Baseball for the Thinking Fan

Login | Register | Feedback

btf_logo
You are here > Home > It's Mets...Just Mets > Discussion
It's Mets...Just Mets
— 

Wednesday, July 12, 2006

Mets at the Break

Sweet Fancy Moses!

A 12 game lead at the Break.  Are the 1914 Boston Braves in our division?  Good.

How good have the Mets been?  Here are the Mets players compared against average:

  Pos   Name    Last      Team    XRpt    RSpt  Totalpt  XR/150  RS/150 Total/150
   1B   Carlos  Delgado   NYM      4       3       7       7       5       12
   1B   Julio   Franco    NYM      -4      -2      -6     -24     -24     -48
   2B   Jose    Valentin  NYM      5       3       8       15      11      26
   2B   Chris   Woodward  NYM      -4      -1      -5     -18      22      4
   3B   David   Wright    NYM      21     -11      10      37     -19      18
   C    Ramon   Castro    NYM      2       1       3       11      4       15
   C    Paul    LoDuca    NYM      3       -3      0       7       -7      0
   CF   Carlos  Beltran   NYM      31      7       38      63      14      77
   LF   Cliff   Floyd     NYM      0       6       6       0       17      17
   LF   LastingsMilledge  NYM      -3      -3      -6     -19     -11     -30
   RF   Endy    Chavez    NYM      -2      9       7       -7      32      26
   RF   Xavier  Nady      NYM      0       -3      -3      0       -7      -7
   SS   Jose    Reyes     NYM      21      6       27      35      10      46

The total there is 156 runs above average.

The relievers are posting a sweet 3.24 ERA, the lowest in the league.  The starters aren’t doing so well - 4.47, good for fifth, but much of that is Lima. 

Now we have to come out of the break strong, starting with six on the road at the Cubs and at the Reds.  The matchups are delightful: Trax vs. Maddux; Glavine vs. Zambrano and El Duque vs. Mark Prior.

Pedro on the DL

Pedro’s DL assignment was retroactive to June 29, the day after his start against the Red Sox. He will be eligible to come off the DL on July 14 and pitch in the Mets’ first game following the All-Star break, in Chicago.  However, there is no indication that he would pitch that day, or even that he will be activated.  I don’t know when he’ll be back, but hopefully before too long.

Here is the MLB.com’s Midseason Report.

Chris Dial Posted: July 12, 2006 at 09:16 PM | 18 comment(s)
  Related News: NY Mets

Reader Comments and Retorts

Go to end of page

Statements posted here are those of our readers and do not represent the BaseballThinkFactory. Names are provided by the poster and are not verified. We ask that posters follow our submission policy. Please report any inappropriate comments.

Page 1 of 1 pages
   1. Chris Dial Posted: July 12, 2006 at 11:08 PM (#2097264)
The formatting worked! Thanks, Harold!
   2. Sam M. Posted: July 12, 2006 at 11:27 PM (#2097273)
However, there is no indication that he would pitch that day, or even that he will be activated. I don’t know when he’ll be back, but hopefully before too long.

Actually, Chris, there have been articles (here's one, on Mets.com) indicating that the plan, at least, is to activate him to pitch in the fifth game after the break, against the Reds in Cincinnati on July 19th. The same article says a decision on Maine v. Pelfrey is expected tomorrow (i.e., Thursday the 13th), and that whomever they choose will take the start in Cincinnati on the 18th.

That's the blueprint, anyway. I assume that if Pedro is NOT ready, then it'll be Maine AND Pelfrey in the first two games against the Reds.
   3. billyshears Posted: July 13, 2006 at 12:22 AM (#2097302)
So I just finished watching David Wright on Letterman and I might have to take some of the things I've said about his power potential back. Dude is a big guy. He may not be Cliff Floyd big, but sitting next to Letterman, you could really tell how muscularly developed he is.
   4. Sam M. Posted: July 13, 2006 at 12:28 AM (#2097303)
I might have to take some of the things I've said about his power potential back.

Oh, no you don't, buddy. Too late to walk that one back. You are on the hook for a #### load of abuse.
   5. Шĥy Posted: July 13, 2006 at 12:41 AM (#2097309)
Maybe some of you were right when you said that Lo Duca calls a better game than Castro. From the SI article about the Mets:

That's not to say that communication is always clear. There was the time, for instance, when backup catcher Ramon Castro ("the class clown," as Lo Duca calls him) visited Wagner on the mound in a crucial situation against the Blue Jays.

"How about a coo-ba here?" is what Wagner, born in the rural mountains of Virginia, heard his Puerto Rican catcher say.

"A what?" Wagner asked.

"Coo-ba," Castro said.

"Curveball?" Wagner finally deciphered. "I don't have a curveball!"

"Well, O.K.," Castro said.
   6. AJM Posted: July 13, 2006 at 12:48 AM (#2097312)
"I don't have a curveball!"

Castro's a genius! A curveball would've completely caught the hitter off guard!
   7. Russlan roots for the mediocre Mets Posted: July 13, 2006 at 12:53 AM (#2097313)
Do you got a link to that article?

Wow, Wright's defensive rating is the suck. If these ratings are correct, Jose Reyes is a better player than David Wright and by a pretty wide margin. Honestly, I think Wright has issues defensively but I think that's a bit harsh. That said, Jose Reyes has certainly made a lot of progress this season both defensively and offensively whereas Wright's defense has not.
   8. Russlan roots for the mediocre Mets Posted: July 13, 2006 at 12:58 AM (#2097316)
BTW, I guess David Wright is becoming the Mets' Jeter, with the excellent hitting and the bad defense.
   9. Sam M. Posted: July 13, 2006 at 12:59 AM (#2097317)
If these ratings are correct, Jose Reyes is a better player than David Wright and by a pretty wide margin.

Well, remember here, these ratings are against average, which I assume (Chris can correct me if I'm wrong -- he rarely hesitates to do that, I've noticed) means positional average -- and I assume NL positional average. Which means David Wright is being measured against some pretty damned heady company in calculating those averages . . . . For him to be as much above the average 3B (offensively) as Reyes is above the average SS is one hell of an accomplishment, really.

But yeah, Wright's got to put that work ethic to work on the defense and bring himself up to that positional average (or at least at lot closer to it).
   10. billyshears Posted: July 13, 2006 at 01:09 AM (#2097319)
In all seriousness Sam, if you read some of what I've written on this, you'll see that I never was disparaging Wright. My position has always been that for Wright to be a super elite offensive player (as opposed to merely elite), he would have to maintain a batting average of over .330 because, based on his physique, I didn't think he had the power potential to hit over 40 HRs/season on a consistent basis. That made me nervous because hitting .330 is really hard and BA is more prone to random fluctuation than any other important statistic.

To be honest, there are certain things about Wright's season that still do make me nervous. He is hitting for more power but his BB/PA ratio is down and his K/AB ratio is up from last season. He is striking out almost twice as much as he walks, yet he is hitting .316. I know that hitters exert control on that sort of thing much more than pitchers, but that's still a hard pace to maintain. Try to find another consistently top ten offensive player whose peripherals match that profile - it's hard to do.

Of the top 20 hitters in baseball by OPS, Wright has fewer walks than all but Jermaine Dye, Nomar Garciaparra, Joe Mauer, Scott Rolen, Matt Holliday, Vernon Wells, Alexis Rios and Paul Konerko. Of those eight players, only Alexis Rios and Matt Holliday have a worse BB/K rate than Wright.

There's a part of me that thinks Wright is the type of player that will find a way to get it done one way or another but there's another part of me that is worried that Wright may have to follow a very narrow path to super stardom and that his peripherals don't match his production. I still love the guy and I really, really want to believe (and maybe Darryl Strawberry broke my heart too badly to ever allow myself to get so wrapped in a baseball player so completely again) but I still think we have to wait and see a little bit.
   11. Russlan roots for the mediocre Mets Posted: July 13, 2006 at 01:09 AM (#2097320)
Why wouldn't these ratings be against the major league average?
   12. Russlan roots for the mediocre Mets Posted: July 13, 2006 at 01:20 AM (#2097323)
Billy, I wouldn't worry too much about the peripherals Wright is putting up for a few reasons. For one thing, Wright has increased his home run rate enough that it makes the increase in strikeouts not that big a deal. Also, walks aren't the goal. The walks will come if a hitter has a good approach and Wright certainly has that. Finally, the difference in Wright's walk rate from this year to last year really isn't that drastic especially for such a small sample.
   13. Raskolnikov Posted: July 13, 2006 at 01:46 AM (#2097330)
I still love the guy and I really, really want to believe (and maybe Darryl Strawberry broke my heart too badly to ever allow myself to get so wrapped in a baseball player so completely again)

Do you mean that you're afraid that Wright will fall off the path because of immaturity and poor personal choices? To me, it's one of the least worrying aspects about Wright. If it's concern about fulfilling physical potential, Straw did reach that in his peak. Some of the perception of Straw never reaching his promise was due to the unrealistic expectations that we all heaped on him, but Straw was a superstar before the crash.

As for Wright's BB/K ratios, it's a bit worrisome but I'd attribute it to Wright's aggressiveness and inexperience. He has an excellent batting eye, but often will try to do too much even with two strikes. I would expect that as he ages, he'll get more respect from the umpires and will figure out his own limitations. He's already exceeded my expectations of his power ceiling, and the Derby showed that it's legit. He has all the fundamentals and proper tools to be a fantastic hitter.
   14. AJM Posted: July 13, 2006 at 01:54 AM (#2097332)
Wright ranks in the top 10 in the NL in BA, SLG, OPS, HR, RBI, H, and RC (second, .5 behind Pujols). In the top 20 in OBP, RS, 2B, 3B, and SB.

Beltran ranks in the top 10 in SLG, OPS, RS, HR, RBI, BB, and RC. In the top 20 in OBP, and SB.

Reyes is first in RS, 3B, and SB. He's second in hits. And he's 10th in RC.

I have no point other than to show how awesome they've been this year. And yes I know everyone already knows that, but I was surprised at how many different stats they ranked highly in.
   15. Raskolnikov Posted: July 13, 2006 at 02:01 AM (#2097334)
I think that Beltran tends to be underrated. As those numbers show, and he ranks well in many other metrics, there really isn't anything that Beltran doesn't do well. He's the most complete player in the game.
   16. Chris Dial Posted: July 13, 2006 at 09:19 AM (#2097433)
There is no doubt Beltan is underrated this season. Beltran is arguably the *BEST PLAYER IN THE LEAGUE*.

That's what we paid for - we paid for the 2004 playoff carlos, and this year we are getting him.
   17. Rob Base Posted: July 13, 2006 at 09:34 AM (#2097444)
Here's the thing about Wright and strikeouts. I can't decide if I've mentioned it before. You know all of those extra-base hits on 2 strikes we're always hearing about? Well, David doesn't shorten up on his swing, doesn't protect, doesn't swing defensively *at all* when he gets to 2 strikes. It's the same *very* long swing, that looks like he couldn't possibly move the bat fast enough to make *any* contact (though obviously he can and does) that he uses when he's up 3-1. So, he strikes out a lot.

He'll club the ball more than most when he's behind in the count, but the Ks may be an inevitable byproduct of that approach. So far I'd say it's working pretty well.
   18. Chris Dial Posted: July 13, 2006 at 10:16 AM (#2097476)
Well, David doesn't shorten up on his swing, doesn't protect, doesn't swing defensively *at all* when he gets to 2 strikes.

I disagree. I think he does shorten up and punches the ball more to RF with 2 strikes *and runners on base*

Frinstance, and I recognize these aren't huge sample sizes, Wright has struck out 20% of the time with the bases empty (200 PAs) and just 17% with ROB (180 PAs).

There is some decrease there that isn't present on the rest of the team (19% K's EMP and ROB).
Page 1 of 1 pages

You must be Registered and Logged In to post comments.

 

<< Back to main

Support BBTF

donate

My Bookmarks

You must be logged in to view your Bookmarks.

Hot Topics

Because You Are Bad At It
(55 - 12:09am, Jun 21)

MLB Mandates Vambraces
(33 - 11:38am, Mar 20)

Kong
(95 - 12:34am, Jan 13)

Sector One Cleared
(25 - 12:50pm, Oct 01)

Five Down, One to Go
(24 - 1:27am, Sep 03)

Four Down, Two to go
(15 - 5:35pm, Aug 08)

Mets at the Break
(18 - 10:16am, Jul 13)

Three down, Three to go
(14 - 12:20pm, Jul 10)

Wrighting the Ship
(10 - 8:05am, Jun 27)

Two Down, Four to Go
(34 - 1:19am, Jun 09)

One Down, Five to Go
(74 - 2:46pm, Jun 02)

One More Year?
(31 - 3:49pm, May 30)

Hot Dogs and Apple Pie
(145 - 8:54am, May 25)

Three Weeks Later...
(23 - 10:50am, May 22)

Vivid Seats is a sports ticket broker, concert ticket broker and theater ticket broker offering the best baseball tickets like Yankees tickets, Cubs tickets, and Red Sox tickets, as well as Police reunion tour tickets and Jersey Boys tickets.

Ticket Nest sells Braves, Cubs, Padres, Indians, Marlins, Nuts, Pirates, Rangers, Patriots, Royals, Stars, Tides, Tigers, Twins, Phillies, Wings, Mets, Yankees, Angels, Dodgers tickets, and Dragons tickets.

Buy Cheap MLB Tickets

Concerts Theatre NFL Angels Dodgers MLB Celtics Theater NBA Tickets Venues NHL Lakers Tickets NFL Yankees NHL Phillies NBA Wicked Marlins MLB Concerts Cubs Mets Red Sox Wicked WWE Red Sox Mets Yankees Dodgers

Page rendered in 0.4158 seconds
61 querie(s) executed