Will the Jet's candidacy take off or will it crash and burn?

I don't have my usual sources with me, but I found information posted by a Eric Enders and a Mr. Russell on btf at the time of Jethroe's death. I'm reposting the stats along with the link so everyone can check it out for themselves. Note that Jethroe had surgery to remvoe a stomach problem after his horrid 1952 season and was his usual self thereafter.
TIEE's Article on Jethroe and its responses

Year Lg Team G AB R H 2B 3B HR RBI BA SA TB SB
1944 NgL Cle 68 275 55 97 14 2 .353 .440 121 18
1945 NgL Cle 56 214 61 84 10 10 3 37 .393 .575 123 21
1946 NgL Cle 62 226 54 70 6 .310 20
1947 NgL Cle 306 90 108 35 10 7 .353 .601 184 52
1948 NgL Cle 47 186 61 55 13 4 5 30 .296 .489 91 29
1948 IL Mon 76 292 52 94 19 11 1 25 .322 .473 138 18
1949 IL Mon 153 635 154 207 34 19 17 83 .326 .520 330 89
1950 NL Bos 141 582 100 159 28 8 18 58 .273 .442 257 35
1951 NL Bos 148 572 101 160 29 10 18 65 .280 .460 263 35
1952 NL Bos 151 608 79 141 23 7 13 58 .232 .357 217 28
1953 IL Tol 145 543 137 168 32 10 28 74 .309 .560 304 27
1954 IL Tor 154 593 113 181 36 8 21 84 .305 .499 296 23
1955 IL Tor 145 485 88 127 16 4 16 66 .262 .410 199 24
1956 IL Tor 149 567 105 163 25 4 19 68 .287 .446 253 22
1957 IL Tor 130 451 83 125 16 6 15 39 .277 .439 198 24
1958 IL Tor 68 184 20 43 11 0 2 18 .234 .326 60 5
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I don't know where Mr. Russell got his numbers, but I'll double-check them this evening against Riley. I'll try to post about them and also post up Brown's numbers either tonight or tomorrow.

Jethroe is believed to have been born in January 1918 so he made his NeL debut at age 26. At the time of his ML debut he claimed to have been vorn in 1922. Some believe he was born before 1918.

So where was he before 1944 and could he possibly have some additional MLEs coming? I don't know the answer to either question.

After 1952 he probably was still a ML player but only for 1953 and '54, I'd guess. I mean he might under different circumstances have been given 1955 as a bench player but not any more.

So that makes maybe 12 years of MLEs unless we can determine something prior to '44.

His HR numbers are certainly interesting, however. One would have to conclude that the white world valued HR more so than the NeLs did, or else he just developed a power stroke real late.

OK, super quick and dirty version of Jethroe's MLEs. Using the data posted above, I applied the .90/.82 discount that Chris Cobb uses to Jethroe's NgL and IL seasons (figuring that for this purpose that would be close enough, though I'd like to get closer, so if someone thinks there's a better conversion rate for the 1950s IL, please say so). I redistributed the xBH based on his career xBH/H rates.

Where data was missing I tried to fill in using surrounding seasons or career norms.

Walk rate is based on his MLB walk rate which was roughly a walk for every 10 ABs.


YEAR AB H TB 2B 3B HR bb AVG obp SLG
-------------------------------------------------
1944 586 186 212 27 4 4 59 .318 .380 .361
1945 554 196 261 23 23 7 55 .354 .412 .472
1946 529 147 278 13 11 13 53 .279 .345 .526
1947 550 175 271 57 16 11 55 .318 .380 .493
1948 563 158 221 34 16 6 56 .281 .346 .393
1949 635 186 271 31 17 15 64 .293 .358 .426
1950 582 159 257 28 8 18 58 .273 .339 .442
1951 572 160 263 29 10 18 57 .280 .345 .460
1952 608 141 217 23 7 13 61 .232 .302 .357
1953 543 151 249 29 9 25 54 .278 .344 .459
1954 593 163 243 32 7 19 59 .275 .340 .409
1955 485 114 163 14 4 14 49 .236 .305 .336
1956 567 146 207 22 4 17 57 .258 .326 .366
1957 451 112 162 14 5 13 45 .249 .318 .360
1958 184 39 49 10 0 2 18 .211 .282 .267
=================================================
TOT 8003 2235 3275 386 139 196 800 .279 .345 .409
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I don't think this is a HOM-level player, however, I'm glad to at least have made sure of it. The only thing that could change my mind is if my Q&D;conversion rate for the IL is too low. That might make him look a little better, but unlikely to make him look good enough to jump into the 1958 three-inductee sweepstakes.

Doc,

>The only thing that could change my mind

Or if he was active at an MLE worthy rate before 1944 (age 26)??? I suspect somebody will tell us eventually.

Dr Chaleeko, is this a conversion into the ACTUAL 1944-45 ML, or into a hypothetical non-war ML? Probably not a HOM-relevant question here, but will be for e.g. Willard Brown.

It would seem likely (but you guys are more expert than me) that about the same proportion of NEL and ML players went into the services, so the factors remain the same, but the MLEs should be given a "Wartime discount" (and conversely those NEL players in the services in 1942-45 should be given credit for those years.)

is this a conversion into the ACTUAL 1944-45 ML, or into a hypothetical non-war ML?

Several of Chris Cobb's posted MLE's contain data from 1943-45. When calculating OPS+, I use the actual NL data from those years as a context. I have no idea if there is an implied discount that needs to be applied on top of that.

That's what I thought, in which case I think there should be a further discount, unless NEL players were for some reason drafted at wildly different rates from ML players, which would have had the effect of increasing NEL strength relative to ML.

karl, David didn't say there wasn't a WWII discount in the NeL/MLE calculations for '43-'45, he said he didn't know. Let's wait to find out which it is.

David didn't say there wasn't a WWII discount in the NeL/MLE calculations for '43-'45, he said he didn't know.

Yes. We were just pegging down the context level, not the talent level. For example, SLG numbers were down in the NL from 1941-46. (War years 43-45 are about the same context as 41,42,46) So a .400 translated SLG is worth more in this period than before or after.

Its nowhere near as drastic as the shift that occurred between 1930 and 1931, but little stuff like this can make some noticeable changes in OPS+.

But, yes, Chris does the hard part. I don't know how wartime play is handled in the MLE's.

I don't know what Chris does for 1943-1945, but I can tell you that these MLEs are not adjustd at all for the war.

Caveat: these are NOT Chris-Cobb-Certified MLEs, these are Doc's Quick and Dirty MLEs in a Bottle. Like liquid smoke, they are are designed to give you flavor, not authenticity. (As in, "he needs a longer look" or "I'm cool with remanding him deep into the backlog without going too much deeper.")

bump

Sam of course gets A+ for speed/stolen bases which helps his case, but with what looks like around a 100 OPS+, he's essentially Cool Papa Bell without the longevity...

I get a rough estimate of a career 104 OPS+ for Jethroe...