Maine pitched 6 innings for Norfolk in his second rehab start and gave up one run, throwing 81 pitches. If Soler stinks it up in LA next week, I think Maine will take his place. IMO, the sooner that Maine gets a few more chances to start, the better.

Lo Duca has averaged about 140 games a year since 2003 and he's on pace for about 120 games this year. Is that enough rest to keep him productive? I'd like to see Castro play about 1/3 of the time but I don't think that's going to happen.

Does anyone else think that this forum could use more updates? The periodical state of the club broadcasts are good, but it wouldn't be bad to have a place to discuss Mets minutiae

It'll be interesting to see how many runs Trachsel gives up in Arizona and against Boston. Maybe fifteen or more in the two games combined.

Does anyone else think that this forum could use more updates?

How many do you want? I tend to write somethin when there's something I want to say.

And updates, IMO, get outdated pretty fast. I am open to suggestions.

I am open to suggestions.

I guess rather than write an article you could just post a topic, i.e., "Maine sould take the next start iver Soler. Discuss." But this stuff is usually covered in the chatters and the news articles so it may not be particularly useful.

it wouldn't be bad to have a place to discuss Mets minutiae

Go to the Forums. There's an NL Team Lounge there for the Mets.

-- MWE

How concerned should we be over the Mets 14-5 record in 1-run games?

How concerned should we be over the Mets 14-5 record in 1-run games?

Actually, unless I completely miscounted just now (possible, but I did it twice) they've played 22 one-run games, and are 16-6 (.727) (14-2 at home, and 2-4 on the road.) They're only 16-14 in all other games.

Is this a concern? Perhaps, but I think it's a reflection of the back end of the rotation. They're going to lose some blow-outs with those clowns back there, and thus be pretty mediocre overall in the non-one-run situations. But with the strength at the front end, and in the bullpen, I think it's legitimate to think the Mets will continue to excel at winning close games. Probably not .727, but .600+ ball. And if we can get Bannister back, and decent work out of Hernandez (and get Pedro some runs), I'd expect the winning percentage in the other games to rise closer to that level.

You are correct, the Mets are 16-6, according to the stats at MLB.com

The lesson, as always, don't count yourself if somebody else has already done it.

Yes, the Mets bullpen gives them an edge in one-run games. But in games started by Pedro and Glavine, the Mets are 9-4 in 1-run games (5-1 by Glavine)which means they are 7-2 in 1-run games started by the back end.

I'm not sure if this means anything but if the back end is going to lose their fair share of blowouts, what happens when they start losing the 1-run games, too?

what happens when they start losing the 1-run games, too?

I start having to make more runs to Walgreen's to stock up on Pepcid?

That is interesting, that the Mets are 7-2 in one-run games not started by Martinez and Glavine. Without looking it up, I imagine those are generally some high-scoring one-run affairs, whereas Pedro's one-run games have been of the Brandon Webb variety (or of the Billy Wagner blew what should have been a 4-0 win type).

In any event, I remain convinced that the Mets should get better work in the second half of the season out of whomever fills those slots than we did in the first half. I mean, Lima? Gonzalez? Ugh. Somehow, someway, I have to think that the combination of El Duque, Soler, Bannister and Maine will overall be better, and give us a better shot to elevate that 16-14 record in the non-one-run games. So even if we come down to earth somewhat from that .727, we should be OK.

I don't think the 1-run games record is a cause for concern. It is a cause for rejoicing that we have been lucky.

We know that this team is just as good as the Braves or the Phillies just by looking at the rosters, and the Mets have a better run differential than either right now. So you don't have to worry that our first place position is a phantom that's about to evaporate.

We will start losing 1-run games ... but at the current pace we're going to win 99 games and be 15 ahead of the Braves! We have a lot of breathing room. The good luck we've had in close games has just expanded it even further.

And Sorry Chris, I didn't mean that you needed to write more articles yourself. I thought that links or issues that didn't make the front page could come up here, for Met fan discussion.

I suppose I could bravely try to colonize the Mets message board

As I posted in one of the chatters, the team's record is a lot like it's pythagorean record (1st, 2nd or 3rd order), so in that sense you could say they haven't been lucky or unlucky. It could be that the happening of all of those 1-run games in the flukey part.

The Nationals 1-run record last year, when they started out so great and then did terrible, is just too fresh in my mind.

I've lost all faith in my ability to count, but I have the Mets at 3-1 in games started by Jeremi Gonzalez. Of course, all due to the offense, which scored 27 runs in those starts, but it cuts into the theory of improved performance (at least from a wins perspective) by the back end.

The Nationals 1-run record last year, when they started out so great and then did terrible, is just too fresh in my mind.

But the nationals had also allowed more runs than they had scored at that point. That's the key difference - the Mets' run differential suggests something very close or identical to their current record.

As a Phillies fan, I've just about decided to start looking forward to next season. Why? Starting pitching.

Ignoring the Braves for a moment, because the Braves generally have at least six or seven players every year who come out of nowhere to play unbelievably well, I think this is the Mets' year, and next year might be the Phillies' year.

I'd be surprised if both Pedro and Glavine are this good next season, or ever again. Meanwhile the Mets plug all kinds of random guys into the starting rotation and they all pitch adequately, except Jose Lima.

Meanwhile, check out the Phillies' starters. Last year we had Brett Myers pitching very well, and four league-average starters.

This year, two of those average starters are gone (Wolf to injury and then free agency after 2006; Padilla traded to the Rangers for absolutely nothing for unknown reasons), and the other two are pitching much worse (Lieber and Lidle). Why? I don't know. Myers is pitching even better than he did last year, but aside from him we have the two unreliable mediocrities (Lieber and Lidle), a young guy who has been unbelievably disappointing (Floyd), a young guy who is much better in relief than in the rotation (Madson), and a young guy who is probably going to be injured for his entire career à la Kerry Wood (Hamels). Meanwhile we have all kinds of young arms at AAA and AA (I know every team says this, but I think 7 of our top 8 prospects are starting pitchers right now): Mathieson, Gonzalez, Haigwood, Segovia - none of whom have dangerous injury histories.

This is a transitional period for the Phillies rotation, and I guess it's going to last the entire 2006 season. Either Floyd will completely wash out, or he will turn it around, but this season will be sacrificed to finding out. If we were trying to win now, Floyd wouldn't be pitching every 5th day; we'd have Eude Brito or Matt White or somebody in there. At least I think that means we aren't trying to win now.

12 months from now at least three of our starting prospects are scheduled to be MLB-ready, and Eude Brito is ready now (but waiting to see what happens with Floyd/Madson/Hamels). So we'll see who earns a role in 2007's spring training. In the meantime, enjoy the season, Mets fans.

Sorry I wasn't clear in one paragraph:

Meanwhile the Mets plug all kinds of random guys into the starting rotation and they all pitch adequately, except Jose Lima.

This was supposed to be another point in favor of this being "the Mets' year", whatever that means.

12 months from now at least three of our starting prospects are scheduled to be MLB-ready, and Eude Brito is ready now (but waiting to see what happens with Floyd/Madson/Hamels). So we'll see who earns a role in 2007's spring training. In the meantime, enjoy the season, Mets fans.

The problem with that, Crispix, is that you're then counting on those guys to perform as rookies in 2007. That's a tough assignment to give them and hope for immediate success. I would think it's unlikely a FO hoping to contend is going to turn the team's hopes over to a Kiddie Korps rotation like that, and even if the Phillies do it, what is the likelihood it'll work right away? Sounds like a recipe for success . . . in 2008, if things pan out.

With all the frontline pitching available this offseason, I find it likely the Mets sign at least one starting pitcher as well next year.

After this year, the Mets will have once again a ton of money to play with, though so that means they could get better too. Here's how I expect the rotation, and lineup to look like:

1. Pedro
2. Glavine
3. High priced FA starter (Zito?)
4. Heilman/Bannister/Soler/FA
5. Bannister/Pelfrey

Even if Pedro and Glavine shown signs of aging, that is an excellent rotation. If Heilman goes back to the rotation, I'm sure Omar will add another elite reliever to the Wagner-Sanchez combo. Owens, if he isn't called up this year, could be the 4th guy out of the bullpen.

1. Reyes ss
2. LoDuca c
3. Beltran cf
4. Delgado 1b
5. Wright 3b
6. Milledge lf
7. Nady rf
8. ??? 2b

I'm guessing the second-baseman won't be batting 8th. Right now, I just don't know who he will be. Hopefully its Castillo. Also, the team could just keep Floyd, let Milledge play RF, and deal Nady for something useful.

Mets are actually two or three wins ahead of Pythag. That's a pretty high number for this early in the season.

But as I said before, even if they had a normal 1-run games record and were performing according to Pythag, they'd be in first place. No problem.

I would think it's unlikely a FO hoping to contend is going to turn the team's hopes over to a Kiddie Korps rotation like that, and even if the Phillies do it, what is the likelihood it'll work right away? Sounds like a recipe for success . . . in 2008, if things pan out.

Yes...last year we had a good rotation...if Jim Thome hadn't been utterly horrible, we would have made the playoffs. Now we have to wait two more years to have a good rotation again, unless we strike gold with free agents or Floyd and Hamels suddenly become major-league starters. Neither seems likely.

It's just maddening right now, because Floyd has been SO bad...and the team is not quite bad enough that the front office is going to dump Lidle and Lieber and look toward next year...but Lidle and Lieber are not a recipe for success.

BTW, does anyone know when Humber will start making rehab starts? It's supposed to be sometime soon.

It's just maddening right now, because Floyd has been SO bad
Gavin Floyd has always been terrible. Not sure what's maddening about it... it's like watching Victor Zambrano pitch. The expectations are so low, one can't help but be impressed when the guy doesn't implode.

The expectations were not low.

#4 overall pick, 2001 draft.

And from various sources:
Sally League's #1 prospect, 2003
#17 prospect in baseball, 2003
#2 Phillies prospect, 2004
#2 Phillies prospect, 2004
#43 prospect in baseball, 2004
Eastern League's #1 pitching prospect, 2004
#1 Phillies prospect, 2005
#33 MLB prospect, 2005 (ahead of Howard and Hamels)

This is a big disappointment.

Where can one find current Pythag standings?

Gavin Floyd has been perpetually overrated by Baseball America. His minor league performance was good, but rarely worth the hype that he received.

BTW, does anyone know when Humber will start making rehab starts?

Have heard not a word. I'll see if I can find out, though.

-- MWE

Where can one find current Pythag standings?

Here

Mets are actually two or three wins ahead of Pythag. That's a pretty high number for this early in the season.

They;re all of 1 win in front of their 3rd order pythag.

Maybe the wrong place, but do the Mets have any interest in Mark Grudzalanik?

They seem to need a 2b, and he is close to the best in the AL so far this year.

I remember some rumours that the mets would sign him last offseason, he has a small contract.
The Royals have Estaban German wasting on the bench and he's, well, younger.

I don't think the Mets need a 2B. They are getting adequate performance for a song. They need stronger "back of the rotation" pitching, and I think tehy'll trade for that first.

I guess I'v just heard a lot from met fans about how terrible Matsui is, and Valentin, while hitting now (no way he hits .300 for much longer) is illing the team in the field.