One More Year?
Tom Glavine posted his eighth win yesterday. He’s made eleven starts. He’s thrown seventy-three innings. Very impressive.
The Mets re-structured Glavine’s contract for options on the 2007 season (From Newsday):
“Enter Glavine, whose initial contract was set to expire after 2006, prompting the two sides to work out another deal with deferred money that added a team option for 2007.
The Mets can bring Glavine back for $12 million, or if they choose not to, he can activate a player option for $5.5 million that could grow to $8.5 million if he pitches 200 innings. The team option climbs to $14 million if Glavine reaches 180 innings, and the reworked contract includes a $3-million buyout to cover the deferred money.”
One more year. Okay, there is a rumor that Ken Rosenthal likes to push that the Mets would “let” Glavine return to the Braves to win his 300th next season, but that doesn’t sound like something that would go through.
Tom Glavine won his eighth game yesterday in his eleventh start. He’s averaged 33 starts for the Mets, but averaged 35 starts the three years before coming to the Mets. The Mets have played 48 games. They have 114 more. Glavine starts every 4.4 games. That makes him “on pace” for 37 starts. Is that interesting? Kind of.
CURRENT SEASON STATS
Year W L G GS CG SHO IP H R ER HR BB SO ERA
2006 8 2 11 11 0 0 73.0 58 23 21 5 22 60 2.59
Proj 27 7 37 37 0 0 246 196 78 71 17 74 203 2.59
He’s got 283 wins. He needs seventeen more this season to reach 300. He can do it this season, and with relative ease. Once you get eight wins under your belt, the next seventeen are a snap. Even knocking off three starts, he’s got an excellent shot at twenty-five wins. Is it gong to be easy? Of course not. Th Mets have a good offense, a good defense and Glavine is pitching as well as he has in his career. The Mets look like they’ll win 90+ games, and someone has to get credit for them.
One more year to reach 300? Who needs it?
Chris Dial
Posted: May 28, 2006 at 11:53 AM |
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Excellent? I don't think anyone ever has an excellent shot at twenty wins.
Excellent? I don't think anyone ever has an excellent shot at twenty wins.
For the rest of his career.
Considering Glavine has posted a 119 ERA+ his last two years and is now, at the age of 40, striking out almost a guy per inning, odds are very good.
But he could certainly win 20, with enough good luck. And that will set him up for us ALL to find out if Rosenthal is right that there is a tacit agreement to let him return to Atlanta if he wants.
Well, I dunno about that. From what Chris cites above, Glavine's gonna cost the Mets $14 M next year. Will his 300th win be worth it?
Granted, it's not clear whether what Chris wrote means "if Glavine pitches 180 innings this year, then the option price goes up to $14 M" or it means "if the Mets exercise the $12 M option and Glavine pitches 180 innings next year, he makes an extra $2M."
Walt, if Tom Glavine wins 20 games for the Mets this year, and they then let him go to the Braves, even though they had an option they could have exercised to keep him, it will be because there had been an understanding in place beforehand. There is no way the Mets let a one-year salary (even one like that) stand in the way of keeping a 20-game winner away from their key division rival, unless it was agreed in advance as the price of Glavine deferring money this year when he restructured his deal a month or so ago.
He is in about as good a position as he can be.
Is it likely? No, but he's got a real chance at it.
He's in about the same position as Glavine.
Glavine is old, wins are a team stat, and no pitcher has won 25 games since 1990. Only three have done it since 1978. I would say, just guessing, that Pujols has about a 50% chance to hit 60 homers this year, whereas Glavine has about a 1% chance of winning 25 games. That's hardly in the same position.
I'm sorry, is that 12 total or 12 more (total of 20, not 17)?
I think Pujols hitting 60 is far more likely, but I think you vastly overestimate his chance of hitting 60 HR. He needs 36 to do it in four months, and I believe only once in his career has he done that. Sure, he could be establishing a new level for himself, and he's at an age where that could easily be happening, but I think it's far short of a 50/50 proposition.
Now Pujols doesn't have full control over how many HRs he hits (he has to get the pitches) but it's probably somewhere in the range of 80%. Glavine probably has, at most, 50% control over whether or not he wins. I don't see how a reasonable person could say their chances of reaching a milestone are the same.
The fact that Glavine doesn't control all the variables does not necessarily impact the probability of his wins occurring (or at least does not impact it in a predictable way). I'm not saying Dial is right (though I think his post is tongue in cheek), but your conclusion doesn't follow from your premises.
But the Pujols HR chase is pretty much all up to Pujols. If he has the talent (or whatever you want to call it) to hit 60, 70, 80 HR this season, he's pretty much going to do it. The correlation between his capacity for hitting those HRs and them being hit is very strong. Glavine might have the talent to win 25 games this season on merit, but the correlation between pitching well enough to deserve a win and actually winning is far weaker.
I do agree that if Glavine wins 20 games (or, hell, has a 20 win caliber season, regardless of his support) and the Mets look like contenders next year (which I assume they will), they would be nuts to let him go to the Braves.
That, or I am overanalyzing a jest post :)
That's probably an accurate statement, but, as you point out, we don't know which way his win total will deviate from his ERA (or similar/better indicator of personal performance).
Glavine's 500 OBP vs. Pedro's 095 explains at least some of the difference in their W-L records so far. Continuing to hit like that (no sure thing of course) will make 25 easier.
Completely different time in his career. Glavine was at that point a pivotal figure in the union, which was leaning heavily on players not to leave one thin dime on the table. For Glavine to give the Braves any sort of a home town discount would have been just impossible -- despite which he damn near did it, he wanted to stay so badly.
Now, assuming he ends 2006 within 6-8 wins of 300, it's a matter of not where he gets CLOSE to 300. It's where he actually gets the 300th win itself. And that may have a lot of real weight for Glavine. Plus, this next contract won't be nearly as significant to the MLBPA as Glavine's last "big" deal was.
Like I said, none of us really know whether there is some understanding in place. But it would be totally consistent with the Mets' M.O. if there is. It is just the way Wilpon is wired to have him say, "Tommy, I know how much winning 300 in Atlanta would mean to you. If when the time comes, that's what you want, we won't stand in the way." It's much the same impulse that makes him want to build New Ebbetts Field. If he ends up back with the Braves in 2007, we'll know in hindsight there was a deal in place. Until then, we can only guess. But my guess is yes.
Mets call up Lastings Milledge. Nady on the DL following an emergency appendectomy last night.
Let me be the first to say it: That X Nady. A Pipp of a guy.
Anyone have a reference?
-- MWE
The Mets' TV network, SportsNet New York, was the first to report it on its website.
12 more for a total of 20.
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