2006 Atlanta Braves
This was written as a three week review of the season so far. By request, it will now function as the Looking Forward To...2006 Atlanta Braves. Please keep that in mind while you're reading.
Through Tuesday night, the Braves have basically been playing .500 ball, bouncing between one game above and two games below that number. There's no need to panic, though. They've had similar records almost every April during their run.
OUTFIELD:
The outfield has been a strength so far, if you pretend Jeff Francoeur isn't out there. He hit three home runs in two games, and otherwise has had almost no success at all offensively. Andruw Jones has shown that last year was no fluke, with eight HR so far as well as a .337 OBP. He still strikes out a lot, but that's OK. And his defense looks better this year as well, although that may be in part due to having two other centerfielders out there with him, leaving him less ground to cover than early last year, when Jordan and Mondesi manned the corners. Ryan Langerhans has exceeded all expectations so far, hitting .304/.391/.536. Combine that with some spectacular defense, and you have a legitamate starting outfielder, not the fourth outfielder that many of us thought he was. Matt Diaz has been adequate as the fourth outfielder, in limited action.
The problem is that, right now, there aren't any alternatives to the four players on the roster. Kelly Johnson has an elbow injury that has kept him from playing yet in 2006, and James Jurries is the next option. He hasn't played in the majors yet, and hasn't dome well so far at AAA Richmond this season, putting up a 235/361/314 line. Yes, he's slugging below his OBP.
INFIELD
The infield's had serious injury problems already. Over the weekend, three of the four infielders were unavailable, leading to a lineup featuring both Tony Pena Jr. and Pete Orr. Wilson Betemit has made the most of his playing time, starting at both 3B and SS the past week, but he can only play one position at a time. He's a real asset to the team. Chipper Jones came off the disabled list Tuesday and hit a HR, and Marcus Giles made it back on Monday night. Edgar Renteria is also close to being ready again. At 1B, Adam LaRoche, finally playing everyday, is not setting the world on fire. He has four home runs, but only a .226 batting average. Brian Jordan has done even worse, and looks awkward at first base, proving it's not as easy as it looks over there. Pete Orr is fast, and willing to play everywhere (although he can really only handle 2B well), but has no power. His value is entirely in his batting average, and the league might have figured that out. It might have been best to trade him last offseason while his value was high.
Tony Pena Jr. has no business being on a major league roster in this day and age. That just shows how weak the upper level minor league middle infielders are. Jonathan "Nepotism" Schuerholz is the next best prospect, behind Martin Prado, perhaps, although Prado was a level below Schuerholz. James Jurries is also the likely replacement for Jordan or LaRoche if they were to go down.
STARTING PITCHING
The starting pitchers were terrible the first two times around. It appears there's a learning curve for new pitching coach Roger McDowell. Since then, the starters have looked much better. Kyle Davies has had two strong outings, John Smoltz and Tim Hudson each had complete game wins, and John Thomson appears to be rounding into shape. Jorge Sosa's 2005 looks more and more like a mirage, however, as he hasn't yet made it more than four innings in a start and currently sports a 10.45 ERA. That's not just bad luck, either. He's given up 19 hits, 7 walks, and 2 HR in just 10.1 innings, and only has four strikeouts. He did hit a home run in his first start. Horacio Ramirez is currently on the DL, with no timetable for his return.
BULLPEN
The bullpen is a work in progress, as is usual for the Braves this time of year. Oscar Villarreal leads the team with four wins, although he hasn't actually looked good doing it. Chuck James is the early star, sporting a WHIP of 0.84, due partly to a batting average against of just .186. James has done this at every level so far, just getting guys out, so he may actually be able to maintain this. If Sosa continues to struggle and Ramirez stays on the DL, James may move to the rotation. Chris Reitsma has a tenuous grip on the closer position, having saved four games, but having an ERA of 4.91. Ken Ray has also been a find. A career minor leaguer who last pitched in the majors in 1999 for Kansas City, his first appearance in 2006 was against Barry Bonds, who swung and missed three pitches. It hasn't all been that spectacular for Ray, but he looks solid so far. Macay McBride may be back from the DL soon as well.
Again, there's not too much at AAA to help out with the pitching. Blaine Boyer is likely out for the year, after two early appearances. Joey Devine was brought up, did as poorly as could be imagined, and was sent back to the minors with a 63.00 ERA. That is NOT a typo. Anthony Lerew, thought by many to be the best pitching prospect in the system, is 0-2 with an 11.74 ERA at Richmond. The top starter there is Travis Smith, the very definition of AAA journeyman.
MANAGEMENT
Bobby Cox and John Schuerholz proved last year that they're willing to make moves and take chances. They were willing to drop underperforming veterans and replace them with raw rookies. Schuerholz made some solid moves over the winter. Renteria was expensive, costing top prospect Andy Marte, but part of the deal is that Boston is picking up a large portion of his contract. And Bobby Cox has a real talent for putting his players in postion to succeed.
OUTLOOK
If the starting pitching really is rounding into shape, and the infielders can stay healthy for a while, the Braves are still in decent shape. Despite the problems, they're still only three games back of the Mets, in second place. Taking two of three from the Mets was key, in that it kept the margin small. That has been the Braves approach every year; stay close and then get hot after all the kinks are worked out.
It's a long season. And while the Braves AAA team is weak, the lower minors are stocked. The Braves have shown willingness over the years to promote players agressively. Possible candidates for this treatment this year would have to include RP Will Startup, C/1B Jarrod Saltalamacchia, INF Martin Prado, OF Gregor Blanco, and SS Yunel Escobar (who may be moved to second base). A trade is also a possibility. Although the days of the Braves picking up big contracts is probably past, they have a lot of prospects, including two catchers in Saltalamacchia (nearly untouchable) and Brayan Pena.
At some point, the Braves string of division titles will come to an end. This could be the year, but that's been my feeling the past three years or so. As long as Bobby Cox is managing the team, I wouldn't bet against them winning. In any case, I think they'll make the playoffs, because the wild card is likely to come from the NL East this year. Let's call it first place (I'm a fanboy), with a record of 97-63, two games ahead of the Mets.
2006 ZiPS Projections - Atlanta Braves
Name P G AB R H 2B 3B HR RBI BB K SB CS AVG OBP SLG
Giles 2b 134 517 89 161 42 3 13 66 58 86 15 4 .311 .387 .480
Jones# 3b 126 433 68 118 26 1 23 79 78 70 1 0 .273 .383 .497
Jones cf 158 592 93 163 30 3 42 118 69 119 4 4 .275 .356 .549
Diaz lf 121 426 65 125 35 3 14 67 22 77 6 3 .293 .345 .488
Johnson* lf 133 462 76 121 24 4 17 60 61 97 4 1 .262 .347 .442
Langerhans* rf 136 425 70 113 27 3 13 53 54 102 5 5 .266 .352 .435
LaRoche* 1b 127 427 55 114 28 0 17 65 43 87 1 2 .267 .337 .452
Renteria ss 151 602 89 179 35 2 9 70 56 76 16 8 .297 .356 .407
Francoeur rf 132 496 73 136 32 2 21 78 23 106 10 5 .274 .315 .474
Betemit# ss 124 392 49 106 17 4 9 45 36 97 4 3 .270 .336 .403
Saltalamacchia# c 135 442 63 115 21 2 11 53 41 106 2 1 .260 .324 .391
Thorman* 1b 145 537 62 140 24 3 18 71 36 98 3 3 .261 .313 .417
McCann* c 105 341 44 86 18 1 11 44 26 49 2 2 .252 .310 .408
Pena# c 82 281 28 78 14 2 1 24 20 23 3 2 .278 .323 .352
Ryan* rf 115 345 42 83 17 2 10 44 30 80 4 3 .241 .301 .388
Crespo# cf 119 402 57 99 22 3 6 40 41 77 15 8 .246 .318 .361
Orr* 2b 111 344 51 99 10 4 2 26 19 48 16 11 .288 .326 .358
Prado 2b 114 421 58 114 15 4 4 35 27 57 10 6 .271 .316 .354
Pratt c 51 143 13 33 4 0 4 17 16 48 0 0 .231 .315 .343
Kelton lf 130 455 55 109 25 1 14 56 30 94 7 4 .240 .289 .391
Esquivel rf 125 433 54 101 23 1 13 52 29 146 8 4 .233 .294 .381
Mendez dh 63 237 21 60 13 1 3 25 9 27 1 1 .253 .284 .354
Doetsch cf 133 486 66 116 16 3 5 38 35 127 14 9 .239 .296 .315
Perez c 83 233 15 55 12 0 5 26 10 35 0 1 .236 .268 .352
Jordan lf 64 205 21 47 8 1 3 20 14 35 1 1 .229 .286 .322
Hernandez# ss 123 404 46 93 12 3 3 30 26 60 5 4 .230 .283 .297
Joseph cf 121 423 47 97 14 2 2 33 28 111 14 8 .229 .286 .286
Pena ss 136 482 52 113 18 2 6 37 18 107 15 16 .234 .266 .317
Name W L ERA G GS INN H ER HR BB K
Smoltz 12 8 3.55 31 31 213.0 202 84 16 54 150
Hudson 12 9 3.68 29 29 198.0 192 81 13 57 128
Reitsma 5 5 3.86 72 1 77.0 79 33 7 17 48
Boyer 7 7 4.04 40 18 118.0 114 53 8 45 75
Thomson 10 9 4.09 28 28 176.0 181 80 17 46 111
Almanzar 5 3 4.12 56 0 59.0 58 27 7 23 41
Cormier 8 7 4.37 44 16 138.0 137 67 13 50 91
Hernandez 3 4 4.42 43 0 59.0 52 29 5 32 59
Hampton* 8 10 4.50 25 25 152.0 158 76 12 59 78
Smith 7 8 4.50 31 19 118.0 122 59 16 35 92
James* 8 10 4.68 28 27 148.0 147 77 21 56 117
Foster* 2 4 4.69 56 0 48.0 46 25 6 22 41
Davies 7 10 4.78 29 26 147.0 139 78 16 78 125
Baker 3 4 4.90 60 0 68.0 65 37 9 34 64
Lerew 6 9 4.93 29 27 148.0 153 81 21 59 105
Bennett 2 3 4.94 54 0 62.0 64 34 10 24 48
Villarreal 2 2 5.00 21 7 27.0 29 15 5 8 19
Sosa 6 8 5.04 39 15 116.0 117 65 14 58 80
Obermueller 6 9 5.06 31 23 160.0 174 90 18 66 85
Ramirez* 7 11 5.10 29 28 173.0 189 98 25 63 79
Remlinger* 2 3 5.14 54 0 49.0 50 28 7 26 43
McBride* 4 6 5.26 43 7 89.0 86 52 12 52 77
Stevens* 6 11 5.27 25 25 164.0 182 96 21 69 88
Stockman 3 7 5.66 39 16 105.0 104 66 12 71 84
Devine 1 1 6.21 25 0 29.0 26 20 5 23 31
Disclaimer: ZiPS projections are computer-based projections of performance.
Performances have not been allocated to predicted playing time in the majors -
many of the players listed above are unlikely to play in the majors at all in 2006.
ZiPS is projecting equivalent production - a .240 ZiPS projection may end up
being .280 in AAA or .300 in AA, for example. Whether or not a player will play
is one of many non-statistical factors one has to take into account when predicting
the future.
Reader Comments and Retorts
Go to end of page
Statements posted here are those of our readers and do not represent the BaseballThinkFactory. Names are provided by the poster and are not verified. We ask that posters follow our submission policy. Please report any inappropriate comments.
Still, I'm optimistic about the end result, and for one reason.
If the Mets want to win this thing, they have to run away and hide. Because if the teams are tied in September, and it comes down to a three game series in Turner Field, with a healthy Chipper Jones...well, we all know how that play ends, don't we?
And the early season results notwithstanding, I'm simply not convinced that the Mets are six+ games better than the Braves.
I am really curious to see what the Braves do with McCann and Salty when the time comes. McCann is looking like an all-star this year so far, ripping lines drives every which way. LaRoche has look awful in my opinion. The .500+ SLG is nice, but he has been the absolute definition of an "all or nothing" approach to the plate it seems.
I think Schuerholz should be given mega-super-ultra props for the Johnny Estrada trade. Granted, Cormier and Villarreal won't put up these numbers all years with the crappy BB and K rates, but without them performing well in oh, the FOURTH INNING in most games, the Braves would be looking pretty rough right now... and they looked rough in the Brewers series anyways.
Personally, I would give Sosa 2 more starts, and if he sucks yet again, throw James in there and move Sosa to the bullpen. I really think he could become an excellent closer because of his raw power.
Turner South has recently been bought out by Fox Sports. In a few days/weeks, evidently TS will cease to exist and be re-named something else.
And it was just announced today that Skip, Pete, Joe, Don and Chip won't be working those new broadcasts. The Rathburn/Torborg duo will work all those games.
That means Skip and The Gang will be restricted to TBS and Braves Radio.
Now, there are about seven people in the world who get Turner South, so that's not a huge deal. But it's the beginning of the end for Braves' broadcasting as we know it.
TBS, of course, used to show 140 games a year. Then FCC regulations knocked them down to 90 or so. And they've now voluntarily cut down to roughly 70. And starting in 2008, that figure will be reduced to 40.
Sigh.
Oh and can we get a Jurries projection up there?
Personally, I would give Sosa 2 more starts, and if he sucks yet again, throw James in there and move Sosa to the bullpen. I really think he could become an excellent closer because of his raw power.
I'd wouldn't even give him his next start. I'd be starting james in his place, assuming james can work more than 4 innings with a craptastic era. And I don't know if sosa would be good in the bullpen. He wasn't that great for TB when he was in their pen, but maybe a year of starting has taught him something.
-- MWE
And at bravesjournal, people still want him brought up to replace laroche.
If Sutton's contract is coming up again before 2008, I wouldn't be too comfortable if I were Rick Monday. Of course, if I were Rick Monday, I'd have bigger problems.
Who does rick monday do?
And of course it doesn't make any sense. If there's any justice, they'll fire chip on the spot.
-- MWE
Jurries - 260/330/469
Burrus - 221/275/345
Ray - 1-5, 6.51
The lateness of the Braves preview is not Oi's fault at all. I completely fell down on that. Oi is essentially covering my slackness here, and should be thanked for doing as much.
s/
Like the intro says, this was originally written as a look back (as an unsolicited tryout for the non-existent-as-of-yet Braves blog). Dan asked if I could punch it up for use as a Braves preview instead, since Sam H hadn't gotten his done. I was happy to oblige. I presume Sam had real life intrude on the fun stuff, which I can certainly sympathize with.
Johnny Jr Nepotism Schuerholz is sporting a .149/.213/.224 line. if he were 17 in AAA, that would be forgiveable. but at 25+? better ask about that special assisant to the assistant GM position...
SKip, Don, et al. are not to be missed. If you've listened to them this year--and perhaps this is because they know the writing is on the wall--they've really been borderline revolting. Not only ON RADIO do they often miss pitches, but they've introduced (this is primarily Don and Skip (?) some good ol' boy prejudice. So far they've made comments derogatory to: non-Christians, women, Mexicans, immigrants in general, and "statheads" (meaning anyone who looks at a stat). They're also mired in the Dark Ages, mentioning how Marcus Giles (he of the .363 OBP, and it was over .400 when they lambasted him) "might not be suited for lead-off." *sigh*
RE: Chuck James. all the guy does is get people out. He's like a young Glavine; terrific change-up (Delmon Young once said "I don't want to see that guy anymore;" then again, he likely won't see ANYONE on the mound for 2-3 months...), good K rate that will decrease in MLB; lefty. I'm not saying he'll *be* Tom Glavine, but he will certainly be better than Ramirez, Sosa, etc.
The Braves have a wicked early schedule. 15 of 21 initial games on the road, including West Coast swing while it's still cold and rainy. only 3 home weekends in the first 9 weeks (if memory serves). Boston early in interleague play. I thought before giving a better look at things that the team would win 90-92 and win the division in the last week, with teh Mets falling out of it with a crumbling rotation starting in August. Now, I'm not so confident, but as Sam H. noted, the Braves do thsi EVERY YEAR. In fact, each year since my wife and I met (5 seasons), they've put in a .650+ June and .600+ July, or some version thereof.
But 97-65 might be a touch difficult, even as a homer.
oh, and regarding Saltalamacchia: I know he's still catching 100% of the games he plays. And McCann will, I predict, outhit the ZiPS for OPS. Kid's got great XBH in all minor levels, esp for his age. So the Braves will have, eventually, a *good* problem on their hands. I would guess, given his size (6'3") and the need to have his bat in there every day, combined with McCann's supposed superiority on defense (not saying much on that), Salty will be the everyday 1B in 2007.
Sam, if you're out there, hope all is well and see you at the Ted.
JL, nice work and keep it coming.
Greg Ward (while we're on "real names" here, that's mine)
Our brutal schedule continues till end of May, so don't expect any ease ups yet.
Jonny Jr actually has picked up the slack this week, he was at 0.081 last week. Moylan got bombed yday too.
Skip has been ill, and he has been extra grumpy, but he is still my favourite game caller. Chip, NOT!
Chuck James isn't striking anyone out at the major leagues yet. My theory is that his strikeout pitch is his changeup, which actually stays out of the zone. people at the major league aren't swinging at it.
Atlanta can't expect any legitimate help from outside this season. We are going to live and die with this team. Lets see if Bobby can work another miracle.
nice review J :) I see you are stepping up your campaign for the Braves blog!
Damnit. Just...damnit.
If that's how it read, it's not how I meant it. I meant that he was the other middle infielder at AAA, so it was either him or Pena to be brought up. I agree that Prado is the better prospect (although I'm not sure if he's better than "utilityman" - he isn't young for his level or anything).
Thanks for the feedback, everyone. I do intend to write more.
Some random thoughts that haven't made it to an article and probably won't any time soon: Jeff Francoeur is not ready. For the Horacio Ramirez preview I was planning on linking out to the BravesJournal thread where he hurt himself. Nothing I could say would be nearly as entertaining or revealing as reading the reactions to his injury there. The Braves can't afford to run Francoeur and Laroche out at offensive positions all year. One or the other, maybe, but not both. Jorge Sosa is going to get hammered all year.
That's about it, I guess.
s/
Mets fans everywhere are very grateful to you for passing this suggestion along. It seems to have worked like a charm.
You must be Registered and Logged In to post comments.
<< Back to main