2006 Cleveland Indians

As the saying goes, a man who has one foot on a block of ice and one foot on fire is, on average, comfortable. Similarly, being a fan of the 2005 Indians was, on average, comfortable.

For about two months, the Tribe couldn't hit, couldn't pitch, and couldn't field. On the morning of May 11, Cleveland was 13-19 and already 10.5 games back of the streaking White Sox. As they woke up on June 5, the Indians were 25-29 and closer to the 17-38 Royals than they were to first place.

This was a team that was going nowhere in a hurry. It was going so poorly that after losing their fourth consecutive game, all against divisional opponents, the Tribe fired hitting coach Eddie Murray on June 4. It seemed like an inconsequential move at the time, but things began to click almost immediately under new hitting guru Derek Shelton. The Indians won 12 out of their next 13 games including an amazing 11-1 record in interleague play.

After the Murray firing, the Indians went 68-40 the rest of the way and woke up on the morning of September 25 in second place, a game and a half behind the White Sox. Even better for the Tribe, four of the seven remaining games were against the Royals and Devil Rays. The other three were a head-to-head season-ending showdown against the Southsiders.

Five of those seven games were one-run losses, leaving Cleveland fans frustrated, angry, and mourning the end of what would have been an historic charge to the postseason.

It also left a sense of optimism among Indians fans that 2006 would be the year that postseason baseball would finally return to the North Coast. But first, there were moves to be made.

Offseason Transactions of Note: Lost Kevin Millwood, Bobby Howry, and Scott Elarton via free agency. Signed free agent pitchers Paul Byrd, Jason Johnson, Danny Graves, Steve Karsay, and Felix Heredia. Signed free agent outfielder Todd Hollandsworth. Signed free agent first baseman Eduardo Perez. Traded pitcher Arthur Rhodes to Philadelphia for outfielder Jason Michaels. Traded outfielder Coco Crisp, catcher Josh Bard, and pitcher David Riske to Boston for third baseman Andy Marte, pitcher Guillermo Mota, catcher Kelly Shoppach, cash, and either more cash or a PTBNL.

Catchers: Before Victor Martinez, it had been more than 40 years since the Indians organization had a catcher that hit well with any kind of consistency. The dark days of Andy Allanson and Fred Kendall are long-forgotten now, though. In Martinez, Cleveland has the best catcher in baseball. A line-drive machine with power, patience, and control of the strike zone, Martinez is entering his Age 27 season and still improving. Uncle Vic has two weaknesses that should be noted, though. He absolutely cannot throw out baserunners attempting to steal ( 23.2% CS rate in '05), and he's caught 274 games over the last two seasons. The Indians say they'll address the overuse issue by using Martinez at first base and DH occasionally in 2006. Another factor in reducing Martinez's workload is the addition of Kelly Shoppach. The rookie doesn't appear to be headed for stardom, but looks like he'll be a useful backup who's able to pop the occasional longball.

First Basemen: Oh, man, there's a lot of them. Travis Hafner has played two full seasons in the major leagues, and has led the American League in OPS+ both years. An elbow injury prevented the man known simply as Pronk from playing more than 7 innings in the field in '05, but that wasn't much of a loss. Hafner's a poor defensive first baseman, and watching him attempt to play defense makes me wonder what it looked like to see him play third base as he came up through the Rangers organization. Finally healthy after taking a Mark Buehrle fastball to the face in midseason '05, Hafner should continue to dominate AL pitching in 2006. The Indians like to talk about what a good defensive first baseman Ben Broussard is, but the fact is that he botches an easy play every couple of weeks. Nobody's talking about what a good offensive player Beat Boxin' Benny is, and that's mostly because he isn't a good offensive player. Broussard's complete inability to hit left handed pitching means he's of limited use. Of course, good organizations don't worry about what their players can't do, they worry about what they can do. The one thing Broussard can do fairly well is hit right handed pitching (.263/.335/.469 career vs RHP). That makes him a natural platoon partner for newly-signed Eduardo Perez, who has always crushed lefties (.263/.368/.501 career vs LHP). If Eric Wedge sticks to a strict platoon, first base could be a surprisingly strong position for the Indians in 2006.

Second Basemen: Ronnie Belliard is no star, but has hit .283 with 84 doubles in two seasons in Cleveland. Defensively, Belliard is a ton of fun to watch. He positions himself in the grass in short right field, dramatically improving his lateral range, especially to his left. This makes for some amazing defensive plays, but also means he misses some balls that would be routine for many other second basemen. This season, Belliard is likely to do the same things he usually does: Hit about .275, pop a bunch of doubles, play average-ish defense, and fade in the second half. Ramon Vazquez is the backup at second and short. He's a standard-issue backup middle infielder. Vazquez can hit a bit, but not enough that you'd want to give him more than 200 plate appearances at the very most. He can field, but not enough that it's worth taking the offensive hit to get him into the lineup regularly. Basically, if Vazquez plays a lot, that's bad. If you don't see much of him, that's good.

Third Basemen: Aaron Boone has pictures of someone high in the Indians organization. That's the only possible explanation for the contract extension that all but guarantees him a regular job this season. Boone's the sixth highest paid Indian, due $3.75 million this year after a 2005 season that saw him put up a .243/.299/.378 line and set a new record for "player who made me use the most four-letter words". An optimist would say Boone hit .276 after the all-star break. A pessimist would say he blows. Oh, and that even when he was "good", he still put up a .276/.336/.394 line and only managed 15 extra-base hits in 69 games.

Shortstop: I can't imagine Jhonny Peralta's going to do that again. Peralta completely annihilated even the most optimistic projections last year, clobbering opposing pitchers to the tune of a .292/.366/.520 line, 63 extra-base hits, and a 139 OPS+ at age 23. His season was so amazing, there was even a bit of talk late in the season of Jhonny as an MVP candidate. The BBWAA must have been watching a different sport than I was watching, because his name appeared on exactly zero ballots. Bob Wickman even got votes, for crying out loud. Anyway, despite what ZiPS says, I'd be stunned if Peralta has another season like that. I expect something closer to .280/.350/.475, which is still pretty terrific for a 24-year-old shortstop. At this point, he looks like the sort of player you build a franchise around.

Outfield: Speaking of players you build a franchise around, Grady Sizemore is back for his second full season in the big leagues. At age 22 last season, Sizemore was arguably the best center fielder in the American League, and one of the three or four best in the game. King Grady wasn't even supposed to make the team, but wound up hitting .289/.348/.484 with 71 extra-base hits, 111 runs, and 22 stolen bases. Add an above-average glove and you have yourself the makings of a superstar. Grady's two weaknesses at this point in his career are a shaky K/BB ratio of 2.54-1 and a weak throwing arm. His minor league numbers lead me to expect improvement in his strike zone command. Jason Michaels is the new guy in left and perhaps the biggest X factor in the lineup heading into the season. Michaels has a career .291/.380/.442 line, but at age 30 has never had an everyday job in the major leagues. Nearly 20 percent of his career at-bats have come as a pinch hitter, which suggests Michaels may be a substantially better hitter than his career line indicates. On the other hand, he only has 941 career plate appearances, so there still could be a ton of noise in his career averages. Casey Blake returns as the everyday right fielder and backup third baseman. Blake was roundly criticized last season for having an awful season, but his OPS+ of 101 was almost exactly the same as his career OPS+, 103. Blake did deserve his share of criticism, though, for completely failing to show up with runners in scoring position. Casey hit .171/.243/.248 with runners in scoring position, with (count 'em!) five extra-base hits in 129 at-bats. Blake played right field like a guy who'd never played right field before, turning in some nice catches along with the occasional horrific effort. He's got a terrific arm. Expect Blake to get a bit better defensively, a bit better offensively, and continue to be a liability as an everyday outfielder. The fight between Todd Hollandsworth and Jason Dubois for the fourth outfielder job went down to the wire, with Hollandsworth emerging victorious since he can play center field and Dubois can barely pass as a left fielder. I wouldn't expect either to contribute a ton offensively. Hollandsworth is a much safer bet to OPS above .700, but Dubois has a much higher upside.

Starting Pitchers: American League ERA champ Kevin Millwood is gone, leaving C.C. Sabathia once again as the nominal ace of the Tribe rotation. Sabathia's become fairly predictable at this point: an ERA of around 4, a couple missed starts due to assorted arm discomfort, and that crazy way he wears his hat. Sabathia's strikeout rate rose last season and his walk and home run rates fell. All are positive indicators for '06. Unfortunately, Eric Wedge will likely continue to run Sabathia to the mound for a bunch of 110+ pitch starts, wondering why the big fella alternates good starts and bad starts. If he stays healthy and gains just a little command of his breaking stuff, Sabathia could have a big year. Of course, you could have said the same thing four years ago. Jake Westbrook will start the season as the number two starter, though the organization likely sees him behind Cliff Lee on the depth chart. Jake's generally either unhittable or awful, and it normally takes about ten pitches to be able to tell which Westbrook is on the mound. In '05, he had a mechanical flaw in which his pitching elbow would occasionally come forward too early and lead to a shot put-type delivery. On those nights, the results were often ugly. When the elbow stayed back and he was able to throw "downhill", Jake was fantastic. It's tough to make any kind of guess as to how Westbrook will fare this season. It's a start-to-start thing at this point. Just watch the elbow. Cliff Lee starts the season in the number three slot after an 18-win season in 2005. Lee's strikeout rate fell fairly dramatically in 2005, but so did his walk and home run rates. His performance has fluctuated wildly from season to season, but it seems reasonable to expect nothing worse than 200 league-average innings this year from Lee. Paul Byrd is finally back in the organization that drafted him back in 1991. He's completely unspectacular to watch, but Byrd hasn't had an ERA above 4.00 in five years. If he can avoid the arm issues that have popped up from time to time throughout his career, Byrd has a chance to be the best starting pitcher on the team. That may indeed say more about the top three guys than it says about Byrd, but it's always nice to have four starting pitchers you can rely on. And then there's Jason Johnson. Johnson gives up a bunch of hits, doesn't strike out much of anyone, and threw 17 (!) wild pitches last year. That said, he's been clearly a better pitcher over the past several years than the Tribe's last fifth starter, Scott Elarton. If Johnson can hold off Fausto Carmona and Jeremy Sowers all season and get through the year with an ERA under 5, it'll be a mild upset.

In a repeat of last season, Sabathia will miss 3-to-5 weeks of play with a strained oblique. Jason Davis was called up until the Indians need a 5th starter, at which time the plan will be to call up Carmona. Relief Pitchers: Much to the detriment of my gastrointestinal health, Bob Wickman is back as the closer. Wick was the team's lone All Star last season and saved 45 games, but scared the bejeezus out of Indians fans every time he came into the game. Gone are Bobby Howry and David Riske, but there's plenty of right handed relief depth. If Wickman fails, Guillermo Mota will likely get the first crack at the closer job. Mota had a rough season in 2005, but struck out nearly a batter an inning and allowed just 5 home runs in 67 innings. He should rebound a bit in 2006. Fernando Cabrera might just be the best pitcher on the team. F-Cab gets his fastball up there in the mid-to-high 90s, which makes his power slider that much nastier. A converted starter, Cabrera's able to go two innings at a time if necessary. To illustrate just how much relief depth the Indians have, consider this: Either Cabrera or Rafael Betancourt is the fourth right-hander out of the bullpen. Betancourt's fastball is straight as a string, but is tough to catch up to. Perhaps my favorite Indian, sidearmer Matt Miller appears to be healthy and ready to continue baffling hitters with pitches that look more like frisbees than baseballs. Miller has some trouble with left handed hitters, but has been so dominant against righties that he's got a career ERA+ of 168. He's allowed just 2 home runs in 89.1 career innings, and averaged nearly a strikeout an inning despite a fastball that just isn't all that fast. Much has been made of Danny Graves making the team, but as the sixth right handed reliever, he likely won't get much of a chance to do any damage. Graves will likely pitch in mop-up situations, which is a good thing because he's not really any good. The Vietnam native has reportedly picked up 5-6 miles an hour on his fastball this spring and gotten the sinker working again, but I'll need to see it in a regular season game before I believe it. There is one left hander out of the bullpen. Scott Sauerbeck starts the year as the lone lefty reliever, but Felix Heredia will be waiting in Buffalo if he's needed.

Manager: Eric Wedge has done an admirable job with this team, and will likely continue to do so as long as he doesn't grow that silly mustache back. Wedge insists on his players and coaches keeping an even keel at all times - never getting too high or too low emotionally. It was an approach that served the team well in 2005. Tactically, Wedge is generally pretty solid, but has a tendency to run his team out of innings. He also has a habit of staying with his starting pitchers a bit too long (especially Sabathia, but also Elarton in '05) that's a bit scary given Sabathia's running series of minor arm injuries and Byrd's running series of major arm injuries.

Others We May See: Ryan Garko is a catcher/first baseman who isn't much of a fielder, but can rake. If Broussard falters or is injured, he'll get the first crack at the job. The organization sees his long-term future at first base. Third baseman Andy Marte has been the top prospect in three different organizations over the past six months. Atlanta and Boston both traded him away, but every indication is that Marte has a chance to be a star. He'll begin the season in Buffalo, but is ready to take over if Boone doesn't play well. Franklin Gutierrez is a one-time top prospect who came over in the Milton Bradley deal with Los Angeles a couple years ago. He's got light-tower power and a good glove, but terrible strike zone control and mediocre minor league numbers. If things come together for him, he could be the long-term answer in right field. Unfortunately, he's just as likely to be remembered as one of the failed prospects that came over in the Bradley trade. Todd Donovan can't really play, but has blazing speed and a good glove in center. He'll likely be a September callup. Fausto Carmona and Jeremy Sowers are the top two starting pitcher prospects in the system. Both will start the season in Buffalo, but both should be ready to contribute if injuries or ineffectiveness strike the rotation. Steve Karsay was a finalist for the job that went to Graves. He'll start the season in Buffalo. Jason Davis and Andrew Brown also attempted unsuccessfully to win that bullpen job. Davis has had some success in the big leagues, but doesn't have much in the way of offspeed or breaking pitches. Brown's sort of a poor man's Fernando Cabrera. He can get the ball up to the plate in a hurry, but doesn't quite have the command or breaking stuff that Cabrera has. Jason Stanford is a lefty soft tosser who's had some major league success in limited action ( 3.10 ERA in 61 IP). He's coming off Tommy John surgery. In many other organizations, Kaz Tadano would be getting big league innings. With the Indians, he's the tenth or eleventh best right-handed reliever in the organization.

Outlook: While they aren't a lock for the postseason, the Indians are in the second tier of teams in the American League: Teams that will be playing in October if they stay healthy, things break their way a bit, and nothing crazy happens. The offense is very good, the starting pitching is average, and I expect the relief pitching to be good. You can go ahead and pencil the Indians in for around 90 wins. It could be 95, it could be 85. Whether Cleveland makes the playoffs is likely to depend at least as much on the White Sox and Twins as it will on the Indians.

2006 ZiPS Projections - Cleveland Indians

Name               P     G   AB    R    H  2B  3B  HR  RBI   BB    K  SB  CS   AVG   OBP   SLG 
Hafner*            1b  136  473   85  143  38   1  28   97   76  115   1   1  .302  .409  .564 
Martinez#          c   146  535   74  160  35   0  20   87   67   69   0   1  .299  .380  .477 
Peralta            ss  148  552   96  164  35   3  22   86   63  133   3   4  .297  .370  .491 
Sizemore*          cf  157  624  108  179  32  11  21   84   55  128  25   9  .287  .351  .474 
DuBois             lf  114  364   52   96  24   1  18   63   36  105   1   2  .264  .342  .484 
Perez              1b   82  174   27   43   8   0  10   31   25   36   1   1  .247  .348  .466 
Michaels           cf  107  275   39   77  14   1   6   31   44   57   2   3  .280  .383  .404 
Broussard*         1b  137  443   56  116  28   4  18   68   42   91   3   2  .262  .333  .465 
Aubrey*            1b   77  269   33   71  12   1   9   40   25   37   2   1  .264  .351  .416 
Marte              3b  122  416   59  100  24   2  19   64   62   94   0   1  .240  .339  .445 
Belliard           2b  143  548   69  151  41   1  13   71   51   79   3   3  .276  .337  .425 
Inglett*           2b   91  315   47   89  20   4   1   27   26   44   6   3  .283  .348  .381 
Blake              rf  151  561   78  142  36   1  22   79   55  120   4   9  .253  .328  .439 
Kouzmanoff         3b  106  373   51  100  21   2  10   48   25   70   2   2  .268  .325  .416 
Garko              1b  118  453   63  115  22   1  14   60   34   83   2   2  .254  .329  .400 
Hollandsworth*     lf   94  235   27   62  16   2   5   29   19   46   3   4  .264  .319  .413 
Merloni            3b   67  163   20   44   9   1   2   20   16   36   1   3  .270  .341  .374 
Shoppach           c   110  390   51   86  22   0  19   49   40  127   0   0  .221  .301  .423 
Vazquez*           ss   96  311   41   79  17   2   3   29   40   57   4   2  .254  .338  .350 
Snyder*            cf  128  467   72  111  23   3  14   57   39  148  10   5  .238  .309  .390 
Boone              3b  149  541   66  131  23   1  17   70   41   95  12   3  .242  .304  .383 
Gautreau*          3b  119  423   56   97  26   1  15   54   41  106   1   3  .229  .302  .402 
Flores             ss  107  316   47   82  10   2   3   30   37   40   3   4  .259  .338  .332 
Cooper*            lf  133  467   61  106  20   3  16   57   46  133   3   4  .227  .305  .385 
Francisco          rf  112  410   52   99  19   3   9   45   31   77  13   9  .241  .299  .368 
Gutierrez          cf  111  395   62   92  24   2   7   38   26   97  10   5  .233  .293  .357 
Laker              c    79  278   34   55  15   0   7   30   25   77   0   0  .198  .267  .327 
Pinckney           ss  101  354   41   86  15   1   2   28   18   38   5   4  .243  .281  .308 
Goleski            rf  129  466   56   93  19   1  14   53   32  127   4   4  .200  .259  .335 
Wallace            c   100  319   34   58  16   0   6   28   34  108   2   2  .182  .283  .288 
Ochoa#             ss  112  366   39   83  11   4   1   23   21   80  10   8  .227  .287  .287 
Diaz               c    75  210   17   44   9   1   1   18    9   19   1   0  .210  .257  .276 

Name                 W   L    ERA   G  GS     INN    H   ER  HR   BB    K 
Miller               4   1   2.64  55   0    58.0   43   17   1   23   60 
Betancourt           6   2   3.21  62   0    73.0   61   26   6   22   81 
Cabrera              6   3   3.53  46   0    79.0   62   31   7   33   94 
Sabathia*           14   9   3.79  31  31   190.0  175   80  17   63  157 
Mota                 6   4   3.80  69   0    83.0   72   35   6   32   70 
Sowers*             11   7   3.89  27  27   155.0  159   67  17   30  121 
Byrd                13   8   3.90  28  28   180.0  188   78  20   27   91 
Westbrook           15  11   4.02  34  31   195.0  197   87  16   59  109 
Miller               6   5   4.18  21  21   114.0  114   53  11   37   83 
Lee*                12  10   4.30  31  31   178.0  172   85  22   63  144 
Howard               5   5   4.33  54   2    79.0   73   38  11   31   86 
Carmona             11  10   4.39  28  26   166.0  181   81  19   39   95 
Wickman              2   2   4.41  53   0    49.0   50   24   6   17   35 
Stanford*            6   5   4.54  26  20   127.0  132   64  19   35   91 
Johnson             10  11   4.59  33  33   202.0  215  103  22   62  107 
Davis                8   9   4.65  30  24   153.0  163   79  17   53  103 
Brown                4   5   4.65  37  13    89.0   81   46  13   43   92 
Young                7   8   4.86  24  22   124.0  131   67  19   41   97 
Dittler              8  10   4.91  26  25   154.0  169   84  15   62   86 
Pesco                9  11   4.93  26  26   148.0  169   81  20   42   84 
Denham               9  10   4.93  25  25   146.0  158   80  18   54   96 
Mujica               2   3   4.98  52   0    65.0   72   36  14   12   45 
Sauerbeck*           1   2   5.11  66   0    44.0   41   25   5   28   40 
Graves               2   3   5.14  54   0    56.0   64   32   9   17   28 
Laffey*              6   9   5.19  26  24   137.0  154   79  11   64   65 
Slocum               6   9   5.21  23  21   126.0  140   73  18   45   74 
Guthrie              8  12   5.35  29  25   148.0  163   88  22   62   92 
Bell                 6  10   5.43  31  21   136.0  154   82  23   47   75 
Smith                4   8   6.13  26  21   119.0  134   81  18   71   79 

Disclaimer:  ZiPS projections are computer-based projections of performance.  
Performances have not been allocated to predicted playing time in the majors - 
many of the players listed above are unlikely to play in the majors at all in 2006.  
ZiPS is projecting equivalent production - a .240 ZiPS projection may end up 
being .280 in AAA or .300 in AA, for example.  Whether or not a player will play 
is one of many non-statistical factors one has to take into account when predicting 
the future.