2006 Minnesota Twins

This is the way the world ends This is the way the world ends This is the way the world ends Not with a bang but a whimper – T.S. Eliot

Sadly, if T.S. Eliot had merely replaced the word “world” with “inning”, he would have captured the 2005 Minnesota Twins. The 2005 Twins finished last in the American League in runs scored with a measly 688 total. They tied the Mariners for the lowest slugging percentage in the entire league. In addition to being punch less, the Twins compounded their problems by grounding into double plays more often than a one-legged Jim Rice.

Don’t believe me? The Twins led the Majors by grounding into 156 twin-killings. Don’t believe me? The Twins hit into at least one double play in eighteen straight games. No American League team has had a longer streak since before the expansion era. Don’t believe me? On September 18, the Twins managed to hit into 4-3-2 and 2-5-3 double plays in consecutive innings.

Still, don’t believe me?! Terry Tiffee, a reserve corner infielder who received 150 at bats, grounded into a whopping ten double plays. Scott Hatteberg hit into a double play in 4.7% of his at bats which was the highest percentage of any American League player with at least 400 plate appearances. Terry Tiffee’s rate, of course, was 6.7% of the time. Not to be outdone, fellow bench player Mike Redmond grounded into double plays 6.1% of the time. In fact, Matthew LeCroy, the slowest player in the entire Major Leagues, had just the eighth-highest rate on the entire team!

The biggest reason the Twins grounded into so many double plays last year was because the roster was stocked with so many extreme ground ball hitters. The American League on the whole hit 1.26 groundballs for every fly ball. Justin Morneau, Luis Rodriguez, and Matt LeCroy were the only three players who hit fewer groundballs than average.

Unfortunately, poorly placed groundballs will forever be the final impression of the 2005 Minnesota Twins. Actually, the 2005 Twins will also be remembered for having such a talented, stingy and neglected pitching staff. The Twins coasted through the season receiving just twenty-six games total from pitchers who were not on the Opening Day roster. The reason the team faced so little turnover was because, of the eleven men who went north, only Joe Mays had an ERA higher than the league average.

Using the Pythagorean Theorem to demonstrate just how great the pitching staff (and how terrible the offense) was, we can replace the two groups with league average performance. The Twins, with their wretched offense and league average pitching, would have been expected to finish the season with a record of 72-90. However, with the fantastic pitching staff and merely a league average offense, the expected record jumps to 93-69.

So basically, in short, the 2005 Twins offense was pitiful.

Catchers – Joe Mauer and Mike Redmond

Somehow, in just twelve months, Joe Mauer seemed to completely erase any doubts about the durability of his knee. His first complete season was a success as he finished as the best hitter in a putrid lineup. Mauer finished with an 889 OPS against right-handed pitching and excellent line drive power towards the left-center gap. He struggled against southpaws striking out just six fewer times than against righties, but in 205 fewer at bats and slugging just .246. Plus, he faded down the stretch with just a 581 OPS in September and October. Defensively, he does a good job of blocking the plate, and has a powerful and accurate throwing arm helping to virtually nullify the opposition’s running game.

If Mauer can bring up his totals against lefties and can tack on a few more extra base hits overall, he will make begin a running battle with Victor Martinez for the title of Best Catcher in the American League.

Mike Redmond was signed to a two-year deal last year as insurance in case Mauer’s knee still flared up. He did a solid job last year as the backup getting on base at a decent rate. Plus, he had a knack for playing in games featuring at least one collision at home plate. After fighting through a heel spur and slightly torn plantar fascia in his right food for nearly the whole season, Redmond succumbed to the pain and missed the final couple of weeks.

While he will not be appearing on the roster unless Mauer or Redmond suffer an injury, Chris Heintz gets a special mention for possessing the worst MLB picture in history

First Base – Justin Morneau

It was a very disappointing 2005 season for Justin Morneau at the plate. Plus, he compounded his struggles by battling pleurisy, a lung infection, pneumonia, the loss of his confidence, a season without the NHL, his favorite fan getting engaged, a beaning to the head, Corey Koskie’s departure, appendicitis, and a cyst.

In 2006, look for Morneau to have fewer obscene conversations with both himself and the home plate umpire in the middle of at bats, fewer fights in the clubhouse with supposed team leaders, fewer 19th century diseases, fewer articles written explaining that the team was better with Doug Mientkiewicz. While Morneau lost a lot of luster as one of the former top hitting prospects in all of baseball, he is still possessing light tower power.

Second Base – Luis Castillo and Little Nicky Punto

For the first time since two members of the starting rotation begged Tom Kelly not to play Todd Walker when they were on the mound, the Twins look to have a competent player at second base. If Castillo had received a couple of extra PA’s against southpaws last season, he would have ranked first in the National League in OBP and THIRD in slugging. THIRD. As in, two spots from first. Behind only Aramis Ramirez and Derrek Lee. THIRD. 3rd. #3.

It makes one wonder why Castillo keeps up the switch-hitting charade as he “slugged” just .280 against northpaws. I would challenge anybody to find a player in MLB history with at least 100 PA’s against both righties and lefties with a slugging percentage more than 2.3 times higher from one side of the plate. Still, Castillo has had leg problems – especially in his hamstrings – in the past couple of seasons and he may prove to be a bad fit on the Metrodome turf. Only time will tell.

Little Nicky Punto hits like a left-handed Luis Castillo against all pitchers. While Castillo still manages to get on base thirty-seven percent of the time, Punto also ends about thirty-seven percent of his at bats without swinging. Unfortunately, way too many of these pitchers are right down the middle for strike three. Punto needs to learn that until he puts together a few Jeter-esque seasons, he is not going to get away with jumping up in the air, holding his arms out over the plate and acting like the pitch almost hit him.

Punto’s biggest value to the Twins comes from his ability to play in the dirt. It’s pretty funny to watch as Punto will return after one half inning with dirt on parts of his uniform that defy explanation.

Shortstop – Please, please let it be Jason Bartlett

Jason Bartlett seized the Opening Day spot last year with a solid Spring Training performance. His April was decent and certainly not hurting the team. However, he was never provided the opportunity to get in the flow of the lineup. Instead, he would start two games, then sit one… then Gardenhire would do that cycle again. It was not until the end of May when Bartlett had been demoted and Juan Castro had been handed the job, that Gardenhire started the same player at shortstop three games in a row.

Bartlett has very good range and is perfectly willing to sacrifice his body to make a play. He was pretty much the Bizarro Cristian Guzman in the field. Offensively, he has some pop but can be overmatched by power stuff especially in on his hands. He could blossom into a solid above-average player, but I expect another middling year as Ron Gardenhire seems to go out of his way to tear down Bartlett’s game.

The other two shortstop candidates are the aforementioned Little Nicky Punto and Juan Castro. Castro is reliable defensively but with less range than Bartlett. Unfortunately, Bartlett will start the season in the minors, reportedly in part because he’s “not a vocal leader.”

Third Base – Tony Batista plus Glenn Williams/Luis Rodriguez in reserve

I have virtually ignored all reports from the Twins Spring Training solely because of Batista. I reasoned that if Batista did well, I most definitely did not want to hear about it because it would insure that he gets the come north with the team. On the other hand, I also reasoned that if Batista did horribly, I most definitely did not want to read the puff pieces explaining that Spring Training is used just to work on timing and all that junk. Apparently, the latter was the case as Batista not only did not perform well, but he showed up overweight.

Glenn Williams was the feel good story of the 2005 Twins mainly because he got hurt before his single-happy hot streak was exposed as a fluke. If Williams never returns to the big leagues, he will own the highest career batting average of any player with at least forty at bats.

Luis Rodriguez was pretty much everything that the departed Luis Rivas was not. Rodriguez was willing to work the count, play solid defense, show emotion, and prove that minor league stats do foreshadow Major League performance. Rodriguez will never be much better than he showed last season, but he deserves a spot on a roster as the backup middle infielder much more than clowns like Juan Castro.

Left Field – Shannon Stewart

Ick. His range continued to deteriorate. He has a poor arm. His plate discipline vanished. He lost his doubles power. He no longer steals bases. Ick.

Center Field – Torii Hunter

Hunter picked up stealing bases in April right where he left off from the previous season. He would time the pitcher and take off ridiculously early and steal the bases without even drawing a throw. He stole eleven bases in April without being caught once. Finally, on May 3, Jake Westbrook showed all the other pitchers that the easiest way to catch Hunter was to simply hold onto the ball, wait until Hunter broke, step off the mound, and turn and lob it to second base. With his crazy jumps neutralized, Hunter stole just twelve more bases in the next three months before his injury in Fenway Park.

Defensively, Hunter has excellent range - especially tracking down fly balls into the right-center gap. His one weakness is his tendency to rush a throw back into the infield with very little effort. He will field a ball (typically a single) and pick it up right away and lob it back towards the cut-off man. A few times, most notably against the Royals, an aggressive opponent has been able to steal an extra base that way. Still, it’s a minor quibble for all the extra outs that Hunter’s range provides.

Right Field – Michael Cuddyer, LEW! Ford, and Jason Kubel

The Twins have an interesting conundrum out in right field. On the one hand, they keep saying that the job belongs to Michael Cuddyer and that the reason he has never lived up to his potential was because they have juggled him all over the field defensively. By allowing him to concentrate on just one position, they reason, Cuddyer will have the breakout season many have been expecting.

Of course, this logic overlooks the fact that last year Cuddyer was handed third base and he promptly bobbled it twice, double-pumped it, and then bounced it in the dirt past the first baseman. His struggles aside, Cuddyer should be back at the hot corner where his bat is much more valuable and his defense is not as bad is many think. Like Jason Bartlett and LEW! Ford, Cuddyer is constantly being torn down in the media by Ron Gardenhire. Expect Cuddyer to be back in the super-utility role for which he is actually pretty talented by August.

LEW! Ford will not see nearly as many at bats at designated hitter this season thankfully, as his range was wasted and his offense really is nothing special. He gets on base, has some moderate power, and really churns his legs while he runs making him quite entertaining to watch. It looks like it takes him twice as many steps to run as someone like Dave Winfield. Ford on the Twins is no longer a great fit because he and Shannon Stewart offer virtually the same strengths and weaknesses. Still, he has provided very good value to the Twins in exchange for twenty-five outs from Hector Carrasco.

Jason Kubel is the wildcard in the roster mix. For now, he is slated to begin the year at Rochester and wait for an injury for a spot to open. He was fantastic at three different levels in 2004, but his final at bat against Mariano Rivera left a sour taste in the mouths of a lot of Twins fans. By all accounts, his surgically repaired knee has been holding up very well and his defense has been acceptable this spring. Still, the Twins do not have a reputation for clearing spots for their prospects.

Designated Hitter – RonDL White and Ruben Sierra

Ruben Sierra’s homerun in Game 4 of the 2004 ALDS led to one of the funniest quotes in recent memory as Juan Rincon told reporters, “No one wants to be in my pants right now.” The humor somehow did not quite equal the frustration that Sierra’s homerun caused in the Upper Midwest. He will be filling the role that Jose Offerman held in 2004 as a left-handed pinch-hitter off the bench for Bartlett. Ron Gardenhire got great production from Offerman then, and Sierra will probably manage to not be any worse than Michael Ryan or Terry Tiffee.

With names like Mike Piazza and Frank Thomas floating around, the Twins snapped up RonDL White to be their designated hitter. If he stays healthy, he will prove to be a much better fit than Piazza. The Twins lineup has been very lefty-heavy the past few years, and White will help break-up the monotony and force managers to add three minutes to games by making that one additional pitching change to “play the percentages”. If White plays the outfield in one game in which LEW! Ford is the designated hitter, Ron Gardenhire should be committed.

Starting Rotation

In Freakonomics, Steven Levitt demonstrates that some baby names are “smarter” than others because of the education of the mother. He also demonstrated that the smarter names get “dumbed down” in a generation as less educated parents copy the names of the people who they respect. While this has nothing to do with anything, I just wanted to brag that two of the “smartest” baby names currently are Will and Johan (look for a lot more Will’s and Johan’s to be born about twenty years from now). Plus, I throw left-handed. So Johan Santana and I have a lot in common. Look for Johan to be dominant as usual, give up a few too many homeruns, and not win as many games as he deserves because the offense forgets to score more than three runs.

In what many believe will be his final season, Brad Radke is working on a new pitch to help keep left-handed batters from teeing off on him. Lefties hit Radke to the tune of 291/315/517 last year and he might have led the league in homeruns allowed if he had not skipped his last couple of starts with a nagging injury. Well, the first time that Radke threw this new pitch, Jorge Posada crushed it for a homerun. Needless to say, results are mixed.

The third starter is Mr. Fastball, Carlos Silva. One may ask how a pitcher who struck out just 3.4 batters per 9 innings could be Mr. Fastball. Two reasons. First, Silva led the Majors in strikeout-to-walk ratio with Johan Santana finishing second nearly fifty percent worse. Second, and more meaningfully, Carlos Silva threw a higher percentage of fastballs than any other pitcher in baseball last season. Of course, Silva’s fastball only comes in around 90 mph, and has a late dip on it. However, he keeps pounding the glove in the exact same spot and forces the opposition to hit it.

Since there is no way to really put this into context, I will simply point out that Carlos Silva walked 9 batters last season. In 188.1 innings. Spanning 27 starts. And 749 batters faced.

While we are on the subject, the Twins love to force the opposition to swing the bat. The pitching staff is built around people who will throw strikes and rely on the defense to do the work for them. Johan Santana led the team in most walks allowed last year and he still managed to finish eighth best in the entire American League in fewer walks per 9 innings. In four years at the helm, Rick Anderson has compiled a reputation as pitching coach that Leo Mazzone would love to hang his hat on.

The fourth starter spot will be held yet again by Kyle Lohse. He really does not seem to fit with the Twins, and his continued presence on the roster is pretty surprising. The Twins have pitching prospects coming out of their ears, and Lohse should be worth at least a Wily Mo Pena, but the Twins have continued to hold onto him and block Francisco Liriano from the rotation. He dumped his curveball from the arsenal and suddenly had much more success with the fastball/slider/change combo. Still, he is the odd man out in Minnesota as both a Boras client and as someone who took a bat to Ron Gardenhire’s door.

Scott Baker seems to have won the final spot in the rotation, and he should look virtually identical to all the other starters besides Johan. Baker brings a low-90s fastball, a big sweeping curve, a nifty changeup, and a whole bunch of poise to the mound. Baker carries himself like a Brad Radke-clone and should be considered one of the better young pitching prospects in all of the game. He gets overshadowed by the dominance of Francisco Liriano, but there are about twenty-nine other organizations that would love to get their hands on him. Baker was the second in a line of excellent second-round draft picks by the Twins in recent years. In four consecutive years, the Twins have snagged Jesse Crain, Scott Baker, Anthony Swarzak and Kevin Slowey in the second round and watched them quickly move up the organization and jump other more heralded pitchers.

Bullpen

Joe Nathan is dominant. He had more than twice as many strikeouts as hits allowed last season and loves to bring a fastball in the upper-90s. After he gets two strikes, Nathan will throw a drop-off-the-table curveball that just vanishes in the dirt below the swinging bat.

The second power righthander in the Twins bullpen is Juan Rincon. He had surgery on his arm in the off-season and is still experiencing some lingering problems. Like Nathan, Rincon throws a hard fastball but he complements it with a sharp breaking slider. He is part of the Venezuelan contingent on the team, and could probably handle closing if the Twins decide to take advantage of Nathan’s fairly inexpensive contract.

Another closer candidate would be Jesse Crain. Like the first two, Crain throws a very hard fastball but he has taken to dropping a little speed off of it in exchange for some additional control and movement. The result has been both very confusing and very successful. After striking out 11.5 batters / 9 innings throughout his minor league career, Crain has just 39 strikeouts in 106.2 innings with the Twins. This has raised doubts about his future, but they seem very premature. If anything, Rick Anderson deserves the benefit of the doubt until proven otherwise with his work on tweaking a Twins pitcher.

The final lock for the Twins bullpen is Shaggy Guerrier. He performed admirably last season as the long man in the bullpen and provided a curious ear for Old Man Mulholland’s tall tales of adventure, treachery, and revenge about his many encounters with Pirates. The Twins starters last year were very good and that kept Guerrier from seeing a whole of action as Ron Gardenhire avoiding using him in tight spots. He pieced together 20.2 consecutive scoreless innings and, if not for one horrible appearance on August 20, would have ended the season with a 2.65 ERA.

Francisco Liriano can slam a revolving door. When Liriano does a push-up, he doesn’t push himself up, he pushes the world down. There is no theory of evolution; just a list of animals Francisco Liriano allows to live. Francisco Liriano counted to infinity – twice! Francisco Liriano gave Mona Lisa that smile.

The other lefty still in the mix for the bullpen is Dennys Reyes. Reyes is a hefty man and has bounced around on many different teams in a mop-up role and occasionally snagging a start. He might go north with the Twins, but they have been concerns that he may attempt to eat Nick Punto.

Lastly, there’s Willie Eyre. He has a fairly similar skill-set to Matt Guerrier as he does not throw particularly hard, but relies on his control and changing speeds. The Twins love to find those sorts of guys as bullpen filler (think Joa Roa, Matt Guerrier, and Tony Fiore), so they just may reward him for his years in the organization.

Conclusion

I have rewritten this conclusion about ten times, so let me just say that I have no idea what to expect from the 2006 Twins. They could make the playoffs or finish in fourth place. Terry Ryan has operated on the principle of limiting risk for several seasons, but this is now coming back to bite him as he has to rely on several risks – Luis Castillo’s legs, RonDL White’s health, a popgun offense – just to be in the hunt for the playoffs. Put a gun to my head, and I predict 86 wins.

2006 ZiPS Projections - Minnesota Twins

Name               P     G   AB    R    H  2B  3B  HR  RBI   BB    K  SB  CS   AVG   OBP   SLG 
Mauer*             c   122  452   59  137  22   2  10   56   55   63  12   2  .303  .377  .427 
Castillo#          2b  141  532   94  171  15   5   4   58   73   57  15  11  .321  .401  .391 
Morneau*           1b  145  530   76  141  25   2  30   93   53  103   0   1  .266  .336  .491 
White              lf  115  420   59  120  23   2  16   68   26   68   1   2  .286  .336  .464 
Ford               cf  143  513   73  146  30   4   9   61   51   78  13   5  .285  .363  .411 
Kubel*             rf  135  477   77  141  25   2  12   70   44   67   8   8  .296  .355  .432 
Hunter             cf  129  492   72  130  31   1  19   76   43   93  16   8  .264  .328  .447 
Cuddyer            3b  120  391   52  103  24   2  12   49   44   87   4   5  .263  .340  .427 
Stewart            lf  124  519   66  147  26   2  10   60   42   68   6   5  .283  .342  .399 
Bartlett           ss  128  462   77  130  22   3   7   47   46   71  12  10  .281  .354  .387 
West               lf  136  480   62  124  33   1  18   70   34  120   2   3  .258  .317  .444 
Romero#            lf  131  460   63  128  21   1  10   56   34   66   8   5  .278  .336  .393 
Rodriguez#         2b  129  452   60  127  29   2   3   44   43   49   3   4  .281  .343  .374 
Tiffee#            3b  119  425   52  113  26   2  12   60   24   42   3   0  .266  .308  .421 
Williams#          3b   88  317   42   81  17   2  10   43   19   69   3   2  .256  .305  .416 
Jones*             1b  134  476   67  116  22   1  23   70   27  117   5   3  .244  .286  .439 
Redmond            c    62  182   17   49  11   0   1   20    9   21   0   0  .269  .320  .346 
Tyner*             lf  128  486   69  135  18   2   1   37   37   56  13   8  .278  .333  .329 
Bowen#             c    90  270   33   62  12   0   7   27   30   78   1   1  .230  .314  .352 
Rabe               cf  116  405   58  100  22   0  10   49   35   79  12   9  .247  .311  .375 
Heintz             c    91  315   31   82  17   1   5   37   17   56   0   0  .260  .298  .368 
Hart               1b  133  494   54  110  28   0  17   58   43  117   0   1  .223  .292  .383 
Torres#            cf   94  347   55   88  14   3   4   33   33   79  17  12  .254  .321  .346 
Wooten             dh  107  353   31   84  16   0   8   37   25   63   0   1  .238  .295  .351 
Batista            3b  146  579   62  137  25   1  21   70   23  117   4   3  .237  .270  .392 
Moses*             3b  108  388   53   91  15   2   9   46   27   99   8   4  .235  .291  .353 
Punto#             2b  101  339   39   82  15   3   3   28   31   77  11   7  .242  .303  .330 
Castro             ss  104  287   27   70  17   1   5   31   12   49   1   2  .244  .272  .362 
Raines#            cf  130  456   63  112  21   4   5   37   28  102  23  16  .246  .297  .342 
Pridie*            cf  105  385   70   85  17   4  12   46   19   92  11   4  .221  .265  .379 
Tomlin             cf  131  411   53   91  17   1   3   31   19   71  12   5  .221  .257  .290 
Sierra#            rf   88  249   21   51  10   0   5   31   14   50   1   0  .205  .245  .305 

Name                 W   L    ERA   G  GS     INN    H   ER  HR   BB    K 
Nathan               7   1   2.41  71   0    71.0   48   19   4   22   92 
Santana*            18   6   2.91  33  33   232.0  181   75  22   48  250 
Rincon              10   3   3.00  72   0    81.0   63   27   4   32   86 
Crain                8   6   3.82  71   0    80.0   74   34   7   29   45 
Baker               11   8   3.99  30  30   185.0  183   82  24   36  129 
Silva               10   9   4.02  29  29   195.0  221   87  24   19   74 
Liriano*            11   9   4.08  27  26   159.0  138   72  19   61  165 
Radke               11  10   4.09  32  32   211.0  224   96  30   26  122 
Kemp                 5   6   4.44  59   0    79.0   77   39   8   35   59 
Guerrier             4   5   4.46  34  15   119.0  124   59  19   26   79 
Perkins*             5   6   4.57  24  23   128.0  131   65  18   45   94 
Korecky              3   4   4.57  52   0    63.0   65   32   8   18   44 
White*               2   2   4.58  45   0    53.0   60   27   8   13   31 
Lohse               10  13   4.64  33  32   190.0  207   98  25   53  105 
Reyes*               5   4   4.66  52   0    83.0   87   43   6   44   73 
Neshek               4   5   4.69  52   0    71.0   71   37  12   23   64 
Gassner*             8  11   4.87  28  24   146.0  163   79  22   33   75 
Durbin               4   6   4.89  23  20   103.0  101   56  13   50   85 
Glynn                5   6   4.90  26  19   112.0  110   61  15   49   81 
Eyre                 5   8   4.91  44  11   110.0  111   60  13   51   78 
Bonser               7  14   5.33  28  28   157.0  159   93  31   63  146 
Munro                7  10   5.37  39  18   124.0  146   74  19   36   69 
May*                 8  11   5.45  33  25   170.0  195  103  34   45  101 
Miller               2   7   6.08  13  13    71.0   84   48  13   29   32 
Olson                3  13   6.75  35  12    96.0  107   72  23   53   71 


Disclaimer:  ZiPS projections are computer-based projections of performance.  
Performances have not been allocated to predicted playing time in the majors - 
many of the players listed above are unlikely to play in the majors at all in 2006.  
ZiPS is projecting equivalent production - a .240 ZiPS projection may end up 
being .280 in AAA or .300 in AA, for example.  Whether or not a player will play 
is one of many non-statistical factors one has to take into account when predicting 
the future.