2006 Baltimore Orioles

The Orioles went into 2005 with the hope of achieving a .500 record. Rather than getting there, they slipped 4 games in the standings finishing 74-88, but what was worse is that their Pythagorean Winning Percentage dropped by 8 games. So, after a big step back that looked little, what can we expect from the Orioles this year? The Orioles finished both 10th in runs per game and 10th in runs against per game in 2005. obviously in order to improve drastically, the team will have to improve both in offense and pitching/defense. Not an easy feat when a large percentage of the team’s games are against perennial powerhouses from New York and Boston, plus the much improved Toronto Blue Jays

In the first season sharing a section of a large regional market with the Washington Nationals, the Orioles finished 5th out of 14 AL teams in attendance, the same as 2003 and 2004. The slight drop in attendance, approximately 100,000 tickets, was not significant since the prior year increased by 300,000. The Nationals, not incidentally, had a similar attendance to that of the Orioles, but finished only 8th out of 16 NL teams. A 100,000 loss for the Orioles and a 2.7M increase from nothing for the Nationals means that the shared television and media market has little or no overlap when it comes to attendance. This could have to do with the time the Orioles schedule games – 7pm. It’s nearly impossible for someone to travel from downtown DC at quitting time and reach one’s seats at Camden Yards by game time. The route is far too congested with regular commuter traffic and parking around the ballpark is limited at best. Even under ideal mid-day conditions the trip mapquest times the trip at just under one hour of driving. For all of the hoopla about lost revenues, a decline of only 100,000 fans versus an increase of 2M fans versus 2004 in Montreal worked out well for Major League Baseball as a whole.

The 2004-2005 offseason was best characterized as flirting without any consummation. After trying to get a number of big-time sluggers, the O’s settled for Sammy Sosa and saw the last waning moments of his career. Luckily it didn’t cost them anything other than a roster spot as the Cubs picked up the vast majority of his salary. This year, the Cubs were again one of the Orioles’ partners, with the Oriles again taking another struggling Cubs outfielder out of his predicament on the North Side of Chicago. Corey Patterson, the one time top prospect was acquired for two minor leaguers of little note.

The Orioles also added Kris Benson from the Mets after Miguel Tejada spent most of the off-season complaining that the O’s were not trying to put together a competitive team, especially a first class pitching staff. The other “major” acquisitions were Ramon Hernandez and Kevin Millar, veterans to be sure, but nothing that gets the fanbase excited.

Yet, despite their lack of major improvements through the free agent and trade markets, the Orioles are considered to have made one of the biggest acquisitions of the offseason. After a career of accomplishment with the Atlanta Braves, Leo Mazzone joined his long-time friend and new Orioles manager Sam Perlozzo as the Orioles’ pitching coach. Everyone knows that Mazzone guided the development of great pitchers Tom Glavine and John Smoltz and had initial success with Steve Avery in the early 90s. Then, he assisted the career of Greg Maddux during much of his greatness.

But, it’s not the great pitchers that are important to Mazzone’s success. Mazzone has helped many pitchers re-establish themselves as solid to good pitchers and has made something out of nothing many times in his career. Mike Bielecki is the first good example. In his first year with the Braves in 1992 he had a 147 ERA+, far and away the best of his career. Then he left for Cleveland and his ERA+ went to 74. He returned to Atlanta and was at 107, left for California and posted a 79 in one season, before returning for the end of his career in Atlanta for a 167 and 103. Granted he was a spot starter at the time and middle innings eater, rather than a rotation guy, but Mazzone’s successes with Bielecki can’t be understated.

Steve Bedrosian was on his last legs in 1993 when he came to Atlanta after posting a 87 and 96 ERA+ following years of solid relief. He missed the 1992 season entirely. Then he posted a 248 ERA+ and a 128 before his last and final season of futility. Where did his 248 ERA+ come from? Only Leo knows.

Mike Remlinger was a 25th man on many teams for many years. He was only better than average once in his career in limited major league play over six seasons. Then with the Braves he rattled off ERA+ numbers of 183, 134, 160, and 207. Something obviously had changed. His success wasn’t as great when he left the Braves, declining to 116 and 132 before a putrid 2005 season , but wow, what a difference Mazzone made.

Chris Hammond has been a consistently good middle reliever with ERA+ numbers in the 140s and better during seasons of his career. But, in his one year with the Braves, Hammond posted an astonishing 434 ERA+ after four years of not pitching in the majors and at the age of 36. What about starters you ask. How about John Burkett. Burkett was a very solid pitcher for many years. He ate innings. He pitched a little better than average, and sometimes much better. But in 1998 and 1999 he looked almost done in Texas. He had gone from a guy throwing up numbers consistently between 100 and 110 and soon was throwing in the mid 80s in ERA+. He started and threw long relief for the Braves in 2000 at the age of 35 to the tune of 95 ERA+. That was an improvement, but nothing special. Then, all of a sudden at 36 he had his best year. An ERA+ of 145 in 219 IP. A career high of 187 Ks against only 70 BBs. The K’s beat his previous high by over 30.

Mike Hampton was a solid to very good pitcher for the Astros and one year for the Mets. Then he went to Colorado and everything went wrong for two years. His ERA+ was 96 and then 80. Everyone thought he was done. Until he went to Atlanta. Since joining Mazzone his ERA+ has rebounded to 108, 101, and 126. Mazzone found what worked for Hampton and gave it back to him. Jaret Wright’s one healthy year after his solid 1998 performance as a 22 year old came with the Braves and Mazzone in 2004 when he posted a 131 ERA+.

Not everything Mazzone touches turns to gold. Sometimes it turns to silver and then tarnishes immediately upon leaving his presence. He’s not a miracle worker. But, he seems to have a much better understanding of what it takes to make a pitcher pitch to his strength in order to heighten success more than any other pitching coach in recent history. Some criticize him for not developing a lot of pitchers. Many top prospect pitchers have burned out under his system. Avery is the most obvious example. But, others like Millwood have turned out okay elsewhere. Bruce Chen finally came into his own last season in Baltimore. Jason Marquis isn’t the stud everyone expected, but he’s a very solid young pitcher.

Overall, Mazzone has a very impressive track record. He gets the job done. O’s fans hope he can turn a staff of very average pitchers into one that is far better than league average.

Additions:
C Ramon Hernandez
1B/DH Kevin Millar
CF Corey Patterson
LF/1B Jeff Conine
P Kris Benson
P LaTroy Hawkins

Additions by Subtraction:
1B Rafael Palmeiro
RF Sammy Sosa
P Sidney Ponson

Subtractions:
LF Larry Bigbie
P Jorge Julio
P Steve Kline

STARTING LINEUP:

The Orioles batting lineup isn’t exactly improved over last season. It’s just a new version of the old. After the 2003 season, the Orioles jettisoned defunct veterans Marty Cordova and David Segui. This offseason the Orioles got rid of the less enhanced pair of Rafael Palmeiro and Sammy Sosa. But, rather than replacing them with young, fresh talent, they opted for Kevin Millar, Jeff Conine, and Corey Patterson.

CATCHER - Ramon Herandez 30/Javier Lopez age 35

Javy Lopez did exactly what the Orioles were hoping for two years in a row. He played a lot of games behind the plate and he has produced with the lumber. He has put up OPS+ numbers right in the expected range of 120 and 110. So, what did the Orioles do? They brought in a new 30 year old catcher who puts up 110 OPS+ numbers and told Javy that rather than being a productive full-time catcher, they would prefer he play sparingly behind the plate and become a less-than useful firstbaseman. Curious.

Hernandez is about to enter his decline years, especially as a catcher with a lot of wear and tear; he’s 30 and has been a starter behind the plate for six+ years already. I’d expect another year of 110 OPS+ before he slips to 100, and 85 in his final year with the O’s. Lopez will be a sulking backup and most-time firstbaseman/designated hitter.

FIRST BASE - Javy Lopez 36/Kevin Millar 34

Javy Lopez will be the primary firstbaseman, at least until he proves he can’t field the position. Then, Kevin Millar, another middling-to-poor fielding firstbaseman will take over full-time defensive duties. If that doesn’t work, perhaps Jeff Conine or Jay Gibbons will man first. What is clear is that the Orioles have a lot of slow footed players who cannot be trusted defensively at a lot of positions. None, however are good enough to hit from the firstbase or designated hitter position. Nor, leftfield, nor rightfield for that matter. It’s a real problem.

Let’s take them in order. Lopez will put up 100-120 OPS+. Millar hasn’t exceeded 117 since he came to the AL three years ago. Conine will be 40 years old and has found a plateau between 100 and 110. Gibbons has the potential to put up 120+ OPS, but not much more. No matter what, the O’s firstbaseman will be both bad defensively and around average productivity from a spot in the lineup that should be very productive.

SECOND BASE - Brian Roberts 28

Roberts had a breakout year last year. His HR went through the roof, mainly due to an outstanding April. He kept his doubles rate high and improved his batting average to levels never seen before. His walk rate went up. His stolen base rate was the same as it was the previous year. Roberts was the team’s and perhaps the league’s most improved player during his age 27 campaign. Right up until he dislocated his elbow in a collision at firstbase, that is. It was one of those Joe Theisman type injuries. You didn’t want to watch, but they just kept showing it and every time it looked worse. It’s unclear whether Roberts will be able to be fully ready to return by Opening Day. Or, whether he will keep up the incredible gains he made last season. When healthy he will bat leadoff.

If Roberts is not available, journeyman backup Chris Gomez will fill in. Roberts has been a solid defender, yet nothing to write home about. His injury shouldn’t affect his defense too much, if at all since it was his non-throwing elbow that was dislocated..

THIRD BASE - Melvin Mora 34

Last year I wrote, “Nobody knows exactly what set Melvin Mora off two years ago, but everyone hopes that it continues. Most people aren’t believers, but it’s hard to refute the evidence; Mora’s hit over .315 two straight years, his OBP has been around .418, and his SLG has been over .500. Both years his OPS+ has been 148. To have gone from a slightly below-average hitter to one of the league’s best makes little sense, but since his streak has now lasted 250 games, it’s hard to argue that it won’t continue.”

Well, last year it didn’t continue. Mora declined back to a 122 OPS+, obviously a respectable level, but nowhere near the All-Star level he had played at for two years. While his raw home run numbers didn’t decline, his rate did, as did his doubles rate. Mora just wasn’t hitting the ball as hard as in the previous two seasons. I wouldn’t be upset if he could maintain last year’s level. Given his age, he probably will fall off the map in a couple of years. O’s fans just hope the guy can give them one more year of usefulness before the inevitable collapse begins.

On defense, Mora adjusted slowly to third base but once he settled in, he proved to have good range and at least decent reliability. Nobody is going to confuse him with Scott Rolen or Eric Chavez around the hot corner, but his defense won’t be a liability.

SHORTSTOP - Miguel Tejada 30

Tejada plays everyday. That’s nothing new for shortstops in Baltimore, but it is something the O’s haven’t seen since Cal Ripken moved to third for good in 1997. In his two years with the O’s Tejada hasn’t missed a game. His streak goes back further than that, however. He has played 162 games going back to 2001. Plus, his two previous seasons were nearly complete seasons at 160 and 159 respectively. He’s durable, great, and normally a solid citizen. This offseason Tejada complained, but I think it was blown out of proportion. He didn’t ask to be traded. He complained about the team’s commitment to winning, based upon very little effort put in by the front office to improve the pitching staff. That was interpreted wrongly and the team tried to find takers for him. No worries. Tejada will go out and play hard, hit hard, and make the fans in Baltimore proud again in 2006. Despite traditional statistics that looked like a large decline: .306/24/98/89R compared to .311/34/150/107, and even a decline in both OBP and SLG, Tejada’s numbers weren’t down. The team and league were both down. Tejada’s OPS+ improved from 126 to 133. He placed 6th in the league in RC for a second straight year, four places higher than his MVP season in 2002. Don’t worry about Miguel Tejada. He’s gonna hit, with or without his Vitamin B injections.

Tejada is a solid shortstop defensively. No worries there. Although as he begins to age, it will be important to watch his foot speed and quickness to see if his range declines.

LEFT FIELD - Jeff Conine 40/Corey Patterson 26

Jeff Conine returns to Baltimore for his swan song. His defense will be bad in leftfield, and his offense won’t bet that great either. I’ve always seen Conine as a bit of a robot. He doesn’t look very fluid on the field or in the batter’s box, but he’s put together a very solid journeyman career. He can still hit a little better than league average. I just don’t think that’s enough for a leftfielder/DH/firstbaseman in today’s AL East.

Patterson is going to play some left and some centerfield. He’ll bat second sometimes and near the bottom of the order other times. He’s the tools prospect who never developed plate discipline, the guy sabermetricians talk about all the time without naming. Can a guy who K’s more than 140 times a year and walks less than 40 ever produce at the level necessary to be a full-time player? I doubt it. He still has speed and some pop in his bat, so Patterson could be a useful 4th outfielder. Unfortunately, the Orioles don’t have three good outfielders to play in front of him.

CENTER FIELD - Corey Patterson 26/Luis Matos 27

Patterson will likely start over Matos because Matos has been playing in the WBC and Patterson is in camp with the team. Perlazzo has talked about putting Patterson in the #2 slot in the lineup, which would be a major mistake. Patterson makes far too many outs. He was once a top prospect and has the potential to become a productive player. But, if he plays leftfield a lot, he will hurt the team. Then again, maybe he could match Conine’s production. When healthy Luis Matos is a solid centerfielder. He doesn’t look like a gazelle out there, but he covers a lot of ground and pulls the occasional HR ball back from over the fence. As a hitter Matos doesn’t impress, but he doesn’t disappoint either. He doesn’t have much power, but he does have good speed on the bases and he hits for a solid average with a small smattering of walks and not too many K’s thrown in there.

RIGHT FIELD - Jay Gibbons 29

For a hitter with solid power, Jay Gibbons is a contact hitter. He doesn’t K a lot and he also doesn’t walk. He puts the ball in play. Since he’s pretty muscular, a decent amount carry out of the yard. Gibbons should put up numbers in line with his career numbers and finish with about 25 HR with an OBP around .315 and an SLG around .480.

DESIGNATED HITTER - Kevin Millar 34

Millar never did quite what he was expected to do when he came to the Red Sox. His counting stats were great his first year, but in actuality he was merely an adequate short-term solution for Boston. Now, three years later, he’s taking his first cuts in an Orioles uniform. He should be a league average hitter. Not exactly what you look for at DH or firstbase. If he plays an inning in the outfield it will be one inning too many.

BENCH
C Geronimo Gil 30
OF Nick Markakis 22
3B/OF David Newhan 33
MI Chris Gomez 34

Markasis is the only player worth noting here. He is the Orioles top prospect and should take over leftfield some time this season. While his HR power has not yet developed, he did have 41 doubles in A and AA last year along with 15 HR. The power should come. Even if not, his plate discipline looks relatively solid. Between the two levels he had 61 BB and 95 Ks. Markakis is rumored to have a chance to play centerfield. I haven’t had a chance to see him play defense. Most depth charts put him in leftfield longterm.

PITCHING STAFF
ROTATION

RHP Rodrigo Lopez 30
RHP Kris Benson 31
LHP Erik Bedard 27
RHP Daniel Cabrera 25
LHP Bruce Chen 29

Rodrigo Lopez is like Bret Saberhagen, only not nearly as good. He seems to have an odd-even year bad-good thing going on. In even years his ERA+ is in the 120-135 range. In odd years its 75-85. If Dr. Jekyll shows up, then the O’s will be satisfied with Lopez. If it’s Mr. Hyde, then I believe Lopez career with the O’s will likely be over after the season if not sooner.

Kris Benson has always been a scout favorite. He has flashes of brilliance mixed with long periods of being an innings eater. Basically, Benson is a nice looking guy, with an outspoken, annoying, attractive, but mainly overrated wife, who pitches close to 200 IP with league average results every year. He’s exactly the guy that Mazzone is supposed to break through with. Maybe it will happen for Benson. Maybe he will fall away into obscurity. Just when Erik Bedard looks like he’s going to break through, he gets injured. Two years in a row Bedard pitched well enough. His ERA+ was 104, he threw around 140 innings with over 120 Ks. But, he can’t stay healthy. If Bedard can go an entire season, he could put up 175 or more Ks, a good ERA, and a bit of excitement on the mound.

Daniel Cabrera is tall and lanky. He’s got a live arm. He brings the gas. But, he’s wild, both in and out of the strikezone. The question is will he come into his own in his third full season? Will Mazzone be able to harness his size and arm into a pitcher? Or will Cabrera continue to tease and miss as a big K, big arm that never reaches the top of the rotation.

Last year I wrote, “given a chance there is nothing in Chen’s past that indicates that he won’t perform at least at the league average as a starter. Given the lack of quality in the O’s rotation, I can only expect that Chen will get that chance.” Chen took that chance and ran with it. He finished second to Lopez in innings with almost 200 and had the best ERA among the starters. Chen has proven to be a great free pickup by the Orioles back in 2004. He finally put it all together as a starter for a full season. If he puts together another full successful season Chen will soon be paid a lot of money.

BULLPEN

The Bullpen has been completely rebuilt from last season. Out are BJ Ryan, Jorge Julio, Steve Kline, and Steve Reed. In are:

Chris Ray 24
LaTroy Hawkins 33
Todd Williams 35

Ray will be the closer to start the season. If things don’t work out, Hawkins will take over. When the turnover in a bullpen is so drastic, it is hard to expect success, but Ray had a good minor league record and was very good in limited use at the Major League level last year. Williams actually led the bullpen in both appearances and innings last year. Hawkins has been down, up, down, and up in his career. It’s hard to know exactly what to expect.

FUTURE

Nick Markakis was the Orioles top pick in 2003 and he will arrive soon. The previous year, the O’s picked Pitcher Adam Loewen, but he didn’t sign until late and lost some development. Loewen is still on his way up. In Frederick, the A+ level, Loewen had 146 Ks against 86 BB in 142 IP. Not dominant by any means, but solid. Outfielders Val Majewski and Nolan Reimold could arrive in the next two years, but at this point neither look like stars. Hayden Penn is another strong armed pitcher with a chance to make an impact with the big league club either this year or next. Brandon Snyder has a good chance to be a big league catcher in the long-term. Generally, the O’s minor league depth is pretty good in the outfield, okay in the bullpen, and poor elsewhere.

BALLPARK:

When Oriole Park at Camden Yards opened it was the beginning of the retropark craze. It also was a hitter’s haven. Some called it a bandbox. Some still do. Those who still do don’t have any clue about how Camden Yards plays. From 1992 through 1995 Camden Yards played as a hitter’s park, favoring batters to the tune of a 102-105 park effect each season. In 1996, things changed and since then, Camden Yards has bounced around in the 90s, but has consistently favored pitchers. The conventional wisdom has not followed suit. There was some tinkering with the fences a few years ago, home plate being moved, but things are back to the original configuration. In 2004, Camden Yards played as a hitter’s park again, but it was in the mid-90s again in 2005. I would expect Orioles Park to play as a pitchers park again this year.

What OPaCY has done is revolutionize the Orioles attendance and make every team believe that if they build a retropark they too will see a permanent stream of money pouring through the turnstiles. Despite the O’s losing, their attendance still ranks in the top third of the American League. From 1992-2000 the O’s were either 1st or 2nd in the AL in attendance each season. Then the losing started to take its toll. They have been 4th, 3rd, 5th, 5th, and 5th the past five seasons. That’s not bad considering where they have ranked in terms of on field performance.

2006 ZiPS Projections - Baltimore Orioles

Name               P     G   AB    R    H  2B  3B  HR  RBI   BB    K  SB  CS   AVG   OBP   SLG 
Tejada             ss  162  654   92  198  46   3  28  113   50   74   5   1  .303  .357  .511 
Mora               3b  136  531   79  155  30   1  21   83   54   95   7   5  .292  .366  .471 
Lopez              c   124  466   61  136  26   2  22   76   32   79   0   1  .292  .343  .498 
Roberts#           2b  154  627   99  185  46   5  10   70   78   83  28  13  .295  .372  .432 
Hernandez          c   111  395   47  112  20   1  15   67   28   50   1   0  .284  .335  .453 
Gibbons*           rf  138  510   65  139  30   2  21   78   36   66   0   1  .273  .321  .463 
Freire             1b  134  462   55  125  26   1  15   63   41   79   1   0  .271  .337  .429 
Majewski*          rf  114  412   67  115  17   5  12   56   30   58  14   5  .279  .332  .432 
Hidalgo            rf  114  409   57  103  22   1  20   66   38   95   3   3  .252  .321  .457 
Millar             1b  142  487   57  126  24   1  13   59   59   82   1   2  .259  .348  .392 
Matos              cf  126  466   64  131  26   3   9   50   35   79  15   8  .281  .339  .408 
Markakis*          rf  117  417   62  111  24   2   9   54   41   85   4   2  .266  .333  .398 
Newhan*            2b  125  444   78  120  24   5  10   55   36   86  12   6  .270  .325  .414 
Daigle             1b  130  458   65  115  26   1  19   66   34   97   4   3  .251  .312  .437 
Clark*             3b   96  328   40   91  18   1   4   34   34   26   1   2  .277  .348  .375 
Hall               lf  121  399   81   98  21   3   7   47   51   74  13   6  .246  .338  .366 
Patterson*         cf  146  564   73  141  22   4  20   77   37  144  23   8  .250  .297  .410 
Reed               rf  111  399   49  101  20   1  11   46   24   88   5   4  .253  .305  .391 
Fiorentino*        lf  106  383   58   93  15   2  14   48   23   94   9   4  .243  .291  .402 
Conine             1b  134  433   46  108  22   1   7   57   35   71   3   2  .249  .307  .353 
Garabito#          ss  118  414   58  105  24   3   4   40   30   48   9   6  .254  .308  .355 
Gomez              3b   88  249   26   64   9   1   2   23   22   25   2   2  .257  .318  .325 
Relaford#          2b  118  391   44   87  17   2   6   41   37   63   9   3  .223  .297  .322 
Johnson            3b  132  474   50  104  21   2  10   48   34  104   5   4  .219  .278  .335 
Whiteside          c    96  309   28   68  17   1   7   32   17   64   1   1  .220  .266  .350 
Huggins            1b  115  387   37   85  15   0   5   34   38   99   1   2  .220  .294  .297 
Gil                c    97  346   35   78  16   0   4   30   23   57   1   1  .225  .279  .306 
Rogers             ss  122  429   51  100  21   1   5   37   21   70  13   9  .233  .275  .322 
Lopez              ss   88  241   23   52  11   0   5   27    9   43   1   2  .216  .254  .324 
Marsters           c   101  330   34   67  18   0   5   28   17   78   1   1  .203  .249  .303 
Rine*              cf  117  402   52   75   9   3   3   24   32   91  16   7  .187  .252  .246 

Name                 W   L    ERA   G  GS     INN    H   ER  HR   BB    K 
Moreno               4   3   3.86  41   0    49.0   45   21   3   19   42 
Ray                  4   3   3.91  66   0    69.0   61   30   9   23   75 
Hawkins              6   4   3.99  72   0    70.0   68   31   8   19   54 
Bedard*              8   7   4.04  26  25   147.0  136   66  10   62  128 
Halama*              4   4   4.22  36  10    96.0   99   45   8   28   54 
Williams             5   4   4.25  66   0    72.0   75   34   5   23   32 
Rakers               5   5   4.56  61   0    81.0   76   41  14   29   81 
Darensbourg*         3   3   4.59  56   0    51.0   52   26   5   20   30 
Lopez               10  14   4.62  34  30   187.0  199   96  24   55  115 
Benson               9  11   4.63  28  28   171.0  182   88  21   51   96 
Rleal                3   4   4.66  50   0    58.0   57   30   9   21   54 
Cabrera              9  11   4.67  30  30   160.0  145   83  14   92  140 
DuBose*              9  11   4.71  32  24   151.0  153   79  21   54  108 
Chen*                8  10   4.77  33  30   166.0  168   88  28   54  125 
Bottalico            2   3   4.81  54   0    58.0   57   31   5   30   40 
Johnson              9  10   4.84  26  24   145.0  151   78  17   59  116 
Stephens             5   6   4.86  24  20   126.0  136   68  22   32   85 
Parrish*             3   3   4.93  50   1    73.0   66   40   6   48   67 
Brower               5   6   4.94  71   1    82.0   83   45   9   36   55 
Rodriguez            2   2   4.97  53   0    67.0   62   37   6   42   56 
Byrdak*              2   4   5.05  65   1    66.0   62   37   9   37   63 
Yates                4   8   5.07  36   8    71.0   66   40   7   44   58 
Penn                 7  11   5.10  29  26   143.0  146   81  22   63  112 
Finch                8  11   5.25  26  26   144.0  162   84  19   57   85 
Bruback              6  10   5.43  29  22   141.0  152   85  23   61   94 
Burres*              4  10   5.67  30  21   135.0  155   85  24   50   84 
Loewen*              6  10   5.75  26  25   130.0  133   83  12   93  102 
Gracesqui*           2   4   5.82  42   0    51.0   43   33   3   54   55 
Jensen               5  10   6.00  29  23   138.0  161   92  23   63   77 

Disclaimer:  ZiPS projections are computer-based projections of performance.  
Performances have not been allocated to predicted playing time in the majors - 
many of the players listed above are unlikely to play in the majors at all in 2006.  
ZiPS is projecting equivalent production - a .240 ZiPS projection may end up 
being .280 in AAA or .300 in AA, for example.  Whether or not a player will play 
is one of many non-statistical factors one has to take into account when predicting 
the future.