Two Down, Four to Go
The standings:
TEAM W L PCT GB HOME ROAD L-10 STREAK
NY Mets 32 20 .615 - 18-9 14-11 7-3 W-1
Atlanta 28 26 .519 5 13-9 15-17 6-4 L-1
Phil. 27 25 .519 5 16-16 11-9 5-5 L-1
Wash. 22 32 .407 11 10-13 12-19 6-4 W-1
Florida 17 34 .333 14.5 9-17 8-17 6-4 L-1
As I type this, the Phillies are getting thumped by the Dodgers 7-0 in the fifth inning. In a month, the Braves and Phils moved up a game. Not bad considering Pedro didn’t win a single game all month and Jose Lima made a few starts, posting a 9 ERA. That’s not bad at all.
That’s not even the good stuff. Xavier Nady had an appendectomy. Why would that be good news? Lastings Milledge, minor league stud, was called up to replace him. Milledge doubled for his first hit in his first game, playing right field against the Diamondbacks. His second game wasn’t so great, but his potential makes it exciting. He wore number 44. Beats me. He’s really only expected to be up while Nady is out - about two weeks - but hopefully he will hit well enough to get the Mets to trade Nady for anything else. As you may have read, I thought acquiring Nady was a bad move from the get go. This is a good team for Milledge to be on, as it is a good team, allowing him to hit eighth without any real expectations of production - nothing really more than what Nady could provide.
As I mentioned, Pedro went 0-1 with an ERA of 1.80 and a K:BB ratio of 10. That is terrifically poor run support. The Mets went 2-4 in those starts. Much of that is luck, but it doesn’t “even out” over the season, as Greg Maddux could tell you - some seasons one pitcher gets seven runs while another gets two. It just happens.
Speaking of which, Tom Glavine went 5-0, with seven runs per game of run support. Glavine didn’t need that much, as he posted a 2.94 ERA. With Glavine and Pedro anchoring the rotation, the Mets should be able to prevent any really bad slides.
The rest of the rotation must be watched wincingly. It’s pretty tough right now to watch the freshly acquired El Duque or “Starter Number 5 du jour.” Lefty Dave Williams was picked up from the Reds, but he has a spiffy 7 ERA coming over. El Duque has a 6 ERA, so neither has been a real steal, but it’s not Lima.
Steve Trachsel posted a poor ERA, but pitched well in two games, taking two hard losses, including a rain-shortened 2-0 “complete game” and a 1-0 loss at St. Louis. The games the Mets didn’t lose, Trax didn’t pitch well, but the Mets scored 8, 9, and 8 runs, winning all three of his NDs.
On offense, the Mets are still a bit uneven. Jose Reyes has already walked 21 times. He only walked 27 times in all of 2005. Unfortunately, he’s hitting 25 points lower than we all expect, so his OBP is still just around 0.310. Add 25 points of BA to that, and he’s passable as a leadoff guy thanks to his speed. He has stolen 20 bases already. That’s a good pace for 60 or so. Paul LoDuca still isn’t throwing anyone out defensively, but he’s hitting like he’s expected to. He’s also garnering a lot of plate appearances, and his track record is to drop like a stone after the All-Star Break, with a 2003-2005 September OPS of 0.535. Willie would be wise to get Ramon Castro more time in an effort to keep LoDuca a bit fresher later in the season. Plus Castro is pretty good.
Carlos Beltran is doing what he is supposed to - rake, and play good defense. Carlos Delgado is slumping - but Cliff Floyd is coming out of a long stink.
David Wright is awesome. That is all.
Second base for the Mets has been a terribly weak spot, but Jose Valentin has gotten new life and a few starts at second. He’s hit a few home runs and played pretty good, but not great, defense. Kaz Matsui was benched for him, so we’ll see how well Willie plays the hot hand.
The bullpen was terrific in April, but stumbled a bit in May. Billy Wagner had a godawful meltdown agains the Yankees, but has bounced back from that nicely. Aaron Heilman has struggled, and Duaner Sanchez gave up a handful of runs. Heath Bell had a nice outing, and Darren Oliver has pitched really well in a couple of marathon outings for a reliever. It looks like the pen will hold together.
The bullpen coach, Guy Conti, made an interesting comment during Pedro’s last start about releivers getting loose in the bullpen. He said Billy Wagner throws 12 warmup pitches. Not eleven. Not thirteen. Twelve. He also said Heath Bell gets loose fast, and those two were the fastest. He said everyone takes 15-25 pitches to get ready. I’ve never heard how many pitches the relievers throw, and I thought that was interesting.
Going forward, the Mets have to make a West Coast trip after a three-game set with the Giants, facing the Dodgers and the Diamondbacks again. Then three more with the Phillies before Interleague play kicks in. The Mets skip the Devil Rays this season, with games against Baltimore, Toronto, Boston and another series with the Yankees.
Five game lead on June 1. Looking good - keep it up!
Chris Dial
Posted: June 01, 2006 at 11:38 PM |
34 comment(s)
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How many do you want? I tend to write somethin when there's something I want to say.
And updates, IMO, get outdated pretty fast. I am open to suggestions.
I guess rather than write an article you could just post a topic, i.e., "Maine sould take the next start iver Soler. Discuss." But this stuff is usually covered in the chatters and the news articles so it may not be particularly useful.
Go to the Forums. There's an NL Team Lounge there for the Mets.
-- MWE
Actually, unless I completely miscounted just now (possible, but I did it twice) they've played 22 one-run games, and are 16-6 (.727) (14-2 at home, and 2-4 on the road.) They're only 16-14 in all other games.
Is this a concern? Perhaps, but I think it's a reflection of the back end of the rotation. They're going to lose some blow-outs with those clowns back there, and thus be pretty mediocre overall in the non-one-run situations. But with the strength at the front end, and in the bullpen, I think it's legitimate to think the Mets will continue to excel at winning close games. Probably not .727, but .600+ ball. And if we can get Bannister back, and decent work out of Hernandez (and get Pedro some runs), I'd expect the winning percentage in the other games to rise closer to that level.
The lesson, as always, don't count yourself if somebody else has already done it.
Yes, the Mets bullpen gives them an edge in one-run games. But in games started by Pedro and Glavine, the Mets are 9-4 in 1-run games (5-1 by Glavine)which means they are 7-2 in 1-run games started by the back end.
I'm not sure if this means anything but if the back end is going to lose their fair share of blowouts, what happens when they start losing the 1-run games, too?
I start having to make more runs to Walgreen's to stock up on Pepcid?
That is interesting, that the Mets are 7-2 in one-run games not started by Martinez and Glavine. Without looking it up, I imagine those are generally some high-scoring one-run affairs, whereas Pedro's one-run games have been of the Brandon Webb variety (or of the Billy Wagner blew what should have been a 4-0 win type).
In any event, I remain convinced that the Mets should get better work in the second half of the season out of whomever fills those slots than we did in the first half. I mean, Lima? Gonzalez? Ugh. Somehow, someway, I have to think that the combination of El Duque, Soler, Bannister and Maine will overall be better, and give us a better shot to elevate that 16-14 record in the non-one-run games. So even if we come down to earth somewhat from that .727, we should be OK.
We know that this team is just as good as the Braves or the Phillies just by looking at the rosters, and the Mets have a better run differential than either right now. So you don't have to worry that our first place position is a phantom that's about to evaporate.
We will start losing 1-run games ... but at the current pace we're going to win 99 games and be 15 ahead of the Braves! We have a lot of breathing room. The good luck we've had in close games has just expanded it even further.
I suppose I could bravely try to colonize the Mets message board
I've lost all faith in my ability to count, but I have the Mets at 3-1 in games started by Jeremi Gonzalez. Of course, all due to the offense, which scored 27 runs in those starts, but it cuts into the theory of improved performance (at least from a wins perspective) by the back end.
But the nationals had also allowed more runs than they had scored at that point. That's the key difference - the Mets' run differential suggests something very close or identical to their current record.
Ignoring the Braves for a moment, because the Braves generally have at least six or seven players every year who come out of nowhere to play unbelievably well, I think this is the Mets' year, and next year might be the Phillies' year.
I'd be surprised if both Pedro and Glavine are this good next season, or ever again. Meanwhile the Mets plug all kinds of random guys into the starting rotation and they all pitch adequately, except Jose Lima.
Meanwhile, check out the Phillies' starters. Last year we had Brett Myers pitching very well, and four league-average starters.
This year, two of those average starters are gone (Wolf to injury and then free agency after 2006; Padilla traded to the Rangers for absolutely nothing for unknown reasons), and the other two are pitching much worse (Lieber and Lidle). Why? I don't know. Myers is pitching even better than he did last year, but aside from him we have the two unreliable mediocrities (Lieber and Lidle), a young guy who has been unbelievably disappointing (Floyd), a young guy who is much better in relief than in the rotation (Madson), and a young guy who is probably going to be injured for his entire career à la Kerry Wood (Hamels). Meanwhile we have all kinds of young arms at AAA and AA (I know every team says this, but I think 7 of our top 8 prospects are starting pitchers right now): Mathieson, Gonzalez, Haigwood, Segovia - none of whom have dangerous injury histories.
This is a transitional period for the Phillies rotation, and I guess it's going to last the entire 2006 season. Either Floyd will completely wash out, or he will turn it around, but this season will be sacrificed to finding out. If we were trying to win now, Floyd wouldn't be pitching every 5th day; we'd have Eude Brito or Matt White or somebody in there. At least I think that means we aren't trying to win now.
12 months from now at least three of our starting prospects are scheduled to be MLB-ready, and Eude Brito is ready now (but waiting to see what happens with Floyd/Madson/Hamels). So we'll see who earns a role in 2007's spring training. In the meantime, enjoy the season, Mets fans.
Meanwhile the Mets plug all kinds of random guys into the starting rotation and they all pitch adequately, except Jose Lima.
This was supposed to be another point in favor of this being "the Mets' year", whatever that means.
The problem with that, Crispix, is that you're then counting on those guys to perform as rookies in 2007. That's a tough assignment to give them and hope for immediate success. I would think it's unlikely a FO hoping to contend is going to turn the team's hopes over to a Kiddie Korps rotation like that, and even if the Phillies do it, what is the likelihood it'll work right away? Sounds like a recipe for success . . . in 2008, if things pan out.
1. Pedro
2. Glavine
3. High priced FA starter (Zito?)
4. Heilman/Bannister/Soler/FA
5. Bannister/Pelfrey
Even if Pedro and Glavine shown signs of aging, that is an excellent rotation. If Heilman goes back to the rotation, I'm sure Omar will add another elite reliever to the Wagner-Sanchez combo. Owens, if he isn't called up this year, could be the 4th guy out of the bullpen.
1. Reyes ss
2. LoDuca c
3. Beltran cf
4. Delgado 1b
5. Wright 3b
6. Milledge lf
7. Nady rf
8. ??? 2b
I'm guessing the second-baseman won't be batting 8th. Right now, I just don't know who he will be. Hopefully its Castillo. Also, the team could just keep Floyd, let Milledge play RF, and deal Nady for something useful.
But as I said before, even if they had a normal 1-run games record and were performing according to Pythag, they'd be in first place. No problem.
Yes...last year we had a good rotation...if Jim Thome hadn't been utterly horrible, we would have made the playoffs. Now we have to wait two more years to have a good rotation again, unless we strike gold with free agents or Floyd and Hamels suddenly become major-league starters. Neither seems likely.
It's just maddening right now, because Floyd has been SO bad...and the team is not quite bad enough that the front office is going to dump Lidle and Lieber and look toward next year...but Lidle and Lieber are not a recipe for success.
Gavin Floyd has always been terrible. Not sure what's maddening about it... it's like watching Victor Zambrano pitch. The expectations are so low, one can't help but be impressed when the guy doesn't implode.
#4 overall pick, 2001 draft.
And from various sources:
Sally League's #1 prospect, 2003
#17 prospect in baseball, 2003
#2 Phillies prospect, 2004
#2 Phillies prospect, 2004
#43 prospect in baseball, 2004
Eastern League's #1 pitching prospect, 2004
#1 Phillies prospect, 2005
#33 MLB prospect, 2005 (ahead of Howard and Hamels)
This is a big disappointment.
Have heard not a word. I'll see if I can find out, though.
-- MWE
Here
Mets are actually two or three wins ahead of Pythag. That's a pretty high number for this early in the season.
They;re all of 1 win in front of their 3rd order pythag.
They seem to need a 2b, and he is close to the best in the AL so far this year.
I remember some rumours that the mets would sign him last offseason, he has a small contract.
The Royals have Estaban German wasting on the bench and he's, well, younger.
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