Here you go, Marc.

Thanks, John.

To me, the biggest gap in our knowledge right now is of the second tier NeL pitchers—“second tier” defined simply to mean those whom we have not already elected. I don’t have Holway or any other major source of info on the subject, but I have gone back through info already posted on HoM. Sorry, I don’t know who posted most of the info as I have long since cut and pasted it into a series of docs on to my desktop.

And, lacking the basic sources myself, I am proposing that this be a group effort, and I am sure it will be. I hope some of you share my sense of urgency to get these guys right, especially since right now they are all fading out of sight. Hopefully this exercise will build confidence that we know which of these guys was the best candidate(s) among them, and then we can slot them accordingly on (or off) our ballots.

Three analyses coming in a series of posts:

1. I have created a simple index and rated about 50 pitchers on that index. The index consists of two parts:

• Pct. of votes in HoF voting in Cool Papas (?)—avg. of the two votes by ex-players and “experts” divided by ten. Players already in the HoF rated at 100 percent (again, divided by ten). So this part of the index consists of a number from 0 to 10. This measure perhaps gives too much weight to pitchers who are in the Cooperstown HoF with an automatic 10 points, but you know who they are and how to adjust to your own taste. You might think of this as some sort of measure of “career value.”

• Number of times the player was (retroactively) awarded All-Star, MVP, George Stovey Award (GSA—i.e. best pitcher) status by Holway, and best pitcher status by Bill James. (No special weighting for MVP, etc., since presumably an MVP has already earned 1 point that year as All-Star and probably another as GSA, for potentially 3 points from Holway alone. Think of it as a “peak value rating” or a “big year bonus.”) This part of the index consists of a number from 0 to 14.5 (Smokey Joe Williams earned 14.5 on this measure).

• Simply add the two numbers together.

2. Then I looked at each of the top pitchers on an xls that includes Fib (it will be obvious to some who the originator of the spreadsheet was but I’m sorry I don’t remember).

3. Then I asked whether (from the first two sources) there were any other pitchers who didn’t score well in the indexing stage but who deserve more attention.

4. Then as a first step toward re-evaluating those who need to be re-evaluated, I reviewed info for those eligible NeL pitchers who have their own the threads: Brewer, D. Brown, Cooper, Donaldson, Mendez, Redding and Winters, several of whom are indeed among the top rated pitchers by method #1 above. (But there are other pitchers, to be sure, who need more attention.)

Again, all of this will be coming in a series of posts. Hope you find them helpful.

Here are the top rated NeL pitchers according to a simple index including (see above post #2 for more details):

• HoF voting history (0 to 10) +plus+
• All-star/MVP/GSA awards (0 to 14)

You will be pleased to know that thus far we have elected pretty much the right guys.

I say that, in part, knowing that the very early pitchers—e.g. Rube Foster—are underrated by this method. Other old-timers like Mendez and Donaldson and Whitworth are also underrated in that they were somewhat overlooked in the Cool Paps voting, and not as many points are available in the second half of the index.

I am not sure about the upcoming eligibility dates. I took them from a very early list and I think they have been fine-tuned since then. They should be close anyway.

Top Ten

1. Smokey Joe Williams 10 + 14.5 = 24.5 HoM
2. Big Bill Foster 10 + 11 = 21 HoM
3. Bullet Joe Rogan 10 + 11 = 21 HoM
4. Hilton Smith 10 + 7 = 17 eligible 1954?
5. Leon Day 10 + 5.5 = 15.5 eligible 1960?
6. Ray Brown 6.25 + 8 = 14.25 not in Cooperstown, eligible 1955?, #5T all-time in second half of index
7. Rube Foster 10 + 4 = 14 HoM
8. Dick Redding 6.5 + 7 = 13.5 not in Cooperstown
9. Satchel Paige 10 + 3 = 13 eligible 1959?
10. Nip Winters 1.35 + 11.5 = 12.85 not in Cooperstown, #2 in second half of index

11. Chet Brewer 6.9 + 4 = 10.9 all players in the second ten not in Cooperstown
12. Bill Byrd 3.4 + 7 = 10.4 eligible 1953?
13. Jose Mendez 4.15 + 6 = 10.15
14. Andy Cooper 1.5 + 8 = 9.5 #5T in second half of index
15. Ted Trent 1.45 + 8 = 9.45 #5T in second half of index, now eligible

(big drop-off)

16. Max Manning 2.25 + 4 = 6.25 eligible 1957?
17. Leroy Matlock 0.2 + 6 = 6.2 now eligible
18. John Donaldson 2.7 + 2.5 = 5.2
19. Booker McDaniel 0 + 4 = 4 eligible 1955?
20. Dick Whitworth 0 + 4 = 4 now eligible

I would suggest that anybody in the top ten ought to be looked at very very seriously, and perhaps anyone in the top 15 plus the old-timers (Donaldson, Whitworth) rated 16-20. That would cover everybody except Manning, Matlock and McDaniel and some of you might want to consider them anyway.

More specifically, how about a thread for the ones that are already eligible and don't already have a thread, meaning:

Ted Trent
Dick Whitworth

Thanks. (Though, again, I will say that I have nothing to put on their threads, just questions about who they are and what they did!)

Here is data that I have (thanks to….) for some of the pitchers who my “index” suggests ought to get looked at closer. My understanding is these are documented NeL records, I think from MacMillan but whoever posted them originally (thank you thank you) can clarify.

Caution is required with this data, of course, because the number of IP, decisions, etc., bear very little relationship to the length of career, etc. Rather it just reflects how much of the player’s career happens to have been documented and picked up in this particular source and that very much favors pitchers and players from the 1920s.

Also, WHIPs probably should not be compared across eras but are useful within eras.

Already and Currently Eligible (the number to the left is their ranking on the index shown in post #3)

8. Dick Redding (index 13.5) (1911-31) 69-54, .560, 8.2 WHIP, 3 K/9

10. Nip Winters (12.85) (1921-32) 95-54, .640, 9.4 WHIP, 3.1 K/9

11. Chet Brewer (10.9) (1925-48) 88-61, .590, 11.1 WHIP, 4.4 K/9

13. Jose Mendez (10.15) no data

14. Andy Cooper (9.5) (1920-30) 118-57, .670, 9.8 WHIP, 2.9 K/9

15. Ted Trent (9.45) (1927-39) 93-49, .650, 9.4 WHIP, 4 K/9

17. Leroy Matlock (6.2) no data

18. John Donaldson (5.2) no data

20. Dick Whitworth (4) no data

Soon to Be Eligible

5. Hilton Smith (17) (1933-48) 69-33, .680, 8.5 WHIP, 4.2 K/9

6. Leon Day (15.5) (1934-49) 67-29, .700, 7.6 WHIP, 3.5 K/9

7. Ray Brown (14.25) (1932-45) 101-30, .770, 8.4 WHIP, 2.4 K/9

9. Satchel Paige (13) (1927-50) 124-80, .610, 7.9 WHIP, 6.4 K/9

12. Bill Byrd (10) (1933-50) 116-78, .600, 9.8 WHIP, 3.7 K/9

16. Max Manning (6.25) (1939-49) 68-32, .680, 8.8 WHIP, 4.1 K/9

19. Booker McDaniel (4) no data

I would not draw any real conclusions from the McMillan data, at least not just yet.

But I would note some aggregate trends. The pitchers already eligible on paper look much less effective than the ones coming up.

Already eligible—mean: .622 WL Pct, 9.6 WHIP, 3.5 K/p

Upcoming—.667 WL Pct, 8.5 WHIP, 4.05 K/9

What does that mean? We saw in the Martin Dihigo thread that many many NeL stars played in Mexico in the ‘40s. Was the NeL less competitive? I think that it was less competitive in the ‘40s than in the ‘30s, and by that I mean that the quality of play was not as good and so the best pitchers dominated more. But that is just a hypothesis, and it kinda goes against the oral tradition that sees Gibson, Buck Leonard, Ray Dandridge, Satchel et al as the greatest NeL players.

Rating the pitchers of the ‘20s vs. those of the ‘40s will depend on a good answer to that question, as it will of course affect the ranking of, say, Leonard and Dandridge and maybe even Satchel and the other NeL stars yet to grace our stage.

Among the P, we can put this question another way. Are Hilton Smith, and Leon Day, and Ray Brown, and Satchel, and maybe Bill Byrd really all better than Dick Redding? Obviously the other part of the question is whether Redding really is the best of the earlier candidates.

Food for thought.

I am glad you brought this up because I am guilty when it comes to overlooking these guys. I do have Redding on my ballot and Mendez just off but I must admit that everyone else has dropped completely off my radar.

Some pitchers who do not score well in the index and are not discussed in previous posts:

William Bell got zero votes in the Cool Papas HoF voting and was a Holway all-star just one time (also GSA that one time, however). He appears to have pitched from 1923-32 or 1923-37 from two different sources, and according to the former source went 89-30, .750 which is the best W-L among about 20-25 pitchers on that xls. His WHIP of 8.8 is very competitive for that period as his K/9 of 3.6. In fact, not just competitive but better than his nearest contemporaries Andy Cooper and Nip Winters.

Frank Wickware pitched 1909-21 or 1911-21, and got just 7 and 8 percent votes in the Cool Papas voting. He was a Holway all-star one time and a GSA twice (?), but his WHIP and K/9 are an eye-popping 7.6 and 5.6. Compare that to his nearest contemporaries (all elected, except Redding, now the highest rated NeL P in HoM voting):

Wickware 7.6 5.6
R. Foster 9.2 4.2
Williams 7.2 3.3
Rogan 9.5 4.6
Redding 8.2 3

Jim LaMarque (1942-51) was a Holway all-star 3 times and GSA 2 times during the peak of Satchel and Ray Brown and Bill Byrd’s career.

Finally, Dave Brown has his own thread and there was a time I thought he was a serious candidate. Well, he was probably as dominant at his peak as any NeL pitcher (14-1, 2.42 in 1921. Also, 67-34 during his 1920-24 prime not as dominant as his ’21 season, of course, and not as good as Nip Winters 71-21 in 1924-26 or Jose Mendez 42-8 in 190811 (Cuba) or Mendez’ 40-14 overall in the NeL. But still one of the best primes I’ve seen so far. But he killed a man in a bar fight in 1925 and had to go underground, so his career is just 8 years. And this is not 8 “ML” years with some supporting years that might be converted to MLE or anything like that. This is everything there is, 8 years. So I am prepared to set Dave aside for the rest of this discussion.

These three cases illustrate a major problem for NeL pitchers--short careers. Not much shorter (if at all) than Dizzy Dean, of course, but 10ish years total, and there are a lot more of these 10ish year careers in the NeLs than the MLs. In a perfect world, we should know where these 10 year wonders came from and where they went, and why? And do some of them deserve X-credit for some of their pre- and post-(organized) NeL careers?

I especially wonder about Wickware, while it is entirely possible that LaMarque put in some MiL time after 1951.

My summary for today is that we already have threads on Redding, Mendez, Cooper, Winters, Dave Brown and Chet Brewer. My next step will be to look more closely at these 6 and as a start see if I can at least get these 6 into a rank order that makes sense. Having looked over the above and some other data, I can tell you it won't be easy. Redding and Mendez are getting votes. Are they the right guys?

I would not draw any real conclusions from the McMillan data, at least not just yet.

What disturbs me is the WHIP totals. About 1/2 those guys had fewer than 1 baserunner per inning, including a 7.6 and 7.9.

I ran a comparison vis-a-vis Redding. I searched for major league player seasons from 1911-1931 in which the player had between 2.5 and 3.5 strikeouts per 9 (.5 on either side of Redding's 3.0) and also had WHIP .90 to 1.0. For the WHIP range, I took Redding's reported H+W per 9 (8.2) increased by 5% (as a discount)and divided by 9 (for a traditional WHIP figure)...the range was +/- .05 of that.

Only 10 pitchers with win shares qualified under the search. Their average winning pct was .649. Redding's was only .560? Giving up less than a baserunner an inning? He must have played on some bad teams.

By the way, the searched set had approximately 1.37 pitching WS per win, .89 pitching WS per decision and .88 pitching WS per 9 IP.

Based on reported wins and decisions, that would give Redding between 95-109 WS based solely on his MacMillan record. Of course, the comparison set had a much better winning pct.

I ran the same search without the date limiter. That gave me 50 major league player seasons. Avg win pct? .640 again! 1.36 pitching WS per win, .87 pitching WS per decision and .85 pitching WS per 9 IP. Basically, the same numbers.

As far as I know, sunnyday2's list has identified the right pitchers to be considering, although I think there are a couple more pitchers, namely Bill Holland and Sam Streeter, who probably should be in the pool we're looking at.

Dr. Chaleeko is in the process of compiling Holway's pitching data in ways that will enable us to track the usage patterns of pitchers and to put their won-lost records into team contexts.

In addition to the obvious value of being able to see generally how the quality of teams affected pitcher w-l records, this data will, I hope, a) help identify the pitchers who were being used as top starters for longer periods of time and b) help indentify the effect of era on usage patterns.

That study isn't yet complete, but the good doctor is hard at work (I've been doing some consulting on the project), so I just wanted to let you know that more data that should prove helpful will be forthcoming.

Hopefully if Marc, Chris, Eric or whoever else finds a meritorious pitcher that we have overlooked (or failed to give their MLEs the proper weight prior to this thread), he won't be a victim of the timeline regardless.

To get some more data on the table, here are career w-l records, according to Holway, of the 20 pitchers sunnyday2 has identified, plus a few other notables.

Note that pitchers who played for league teams 1920-1931 had many more decisions per season against top black teams than pitchers who played for league teams in the 1932-1948, who in turn had many more than pitchers prior to 1920 or on non significant non-league teams throughout the era.

(#s in parentheses indicate rank all time in career wins and career wp, when either is in top 10)

Top Ten

1. Smokey Joe Williams, 1910-32, 125(9)-56, .691(7)
2. Big Bill Foster, 1924-39, 146(3)-66, .689(9)
3. Bullet Joe Rogan, 1920-28, 151(1)-65, .699(5)
4. Hilton Smith, 1937-47, 72-28, .720(3)
5. Leon Day, 1934-46, 68-30, .694(6)
6. Ray Brown, 1931-45, 146(3)-55, .726(2)
7. Rube Foster, 1904-14, 28-15, .651
8. Dick Redding, 1911-31, 89-63, .583
9. Satchel Paige, 1927-47, 147(2)-92, .630
10. Nip Winters, 1922-32, 126(8)-74, .630

11. Chet Brewer, 1923-46, 87-63, .589
12. Bill Byrd, 1931-48, 135(6)-93, .595
13. Jose Mendez, 1908-1925, 40-14 .741 (my total der. from Holway's seasonal data, wp would be #2 if listed)
14. Andy Cooper, 1921-38, 121(10)-54, .691(8)
15. Ted Trent, 1927-39, 109-56, .661

(big drop-off)

16. Max Manning, 1939-49, 70-32, .686
17. Leroy Matlock, 1929-38, 77-30, .757(1)
18. John Donaldson no data
19. Booker McDaniel, no data
20. Dick Whitworth, no data

Other notables
William Bell, 1923-36, 141(5)-57, .712(4)
Bill Holland, 1920-40, 127(7)-99, .562
Sam Streeter, 1921-36, 117-75, .568
Roosevelt Davis, 1924-45, 118(10)-77, .599
Dave Brown, 1920-24, 69-34, .663

What disturbs me is the WHIP totals. About 1/2 those guys had fewer than 1 baserunner per inning, including a 7.6 and 7.9.

I ran a comparison vis-a-vis Redding. I searched for major league player seasons from 1911-1931 in which the player had between 2.5 and 3.5 strikeouts per 9 (.5 on either side of Redding's 3.0) and also had WHIP .90 to 1.0. For the WHIP range, I took Redding's reported H+W per 9 (8.2) increased by 5% (as a discount)and divided by 9 (for a traditional WHIP figure)...the range was +/- .05 of that.

The Macmillan statistics are badly flawed when it comes to per-inning rates for pitchers; I believe this is frequently true of Holway, too. Strikeouts and walks, in particular, are often way too low. I'm not always certain why, since most of the time these data are readily available. Anyway, compare the Macmillan's line for Dick Redding's 1921 with what I've compiled:

Mac: 81 K in 213 IP, 3.42 per 9 inn.
Me: 120 K in 198.7 IP, 5.44 per 9 inn.

For Bullet Rogan:
Mac: 68 K, 172 IP, 3.56
Me: 118 K, 200.7 IP, 5.29

Reuben Currie:
Mac: 57 K, 140 IP, 3.66
Me: 97 K, 189 IP, 4.62

Bill Drake:
Mac: 123 K, 231 IP, 4.79
Me: 117 K, 195.3, 5.39

Dave Brown:
Mac: 88 K, 148 IP, 5.35
Me: 96 K, 137.3 IP, 6.29

Phil Cockrell:
Mac: 34 K, 87 IP, 3.52
Me: 63 K, 106.3 IP, 5.33

This isn't systematic, just the first people who came to mind...maybe I'll take a look at hits and walks, too.

Several of you have made the point, which I endorse, that some (or most) of the data posted here is questionable. By posting it, I do not mean to endorse it. It is what it is, which is: What we've got to work with.

Along with WHIPs and K/9s looking "funny," to me the biggest question is Dick Redding's decisions. His prime having been in the 1920s and having been active for 20 years, he should have a lot of decisions, but he does not. So any measure based on wins will see Redding as a weak candidate.

Re. his W-L, however, that is understandable. The data I have seen shows that he did indeed play for bad teams as a generalization. His WAT are pretty good.

Aside from Redding, however, the numbers of decisions and (to some degree) the wins and W-L shown by Chris (Holway) in #11 generally feel "right." That would suggest that the guys who are top ten on both wins and W-L pct. would seem to beg for very serious consideration. And yet, they are not necessarily the guys you'd think:

Ray Brown
Andy Cooper
William Bell (!!)

In summary, one thing I think I've learned already is:Redding, #1 among NeL pitchers in our voting at the moment, is clearly more of a career choice. And confirming whether Redding really had the most career value is job 1. No way does the data support that, other than the fact that he was active for 20 years. And if not Redding, then who?

If OTOH you are a peak voter, determining who really had the best peak would be job 1. It looks like Mendez to me (for now) but Nip Winters also has a case.

But in truth, it still seems like who *know* very very little about all of this.

Another pitcher who seems to fit the 10-and-out mold is Rats Henderson, who, depending on our source, was having big seasons in the mid 1920s before his arm came up lame late in the decade.

====

For a status report on our project...to be fair, Chris has underplayed his role. I'm compiling the data so Chris can figure out what to do with it!

Anyway, just so everyone knows what I'm up to, I'm compiling Holway's W-L data for each league, team, pitcher into an excel file for 1920-1948. [If anyone already has this data spreadsheated, please, please, please forward it to me. : ) ]. We're looking at pct of team's decisions for a typical NgL team's top few pitching slots to see how usage patterns differed from MLB and to see how this could impact MLEs. We're also recording winning pct and WAT; though their values don't correlate perfectly with effectiveness, it's better than nothing.

Anyway, I'm up to 1928 at this point, and I'm hoping to finish the compiling within a fortnight.

We're using Holway's numbers at this point, but if Gary or Gadfly or KJOK would be willing or able to share their yearbooks for 1921, 1923, 1928, or any other years that have been referenced in the various discussion threads, it would help improve the accuracy of our data tremendously.

Along with WHIPs and K/9s looking "funny," to me the biggest question is Dick Redding's decisions. His prime having been in the 1920s and having been active for 20 years, he should have a lot of decisions, but he does not.

Dick Redding's prime was more in the teens than in the 1920s: he had some great early years 1911-1914 mixed with some weaker ones, and then he was generally strong from 1915-1922 or so. He also has few decisions because, in the 1920s, he never pitched for teams that had a strong presence in either of the major leagues.

Ray Brown
Andy Cooper
William Bell (!!)

It will be very helpful to have wins-above-team data for these guys, because all three (especially Bell) pitched for good teams for a long time.

Of these three, I'm most impressed right now with Brown, because he put up his totals without having pitched in the decision-rich 1920s at all, and, if I recall correctly, his black/gray ink totals are more impressive. On the other hand, it was easier to get ink in the smaller leagues (and I believe somewhat weaker competition) 1937-1946 than during the prime years of the NNL and ECL and in the one-league years of the early 1930s.

Still by analogy, we have been very hard on Mackey and Bell. Their numbers don't seem to justify their reputation. Redding also seems to lack the numbers other than "seasons." It is true, of course, that he pitched for bad teams and so W-L is unfair to Redding.

That is the fundamental challenge here, isn't it? W-L is almost the only data here that we have confidence in. Ouch.

Here's another data point: Black and Gray Ink Totals, derived from Holway's League Leaders lists

Caveats: Completeness of lists varies by era -- sometimes top 1-2 listed, usually top 5, sometimes K leaders or TRA leaders not included at all. Data selected by Holway favors certain types of pitchers

Calculation Method:
Pitchers 4 pts for wins, TRA/ERA, K. 3 pts for winning%.

Pitcher Totals – Black Ink top 20

1. Satchel Paige 50
2. Bill Foster 49
3. Dick Redding 44
4. Joe Williams 35
4. Ray Brown 35
6. Hilton Smith 30
7. Bill Byrd 27
8. Joe Rogan 23
8. Nip Winters 23
10. Gentry Jessup 20
11. Dizzy Dismukes 16
11. Ted Trent 16
11. Leon Day 16
11. Jim Lamarque 16
15. Leroy Matlock 15
16. Connie Rector 14
17. Frank Wickware 12
17. Jose Mendez 12
17. Bill Lindsay 12
17. Bill Drake 12
17. Sug Cornelius 12
17. Dan Bankhead 12

Other players in the consideration set

23. William Bell 11
23. Dave Brown 11
23. Bill Holland 11
23. Max Manning 11
28. Chet Brewer 10
29. Dick Whitworth 8
36. Sam Streeter 7
42. Rube Foster 4
42. Andy Cooper 4
62. Roosevelt Davis 3
70. John Donaldson 0
Booker McDaniel – no data


Pitcher Totals Gray Ink Top 20

1. Joe Williams 130
2. Ray Brown 122
3. Satchel Paige 114
4. Bill Byrd 113
5. Joe Rogan 102
6. Bill Foster 97
7. Hilton Smith 84
8. Dick Redding 78
9. Leon Day 72
10. Ted Trent 68
11. William Bell 67
12. Eugene Bremer 66
13. Sug Cornelius 65
14. Andy Cooper 64
15. Phil Cockrell 61
16. Nip Winters 57
17. Bill Holland 54
18. Leroy Matlock 51
19. Dave Brown 48
19. Max Manning 48

Other players in the consideration set
21. Chet Brewer 46
22. Sam Streeter 45
29. Frank Wickware 39
33. Jim Lamarque 36
34. Dick Whitworth 35
34. Roosevelt Davis 35
40. Rube Foster 31
50. Jose Mendez 23
92. John Donaldson 4
Booker McDaniel – no data

Chris, interesting to say the least.

Ks is the only stat that is not team dependent, yet Ks does not nec. correlate with effectiveness (I say that not wishing to start a debate).

The one that I would like to know more about, anyway, is ERA/TRA. Could you post a list of those specific leaders?

But having said that...and noting that Gray is a fairer number than Black...

This is poiwerful evidence for R. Brown, Byrd, H. Smith, Redding and Day.

OTOH can you comment on some of the older guys like Cooper and Winters. Are they particularly disadvantaged by the years for which leaders (some leaders) are not listed?

To be fair about Ray Brown, IIRC, he was racking up wins for a dynastic Hilldale team throughout the late 30s and into the 40s. I think he's probably well deserving of his ranking as a top five or top ten NgL pitcher, but I think his WAT will be very instructive.

I'll get the TRA seasonal leaders posted this evening.

Nip Winters is, I believe, significantly disadvantaged here because he pitched in the ECL, for which the pitching stats especially are less well-reported. Here's the league-leader data _missing_ from the East 1922-28 (his prime)

1922 -- K
1923 -- K
1924 -- TRA, K
1925 -- all listed (Winters leads in K by a wide margin)
1926 -- K
1927 -- K
1928 -- TRA short-listed, K short-listed

I'd say that Winters loses at least 20 points of gray ink and probably 4 or 8 points of black ink from lack of reporting.

There are isolated lack of reporting elsewhere, but Winters is affected to an unusual degree, I think.

Both Cooper and Brewer were playing outside the leagues for a considerable period of time, esp. Brewer. However, while in the league, Cooper almost always fell behind Joe Rogan or some other dominant pitcher during the 1920s -- he was often among the leaders but perhaps only once the best pitcher, and that is accurately reflected in his low black ink score.

Byrd, Brown, and Smith played in the NeL straight through the MeL raiding years and WWII.

Day lost time to military service in WWII.

As I think about it, almost every player needs to have some caveat or other applied . . .

I'll try to do a bit of commentary on each in the next day or two.

Seasonal Total Run Average (TRA) Leaders -- Western Teams/Leagues, 1912-1932, 1937-1948

Since this includes both earned and unearned runs, there's still a strong team element here, as well as a big park factor. I'll highlight that a bit by giving the team of each leading pitcher.

1912 Bill Lindsey 2.07 CHI
1913 --
1914 Horace Jenkins 2.39 CHI
1915 Dizzy Dismukes 2.59 IND
1916 Frank Wickware 3.18 CHI
1917 Dick Redding 1.57 CHI
1918 Dick Whitworth 2.50 CHI
1919 Jose Mendez 2.61 DET
1920 Dave Brown 2.71 CHI
1921 Jack Marshall 1.91 CHI
1922 Dave Brown 3.04 CHI
1923 Jose Mendez 1.89 KC
1924 Juan Padrone 2.83 CHI
1925 Big Bill (Plunk) Drake 1.98 KC
1926 Big Bill Foster 2.03 CHI
1927 William Bell 2.27 KC
1928 Willie Powell 2.78 CHI
1929 Chet Brewer 2.86 KC
1930 Double Duty Radcliffe 2.80 STL
1931 Webster McDonald 1.78 CHI
1932 Putt Powell 1.99 CHI

1937 Hilton Smith 1.85 KC (or Ted Trent, 2.08 CHI -- Holway inconsistent here)
1938 Double Duty Radcliffe 2.31 MEM
1939 Smoky Owens 1.50 CLE
1940 Jack Matchett 1.32 KC
1941 Dan Bankhead 0.96 BIR
1942 Booker McDaniel 1.76 KC
1943 Gentry Jessup 1.99 CHI
1944 George Jefferson 1.99 CLE
1945 Jim LaMarque 2.00 KC
1946 Satchel Paige 1.20 KC
1947 Hilton Smith 2.00 KC
1948 Jim LaMarque 1.96 KC

Seasonal TRA Leaders, Eastern Teams/Leagues, 1911-1946

1911 Jose Mendez 3.65 CUB
1912 Frank Wickware 1.00 BKN
1913 Joe Williams 3.81 NY LIN
1914 --
1915 Dick Redding 2.55 NY Stars
1916 Bombin Pedroso 1.71 NY LIN
1917 Joe Williams 3.22 NY LIN
1918 Joe Williams 2.23 NY LIN
1919 Dick Redding 1.67 AC/BKN
1920 Dick Redding 3.87 BKN
1921 Connie Rector 2.76 HILL
1922 Dick Redding 1.65 AC
1923 Nip Winters 3.03 HILL
1924 --
1925 Joe Strong 3.08 BAL
1926 Zip Campbell 2.00 HILL
1927 Bob McClure 2.47 BAL
1928 Rats Henderson 3.13 AC
1929 Phil Cockrell 2.25 HILL
1930 Laymon Yokely 2.01 BAL
1931 Lefty Williams 2.05 HOM
1932 Harry Salmon 2.62 DET/PGH/HOME
1933 Ray Brown 2.87 HOM
1934 Satchel Paige 1.73 PGH
1935 Leroy Matlock 2.04 PGH
1936 --
1937 Roy Welmaker 1.67 HOM
1938 Ray Brown 2.25 HOM
1939 Jesse Brown 2.01 NWK (or Max Manning, 0.93 NWK -- Holway is inconsistent here)
1940 Ray Brown 2.27 HOM
1941 Ray Brown 1.77 (or Bill Byrd 1.97 NWK -- Holway is inconsistent here)
1942 Roy Parlow 1.36 HOM
1943 Johnny Wright 2.04 HOM
1944 -- (or Ray Brown 2.41 HOM -- Holway is inconsistent here)
1945 Bill Ricks 1.87 PHI
1946 Lemuel Hooker 2.12 NWK

Chris,

As you suggested, it's not surprising that vitually all the west leaders come from CAG or KC, teams that were dominant in the NNL.

And in the East it's the same with the gents from the dominant Hilldale, Pittsburgh, then Homestead teams.

It's partly a chicken-egg thing: these teams were well-managed and (relatively) wealthy, so they could afford top talent, but given that a number of pitchers of otherwise little reputation or lasting success win TRA titles with these teams, it's clear that fielding support and/or park factors had a significant role as well.

Differential usage of pitchers on a single team (see Bill Foster thread for evidence of this) also had significant, but largely undocumented, effects.

I don't know if this is constructive, but perhaps the pitchers should be seperated into bulk and peak performers.

In my opinion, Redding is currently the top bulk or career performer, though I don't think his peak was very shabby either. Ray Brown, when he's eligible, will be close behind.

As far as peak goes, Mendez and maybe Donaldson (except for Slim Jones, but that is just for one year, 1934) are at the top of my list, though Leon Day will be up there too.

On looking back over this thread, the one other thing that strikes me is the lack of Latins like Ramon Bragana, Manuel Garcia, and Oscar Levis.

Gadfly,

Interesting you mention the Latino pitchers. The thing that strikes me as I'm compiling team-by-team data is uniformly behind the curve the Cuban Stars teams were in terms of pitcher usage. Virtually every single season, they used fewer (and often many fewer) pitchers than any other team in their league. This is true for both the version of the club in the ECL/ANL/East and the NNL.

Whereas most clubs started moving from staffs of 5-8 to 7-10 in the early 1920s, the Cuban Stars teams steadfastly held to 4-8 pitchers, usually about 5 or 6. I think this may have put them at a competitive disadvantage, which is reflected by their usually poor showings in the league standings.

Does anyone know any specific reason why the Cuban Stars (in either league) would have been slower to expand their pitching staff? Did they have some kind of financial or travel/visa-based restrictions or something that other teams didn't have?

Perhaps it's a related phenomenon, but the Cuban Stars also have much more evenly distributed decisions, generally, than the other NeL teams. At least that's been my impression. Dr. Chaleeko's study should show that one way or the other.

Of the three pitchers gadfly mentioned, Oscar Levis is the only one who _appears_ to have enjoyed notable success in the NeL. He has black/gray ink of 0/17. Neither of the other two appear on Holway's leaderboards, but since the Cubans were seldom among the top teams in the league, that isn't terribly surprising.

I don't have a career w-l from Holway for Levis, but I could work one out fairly easily.

Regarding the dispersion of decisions for Cuban teams, here's what I've got through 1931.

CBSW = cuban stars west (NNL)
CBSE = cuban stars east (ECL/ANL/or independent)
CBH = cuban house of david

Source = Holway

Spelling = potentially unreliable

Pitchers ranked by % of team decisions

1920 cbsw
LeBlanc, Julio___38%
Hernandez, Jose__33%
Valdes, Tony_____23%
Baro, Bernardo___02%

1921 cbsw
leBlanci, Julio__42%
Suarez, Cheche___32%
Boada, lucas_____23%
Cueto, Manolo____04%

1922 cbsw
Boada, Lucas_______33%
silva, pedro_______22%
pedroso, bombin____22%
Rodriquez, Conrado_19%
pareda, pastor_____02%
leblanc, julio_____02%

1923 cbsw
Dibut, Pedro_______33%
Boada, Lucas_______31%
Padron, Luis_______29%
Montalvo, Estaban__04%
Pellas_____________02%

1923 cbse
Levis, Oscar_______32%
Fabre, isidro______20%
mirabal, juanelo___20%
lopez, vidal_______20%
padrone, juan______04%
hernandez__________04%

1924 cbsw
pedroso, bombin____25%
salazar, lazaro____21%
martinez, pasquel__21%
boada, lucas_______19%
alvarez, raul______06%
pastoria, jesus____04%
montalvo, estaban__04%

1924 cbse
mirabal, juanelo___33%
levis, oscar_______27%
fabre, isidro______13%
estrada, oscar_____12%
dihigo, martin_____10%
calderin___________04%
lopez______________02%

1925 cbsw
gomez, david_______31%
alvarez, raul______17%
dominguez__________17%
eckelson___________17%
montalvo, estaban__15%
almas______________04%

1925 cbse__________29%
levis, oscar_______21%
dihigo, martin_____21%
mirabal, juanelo___13%
fabre, isidro______08%
barao, bernardo____08%
gomez, sihgo_______06%
cline______________02%

1926 cbsw
diaz, yo yo________34%
gomez, david_______25%
rosell, basilio____23%
pedemonte, mario___18%

1926 cbse
levis, oscar_______30%
mirabal, juanelo___20%
san, eli___________15%
dihigo, martin_____10%
baro, bernardo_____10%
pedrosos, bombin___08%
fabre, isidro______08%
mesa, champion_____00%

1927 cbsw
diaz, yo yo________26%
rosselle, basilio__26%
gomez, david_______22%
garcia, manuel_____17%
alonso, rogelio____09%

1927 cbse
san ,eli___________37%
levis, oscar_______25%
fabre, isidro______12%
mirabal, juanelo___08%
alvarez, raul______08%
dihigo, matin______04%
rodriguez, conrado_04%
lau________________02%
baro, bernardo_____02%

1928 cbsw
diaz, yo-yo________34%
roselle, basilio___28%
garcia, cocaina____19%
alonso, rogelio____10%
martni, jose_______09%

1928 cbse (not enough data, only four reported decisions in Holway)

1929 cbsw
diaz, yo yo________31%
galvez, cuneo______27%
lorenzo, jesus_____20%
molina, agustin____10%
lopez, vidal_______08%
roque, battling____02%
alonzo, regelio____02%

1929 cbse
rossell, basilio___21%
levis, oscar_______19%
grier, red_________14%
gisentaner, willie_14%
sijo_______________12%
fabre, isidro______12%
mirabal, juanelo___07%

1930 cbsw
diaz yoyo__________34%
tiant, luis________34%
lorenzo, jesus_____21%
molina, agustin____11%

1930 cbse (not enough data reported in Holway)

1931 chd
tiant, luis________34%
richardson, henry__22%
stevens, frank_____16%
brown, barrney_____09%
alvarez, raul______09%
estrada, oscar_____03%
fabre, isidro______03%
dixon, johnny bob__03%

1931 cbse
alvarez, raul______26%
tiant, luis________17%
richradson, henry__17%
brown, barney______13%
garcia, cocaina____09%
stevenes, frank____09%
estrada, oscar_____04%
fabre, isidro______04%

Oscar Levis Data

I spent an interesting hour analyzing Oscar Levis:

Seasonal Data from Holway

1921 0-1 Cuban Stars (East) team 12-26, -0.32 WAT
1922 0-2 CSE, team 1-3 #1 in team decisions, -1.00 WAT
1923 6-2 CSE, team 16-9, #1 in team decisions, gray ink in wp, +1.29 WAT
1924 5-9 CSE, team 16-36, #2 in team decisions, +0.95 WAT
1925 11-4 CSE, team 22-30, #1 in team decisions, +6.54 WAT
1926 9-3 CSE, team 23-17, #1 in team decisions, gray ink in wins, wp, tra, +3.00 WAT
1927 9-4 CSE, team 26-26, #2 in team decisions, gray in in wp, +3.33 WAT
1928 no data
1929 3-5 CSE, team 16-26, #3 in team decisions, -0.06 WAT
1930 3-4 Hilldale, team 8-16, #1 in team decisions, +0.94 WAT
1931 8-7 Phil Stars, team 45-16, #1 in team decisions (tie), -4.06 WAT
1932 no data
1933 no data
1934 no data, listed with Cuban Stars, but no pitching decisions survive for team


In Cuba, from Holway
1922 8-9
1924 9-7
1925 6-5
1926 3-1
1927 7-2

NeL Career Statistics
54-41, .568
10.61 WAT

Peak Statistics
1925-27, 29-11, .725
12.87 WAT for a team that was, cumulatively, 71-73, 42-62 without Levis.

Levis’s record, while it doesn’t suggest that he is ballot-worthy or even top 50 material, though if there were evidence of a strong Cuban career accompanying the NeL career, he’d require a closer look, is instructive in a number of ways.

First, it reveals that he was surely one of the top pitchers in the NeL from 1925-27 and a good pitcher from 1923-1930.

Second, it shows the limitations of Holway’s statistics. Because the Cuban Stars a) didn’t play as many league games as other teams, b) distributed decisions fairly evenly, and c) were never all that good, Levis only makes a slight mark on the Black/Gray Ink register and doesn’t total up enough career wins to catch Holway’s attention (or the attention of the Macmillan editors – he’s not listed there). His 1925 season is frankly spectacular, and his 1926 and 1927 seasons are very very good, yet he got no Ink at all for 1925 and not all that much for 1926-27.

If we’re going to make sure that we’re finding and honoring the best NeL pitchers, making sure we’re not missing stretches of excellence like that shown by Oscar Levis will be crucial. Not that he’s a HoMer, but if, say, Chet Brewer, had put up a stretch like this pitching for mediocre to poor teams in the lightly documented 1930s following his run with the Monarchs in the 1920s, he’d have the makings of a real HoM case. It wouldn’t surprise me for a fuller study of NeL pitchers to turn up something of that sort.

At the very least, studying this next tier of pitchers will help us to identify more surely when somebody really rises above that level into serious contention.

P.S. -- Dr. Chaleeko, there's something weird with the 1925 cbse data.

Doc-

The Cuban Stars generally came to the States with smaller rosters than the other Negro League teams. Of course, because of the distances to Latin America for reinforcements, they also had trouble expanding or supplementing their rosters due to injuries or whatever too.

Just from research, I have always gotten the impression that the Cuban clubs really emphasised versatility because of this (Dihigo being the best, almost ridiculous, example for that), most of the Cuban players played all over the place.

This probaly was also behind Chris' observation about the uniformity of the Cubans' decisions.

I don't think that they especially had travel or visa problems, other than simply distance. But there were financial considerations, especially when the club operated co-op (i.e. less players means a bigger cut).

As for the Cuban club's usually poor showings in the Negro Leagues, the main cause seems to have been simply financial. The Cubans were mostly traveling clubs without a permanent home base and financially disadvantaged because of this.

The best Cuban talent usually played for other Negro League teams or stayed in Latin America and played there. Very rarely was the best Cuban-Latin talent concentrated in the Cuban Negro League teams.

One exception to that rule was the New York Cuban teams of 1935 and 1936. Pompez had a park and the money and he fielded a hell of a team.

Two of the pitchers mentioned above are both proof of this. Manuel Garcia was a great great pitcher - in Venezuela. Ramon Bragana was a great great pitcher - in Mexico.

Oscar Levis (real name Levy) is probably the oddest of these guys. He was from Panama but probably born in Jamaica. He was the greatest pitcher in Panama from 1911 to 1918 and came to the States in 1919. After playing semi-pro ball around NY from 1919 to 1921, he was a fantastic pitcher in the States and especially Cuba in the 1920s.

But he is simply forgotten now.

This is completely off the point, but all three of these guys (Levis, Garcia, and Bragana) could really hit, for a pitcher, too.

Thanks for the catch, the correct 1925 cbse data should read this way

1925 cbse
levis, oscar______29%
dihigo, martin____21%
mirabal, juanelo__21%
fabre, isidro_____13%
baro, bernardo____08%
gomez, sihgo______06%
cline_____________02%

Thanks for the catch, the correct 1925 cbse data should read this way

1925 cbse
levis, oscar______29%
dihigo, martin____21%
mirabal, juanelo__21%
fabre, isidro_____13%
baro, bernardo____08%
gomez, sihgo______06%
cline_____________02%

A guy I'm very insterested to learn more about is Harry Salmon. He's got a fantastic run of seasons by WAT beginning around 1923. His WAT totals from 1923 through 1931 rival any pitcher in any of the Negro Leagues during that same period. I was doing some preliminary WAT totals by hand this afternoon for that period, and this is what came out [in other words, subject to much revision when I get more data inputted and computed]:

NAME___________WAT 1920-1931*
=============================
Bill Foster____21.0
Nip Winters____20.8
Harry Salmon___20.4
Andy Cooper____20.2
Satchel Paige__19.5
William Bell___16.0
*Does not include eastern teams 1920-1922.

Some notes about this.
1) Who is Harry Salmon?!?!?!?!?!?!

2) Winters had 22.1 WAT in his best six-year stretch, while most of the rest took much longer to accumulate that total.

3) Paige did it in five years from 1927-1931---yeah, he's that good.

4) Connie Rector follows close after this list around 14-15 WAT. Rats Henderson has about 12, and Levis checks in at 11.5 or so. Also Dave Brown topped ten WAT from 1920-1925 when his career went poof. Rogan had "only" 9.1 WAT, however, his total is deflated by one really bad WAT season (1923) when he went 20-19 for a KC team that was 58-30 without him. That's the path to -5.7 WAT.

I stated that the New York Cubans of 1935 and 1936 were a hell of a team, so I went back to check:

NNL PUBLISHED LEAGUE STANDINGS

YEAR-1ST HALF-2ND HALF-TOT-PCT
1935 (10-16) (20-07) 30-23 .566
1936 (09-11) (13-12) 22-23 .489
BOTH (19-27) (33-19) 52-46 .531

They weren't so good in the first half of 1935 as Pompez got his talent together after being out of baseball since 1929.

The team was awesome in the second half of 1935.

In 1936, the Cubans struggled as Pompez was distracted by his legal problems. Of course, the Cubans withdrew from the NNL in 1937 when Pompez fled the country.

Of course, the Negro League talent in the NNL of 1935 and 1936 was extremely concentrated; but a better statement would have been that the New York Cubans were briefly an awesome team.

As for the Cuban club's usually poor showings in the Negro Leagues, the main cause seems to have been simply financial. The Cubans were mostly traveling clubs without a permanent home base and financially disadvantaged because of this.

A side note on something I've been working on for a while: Negro League teams generally enjoyed huge home field advantages, which I strongly suspect had to with the fact that home teams usually hired their own umpires. Since the Cuban teams usually didn't use a home field, they rarely hired the umpires, and suffered disproportionately for this.

Here are some data from my park factor project for 1921 (though uncorrected and not updated with the latest box score additions). Still, the pattern is pretty clear:

In 1921, the NeL home-team winning pct. was .642.

The Chicago American Giants hit .252 on the road but only .222 in Schorling Park, dropping 30 points. But opponents hit .291 on the road--and .192 in Chicago, a staggering drop of 99 points.

The St. Louis Giants were outhit .305-.261 in Giants' road games, but outhit opponents at home .299-.258.

The Kansas City Monarchs were barely outhit on the road .242-.241, but outhit opponents at home .303-.251.

The Cincinnati Cuban Stars (this happens to be the only year I'm aware of when the western Cubans used a home field) were outhit on the road .268-.245, but outhit opponents at home .265-.257.

The Columbus Buckeyes were outhit on the road .249-.224, but outhit opponents at home .272-.266.

The Detroit Stars were outhit on the road .291-.248, but outhit opponents at home .275-.251.

The Indianapolis ABCs were outhit on the road .269-.265, but outhit opponents at home .271-.261.

The Chicago Giants were a road team. They were easily the worst team in the league, at 13-38-2, but Detroit actually had a worse road record (11-24) and Columbus's road record was comparable (12-34).

Every team in the league with a home field was over .500 at home.

Rogan had "only" 9.1 WAT, however, his total is deflated by one really bad WAT season (1923) when he went 20-19 for a KC team that was 58-30 without him. That's the path to -5.7 WAT.

Holway is way off on this. Rogan really went 16-11 for a KC team that was 61-37 (his 16 wins led the league, btw). He's way off for the whole team; if you notice, his individual W-L records for the Monarchs add up to 78-49 (!), which would be the longest league season on record in the NeL--but he's got them at 57-33 in the standings, much closer to reality. He's got Currie at 23-11 (really 15-9), Mendez at 15-6 (really 12-4), Drake 15-9 (really 12-10). I'm guessing the explanation is that he either double-counted some games, or accidentally added in some games from another season.

Dr. Chaleeko,

These are my records for the Cuban Stars (W) in 1921:

LeBlanc 15-9
Suarez 5-12
Boada 6-8
Manela 4-7
Herrera 0-1
TEAM 30-37-2

For the 1928 Cuban Stars (E)

San 3-5
Mirabal 4-3
Levis 1-3
Ruiz 0-2
Fabre 0-2
Bragana 0-3
TEAM 8-18-3

The 1928 Cuban Stars (W)

Diaz 3-14
Rosell 5-9
Garcia 1-7
Martinez 1-2
Alonso 1-3
Montalvo 0-1
TEAM 11-36

And for good measure, the 1916 Cuban Stars (W):

J. Padron 6-10
Junco 8-6
Pedroso 1-7
Campos 0-2
Torriente 0-2
TEAM 15-27

Juan Padron may have been the best pitcher in the west that year, actually, despite his record. He struck out 107 in 132.3 innings, easily the most in the west (Wickware was second with 73 in 141 innings), and his TRA was 2.99, second only to Dick Whitworth (2.50), who played for Chicago and only pitched 86.3 innings. Padron was also borrowed by the Am Gts for one game, and tossed a shutout against the Lincoln Stars--and this isn't counted in his stats, as I don't have a box score for it.

And I forgot the 1923 Cuban Stars (W):

Boada 4-13
Dibut 7-8
J. Padron 7-8
Pedroso 5-3
Fernandez 1-2
Montalvo 3-0
Pellas 0-1
TEAM 27-35

Gary

(re post #38),

Thanks SO much for the info! To be sure that I've got the 1923 Monarchs correct, I'm wondering if you could fill in a couple of quick details. With your info the picture looks like this:

Rogan 16-11
Currie 15-9
Mendez 12-4
Drake 12-10
=============
Total 55-34

Team dec 61-37

Which leaves 6 wins and 3 losses to be filled in.

Holway has these others getting decisions for KC:

bell, william (3-1)
gisentaner, willie (2-1)
cooper, army (0-1)
crawford, sam (0-1)
================
Total 5-4

So Holway's got the total decisions correct, but he's one off on which side of the ledger they go.

Do you know what the correct disbursement of the remaining decisions is?

Thank you!

For accuracy's sake, once I recalculated Rogan's WAT with Gary's new data, he jumps from 9.1 to 14.1.

Gary,

Re post #39

Wow! Thank you so much, this is really helpful, and it's adding a lot of decisions to the mix that should help make the dataset more robust.

Just tying up a quick loose end:

For the 1921 cbsw
Holway lists Manolo Cueto as 0-2, but he's not on your list for that season. Was Holway confusing him with Manela whom you list as 4-7?

Thanks again!

Doc,

The remainder of the '21 Monarchs staff, from Patrick Rock:

W. Bell 3-1
Gisentaner 2-1
Crawford 1-1

About Cueto in '21: well, he's Manuel Cueto, a Cuban infielder who played in the majors. But to my knowledge the name "Cueto" never appears in a western Cuban Stars box score in 1921; the pitcher's name is usually "Manela," "Manella," or occasionally "Manolo." Jorge Figueredo lists a "C. Manela" who pitched in Cuba around the same time, so my assumption is it's that guy.

In 1921 Manuel Cueto spent most of the season with the Tesreau Bears, a NY-area white semipro team that played extensively against NeL teams.

Sorry, I meant the 1923 Monarchs staff, not 1921.

Btw, Patrick doesn't list a Cooper as pitching or playing for KC in 1923. A pitcher named Coley appeared for both Toledo and KC, but didn't have a decision with KC.

jmurphy post3
Here are the top rated NeL pitchers according to a simple index (see post #2)
early pitchers—e.g. Rube Foster—are underrated by this method.
...
1. Smokey Joe Williams
2. Big Bill Foster
3. Bullet Joe Rogan
4. Hilton Smith ....eligible 1954?
5. Leon Day .........eligible 1960?
6. Ray Brown ........eligible 1955?
7. Rube Foster
8. Dick Redding
9. Satchel Paige ...eligible 1959?
10. Nip Winters
..
This thread is good stuff; I needed to sort out the NeL hurlers in one spot.
We've elected Smokey Joe, Bullet Joe, and both Fosters. We will honor Satchel, which makes 5 (plus a bit of Dihigo).
While they aren't supposed to be competing against each other, I can't help but be interested in how Redding will look next to Ray Brown and Hilton Smith, about whom we should get more info in the next month.

Thanks again Gary!

Great stuff, though it is too much for me to feel like any of it is actionable just yet. So I think it is very helpful to consider Gad's suggestion (#25) that we get it square in our heads about which of these are career picks and which are peak picks. (I mentioned the same thing in passing in #13.)

And, as Gad says, it's very true that Redding is (not just "a" but) THE career candidate. And Mendez is (not just "a" but) THE peak candidate. I say this in reference to our actual voting, where Redding and Mendez are the only two NeL backlog pitchers getting any votes at all.

So, to narrow the questions a bit maybe therefore to hasten a resolution: As a practical matter the questions are:

• Is Redding really THE best career NeL pitcher available?

• Is Mendez really THE best peak NeL pitcher available? (Of course, his case is somewhat complicated by the fact that his peak actually occurred in the Cuban League, but conceptually I have no trouble with that. After all, there is pretty solid evidence that the Cuban League was superior to the NeL during that peak.)

So let's look at each of these in turn, using various surrogates as measures for career and peak values. These lists are limited to the already eligible + Bill Byrd who joins us in 1953.

CAREER

HoF voting (1st half of index, post #3): Brewer, Redding, Mendez, Byrd

Wins (post #11): Bell, Byrd, Holland, Winters, Cooper

W-L (post #11): Matlock, Bell, Cooper

Grey Ink (post #17): Byrd, Redding, Trent, Bell

WAT (not previously posted and not complete, only the pitchers mentioned were tested as far as i know): Cooper 21 Redding 20 Salmon ~20 Bell ~16 Winters 15

PEAK

All-star, MVP, etc., awards (2nd half of index, post #3): Winters, Cooper, Trent, Redding, Byrd

Black ink (post #17): Redding, Byrd, Winters

ERA leaders (post #21-22/I realize these are already in the Black ink): Redding 4, Mendez 3, D. Brown, Wickware 2 each

Putting all of this back together (noting again that these are all just surrogate measures), I would just note that Byrd, Redding and Winters are on both lists more than once, while Bell has the most mentions on the career list.

So Redding certainly seems to be at parity, at a minimum. Nobody can clearly knock him off his perch as the career candidate. Mendez, OTOH, is not well served by these particular numbers, but he pitched very early and a lot of his value was in Cuba. He is the tougher case. As of today I would expand my list of NeL pitchers who ought to be getting consideration from just the top two (below) to include some others:

1. Redding--on career and peak lists
2. Mendez--clearly peak
3. Byrd--on both lists
4. Winters--on both lists
5. Bell--career
6. Cooper--career
7. Brewer--career

But I (and I'm sure everybody) still needs to get some kind of mental image of these pitchers before voting for Redding or Mendez (if you're not already) or switching to somebody else (if you are) or voting for any of them (if you're not).

And of course it is premature to eliminate some others from contention. But this, in any event, is an attempt to summarize where we are.

Gadfly wrote:

On looking back over this thread, the one other thing that strikes me is the lack of Latins like Ramon Bragana, Manuel Garcia, and Oscar Levis.

I suggest adding Luis Tiant to this list.

Robert Griffith and Andrew Porter, both featured in Gary A.'s list of successful pitchers in the California League, look like they should be added to the consideration set for this thread.

Neither of these pitchers appeared in the lists of NeL candidates I compiled. Griffith will be eligible in 1959, Porter in 1956.

Harry Salmon, btw, is eligible now, and has been since 1941.

Griffith and Porter were both good pitchers for bad teams (as was Salmon), both spent time in Mexico (Porter spent five seasons there), both had the last part of their careers disrupted by the collapse of the NeL after integration, and Griffith missed time due to World War II.

Chris, is Andrew Porter the fellow Holway calls Pullman Porter?

I believe that Andrew Porter = Pullman Porter.

One pitcher I'm trying to find some more info on is Ted Trent. He's starting to look like the "Bert Blyleven" of the Negro Leagues (with a shorter career, of course) - a highly effective pitcher that, due to parks played in and team's played for, has never received a lot of publicity as a great pitcher. Plus, he's not really either a 'career' or a 'peak' pitcher per se, which probably also hurts him. He apparently had monster seasons in at least 1928 and 1937, plus some very good seasons in between those.

Taking off from the premise that it would help to be able to evaluate peaks and careers, I am going to take a quick look at peaks. (Careers are much more complex.)

Also in the interest of full disclosure, I should mention that for MLers I use 3-5 years for peak ratings. Here I am sometimes forced to consider even one year as a peak because of the extreme difficulty of measuring a NeL peak--i.e. we often do not have complete data across a 3-5 year period. So for NeLers a 1-year peak is sometimes used as a surrogate for "peak" rating.

I have data for Brewer, D. Brown, Cooper, Donaldson, Mendez, Redding and Winters (the already eligibles who have their own threads) that gives me some confidence in ranking their peaks. That does not mean, of course, that additional info could not change the results. Other pitchers may have had peaks that are just as good, or not. Here's how I see it based on what I've seen so far.

1. Jose Mendez

40-14 NeL (6 year career), 2-0, 1.43 in 1924 Negro WS
74-25 in Cuban Lg (13 years), 42-8 1908-11
8-7-1 in Cuba vs. barnstorming ML first-division and all-star teams
44-2 barnstorming 1909

2. Nip Winters 71-21, approx. 3.00 with Phil Hilldales 1924-26, 4-1, est. 1.53 in NeL WS

3. Dave Brown 14-1, 2.42 (or 11-3, 2.18) in 1921, and 67-34 over 5 years (1920-24) with the Chicago American Giants.

4. Chet Brewer 17-3 in 1929, 58-33 with KC Monarchs in 1926-30.

5. Andy Cooper 15-7, 3.69 TRA with Detroit Stars 1923; 27-8 barnstorming with KC Monarchs 1936

6. Dick Redding 14-5, 1.57 TRA Chicago American Giants 1917

And the rest of the career contenders not yet elected looks to me to be:

1. R. Brown
2. Trent
3. H. Smith
4. Byrd
5. Matlock
6. Day

But I don't know enough about this group yet to be comfortable with this order, or with how they would integrate into the group already eligible and discussed in the previous post. But there are 12 peaks, not BTW including Satchel Paige because I regard him as as good as already being in the category with Foster-Foster-Williams-Rogan (already elected).

And then you've got career considerations as a separate discussion.

OK, the big project is near enough to done that I can offer a few choice tidbits. Hopefully the data that Chris now has in his hands will help him feel more comfortable as he begins working through MLEs for the NgL pitcher backlog. Here's the trends I found by using three-year rolling averages that combine all leagues or regions that Holway reports (with information supplmented as above by Gary A---thanks, Gary!).
The data covers 1920-1948.

NgL #1 starters of the early 20s captured almost 40% of their team's decisions. In a 154-game schedule, this would mean about 60 decisions. As the two-league system took hold, that rate went down so that until 1934, they got the equivalent of 45-48 decisions a year in a 154 schedule. Then they jump up in 1935 to the equivalent of 52-57 decisions. But that's nothing. In the early 1940s, they start raking in about 50% of all team decisions. Finally, they level out around 50 for the last several years of the league era. #1 guys in MLB, by contrast consistently saw their decisions dropping from 35ish in 1920 to 30ish by 1948.

The story of NgL #2 starters is kind of interesting. From 1920-1934, their workload represented about 35 decisions a year in a 154 game schedule. Then for the remainder of the NgL era, it jumps up to 40 decisions and back down to 35 every few years. During the same period, however, NL starters saw their decisions steadily drop from about 28 in 1920 to about 24 by 1948.

#3 starters in the NgLs consistently picked up decisions at a rate of about 25-27 per 154 games from 1920 through 1934. Then, like #2 starters, their number of decisions increases a bit, edging over 30 a year in the 1940s before tailing back down the 25-27 range. In the NL, pitchers dropped from about 25 decisions a year to about 22 by 1948.

#4 pitchers in the NgLs: 15-20 decisions a year with a jump to 25 in the early 40s and then back to normal levels by 1948. NL hurlers dropped from 20 to 17 over the NgL period.

#5 pitchers: Went hovered around 12 decisions a year in the NgL with a small jump in the early 40s. MLB #5s slide from 17 to 15 from 1920-1948.

#6 pitchers: NgL: 5-8 decisions a year; NL: about 12 a year.

So the story is that the top three guys get a much larger slice of the NgL decisions pie than their whiteball counterparts, while #4s get around the same number and numbers 5, 6, and beyond get increasingly fewer decisions than the white players did.

I think we probably all knew this, but it's at least confirmation of what we know. The reasons for the concentration are many and varied, and I didn't look into them.

In terms of what it means to generating MLEs, I suspect the value of this information is in building adjustments. Knowing the typical number of decisions in the NgLs and MLB, we can, perhaps, adjust our idea of how many innings a man threw with a little more precision by comparing his actual ratio of decisions/team decisions, comparing to the league average to see how he was being used relative to his league (that is, was he a #1, 2, 3,etc starter). Finally we could apply the ratio of his dec/tem vs. the NgL average dec/team to the MLB average as a beginning step toward estimating an innings total.

I'll be right back with something much less dry: leaderboards!

These leader boards are a bit preliminary because I've still have got a few identity questions to resolve and some data-neatening to do (they look pretty rough, I know), but I think I'm close enough along that it won't make a tremendous difference. Also, I don't know if I'll finish it by Monday, so I figured better to post now. If/when any of these change, I'll repost.

Remember, everything is based on Holway's data except where Gary has kindly supplied new data. That means only U.S. league and regional data is supplied for the years 1920-1948. (I may return to the pre-league years in the near future, no promises). This also includes data for the 1931 Negro Southern League because a) Holway supplied complete W-L data and b) a lot of top players were in the league that year. Holway's published career data often conflicts with itself (as Chris and Gary have recently pointed out), and I'm basing % of team decisions strictly on the sum of individual pitchers' wins and losses.

Top 25ish totals are shown for each leaderboard.

PRELIMINARY CAREER LEADER-BOARD LISTS

WINS
brown, ray …………………158
paige, satchel ………154
bell, william …………145
foster, bill ……………144
rogan, bullet …………144
byrd, bill …………………133
cooper, andy ……………130
winters, nip ……………127
holland, bill …………118
mcdonald, webster 117
davis, roosevelt …114
trent, ted …………………112
streeter, sam …………105
brewer, chet ……………104
currie, rube ……………96
drake, bill …………………96
hensley, slap ……………90
salmon, harry ……………90
cockrell, phil …………87
henderson, rats ………81
strong, joe …………………81
matlock, leroy …………77
cooper, daltie …………74
smith, hilton ……………70
mchenry, henry …………69
Powell, willie……………69
Yokely, laymon……………69
Day,leon……………………………68
Brown, dave……………………68

LOSSES
holland, bill ……………105
mcdonald, webster …96
paige, satchel …………93
byrd, bill ……………………84
yokely, laymon …………80
winters, nip ………………79
cockrell, phil …………79
cornelius, sug …………77
stanley, neck ……………77
davis, roosevelt ……75
brewer, chet ………………73
streeter, sam ……………72
strong, joe …………………71
foster, bill ………………70
currie, rube ……………69
bell, william ……………66
drake, bill …………………64
salmon, harry ……………64
bell, cliff …………………64
brown, barney ……………62
trent, ted ……………………61
cooper, andy ………………59
rogan, bullet ……………57
diaz, yo-yo …………………57
brown, ray ……………………56
poindexter, bob ………56

WIN PCT (MINIMUM 50 DEC)
[NOTE: The total win% for all the seasons inputted was around .531.]
Army cooper………………….789
Jim Lemarque……………….741
Ray Brown……………………….738
Bertrum Hunter………….733
Bullet Rogan……………….716
Hilton Smith……………….714
LeRoy Matlock…………….713
Johnny Wright…………….698
Andy Cooper………………….688
William Bell……………….687
Max Manning………………….684
Huck Rile……………………….673
Bill Foster………………….672
Leon Day ……………………….667
Dave Brown…………………….663
Joe Williams……………….663
John Williams…………….661
Gene Bremer………………….656
Porter Charleston….654
Slap Hensley……………….647
Ted Trent……………………….647
Jonas Gaines……………….636
Dave Barnhill…………….634
Ted Shaw………………………….627
Satchel Paige…………….623
Percy Miller……………….620

DECISIONS
paige, satchel ………247
holland, bill …………223
byrd, bill …………………217
brown, ray …………………214
foster, bill ……………214
mcdonald, webster 213
bell, william …………211
winters, nip ……………206
rogan, bullet …………201
cooper, andy ……………189
davis, roosevelt …189
streeter, sam …………177
brewer, chet ……………177
trent, ted …………………173
cockrell, phil ………166
currie, rube …………165
drake, bill ………………160
salmon, harry …………154
strong, joe ………………152
yokely, laymon ………149
cornelius, sug ………142
hensley, slap …………139
henderson, rats ……133
cooper, daltie ………124
powell, willie ………124

% OF TEAM DECISIONS (minimum 50 decisions)
Dave Brown……………………28.8%
Dick Redding………………28.7%
Verdell Mathis…………28.7%
Max Manning…………………28.0%
Jim Lemarque………………27.2%
Ray Brown………………………26.6%
Bill Byrd………………………26.6%
Lucas Boada…………………25.1%
Basillio Roselle……25.0%
Leon Day…………………………24.6%
Henry McHenry……………24.0%
Porter Moss…………………23.9%
Rats Henderson…………23.8%
Connie Rector……………23.0%
Jimmy Newberry…………22.9%
Gene Bremer…………………22.3%
Bill Holland………………22.3%
Joe Williams………………21.7%
Laymon Yokely……………21.7%
Sug Cornelius……………20.9%
Hilton Smith………………20.2%
Bob McClure…………………20.2%
Luis Tiant……………………20.1%
Pud Flournoy………………20.0%
Red Grier………………………19.8%

WAT
brown, ray …………………32.75639
cooper, andy ……………21.75161
salmon, harry …………21.63823
byrd, bill …………………18.98093
foster, bill ……………18.9751
winters, nip ……………18.1168
paige, satchel ………17.75274
mchenry, henry ………16.07841
rogan, bullet …………13.7111
rector, connie ………13.63975
barnhill, dave ………13.60113
rile, huck …………………12.98447
jessup, gentry ………12.76546
charleston, porter12.35478
henderson, rats ……12.30428
bremer, gene ……………11.34842
day, leon ……………………11.16076
brown, dave ………………10.85625
streeter, sam …………10.45674
levis, oscar ……………10.33544
matlock, leroy ………9.704514
trent, ted …………………9.684171
gomez, david ……………9.310013
hunter, bertrum ……9.287178
fields, wilmer ………8.503415

WAT PER DECISION (minimum 50 decisions)
Dave Barnhill…………….192
Porter Charleston….158
Ray Brown……………………….153
Harry Salmon……………….141
Gentry Jessup…………….136
Henry McHenry…………….135
Huck Rile……………………….132
Connie Rector…………….126
Gene Bremer………………….122
Andy Cooper………………….115
Army Cooper………………….111
Pullman Porter………….110
Leon Day………………………….109
Bertrum Hunter………….108
Dave Brown…………………….107
Red Grier……………………….105
Oscar Levis………………….104
Rats Henderson………….093
Leroy Matlock…………….090
Bill Foster………………….089
Jim Lemarque……………….088
Nip Winters………………….088
Bill Byrd……………………….087
Joe Williams……………….085
Dick Redding……………….082
Max Manning………………….082
Carl Glass…………………….082

One thing I'd like to point out about these leaderboards is that they may be slightly misleading because

a) they don't include pre-1920 totals, meaning Dick Redding, Joe Williams, and their generation get short shrift.
b) they don't contain any post-1948 totals, meaning that guys like Max Manning, Dave Barnhill, and Luis Tiant get short shrift.
c) thus: the guys who do well are the ones whose careers go from around 1920 through the end of the war.

Dr. Chaleeko, thanks!

This is totally awesome data!

There's _a ton_ of work to do on these guys, figuring out seasonal values based on workload, team quality, and wins above team, but this is a tremendous step forward.

The only big conclusion that I draw from this data is that the nature of case for Ray Brown has changed: we now need to be considering if there are reasons he's _not_ a HoMer, because the evidence here is that he is the best of the group, durable and dominant. Wow!

Ray Brown is also # 2 in winning percentage on the Cuban League all-time list:

Jose Mendez .731
Ray Brown .696
Carlos Royer .677
Martin Dihigo .656
Camilo Pascual .644
Conrado Marrero .600
Adolfo Luque .599
Juan M. Pastoriza .596
Pedro Ramos .595
Orlando Pena .592

For wins, the Cuban League leaders are:

Martin Dihigo 107
Adolfo Luque 106
Carlos Royer 90
Adrian Zabala 90
Manuel Garcia 85
Jose Munoz 82
Jose Mendez 76
Tomas de la Cruz 71
Miguel Fornieles 70
Conrado Marrero 69
Agapito Mayor 68

Gary, Gadfly, David, Chris, Anyone!,

Are Juan Padrone and Luis Padron the same person?

Thanks!

According to Figueredo, Luis Padron pitched in the Cuban League from 1900-19. Figueredo doesn't list a Juan Padrone, but from the dates shown above (1923, 1924), it seems doubtful that he was the same person.

Brent, we're caught in the dreaded NgL-Researcher Crossfire...Riley's entry for Juan Luis Padrone says to see Luis Padron. Oy.

Doc:

There is an exchange in the Beckwith thread between Gary A. and Gadfly around post 140 that clears up the Padrón confusion. They are not the same person.

Thanks, Esteban!

To everyone,

Sorry if it seems like I'm blog-clogging in other threads, I just figured that I would post information on individual NgL pitcher threads about where each finishes on my "finalized" career leaderboards. I'll be posting top-X career lists for the NgL pitchers here in a little while, but I'm going to put the individual pitchers' information onto their threads first just to be sure all the backlog guys we're talking about here get their due.

No apology needed, Doc. We appreciate all of your work.

I second that Doc, this is great stuff and good work.

One thing to remember when comparing Negro League pitchers is that star Negro League pitchers very often were 'featured' against one another. In other words, their teams would publicize match-ups between the best pitchers to build the gate.

The probably best known example of this is when they actually stopped the Championship Series one year just to promote a Satchel Paige-Slim Jones match-up.

The obvious point of this being that, if a star pitcher pitches mostly against other star pitchers, his winning percentage (WP) will not truly represent his talent.

[Of course, in the Majors, star pitcher match-ups, because of pitching rotations and a much lesser need for publicity, are much rarer. However, a good example is the famous Walter Johnson-Joe Wood match-up in 1912.]

When I first started studying the Negro Leagues, I was surprised to find that Satchel Paige's WP did not seem all that great. But then I slowly came to realize that Paige was pretty much just pitching against the other team's aces.

Basically, Paige was pitching .650 ball against .650 pitchers from 1932 on.

There is a book about the Homestead Grays (In the shadow of the Senators) which details how Paige pitched again and again against the Homestead Grays one year. He pitched fantastically, drew enormous crowds, but couldn't buy a victory.

Of course, the Grays were the Negro League's answer to that generation's New York Yankees.

This 'star pitcher' effect obviously hurts Paige more than anyone, but is also noticable in quite a number of other pitcher's careers (Slim Jones, Willie Foster, Rogan, Joe Williams, Mendez, etc.)

Of course, pre-1920 star caliber pitchers have an additional type of 'star pitcher' problem. Basically their teams were only playing the cream of the other Negro League teams.

Mendez is a good example of this. In 1911, Mendez pitched 38 games total for the barnstorming Cuban Stars. He won 33, lost 3, and 2 games ended tied. He threw a total of 14 shutouts.

Against colored teams, Mendez pitched 14 games, winning 12 and losing just 1 (His no decision was the famous 12 inning 2-2 tie versus Rube Foster). Mendez shut out 3 Negro teams.

In those 14 games, Mendez piched one game against the Cuban Giants, one game against the Philadelphia Giants, and one game against the All Cubans.

The other 11 games were all against the absolute cream of the Negro teams (American Giants 5, Brooklyn Royal Giants 4, Lincoln Giants 2). With the quality of his competition taken into consideration, Mendez' record of 12-1 actually understates how good he was (which seems, now that I'm writing it, kind of unbelievable).

Of course, this simply makes deducing greatness even harder; but it is an effect to be aware of.

Gadfly,

That's really interesting to hear, and I think we should remember it when we deal with guys like Ray Brown who had long careers with dynastic teams. (Then again Brown had a lot of WAT too...).

A couple other phenomenon that I'd like to make everyone aware of are
a) these lists are only for the league era
b) the reported results do not appear to indicate the teams played a balanced schedule
c) some players' teams may be more thoroughly documented than others'
d) the number of league games played is inconsistent from year to year and era to era.

I'd love some feedback from everyone for a way to counteract these last three effects by prorating all pitcher and team seasons to some common threshold or number of decisions (or at least those team seasons in which it's reasonable to do so).

By doing so we could level out some of the inequalities of reporting and scheduling so that we're not comparing apples to oranges. Actually, I guess it would be much like prorating WS to 154 or 162.

I've got the man-by-man data laid out in a spreadsheet, so this kind of adjustment could be made very granularly.

For an example of the distorting effects that I mentioned in my previous post, please see posts #12 and 13 on the Nip Winters thread.

Rankings of various current backlog pitcher candidates on the career NgL leaderboards

All information is from Holway's Complete Book of Baseball's Negro Leagues except for the information Gary has share above in this thread.

HARRY SALMON
WINS t-17th with 90 wins

LOSSES t-17th with 64 losses

DECISIONS 18th with 154 decisions

WINNING PCT .584
(50 decisions minimum) 46th
(25 decisions minimum) 69th
(10 decisions minimum) 107th

ADJ PCT OF TEAM DECISIONS 23.3%
(50 decisions minimum) 27th
(25 decisions minimum) 38th
(10 decisions minimum) 60th

WAT 3rd with 21.6

WAT PER DECISION .141
(50 decisions minimum) 5th
(25 decisions minimum) 12th
(10 decisions minimum) 28th
============================

TED TRENT

WINS 12th with 112

LOSSES 22nd with 61

DECISIONS 14th with 173

WINNING PCT .647
(50 decisions minimum) 21st
(25 decisions minimum) 33rd
(10 decisions minimum) 68th

ADJ PCT OF TEAM DEC 25%
(50 decisions minimum) 17th
(25 decisions minimum) 25th
(10 decisions minimum) 41st

WAT 22nd with 9.7

WAT PER DECISION .056
(50 decisions minimum) 43rd
(25 decisions minimum) 64th
(10 decisions minimum) 100th
==============================

WILLIAM BELL

WINS 3rd with 145

LOSSES 16th with 66

DECISIONS 7th with 211

WINNING PCT .687
(50 decisions minimum) 11th
(25 decisions minimum) 20th
(10 decisions minimum) 35th

ADJ PCT OF TEAM DECISIONS 17.6%
(50 decisions minimum) 71st
(25 decisions minimum) 94th
(10 decisions minimum) 134th

WAT 50th with 4.5

WAT PER DECISION .021
(50 decisions minimum) 61st
(25 decisions minimum) 88th
(10 decisions minimum) 137th
===============================

TOM WILLIAMS (career began before 1920)

WINS t-50th with 49

LOSSES t-180th with 14

DECISIONS 88th with 63

WINNING PCT .778
(50 decisions minimum) 2nd
(25 decisions minimum) 2nd
(10 decisions minimum) 6th

ADJ PCT OF TEAM DECISIONS 16.1%
(50 decisions minimum) 82nd
(25 decisions minimum) 111th
(10 decisions minimum) 162nd

WAT 22 with 9.1

WAT/DEC .144
(50 decisions minimum) 4th
(25 decisions minimum) 11th
(10 decisions minimum) 26th
=============================

LEROY MATLOCK

WINS 22nd with 77

LOSSES 82nd with 31

DECISIONS t-33rd with 108

WINNING PCT .713
(50 decisions minimum) 8th
(25 decisions minimum) 14th
(10 decisions minimum) 27th

ADJ PCT OF TEAM DECISIONS .164
(50 decisions minimum) 80th
(25 decisions minimum) 108th
(10 decisions minimum) 157th

WAT 21st with 9.7

WAT PER DECISION .090
(50 decisions minimum) 20th
(25 decisions minimum) 36th
(10 decisions minimum) 63rd

If there's anyone else you'd like me to break out for you, I'll be happy to!