2006 Philadelphia Phillies

A rough framework was created at the BR Bullpen and the preview was written as a group by various Phillie Phollowers. For all we know, Pat Gillick added some insights. After the initial input, I read through the final version, did some edits, added some comments and purtied it up a little for BTF. Only maybe 1/3rd of the words are mine, though it runs under my byline. You can actually see the process this took. To see the essay's history of changes go here. To update and add new insights go here and click edit. Big Thanks to PhillyBooster and the other contributors. We should go to a game this summer and I'll buy you a beer.

===2005===

As you likely know, the Phillies finished two games back of the Braves and one game back of the pennant-winning Houston Astros with an 88-74 record, their best since 1993. The Astros' ascension proved particularly painful for Phillies fans, who watched their team lose six out of six games to the eventual NL champs (one particularly scarring game involved a ninth-inning David Bell throwing error that lead to Billy Wagner coughing up a home run to Craig Biggio, an event that was a GIDP and a back spasm short of perfectly summarizing Bell's tenure in Philadelphia).

No matter how hard they try (often a matter of contention in Philadelphia), the Phillies can't get up over 90 wins. They've won 86, 80, 86, 86, and now 88 games over the last five years. 2004's slightly above average season resulted in the firing of firebrand manager Larry Bowa and the hiring of player favorite Charlie "Cholly" Manuel, while 2005's slightly above average season resulted in the firing of GM Ed Wade and the hiring of Pat Gillick, late of the Seattle Mariners.

====What went right in 2005====

Ryan Howard finally found PT and proved his worth. While many fans clamored for the Phillies to trade Howard after a 2004 season that saw him club 48 HRs between AA, AAA and the Majors (as he was blocked by Jim Thome at 1st) keeping him in the organizational fold ultimately proved clairvoyant, as Thome succumbed to injuries in 2005 (of course, this likely had less to do with any particular amount of foresight on Ed Wade's part, and more to do with a general organizational philosophy in favor of letting young and promising players rot on the bench or in sub-optimal roles. For more, see Madson, Ryan; Polanco, Placido; and Gavin Floyd vs. Paul Abbott; and Utley, Chase). In any event, Howard stepped in, played spectacularly down the stretch and garnered Rookie of the Year honors. The sky's the limit in terms of potential, and while a Sophomore Slump remains a possibility, a sizzling March has many primed and expecting great things from Howard in 2006.

Brett Myers converted all his talk into a very good season, based on the addition of a cutter which got him tons of Ks. Always competitive, always emotional, and (usually) in possession of excellent stuff, Myers finally had the season many were hoping for after he outdueled Mark Prior in his first Major League start. Affectionately known as "Meathead" on certain Internet Boards, Myers' short temper and combative attitude (not to mention boxing experience) make him, in many ways, close to the consummate Philadelphia athlete. Maintaining the progress he made last year likely makes him the Phillies best starter; a step forward would catapult him into a realm of pitching talent that Philadelphia has not seen since Curt Schilling.

Chase Utley finally got a full-time job and was probably the best second baseman in the majors last year in my biased view. Pat Burrell provided a reasonable, if not grat return on his contract and overall the offense was strong finishing second in the NL in runs scored, though adjusting for park probably knocks them down a couple of pegs.

An ordinary (if ERA+ is to be believed the Phillies were the fifth best staff in the league) pitching staff was helped out by a strong overall defense, esp. Bell and good numbers for Utley and the CF platoon of Michaels and Lofton. They tied the Red Birds for second best DER in the league last year. This trend should continue to take heat off of the pitchers in 2006 with the addition of Rowand, Nunez, and Victorino.

====What went wrong in 2005====

* Ugueth Urbina -- This happened during the 2005 post-season, but it is never a good thing when your top setup man is under arrest for attempted murder with gasoline and a machete.

* David Bell -- By the end of April, 2005, it was clear that the Phillies had two above-average major-league starters at second base -- Placido Polanco and Chase Utley. Polanco had over 300 games at 3rd base on his major league resume, while Utley had proven in AAA that he was not cut out for the hot corner. The solution was obvious -- move Polanco to third, bench Bell, and proceed to the postseason. Instead, they traded Polanco for Ugueth Urbina, whose production could have easily been replicated in-house, and is currently playing for the Venezuelan Penal League.

* The Middle Relievers -- Coming out of Spring Training, the Phils bullpen consisted of Tim Worrell, Terry Adams, Rheal Cormier, and Pedro Liriano. Worrell went on the DL for mental health issues after blowing several 8th inning leads, Pedro Liriano and Terry Adams were ineffective and demoted to Scranton, while Rheal Cormier limped along with an ERA around 6.00 for the whole season. Giving GM Ed Wade an ineffective bullpen was like leaving a kid unattended in a candy store. Sickness ensues. (see, Polanco for Urbina trade, above).

* Jim Thome's Injury -- Not that it happened, since Ryan Howard filled the hole without missing a beat, but that it took so long to diagnose. A notoriously slow starter, Thome's April struggles were not identified as a major problem until he had already accumulated 242 plate appearances of sub-par first base.

===Catcher===

*Mike Lieberthal. Currently Philadelphia's longest-tenured athlete, is well removed from hitting 31 HR (1999) as well as the very productive .313/.373/.453 line he posted in 2003. An aged and somewhat-overpaid catcher, the Phillies may actually be hard pressed to replace him when he as expected rides off into the sunset. Carlos Ruiz is likely the best in-house candidate, but he, alas, is no Saltymachamachia. His OPS+s over the last three years are 119, 100, and 91. That's a worrisome trend under the best of circumstances, but for a 34-year-old catcher with over 1000 games in his knees, that's extremely bad. While he was a perfectly good hitting catcher last year, he could collapse, and if he does that puts more pressure on his backup, who is …

*Sal Fasano. A career back-up catcher. If Lieberthal does fall apart, it could get ugly. 11 homers in 160 ABs with the Orioles last year earned him the title "little bit of pop." Never mind the fact that those 160 ABs produced only 9 walks, or that he hadn't seen the major leagues since one plate appearance in 2002. Sal replaces 38-year-old erstwhile Phillies backup Todd Pratt, who signed a 1-year deal with the Braves (meaning a 30/30 season is no doubt in short order). Also of note is that Fasano moves to the front of pack for all-star fu manchu.

===First Base===

*Ryan Howard has been hitting home runs at a rate of three home runs for every two at bats this spring and looks ready for a monster season. He has always reminded me a bit of David Ortiz. He'll be scrutinized this year to see how he deals with lefties, as a .148 BA (.421 OPS) in 61 ABs have led some to worry that he's got a fatal flaw that can be exploited. I have no idea what his first base defense is like. The Fielding Bible apparently has him near the top of the heap, but that certainly goes against his body type. One other thing to keep in mind before declaring him the next Fred Luderus (Philadelphia's games leader at first base) is his age. After too many years in the minors he will be entering his age 26 year with just 351 major league at bats.

===Second Base===

*Utley for MVP. Although the story of Chase Utley and the Phillies has a happy ending, it is worth remembering how unnececssarily convoluted his road to success was. At the start of 2005, the Phillies faced a daily dilemma after Placido Polanco unexpectedly accepted arbitration: how to split Bell, Utley and Polanco between 2B and 3B. A more rational organization, or at least one with more intestinal fortitude, might have simply gone with the arrangement that gave them the best chance to win - Utley at second, Polanco at third, and Bell squarely on the bench. Instead, the Phillies embarked on a torturous game of musical chairs, before Ed Wade succumbed to the inevitable and traded for a middle reliever (Ugueth Urbina, who went on to blow six saves down the stretch before taking the express train to crazy town during the off-season) dealing Polanco to the Tigers. Polanco went on to hit .338, while David Bell mustered a lusty .200 against righthanders on the season (more on him later).

What can we expect from Utley in 2006? 30 HR, 100 RBI, 100 R, 20 SB and a .400 OBP don't seem out of the question. Production like that, combined with (by most accounts) very good defense, would make an excellent case again for Utley as the best second baseman in the majors and a potential MVP candidate. As with Howard, keep in mind that he enters his age 27 season with just 944 career at bats.

===Shortstop===

*Jimmy Rollins (J-Roll) -- Going into 2006, the only issue will be "the streak" (currently at 36 games), which will almost certainly end within the first week of the year. After that, the question will be whether his play will justify his five-year/$40m contract, or whether he was simply paid to continue to be the face of the Phillies in its ad campaigns. With all his experience, it's easy to forget that Rollins is only a month older than Chase Utley, and still has plenty of time to have a breakout season (while also having plenty of time to go Cristian Guzman, too). I'm not a big fan of the MVP voting results, and I know that making comments about rankings down ballot is a bit tedious, but is a hitting streak so important that Rollins finishes tenth three slots ahead of Chase Utley?

*A-Gone (Alex Gonzalez, no, the other one) - You want to know how important he is to his teams? His ESPN player page still shows him wearing a Cubs hat. The Phillies are the fourth team he's played on since then.

===Third Base===

*David Bell -- Bell's continuing back problems have kept him out of Major League Spring Training camp for the most part, and it appears unlikely he'll be ready by opening day. While in a vacuum many would not see this as a problem, it is unclear that his backups will perform significantly better. My scoresheet team has Bell as our starting third baseman. My wife cackled wildly when I told her that. It is going to be one of those years on the Beechhurst Beguilers, at least until Alex Gordon comes up.

*Abraham Nunez -- Much like Alex Gonzalez, most Phillies fans aren't exactly sure with Abraham Nunez they have signed. Is it the guy from St. Louis and Pittsburgh, or that guy from Florida? That fact that the Phils haves signed the better Abraham Nunez, however, does not mean that he is an upgrade from David Bell.

*Tomas Perez -- Tomas Perez may be a great "club house guy", always ready for a good pie-in-the-face trick, but it didn't warrant giving a replacement level back-up a multi-year deal. This Spring, he has passed through waivers, with no team willing to pay $700K for an interchangeable part. He will either be traded, released, or start the season as one of the highest paid Red Barons in Scranton.

===Outfield===

*Pat Burrell - Don't look now, but Pat Burrell's had two straight years of offensive progress. He's a good bet to at least maintain his previous level of offensive performance, and if he's ever going to live up to the potential he showed during the last mid-term elections, now would be the time. Back on the MVP vote. Burrell finished 7th in 2005. In 2002, his OPS+ was 149 in more plate appearances (compared to 125 this year) and he finished 14th.

*Bobby Abreu - Abreu is hated by the talk-radio crowd as a non-hustler and defensive liability. Irrespective of the sabremetric defensive stats and Gold Glove, it is clear that Abreu has difficulty coming in and going back on the ball. How it effects his zone rating is irrelevant, as he simply looks ugly doing it. He turned 31 last year, and his OPS+ dropped by 26 points to its lowest mark since he first became a starter. He also was considerably worse in the second half last year. He was on the block repeatedly during the off-season as the only non-young player even remotely tradeable. Nobody offered much for the remaining two years and $30m on his contract.

*Aaron Rowand - Aquired from the White Sox in the big Thome trade, much of Rowand's value lies in his defensive play in CF. The Phillies pitching staff contains three flyballers who started at least 13 games last year, which would seem to bode well. But, one of them (Wolf) is on the DL, and another (Tejada) really isn't a starter and was demoted to start the season, and Ryan Franklin was sent to bullpen. Meanwhile Myers, Lieber, Gavin Floyd, and especially Lidle and Ryan Madson are groundball pitchers, so how much he helps is up for debate. That said, my observational belief is that CBP plays very large in centerfield and tight down the lines, so a grade A flycatcher in center won't hurt. Offensively, he appears unlikely to repeat the 2004 season (.310/.361/.544), and really needs to get his OBP up over .350 (career .337) to help the offense in a meaningful way.

*Victorino -- Shane Victorino was the International League Player of the Year in 2005, putting up a .911 OPS with solid, if unspectacular defense. The trade of Jason Michaels promotes his from fifth to fourth outfielder, and the team shouldn't lose a step in the process. Victorino is on pace to become the greatest hitter in Major League history to be born in Hawaii (current competition, Mike Lum, Lenn Sakata, and Benny Agbayani).

===Starting Rotation===

While Lieber is nominally the ace, that could change if Myers maintains his consistency for another year. In reality, Lieber is the probably the first-among-equals on an underrated pitching staff that starts off weak (compared to other staff aces), but really doesn't go down much from there. It is also a deep staff, with Ryan Franklin and Robinson Tejeda available to jump in if one of the five falter, and a stocked rotation in Reading, some of whom may be only a year or so away.

"Park factor" is an issue, with home runs (more than runs overall) inflated, especially compared to the spacious parks populating the rest of the NL East, but it is not impossible to project all of the starter with an ERA+ between 100 and 110.

*Jon Lieber -- When healthy, he's a poor man's Don Sutton. Ten years with at least 100 IP, and he's never had an ERA+ under 96, and never higher than 119. Only twice has it been higher than 109, and he only tossed 107 innings in one of those years. Can this dictionary defintion of a good innings eater keep it up at age 36? Well, his K-rate was the best it's been since the Clinton administration last year, his K/W rate remains fantastic, and though he does give up his share of gopher balls, with strong up-the-middle defense, he should provide another solid 200+ innings.

*Myers - Took the big step forward last year, and should continue forward. There is one concern, though. He's still young and he threw about 400 more pitches than in any previous season. If you look at the records of practically any young pitcher you like in history, and they had some bumps on the way to success.

*Lidle - Exhibit A in the argument for Rick Peterson as a brillant pitching coach, as he has yet to have a really good season away from the ex-Athletic instructor. Has Lidle finally found a home in Philly? If he lasts the year, it will be the first time this southpaw's lasted beyond two years with any club. He managed to pull off a 100 ERA+, but gave up a sizable number of unearned runs. If he'd allowed UER at the same proportion to all runs as his teammates, his ERA would've gone up to 4.78. Lidle is a control pitcher who needs to rely on his defense, and the Phillies had one of the best Defensive Efficiency Ratings in the game last year, and adding Rowand to the defense will only help that. He'll be a servicable back-of-the-rotation innings eater. A team's number three starter is generally only a league average pitcher, and with this offense that's all the Phillies need.

*Gavin Floyd -- After getting a starter spot out of last year's Spring Training, and proceeding to go Ankiel on the mound (both in Philadelphia and in Scranton, where his ERA was over 6.00), Floyd has performed well in Spring Training this year, and was announced as the fifth starter the final week of Spring Training, pushing Ryan Franklin to the bullpen.

*Ryan Madson -- Madson had not appeared in a game in relief since Rookie Ball in 1998 when he was promoted to Philadelphia as a top pitching prospect. While usually I support breaking in pitchers in long relief, Madson was a victim of his own success -- becoming too valuable to move into the rotation. He was also the victim of his sole failure -- a disastrous lone start in 2004. An extra 100 or so innings of Ryan Madson per year will certainly be a help to the Phillies' pitching staff. The epitome of lanky, Madson throws a very heavy ball leading to a 1.8 to 1 groundball-to-flyball ratio and nearly 8 strikeouts per inning. I wouldn't be shocked to see a good Kevin Brown or Derek Lowe season out of him very soon, especially pitching in front of this defense.

Ryan Franklin - What good things can you say about a man who went 8-15 with an ERA over 5 last year? Well, he did only have two unearned runs, so he's better than that ERA gives him credit for. He had horrible run support in the first half last year, so he's better than his W/L record. But he's still not good. He's pretty similar (though inferior) to Cory Lidle actually, except that he gives up flyballs, not grounders. He'll give up a bunch of long balls, but he should be a servicable back-of-the-rotation starter/long-man.

*Randy Wolf (on DL) - It would take the marketers who brought you "Weapons of Mass Destruction-Related Program Activities" to spin gold out of Wolf's injury, and the Phillies just don't have that kind of creativity. It is theoretically possible that Wolf could make a dramatic comeback in August, picking up the slack after Ryan Franklin and Cory Lidle have pitched themselves out of the rotation. What is far more likely, however is that whatever baseball Wolf manages to get his elbow around this year will be of the purely strength and stamina-building variety, and will not carry the Phillies to the promised land. The only question that remains, then, is just how the Phillies will spend Wolf's $9 million salary in 2007?

===Relief Corp===

*Tom Gordon -- By most measures Billy Wagner formed his own tier. Clearly worse that Mariano Rivera and the Hall of Famers, but clearly better than the "average" ace closer. As a one-of-a-kind, he was essentially irreplaceable, even by himself, as it was unlikely that a long term deal would yield his more of his career ERA+ of 180 (let alone his ERA+ of 300 in 2005). With limited options, Gordon was a fine choice for a replacement, although he is certainly old.

*Arthur Rhodes. By some accounts, the Phillies were angling for Rafael Betancourt in exchange for Jason Michaels, but settled for Rhodes. While Michaels for Rhodes looks like a steal for Cleveland in the abstract, the fallout is that Victorino replaces Michaels with minimal loss of production, and Madson moves to the rotation, so the team is improved, even if the trade itself is iffy. Rhodes is the perfect cover-your-ass pickup: a veteran, with a long history in the setup role and familiarity for Gillick, his acquisition is unlikely to get anyone in the front office fired, no matter how he performs. While his upside isn't tremendous, he was good when healthy last year (43 Ks in 43 IP with an ERA+ of 197) and if his knees don't give him trouble again (and Manuel doesn't overuse him) it's quite possible that he will outproduce Urbina, who faded significantly down the stretch last season.

*Rheal Cormier. Ever see that Star Trek episode when the Enterprise was trapped in the endless time loop? We feel like that sometimes. Say it with us now, "A CAREER YEAR BY A 36-YEAR-OLD MIDDLE RELIEVER IS NOT A RELIABLE PREDICTOR OF FUTURE PERFORMANCE." 2003 was such a year for Cormier, 38, earning him a payday from Ed Wade, who of course never met an aging middle reliever he didn't like. The 242 ERA+ that Cormier posted that year leveled off at a respectable 123 in 2004, before crashing down to 77 during a horrendous and injury-plagued 2005. His performance was in no way helped by Manuel's dogged insistence on sending Cormier out during high-leverage situations, no matter how many leads he coughed up. The 2.5 million ducats the Phillies will give him in 2006 should help take away the sting.

*Aaron Fultz - About to meet gravity. After five consecutive middling seasons with three different team, Fultz broke out last year allowing less than a baserunner an inning, and an ERA near 2. He did it by allowing hitters to a .207 AVG on balls in play. His career mark (including last year) is .291. Check please.

*Geoff Geary -- Geary was a middling-prospect pitcher whose numbers were always good enough, but who was always a little too old for his level. He experienced his first AAA success at age 26, and improved at age 27 to an ERA of 2.16, earning him some major league time. As a 30 year old, he's clearly too good from Scranton, but has yet to translate that into consistent major league success, and will probably spend another year hovering between replacement-level and average. At just six-foot, 178 pounds, watching Geary come in from the bullpen is bit like watching Robert Reich coming into testify before Congress.

*Rob Tejada -- A "B Prospect" coming up through the system, he got a lot of attention as a fill-in starter in 2005, having great success in a few limited starts. He's not as good as he was in 2005, but probably isn't as bad as his Spring 2006 either. At this point, he will start the season in Scranton, giving him plenty of innings for future fill-in duty. Gone to the Rangers for Dellucci.

*Ricardo Rodriguez. What price, Vicente Padilla? Ricardo Rodriguez, apparently, is the answer, as the Phillies traded Padilla for him straight-up. Rumors abound about why the inconsistent but talented (and affordable) Padilla was unceremoniously shipped out of town, however, most of these rumors involve variations on a drinking problem, as well as reports out of his native Nicaragua that Padilla may have, on several occasions, "played roosters clandestinely." Rodriguez was released in the last week of spring training. So in actuality, they traded him for nothing.

*Chris Booker -- A Rule 5 pickup who has been hampered by injuries this Spring, and poor performance when he was on the mound. The bullpen is likely not deep enough to hide a player who can't be used for the season, but a trip to the DL to start the season will give the Phils more time to decide.

===On the Farm===

Not much hear or see here, please move along.

The Phillies had the 68th (Cole Hamels, this rating is a gift as Hamels was injured most of last year) and 73rd (Gio Gonzalez) best prospects according to Baseball America. Not a good haul and if you weight the rankings, they are pro

*Greg Golson -- Toolsy outfielder who did very little in the Sally last year. Lots of tools and a first round pick, so he'll get as many chances as Marlon Byrd did.

* The Reading Rotation -- The Reading Phillies will put out pitching staff this year of Dan Haigwood, Gio Gonzalez, Cole Hamels, and Scott Mathieson, four names who should all arguable be among the Phil's top prospects. (Hamels will start off the year in Clearwater until the weather warms up, due to his injury status, and there is talk in the organization of him skipping AA and moving straight to AAA, depending on his health and how he performs). Haigwood and Gonzalez are the minor league booty from the Thome Trade.

*Michael Bourn -- lead-off CF, lost a lot of walks in the move to AA last year, still being pushed to AAA. Thome deal reaps Gonzalez and Haigwood, instantly a top 3 and top 12 prospect, respectively, for this organization

Even though the Phillies do appear to have pretty slim pickings, any organization that has produced Madson, Howard, and Utley is short order has done all right through its farm system.

===Field Manager===

Charlie Manuel was blasted in the press when the Phillies got off to a slow start (10-14 in April), but unlike Phillies teams of recent years, they actually were playing their best ball in August and September going 33-23 down the stretch. I just went to find stats to back up this impression, and it is flat out wrong. The Phillies under Bowa actually played very well down the stretch including several 18-win Septembers (though a 2-7 finish in 2003 killed their wildcard hopes for that year). Guess I can't make the point that Bowa flogged them too much too early. Manuel has a very easy demeanor with the players and they seem to like that. I don't see him as a tactical genius. He falls squarely in the people person camp as a manager.

===Front Office===

"Retail" Ed Wade never saw a sticker price he wouldn't pay. Some in the Philadelphia area believe that the Phillies are a cheap organization. However their payroll has been near the top of the NL since the new park opened. Wade just was never very good at spreading his resources around. The Phillies have a good number of moderately above average players, but they pay them all what they are worth in a good season. Aside from the young guys there aren't any important players you would say are exceeding expectations or are making less than they are worth.

Pat Gillick came in and basically found there was nothing he could do. No one wanted the Phillies corner outfielders or third baseman. He got as much as he could for Thome, dumped Padilla, and let Billy Wagner walk. I don't know if he was trying to insulate himself from blame or motivate the team, but he essentially said they weren't good enough to win at the start of the year. An interesting gambit, but I'm not sure that it will work.

I'm not sure what I would have done in hindsight. Trading Polanco was a costly error, and I think they will regret signing Rollins to a big contract just like they probably regret signing Burrell, Wolf, Lieberthal, and Bell to theirs. If your farm system isn't producing you have to be shrewd with the waiver wire, trades and free agent signings. The Phillies haven't done that.

===Citizen's Bank Park===

CBP has been derided as Coors West since it opened. It is true that it is a bit cozy down the lines and it does give up a few cheap home runs. Overall, the park was a slight hitter's park in 2004 and a big hitter's park in 2005. For 2006, they have removed the first few rows in left field (don't worry the flower boxes remain), which should reduce the number of pop fly home runs. One issue that I don't think gets enough play in the park factor issue is the other parks in the division. With the unbalanced schedule the Phillies play about forty road games in Shea, Pro Player, RFK, and Turner. Additionally, during interleague play they hosted the Red Sox and Rangers and traveled to Oakland and Seattle. Basically the deck was stacked for a high park factor. I suspect it will play more normally this year.

===Doug Glanville===

The Phillies hosted Doug Glanville day in 2005. Glanville, who briefly was in Yankees camp last spring, called it quits as a Phillie. Glanville spent the 2004-2005 off-season in Africa on an engineering project with his Penn undergraduate advisor. I don't know what the future holds for Glanville, but I know that my wife, Sylvia, will miss reading stories about him.

===Overall Assessment===

Well, the offense still looks fantastic. For every guy looking to fall back (Lieberthal, Abreu), there's another good candidate to rise up a notch (Howard, Burrell, Utley). It the phront office can get its head out of tuckus it can hopefully trade for an actual third baseman to round out the offense. The offense will get them in the hunt, and it's the job of the pitchers to keep them there.

Pitching's always a tricky issue to count on for any team (just ask your friendly local neighborhood Cubs fan) but especially so for the Phillies. One pitcher is unproven in the bigs. Another has only had one good year, and if his arm's still recovering from last year, he might fall back. Two of their starters are unusually dependent on their defense to save them on balls in play. That means their most reliable bet in the rotation is a 36-year-old who missed all of 2003. Still, the defense should hold up for those that need it, Lieber is a horse, and Myers could be the real deal. Betting against Bobby Cox and the Braves is a fool's game, but betting against this Phillies team in the post-Mazzone era isn't wise either. They're a good shot for either the division or wild card.

I'll edge them up one win to 89-73 and once again one game out.

2006 ZiPS Projections - Philadelphia Phillies

Name               P     G   AB    R    H  2B  3B  HR  RBI   BB    K  SB  CS   AVG   OBP   SLG 
Abreu*             rf  161  586   99  170  42   1  23   93  124  134  27  10  .290  .415  .483 
Howard*            1b  152  533   81  150  29   1  34   98   60  190   1   1  .281  .357  .531 
Utley*             2b  146  533   84  150  36   4  26   91   65  103  12   4  .281  .365  .510 
Burrell            lf  150  552   72  148  28   1  29   95   99  160   0   0  .268  .379  .480 
Rowand             cf  151  525   80  151  33   3  14   72   33  100  14   5  .288  .346  .442 
Rollins#           ss  162  701  110  197  42   9  14   79   65   87  33  10  .281  .342  .427 
Lieberthal         c   124  439   46  115  26   0  13   56   37   55   0   1  .262  .332  .410 
Victorino#         lf  130  495   83  135  17   5  12   58   41   85  13  11  .273  .332  .400 
Wathan             c    81  248   35   63  10   0   6   30   20   45   1   2  .254  .339  .367 
Coste              c   114  415   50  109  22   1  11   52   26   73   2   2  .263  .315  .400 
Gonzalez           3b  116  390   49   98  23   1  12   52   32   96   2   2  .251  .311  .408 
Kata#              2b  113  413   53  113  23   4   6   42   25   66   3   3  .274  .316  .392 
Nunez#             3b  131  359   50  100  12   2   4   36   32   57   1   2  .279  .337  .357 
Bell               3b  143  525   52  130  29   1  12   61   52   74   0   1  .248  .319  .375 
Garrett#           rf  134  505   68  132  25   2  13   63   34  112  12   8  .261  .312  .396 
Bergeron*          cf  102  378   51  105  14   4   3   31   31   71   9   7  .278  .332  .360 
Kroeger*           rf  138  475   70  120  30   2  14   57   25  117   9   3  .253  .295  .413 
Sandoval           ss  125  481   61  134  27   1   6   48   39   65  13  14  .279  .335  .376 
Scales#            2b  112  337   39   80  18   2   6   38   39   86   5   3  .237  .323  .356 
Bourn*             cf  129  492   79  125  15   6   5   44   50  124  32   9  .254  .324  .339 
Roberson           cf  130  485   70  126  18   4   9   49   32  114  22  14  .260  .315  .369 
Thurston*          2b  132  454   65  123  17   3   8   53   22   58   5   8  .271  .309  .374 
Ruiz               c    99  337   39   84  17   4   7   36   21   44   4   4  .249  .297  .386 
Fasano             c    75  207   23   45   7   0  11   34   10   49   0   0  .217  .265  .411 
Perez#             3b  100  208   23   49  13   1   3   22   16   43   0   1  .236  .291  .351 

Name                 W   L    ERA   G  GS     INN    H   ER  HR   BB    K 
Flash                8   3   3.26  77   0    80.0   60   29   6   32   83 
Madson               7   4   3.64  69   0    84.0   75   34   9   22   74 
Rhodes*              3   2   3.68  49   0    44.0   37   18   4   18   45 
Geary                4   3   3.81  51   1    78.0   73   33   7   24   61 
Fultz*               3   2   3.88  61   0    65.0   57   28   7   24   49 
Santana              5   4   4.04  44   0    49.0   40   22   5   23   53 
Cormier*             5   3   4.04  69   0    69.0   64   31   7   23   47 
Lieber              14  13   4.17  32  32   205.0  213   95  29   35  133 
Lopez                4   4   4.20  58   0    75.0   68   35  12   23   74 
Myers               12  10   4.21  33  33   201.0  188   94  27   65  178 
Lidle               13  12   4.36  32  32   198.0  205   96  22   54  120 
Booker               4   5   4.50  52   0    60.0   50   30   6   35   69 
Wolf*                8   8   4.53  23  23   143.0  139   72  20   49  114 
Hernandez            5   6   4.83  47   1    69.0   68   37   8   32   58 
Tejeda               6   8   4.85  29  21   128.0  118   69  15   69  111 
Hamels*              1   2   5.00   6   6    27.0   25   15   3   17   24 
Rodriguez            5   8   5.02  21  19   113.0  121   63  20   38   60 
Franklin             8  14   5.14  32  31   198.0  214  113  32   66  102 
Floyd                7  11   5.22  31  28   169.0  175   98  20   83  113 
Condrey              5  10   5.27  25  24   135.0  157   79  24   33   65 
Sanches              3   4   5.29  47   2    80.0   84   47  16   28   63 
Haigwood*            6  10   5.41  24  24   133.0  134   80  18   73  107 
Cameron              4   7   5.63  45   7    96.0   95   60  17   52   80 
Brito*               4   8   5.73  37  16   110.0  117   70  20   53   79 
Lee                  3   6   5.80  27  15   104.0  114   67  22   42   74 
Mathieson            3  10   6.11  24  24   131.0  156   89  28   49   76 
Pratt*               3   7   6.20  34  16   103.0  101   71  17   79  100 
Bucktrot             2   8   6.94  16  16    83.0  102   64  21   39   41 
Segovia              3  15   6.98  27  27   147.0  196  114  37   52   50 

Disclaimer:  ZiPS projections are computer-based projections of performance.  
Performances have not been allocated to predicted playing time in the majors - 
many of the players listed above are unlikely to play in the majors at all in 2006.  
ZiPS is projecting equivalent production - a .240 ZiPS projection may end up 
being .280 in AAA or .300 in AA, for example.  Whether or not a player will play 
is one of many non-statistical factors one has to take into account when predicting 
the future.