Wow. Jack Quinn is a tough one. Full credit for 1916-18 makes him a very serious candidate. It pushes him from .761 to .901 Pennants Added in my system.

Quinn has what I think is the highest relief bonus of any starting pitcher that I've run. He has an estimated leverage index of 1.27 over 739 relief IP. He was 55-35 (estimated there are errors in the 1969 MacMillan that have since been corrected, but it's tough to tell what is relief and starter in the corrections) with 57 saves.

So that gives him a boost. I've docked his Federal League seasons (.17 DERA dock for 1914, .28 for 1915 - that's larger than 1944-45 get docked typically).

Is it too much to give him the following:



The 1918 numbers above do not include his actual 51 IP that year for the White Sox.

In his 51 IP in 1918 he had a real DERA of 2.97 (according to my system, which deviates further from average for good years, because I'm using the proper exponents in the pythag portion). So I don't think it's unreasonable to give him that type of credit.

Those same numbers, with the surrounding years included for perspective:



Essentially, he's missing his peak because of his exile.

We are not projecting a peak here either. Well, sort of. His peak with this credit becomes 1917-1919, but 40% of that was compiled in MLB. He gets 14.3 WAR from 1917-1919. But from 1914-16 he's at 13.4, from 1918-20 he's at 13.0, 1922-24 is 13.3, 1926-28 is 11.9. So it's in the ballpark, and it does make sense that he'd be at least as good from age 33-35 as he was in his mid 40s.

So where does this put him?

Among the pitchers I've run, it vaults him from a group around Virgil Trucks, Bucky Walters, Urban Shocker, Bobo Newsom and Don Newcombe up to being between Bunning and Pierce - and much closer to Bunning.

The list:



I draw my in/out line at about .775. This accounts for pitcher hitting, as well as if the pitchers played other positions (Bucky Walters' position player years are included, etc.). I just use WS for those estimates and adjust for replacement level and convert them to runs in my system. It also accounts for those pitchers relief IP with an estimate for leverage index for pre-1960. Post 1960 I account for bullpen support, inherited runners and actual LI, all courtesy of Baseball Prospectus.

Quinn's peak is by far the lowest on the list only Wilhelm and Hoyt are close (no pun intended). He's ahead of Drysdale in overall wins 75.5-74.7, but that edge in PA is due to Drysdale's much higher peak. Quinn actually has more WAR (75.5-71.5) than Bunning. He just had a ton of career value. He's got 4463 tIP, which trails only Johnson. The next closest is Newsom with 3845.

I think I'm going to have him ranked very high on my ballot this week, unless someone can convince me I'm seriously overrating his 1916-18 PCL years. There's a lot of room for me overrating him and having him still pretty high on the list.

Just a quick additional note, league average is 4.50 for DERA. Also, I use 5.56 as replacement level for starters, 5.31 for relievers. I also zero out any seasons that would end up negative - I don't believe you can ever pitch your way out of the Hall of Merit. It's impossible to have negative value in a season if someone is willing to put you out there, IMO.

If you are just hopping into this thread on page 2, please go back and check post #100. If I'd realized that's where it was going to land, I'dve added a dead post to bump it to this page . . . whoops.

NOTE: pretty cool to have the keys - I fixed the issue :-)

Joe, I couldn't find any discussion among #1-99, though I'm sure it's in there somewhere, but what was the reason for Quinn's "exile"? Was he blacklisted for playing in the FL?

I ran him through and there isn't enough above average value for me to put him higher than 26th even after adjusting for PCL credit. That puts him in an off-ballot pack of:

Jose Mendez
Rube Waddell
Jack Quinn
Urban Shocker
Hilton Smith
Bobo Newsom
Dizzy Trout
Vic Willis
Dick Redding
Mickey Welch

It's getting crowded off the end of my ballot.

The discussion starts at post #64. Basically, he was on a truly awful Federal League team that made his record look worse than it was, and he signed on to the PCL. It looks more like unfortunate circumstances than anything else, but it is fair to say it wouldn't have happened in more recent times.