monte Irvin at #11 on my left field ballot:

9) Billy Williams
10) Jimmy Sheckard
11) Monte Irvin
12) Willie Stargell

He's only a little behind Stargell as a hitter but much better defensively than Stargell. Like Stargell, he had some trouble staying in the lineup. Although they were very different players stylistically, that's his best comp. Williams bests him on durability, as he bests Stargell. Irvin vs. Sheckard was nearly a coin toss. I'm a little worried about Irvin's top season having been in Mexico, so I give the edge to Sheckard.

A couple of books I would add,
Buck O'Neil's I Was Right on Time,
Holway's Voices from the Great Black Baseball Leagues
both of those are nice oral histories essentially. I own Trouppe's 20 Years Too Soon, but haven't read it. I should add it to my pile of books to read.

And in the fiction area
The Bingo Long Traveling All-Stars and Motor Kings by William Brashler is so much better than the movie.
The Vera Cruz Blues by Mark Winegardner may be the best piece of baseball fiction I ever read. This book is a great insight into the Mexican Leagues just after WW2.

If there was a BB HOM for fiction, well it would be right there,Bang the Drum Slowly, The Iowa Baseball Confederacy, The Universal Baseball Association, Inc., J. Henry Waugh, Proprietor , The Celebrant, If I Never Get Back , and probably one of Troy Soos' mystery books.

Oh, I also wanted to mention Dr. Tygiel's book is very good, but he was an academic, and it sometimes reads that way. It is info packed but not a pleasant read.

One other thing that you might notice as you read Negro League stuff, the guys that played back East are somewhat bitter (GENERALLY) about the experience, but the guys who played in KC and Chicago generally talk about how much they loved that part of their life. I think that is Buck O'Neil, he loved it, and I think he made everyone around him love it.

Another book I'll mention for a fun read is Satchel Paige's autobiography, Maybe I'll Pitch Forever. You don't want to treat everything he says as factual history, but he's a good story teller.

Updated MLE's, please?

Updated MLE's, please?

Not before Thursday.

For those eyeballing their placement of Irvin, I don't believe new MLEs will be very different from the current ones--one reason I didn't leap to doing new MLEs before I ventured my own placement of Irvin. But new MLEs will be more reliable and can serve as a basis for Dan's running Irvin through his system to calculate WAR, so I will get to them as soon as I can.

My comment is still valid, unless the MLEs show something different.

Re. comment #4: When I voted for Irvin, he was a LFer. Later on he became a CF, and now he's back in LF again. At the time, I think everybody knew he moved around a bit. It's like called Pete Browning a CF. I hope everybody knows he played something like 50 more games in CF than LF.

I would have had him #14. This is my official ballot on the subject.

I would have had him #12.

Monte Irvin would be #9 on my ballot.

Another voter checks in
I have Irvin at #15, a nudge behind Kelley (I like the one-league high prime) and just ahead of Goslin

Monte Irvin would be #14 on my ballot.

Minoso is a key marker for me. Using the younger age for Minoso, it's clear that Irvin was as good from the age of 31 on - and Irvin had a peak in his early 20's that Minoso didn't. So Irvin has to be a few notches ahead of Minoso. (I am keeping a combined LF/RF chart.)

I'll put him 14th on my ballot, below Wheat and ahead of Medwick.

9 ballots cast, 13 to go.

He's #15 of 22 on my ballot, below Wheat and above Medwick.

#15

Behind Minoso (what Monte did in short MLB seasons after age 30, Minnie did while playing full seasons after 30 -- just a straight comparison at what they accomplished at the same age), and ahead of Wheat.

"what Monte did in short MLB seasons after age 30, Minnie did while playing full seasons after 30"

Seems to short the fact that Monte Irvin played some infield throughout his 20s making him probably more valuable during that period even calling his bat even with Minoso.

I am surprised by this, but when I reviewed the threads and the numbers, Irvin comes in #10, between Keller and Williams.

The 10 people who haven't voted yet: Chris Cobb, Devin McCullen, Esteban Rivera, Joe Dimino, John Murphy, mulder & scully, Rusty Priske, Sean Gilman, Tiboreau, TomH.

I haven't either, still waiting for MLE's.

Sorry - slipped a line there. For "Chris Cobb" in post #24, read "Dan R." Chris has voted. The count of 10 voters left is correct.

Place Irvin at #16 on my ballot.

I'm waiting for the MLE's too.

I'm working on new MLEs for Irvin, and I should be able to finish them this weekend.

Irvin's MLEs are a pain, because he has three different seasons in which he played in two different leagues with different competition levels, which have to be integrated before they can be converted to MLEs and put into the regression equations.

But they are almost done.

Cross-posted from the Monte Irvin thread

Monte Irvin MLEs, second edition



1942* Veracruz in MXL; Also played for Newark
1945* Missed time in this season is due to military service; credit appropriate
1949* Jersey City in International League; also played for New York Giants
1950* Also played for Jersey City

Notes on conversions.
For 1942 MxL, conversion factors of .87/.76 were applied
For 1949-50 IL conversion factors of .93/.86 were applied
For 1939-48, regression to a 3-5 year mean was applied.
For 1949-50, minor league stats were converted to MLEs and added to major-league stats for those seasons to produce seasonal totals.
For 1951-56, totals are for major-league play only

I haven’t done estimated extra base hit totals. Since Irvin has a major-league profile, I assume that will provide the necessary information for estimated baserunning wins for his pre-ML seasons. His higher stolen base totals before WWII would very likely have been matched by higher totals of triples in those seasons. I would guess his base-running value was pretty consistent 1946-51; after that he was significantly hampered by ankle injuries.

Irvin would be 12 on my ballot, between Wheat and C. Jones.

Irvin comes in at #13 on my ballot, between Wheat and Magee.

I'm going to slot Irvin at #9 between Clarke and Keller tentatively.

Still need six more votes to finish this: Dan R, Joe Dimino, mulder & scully, Rusty Priske, Sean Gilman, and Tiboreau. Some of you just voted in the RF ballot - how about coming over here?

I am still waiting for a positional breakdown and revised Fielding Win Shares for Irvin.

And I'm waiting for Dan R's numbers.

Irvin slides in at #6 for me ahead of Burkett, assuming Chris Cobb confirms that he truly projects that Irvin could have fielded his NgL CF/SS/2B mix at an MLB league average-plus level.

Irvin moves from 10th to 7th with the new numbers between Clarke and Burkett. This basically means Irvin was better than Will Clark's career before age 30 because that was what I was using as a proxy for Irvin.

Thanks for the new numbers guys!

I'm going to put Irvin at #13.

11. Kelley
12. Jones
13. Irvin
14. Magee
15. Keller

Now four votes to go. One of them is Joe Dimino - where is Joe, anyway? I think we need action on the 2009 regular ballot.

I just put Dan's numbers into my system. Insert Irvin into 6th after Yastrzemski. He is just about tied with Yaz, and significantly ahead of any others. Thanks for waiting.

On my CF ballot I indicated that Mr. Irvin would be 10th among HoM left fielders. With the addition of Dan R's numbers Monte Irvin moves to 7th.

Hey guys, been pretty busy this past week or two.

I'm around . . . I will vote on Irvin, but I was waiting for DanR's conversion of Chris Cobb's MLEs . . .

As for the regular ballot, I'll comment on that thread so as not to soil the Irvin thread . . .

Dan, are you going to post your numbers for Irvin? Or are they somewhere I might have missed? Just want to check before I vote. Thanks!

They're on his thread. I would recommend using the figures in my final post (where I subjectively reduced his FWAA) rather than the ones in the chart a few posts above for his NgL years--I do not think he would have been an average-plus fielding shortstop in the majors.

How are we doing on Irvin?
Maybe Joe and John have email addresses for "all" voters, nearly?

How are we doing? The answer is that I need exactly two votes in order to declare it finished. One is Joe Dimino and the other is Rusty Priske. As of now, I am certain of where Irvin will rank, but I'd like to see at least one of those two votes before going public with what I have. Votes for Irvin are also causing some slight movements among other candidates, where there were ties or near-ties in the original balloting.

I kind of assumed we would be done with this by now....

In a thread concerning Minnie Minoso, I posted that Minoso ranked 18th out of 22 HoM left fielders and that Irvin ranked 10th. That statement - that Irvin ranks 10th - is based on a bit of a projection. It assumes that at least one of Joe or Rusty would place Irvin in the general middle of the pack, consistent with most other voters. If both Joe and Rusty ranked him in the 20-21-22 range, such as both 21st, then Irvin would be 11th behind Stargell. But if they both put him 20th, that would put Irvin ahead of Stargell. There's a pretty large gap in front of that, so if both Joe and Rusty were to rank Irvin 3rd, then he's still be 10th behind Billy Williams. So even though it's a projection, I'd say the ranking of Irvin as 10th is pretty solid.

1. T. Williams
2. Musial
--- (Henderson is not yet officially a HoMer) ---
3. Delahanty
4. Yastrzemski
5. Raines
6. Burkett
7. Simmons
8. Clarke
9. B. Williams
10. Irvin
11. Stargell
12. Magee
13. Sheckard
14. Wheat
15. Keller (Adding Irvin to the ballot breaks some ties)
16. Kelley
17. Goslin
18. Minoso
19. Jones
20. Medwick
21. Stovey
22. Kiner

It's still possible for the exact votes of Joe and Rusty to affect the Sheckard/Wheat/Keller/Kelley order.

Hey guys, I will vote on Irvin, but I cannot do it before Wednesday, I'm tied up for the next few days out of town. Very sorry for the delay.

--Joe