2006 New York Mets

Another off-season, another load of big names (Past their prime) joining the Mets. Whodathunk it?

Will this year’s set do better than last year’s? Let’s hope. Quickly let’s look at how it went last year.

I wrote “I see the Mets getting home at 81-81.” Eh, 83-79. Pretty close. However, the Mets hovered around .500 all season, never really challenging for the division, and really barely staying out of the cellar as the entire division stayed above .500 for most of the 2005 season.

Willie Randolph was expected to be one of the big changes from 2004 to 2005, and he was, but he was a really weak manager. He mired David Wright in the bottom of the lineup for too much of the season. He loaded the bench with too many players like himself – position-wise, but not skill-wise. He struggled with handling a pitching staff and bullpen. He managed like someone who didn’t have much experience managing in the big leagues. Hopefully with one season under his belt, he’ll make fewer, far fewer, poor decisions. Omar Minaya added a bunch more talent to make those decisions easier for Willie.

Catcher – Paul LoDuca, Ramon Castro

LoDuca had a great year in 2001. He’s lived off of it since. He does hit well for a catcher, but he’s no Mike Piazza. Since his big 2001, LoDuca’s OPS+ marks have gone 100, 92, 99, 92. He’s 34 – shouldn’t he be playing for the Giants or the Orioles? Catchers historically are done at age 34. LoDuca has also caught 130-150 games each of those seasons, and now “playing time supplements” are going to be out of the game.

That means Ramon Castro is going to play just as much as he did in 2005. He played pretty well (OPS+ 97), so hopefully he’ll keep that going.

This change will reduce the Mets run-scoring slightly, but not significantly.

First Base – Carlos Delgado

In 1999, Jon Olerud posted a fun-to-watch OPS+ of 131. Since then, the Mets couldn’t top 116 out of the first base position. That isn’t good. Carlos Delgado is bringing a four-year (or three year or two-year) OPS+ of 145 or higher. Delgado is miles better than anyone the Mets have played in the last five years. Okay, he too is 34, but he can rake, and doesn’t play the most demanding position on the field. Delgado alone will mean 30-40 more runs for the Mets at the position.

Second Base – Anderson Hernandez

Kaz Matsui’s injury means the Mets get to accelerate Anderson Hernandez' career. Is that a good thing? I don’t know how good he is defensively, but he can’t be any worse than the 2005 Mets second basemen. Hernandez got Mets fans excited in 2004 when he slugged a lot in Binghamton. He didn’t continue that at Norfolk, and he doesn’t walk very much. He’s going to struggle mightily, and I don’t know how long Randolph will keep him in the lineup. Randolph has said the right things about Hernandez’ playing time prospects, but that doesn’t always hold up when gametime rolls around.

Hernandez is going to be a contact hitter with speed, not unlike Reyes, but with less speed and probably less power. If Randolph sticks them both at the top of the order, the Mets will have a bunch of nobody on, two out first innings.

Chris Woodward played really well for Chris Woodward in 2005, so I’m not mortified over the backup situation.

Due to early season struggles and inexperience, this position won’t improve over the 2005 efforts of suckage.

Hernandez will be 23.

Shortstop – Jose Reyes

Jose Reyes made it through the whole season without injury. He got 730 Pas, but his hitting was a disappointment. HE didn’t hit the ball very well at all to start the season, with a .284 OBP batting leadoff. That dragged the Mets entire season – particularly with David Wright hitting 7th. Reyes hit .320/.410 after the break. He also stole a base every other game after the break, ending the season with 60 SBs. Randolph likes Reyes to run, and he steals at a high success rate (80%), so if he can keep his OBP closer to 0.320 than 0.280, he may steal 90-100 bases.

Reyes’ defense is still a little shaky. He should improve some over the next few seasons, but I don’t expect him to be a Gold Glove shortstop.

I expect higher productivity from Reyes in 2006, meaning additional 10-15 runs.

Reyes will be 23.

Third Base – David Wright

It didn’t take long for David Wright to become one of the premier third basemen in the National League. Right now the position is loaded, with Wright, Rolen, Jones and Cabrera. I expect Wright to be the class of the group due to his age and speed.

Wright hit .306/.388/.523 in 2005 at age 22, and it will only get better.

Wright, like Reyes, still needs to work on his defense.

Wright will be 23.

Left Field – Cliff Floyd

I gave Floyd the business in this space last year, and Floyd went out and played 150 games, and played some great defense. His leg either healed fully, or he figured out how to run around on it. He also bounced back with the bat.

Cliff is 33, and definitely on the way down, but he had good pop, played good defense, ran well, and probably won’t fall off the cliff in 2006. I doubt he’ll do much more than what he did in 2005, and I would be surprised if his defense held up.

Center Field – Carlos Beltran

Beltran had to be the biggest flop of 2005. No one should have expected the 2005 Playoff Beltran (although Omar did), but Beltran’s performance was atrocious. He hit for a low average, didn’t walk much and showed a huge drop in power. His ISO fell from a three-year average of 240 to 150. Okay, some of that is Shea Stadium, but he really stunk. He also took it upon himself to bat third and proceeded to bunt with runners on base.

Beltran’s career progression was a nice 108, 126, 136 going into his 28-year old season, where he can be expected to post something similar to his age 27 season. He did not. He posted a 95. That a difference of 35 runs.

Is Beltran going to bounce back? Marcel-like predictors would say that Beltran should produce something like a 120 OPS+. That’d add another 20 runs to the Mets offense.

Okay, Beltran played excellent defense – it wasn’t a completely terrible season.

Right Field – Xavier Nady

Mike Cameron was traded for Xavier Nady for no apparent reason, other than Minaya pulled the trigger too early on the “Center Fielder” market. Nady is a worse player than Cameron, who wasn’t happy with right field and wanted a trade. Worse, the Mets already have a version of Nady named Victor Diaz, who is three years younger.

Where are the plusses? Nady is younger than Cameron, but that doesn’t help because Diaz also is. Okay, there’s no upside. It was a bad trade for two reasons: Minaya pulled the trigger too early, with CF openings all over the place, and even given that he had to trade the the Padres, he traded for a redundancy. Wasn’t Mark Loretta available? Oh, yes, he was.

The Mets won’t lose much ground here compared to 2005, and what they do lose would be from the defense.

Nady will be 27 – maybe the Mets will catch lightning in a bottle.

Bench – Jose Valentin, Endy Chavez, Julio Franco, Chris Woodward, Kazuo Matsui, Victor Diaz

Who constructs these benches? Not a left-handed hitter on the bench and no, Endy Chavez does not render that sentence untrue. Are the Mets anticipating tons of LOOGYs? No one to pinch-hit for Nady, except Diaz. The left-handed hitters we have, Delgado and Floyd actually will stay in the lineup against LHPs. So the one key hitter you need is a LH hitting catcher and a LH hitting right fielder.

What do the Mets have? Not that.

Okay, it isn’t some critical parameter, but even the basic middle school scorekeeper would be aware of the platoon differentials, and have at least one left-handed hitter on the bench.

The Pitchers

Starters – Pedro Martinez, Tom Glavine, Victor Zambrano, Steve Trachsel, Brian Bannister

Pedro Martinez was everything the Mets wanted him to be – he threw 200+ innings, posted a 148 ERA+, and was a outstanding starter. Pedro has some nagging injury problems, but he didn’t really show any signs of not being a great pitcher. I expect that to continue in 2006.

Tom Glavine continued his HOF path, posting a very good 118 ERA+ in 200+ IP. He is presently at 275 wins, and should get 15 more this season. This is the last of his four seasons on his contract with the Mets. If he manages a 120 ERA+, I can see the Mets signing him for one more year to get his 300th. I expect Glavine to post an ERA around 3.50 again.

Victor Zambrano really ticks me off. Scott Kazmir pitched more innings with a lower ERA. His career with the Mets can’t end soon enough.

The Mets also boneheadedly dumped Jae Seo. Mets pitching coach Rick Peterson didn’t like him, so we traded him for a worst pitcher that plays the same position. And from the Dodgers – just like getting Ishii last season.

Steve Trachsel was injured most of 2005, and pitched as well as Zambrano or Benson in the innings he got. Trax has been on a steady “end of career” decline over the last four seasons, so the Mets may be lucky to get 175 IP at 100 ERA+ this year.

The Bullpen

Last season, the Mets had a pretty good bullpen. The management of it wasn’t very good, but there were some very bright spots in it – Juan Padilla, who is on the 60–day DL, the ageless Roberto Hernandez and Aaron Heilman shone when coming out of the pen.

The Mets added Billy Wagner, as considerable step up from Braden Looper. Wagner posted a 1.51 ERA last season (300 ERA+), and should allow less than half the runs that Met closers allowed in 2005. Sure, that’s just 15 runs or so, but they are all 9th inning runs in close games. Those 15 runs are likely to be worth 5-7 wins.

The rest of the relief corps probably won’t be as successful, but could appraoch the marks. Hopefully, Zambrano, Trachsel and Bannister can pitch more innings than Zambrano, Benson and Ishii/Seo did in 2005. That could easily mean 60 fewer innings left to the bullpen – hopefully taken away from the bad pitchers.

The Results

The pitching staff is going to come home about the same, or slightly worse, with a slightly different distribution. Wagner not blowing the game in the ninth inning will offset not having Roberto Hernandez pitch well. If Heilman actually blossoms into a two-inning guy, the bullpen could improve. Call it “allowing 670 runs”.

The offense, however, is dramatically better. Beltran should improve his own performance by 35 runs and Delgado should improve the 1b position by another 40 runs. Reyes should be more consistent from beginning to end, adding another 10 runs. That means the Mets score about 810 runs. All things considered, the Mets could improve by 20 games.

Yes, that’s dramatic and surprising, but don’t forget, the Mets Pythags for 2005 were 89-73.

I see the Mets getting home at 93-69.

2006 ZiPS Projections - New York Mets

Name               P     G   AB    R    H  2B  3B  HR  RBI   BB    K  SB  CS   AVG   OBP   SLG 
Delgado*           1b  143  508   81  146  37   1  29  107   81  129   0   0  .287  .398  .535 
Wright             3b  161  583  107  182  32   1  29  113   74   99  29   7  .312  .393  .520 
Floyd*             lf  136  490   68  131  25   1  26   83   62   95  10   3  .267  .359  .482 
Beltran#           cf  156  607   90  167  34   4  23   90   79  100  25  11  .275  .360  .458 
Nady               rf  125  400   60  113  21   1  18   65   33   71   2   2  .282  .344  .475 
Diaz               rf  146  535   82  153  25   2  26   87   40  137  10   6  .286  .338  .486 
Matsui#            ss  115  441   55  119  26   2   7   49   42   87   8   2  .270  .339  .385 
Lo Duca            c   138  496   53  140  29   1   7   61   37   44   2   4  .282  .338  .387 
Castro             c    80  172   20   40  12   0   7   28   21   47   1   0  .233  .314  .424 
Franco             1b  105  236   25   63  11   1   5   32   23   54   1   1  .267  .332  .386 
Keppinger          2b  110  412   58  121  17   2   3   40   29   25   7   5  .294  .342  .367 
Reyes#             ss  137  590   91  166  19  15   7   64   26   68  59  11  .281  .311  .400 
Lambin#            2b  121  403   56  103  26   1  12   51   36   96   4   4  .256  .319  .414 
Tejeda             1b  127  459   57  118  22   1  13   61   35   95   1   2  .257  .317  .394 
Milledge           cf  104  383   72  109  21   0   7   42   22   86  19  11  .285  .331  .394 
Redman*            cf  147  486   58  137  19   5   5   50   31   42  13   7  .282  .326  .372 
Woodward           ss   87  261   28   68  14   2   5   29   23   57   3   3  .261  .323  .387 
Harper*            1b  116  403   55   94  16   1  21   65   30  138   0   1  .233  .289  .434 
Chavez*            cf  143  490   57  136  20   5   5   49   37   48  20  10  .278  .328  .369 
Basak              ss  124  427   58  102  23   3   9   46   40  107  13   9  .239  .309  .370 
Aldridge*          cf  125  450   61  100  19   2  19   60   35  122   9   5  .222  .280  .400 
Hernandez#         ss  134  507   68  136  15   4   5   44   26  111  26  11  .268  .307  .343 
Valentin#          3b  116  395   50   78  17   2  19   57   42  107   5   5  .197  .278  .395 
Martinez*          c    72  228   23   55  10   0   6   28   13   52   1   2  .241  .286  .364 
Ramirez            cf  115  384   52   85  15   2  10   44   15  105  14   8  .221  .254  .349 
Hietpas            c    92  283   22   53  14   0   3   23   25   78   1   1  .187  .268  .269 

Name                 W   L    ERA   G  GS     INN    H   ER  HR   BB    K 
Wagner*              5   1   2.54  70   0    71.0   51   20   6   19   82 
Martinez            16   7   3.20  31  31   211.0  175   75  19   53  206 
Padilla              5   3   3.52  62   1    92.0   85   36   8   26   63 
Bell                 3   2   3.86  55   0    70.0   63   30   7   23   69 
Parra                2   2   3.95  38   0    41.0   36   18   4   18   36 
Schmoll              4   3   4.00  61   0    81.0   75   36   4   32   62 
Koo*                 0   0   4.00  35   0    27.0   25   12   2   14   22 
Bradford             5   4   4.09  59   0    55.0   51   25   4   23   42 
Maine               10   9   4.12  29  28   153.0  137   70  17   61  143 
Glavine*            13  12   4.13  33  33   205.0  213   94  17   67   98 
Heilman              7   6   4.18  42  19   140.0  129   65  11   64  116 
Fortunato            5   4   4.19  51   2    73.0   58   34   8   43   83 
Wylie                3   4   4.35  22   7    62.0   62   30   7   20   45 
Bannister            9   9   4.38  27  27   156.0  160   76  17   45  113 
Sanchez              4   5   4.44  70   0    77.0   74   38   7   34   56 
Trachsel            10  12   4.50  29  29   182.0  206   91  23   68   99 
Zambrano             9  10   4.53  30  27   165.0  152   83  14   94  122 
Oliver*              6   7   4.65  25  20   124.0  132   64  14   39   60 
Keppel               3   5   4.69  13  12    71.0   79   37   8   18   31 
Julio                3   4   4.77  64   0    66.0   61   35   9   31   64 
Gonzalez             6   6   4.80  34  19   137.0  146   73  18   47   89 
McGinley             4   7   4.81  44   2    88.0   91   47  16   24   69 
Feliciano*           3   4   5.10  50   0    67.0   72   38   9   28   47 
Humber               3   6   5.23  15  15    74.0   86   43  11   20   41 
Lindstrom            4   7   5.29  31  19   114.0  126   67  16   44   66 
Perisho*             3   5   5.33  56   2    49.0   47   29   6   28   38 
Venafro*             1   3   5.40  54   0    55.0   62   33   7   25   32 
Ring*                2   4   5.43  49   0    53.0   54   32   7   28   38 
Santiago             4  10   5.49  38  11   105.0  125   64  12   41   44 
Strayhorn            1   7   7.36  36   0    44.0   51   36  10   30   27 
Hill                 1   4   7.42  31   0    40.0   39   33   6   39   31 

Disclaimer:  ZiPS projections are computer-based projections of performance.  
Performances have not been allocated to predicted playing time in the majors - 
many of the players listed above are unlikely to play in the majors at all in 2006.  
ZiPS is projecting equivalent production - a .240 ZiPS projection may end up 
being .280 in AAA or .300 in AA, for example.  Whether or not a player will play 
is one of many non-statistical factors one has to take into account when predicting 
the future.