My guess: We elect the two middle infielders and probably the Crime Dog in 2010, and Bags, Raffy (depending on boycotts) and one of Walker/Brown in 2011. Edgar and the loser of the Walker/Brown derby will be mid-high backloggers (elected in 2012? Has anyone tried to figure out a list for that one?), along with Olerud (a long-time favorite of mine, so I might be overrating him) and Ventura. Juan Gone will get some votes here and there, maybe Burks as well.

If a backlogger manages to sneak in (unlikely, since those guys will have plenty of chances before this), it makes things even tighter.

McGriff?? I don't see him as *close*...Of not-yet-eligible position players, here's my ranking:

Bonds
ARod
Rickey
Ripken
Piazza
Larkin
Bagwell
Raines
Griffey
Sheffield
Pudge
Thomas
Gwynn
Chipper
Biggio
McGwire
Manny
Thome
Jeter
Palmeiro
Edmonds
Posada
Pujols
Rolen
Sosa
Walker
Alomar
BGiles
Vlad
Giambi
Edgar
-----current in/out line----
Bernie
Ventura
Abreu
Belle
TFernández
Salmon
Luis González
Kent
Lofton
Olerud
O'Neill
McGriff
Nomah
Kendall
TPhillips
JBell
Helton

elected in 2012? Has anyone tried to figure out a list for that one

Yes, I've looked at it some and 2012 is a three-backlogger year, I think. Nobody retired after 2006, they all came back for 2007. The best newbie I see is Bernie Williams. Others:

Tim Salmon
Ruben Sierra
Sandy Alomar, Jr.*
Bill Mueller
Tim Worrell
Jeff Fassero
Jeff Nelson
Vinny Castilla
Brian Jordan
Eric Young
Scott Erickson
Kent Mercker
JT Snow
Pedro Astacio
Jeromy Burnitz
Jose Hernandez
Joe Randa
Tony Womack
Rick Helling
Javy Lopez
David Bell
Phil Nevin
Matt Lawton
Carl Everett
Brad Radke
Keith Foulke
Edgardo Alfonzo
Alex Gonzalez
Danny Graves

Depending on how many the HOF elects, we may not want to elect three every year. We may want to elect 2 in odd years (2009, 2011, 2013) and 3 in even years (2010, 2012, 2014). Otherwise our number may far exceed theirs in short order.

Depending on how many the HOF elects, we may not want to elect three every year

My sense is that once we catch up in time, there's no reason to match our numbers to theirs. We started with that number so that we could show who really belonged if 231 players were elected. As we continue, we can show who should be elected once that standard has been established. If we reduce the number of electees without a demographic justification for it (which we don't have at present), we would be in effect changing our standards, falling (to a lesser extent) into the same trap the HoF has fallen into. If our numbers far exceed theirs, it will only highlight the problems of their process (and if our numbers are far exceeding theirs, they will eventually find a VC configuration that increases their rate of inductions).

One name for 2012 that will be interesting: Bernie Williams. Here's a few guys who did not play in 2007 but did play in 2006, so potential 2012ers.

HITTERS
-------
Bernie Williams
Tim Salmon
Edgardo Alfonzo
Javy Lopez
Jeromy Burntiz
Vinny Castilla
Eric Young
Bill Mueller
Joe Randa
Phil Nevin
Ruben Sierra
Carl Everett
J.T. Snow
David Bell
Corey Koskie
Matt Lawton
Jose Hernandez
Alex S. Gonzalez
Tony Batista
Tony Womack
Todd Hollandsworth
Jose Vizcaino
Damian Jackson

PITCHERS
--------
Brad Radke
Keith Foulke
Cory Lidle
Rick Helling
Terry Mulholland
Pedro Astacio
Kent Merker
Arthur Rhodes
Jeff Fassero
Felix Rodriguez
Ricardo Rincon
Tim Worrell
Dustin Hermanson

Oops, missed Dan's post above. Sorry.

Yes, I've looked at it some and 2012 is a three-backlogger year, I think. Nobody retired after 2006, they all came back for 2007.

I wouldn't call it a three-backlogger year. The classes of 2010 and 2011 are so strong that we'll definitely have some holdovers from those ballots. Most likely, we'll have two of Fred McGriff, Edgar Martinez and Larry Walker still hanging around (presuming we elect Alomar and Larkin and 1 of McGriff/Martinez in '10, and Palmeiro, Bagwell and Brown in '11). Maybe those guys won't go in as easily as I think they will, but we could be looking at only one backlog spot in '12, not three.

Olerud and Ventura also. 2010/2011 are really strong groups.