2006 New York Yankees

You see, SG has already looked at and projected a lot of what we would write – so rather than regurgitate what he said, why don’t you go read it yourself.

Catchers

First Base

Second Base

Third Base

Shortstop

Left, Center and Right Field

Starting Pitching Staff Such As It Is

Mariano Rivera and the rest of the ‘pen

That said, we’ve set some questions before our panel – most of whom you know: SG, RB in DC and myself – and two distinguished guests: Cliff Corcoran from Bronx Banter and relative newcomer to the Yankee blogosphere Michael Axisa from In George We Trust.

So like I said, if you want stats – go look to SG’s projections and commentary, but for some relatively informed opinions, keep reading.

1. What roster move has been most significant this off-season?
   
   Cliff Corcoran: The most important thing the Yankees did this offseason was addition by subtraction. The Womack trade was downright miraculous. Though if I had to name a single transaction that could make the difference this year, I’d point to the Dotel deal.
   
   SG: Signing Damon, since it is about a 5 win upgrade over last year’s CF. Extra credit for dumping some detritus from the back end of the bench, the rotation, and the bullpen.
   
   Michael Axisa: The obvious choice is Damon, but if Mike Myers does his job and gets the Ortiz’s, Hafner’s and Thome’s of the AL out, he could be invaluable. 
   
   Sean McNally: Clearly the acquisition of Johnny Damon, at least for 2006. It hurts the Red Sox, provides a boost to the lineup and less so to the defense over Bernie Williams. But looking bigger picture, the re-signing of Brian Cashman and his apparent bloodless coup over the Tampa Mafia is probably the thing we’ll back at most fondly in a few years.

RB in DC: Far and away, signing Damon. That’s basically been discussed ad nauseam, but whoever—I think it was Larry— said it was the biggest move in the Yankee/Sox battles of the last few years was probably right because of its impact both adding to the Yankees and taking away from the Sox. Boston has since filled that hole admirably with Crisp (assuming he’s not a disaster defensively) but the value added for the Yankees over their parade of ineptitude in center field shouldn’t be overlooked. I see Damon as a three to six win upgrade.

2. Going into the 2006 campaign, what is the most troubling thing about the Yankees?
   
   Cliff Corcoran: That the at-bats that should be going to Andy Phillips will be going to Bernie Williams.
   
   SG: The age of the team, and the lack of depth, especially on the position player side. There is some decent back-end pitching depth between DeSalvo and Rassner.
   
   Michael Axisa: The health of the starting rotation. Pavano, Wright and Small are already hurt, and there’s always the prospect of Wang’s shoulder giving out. 
   
   Sean McNally: Defense. Defense. Defense.
   
   RB in DC: The combination of the age of the team and their lack of depth. Cano, Wang and Chacon are the only guys who could truly be described as “young” and Chacon is twenty-eight. This team has been lucky to avoid any major injuries the last few years, but the drop-off from frontline to replacement talent is steep, so an injury almost anywhere on the field could be crippling. 
   
   

3.      If __________ goes down for the season in April, the Yankees will not have a chance at the playoffs and why?

Cliff Corcoran: Randy Johnson, he may be old and have a bad back and a bum knee, but he’s still one of the best pitchers in the league and the only one the Yankees can count on to pitch 200 innings in 2006.

SG: Posada, because Kelly Stinnett is not capable of being a starting catcher. Jeter/Rodriguez/Cano, because Miguel Cairo is nothing more than a utility man. Sheffield/Damon/Matsui , because it means lots and lots of Bernie in the OF, and at the plate. Giambi, because it means too much Andy Phillips. Randy Johnson – Because no other pitcher on the Yankees projects as better than league average.

Michael Axisa: Easily Mariano Rivera. If someone like A-Rod or Sheff gets hurt, there’s enough offense to pick up the slack, but if Rivera gets hurt it could mean 10 more losses. 

Sean McNally: It’s tough to give this to an offensive player, but if ARod blows out a knee or elbow or something – the drop in production from him to Miguel Cairo or Russ Johnson is astronomical. A close second is Rivera, but even moving from Mo to Farnsworth isn’t as damaging as losing ARod.

RB in DC: “…the left side of the infield …” As mentioned earlier, this team has an appalling lack of depth all over the field and an injury to almost anyone could be devastating. A-Rod and Jeter are probably the two most irreplaceable however, particularly the former.  

4. By Aug. 1, what player currently in the system is most likely to be playing for someone else?
   
   Cliff Corcoran: Jorge DePaula.
   
   SG: Wil Nieves, since he’s out of options and they won’t carry him all season.
   
   Michael Axisa: Scott Proctor is gone at some point this season, and he’s actually a pretty decent trading chip: he’s relatively young (29), cheap (around the league minimum) and throws hard (mid-to-high 90s). As far as yet-to-reach-the-majors prospects go, Cashman seems committed to rebuilding the system, but I think someone like Melky Cabrera or Tim Battle could be had for the right price. 
   
   Sean McNally: Scott Proctor, although the time to have foisted him on someone for some outfield depth or an interesting younger arm or two probably was during or after his hot spring training.
   
   RB in DC: Probably Eric Duncan. I don’t see a likely trade that would tempt the Yankees to give up someone like Hughes, especially if Cashman is still running the show that time of year. Obviously, injuries could change a lot of that, but the Yankee system’s strength is at the lower levels which doesn’t usually draw much value come deadline day. 
   
   
5. When trading season comes, who is the most likely target?
   
   Cliff Corcoran: Pass.
   
   SG: An outfielder or first baseman. They should have picked one up in the offseason. Wilkerson would have been a perfect fit, and they should still look for someone of that ilk.
   
   Michael Axisa: The obvious targets are Barry Zito and one of the excess White Sox starters, but I think some of the veterans the Marlins brought in could be targets. If Joe Borowski is solid out of the pen, and Wes Helms does well in whatever capacity he is used, they could be cheap pick ups for the bullpen and bench, respectively. 
   
   Sean McNally: At this point, it’s tough to know who’s available – but an impact bat to DH (a Soriano revival perhaps) or in keeping with the Nationals theme, Jose Guillen’s contract is expiring and he could ably man right while Sheffield DH’ed. Or a pitcher to be named later.
   
   RB in DC: Probably a bullpen arm, but who that would be is an open question. The dream scenario is someone like Brad Lidge, but unless someone takes a major step forward in the minors or Houston is bizarrely desperate, it seems unlikely the team will be picking up anyone of major “name” value. Of course, as Chacon proved last year, sometimes “name” value is overrated. 
   
   
   
6. Will any of the new moving parts in the ‘pen earn Joe Torre’s trust, if any? If they don’t which former great is on his way back to the Bronx?
   
   Cliff Corcoran: Mike Myers. As for the second part, Ramiro Mendoza just might make the team out of camp, does that count?
   
   SG: Myers, due to his handedness. Farnsworth due to electricness of stuff. Dotel due to his standing as a former closer. Is Mendoza a former great? He’s the only pitcher I can see helping in the pen if someone flames out. He’d probably be better than Sturtze if healthy.
   
   Michael Axisa: Ron Villone seems like Torre’s kind of guy and he’s had a decent spring. But once he gets healthy, I think Octavio Dotel will be a guy Torre leans on. Heavily. If they don’t pan out, I think the only real former great with a shot at returning to the Bronx is Ramiro Mendoza, but he was never great per se, just pretty good. 
   
   
   Sean McNally: No one’s coming back. All the former stars are too former to be lured back. I’d like to say Farnsworth and Dotel will be the Nelson/Stanton of this new-look bullpen, but I’m not 100% confident there. So long as Myers doesn’t get to pitch to righties, he should be fine.
   
   RB in DC: Hopefully, they all will. The most likely is Mike Myers, since he’s been pretty consistently effective as a LOOGY over the years; I also think Dotel will be a key member of the pen once he returns, but that’s a couple of months off yet. The other two big pieces are Farnsworth and Villone; both need good starts to the season, especially keeping the walks down, to earn Joe’s seal of approval.  
   
   
7. Of the six primary potential starters: Johnson, Mussina, Wang, Chacon, Pavano and Wright – who is most likely to repeat their 2005 season? Most likely to improve? Most like to be shot by an angry mob?
   
   Cliff Corcoran: Johnson should improve, Wang should repeat, Chacon should regress, and Pavano and Wright have a date with the mob.
   
   SG: Since Mussina has repeated his 2004 in 2005, I’d guess he’ll repeat it again in 2006. 180-200 IP, 4.30 ERA.   
   
   If Wang can bump up his K rate, he’s the only Yankee starter with much upside. I don’t think any of the starters are very likely to improve all that much, but he’d be my choice.
   
   Shawn Chacon scares the hell out of me. Crappy peripherals + 88 mph fastball. If he doesn’t pick up some more velocity, I think he could implode big time.
   
   Michael Axisa: The most likely to repeat 2006 is probably Randy Johnson. 17 wins and a sub-4 ERA is well in reach for him, especially if his mechanics are in line. I think Chien-Ming Wang is the best bet to improve, especially if he stays healthy all year. I can see him winning 16-18 games with an ERA around 3.50, thanks to a GB-FB ratio in the neighborhood of 4. Jaret Wright has already been shot by the angry mob, now we’re just trying to find a way to get rid of the body. 
   
   
   Sean McNally: Well, Wright and Pavano are most likely to repeat their 2005 and be injured and/or ineffective and subsequently shot. Johnson should improve in year two.
   
   RB in DC: Mussina would seem the most logical candidate to repeat last year, around 180 league-average innings with 12 to 15 wins and occasional flashes of the Moose of old. This is probably a terrible cliché, but I’m expecting Johnson to improve somewhat in 2006; his spring has been healthier this year and his control seems much improved. Spring results are always sketchy, of course, but better dominating than getting creamed. As for the angry mob, they’re going to be after Wright, especially if Pavano can post a decent season once he gets his health sorted out.
   
   
8. One of the few areas where the Yanks aren’t entirely set is the back end of the bench. Of the collection of scrubs, guys with hot springs and older “prospects” assemble yourself you ideal bench.
   
   Cliff Corcoran: I’d have Andy Phillips as the full-time DH, so Russ Johnson (UT), Kevin Reese (4^th OF), Bubba Crosby (5^th OF), Felix Escalona (Futility IF), and Kelly Stinnett (C). Note the absence of Bernie Williams.
   
   SG: I like Cairo, since he can play capable defense and won’t play all that much. Stinnett’s better then Nieves so he’d be my backup catcher, although I’d keep an eye on Ben Davis. Andy Phillips should be more than a bench player, but I’ll assume that’ll be his role to start the year. Since I’d carry 11 pitchers, not 12, that leaves room for two OF. I’d dump Bubba somewhere and give the Kevins (Reese and Thompson) the 4^th and 5^th OF spots.
   
   Michael Axisa: Ideally, I’d like to see an 11 man pitching staff and a 5 man bench, with Stinnett, Cairo, Kevin Thompson, and either Andy Phillips or Bernie (depending on who’s DHing that day) riding the pine. As far as the fifth spot, I’d like to see another infielder, possibly Danny Garcia, but he hasn’t played much this spring. 
   
   Sean McNally: Stinnett, Cairo, Phillips, Bernie and both Kevins (Thompson and Reese).
   
   RB in DC: If Kelly Stinnett is set as the back-up catcher (an underrated move, incidentally, given how bad Flaherty was in ’05) and Miggy Cairo as the back-up infielder, I’d like to see Andy Phillips on the team as more than just a defensive replacement—ideally he’d see time at DH—and while Kevin Thompson is probably a better hitter than Bubba Crosby, I’d rather have Crosby’s glove than Thompson’s bat, since offense is not going to be a major issue for the team. If one of the outfielders goes down, however, it should be Thompson given a shot at holding down the job. 
   
   
9. The WBC allowed the Yanks to play some kids this spring – who impressed you the most?
   
   Cliff Corcoran: Marcos Vechionacci plays a major league third base, has fantastic plate judgement, and has plenty of time to develop his hitting. Eric Duncan looks legit. Ditto Matt DeSalvo. J. Brent Cox and Matt Smith also look sharp, though I’m far more enthusiastic about Cox.
   
   SG: Kevin Thompson looks like he could be useful. Not a star or probably even a full-time starter, but he’s got a good eye, decent speed, and the ability to play all 3 OF positions, although it looks like he gets shaky reads at times.  I also think Matt DeSalvo looked good and will get some time in the Bronx this year.
   
   Michael Axisa: I’ll give you three of them. Matt DeSalvo has been getting people out all spring, just like he has since his days at Marietta. Eric Duncan has really showed me something as well, I like that 6 of his 12 hits have gone for extra bases. Kevin Thompson has impressed everyone, hitting almost .400 in over 40 ABs is nothing to shake a stick at.  
    
   Sean McNally: I really liked what I saw out of Duncan and Vechionacci. I would have liked to see more of Hughes, but what I did see made me warm and fuzzy inside. And like Michael said, Thompson impressed the hell out of pretty much everyon.
   
   RB in DC: Eric Duncan. Even coming off his AFL performance, I was cynical, having been burned by Drew Henson’s performance down there. That said, his final line (.414, with six XBH, in twenty-nine plate appearances) is representative of the kind of performance he had. I still think Triple-A is going to be a stretch, but at least Duncan will have two major boosts of confidence going into the season.
   
   
10. When we look back at the season, will the great bullpen reconstruction be viewed as a success?
    
    Cliff Corcoran: “Great bullpen reconstruction?” If Tanyon Sturtze is still involved, no “great reconstruction” has taken place. Do I think Farnsworth and Dotel will form a fantastic duo in the latter half of the year? Yes. Do I think Myers will be hell on lefties? Eh. Do I think Villone will last the season? Not really. Do I think a minor leaguer will be given a legitimate shot to contribute? No, and until that happens they’re just spinning their wheels.
    
    SG: It’s tough to say. I have zero faith in Joe Torre as anything more than a pushbutton manager when it comes to managing his bullpen. They project worse at the top end and better in the back end, but the back end of the pen is where Torre can do his most damage, as he tends to under utilize people so that when they pitch, they are not sharp, which ends up burying them more.
    
    Michael Axisa: With the Yanks, the only way the new bullpen will be considered a success is if they help the team win the World Series. They brought in 4 guys, and I think it’s inevitable that at least 1 of them won’t pan out.  
    
    Sean McNally: Compared to last year, most definitely.
    
    RB in DC: A classic answer: No, but. No one in the pen is likely to be good as last year, Rivera included, and Farnsworth is unlikely to be as good as Gordon was. But, from the top down, the pen figures to be more effective and while the dominant 1-2 might be gone, the drop-off from that 1-2 which has been huge the last two years once Quantrill and Sturtze lost their effectiveness figures to be much less so the pen on the whole might be about as good.  
    
    

11. Who should bat leadoff on April 3? Do you have any confidence that your pick to bat first ever will?
    
    Cliff Corcoran: It doesn’t matter.
    
    SG: Jeter. Only if Damon gets hurt. Honestly, it doesn’t matter, as long as he doesn’t bat Cano ninth which would make them more susceptible to LOOGYs. 
    
    Michael Axisa: Jeter should be leading off, no question. Over the last three years, Jeter’s line of .319-.386-.536-.922 when leading off an inning is better across the board than Damon’s (.289-.351-.427-.778). I’m sure Jeter will bat leadoff once in while (i.e when Damon gets a day off), but Torre will stick with Damon in the leadoff spot unless he is in a drastic slump. 
    
    
    Sean McNally: Logically, it doesn’t matter, but in my mind’s eye I have visions of lots and lots of heroic sac bunts from the Captain if he hits second.
    
    RB in DC: Johnny Damon. That may not be a popular opinion around here, and I know all the numbers on batting Jeter first, but (a) it really doesn’t matter altogether that much and (b) if Damon isn’t batting lead-off, there’s not really a logical place for him in the line-up. As to my confidence, I’m pretty sure Damon will bat lead-off every day he’s in the line-up 
    
    

12. Bernie Williams as DH - positive or negative?
    
    Cliff Corcoran: Negative. 
    
    SG: I’d try it and hope that the wear and tear of not playing the OF helps him get back to his 2004 level. I wouldn’t give him too much time if it’s obviously not working. 
    
    Michael Axisa: Hate to say it, but negative. I sure hope I’m wrong though.
    
    
    Sean McNally: Bernie, for all his Yankee greatness and many heroic moments, is at this time inadequate as a DH. That said, he seems to have taken his demotion to DH and eventual part-time player with all the class we’ve come to expect, which makes him a prime candidate for mid-season replacement at the trade deadline.
    
    RB in DC: On the whole, a positive. I have an idea—possibly born of hope more than logic—that being a DH will allow Bernie to rebound somewhat as an offensive player. If Bernie can bounce back to being a league-average kind of hitter that’s probably not going to be great DH production, but it will do for this team, especially since a lot of other guys (Giambi, Sheff) figure to rotate through the position. 
    
    

13. What can we expect from Jason Giambi this season?
    
    Cliff Corcoran: A lot. I think he has a solid chance to reproduce his career line of .295/.413/.539. He played 139 games and hit 32 homers with a .271/.440/.535 line last year after a dreadful start. This year it won’t take him until July to kick it into gear.
    
    SG: Expect the unexpected.
    
    Michael Axisa: I think Giambi will continue to produce. Pitchers will be more careful with him this year, and he’s got the batting eye to take advantage of that. But his .320-40-120 days are long gone. I’m looking for .280-35-100. 
    
    Sean McNally:.270/.410/.530 with about 35 homers. I personally think the “effects” of the alleged steroid use (tumor and controversy) paled in comparison to the ankle and knee problems that have hobbled him since May 2003. Prior to rolling his ankle in Texas back then, he was hitting almost identically to what he hit from June on last year. Those problems could crop up again, but I’m optimistic.
    
    RB in DC: Probably overall the same value, but divided up across the whole season, rather than just the last four months. In appearance then, Giambi may seem to have a decline (and he may not hit .270 again) but I think that given another 100-150 plate appearances, Giambi will be able to replicate his overall contribution to the team.
    
    

14. Of the Yanks core of players – who is primed for a decline and why?
    
    Cliff Corcoran: Sheffield has been declining ever since joining the Yankees, though he’s so good it’s been hard to notice. Posada is also in the middle of a multi-year decline and will be a 35-year-old catcher in August. Obviously Alex Rodriguez will see a drop-off after his MVP season. Damon will see a drop due to playing 70 fewer games in Fenway Park. 
    
    SG: Posada’s already in decline, so I’d have to say Sheffield. The OPS+ trend is not very encouraging (167/143/132). 
    
    Michael Axisa: Sheffield is on the wrong end of the bell curve, his key stats (OPS, HR, RBI, XBH, BB-K ratio) have all been on the decline the last 3 years. Of course, he’s still good for .285-30-100. 
    
    Sean McNally: For all the talk of Posada’s low mileage as a catcher, its just that, talk. He’s logged a lot of games behind the plate since taking the job full time, so he’s probably peaked and last season was a precursor of things to come.
    
    RB in DC: Pick ‘em. Any number of guys could fall of the cliff or just suffer a decline. No one but Cano in the everyday line-up is under thirty, and three are thirty-five and older. Sheffield has battled injuries the last two seasons, and seen his performance decline to some extent, but his bat-speed does remain. I’ll pick Matsui then, since although he’s young, he plays a lot of games each season so he might be due for an early decline.
    
    

15. Finally, at the end of the season, what will the Yanks be hanging in the Bronx: A pennant, a World Series banner or an as yet unnamed unclutch scapegoat?

Cliff Corcoran: None of the above, they hang those things the next April. In April 2007 it will be another AL East Championship banner.

SG: 95 wins, another AL East title, another first or second round playoff exit. No defense, shaky pitching, and only one way to win games. That just doesn’t work in the postseason very often.

Michael Axisa: The 27^th WS banner is going up. If the bullpen comes together and the starting rotation stays healthy, this team could be unbeatable with that offense.

Sean McNally: At least an AL East flag and as good a shot at the World Series as they usually have.

RB in DC: Probably an AL East title banner, and hopefully a World Series one as well. The team unquestionably has the talent to win a title; whether they have the combination of health and luck to actually win it remains to be seen. I’ll be rooting for it, though.