Three Weeks Later…
The last three weeks haven’t seen the best baseball from the Mets, and most of it is due to a destroyed back-end of the rotation.
TEAM W L PCT GB HOME ROAD L-10 STREAK
Mets 24 16 0.600 - 12-6 12-10 3-7 L-2
Philly 22 18 0.550 2 12-11 10-7 6-4 L-3
Atlanta 21 20 0.512 3.5 12-6 9-14 8-2 W-4
Wash. 14 27 0.341 10.5 3-10 11-17 4-6 W-1
Florida 11 28 0.282 12.5 3-14 8-14 3-7 L-4
The Mets have played 0.500 ball, while the Braves and Phils have crept closer. The Braves took advantage of the Fish, coming from behind in the ninth inning twice in sweeping Florida. The upcoming weekend is troubling, as the Mets face the JV squad across town, while the Braves play Arizona. The Phillies will have their hands full with the Beantowners.
What has gone Right
Jose Reyes. Yes, I’ve been annoyed about some of the “swing at the first pitch” PAs he has, but in my preview, I was saying he could get a 0.320 OBP, and we’d do okay. Well, he is at 0.324. Yes, it is annoying, but he is “on pace” for 125 runs scored. That’s a good sign.
Tom Glavine. 6-2 with a 2.43 ERA? That’s the Tom Glavine we paid for a few years ago. Now he’s going to be extended? Sweet.
Aaron Heilman/Duaner Sanchez/Billy Wagner. 65 IP with a 1.75 ERA.
Carlos Beltran. 0.992 OPS, and a lot of that is OBP. And he’s hit 10 home runs. He hit 16 in 2005. I’m pretty confident he’s going to be a lot better in 2006, and that’s going to lift the entire team.
Carlos Delgado. 0.956 OPS. He’s posted between a 0.907 and 1.019 over the last five seasons, and will do it again this year. That’s a lot better than the 0.750 the Mets got from first base in 2005.
David Wright. He’s awesome.
What has gone Wrong
Jose Lima has made 3 starts. He’s managed a 10 ERA. No other starter has been given this much latitude over the last couple of seasons. James Baldwin and Scott Erickson were both given the tap after two starts that sucked this bad. Lima hasn’t had any luck, but he hasn’t pitched very well either. I’d rather the Mets give a AAA pitcher that *might* suck a chance as opposed to Lima is will more than likely suck.
Fifth Starter. We got nothing. That is a large problem because it almost insures management will do something stupid with prospects in an effort to plug the gap, rather than just biting the bullet and getting the arbitration clock started early on some kids. Even if someone isn’t “ready”, how much worse can they be than Lima and Gonzalez? At least they are free, are learning on the job, and won’t cost the Mets additional prospects.
Cliff Floyd. Are you kidding me? Hitting 0.198? An OPS in the mid-0.5s? That’s brutal. He says it is all mental, and his swing is fine. Let’s hope he gets his head out of his ass real soon.
David Wright only has five home runs. He hasn’t hit one in May. Come on now, King David, let’s see some pop against the Yankees!
Paul LoDuca has a lower CS rate than Mike Piazza. Okay, that’s not true (18.8% to 11.4%). But on the other hand, he’s not Dioner Navarro, who is 0-16. That’s right; no caught stealings in 200 innings.
Fun to Know
Delgado’s next home run will tie him with Larry Walker for 50th all-time. Wagner is 8 saves from 300. Glavine is 4 strikeouts from Dennis Eckersley and 39th place on the all-time list.
The Mets have played 40 games and Reyes has led off in 39 of them. That’s good.
The Mets are 20-1 when leading after 7 innings. That’s lights out for the opponent, and a good sign of a good team. The lineup isn’t susceptible to LHPs nor RHPs.
This Week
Three with the Yankees, three with Philadelphia and three at Florida.
The Phillies have three with Boston, three at Shea and three with Milwaukee (which they don’t seem to like).
The Braves have three with Arizona, three with San Diego and three with the Cubs. All of Atlanta’s games are on the road where they are 9-14 thus far.
Let’s go, Mets.
Chris Dial
Posted: May 18, 2006 at 10:02 PM |
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2.75 ERA, 15 hits, 22/3 k/bb, no homers in 19.2 IP.
I'd call him up.
“I thought he did a pretty good job. He had one or two innings there where he was a little bit shaky…but, he kept us in the game and did a pretty good job.”
Just saying is all.
I forgot to put in there that Bannister only made it through 5 pitches today.
NOT IT!
I agree with this, yet I would say that we don't know anything about Lima that we didn't know before these 3 starts. Given him just one start seemed almost impossible so, if you were willing to give him a 1st, why not a 4th?
You should change this title to 'What has gone Wright'
Actually, there is. As I argued in the Bannister thread, his numbers at AA are deceptive. His first start was against New Hampshire, which has the worst group of hitters in the EL. His second start was at Altoona, which has a pretty good offense, and he was decent but not overpowering. His third start was at Norwalk, which is a hitters' graveyard.
He has a 2.75 ERA through three starts in a league where eight *teams* out of 12 are at 3.33 or better (and that includes all of the mopup pitchers as well as the front line pitchers). That's good, but in context hardly dominant - and pitchers who aren't dominant at AA rarely jump to the majors and pitch well.
Evan MacLane (who's 23) is scheduled to pitch against Toledo tonight, for the second time. He's pitched 14 innings with an 0.64 ERA in two AAA starts, allowing 7 hits and posting a 16/1 K/BB ratio. He wasn't especially good at Binghamton earlier, although he did post a 25/2 K/BB ratio in 33 innings in four starts for the BMets, but he's posted respectable numbers in his minor league career and he's (so far, at least) getting AAA hitters out. I'd try him before I'd try Soler.
-- MWE
-- MWE
For him to work in MLB, he has to manage more than 13 IP with <9 ERA over three starts. That's not some showstopper- it's really just stopping the guy we've got going.
And as he is 26, he isn't likely to be a long-twerm investment critical to the success of the franchise.
Hopefully, this is really Glavine figuring something out, and not just one last hurrah.
I'm serious, BTW. I am a Glavine fan, even if he is pitching for the Mets, and want there to be no question as to whether he makes the HOF.
First of all, he's pitching in AA, not AAA.
Second, "better than Lima" shouldn't be the standard. What should be the standard is "how likely is this guy to pitch 5-6 innings every fifth day and give us a chance to win?" Right now, I agree, Lima's about as close to 0% as you get. But do you want to replace him with someone who "right now" isn't much better than an average AA starter? How much above 0% does that push you?
At this stage in his development, I believe that Soler isn't likely to push that number very much higher. He needs to pitch in environments where he's likely to succeed for a while longer - and not be pushed into one where there's a fairly high likelihood of failure. The Mets have other options available to them; Soler would be about option 4 or 5, IMO.
-- MWE
Every start you give to Jose Lima is a message to your team, your competitors,and your fans, of non-seriousness.
The Mets have better options. Alay Soler is a better option (Mike says he's # 4 or # 5; I don't see the better three, and I certainly don't see the four that are better. But however many there are, Jose Lima is NOT one of them.) Mike Pelfrey is a better option. Gen. Hayden is a better option; at least he'd listen in on the phone calls between the opposing advance scouts and their hitters and he'd have some clue what to throw. Even MacLane is a better option. Shirley MacLane is a better option; she has more lives left than Jose Lima.
Omar Minaya has no excuse for not being able to find some AAAA pitcher in some other system he can acquire cheap who can at least go 5 innings once in a very great while. It is just GM 101, ain't it? Even he gets held up to some extent because of the circumstances, that shouldn't cost him all that much.
Back to tending to family nonsense. See you guys later.
His name is Aaron Heilman, folks.
-- MWE
I think J(GHU)G is keeping a seat warm for the next week or so, and then we'll see Mike (Bats In The) Pelfrey up here soon.
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