2006 Chicago Cubs

Why do I have this nagging feeling that decades from now I'll be as eager to talk about the 2003 NLCS as Ron Santo is to talk about the autumn of '69? When I walked out of Joe Robbie after Game Four, the Cubs were up 3-1 with Zambrano, Prior, and Wood set to go in the next three games. In the unlikely event the Marlins came back to steal the series, the Cubs still looked stacked with young talent and set to contend for years to come.

Since then, things have slid steadily downhill. Injuries struck Wood and Prior in 2004, and despite an improved offense propelling the team to one more win than in '03, better competition meant no playoff appearance. Management dismissed the broadcast team at the end of the year, and yet somehow 2005 turned out to be worse. Neither Prior nor Wood were able to get healthy and stay healthy and the offense regressed as well. The team finished below .500 and entered the off-season in disarray.

Despite their record, Jim Hendry surveyed the team and concluded that Lee, Ramirez, and the starting pitchers constituted enough front-line talent to build around as the core of a playoff team. He acquired Juan Pierre and Jacque Jones to play outfield, and Scott Eyre and Bob Howry to patch the bullpen. Hendry and Dusty Baker seem to have slotted rookies Matt Murton and Ronny Cedeno for left field and shortstop respectively, and with those peripheral changes the team headed to Mesa to give it a go.

Catcher (2005 OPS .791, #4 in MLB)
Michael Barrett (Age 29, 2006 ZiPS OPS .810)
Henry Blanco (Age 34, 2006 ZiPS OPS .609)

Since being acquired two winters ago for Damian Miller, Barrett has made catcher an offensive strength for the Cubs by posting two very solid (and nearly indistinguishable) offensive seasons. Barrett is a converted shortstop, and although has received generally good reviews for his willingness to work on defense opposing runners continue to have success running against him (25% caught in '04, 23% in '05). By contrast, Blanco consistently catches nearly half of would-be opposition base stealers while hitting like a back-up catcher.

First Base (2005 OPS 1.071, #1 in MLB)
Derrek Lee (Age 30, 2006 ZiPS OPS .980)

From 2000-2004, Derrek Lee often started slow. His average April OPS in that time period was .783, for May it was .732. Each year he'd pick up the pace though, and by season's end his OPS fell between .820 and .887. Wistful Marlins fans (later echoed by their Cub counterparts) would oft be heard saying "If only one year he would start hot...". 2005 they got their wish.

Lee 2005 OPS by Month
April	  1.257
May	  1.070
June	  1.171
July	  1.048
August	  1.000
September 1.003

It was a year to win over the most die-hard Hee Seop Choi enthusiast. Lee set career highs in nearly every hitting category, led the league in batting average, SLG, OPS, hits, total bases, doubles, and extra-base hits. He won his second Gold Glove, and even tied Corey Patterson for the team lead in stolen bases with fifteen.

Now the question is whether Lee's 2006 will look like 2005 or like the previous five years. ZiPS naturally answers "somewhere in between," and that certainly makes sense, especially after a look at what changed for Lee last year. His batting average on balls in play jumped from .305 and .306 the previous two years up to a career-high .349. While he did manage BABIPs between .325 and .335 in 2000, 2001, and 2002, it is nonetheless likely that this year's number will regress toward the mean. On the other hand, part of the boost in Lee's effectiveness was attributable to a big jump in his power numbers (.327 Isolated Power, .090 higher than his previous career high). Furthermore, it wasn't a case of a handful of doubles sneaking over the fence. Lee bested his career mark in doubles by eleven and in homers by 14.

Second Base (2005 OPS .788, #8 in MLB)
Todd Walker (Age 33, 2006 ZiPS OPS .771)
Jerry Hairston, Jr. (Age 30, 2006 ZiPS OPS .728)
Neifi Perez (Age 33, 2006 ZiPS OPS .641)

The question has been raging all winter and into the spring - why isn't Todd Walker the Cubs' presumptive starter at second base? Cubs management cites his sub-par range, but Walker's bat would seem more than enough to make up for his defense which (as he has pointed out in the press) matters less on a team with a s trikeout-prone staff like the Cubs. Perez, despite a hot April that led to a brief All-Star write-in campaign, was dreadful over the rest of the year and ended with numbers no better than his mediocre career averages. Hairston is better, but his career high SLG of .397 is identical to Walker's career low way back in 1999. The Cubs need substantial improvement at multiple positions to contend this year. A decline at second base would make the task that much tougher, and Walker is the only man likely to keep the Cubs in the top half of the majors at second base.

Third Base (2005 OPS .881, #5 in MLB)
Aramis Ramirez (Age 28, 2006 ZiPS OPS .900)

Despite repeated dalliances with the disabled list, Ramirez has managed to appear in 86% of the Cubs' games during his tenure with the team, and when he has played he has hit. His walk rate and batting average slipped a bit from the highs of 2004, but his power remained excellent. His range remains fair and his fielding percentage worse, but his bat more than makes up for it. The Cubs desperately need him healthy and hitting.

Shortstop (2005 OPS .677, #21 in MLB)
Ronny Cedeno (Age 23, 2006 ZiPS OPS .744)
Neifi Perez (Age 33, 2006 ZiPS OPS .641)

If he plays shortstop instead of second, Neifi's glove is slightly more valuable and his bat slightly more forgivable. Even so, his ZiPS OPS of .641 would be one of the worst in the majors and leave the Cubs in desperate straits. Enter Ronny Cedeno- the youngster has a solid defensive rep and is coming off a breakthrough year (.921 OPS at Iowa, .731 with a .356 OBP in the bigs.) There are two caveats. First, Dusty Baker will be hesitant to turn over the reins to a rookie, particularly with a trusty veteran to choose instead. Perhaps more importantly, Cedeno's offensive numbers were downright terrible in rookie and A ball. He stepped up to a .729 OPS in AA in 2004 and the aforementioned numbers last year, but I'm not overly confident that he's going to jump in the lineup and hit. If he doesn't, You Know Who will be waiting in the wings...

Left Field (2005 OPS .738, #20 in MLB)
Matt Murton (Age 24, 2006 ZiPS OPS .780)

Like Cedeno, Murton is a youngster who has hit increasingly well as he moved through the minors. Unlike with Cedeno, there is no obvious veteran replacement waiting in the wings, so Murton may see playing time even in the event of back-to-back 0-4 games. He was adequate defensively in college and by most accounts in the minors.

Center Field (2005 OPS .643, #29 in MLB)
Juan Pierre (Age 28, 2006 ZiPS OPS .741)

For all the off-season talk, Pierre turned out to be the single biggest acquisition the Cubs would make. The good news is, he need only turn in an average big league center field season to be a big improvement over what the Cubs had in 2005. The bad news is that might be all he is capable of. There are bright spots in his record- he posted OBPs of .361 and .374 his first two years in Florida, and an uncharacteristically low BABIP last year makes 2005 look like a fluke. Still, he has little power and only an average glove. Even his career OBP of .355 would have placed him in just sixtieth place among big league hitters last year, and half of that career was compiled for the Colorado Rockies. Again, this should be an improvement, but Pierre is unlikely to be any better than an average center fielder for the Cubs this year.

Right Field (2005 OPS .746, #25 in MLB)
Jacque Jones (Age 31, 2006 ZiPS OPS .753)

The other significant hitter acquired by Hendry, Jones should hit about as well as Pierre but plays corner outfield, doesn't steal bases nearly as effectively, and shouldn't be on the field against lefties. Also, he's locked into a three-year, $16M deal.

Outfield Reserves
John Mabry (Age 35, 2006 ZiPS OPS .734)
Marquis Grissom (Age 39, 2006 ZiPS OPS .670)
Angel Pagan (Age 24, 2006 ZiPS OPS .641)

Mabry should be a lock, with the final roster spot a toss-up between Grissom and Pagan. Mabry took a step backward with the Cardinals last year, mostly due to his batting average dipping to .240. He still walks and hits for a bit of power, so if he can arrest his decline he could be a passable fourth outfielder. There's talk that Pagan may nab the last spot, but his minor league numbers show no particular promise and Grissom may actually be the better choice. Of course if Grissom's on the roster, the threat of him replacing Murton in left may become all too real.

Starting Pitching

Mark Prior (Age 25, 2006 ZiPS ERA 3.43) and Kerry Wood (Age 29, 2006 ZiPS ERA 3.76)

The playoff hopes of the 2006 Cubs very likely rest on the right arms of two men who haven't looked like themselves since the first half of the 2003 NLCS. When healthy, both have consistently been among the best pitchers in baseball, but the on-going saga of their health has left all but the most optimistic fans cynical and embittered.

And yet, there were still signs of hope. Both men maintained sterling strikeout rates (perhaps the single best indicator of future pitching success). Both were above average in most indicators with the exception of homers allowed. Last year, the Cubs got 66 innings of league average pitching out of Wood, but 168 innings of above average pitching out of Prior. They'll need that much at an absolute minimum, but Dusty has to be counting on getting more. It's anyone's guess if that's going to happen.

Carlos Zambrano (Age 25, 2006 ZiPS ERA 3.40)

On the bright side, there's Z. Zambrano has borne an increasingly heavy workload the last three years, but so far has shown no ill effects. Last year he managed a career-high 223 innings while his K/9 edged up to a career-best 8.14. Furthermore, his splits actually show a slight improvement in his effectiveness as games wore on. He allowed a few more homers than in previous seasons, but his G/F ratio stayed very high at 1.62 (14th highest in the majors) minimizing any cause for alarm. Although there are no sure things when it comes to pitching, Zambrano may be as close as it gets right now.

Greg Maddux (Age 40, 2006 ZiPS ERA 4.14)

Greg Maddux is one of the very best in baseball history, and at 39 last year he remained an effective pitcher. Yet it must be said that over the last four years he's been steadily losing his uncanny ability to mesmerize hitters. His durability and walk rate have stayed as amazing as ever, but his K/9 (never high) has slipped, as has his G/F ratio and with it his homer rate. The five highest homer allowed totals of his career have come in the last six years, with the two highest in 2004 and 2005. He may yet have enough guile to squeeze out another effective year, but the end is going to come sooner rather than later, and maybe as soon as this year.

Glendon Rusch (Age 31, 2006 ZiPS ERA 4.53)

The Cubs stayed in the hunt in 2004 as long as they did largely because Glendon Rusch managed a career year when Wood and Prior were suffering from injuries. He did it with improvements to both his homer rate and his control. In 2005 Wood and Prior were hurt again, but this time Rusch not surprisingly regressed towards his career averages across the board. As welcome as his performance in 2004 was, numbers like last year's are far more likely in 2006.

Jerome Williams (Age 24, 2006 ZiPS ERA 4.36)

Williams had a very good rookie season and although his K/9 has slipped since (and his ERA with it), he still managed league-average performances each of the last two years. He still has age on his side, and if he can get the K-rate back up he's got the potential to improve on his last two seasons.

Ryan Dempster (Age 29, 2006 ZiPS ERA 4.06)

Dempster found a home in the Chicago bullpen last year, with a high K-rate and much improved control, as well as a new-found ability to keep the ball in the park. Normally he might be expected to regress toward the mean, but since the dramatic improvements came with a move to relief it may be that role simply suits him better.

Scott Eyre (Age 34, 2006 ZiPS ERA 3.48)

In Eyre's first seven big league seasons, he managed an ERA under 4.46 just twice (once in 15.2 innings pitched.) Then in 2004 his K/9 jumped from the 5-6 range to 8.37 and his ERA dropped to 4.10. In 2005 the K/9 inched higher still to 8.56, and he cut his walk rate and halved his homer rate. The result was a career year, highlighted by a gaudy 2.63 ERA. The chances of him being that good over the next three years are not great, but it was a gamble Jim Hendry was willing to take as he signed Eyre for $11M over the next three years.

Bob Howry (Age 32, 2006 ZiPS ERA 3.32)

Howry signed for roughly the same money as Eyre, and is a gamble in his own way. Howry has had superb control throughout his career, and he's usually been fair at keeping the ball in the park. The parabola of his career (pretty good, to marginal, to excellent) has mostly tracked his strikeout rate, with the glaring exception of last year. 2005 saw his K/9 plummet from 8.23 to 5.92, even as his batting average allowed fell from .228 to .191. This is extremely unlikely to occur again in 2006, so he'll have to get his K-rate back up to earn his paycheck.

Scott Williamson (Age 30, 2006 ZiPS ERA 3.86)

Another pitcher, another gamble. In previous incarnations, Williamson has been one of the most effective relievers in the game. After Tommy John surgery, he struggled in some late season appearances last year with the Cubs. He has probably the most upside of anyone in the Cubs pen, if only he can return to his pre-surgery form.

Will Ohman (Age 26, 2006 ZiPS ERA 4.50)

Ohman was a distant memory after two Tommy John surgeries, but when he got another chance with the Cubs in 2005 he grasped it with both hands and didn't let go. Despite control problems at times, he managed 43.1 innings of quality work with a sterling 9.35 K/9. With the signing of Eyre, Dusty may free one or both from the constraints of a lefty specialist role.

Michael Wuertz (Age 27, 2006 ZiPS ERA 3.82)

There was no sophomore slump for Wuertz. His K/9 jumped from an excellent 9.31 to a gaudy 10.59, and a higher G/F ratio helped him keep the ball in the park a bit better. He was again far better against right-handed hitters, as his control sometimes deserts him against lefties.

Spare Parts

With Prior and Wood unavailable, one additional pitcher is likely to make the Opening Day roster. Press reports indicate a four-way race between Angel Guzman, Rich Hill, Sean Marshall, and Jae Kuk Ryu. There will likely be an additional bullpen slot as well, with John Koronka and Todd Wellemeyer the leading contenders. Felix Pie, a speedy outfielder who torched AA at age 20 last year, is the only prospect close to blue-chip status. If one of the current starting outfielders falters Pie may be called up sooner rather than later. Ryan Harvey, Brian Dopirak, and Luis Montanez have all faltered in the minors the last few years, and none seems likely to make an impact with the big club.

Conclusion

The Cubs finished 79-83 last year. Assuming it will take at least a 90-72 record to contend for the wildcard, it is hard to see where this club might find the extra eleven wins. Last year's club was inefficient at scoring runs considering their raw offensive output, so perhaps a few wins could be gained with an average performance there. If a miracle occurs and either Wood or Prior manage a relatively full, healthy season, perhaps another win or two. The improvement in center is substantial, and the bullpen and corner outfield slots should see some marginal improvement as well.

On the other hand, Greg Maddux is likely to continue to slide as he hits 40 this year. Derrek Lee is unlikely to repeat his career year, and its hard to imagine getting top-ten production at second if management succeeds in trading or marginalizing Todd Walker. Injuries could hit any team at any time, but this Cubs team is particularly vulnerable. Prior, Zambrano, Wood, Ramirez, and Lee are as talented a top-five as any team in baseball, but the second tier starters and reserves for the Cubs are weaker than many other would-be contenders. If Zambrano hurts his arm, or Ramirez re-pulls a quad, or Pierre comes up lame, there are few good options behind them.

I think this team is too talented to finish with less than eighty wins again. With no unexpected setbacks and no notable injuries they have a shot at contending, but a win total in the mid-80s seems more likely. I'll say 85-77, and a contract-extension for Dusty if they are in it at the All-Star break.

2006 ZiPS Projections - Chicago Cubs

Name               P     G   AB    R    H  2B  3B  HR  RBI   BB    K  SB  CS   AVG   OBP   SLG 
Lee                1b  159  593  104  183  44   2  38  114   84  121  14   5  .309  .398  .582 
Ramirez            3b  142  549   83  166  33   1  32  104   45   75   1   2  .302  .359  .541 
Barrett            c   125  410   47  113  29   4  14   58   37   60   0   3  .276  .342  .468 
Murton             lf  137  470   64  136  16   4  14   56   42   77  10   5  .289  .350  .430 
Sing               1b  121  385   64   92  21   0  20   60   61  109   1   4  .239  .345  .449 
Walker*            2b  125  451   60  125  26   3  13   57   40   49   1   2  .277  .336  .435 
Pierre*            cf  162  676  101  208  24  10   2   71   50   43  52  22  .308  .359  .382 
Restovich          rf  125  408   70  104  23   2  18   62   36  108   4   3  .255  .319  .453 
Cedeno             ss  113  345   46   99  15   2   8   40   20   63  13   4  .287  .332  .412 
Craig#             3b  108  348   53   88  19   1  14   50   35   84   4   3  .253  .326  .434 
Jones*             rf  145  541   69  140  26   2  22   78   42  126  11   7  .259  .317  .436 
Hairston           2b   98  333   44   91  22   2   3   31   31   39   9   9  .273  .350  .378 
Fontenot*          2b  130  454   63  119  23   5   7   43   46  103  10   8  .262  .340  .381 
Greenberg*         cf   88  321   43   85  11   8   3   41   32   82  12   5  .265  .336  .377 
Mabry*             1b   99  224   23   55  12   1   9   31   20   58   0   0  .246  .305  .429 
Deardorff          3b  109  385   53   94  15   2  15   52   40  107   5   4  .244  .316  .410 
Pie*               cf   87  330   59   90  11   5   8   33   20   93  17  10  .273  .319  .409 
Grissom            cf  110  404   42  103  17   1  11   51   18   71   3   1  .255  .286  .384 
Soto               c    98  305   35   72  12   0   6   33   33   84   1   1  .236  .312  .334 
Lewis              2b  129  439   56  106  21   4   7   38   35  113   8   6  .241  .301  .355 
Spears*            2b  109  400   52   99  15   4   4   36   27   80   5   3  .248  .300  .335 
Perez#             ss  140  482   46  125  25   1   6   47   19   43   5   3  .259  .288  .353 
Dopirak            1b  137  503   62  114  21   0  19   65   28  118   2   2  .227  .271  .382 
Padgett*           lf  127  425   48   96  20   2  11   52   31  134   2   1  .226  .281  .360 
Pagan#             cf  130  508   69  127  16   6   5   44   40  111  22  16  .250  .306  .335 
Hoffpauir*         1b  121  416   48   97  18   2   6   41   28   81   2   1  .233  .286  .329 
Ojeda#             ss  114  334   45   73  16   0   3   26   34   37   5   5  .219  .309  .293 
Blanco             c    81  225   22   46  12   0   7   27   15   39   0   2  .204  .258  .351 
Kopitzke           c    81  251   18   55   7   1   0   16   17   40   1   2  .219  .280  .255 

Name                 W   L    ERA   G  GS     INN    H   ER  HR   BB    K 
Howry                7   3   3.32  67   0    65.0   55   24   6   17   53 
Zambrano            13   9   3.40  32  32   209.0  170   79  15   83  198 
Prior               10   7   3.43  26  26   168.0  139   64  18   52  202 
Eyre*                3   1   3.48  83   0    62.0   51   24   5   27   57 
Wood                 9   7   3.76  25  22   146.0  115   61  18   64  177 
Wuertz               3   3   3.82  72   0    73.0   57   31   7   38   88 
Williamson           2   2   3.86  42   0    42.0   32   18   4   23   50 
Miller              11  10   4.01  27  27   155.0  137   69  14   67  139 
Dempster             4   3   4.06  58   5    82.0   71   37   4   45   80 
Maddux              14  14   4.14  35  35   215.0  228   99  30   36  129 
Williams            10  11   4.36  29  28   165.0  164   80  17   62  104 
Guzman               3   3   4.39   9   9    41.0   42   20   6   10   28 
Ohman*               2   3   4.50  65   0    50.0   39   25   7   30   63 
Aardsma              8  10   4.53  41  21   141.0  147   71  18   43  103 
Rusch*               7   7   4.53  39  18   139.0  152   70  12   46  102 
Novoa                6   6   4.55  63   0    83.0   84   42  10   32   70 
Ryu                  8   9   4.59  26  26   155.0  167   79  19   46  110 
Pignatiello*         7   9   4.73  35  24   156.0  160   82  22   55  130 
Hill*                6   8   4.78  30  22   130.0  117   69  21   65  156 
Brownlie             6   8   4.91  25  19   110.0  114   60  17   40   83 
Reith                3   5   4.94  44   1    62.0   61   34   7   31   47 
Bartosh*             2   3   4.98  53   0    56.0   55   31   9   25   52 
Koronka*             8  12   5.01  27  24   151.0  155   84  20   67  110 
Fox                  1   2   5.14  26   0    28.0   24   16   2   22   31 
Corey                3   5   5.16  47   0    68.0   77   39  10   24   44 
Rohlicek*            3   4   5.23  56   0    62.0   55   36   4   49   57 
Wellemeyer           3   6   5.23  33  12    86.0   80   50  11   55   86 
Lee                  2   5   5.70  51   0    60.0   60   38   9   37   46 

Disclaimer:  ZiPS projections are computer-based projections of performance.  
Performances have not been allocated to predicted playing time in the majors - 
many of the players listed above are unlikely to play in the majors at all in 2006.  
ZiPS is projecting equivalent production - a .240 ZiPS projection may end up 
being .280 in AAA or .300 in AA, for example.  Whether or not a player will play 
is one of many non-statistical factors one has to take into account when predicting 
the future.