2006 Cincinnati Reds

Good day, welcome to Baseball Think Factory, this is the Cincinnati Reds Preview, and I'm your writer, Internet's Greg Tamer. Sit down, relax, take your pants off, and enjoy!

Powered by a 12-pack of Pepsi, three 44-oz Slurpees, two Whatchamacallits, two Jolt Colas, a pound of sugar, the latest technological gizmo, season one of Magnum, p.i. playing in the background, and the constant monitoring of my Yahoo! fantasy baseball keeper league teams two weeks before the MLB season even begins, let's get started...

The Review

For the fifth straight season (it's only been five seasons!?) the Reds finished 2005 with a losing record, and it's now been ten straight seasons without a post-season appearance (with apologies to the '99 team who lost to the Mets in the one-game playoff for the Wild Card spot).

But at least they haven't finished below a .400 winning percentage since 1982 when 34-year-old Johnny Bench was starting at 3B (not that he was their biggest problem that year; just a fun fact, that's all).

And, of course, there's still 1990 to reminisce about.

Bah! The problem here is the feeling of a lack of a future. Five years of losing wouldn't be as bad if it had progressed, as say, what happened recently in Cleveland when they purged the remnants of their previous championship-caliber squad and started anew with their next generation of young players. And it only took the Indians three years to do it, too!

The Reds don't seem to have a next generation. Sure, the last few years have introduced Adam Dunn, Austin Kearns, Wily Mo Pena, Felipe Lopez, and now, hopefully, Edwin Encarnacion, but where's the starting pitching? Where's the bloody starting pitching!? How is it possible for a team to go for so long without developing a great starting pitcher? Probably best not to answer that.

So despite having the best offense in the NL last year, the Reds failed due to their abysmal combination of pitching and fielding. Splendid! At least Griffey won the Comeback Player of the Year award. Yawn.

So let's forget about the last five years and discuss the recent changes and then look forward to the upcoming year...

The Changes

The changes started on June 21, 2005, when the last-place Reds fired manager Dave Miley and pitching coach Don Gullett. Replacing them were bench coach Jerry Narron and Minor League pitching coordinator Vern Ruhle (who sadly was recently diagnosed with cancer, but will continue his coaching duties), and these two guided the Reds to 46-46 record for the remainder of the season. How much credit should be given to these two for their .500 winning percentage is uncertain, but it's worth noting nonetheless.

This past December, general manager Dan O'Brien (no, not the former U.S. decathlete) signed Narron and Ruhle for the 2006 season, non-tendered pitchers Ramon Ortiz and Joe Valentine, re-signed catcher Jason LaRue and super utility Ryan Freel, and signed pitcher Chris Hammond.

He also made two trades, and I'll now remember December 8th as the day Lennon was shot (1980), the day Britain, Australia, and the United States declared war on Japan (1941), the day of the official end of the USSR (1991), the Feast of the Immaculate Conception of Mary (date of conception unknown, let's say approximately 22 B.C.), and when O'Brien traded first basemen and clubhouse leader Sean Casey for Pirates pitcher Dave Williams and, get this, acquired rejected Yankee second basemen (and left fielder I suppose) Tony Womack in exchange for two Minor Leaguers.

Trading Casey is understandable given his expensive contract and lack of slugging while manning first base. A year or two too late, perhaps, but Williams should at least be better than the departing Ortiz. But why he would acquire 35-year-old Womack, who peaked in 1998 with the Pirates and had a fluke season in 2004 with the Cardinals, is still a mystery. What's worse is that Womack could possibly lead off and start at second base for the Reds in 2006.

In the new year, O'Brien re-signed infielder Rich Aurilia (perhaps realizing having Womack as the only option at second base isn't a good idea, assuming you want Freel to remain your super utility player), signed pitcher Grant Balfour, and agreed to terms with Kearns and Aaron Harang, avoiding arbitration with them.

Then early in 2006, Reds majority owner Carl Lindner stepped aside and handed off majority ownership to Robert Castellini, president of the Castellini Co., who bought about 70% of the reportedly $270-million value of the club. Castellini is another Cincinnati native, keeping with Reds tradition to keep it local.

Castellini thankfully wasted no time in firing general manager Dan O'Brien, who had one year remaining on his three-year contract but had struggled to improve the Reds since the start of the off-season in 2003. And had traded for Tony Womack! O'Brien was quickly replaced by Twins assistant GM, Wayne Krivsky.

Krivsky finished the off-season transactions by signing pitcher Rick White, first basemen Scott Hatteberg, outfielders Timo Perez, Quinton McCracken, and Tuffy Rhodes (all three signed to Minor League contracts), and agreed to terms with Reds left fielder (and soon-to-be starting first basemen) Adam Dunn on a two-year, $18.5 million contract (which runs through his final two arbitration years) with a $13 million club option for 2008 (which would delay his free agency by one season).

Essentially O'Brien and Krivsky signed a handful of mediocre free agents, re-signed everyone important, traded Casey for Williams, and acquired Womack to compete for the starting position at second base. But they did not interfere with Encarnacion and Lopez on the left side of the infield and created a starting spot for Pena in LF by moving Dunn to 1B. But, unfortunately, they didn't really improve the pitching staff or the fielding, both of which were arguably the worst in MLB last year (and definitely were the worst when combined).

After these changes the past year, the Reds now have new leadership at all levels: the clubhouse (new leader still unknown, would think veteran and future Hall of Famer, Ken Griffey Jr., would replace Casey; perhaps LaRue, who is the longest-tenured player), coaching, management, and majority ownership. I'm looking forward to seeing if this makes any bit of difference.

The Regulars

Catcher - Jason LaRue and Javier Valentin

This two-headed monster led MLB in 2005 in team catcher OPS, narrowly edging out Victor Martinez and Josh Bard of the Indians for the honor. Both reached base well against both LHP and RHP (and only Valentin struggled with his slugging against LHP in just 38 AB), and both hit better on the road despite The Great American Ballpark being pegged as a hitter's park in 2005.

Also, LaRue is very good defensively, especially his throwing, and Valentin can hold his own as well, according to Diamond Mind Baseball's ratings. So what's not to like about the catching for the Reds in 2006? Most likely their age and overall past performance. LaRue is 32 this year and probably entering his decline phase. 2005 was also his first season with an OPS above .800. He's not expected to repeat the performance (this is based solely on data with no inside information or scouting). Valentin will be 30 and didn't post an OPS even above .700 until last year. So it's not surprising to see the ZiPS projections below for LaRue (proj .766 OPS) and Valentin (proj. .788 OPS). Which is still good at the catcher position, so I have no complaints.

First Base - Adam Dunn

Dunn will be moving from left field to first base to replace Casey and, as mentioned earlier, allow Pena to play regularly in the outfield with Griffey and Kearns. I also wouldn't be surprised to see Hatteberg receive some playing time at 1B, however, with Dunn playing in the outfield when Griffey needs rest or when Griffey and/or Kearns make their annual trip to the disabled list.

In The 1998 Big Bad Baseball Annual: The Book Baseball Deserves, Gerry Myerson in the Seattle Mariners chapter introduces Baseball Is Not A Contact Sport, or BINACS, for short. BINACS is simply adding a batter's strikeout and walk totals. It's also two-thirds of the Three True Outcomes (TTO), which also includes home runs. But let's leave out home runs since TTO is already popular. And instead of looking at BINACS as a counting stat, I want to first look at career BINACS rate. Therefore, using 1500 career PA (so just over two full seasons) as the minimum to be included, here are the players with the best BINACS rate:

Rank Name                PA    BB    SO  (BB+SO)/PA
 1.  Dave Nicholson    1661   219   573     0.477
 2.  Russell Branyan   1691   200   597     0.471
 3.  Lefty Grove       1579   105   593     0.442
 4.  Rob Deer          4512   575  1409     0.440
 5.  Adam Dunn         2783   462   733     0.429
 5.  Mark Bellhorn     2185   310   628     0.429
 7.  Red Faber         1550   169   479     0.418
 8.  Jim Thome         7281  1257  1762     0.415
 9.  Bo Jackson        2626   200   841     0.396
10.  Mickey Tettleton  5745   949  1307     0.393
11.  Brad Wilkerson    2690   377   656     0.284
12.  Ruben Rivera      1818   185   510     0.382
12.  Tom Seaver        1552   108   485     0.382
14.  Mark McGwire      7660  1317  1596     0.380
15.  Pat Burrell       3578   471   886     0.379
16.  Gorman Thomas     5486   697  1339     0.371
16.  Jay Buhner        5927   792  1406     0.371

The record has since been destroyed:

Year  Name           BB+SO
1998  Mark McGwire   317
2004  Adam Dunn      303
1999  Jim Thome      298
2002  Adam Dunn      298
2001  Jim Thome      296
1997  Jay Buhner     294
2003  Jim Thome      293
1969  Jimmy Wynn     290
2000  Jim Thome      289
2005  Adam Dunn      282

Despite the high strikeout and walk totals, Dunn is still expected to post a minimum of .250/.375/.550 in 150+ games, and given that he's only 26 years old, the Reds could enjoy this production at first base for the next six to eight years if they can keep him or decide not to trade him for some quick-fix starting pitching.

Second Base - Tony Womack

Part of an e-mail I received last December from my friend, Mike:

I'm driving home after a too-long day at work, 9PM ballpark. So I hear on ESPN Radio, "The NY Yankees today traded Tony Wo-"

At this point, I start saying - OUT LOUD - "Not the Reds, Not the Reds, Not the Reds".

Then I hear, "to the Cincinnati Reds"... At this point, I swear on all that is good and holy that I nearly yanked the steering wheel right into a ditch. I mean, TONY WOMACK? What the [firetruck] is going on here?

If Tony Womack is in the starting lineup for the Opening Day 2006 Reds, I will sit outside GABP and protest. Hopefully I'll get to hear Marty badmouth him on the radio.

Third Base - Edwin Encarnacion

Encarnacion is projected to be about four or five wins above replacement, but he could just as easily be the next Brandon Larson. Although Larson didn't have quite the track record that Edwin has.

Given there is no expectation for the Reds to be competitive in the NL (at least from where I'm sitting), Encarnacion should be allowed to play through any struggles he may have. The Brewers did this last year with J.J. Hardy, and he responded with a considerably improved second-half performance. Not that this strategy works every time, and of course Encarnacion could also work out his problems in Triple-A, but the Reds have nothing to lose here. So I hope to see Encarnacion manning the hot corner all season regardless of his performance. Let the kids play!

Shortstop - Felipe Lopez

I'm not impressed yet, as his 2005 season could very well be a fluke or perhaps his peak. I'll feel more comfortable if in 2006 he can repeat or nearly match his 2005 performance, but he had a significant jump in batting average in 2005 from past seasons and thus the ZiPS projection of only .273/.338/.444. It's very unlikely Lopez will follow Dave Concepcion and Barry Larkin as long-lasting incredible SS for the Reds. That's a high standard, of course, and Lopez should at least be a valuable shortstop for several years. But the Reds should be keeping an eye out sooner than later for an eventual replacement.

At the least, of the players involved in the December 15, 2002 four-team trade (so Erubiel Durazo, Elmer Dessens, Jason Arnold and Lopez), Lopez is the player I'd most like to have on my team right now.

Left Field - Wily Mo Pena

Pena's pathetic OBP is tolerable if he continues to maintain a slugging percentage near .500 or higher. Against RHP last year, he only batted .234/.282/.468, which still is excellent power against them, but a sub-.300 OBP is concerning. He probably doesn't want to become part of a platoon at the age of 24, but given the lack of depth by the Reds, he doesn't need to worry about that.

He's a liability in the OF except for his arm, which means his power at the plate is all that he has right now. If he can maintain it, he should receive more respect from pitchers, and his walk rate might increase if he can accept keeping his bat on his shoulder when he doesn't have a good pitch to hit.

He has yet to play a full season with the Reds, so as with Encarnacion at 3B, the Reds should simply keep Pena out there all season to see what he can do.

Center Field - Ken Griffey Jr.

For the 2005 season, Diamond Mind baseball handed out only four poor range ratings in CF: David Newhan, Xavier Nady, Jason Lane, and Griffey.

Using David Pinto's Probabilistic Model of Range for CF in 2005, Griffey ranked last. I should also point out that Pinto's Teams Run Saved calculations have the Reds as dead last in fielding for 2005.

Griffey was given a Lead Glove by David Gassko last October for his defense in CF in 2005.

That's three different fielding rating evaluations all illustrating that Griffey has become a terrible defender in CF. It's time the Reds moved him. To accomplish this, they should quietly discuss the matter with Griffey and have him publicly announce that due to his age and to prevent further injury, he wants to move to LF or 1B. The Reds can then happily oblige, moving Kearns or Pena to CF.

Right Field - Austin Kearns

Kearns is an all-around great player (both hitting and fielding) who frustratingly cannot stay healthy, either due to bad luck, the fragileness of his body, or both. For the Reds to overcome their inevitable pitching disaster, they need Kearns, among others, to stay healthy and to be productive.

Staring at this lineup: Freel, Dunn, Pena, Griffey, Kearns, Lopez, Encarnacion, and LaRue/Valentin—I see perhaps yet again the best offense in the NL. Hatteberg and Womack receiving ample amount of playing time would hurt the runs scored total, and, unfortunately, with this powerful lineup includes their collective fielding ineptitude.

Kearns, however, is pretty damn good out there in RF.

The Bench - Ryan Freel, Rich Aurilia, Scott Hatteberg, and Chris Denorfia

Assuming the Reds carry 12 pitchers and the nine guys listed above (two catchers, one at each of the other positions), that leaves four remaining bench spots.

Freel will most likely remain as the super utility player, able to play all but catcher (he probably won't appear at 1B either nor SS if Lopez remains healthy and productive). This is important considering the fragileness of Griffey and Kearns as well as the current black hole at second base.

Aurilia can also play anywhere in the IF, and should probably be starting at second base. Denorfia is battling with Tuffy Rhodes (check out this article on the recent Nippon League star), Timo Perez, Quinton McCracken, and others for the fourth outfield spot.

Hatteberg was signed to a one-year contract for $700,000 and isn't going anywhere. He'll probably serve as a PH and start at 1B if and when Dunn plays in the OF. I wouldn't be surprised to see him in the lineup when a DH is needed (Griffey should probably DH in the inter-league games in AL parks).

The Rotation

3rd starter - Aaron Harang - has right shoulder inflammation
4th starter - Brandon Claussen - surprisingly healthy
3rd starter - Eric Milton - currently battling right calf strain
4th starter - Dave Williams - did not play last September due to sore shoulder
5th starter - Paul Wilson - rehabilitating from shoulder surgery

Oh yeah, last season might actually have been the peak in pitching for this current group. I can easily see this year's pitching staff competing with 2004's as one of the worst of all time, especially if injuries require the Reds to use pitchers from their own depleted farm system.

What could happen is if the Reds are desperately in need of pitching, they could trade one of Kearns, Dunn, or Pena.

I realize the available free agent starting pitching was lacking in quality this past off-season, but why didn't the Reds put forth more of an effort to sign at least one of them? How about Jeff Weaver, who finally signed with the Angels late in the off-season? Or Kevin Millwood, Jarrod Washburn, or Esteban Loaiza?

Harang and Claussen are acceptable for the middle of the rotation, and Williams is perfectly average (although with limited PT the last few years). And I suppose the Reds feel obligated to keep Milton in the rotation, but given Wilson is not guaranteed to have fully recovered from his shoulder surgery by the start of the season, the Reds should have signed another pitcher.

The Relief

Kent Mercker, David Weathers, Chris Hammond, and Rick White are most likely starting the season in the bullpen, simply because they're veterans. Ryan Wagner should be there as well.

That leaves Jason Standridge, Mike Burns, Todd Coffey, Matt Belisle, and Brian Shackelford battling for the remaining spots. So I've read.

Offseason-signed Grant Balfour could also compete for a bullpen spot when he returns from surgery on his rotator cuff and labrum, but he's probably not going to be able to contribute until next season given the normal recovery time from such a surgery (when did I become a medical doctor?).

The Prospects

Sickels List: Homer Bailey, Travis Wood, Jay Bruce, B.J. Szymanski, Phil Dumatrait, Chris Denorfia, Tyler Pelland, Joey Votto, Justin Germano, and Zach Ward are his top ten, with not one higher than a B+ rating.

Bailey, of course, is being touted as the future ace for the Reds, which most likely means years of hardship and injury for the young man. The 2005 draft produced Wood and Bruce from the first two rounds, and these two are a few years away from joining the parent club. Bruce and Bailey were the only Reds in Baseball America's 2006 Top 100 Prospects list.

Various other sources maintain the Reds organization as one of the worst farm systems in baseball. As a team in a small market, the farm system is one area where the Reds need to excel if they want to compete. They simply don't have the means or the attractiveness to sign top free agents.

Therefore, improving the farm should be GM Krivsky's number one priority, even above trying to compete in 2006 or 2007. This doesn't involve simply drafting more intelligently, but revamping the entire Minor League system, because their current strategy, training, instruction, etc. clearly are not working.

Don't worry, Wayne, I can wait, and I hope Castellini can too.

The Outlook

SG over at the Replacement Level Yankees Weblog ran 100 trials of the 2006 season using the Diamond Mind Baseball simulator and the first build of the 2006 ZiPS. The Reds averaged 69 wins and a last place finish in the NL Central and only made the post-season one time out of the 100. Also on average, they allowed the most runs of any team in MLB.

I'll be shocked if the real-life 2006 season outcome is any better.

The Conclusion (with apologies to Pulp and their incredible song, Common People)

She came from the Bronx with a thirst for baseball,
she studied clippings at the famous Hall,
that's where I ...
caught her eye.
She told me that her team was loaded,
I said, "In that case I'll have your crappy second baseman."
She said, "Fine."
and then in thirty seconds time she said,

"I want to root like regular fans,
I want to do whatever regular fans do,
I want to cheer with regular fans,
I want to cheer with regular fans,
like you."

Well what else could I do -
I said, "I'll ... I'll see what I can do."
I took her to the Great American Ballpark,
I don't know why but I had to start it somewhere,
so it started ... there.
I said, "Pretend your team has no money."
she just laughed and said,
"Oh you're so funny."
I said, "Yeah?
Well I can't see anyone else smiling in here.
Are you sure ... you want to root like regular fans,
you want to see whatever regular fans see,
you want to cheer with regular fans,
you want to cheer with regular fans like me."
But she didn't understand,
and she just smiled and held my hand.

Buy a seat near the fair pole
watch your team dig out of a hole.
Drink some beer and watch them suck,
exclaim they never have any luck.
But still you'll never get it right,
cause when you're sitting there all night,
watching fielders boot the ball,
if you root for the Yanks you could stop it all, yeah.

You'll never live like regular fans,
you'll never do whatever regular fans do,
you'll never curse like regular fans,
you'll never watch your team slide out of view,
and have a true reason to scream and to boo,
because there's nothing else to do.

Sing along with the regular fans,
sing along and it might just get you through,
laugh along with the regular fans,
laugh along even though they're laughing at you,
and the stupid things that you do.
Because you think that this team is cool.

Like a dog lying in a corner,
they will bite you and never warn you.
Look out ...
they'll tear your insides out.
'Cause everybody hates a winner,
especially one ... who thinks
it's all such a laugh
yeah ... and the nacho cheese stain
will come out in the bath.
You will never understand
how it feels to root for your team
with no meaning or control
and with nowhere left to go.
You are amazed that they exist,
and they burn so bright
whilst you can only wonder why.

Buy a seat near the fair pole
watch your team dig out of a hole.
Drink some beer and watch them suck,
exclaim they never have any luck.
But still you'll never get it right,
cause when you're sitting there all night,
watching ... fielders boot the ball,
if you root for the Yanks you could stop it all, yeah.

You'll never live like regular fans,
you'll never do whatever regular fans do,
you'll never curse like regular fans,
you'll never watch your team slide out of view,
and have a true reason to scream and to boo,
because there's nothing else to do.

I want to root with regular fans like you.....
I want to root with regular fans like you.....
I want to root with regular fans like you.....
I want to root with regular fans like you.....

2006 ZiPS Projections - Cincinnati Reds

Name               P     G   AB    R    H  2B  3B  HR  RBI   BB    K  SB  CS   AVG   OBP   SLG 
Dunn*              1b  157  548  105  139  31   1  45  110  114  174   5   2  .254  .388  .560 
Griffey*           cf  108  403   65  113  24   0  28   78   48   80   0   1  .280  .359  .548 
Kearns             rf  122  431   70  111  29   2  21   72   55  118   2   1  .258  .349  .480 
Pena               cf  107  335   47   87  14   0  26   66   23  114   3   2  .260  .310  .534 
Valentin#          c    74  204   27   53  10   0  10   34   23   36   0   0  .260  .332  .456 
Lopez#             ss  146  556   87  152  30   4  19   75   55  109  10   7  .273  .338  .444 
Encarnacion        3b  140  485   67  127  31   0  20   73   44  108  11   5  .262  .327  .449 
LaRue              c   113  374   42   92  25   1  14   54   34  105   1   1  .246  .336  .430 
Freel              2b  116  415   65  112  20   4   4   33   55   65  32  11  .270  .364  .366 
Cruz*              lf   96  155   21   38  10   0   5   23   18   44   0   0  .245  .330  .406 
Abad*              1b  123  415   55  107  25   1  11   58   42   64   2   3  .258  .330  .402 
Aurilia            ss  120  432   54  113  23   1  11   55   35   72   1   1  .262  .317  .396 
Denorfia           cf  148  512   76  131  21   4  13   57   53  110   7   6  .256  .327  .389 
Smitherman         lf  134  456   52  109  31   1  12   55   45  117   5   2  .239  .313  .390 
Hatteberg*         1b  139  491   57  121  22   0  11   59   60   49   0   1  .246  .332  .358 
Snyder             3b  130  491   66  114  28   1  21   74   33  119   1   1  .232  .287  .422 
Gutierrez          1b  117  433   50  105  25   2  12   54   24   63   0   0  .242  .297  .393 
Menechino          2b   81  235   32   53  10   1   5   25   35   52   0   2  .226  .336  .340 
Votto*             1b  131  451   59  106  18   1  13   56   46  128   6   3  .235  .308  .366 
Olmedo#            2b  106  317   38   84  12   2   3   26   23   58   4   3  .265  .314  .344 
Moran              cf  104  395   60  106  11   4   1   28   17   81  27  12  .268  .311  .324 
Stratton           lf   87  290   38   59  11   1  17   46   18  139   3   2  .203  .256  .424 
Bergolla           2b  118  442   64  113  20   2   3   35   21   59  21  10  .256  .293  .330 
Holbert            2b  106  328   43   80  16   2   4   29   20   62  16  14  .244  .299  .341 
McCracken#         rf  113  215   23   51   8   2   1   15   20   30   4   3  .237  .300  .307 
Perez*             cf  104  282   28   69  14   0   3   29   17   27   3   4  .245  .288  .326 
Womack*            2b  127  436   55  107  14   2   2   34   24   55  19   6  .245  .288  .300 
Wise*              cf  105  341   37   76  11   4   7   37   18   71  11   5  .223  .268  .340 
Wathan#            ss  102  338   40   79  16   2   4   32   20   63  11   7  .234  .278  .328 
Machado#           ss  111  391   62   71  14   3   4   30   72  107  12   7  .182  .313  .263 
Sardinha           c    87  298   29   64  13   0   7   30   16   80   1   0  .215  .262  .329 
Perez              c   101  340   33   73   9   0   4   27   14   82   4   1  .215  .256  .276 

Name                 W   L    ERA   G  GS     INN    H   ER  HR   BB    K 
Coffey               3   3   4.13  59   0    72.0   80   33   6   13   47 
Harang              12   9   4.21  29  29   184.0  190   86  21   48  140 
Phelps*              2   1   4.41  30   5    49.0   49   24   5   20   34 
Hammond*             3   3   4.42  53   0    57.0   60   28   7   14   36 
Weathers             5   6   4.56  72   1    81.0   80   41   9   34   63 
Burns                3   4   4.71  54   0    63.0   64   33  10   18   50 
Belisle              7   8   4.73  40  19   135.0  145   71  16   47   92 
Mercker*             2   2   4.74  74   0    57.0   55   30   7   26   44 
Kelly                7   8   4.77  23  23   134.0  145   71  14   49   84 
Wagner               2   3   4.81  52   0    58.0   62   31   5   25   48 
Claussen*            9  12   4.85  28  28   156.0  161   84  21   61  123 
Balfour              2   2   4.89  31   0    35.0   30   19   6   19   38 
Kozlowski*           5   7   4.91  24  24   132.0  147   72  16   44   83 
Shackelford*         4   4   4.94  60   0    62.0   62   34   6   32   44 
White                3   6   4.96  65   0    78.0   86   43   9   29   44 
Ramirez              7   9   5.01  28  24   151.0  181   84  24   29   83 
Simpson              3   4   5.01  57   0    70.0   63   39   8   43   72 
Germano              8  11   5.02  29  28   165.0  185   92  29   40  124 
Standridge           6   7   5.12  36  16   116.0  128   66  13   52   70 
Hall                 6   8   5.16  27  27   157.0  174   90  19   63  106 
Nelson               4   6   5.20  32  10    90.0   96   52  15   33   70 
Gosling*             5   9   5.22  30  24   138.0  149   80  19   57   89 
Hudson               7  12   5.22  24  22   119.0  116   69  19   61   96 
Wilson               6   9   5.22  25  25   150.0  171   87  22   51   89 
Bong*                6   9   5.34  28  16    91.0   97   54  16   37   67 
Robbins              4   5   5.40  45   1    65.0   71   39   7   34   38 
Nannini              6   9   5.44  31  20   134.0  144   81  27   47   88 
Williams*            6  11   5.50  26  25   131.0  138   80  21   61   96 
Milton*              7  14   5.55  33  33   188.0  213  116  38   59  132 
Journell             2   5   5.77  42   3    64.0   65   41   8   43   58 

Disclaimer:  ZiPS projections are computer-based projections of performance.  
Performances have not been allocated to predicted playing time in the majors - 
many of the players listed above are unlikely to play in the majors at all in 2006.  
ZiPS is projecting equivalent production - a .240 ZiPS projection may end up 
being .280 in AAA or .300 in AA, for example.  Whether or not a player will play 
is one of many non-statistical factors one has to take into account when predicting 
the future.