Mets at the Break
Sweet Fancy Moses!
A 12 game lead at the Break. Are the 1914 Boston Braves in our division? Good.
How good have the Mets been? Here are the Mets players compared against average:
Pos Name Last Team XRpt RSpt Totalpt XR/150 RS/150 Total/150
1B Carlos Delgado NYM 4 3 7 7 5 12
1B Julio Franco NYM -4 -2 -6 -24 -24 -48
2B Jose Valentin NYM 5 3 8 15 11 26
2B Chris Woodward NYM -4 -1 -5 -18 22 4
3B David Wright NYM 21 -11 10 37 -19 18
C Ramon Castro NYM 2 1 3 11 4 15
C Paul LoDuca NYM 3 -3 0 7 -7 0
CF Carlos Beltran NYM 31 7 38 63 14 77
LF Cliff Floyd NYM 0 6 6 0 17 17
LF LastingsMilledge NYM -3 -3 -6 -19 -11 -30
RF Endy Chavez NYM -2 9 7 -7 32 26
RF Xavier Nady NYM 0 -3 -3 0 -7 -7
SS Jose Reyes NYM 21 6 27 35 10 46
The total there is 156 runs above average.
The relievers are posting a sweet 3.24 ERA, the lowest in the league. The starters aren’t doing so well - 4.47, good for fifth, but much of that is Lima.
Now we have to come out of the break strong, starting with six on the road at the Cubs and at the Reds. The matchups are delightful: Trax vs. Maddux; Glavine vs. Zambrano and El Duque vs. Mark Prior.
Pedro on the DL
Pedro’s DL assignment was retroactive to June 29, the day after his start against the Red Sox. He will be eligible to come off the DL on July 14 and pitch in the Mets’ first game following the All-Star break, in Chicago. However, there is no indication that he would pitch that day, or even that he will be activated. I don’t know when he’ll be back, but hopefully before too long.
Here is the MLB.com’s Midseason Report.
Chris Dial
Posted: July 12, 2006 at 09:16 PM |
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Actually, Chris, there have been articles (here's one, on Mets.com) indicating that the plan, at least, is to activate him to pitch in the fifth game after the break, against the Reds in Cincinnati on July 19th. The same article says a decision on Maine v. Pelfrey is expected tomorrow (i.e., Thursday the 13th), and that whomever they choose will take the start in Cincinnati on the 18th.
That's the blueprint, anyway. I assume that if Pedro is NOT ready, then it'll be Maine AND Pelfrey in the first two games against the Reds.
Oh, no you don't, buddy. Too late to walk that one back. You are on the hook for a #### load of abuse.
That's not to say that communication is always clear. There was the time, for instance, when backup catcher Ramon Castro ("the class clown," as Lo Duca calls him) visited Wagner on the mound in a crucial situation against the Blue Jays.
"How about a coo-ba here?" is what Wagner, born in the rural mountains of Virginia, heard his Puerto Rican catcher say.
"A what?" Wagner asked.
"Coo-ba," Castro said.
"Curveball?" Wagner finally deciphered. "I don't have a curveball!"
"Well, O.K.," Castro said.
Castro's a genius! A curveball would've completely caught the hitter off guard!
Wow, Wright's defensive rating is the suck. If these ratings are correct, Jose Reyes is a better player than David Wright and by a pretty wide margin. Honestly, I think Wright has issues defensively but I think that's a bit harsh. That said, Jose Reyes has certainly made a lot of progress this season both defensively and offensively whereas Wright's defense has not.
Well, remember here, these ratings are against average, which I assume (Chris can correct me if I'm wrong -- he rarely hesitates to do that, I've noticed) means positional average -- and I assume NL positional average. Which means David Wright is being measured against some pretty damned heady company in calculating those averages . . . . For him to be as much above the average 3B (offensively) as Reyes is above the average SS is one hell of an accomplishment, really.
But yeah, Wright's got to put that work ethic to work on the defense and bring himself up to that positional average (or at least at lot closer to it).
To be honest, there are certain things about Wright's season that still do make me nervous. He is hitting for more power but his BB/PA ratio is down and his K/AB ratio is up from last season. He is striking out almost twice as much as he walks, yet he is hitting .316. I know that hitters exert control on that sort of thing much more than pitchers, but that's still a hard pace to maintain. Try to find another consistently top ten offensive player whose peripherals match that profile - it's hard to do.
Of the top 20 hitters in baseball by OPS, Wright has fewer walks than all but Jermaine Dye, Nomar Garciaparra, Joe Mauer, Scott Rolen, Matt Holliday, Vernon Wells, Alexis Rios and Paul Konerko. Of those eight players, only Alexis Rios and Matt Holliday have a worse BB/K rate than Wright.
There's a part of me that thinks Wright is the type of player that will find a way to get it done one way or another but there's another part of me that is worried that Wright may have to follow a very narrow path to super stardom and that his peripherals don't match his production. I still love the guy and I really, really want to believe (and maybe Darryl Strawberry broke my heart too badly to ever allow myself to get so wrapped in a baseball player so completely again) but I still think we have to wait and see a little bit.
Do you mean that you're afraid that Wright will fall off the path because of immaturity and poor personal choices? To me, it's one of the least worrying aspects about Wright. If it's concern about fulfilling physical potential, Straw did reach that in his peak. Some of the perception of Straw never reaching his promise was due to the unrealistic expectations that we all heaped on him, but Straw was a superstar before the crash.
As for Wright's BB/K ratios, it's a bit worrisome but I'd attribute it to Wright's aggressiveness and inexperience. He has an excellent batting eye, but often will try to do too much even with two strikes. I would expect that as he ages, he'll get more respect from the umpires and will figure out his own limitations. He's already exceeded my expectations of his power ceiling, and the Derby showed that it's legit. He has all the fundamentals and proper tools to be a fantastic hitter.
Beltran ranks in the top 10 in SLG, OPS, RS, HR, RBI, BB, and RC. In the top 20 in OBP, and SB.
Reyes is first in RS, 3B, and SB. He's second in hits. And he's 10th in RC.
I have no point other than to show how awesome they've been this year. And yes I know everyone already knows that, but I was surprised at how many different stats they ranked highly in.
That's what we paid for - we paid for the 2004 playoff carlos, and this year we are getting him.
He'll club the ball more than most when he's behind in the count, but the Ks may be an inevitable byproduct of that approach. So far I'd say it's working pretty well.
I disagree. I think he does shorten up and punches the ball more to RF with 2 strikes *and runners on base*
Frinstance, and I recognize these aren't huge sample sizes, Wright has struck out 20% of the time with the bases empty (200 PAs) and just 17% with ROB (180 PAs).
There is some decrease there that isn't present on the rest of the team (19% K's EMP and ROB).
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