Montreal Expos

It?s 2003 and the Expos are still a baseball team. They may be playing a bunch of games in Puerto Rico, but they are still a baseball team. Although I want to analyze them like any other team, the Expos do have one special quality. More than any team now, perhaps more than any team ever, the Expos are playing for one season at a time. This became apparent last year when Omar Minaya dealt away Brandon Phillips and other prospects for Bartolo Colon and Cliff Floyd. This team cannot have a rebuilding process.

Once again, the Expos start a season owned by MLB. If last season?s performance is any indication, Minaya?s mission is clear: play for now. Montreal does not have any top prospects left. Even still, if Montreal can get close, the new ownership group will probably inherit a completely barren farm system.

Can Minaya?s Expos get close? In this division, anything is possible. Let us see what they are starting with:

Name (Bats ? 2002 BA/OBP/SLG in ? Plate Appearances)

Catcher
Michael Barrett (R ? 263/336/418 in 428 PA)
Brian Schneider (L ? 275/342/459 in 232 PA)

Both catchers established a similar level of performance last year. It might seem logical to platoon them; however, there are two factors preventing that arrangement. Firstly, Barrett is set to make $ 2.6 million. Secondly, even with caveats for smaller sample size, Barrett has been atrocious against left-handed pitching.

Michael Barrett - Career Performance    
                   BA       OBP      SLG     PA
vs. LHP            0.259    0.315    0.388    251
vs. RHP            0.283    0.354    0.447    661

Schneider makes about a tenth of Barrett?s salary and appears to be a superior defensive catcher. Barrett is a good candidate to be shipped off in any trade the Expos make this year. Barrett has played all over the diamond in previous seasons. In the minds of many observers there seems to be a connection between Barrett's offensive prowess and his playing catcher exclusively. He could be extremely valuable to the Expos this season as a C/3B/1B. However, due to his salary, he?ll probably be the starting catcher.

First Base/Left Field
Brad Wilkerson (L ? 266/373/469 in 603 PA)
Jeff Liefer (L ? 230/296/373 in 224 PA with Chicago (AL))
Wil Cordero (R ? 267/337/435 in 184 PA with Montreal and Cleveland)

Wil Cordero contract's is funded by the ?Andres Galarraga Expo Retread? bursary. Liefer hasn't done much since AAA, where he did show promise. In 2000 he batted an untranslated 281/356/566 in full-time AAA play. However, he was relatively old for AAA, and is now relatively old to establish himself in the majors. The clock is ticking. Should Liefer live up to the promise of his minor league days ? the now distant 1998 and 2000 days ? he and Cordero could come together for a decent platoon.

I?m inclined to believe that Wilkerson is a better leftfielder than either Cordero or Liefer, but I imagine that the differences aren?t large. He should see time mostly in left, but might get a few starts at centre and first. Wilkerson hasn?t handled lefties well, but I?d rather take my chances with him full time than give those at bats to Jose Macias or Matt Cepicky. Wilkerson is a legitimate hitter, who has shown tremendous on-base skills all the way up the ladder.

There isn?t as much power as you would like to see from first base and left field, but I?m pretty sure that the Expos can get a bunch of doubles, a decent on-base percentage and at least an 800 OPS combined from these three players.

Second Base
Jose Vidro (B ? 315/379/490 in 681 PA)

Vidro as been consistently good since settling into second base as a 24 year old in 1999. He probably won't ever top his fantastic 2000 season, but he's good for 40 doubles, 15 homers and a 370 OBP every year. Expect more of the same in 2003. Like many Expos Vidro has a huge home/road split. Vidro is a solid fielder, who doesn't look to be playing anywhere but second for a while. Though he makes a sizeable chunk of change ($5.5 million this year, $7.0 million next), there is no reason to expect him to be anywhere but Montreal by season?s end.

If the Robinson and Minaya brain trust is able to get near a playoff spot, Vidro will deserve a lot of the credit.

Shortstop
Orlando Cabrera (R- 263/323/380 in 626 PA)

Cabrera came on like gangbusters in the second half of 2001, hitting 309/354/498 after the midseason classic. That performance, combined with his all-world fielding, made him look ready to join Vlad and Vidro as current Expo stars. His 2002 was a disaster, albeit a disaster somewhat caused by an ailing back. Unless he heals up quickly and finds his 2001 self both at the plate and on the field, he will vastly be overpaid at $3.3 million. He is certainly not pushing the Expos towards a playoff spot. Having given up Brandon Phillips hurts, but Minaya was correct in playing it one season at a time last year. Unfortunately for the Expos, this year there are no prospects left to plug holes if they do get close.

Third Base
Fernando Tatis (R ? 228/307/399 in 430 PA)

As 1999 and 2000 fade into the horizon, Fernando Tatis becomes less and less tradable. His salary torpedoed Minaya?s chances of getting fair market for Colon. He?s not old yet, so he might be able to turn it around this year. I wouldn?t bet on it though.

Unfortunately, the Expos don?t have any better options ? a healthy Jose Macias is not a better option than a wonky, overweight Tatis. If he can get his batting average over .250, I like his chances for an 800+ OPS. Don?t forget, he posted a huge 298/404/553 season as a 24 year old in 1999. If the Expos had any kind of financial resources, Tatis' health would probably be overseen by a co-ordinated team of professionals. As of now, it appears that the Expos will have to hold on to his contract and hope that he has healed up over the winter. If there is a disaster, Jose Macias and Jamey Carroll will be there to deliver replacement level performances.

Centre Field
Endy Chavez (L ? 296/323/464 in 138 PA with Montreal, 343/393/467 in 438 PA in AAA)
Peter Bergeron (L ? 187/310/244 in 148 PA with Montreal, 291/366/350 in 379 PA in AAA)
Jose Macias (B ? 249/293/371 in 373 PA with Montreal and Detroit)

Obviously Chavez deserves the job. He?s long had a decent batting eye and solid contact skills ? last year he took it up a notch and added a dozen or so doubles. He?s their best option and should merit a long look in centrefield and towards the top of the order.

Bergeron has now had over 1000 major league at-bats to deliver on his promise. He hasn't really had a good year since 1999, and isn't getting any younger. While he?s not costing the Expos a lot, he doesn?t really deserve to take time away from Chavez.

I have lumped Jose Macias in here with the centre fielders. He?s a decent option at the end of the bench, if they use him to fill in sporadically for Tatis, Cabrera and Chavez. A good barometer of the Expos success will be Macias? playing time. If he?s playing a lot of infield, it means that either Tatis or Cabrera is injured. If he?s playing a lot of outfield, it means that Frank Robinson has misread his available talent. In any case, if he?s playing a lot ? the Expos are in trouble.

Right Field
Vlad (R ? 336/420/593 in 709 PA)

The reason to go to Olympic Stadium. He?s on the Andre Dawson, Gary Carter and Tim Raines inner pantheon of Expos greatness. Expect more of the same.

Vlad?s a decent bet to go 40-40 this year. It?ll probably cost the Expos a few runs on the basepaths, but I think Vlad?s the type of player you can let go on an ego trip.

He?ll be worth a huge contract next off-season, the only question is where he?ll land. He might loose 15 points of BA in a full season outside Olympic Stadium. He can afford to.

Pitching
Name (Throws ? 2002 ERA, DIPS ERA, IP)

Starting Rotation

Javier Vazquez (R ? 3.91 ERA, 3.77 dERA, 230.3 IP)

His 2002 was marginally worse than his 2001. His falling K rate doesn't worry me too much, he's still got great control. He won?t be an dominating ace, but he will be good for an ERA in the high threes or low fours and over 200 innings. If he?s not an ace, he?s at least a very solid anchor.

Orlando Hernandez (R ? 3.64 ERA, 3.91 dERA, 146.0 IP)

I think he?s a good consolation prize for loosing Colon. As good a fit as the Expos, a team with a low budget that is forced to play for now, could have hoped for.

Unlike most salary dumps, the Expos weren?t interested in picking up prospects. Talk of Nick Johnson and Juan Rivera was silly ? El Duque actually ranks as a decent fit. I hope that he will stay healthy, but his back, legs and birth-certificate are wonky. Expect some dominating stretches, which if well timed could help the Expos flirt with contention.

Tony Armas Jr. (R ? 4.44 ERA, 4.61 dERA, 164.3 IP)

Armas? stuff made him a part of the Pedro Martinez trade and it will continue to get him chances for the next decade or so. Armas' didn't take the step forward from his promising 2001. Maybe he?ll put it together this year. Probably not. He?s still young enough (25) to improve.

Tomokazu Ohka (R ? 3.18 ERA, 3.95 ERA, 192.7 IP)

Breakthrough! His ERA was better than his peripherals indicate. Expect a regression to the mean this year. He's got good control, but he doesn't strike out enough batters to be a top notch starter. Last season was very much in line with his minor league performances of 1999 and 2000. Fortunately for Ohka, last year?s performance means that he?ll continue to be trusted every fifth day for a few years.

Zach Day (R ? 3.62 ERA, 4.09 dERA, 37.3 IP with Expos, 3.50 ERA in 90 IP in AAA)
Sun-Woo Kim (R ? 4.74 ERA, 4.24 dERA, 49.3 IP with Expos/Red Sox, 2.23 ERA in 89 IP in AAA)

Day probably has the job. Neither is a top prospect (both are older than Armas), and neither is a bad option for a team with a top four like the Expos. Day's minor league record is better, but both deserve a shot at getting 150 innings this year.

Bullpen

Scott Stewart (L ? 3.09 ERA, 2.83 dERA, 64.0 IP)
T.J. Tucker (R ? 4.11 ERA, 3.98 dERA, 61.3 IP)
Joey Eischen (L ? 1.34 ERA, 2.51 dERA, 53.7 IP)
Dan Smith (R ? 3.47 ERA, 4.89 dERA, 46.7 IP)
Jeff Brower (R ? 4.83 ERA, 4.18 dERA, 41.0 IP)
Britt Reames (R ? 5.03 ERA. 3.92 dERA, 68.0 IP)
Rocky Biddle (R ? 4.06 ERA, 4.97 dERA, 77.7 IP)

Stewart is quite good, tough on lefties and righties. The rest of the bullpen has the potential to be similar to a solid Braves bullpen ? filled with a good mix of old guys who never got a shot and some up-and-coming relievers.

Reames and Smith are likely to swap effectiveness this year. The Expos are counting on Eischen repeating his Hammondesque performance and Tucker?s continuing development. Biddle will be tossed around in a swing role ? at least he has a great last name for Montreal! This bullpen should be able to hold leads. The starting rotation is strong enough that they won?t likely be abused.

The Ballpark

In light of the Puerto Rico arrangement, much has been made of the tremendous success of the Expos at Olympic Stadium. The Expos have benefited both offensively and defensively from Olympic Stadium.

            Scored    Allowed
Home           394        338
Away           341        380

While the park in San Juan may increase offense, the benefit will likely be spread to both teams. The Expo power threats may pile up some big numbers there, but batting averages might fall away from the artificial turf of the big Owe.

Manager
Frank Robinson

For all the hype he gets, last year was Robinson's second most successful as a manager. After some cat and mouse games, Robinson agreed to return. Under Robinson, and out from Alou, the Expos began taking walks again. Their offense took a major leap forward in 2002 - a gain which should be consolidated in 2003.

He inherits an offense that is at least as promising as last year's and a rotation that looks better than it did a year ago. The Expos are also a team that enters the season with few injury question marks.

If Robinson can play around with the lineup and get the offense rolling, the Expos have a chance. If he falls in love with non-hitters like Jose Macias or Matt Cepicky, they don't.

Some interesting things could happen. Michael Barrett could go back to wandering around the diamond now that Schneider is more established. While it potentially endangers Barrett's tradability and offense, such a move might be necessary if the options at the infield corners falter. Even if Barrett resists, it's a risk that is probably worth taking.

Last season Minaya got creative and his moves energized Montreal towards contention. This season, Minaya's hands will be tied and Robinson will need to display original thinking.

Prognostication

The NL East is wide open this year. I think the Expos have the pitching to compete with Atlanta and Philadelphia. However, the Expos have potential holes at first, short, third and centrefield. Unlike last year, they probably won?t be competitors for top line trade deadline deals. They?ll likely have less flexibility salary conditions, and they don?t have the top line prospects that they did last year. Those holes need to be addressed from within, but there isn?t much to fill them with. Bounce-backs from Tatis and Cabrera would go a long way for this team.

It will be interesting to see how the MLB deals with the Expos this season. They have the potential to get near the top of the NL East, but if they don?t, will they dump salary? If a dump does occur, what would be the point? The reality of MLB ownership is beginning to unsettle the players. Hopefully, a successful start will quiet them.

I don?t think they?ll catch fire in 2003. They?ll hover a few games over .500 most of the season.

Lastly, I hope that in 2004 the Montreal Expos will still be a baseball team.

2003 ZiPS Projections - Click for info

PO    Player       G  AB   R   H 2B 3B HR RBI BB  SO SB CS   BA  OBP  SLG
C     Barrett    112 408  41 106 23  1  9  43 34  56  4  2 .260 .319 .387
1B    Liefer     107 339  49  84 18  0 17  49 31  95  1  1 .248 .313 .451
2B    Vidro      148 586  98 189 44  2 20  87 52  64  3  2 .323 .379 .507
3B    Tatis      100 338  43  80 18  1 14  50 38  83  2  2 .237 .316 .420
SS    Cabrera    155 574  62 154 41  3 11  70 45  49 20  7 .268 .323 .408
LF    Wilkerson  144 467  85 126 27  6 19  61 82 138  8  7 .270 .380 .475
CF    Macias     125 388  50 100 22  3  8  43 26  52 12  8 .258 .307 .392
RF    Guerrero   162 613 108 206 38  4 41 115 76  75 35 16 .336 .410 .612
c     Schneider  103 316  29  84 24  2  6  40 26  55  1  1 .266 .324 .411
1b-of Cordero     99 325  41  88 21  2 10  42 25  53  1  1 .271 .325 .440
2b    Carroll    126 452  63 120 21  4  5  41 35  49  6  6 .265 .320 .363
2b    Mateo      111 433  63 112 14  7  5  38 31  82 24 10 .259 .310 .358
3b    Hodges     126 466  64 118 26  1  7  50 44  94  1  2 .253 .319 .358
of    Bergeron   148 526  82 134 15  6  3  31 57 115 16 10 .255 .329 .323
of    Calloway   135 479  73 129 25  4 16  64 40 102 16  9 .269 .328 .438
of    Cepicky    135 479  58 119 24  3 18  75 27 113  4  4 .248 .290 .424
of    Chavez     130 484  76 154 28  7  5  40 32  49 15 13 .318 .362 .436

PO Player      W  L  ERA  G GS  IP   H ER HR BB  SO
SP Vazquez    14  9 3.28 33 33 228 201 83 22 46 212
SP Armas Jr.  10 12 4.25 29 29 163 144 77 17 72 153
SP Ohka       10 10 4.29 30 29 172 177 82 20 44 112
SP Hernandez   7 10 4.83 24 23 149 151 80 22 54 118
SP Day         9 11 4.44 33 23 142 141 70 13 53  93
SP Kim         7  9 4.62 33 19 129 124 66 15 54 103
SP Gonzalez    6  8 4.57 27 22 134 141 68 17 37  79
SP Biddle      6  8 4.86 33 19 126 122 68 14 62  98
RP Brower      5  8 4.94 43 13 124 128 68 15 53  83
RP Drew        8 12 4.79 32 27 169 185 90 19 52  80
RP Reames      6  7 4.40 40 20 129 119 63 14 55 113
RP Smith       7 12 5.32 52 17 142 151 84 22 59  92
RP Tucker      4 10 5.61 37 18 122 128 76 20 59  84
RP Eischen     3  4 4.50 52  2  68  66 34  8 25  54
CL Stewart     4  2 3.34 61  0  62  54 23  4 18  56
ZiPS is not a playing time predictor and should not be added for team totals.