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Thursday, October 05, 2006

Once We Catch-Up: The Hall of Merit After 2007

This thread will deal with how we should handle the first annual election starting in 2008.

John (You Can Call Me Grandma) Murphy Posted: October 05, 2006 at 04:02 PM | 432 comment(s)
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   401. KJOK Posted: September 28, 2008 at 08:06 PM (#2959369)
I agree with chronological.


But isn't the whole point of this stage of the HOM to rank within position ACROSS the chronological spectrum? Comparing pitchers to their chronological peers is somewhat repeating what we did in the first election process?
   402. Paul Wendt Posted: September 28, 2008 at 09:02 PM (#2959435)
Excellent point.
What I meant a few days ago was that we might explicitly rank some subgroups and then explicitly combine the rankings into one overall.
>>
3.
Perhaps there is a useful way to rank the pitchers in groups and (partly?) combine rankings in a second stage.
By the way,
- from the Rolaids Age we have 4 of the 5 HOF relief pitchers and we have no others.
- from the Negro Leagues we have 8 of the 11 HOF pitchers, counting Rube Foster and Martin Dihigo, and we have no others.
- from before 1893 we have 6 of the 7 HOF pitchers, counting Al Spalding and John Ward, and we have added Bob Caruthers.
Those counts are errorprone.
:-(
<<

I won't advocate this suggestion with any heart and I won't retract the suggestion either.

However it is structured I will try to vote in all parts of the project to rank pitchers.
   403. Chris Cobb Posted: September 28, 2008 at 10:42 PM (#2959546)
Surely the fundamental issue with pitchers is that a 63-man ballot is not feasible?

Given the inherent difficulties in ranking pitchers across periods, which are more severe than ranking position players across periods (not that the position player rankings are easy!), it seems like period divisions are the best way to generate rankings that are grounded in evidence that we will likely agree upon.

It also seems that period divisions give a bit of flexibility, so that with period distinctions we can make sure that all of the balloting groups are suitably sized--I think we should avoid both 6-player ballots and 34-player ballots, myself.

I'm pretty sure the Commissioner's last statements about the pitcher balloting were pretty definite that pitchers would be divided on a period basis, so we might be better served to discuss what the period divisions should be, rather than arguing for alternate grouping paradigms.

Myself, I favor three groups, with break points at 1919/1920 (the lively ball), and 1961/62 (the solidification of the four-man rotation and the starter/reliever firewall). This division creates challenges of ranking pre-1893 pitchers with post-1893 pitchers (not easy, but there's just six of the pre- guys) and of ranking relievers with starters on the post-1961 ballot, so it wouldn't be a just-run-the-numbers vote.

By my count, there would be 21 pitchers in the 1871-1919 group: Spalding, Galvin, Radbourn, Keefe, Clarkson, Caruthers, Rusie, Nichols, Young, Griffith, Waddell, McGinnity, Mathewson, Plank, R. Foster, Brown, Walsh, Mendez, Johnson, J. Williams, Alexander

There would be 22 pitchers in the 1920-61 group: Rixey, Faber, Coveleski, Vance, Rogan, Grove, W. Foster, Paige, Hubbell, Ferrell, Lyons, Ruffing, Dihigo, R. Brown, Feller, Newhouser, Wynn, Spahn, Lemon, Pierce, Roberts, Ford

There would be 20 pitchers in the 1962-present group: Wilhelm, Drysdale, Koufax, Bunning, Marichal, Gibson, Perry, Niekro, Carlton, Sutton, Jenkins, Seaver, Ryan, Palmer, Blyleven, Fingers, Gossage, Eckersley, Stieb, Saberhagen

A fair number of pitchers are split over both of these proposed break points, but it's pretty clear for the 1919/1920 split that the pitchers in question peaked on one side of the divide or the other.

The 1961/62 split is messier, but I would argue that the difference in usage patterns between, say, Billy Pierce and Sandy Koufax during his peak is significant, and that relief pitchers only really came into their own in the 1960s (that's where more of Wilhelm's value is), and that the only starting pitchers who really have significant peak on both sides of the divide are Ford and Drysdale. Ford clearly has more value total before 1961, even though his biggest years are after, and Drysdale is clearly a 1960s workhorse, even though he had some very solid years prior to 1962.

That would be my modest proposal. It doesn't have us just doing any ballots of 5-6 guys, it marks off a couple of significant pitcher usage changes, and it doesn't create any groups so large than John Murphy will tear his hear out tabulating ballots.
   404. Paul Wendt Posted: September 29, 2008 at 12:01 AM (#2959653)
403. Chris Cobb Posted: September 28, 2008 at 10:42 PM (#2959546)
Surely the fundamental issue with pitchers is that a 63-man ballot is not feasible?
. . .
it doesn't create any groups so large than John Murphy will tear his hear out tabulating ballots.


Yes. I was thinking of the daunting intellectual challenge for the voters and anticipating few ballots cast. The latter might save JTM's hair but it would also defeat the purpose. I believe you are right that groups of size X, Y, and 34 would leave make two groups workable but 34 would not be enough improvement on 63. If the groups are not rather equal in size then we need four of them (recall 12,12,21,12 for ranking the 55 notHOFers).
   405. KJOK Posted: September 29, 2008 at 02:18 PM (#2960279)
The proposal by Chris seems very reasonable to me. I think I'd add John Montgomery Ward to the first pitcher group. Even though he was voted on as a SS, I think he deserves to be ranked in the pitcher group also?

Perhaps also add Martin Dihigo to the 2nd pitcher group?
   406. Paul Wendt Posted: September 29, 2008 at 03:15 PM (#2960359)
I have the same 63 Chris listed, including Dihigo (whom Kevin overlooked) but not not Ward. The three subgroup lists look right to me.
   407. Joe Dimino Posted: September 30, 2008 at 01:32 AM (#2960895)
Myself, I favor three groups, with break points at 1919/1920 (the lively ball), and 1961/62 (the solidification of the four-man rotation and the starter/reliever firewall). This division creates challenges of ranking pre-1893 pitchers with post-1893 pitchers (not easy, but there's just six of the pre- guys) and of ranking relievers with starters on the post-1961 ballot, so it wouldn't be a just-run-the-numbers vote.


I'm pretty strongly against combining 1871-1892 with 1893-1919 - it was a completely different job. There's a reason barely no one crossed over. I realize this makes the first group small, but I think that's OK. I don't think pitchers across that line are comparable, and don't see very much utility in trying . . . could be convinced otherwise, but I really do think it's better to draw the line there.

What about something along the lines of:

1871-1892
1893-1942
1946-1985
1985-current
Relievers

I think that jives with major pitcher usage pattern trends reasonably, right?

Just offering it up as an alternative. Realize this is very subjective, but it seems logical.
   408. Juan V, posting on behalf of Juan V. Posted: September 30, 2008 at 02:33 AM (#2960915)
Yeah. But the 1985-current group would be just Stieb and Saberhagen, with maybe Ryan with them, right? Perhaps we could include them with the 46-85 group temporarily and revisit them ten years from now? At least the pre-1893 group is seven guys, if I count right.
   409. OCF Posted: September 30, 2008 at 04:16 AM (#2960922)
Besides, I think that 1990 makes a better dividing point than 1985.

Just as a marker of the changes taking place, what happened to the number of complete games? The following is for the NL only, and is a weighted running average of 7 years centered at the year in question; the number is the number of complete games per team per 162 games scheduled. (Linear extrapolation for 1981, 1994, and 1995.)

League CG/team/season
1970 42.7
1975 35.4
1980 26.4
1985 20.5
1990 16.3
1995 10.5
2000 7.7
2005 5.1

The total is still declining. It was 45 (2.8 per team) in 2007 and 61 (3.8 per team) in 2008. There are individual years that have bounced up or down, but that running average has declined every single year. over this span.

While I think there is a transition in there somewhere, it's hard to single out any particular year as a marker for that. I was going for 1990 as the approximate codification of the LaRussa style bullpen, but I think everything is a moving target.

============

On the whole, I like Chris's proposal with its groups of 20-some pitchers. I would almost endorse it - but 1893 is a chasm that I can't see bridging. I refuse to extend my usual methods back before 1893; I don't even want to compare Nichols to Clarkson.
   410. Joe Dimino Posted: September 30, 2008 at 08:32 AM (#2960947)
Yeah. But the 1985-current group would be just Stieb and Saberhagen, with maybe Ryan with them, right? Perhaps we could include them with the 46-85 group temporarily and revisit them ten years from now? At least the pre-1893 group is seven guys, if I count right.


I hadn't even looked at who the candidates would be in each group. was just trying to split them logically.
   411. Joe Dimino Posted: September 30, 2008 at 08:33 AM (#2960948)
Ugh . . . I thought I said, 'yeah Juan' that is reasonable in #410 also. :-)
   412. DL from MN Posted: September 30, 2008 at 09:59 AM (#2961010)
I like these groups

Pre 1893 (pre-rubber - 7 pitchers)
1893-1920 (deadball - 14 pitchers)
1920-1961 (complete games drop from 50% to 33% - 21 pitchers)
1961-present (>1 reliever pitching 50 games - 22 pitchers)

Good article by Rany: http://www.baseballprospectus.com/article.php?articleid=2627

The other group that seems to make sense is 1893-1940 or the end of the "swingman" era. That would put Feller, Newhouser, Wynn, Spahn, Lemon, Pierce, Roberts, Ford into the next era. The "swingman" pitchers would have over 30 on the ballot. We could split the last 30 between the 4 man and 5 man rotation eras (1976 break point).
   413. DL from MN Posted: September 30, 2008 at 11:25 AM (#2961106)
Thinking a bit more about it, I'd prefer to rank in the largest groups possible. I'd favor groups of:

<=1892 (Spalding, Galvin, Radbourn, Keefe, Clarkson, Caruthers, Rusie?, Ward) 8

1893 to 1939 (Nichols, Young, Griffith, Waddell, McGinnity, Mathewson, Plank, R. Foster, Brown, Walsh, Mendez, Johnson, J. Williams, Alexander, Rixey, Faber, Coveleski, Vance, Rogan, Grove, W. Foster, Paige, Hubbell, Ferrell, Lyons, Ruffing, Dihigo, R. Brown) 28

1940 to present (Feller, Newhouser, Wynn, Spahn, Lemon, Pierce, Roberts, Ford, Wilhelm, Drysdale, Koufax, Bunning, Marichal, Gibson, Perry, Niekro, Carlton, Sutton, Jenkins, Seaver, Ryan, Palmer, Blyleven, Fingers, Gossage, Eckersley, Stieb, Saberhagen) 28

If we break those into smaller groups I like Rixey and Perry as the break points.
   414. Joe Dimino Posted: September 30, 2008 at 11:31 AM (#2961111)
DL - I think you are on the right track - but I like splitting out somehow around the 1980s - things changed between 1980 and 1990. There is greater difference between 1980 and 1990 than between 1946 and 1980.

But I realize that doesn't leave us much of a post 1980-90ish group - yet.

I definitely think relievers need to be broken out separately. For one, it saves us the agony of everyone talking about how relievers are worthless :-)
   415. Joe Dimino Posted: September 30, 2008 at 11:32 AM (#2961114)
I would think Rusie should be in the post-1892 group, BTW. I wouldn't go by debut, but by which group most of the pitcher's value falls under.
   416. Joe Dimino Posted: September 30, 2008 at 11:39 AM (#2961122)
I would not be opposed to smaller groups either. We have position players broken into 8 groups, I see no issue with breaking pitchers into 4 or 5 groups, if there is justification for it.

Let's go the opposite, break them down as much as possible (just as an alternative, then shoot for ground in the middle).

1871-1892 - old distance
1893-1920 - deadball
1921-1942 - liveball
1946-1962 - emergence of bullpens
1963-1987 - kill the arms, lots of CG and overload aces
1988-present - baby the arms

I realize the 1988 line could easily be 1990 or 1995 - but I think the ball got started in 1988 when Eckersley started closing.

I think that's the most we could break it down - can anyone see the case for combining any of those groups?
   417. Joe Dimino Posted: September 30, 2008 at 11:45 AM (#2961130)
Oh, and I would keep relievers separate as well.

Breakdown of the groups by numbers:

(6) 1871-1892 - old distance
(15) 1893-1920 - deadball
(14) 1921-1942 - liveball
(8) 1946-1962 - emergence of bullpens
(23.5)1963-1987 - kill the arms, lots of CG and overload aces
(1) 1988-present - baby the arms
(3.5) relievers -

Not sure where to count Eck - lean reliever, he wasn't going HoF as starter. Could see putting him on both lists? Probably not though.

Obviously for now we'd stick Sabes in with the kill the arms group, until we get some of the others in like Pedro, Maddux, Clemens, etc.
   418. DL from MN Posted: September 30, 2008 at 12:30 PM (#2961178)
I think the 5 man rotation and the requirement for a bullpen ace were pretty well established in the mid-1970s. The Rolaids Relief award was first issued in 1976. Feller-Gibson and Perry-Saberhagen make a lot of sense to me. We could break it down further around 1983-1984 (fireman turns into closer/setup marked by the first 40+ save season) but we really haven't elected that group yet so it doesn't make sense at this time. It also just seems to be a refinement of the previous era.

I'm ok with the old distance, deadball, liveball breakdowns. I don't want relievers separated. They really only impact one era (70s-present).
   419. Paul Wendt Posted: September 30, 2008 at 03:24 PM (#2961377)
Feller-Marichal

Here is some annual data on pitcher usage. Columns 2-4 give the aggregate numbers of pitcher games, team games, and complete games. Column 5 gives the complete game rate (percent). Columns 6-7 give the average number of pitchers per game, first for all games and then for incomplete games only. Columns 8-11 give the shares of pitcher appearances that are starts, complete games, closed games, and middle relief.

yearID PitchG TeamG CompleG CGpct PitchpG condPpG Start Complete Close Middle
1871 277 254 231 90.94 1.09 2.00 91.69 83.39 8.30 0

1918 3038 2032 1280 62.99 1.49 2.33 66.88 42.13 24.75 8.36

2006 18694 4858 144 2.96 3.84 3.93 25.98 0.77 25.21 48.79
yearID PitchG TeamG CompleG CGpct PitchpG condPpG Start Complete Close Middle
   420. Paul Wendt Posted: September 30, 2008 at 03:29 PM (#2961383)
yearID PitchG TeamG CompleG ; CGpct PitchpG condPpG Start ; Complete Close Middle
1871 _277 _254 _231 ; 90.94 1.09 2.00 91.69 ; 83.39 8.30 0

1918 3038 2032 1280 ; 62.99 1.49 2.33 66.88 ; 42.13 24.75 8.36

2006 18694 4858 144 ; _2.96 3.84 3.93 25.98 ; 0.77 25.21 48.79
yearID PitchG TeamG CompleG ; CGpct PitchpG condPpG Start ; Complete Close Middle
   421. Paul Wendt Posted: September 30, 2008 at 03:54 PM (#2961411)
For example in 1871 there were 254 team games (col 3) of which 231 or 90.94% were complete games (cols 4-5). Teams used 1.09 pitchers per game on average over all games, but 2.00 pitchers per incomplete game or 2.00 pitchers given at least 2 pitchers (cols 6-7). (No team used three pitchers in a game during 1871-1873.) Expressed as percent of all games played by pitchers, there were 83.7% complete games (both start and close by one pitcher, col 9), 8.3% were other starts (col 10), 8.3% were other closes (also col 10), and 0.0% were middles (neither start nor close, col 12).

In principle, but not in 1871, there is a small overcount of closing relief appearances ("other close", col 10) and a small undercount of middle relief appearances (neither start nor close, col 11) because my desktop baseball database does not account for starting pitchers who leave that role but later return and close the game as pitchers.

In sharp contrast, by 2006 only 3% of team games were complete games for one pitcher (col 5) and 49% of all pitcher appearances were middle relief (neither start nor close, col 11).

Pitcher-roles.txt in the Files section of our yahoogroup website gives every series, 1871-2006, in one comma-delimited text file. 136 rows x 11 columns.
Pitcher-roles.txt (at yahoogroups.com, members only)
   422. OCF Posted: September 30, 2008 at 05:14 PM (#2961466)
Testing: did Paul break it?
   423. Howie Menckel Posted: September 30, 2008 at 07:27 PM (#2961567)
Bless any of you for not making me try to rank 64 guys at once.
I'll tell almost any of the breakdowns listed...
   424. Chris Cobb Posted: September 30, 2008 at 09:36 PM (#2961912)
It seems to me that breaking down the pitchers so far as to have groups of less than 10 makes the rankings of those small groups neither especially meaningful nor especially interesting.

I know that we can't use the same formulas for the pre-1893 pitchers, but in terms of difficulty in ranking, is it harder to compare Charley Radbourn to Kid Nichols than it is to compare Rube Foster to Kid Nichols?</code>

Similarly, separating out the relief pitchers will preempt all the comments about how they are worse than the starters, but it will also tacitly reinforce that evaluation without putting it to the test. If even one relief pitcher finishes ahead of a starting pitcher in the rankings, that would be a highly significant event. I don't know if it will happen, but finding out will be a lot more interesting than not finding out.
   425. Howie Menckel Posted: September 30, 2008 at 09:46 PM (#2961931)
Perhaps once we rank our SPs (w or w/o RPs) by era, it will be a lot easier for some of us to do a "top 20" all-time.
We have roughly top 20 for all other spots, granting that the pitching version would encompass not all of the HOMers.

Another possibility is picking the top 20 OFs combining the three positions, and even maybe the top 20 INFs if we liked.

Not sure on the latter two, but the pitching followup seems promising.

Of course, before we know it we'll be voting in 2009 HOMers (Rickey and a couple of pals), and I guess slotting them in at their respective positions...
   426. Joe Dimino Posted: October 01, 2008 at 10:16 AM (#2962323)
is it harder to compare Charley Radbourn to Kid Nichols than it is to compare Rube Foster to Kid Nichols?


Yes. In my opinion, infinitely so.

Similarly, separating out the relief pitchers will preempt all the comments about how they are worse than the starters, but it will also tacitly reinforce that evaluation without putting it to the test.


Bill James broke them out in the first HBA, and only had 5 listed (and 30 RHSP) and I didn't think anything of it. Seemed like it made sense. It's a different position. We don't rank SS and LF together, even though they both hit and field. They have different responsibilities and expectations.

I like Howie's idea of ranking them in groups first, and then voting for a top 20 combining all groups. Would be best of both worlds, right?
   427. Chris Cobb Posted: October 01, 2008 at 10:53 AM (#2962374)
Let me preface my responses to Joe by noting that the decision of how to divide up the pitchers will fall to Joe as commissioner: I'll be voting whatever the plan is. But I am not convinced that the divisions Joe is proposing make sense, and so I am trying to address what I see as the key problems with these arguments.

Yes. In my opinion, infinitely so.

Three points in response to this.

First: I'm sorry, but I don't buy this claim on its face. For Rube Foster, we have some very fragmentary data, we don't really know much about what his usage patterns were, we don't really know the level of competition he was facing in the data we have, and you claim that it is easier to rank him against another pitcher than it is to rank a player for whom we have fairly complete data and fairly good information about competition levels, just because a shorter pitching distance made it possible for pitchers to through proportionately more innings?

Second: I am also not convinced that the rate of pitcher attrition was significantly higher at the 1892-93 changeover than at any other time in the early game, once the contraction of 1892 is properly accounted for.

if one does a study, year-to-year, of the pitchers who threw at least 20% of team innings, looking at, say 1885-1901, which gives us eight years around the change-of-distance, does the attrition rate look significantly different? I would want to see those numbers before accepting the claim that the pitching distance change was that revolutionary a change. We see that the great pitchers of the 1880s all wrapped up their careers 1891-95, but that could be an accident of the random, uneven distribution of great players. To establish that this was a revolutionary change, there would need to be evidence of broader trends affecting the whole group of pitchers. Maybe that evidence is there, but we ought to see it before accepting that there was a radical, career-disrupting break here.

Third: Isn't it arguable that the role of the pitcher changed as much or more between 1875 and 1885 as it did between 1885 and 1895? If we are serious about comparing pitchers only in groups for whom "pitching meant the same thing," how could we toss Al Spalding in with the 1880s pitchers. If you look at the rate of Ks and BBs during his prime, it's radically different from the 1880s, much more so than the difference between the 1880s and 1890s. Why gloss over this difference while placing so much weight on the pitching distance change? Isn't switching from underhand to overhand delivery even more significant (not to mention other pitching distance changes -- see the argument that Tommy Bond's career was wrecked b/c of pitching distance change). If we can work through these issues to group Spalding with 1880s guys, because having a group with only one player is of pretty limited value for rankings, why can't we work through the issues separating 50-foot hurlers from 60-foot hurlers?

Furthermore:

I like Howie's idea of ranking them in groups first, and then voting for a top 20 combining all groups. Would be best of both worlds, right?

If the groups are not the same size, the only way to do this responsibly will be to have a free-for-all vote, which will require us to rank all the pitchers from all the eras together. If we are ultimately going to do that, why not just do that in the first place? Either we have the skill to rank pitchers from different eras against one another, or we don't.

If we do have that capability, then the division of the pitchers into groups is ultimately pragmatic, and should be done in ways that produce substantial ballots covering broad but still meaningful periods of baseballl history.

if we don't have that capability, and the division of pitchers into groups is necessary to produce meaningful rankings in the first place, then how could we combine them later?

Bottom line: it is inconsistent to ague that we absolutely must not rank pitchers from period A against pitchers from period B and then argue that that we can combine the lists to generate an all-time top 20.

Myself, I like Howie's idea, but I view the groupings as pragmatic, so I think we should create groups that will give us a good basis for going into a second round, which would mean groups of about equal size, that begin the work of integrating different periods, since our goal is ultimately to integrate them all.
   428. OCF Posted: October 01, 2008 at 11:22 AM (#2962426)
Note that we're coming up on the regular 2009 HoM election (as in, will Rickey be unanimous?) - see Howie's post on the 2009 discussion thread. We shouldn't start the pitcher discussion until that election is over.

Oh, and Joe or John - can you fix the tags in Paul's #420, please?
   429. OCF Posted: October 01, 2008 at 11:23 AM (#2962430)
Dan's post, not Howie's - sorry about that.
   430. Juan V, posting on behalf of Juan V. Posted: October 21, 2008 at 06:29 PM (#2991416)
One thing I was thinking about... are we going to update the positional rankings to include the 2009 electees? If yes, how?
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