2006 Chicago White Sox

Looking Forward to 2006: Chicago White Sox

I’m tremendously proud of my spot-on analysis of the 2005 White Sox. If you recall, I correctly predicted that the Sox would destroy their competition en route to the franchise’s first World Series victory since 1917. Even though Kenny Williams had swapped good hitters for bad hitters and mediocre relievers, I remember distinctly that I argued that naysayers should have faith in the organization and see the big picture. And then I said . . .. hmm? You remember things differently? You think that I said what? Oh, no, I’m sure that you must be mistaken. Seriously, please stop saying those awful lies about my preview. Stop it. Lalalalalalalalalalala . . . . I can’t hear you . . . lalalalalalalala . . . I’m not listening . . . . lalalalalalalalalala.

WHAT WENT RIGHT IN 2005

What didn’t?

General Manager Ken Williams restructured the team to emphasize offensive balance, defensive efficiency and solid pitching. His most notable off-season trade brought in a speedy, left-handed hitter and bullpen help while saving enough money to allow him to cherry pick other teams’ castoffs and less-in-demand free agents. His free agent signees added defensive speed to the outfield and depth for the pitching staff. Fortune smiled so brightly on Williams that by seasons end, even his minor off-season moves netted huge dividends in the form of a relief ace and top-ten minor league prospect.

On the field, several players developed with stunning rapidity and injuries were virtually non-existent. Pitchers Jon Garland, Neal Cotts, Bobby Jenks and Brandon McCarthy all harnessed their unfulfilled talents, while veterans Jose Contreras, Cliff Politte and Dustin Hermanson rediscovered their old skills. The only player who suffered from a serious injury, Frank Thomas practically carried the team, when he was healthy.

They blitzed the league in the season’s first two months, building a lead that would stretch to 15 games by August 1^st. They stumbled a bit in August and early September, but then destroyed Detroit and Cleveland during the final two series to win 99 games, the most by any White Sox team since 1983.

If anything, they were better in the playoffs than in the regular season. They swept the Red Sox, beat the Angels four games to one and then swept the Astros in the World Series. Along the way their pitching staff, posted four consecutive complete game victories – the first time that this has happened since the early 1950s.

WHAT WENT WRONG IN 2005

Uh . . . . hold on . . . .give me a minute . . . well, not much, I guess.

Seriously, nothing really went wrong. I guess several things didn’t go just as the team would have hoped. For example, Frank Thomas was hurt for all but one month of the season. Shingo Takatsu began the season as the team’s closer but was soon supplanted and shipped out. And then there was the tremendous scare late in the year, when Cleveland reduced a 15 game deficit on August 1 to 1 ½ games in the season’s last week.

OFF-SEASON PLAYER MOVEMENT

• Re-signed 1B Paul Konerko, C Chris Widger, UT Pablo Ozuna
• Signed P Tim Redding (minors), P Jeff Farnsworth, P Vladimir Nunez (minors), P Chad Bentz (minors), P Stephen Randolph (minors), P Javier Lopez (minors), P Pascual Matos (minors), OF Mark Quinn (minors), OF Ruben Rivera (minors), 1B Ernie Young (minors), 1B Bucky Jacobson (minors), SS Jorge Velandia (minors) as free agents.
• Claimed IF Tim Hummel in the Rule 5 draft.
• Traded OF Aaron Rowand, P Gio Gonzalez (minors) and P Dan Haigwood (minors) to Philadelphia for 1B Jim Thome.
• Traded P Damaso Marte to Pittsburgh for UT Rob Mackoviak.
• Traded OF Chris Young (minors), P Luis Vizcaino and P Orlando Hernandez to Arizona for P Javier Vazquez.
• Traded P Jeff Bajenaru (minors) to Arizona for IF Alex Cintron
• Traded OF Joe Borchard to Seattle for P Matt Thornton
• Lost DH Frank Thomas, DH Carl Everett, IF Geoff Blum, 2B-OF Willie Harris, OF Timo Perez, C Raul Casanova, C Ben Davis, C Jamie Burke, P Kevin Walker, P David Sanders, P Felix Diaz, P Jon Adkins free agency or waivers.

Cost certainty is the hallmark of the White Sox organization. In the 2005-2006 off-season the organization structured a team should compete for the division title for the next two years, while not breaking the bank. How did they accomplish this? . For twenty years, the Sox have had rather stringent guidelines about the kinds of contracts that they were willing offer – notably they refuse to offer a pitcher any contract longer than three years in length. To make that philosophy work in a market environment where good pitchers routinely receive four and five year deals for more than $12 million per annum, the Sox had to get creative. In what I believe is a first in major league history, the Sox swapped high quality minor leaguers for older major league talent with the caveat that the trading team ate large portions of the departing stars’ contracts. So, this past off-season the Sox were able to pickup Javier Vazquez for an acceptable rate (3 years/$27 million) because they were willing to part with prime prospect Chris Young. Likewise, they were able to lessen the risk of acquiring 35-year old Jim Thome, because they were willing to add an extra prospect in the deal in return for the Phillies eating a large chunk of the slugger contract. Paying a 35-year old $45 million over three years is silly, but paying him, $24 million over three years? Well, that’s doable. It’s a tremendously creative solution to the exigencies of the market. Ken Williams and the Sox should be lauded for it.

MINOR LEAGUERS

3B Josh D. Fields (ETA 2007)

A first round pick out of Oklahoma State, where he played third base and quarterback. Fields, 23, is a good athlete with a strong arm, but, after splitting his time between football and baseball in college, he is still learning how to play baseball. There is no questioning his power or his desire to exceed. Thus far, those two attributes have led him to swing at pitches off the plate much too frequently (hence, the mediocre walk totals and high strikeout rates). Scouts believe that he has the ability to hit for a good average, but he’ll have to learn to conquer the strike zone first. The Sox will continue to rush him ahead in 2006, designating him as the starting third baseman at AAA Charlotte.

OF Ryan Sweeney (ETA 2007)

Speaking of rushing a guy ahead. Taken in the second round out of a Cedar Rapids high school, Sweeney never benefited from the a year-round baseball schedule. Still, after only 29 games in the rookie leagues, the Sox skipped Sweeney, 21, over Lo-A for the 2004 season. Even though Sweeney posted only a league average line at Winston-Salem (albeit at a very young age), the Sox bumped him to AA Birmingham, where he posted a very similar line to his 2004 campaign. And, now the Sox have bumped him to AAA Charlotte. Scouts and the Sox believe that Sweeney will develop into a 20 homer guy in the big leagues, but the 6’5” Sweeney has hit only 10 home runs in over a 1000 minor league at bats thus far. This has led some analysts to question whether his power will ever develop, comparing him to other line-drive hitting big men, like Sean Burroughs. Never you fear, though. Even though Birmingham is a big park in a pitchers’ league, Sweeney still logged 22 doubles despite playing much of the season with a sprained tendon in his right wrist. He’ll be just fine.

OF Jerry Owens (ETA 2007)

Owens was snatched from the depths of the Washington Nationals system in exchange for perennial prospect Alex Escobar (who was out of options). Owens is the type of player that the Sox love to take a chance on – very fast low minor leaguer with limited baseball experience – in the hopes that the organization can bring out the best in him. A college football player (sense a trend here?), Owens has only been playing baseball full-time for three years and it shows at times, particularly on the bases and in the field. Still he has a solid approach at the plate and a nice line drive stroke. At 25-years old, Owens is battling the clock. He needs to pick up enough complementary skills to make him a major leaguer before his best offensive years are behind him. His upside is probably Juan Pierre, but he’s nowhere near that good now. He’ll start the season as AAA Charlotte’s centerfielder.

LHP Ray Liotta (ETA 2008)

The southpaw Liotta, 23, is a groundball pitcher with good strikeout numbers and good control. His fastball is only a bit above average (89-92 mph), but he has the nastiest 12-to-6 curveball you’ll ever want to see. Scouts worry about his mechanics a bit and he doesn’t yet have a pitch that will get good right-handed hitters out, but he’s done everything well thus far.

2B Chris Getz (ETA 2008)

Getz, 22, is a very good defender (possibly good enough to be a major league shortstop someday), but he’s also a fine hitter. He’ll never, ever hit for power but in 2005 he hit over .300 in his first year pro season while drawing 36 walks and striking out only 12 times (!!!) in 238 at bats. With a background at big time college baseball programs (Wake Forest and Michigan), Getz will be pushed ahead this season, skipping Hi-A in favor of AA Birmingham.

C Francisco Hernandez (ETA 2009)

Hernandez, 20, was a deep sleeper last season after he tore up the Apply League. However, he staggered through a half season at Lo-A before righting his offensive production in the Pioneer League last season. Built like Ivan Rodriguez (5’9”, 160 lbs), Hernandez hit for average, power and drawn walks thus far in his short career. Don’t think of Hernandez as a one-trick-pony though, since he’s also a good defensive catcher with a strong arm. Still just 20-years old, Hernandez will start the season back in Lo-A Kannapolis, but expect him to be pushed ahead vigorously if he, as expected, he hits well there, since he’s the only catcher in the system that has any hope of hitting at the major league level.

Others

Scouts absolutely rave about SS Robert Valido’s abilities with the leather. He’s not likely to ever hit too much, but he does have little pop and a good bit of speed (which he actually knows how to implement as a base stealing tool). Detroit area prep star 1B Casey Rogowski, 25, has finally made it to AAA, but he’s not likely to go too much further. He has a very good sense of the strike zone and has used that to drive balls much more over the last two seasons (48 extra base hits in 2004 and 52 last season). He’s a good fielder. I love RF Ricardo Nanita. He’s a wonderful hitter to watch, even though you might not get that impression by looking at his stat line. Nanita injured his right wrist after the 2003 season and the injury caused him to struggle when the Sox tried to push him to Winston-Salem in 2004. Now, finally, in AA Nanita is getting old to be considered a prospect, but I think that you’ll want him on your big league team in 2008. 1B Brandon Allen is the best power-hitting prospect in the organization, but his Pedro Cerrano-esque problems with breaking pitches have caused him to log a strikeout per game.

On the mound, RH Lance Broadway, 22, jumped from college to Hi-A ball and held his own. He gave up quite a few hits but, given his lack of experience, he controlled the strike zone well. RH Sean Tracey, 25, is a tease. He’s got all the tools to be a tremendous sinker-slider pitcher but he’s still learning to throw enough strikes to get people out regularly. There is talk around the Sox that his future lies is in the bullpen, which would be a waste. This spring training RH Charlie Haeger learned the perils of being a knuckleballer, as he was battered in every outing. Hager took to the knuckleball only after quitting professional baseball altogether. He hasn’t missed enough bats over the last two seasons to be very optimistic about him. LH Tyler Lumsden has a plus arm (he was taken ahead of Liotta and the since-traded Gio Gonzalez) but missed all of 2005 while recovering from surgery to remove a bone spur in his elbow. RH Josh L. Fields, 26, has pitched very well at every level but his “stuff” doesn’t impress anyone. He’ll need a break to make a major league roster, but, if history is any indication, he’ll probably perform well once there.

MAJOR LEAGUERS

C A. J. Pierzynski (2005: Pierzynski)

Pierzynski cashed in the one Sox post-championship generosity, securing a three-year 15 million dollar payday in December. The deal wasn’t just about good feelings though, there were three sensible reasons for this signing. For this season anyway, the deal paid A.J. his market value (Bengie Molina, who is two years older than Pierzynski, got $4.5 million this season). Additionally, left-handed hitting catchers are a rare breed and the White Sox have absolutely zero catchers in their system that are ready to start in the majors anytime soon.

Here’s the problem with the signing though, and it’s a big one in my book. As you may have heard, catchers age very, very, very poorly after the age of 30. Add to that, A.J. just isn’t a very good player right now. He can't run, hit for power, or draw walks and his average has taken a nose-dive. At this point in his career, he is basically Rich Gedman without the strike zone judgement. And Gedman posted a 52 (!!!) OPS after age of 28. Terry Kennedy, a much better hitter than A.J. in during their respective peaks, held on to a career that was about 70% of his peak into his mid-30s and played on two pennant winning teams after age-28. So, the outlook for Pierzynski is rather bleak. Perhaps, the best that the Sox might hope for is that A.J. might follow the lead of Kennedy, producing a 75 OPS+ and another pennant.

1B Paul Konerko (2005: Konerko)

I was in front of my computer for most the 2005 baseball postseason. Each time that Konerko hit a homer, which was frequently, a friend of mine would IM with the message “there’s another million bucks a year for his contract.” By the time the Sox had secured their first title, Konerko had raised his value (in a depressed market) by about $5 million per season.

While everyone you heard around here proclaimed that the Sox shouldn’t bring back Konerko, the outcome should never have been in doubt. Not only did the move signal that the Sox were serious about remaining in contention and further validate the Sox dedication to “team players,” but there were sensible on-field reasons for the signing as well. Contrary to popular perception, Konerko is an “old player skills” guy. If not for one dreadful half season in 2003, Konerko would have hit .277 or better for seven straight seasons. He can afford to lose 20 or 30 points off his average (and he will before his contract is over) and still be very effective, particularly if his walk rates continues to climb (as it has for the last three seasons). He is a legitimate 125-135 OPS+ guy for the next three seasons. No, when he drops back from that in his mid-30s, he won’t be worth the $15 million that the Sox will be paying him. But, at that point, if they can find a left-handed rookie first baseman (not a terribly daunting task) to platoon with PK, then the team should be just okay.

2B Tadahito Iguchi (2005: Iguchi)

So, who says that amateur analysts don’t know what they are talking about? Not, Sox G.M. Ken Williams anymore, I hope. Needing a regular second baseman, Williams signed Iguchi after only reading his stats and seeing him on videotape. Essentially, any of us could have done the same. What did Iguchi’s stats suggest that he might do in 2005? ZiPS projected him at .281/.363/.427, which is nearly a dead-on match for his final stats of .278/.342/.438. Iguchi was a tremendous bargain for the Sox in 2005, putting up an 830 OPS and contributing solid defense all for the bargain basement price of $2.5 million. He should be able to sustain this level of production through 2007, but with second basemen, you never know.

Aside: Here’s what a world championship does for one’s reputation. For years, all one heard around Chicago was how bad Ray Durham’s defense was. And, yet, all you heard from Sox fans last year was how good Iguchi’s glove was. Guess what? At the same age, Durham was very much better than Iguchi last season. It’s not even close. On ground balls, on fly balls, on balls to their left, Durham was all substantially better than Iguchi. What’s remarkable is that both players have the same flaw in their defensive game – neither can go to their right. Iguchi did turn the double play a bit better than Durham though, and there is nothing quite as powerful to the eye that a good pivot. It’s not a dig at Iguchi to say that, it’s time to pay the Sugar Bull (how come such an obvious nickname wasn’t foisted upon Durham?) his due.

3B Joe Crede (2005: Crede)

There is a lot of talk the Crede is a breakout candidate. Forgive me, but I just don’t see it. I know that he hit tremendously in his last 18 games and then in the ALCS and World Series. I know that there is talk that he made some kind of changes that spurred that surge. But, I’ve heard these tunes before. Here’s the thing. Sure, Crede finished the season strong (.379/.419/.759 in September), but he hit .106 in August. He posted an .893 OPS in July and a .497 OPS in May. This is just who he is. In 2004, he posted two seasons with an OPS over .833 and three with an OPS under .650. In 2003, he had a month over 1.000 OPS and two under .603. As for his swing change, I’ll believe it when I see it. Baseball history is replete with players who allegedly made some change that was destined to increase their production . . . only to find themselves in familiar territory when the season ended. Crede is a good player. As a hitter he is Tony Batista; overall his value is similar to that of Charlie Hayes -- fine glove man who could hit a bit too. That’s a good player. And for those of you who wish to see the cup as half-full, take a gander at Hayes’s season when he was Crede’s age (28). That’ll make you smile.

SS Juan Uribe (2005: Uribe)

With all due respect to Mssrs. Cabrera and Tejada, Juan Uribe is the best fielding shortstop in the American League. At a minimum of 215 pounds, he’s not built like the stereotypical shortstop and he looks funny running around the ball in the hole, instead of backhanding it. However, he’s just astounding on balls in the hole (thanks to the best infield arm since Shawon Dunston’s heyday) and excellent on balls in the air (witness Game Four of the 2005 World Series). And, while he wasn’t able to repeat his strong 2004 season with the bat, he’s still just 26 with the potential to an 800 OPS guy for the next three to five years. Not a bad return for Aaron Miles, no?

LF Scott Podsednik (2005: Podsednik)

I give you Rudy Law, 2005. Like Pods, Law was a very fleet outfielder and, like Pods, he was mostly impotent with a stick in his hand. Unlike Pods, Law was a very good centerfielder (although his arm was worse than Pods’s, as difficult as that might be to believe). Both were high percentage base stealers. Unlike Law, Pods can coax 50 or 60 walks a season. Unlike most statheads, I really like 1980s baseball and I really like Pods style of baseball, but try as I might, I can’t envision a realistic scenario in which Pods is still in the majors in 2009.

OF Brian Anderson (2005: Aaron Rowand)

I'm not very optimistic that Anderson has the ability to be a star at the major league level. He’s a solid toolsy prospect who has put up good or better numbers in three of his four minor league stops despite battling through wrist injuries and being rushed along. While we should all be skeptical of offensive numbers generated at Charlotte (due to its 345 foot power-allies), by my count, Anderson batted at least as well at home as on the road. His balanced skill set also should help to a longish career since he might develop any number of skills (batting for average or for power or drawing more walks) as he ages. I think that he has the potential to be Roberto Kelly or Shane Mack, (pretty good players for all you young-uns who don't remember the 1980s).

A year ago, scouts decried Anderson’s abilities in centerfield, calling him too slow and a poor route runner. Now after a year playing in a small centerfield next to the range-challenged Rosie Brown he's considered a good outfielder. How did this happen? It would be ironic if Anderson proved unable to handle center, after the Sox have dealt away two excellent fielding centerfielders (Rowand, Reed) whom they didn’t initially think would be able to handle the position.

RF Jermaine Dye (2005: Dye)

If there is one player that perfectly typifies the 2005 White Sox, it is Jermaine Dye. He hits for a solid batting average with above average power and doesn’t draw many walks. His defense is solidly respectable but nothing very exciting any more. He was the only prominent free agent that Kenny Williams brought in last season and like all of his 2005 teammates, he was paid a bit under his true value. Dye’s a good teammate and, by all indications, a good person. In a nutshell, he’s a good player who doesn’t beat himself while on the baseball diamond – like his team. So, when it was his solid, respectable, unspectacular single that won the deciding game of the World Series, I felt that there was a certain karmic peace in the baseball world.

DH Jim Thome (2004: Carl Everett/Frank Thomas)

With all due respect to the greatest player in the history of the franchise, what was Frank Thomas thinking? Was he seriously surprised that the Sox let him go? I mean, really? After reading the provisions of his renegotiated 2002 contract, didn’t he, like everyone else, know that he would be cut loose after the 2005 season? I know it stings, Frank, but you should have been preparing for this for the last four years.

Starting in 2006, Jim Thome should have two very solid seasons. Assuming, he healthy, he’s a good candidate to post a couple of 140 OPS+ seasons over the next three seasons. Players always age much, much faster than nearly everyone thinks that they will and there is certainly the possibility that Thome will collapse over the next 6-12 months. But, Thome was a great, great slugger before the injury and is likely to carry that forward until he’s 37 or so. Side note: While it’s quite possible that the Sox could have matched Thome’s level of production out of their DH slot if they had brought back Frank Thomas and then signed Hee Seop Choi or Carlos Pena to platoon with him (and saved themselves Rowand, two hot southpaw pitching prospects, and $15-20 million dollars in the process), Thome is the first stathead-friendly hitter that Ken Williams has acquired in six years, so I’m going to make too many waves.

BENCH

The White Sox 2006 bench is a much better crew than they have had in several years. That doesn’t mean that each player deserves his spot but that, overall, their roles have been well thought out to complement the team. Acquired for problem child, Damaso Marte, Rob Mackowiak anchors the bench. Over the winter, the Sox talked about playing Macko all over the field, but the subsequent pickup of Alex Cintron should limit him to third base and the outfield. A Chicagoan, Mackowiak has some real value (flexibility, left-handed bat), but if he’s asked to bat more than 200 times or so, he’s a liability. Picked up in a swap of superfluity, Cintron is a great bench player. Not only does he play an average shortstop and second base, but he’s also a switch-hitter in the middle of his prime batting years and should be able to log a 700 OPS. The White Sox brought Chris Widger back for an encore. No offense, but Widger is a pretty crappy player. It seems to me that a team’s backups need to be able to do something to contribute. On a team with a left-handed, poor defensive catcher, an ideal back up catcher would have a solid right-handed bat and play good defense. Widger, who hit .241/.296.383 and allowed 24 of 26 runners to steal, can do neither of those things. So, why exactly is he back? Pablo Ozuna played everywhere in 2005 and hit superficially well (.299 batting average) in the first half, making him seem more valuable than he is. In his limited major league tenure, Ozuna has played quite well at short and third but pretty dreadfully elsewhere and then there’s the whole problem of allowing him to come to bat. There are literally 100 players in or around major league baseball that can do Ozuna’s job, so to guarantee him a million dollars is just silly. And then there’s the Rodney Dangerfield of professional baseball, Ross Gload. Finally, given a chance to play in the big leagues somewhat regularly in 2004, Gload hit .321/.375/.479. But when he started off “slowly” (he got 13 at bats in the seasons first three weeks), the Sox used his “injured” shoulder as excuse to leave him in Charlotte for most of the season. Gload torched the International League to the tune of .364/.416/.657 and hit better away from his cozy home park than he did in it. Years from now, I’m going to do an oral history of guys like Gload and Champ Summers and Roberto Petagine and Orestes Destrade and a bunch of other guys and in it every interview will start “How frustrating was it . . . ?”

ROTATION

Mark Buehrle

I like to compare Buehrle to Tommy Glavine. No, that doesn’t make me a genius or anything. Buehrle is better than Glavine was at the same age. He’s better than Jimmy Key was at the same age. He strikes out more guys that people think he does; he doesn’t walk anybody; he’s got as good a pickoff move as anyone in the game. He’s pretty dang good. Personally, I think he has the ability to be one of the great durable lefties of the last fifty years. Of course, 25 years ago, I thought the same thing about John Candelaria too.

Freddy Garcia

I am not optimistic about Freddy Garcia. But, then I’ve never been optimistic about him. Still, Garcia’s strikeout rate dropped alarmingly last season, from 7.9 strikeouts/game in 2004 to 5.8 per game last season. I don’t know why this has happened. Perhaps, it’s a conscious choice. Since his ground ball rate climbed last season, perhaps he’s throwing the two-seam fastball (the Sox love the two-seamer). But, then again he’s thrown a ton of pitches over the last five years. All that’s certain about Garcia, it seems to me, is that he will have an ERA somewhere between 3.50 and 4.50. How’s that for going on a limb?

With every starting pitcher on the team locked up through the 2007 season, there is talk that Garcia could be traded to make room for Brandon McCarthy. I’ll believe it when I see it. Why? Garcia’s wife is the niece of his manager’s wife.

Jose Contreras

There’s an unconfirmed story floating around that Orlando “El Duque” Hernandez was rummaging through his home video collection and found a old videotape of Contreras from his Cuban National Team days, days when he could do no wrong. Allegedly, that tape helped Contreras rediscover his old release point and propelled him to a phenomenal second half. I don’t know whether the story is true, but something certainly clicked for Contreras after June. Over the last two months of the 2005 season, he was 9-1 with a 2.05 ERA while walking only 19 and striking out 62 in 79 innings. Recent scholarship suggests that pitchers who perform well in the mid-30s are likely to hold most of their value in the immediately succeeding years. The White Sox sure hope so, since they’ve resigned the 33-year old (cough) Contreras to a three-year extension.

Jon Garland

Garland doesn’t get any love. All we have heard about for four years is how Garland, despite his high relative win totals and his league-average ERA, will never amount to much. He doesn’t strike out enough, said some. He’s too laid back, said others. He doesn’t have the guts to go past 100 pitches, said a few. So, Garland goes out and drops his walk rate for four consecutive seasons while increasing his innings pitched by 30 a year and, in the process wins 18 with a 127 ERA+. And what do we hear? He can’t do it again. He’s probably not going to Kevin Brown and he’s not as good as Brandon Webb is currently, but if he keeps walking two batters a game, he’ll be a solid winner in this league for another ten years. Maybe then, after he’s won 180 games, people will finally give him some love . . . but probably not.

Javier Vazquez

Is it confidence or hubris? The White Sox believe that they can take any number pitchers and fix them. Sox pitching coach Don Cooper and the organization’s scouts might as well be saying, as Oscar Goldman used to say in the 1970s, “Gentlemen, we can rebuild him . . . we have the technology. Better than he was before, better, stronger, faster. . . .” The Sox have been very successful at reclamation projects over the last several years, notably helping Esteban Loaiza and Jose Contreras turn in dominant seasons. Vazquez is the Sox latest project. But even if Cooper’s reputation is more smoke than fire, Vazquez is still a good bet to rebound to his career levels. One thing is certain, with Vazquez has their team’s fifth starter many White Sox fans have become very confident? Or is it hubris?

BULLPEN

I have yet to use the world luck in this preview, but I’m tempted to use it when referring to the team’s bullpen in 2005. Last season, the Sox had three pitchers who posted ERAs that were less than half their career totals. Dustin Hermanson posted a 2.04 ERA despite season totals that would have ordinarily exacted a 4.05 ERA. Cliff Politte turned in a 2.00 ERA despite having a 3.67 expected ERA and Neal Cotts should have had a 3.33 ERA but instead logged a phenomenal 1.94 ERA. What do they have in common? Each of them had hit rates far, far below their established norms. (Additionally, Cotts only allowed homers on 2% of his fly balls, while the league average is about 10%). So, I think it’s safe to say that the Sox bullpen will not match their output of a year ago.

Mid-season callup Bobby “Jumbo” Jenks will close games for the Sox. Jenks’s wild past (both on and off the field) did not surface during the 2005 season. If he can keep his walks to four per game (down from his minor league norms of 5.5-7.0 a game) then Jenks will be just fine. Politte and Cotts are both very solid pitchers, if not the sub-2.00 gods that came to Earth last season. Cotts is the better of the two. His stuff is more suited to being a closer that a LOOGY. Politte is a solid pitcher but has a fastball that is much too straight at times. When he misses up in the zone, the ball ends up in the seats, but when he’s on he has the ability to hold opponents scoreless for a month or so at a time (as he did last season). Brandon McCarthy will pitch out of the bullpen for most of the 2006 season. He won’t stay there for long. Here’s my favorite thing about stathead arguments. One minute they’ll tell you that ALL young pitchers should pitch in middle relief, then when a team actually follows that advice, they all scream about how the team is wasting the young pitcher by using him in relief. I’m not saying that there should be one rule for all pitchers but it seems to me that there should be some kind of logical consistency to one’s arguments. At least, tell me why McCarthy doesn’t need the experience of pitching in middle relief. Matt Thornton, secured from Seattle for Joe Borchard in a swap of problem children, is Cooper’s latest reclamation project. Thornton has plenty of ability, but not any success thus far. Perhaps, he’ll be one of those lefties that find themselves in their 30s. And then there’s the guy who was named after two 1950s Midwest infielders, Boone Logan (Johnny Ray had already stolen their first names). Logan’s story is truly one for the ages. Nary a grizzled old veteran can remember a similar tale. Literally. Logan has pitched in the rookie-level Northwest League for the past three seasons and only last year did he have any success at all. However, when none of the eight southpaws that the Sox invited to spring training proved satisfactory, the team’s brass plucked Logan off the most distant of the team’s minor league practice fields and decided to give him the job. Unheard of. Logan hides the ball well -- slinging it at batters from ¾ delivery -- and has a decent change-up, so, if he can throw strikes, he’s likely to do well against right-handed batters. Unfortunately, he doesn’t have much of a breaking pitch yet, so it’s likely that lefties will eat him up. Still, he’s a good story. Still plagued by back woes, Dustin Hermanson is hoping to avoid retirement this season.

WHAT CAN KEEP THEM FROM WINNING THE DIVISION IN 2005?

Several things:

1) As was a possibility last season, they might not hit enough to complement their pitching staff and solid defense.

2) Cleveland or Minnesota or Detroit might do to the division what the Sox did to it last season -- get out to an early lead and step on its throat.

3) Injuries. The Sox do not have an old team but 30+ players like Konerko, Thome, Dye and Podsednik are all injury risks to one degree or another.

That said, pitching and defense is still the best way to build a team, and the Sox still have good amounts of both. So, they’ll be competitive in almost all their games, which is all any team can ask for at the beginning of a season. .