2006 San Diego Padres

For the first time since 1991-1992, San Diego posted consecutive winning seasons and despite taking considerable grief from the media and many of their fans, the Padres won the NL West. They were outscored by 42 runs, giving them a Pythagorean won-loss of 77-85. Since divisional play began in 1969, five teams have won their division with a negative run differential. Only the 1994 Texas Rangers, at -84 runs, had a worse differential. There were no playoffs that year due to a strike, so the Padres have the worst Pythagorean record of any team ever to reach the postseason. They are also the only playoff team with a negative run differential not to win the World Series (1987 Twins) or be knocked off by the eventual World Series winner (1984 Royals, 1997 Giants).

In addition to winning the division, the Padres had many individual highlights. Righthander Jake Peavy followed up his brilliant 2004 season by leading the league in strikeouts. Right fielder Brian Giles rebounded from a subpar performance to become an offensive dynamo once again. And reliever Scott Linebrink quietly continued his dominance.

There were some pleasant surprises (Dave Roberts, Pedro Astacio, Clay Hensley, Rudy Seanez) and some not so pleasant surprises (Woody Williams, Sean Burroughs). And, as with all the other teams in the NL West, there were plenty of injuries. The only players who managed to stay healthy all year were Giles, Linebrink, Brian Lawrence, and Trevor Hoffman.

Not that anyone is going to be satisfied with 82 victories, but the goal at the start of spring training is to reach the playoffs. The Padres achieved that goal, and so on balance, their season was a success. That said, the massive overhaul of this winter demonstrates the organization's understanding that last year wasn't good enough. Whether the changes the Padres have made this off-season actually improve the club remains to be seen. But at the very least, nobody was content to rest on the laurels of a division championship.

Off-season Moves

Incoming

OK, take a deep breath: RHP Jon Adkins, RHP Jason Anderson, RHP Bobby Basham, RHP Kenny Baugh, RHP Dewon Brazelton, RHP Doug Brocail, LHP Alan Embree, LHP Shawn Estes, RHP Seth Etherton, RHP Eric Junge, RHP Aquilino Lopez, RHP Chris Young, C Pete LaForest, C Doug Mirabelli, C Mike Piazza, INF Mark Bellhorn, INF Geoff Blum, INF Vinny Castilla, INF Adrian Gonzalez, INF Justin Leone, INF Walter Young, OF Mike Cameron, OF Jack Cust, OF Terrmel Sledge, OF Eric Valent.

Outgoing

One more deep breath: RHP Pedro Astacio, RHP Adam Eaton, LHP Chris Hammond, RHP Brian Lawrence, RHP Akinori Otsuka, RHP Chris Oxspring, RHP Rudy Seanez, C Ramón Hernandez, C Miguel Olivo, C David Ross, INF Sean Burroughs, INF Robert Fick, INF Damian Jackson, INF Mark Loretta, INF Joe Randa, INF Mark Sweeney, OF Xavier Nady.

Ballpark

Moved fence in right center from 411 feet to 402 feet.

Lineup

1. Dave Roberts, LF. Many observers, myself included, felt that Kevin Towers overpaid in acquiring the journeyman outfielder from the Boston Red Sox. However, Roberts made Towers look like a genius by improbably establishing career highs in most offensive categories on his return to San Diego at age 33. His OBP of .356 was respectable, if not great, for a leadoff hitter. And his .428 SLG was far higher than anyone could have imagined. On the downside, Roberts stole just 23 bases at a 66% success rate, and he was overmatched trying to cover the spacious center field at Petco Park. Plagued by nagging injuries, as he has been throughout his career, Roberts was limited to 115 games. But when healthy, he provided a surprising spark at the top of the order. Roberts also participated in one of the most unlikely events of 2005, homering in the sixth inning of the June 19 game at Minnesota against defending Cy Young award winner Johan Santana. The jury is still out on which was most stunning that day: Roberts' homer or the fact that it helped lead to Darrell May's only victory of the season.

2. Mike Cameron, CF. Former Mets right fielder returns to his natural position and to the scene of a horrendous collision that ended his season last August. The medical reports are good, and Cameron should help improve an outfield defense that struggled with Petco Park's deep alleys in 2005. On offense, Cameron provides some pop from the right side and is a proficient base stealer (79% success rate for his career in just shy of 300 attempts). The downsides are that he doesn't make as much contact as you'd like to see out of your number two hitter and that his new home park has suppressed homers by right-handed hitters more than any other in the big leagues over the past two seasons.

3. Brian Giles, RF. Last year, I said that "if he can get back to the.300/.400/.500 levels that used to be the norm, Giles will be a valuable member of the lineup." He hit.301/.423/.483. At age 34, Giles hit just 15 home runs, a career low over a full season. Although the power isn't what it once was, he still managed to knock 61 extra-base hits. Giles also led the major leagues with 119 walks, and generally served as the catalyst for the Padres offense. In right field, he compensates for mediocre speed and arm strength by getting good reads, playing the angles and Petco's troublesome right field corner well, and returning the ball to the infield quickly. Despite some off-season intrigue, the Padres were able to bring back Giles and lock him up through 2007, with an option for 2008. Much has been made of Giles' home/road splits; however, the most significant discrepancies in his numbers are batting average, walk rate, and home run rate. Since the Padres moved to Petco Park prior to the 2004 season, the percentage of his hits that have gone for extra bases is exactly the same both home and away: 36.8%.

4. Mike Piazza, C. After spending the past several seasons in New York, Piazza returns to the west coast. There is some sentiment that he no longer can handle the rigors of catching. On the other hand, he did catch more games in 2005 than last year's starter, Ramón Hernandez. Based on last season's numbers, it's difficult to tell which is which:

   PA	BA	OBP	SLG	ISO	XB/H	PA/HR	RC/27
   392	.290	.322	.450	.160	.308	32.7	5.21
   442	.251	.326	.452	.201	.420	23.3	5.13

   Granted, Piazza is seven years older, but it's interesting that one of these guys signed a one-year deal for $2 million, while the other signed a four-year deal for $27.5 million. The downsides of Piazza are that he cannot control the running game, which is nothing new, and that he isn't terribly durable, having missed 82 games over the past two seasons. Then again, Hernandez missed 114 games during that same period. With a decent backup catcher (Doug Mirabelli) in tow, the Padres shouldn't experience much, if any, drop-off at the position.

5. Ryan Klesko, 1B. Two years ago, Klesko's power disappeared and some folks expressed concern. Last season it returned, but at a cost. Although he doubled his home run output, his batting average dropped to a career low .248 and his OPS+ of 112 was the lowest since 1997 with the Braves. Unfortunately Klesko's body couldn't keep up with this power approach or with the demands of playing left field every day and he experienced a horrendous (.211/.328/.323) second-half slide. Returning to first base should help keep him healthy. And for all the grief Klesko took after hitting just nine homers in 2004, he actually was a pretty productive hitter that year. If he can return to the approach of working counts and hitting line drives into the gaps, Klesko's health and production may yet improve, which would be nice since his contract pretty well assures that he'll remain in San Diego all year.

6. Vinny Castilla, 3B. With the Mexican border just 20 minutes south of Petco Park, the trade for Castilla was a no-brainer. He is a folk hero in his native Mexico ― when the Padres and Rockies opened the 1999 season in Monterrey, pretty much the entire stadium was rooting for Colorado due to his presence. On offense, Castilla has been league average or worse for the past seven seasons, and there's no reason to expect that to change any time soon. On the other hand, he represents an upgrade over anything the Padres were able to stick out at third base last year. The batting average and on-base percentage will be low, but he'll pop a few home runs and make the plays he gets to on defense. In a perfect world, Sean Burroughs develops into the player we all thought he would become and the Padres don't waste two young arms (Travis Chick and Justin Germano) on 58 games of mediocrity (Joe Randa). In the real world, Castilla comes to town and helps fill seats without killing the team on the field. It may not be the most elegant solution, but it'll have to do.

7. Khalil Greene, SS. For grins, I ran Greene's numbers through Bill James' old Brock2 projection system. It has him breaking the 20-homer threshold for the first time this year and puts his career totals at .254/.313/.439 with 247 home runs in about 6500 at-bats. In other words, Jose Valentin. Back in the real world, his greatest contribution last year came on the evening of September 17. The Padres are down to the Washington Nationals, 5-0, with two out in the bottom of the ninth. After the home team is able to muster up a little rally and score a run to break the shutout, Greene steps up to the plate with the bases loaded against closer Chad Cordero. In a sequence that only happens in dreams, Greene hammers a 1-0 offering from Cordero over the left field fence to tie the game, and the Padres go on to win in extra innings. With his teammates jumping all over him at home plate after he finishes circling the bases, Greene never so much as cracks a smile.

8. Josh Barfield, 2B. The giveaway of incumbent second baseman Mark Loretta leaves the Padres with a potential gap at the keystone corner. Barfield appears to have won the starting job over veteran Mark Bellhorn, which is something of an upset. Since Bruce Bochy took the helm in 1995, he has managed 13 players who were age 26 or younger coming into a season, who had accumulated fewer than 500 career at bats prior to that season, and who finished with at least 200 at-bats in that season. Of those, only Brad Ausmus and Khalil Greene have been able to establish themselves as everyday major league players. Barfield will try to become the third. The son of former big-league slugger Jesse Barfield, he is a line drive hitter with gaps power ― think Orlando Hudson ― and has erased questions about his defense that surfaced earlier in his career. If he holds on to the job, Barfield is a candidate for Rookie of the Year honors.

Bench

Doug Mirabelli, acquired in the Mark Loretta "trade," backs up Piazza behind the dish. Pete LaForest has some big-league experience and will be at Triple-A Portland if needed.

The reserve infielders will be Geoff Blum and Eric Young, who return from last year's squad, and Mark Bellhorn, who was brought in to challenge Josh Barfield for the second base job. Blum could prove useful should the Padres find themselves in the unlikely position of playing extra innings in the World Series.

In the outfield, if he can stay healthy (and this spring he hasn't), Terrmel Sledge should be one of the backups. Sledge is a line drive type hitter with some speed and can play all three spots. The fifth outfielder will be minor-league walkmeister Jack Cust or Eric Valent, who had a really nice year with the Mets in 2004 but hasn't done anything before or since.

Rotation

1. Jake Peavy, RHP. After leading the NL in ERA in 2004, Peavy followed up by leading the league in strikeouts. Last year in this space I said that if he stayed healthy, he would get more than the zero Cy Young Award votes he received the year before. I was wrong. Over the past two seasons, Peavy has a lower ERA than any pitcher who has qualified for the title both of those years save Roger Clemens. Only Johan Santana and Randy Johnson have averaged more strikeouts per nine innings. And lest anyone think that Peavy is a product of Petco Park's pitcher-friendly environment, it's worth noting that his road ERA is a paltry 2.67 over that same period. Again, he trails only Clemens in that department. So, what does the future hold for Peavy? Health and voter permitting, maybe a Cy Young Award. Or at least a single vote.

2. Chris Young, RHP. Young came over from Texas in a deal that sent Adam Eaton and Akinori Otsuka to the Rangers. Like a can of Colt 45, he is tall, young, and cheap. He also throws strikes and gets hitters to put the ball in play, an approach that should serve him well in San Diego. Two former Padres, Rodrigo Lopez and Mike Maddux, show up on the list of Young's 10 most similar pitchers through age 26 for whatever that might be worth.

3. Shawn Estes, LHP. Among pitchers who have averaged 162 innings over the past 6 years, only Eric Milton (4.98) has a higher ERA than Estes (4.97). Oddly enough, both of them have winning records during that span. Estes was really good in 1997. He's left handed. He's walked 100+ batters all four times he's thrown enough innings to qualify for the ERA title. He also no longer gets to face the Padres, against whom he somehow has a 3.52 ERA in 143 career innings. Did I mention he was really good in 1997?

4. Chan Ho Park, RHP. Absolutely, without question a better pitcher than Phil Nevin. I don't want to get carried away, because Park has been so bad for so long, but the guy showed some stuff at the World Baseball Classic. It may be a mirage, but then again, stranger things have happened. Shawn Estes is #10 on his list of most similar pitchers through age 32. Rick Sutcliffe is #7. There is no truth to the rumor that the Padres are trying to talk Sutcliffe out of retirement.

5. Dewon Brazelton/Woody Williams, RHP. This has become one of the more interesting spring training battles. Williams is the veteran with the big contract, Brazelton is the former top prospect who came over from Tampa Bay in a swap of disappointments. Kevin Towers and other Padres staffers rave about Brazelton's change-up. The downside, of course, is a 5.98 ERA over 253 career innings. If nothing else, it puts him in good company with Estes and Park. As for Williams, he had a career worst 79 ERA+ on returning to San Diego. In a bizarre coincidence, Cal McLish, who pitched from 1944 to 1964, is Brazelton's #2 most similar pitcher through age 25 and Williams' #5 most similar pitcher through age 38. What does this tell us? Simple: I need to get a life.

Bullpen

1. Trevor Hoffman, RHP. After some tense moments, Hoffman decided to stay with the Padres to continue his pursuit of Lee Smith's all-time saves record. He isn't the dominant force he once was and he hasn't thrown as many as 60 innings since 2001, but Hoffman remains one of the most efficient pitchers in baseball, requiring just 3.48 pitches per plate appearance in 2005. Expect more Hells Bells, nasty change-ups, and called third strikes on 87-mph fastballs right down the middle.

2. Scott Linebrink, RHP. Since joining the Padres, Linebrink has posted a 2.23 ERA over 189 appearances. Among big-league pitchers who have worked 200 or more innings during that same period, only the Yankees' Mariano Rivera and the Angels' Francisco Rodriguez have lower ERAs. Claimed off waivers in May 2003, Linebrink is virtually unknown outside of San Diego but has become one of the most consistent relievers in baseball and could step in and close games should something happen to Hoffman.

3. Clay Hensley, RHP. Like Linebrink, Hensley is a great example of how clubs can find solid contributors while operating on a tight budget. Hensley came over in a 2003 trade with the Giants for generic middle reliever Matt Herges. Primarily a starter in the minors, Hensley burst onto the scene last summer and quickly assumed a key setup role for the Padres. He surrendered just six extra base hits in 189 plate appearances and held right-handers to a silly .103/.141/.153 line in 78 at-bats. The jury is still out on whether Hensley will be able to enjoy sustained success, but the early returns are promising.

4. Alan Embree, LHP. Another member of the "Hey, I was good in 1997" club that seems to have assembled among the Padres pitching staff. How can he only be 36 years old?

5. Andy Ashby/Doug Brocail/Scott Cassidy/Eric Junge/Aquilino Lopez/Brian Sweeney RHP. What can I say ― sometimes you get Chris Hammond and Rudy Seanez, sometimes you get Mike Matthews and Luther Hackman. That's middle relievers for you. One of Brazelton, Park, or Williams could end up here as well.

Down on the Farm

Grady Fuson has the task of rebuilding a largely depleted system. With guys like Khalil Greene and Jake Peavy established in San Diego, and the likes of Sean Burroughs and Xavier Nady shipped off elsewhere, the cupboard has grown very dry. Taking raw high school shortstop Matt Bush with the first pick overall in 2004 over polished college players such as Stephen Drew, Jered Weaver, and Justin Verlander didn't help matters either. But last year's draft was one of the Padres' best in recent years and it could start paying dividends as early as this season, in the form of RHP Cesar Carrillo.

Other top prospects include C George Kottaras, who will start the year at Double-A Mobile and be in line to take over for Piazza in 2007; 1B Adrian Gonzalez, who draws comparisons to ex-Padre Wally Joyner and who will get a chance to play every day at Triple-A while San Diego tries to find a taker for Klesko and his salary; OF Ben Johnson, who saw some time with the big club down the stretch last season but who is 25 years and in danger of becoming the new Nady (talented, a bit old, no defined role); OF Paul McAnulty, another who made it to San Diego last summer; and OF Freddy Guzman, a slap-hitting speedster who missed all of 2005 due to an elbow injury. Any of these guys could see material time with the Padres this season, as could former first-round pick RHP Tim Stauffer, who spent much of last season in the San Diego rotation.

More fruits of last June's draft that are further away include 3B Chase Headley, C Nick Hundley, and LHP Cesar Ramos. And there's always the intriguing (6'6", 290 lbs) 1B/OF Kyle Blanks. None of these guys has made it out of Class A, so don't expect them with the big club any time soon.

Management

Field

Bruce Bochy shaved his trademark mustache the day after the 2005 season ended. Last I saw, he was sporting some kind of goatee. Trevor Hoffman's older brother Glenn is the new third base coach, and former director of player development Tye Waller is the new first base coach. It's a mixed up muddled up shook up world.

Front Office

Arizona made overtures toward GM Kevin Towers, and there were rumors that he might be given consideration by the confused (and confusing) Red Sox, but in the end he stayed right where he's been since November 1995. Former A's Sandy Alderson and Grady Fuson round out the team and are attempting to rebuild the organization from the ground up, using many of the methods that met with great success in Oakland.

Outlook

Plus ça change... This team may look a lot different than v. 2005, but I expect it to play about the same. I'll go with a reversal of last year's record and say 80-82, good for second in the NL West. And whoever wins the division will be subject to the exact same derision and ridicule as the Padres experienced last year. Good times.

Acknowledgments

Thanks to all my readers at Ducksnorts for the continued support, suggestions, etc. I couldn't have done this without your contributions. Any errors, of course, are mine.

2006 ZiPS Projections - San Diego Padres

Name               P     G   AB    R    H  2B  3B  HR  RBI   BB    K  SB  CS   AVG   OBP   SLG 
Giles*             lf  152  538   76  147  32   6  18   84  106   70   9   5  .273  .394  .455 
Bozied             1b   70  264   36   70  13   1  11   41   23   46   1   0  .265  .329  .447 
Klesko*            lf  134  437   58  109  22   1  16   63   72   83   2   3  .249  .354  .414 
Greene             ss  130  476   56  125  31   2  16   71   37   99   4   2  .263  .323  .437 
Gonzalez*          1b  129  470   54  124  22   2  16   56   35   78   1   0  .264  .318  .421 
Cameron            cf  122  445   54  103  27   2  18   57   54  127  15   5  .231  .320  .422 
Cust*              lf  128  441   62   97  20   1  14   53   91  146   2   3  .220  .356  .365 
Johnson            rf  134  451   67  108  27   2  18   67   46  116   5   3  .239  .316  .428 
Barfield           2b  138  499   73  135  23   2  12   62   40  107  10   4  .271  .326  .397 
Roberts*           cf  115  395   57  104  16   8   6   43   48   56  22  11  .263  .344  .390 
Knott              rf  132  467   65  106  28   2  18   66   50  115   2   1  .227  .311  .411 
Sledge*            lf  118  351   31   86  16   5  11   47   37   60   2   3  .245  .316  .413 
Bellhorn#          2b  127  435   52   97  25   1  11   48   75  149   4   2  .223  .340  .361 
Mirabelli          c    54  145   15   33   8   0   5   18   15   41   1   0  .228  .315  .386 
Valent*            rf  131  401   49   95  23   1   9   45   54   87   0   1  .237  .328  .367 
Piazza             c   113  394   33   89  19   0  15   54   51   65   0   1  .226  .316  .388 
Leone              3b   99  340   55   76  18   2  11   45   44   96   5   3  .224  .315  .385 
Kottaras*          c   107  361   44   89  25   0   5   37   41   79   1   1  .247  .321  .357 
Young*             1b  129  467   53  113  22   1  16   63   31  115   2   2  .242  .301  .396 
McAnulty*          1b  138  455   59  110  25   1  10   51   46  106   3   2  .242  .313  .367 
Hill#              2b  121  359   42   88  16   2   4   34   44   65   6   4  .245  .337  .334 
LaForest*          c    95  327   36   72  19   1  14   42   31  116   1   2  .220  .287  .413 
Ross               c    67  185   20   41   9   1   6   24   16   58   0   0  .222  .291  .378 
Young              2b  104  340   47   88  17   1   3   32   33   29  14  11  .259  .329  .341 
Guzman#            cf  123  472   75  117  16   3   2   38   56   89  49  18  .248  .331  .307 
Castilla           3b  141  505   50  116  31   2  14   72   33  100   2   2  .230  .282  .382 
Sain               1b  125  417   48   92  20   0  13   52   35  106   1   2  .221  .282  .362 
Smith              3b  134  481   51  106  23   1  13   54   40  134   4   2  .220  .284  .353 
Blum#              3b  114  353   38   79  18   1   9   35   25   50   2   2  .224  .277  .357 

Name                 W   L    ERA   G  GS     INN    H   ER  HR   BB    K 
Hoffman              4   2   2.95  56   0    55.0   47   18   4   11   49 
Linebrink            6   3   3.16  73   0    77.0   61   27   6   24   75 
Peavy               13   8   3.39  30  30   191.0  160   72  19   56  199 
Young                9   9   3.95  29  29   148.0  134   65  15   47  135 
Andrade              3   3   4.14  39   0    50.0   42   23   5   23   45 
Meaux*               5   6   4.17  41   9   108.0  109   50   7   39   72 
Etherton             8   8   4.24  25  25   138.0  134   65  17   41  113 
Hensley              6   6   4.25  34  20   142.0  138   67  15   48   99 
Brocail              4   3   4.44  55   0    73.0   77   36   7   31   58 
Williams            10  12   4.45  30  30   184.0  191   91  21   56  127 
Anderson             3   3   4.64  52   1    64.0   63   33   8   24   46 
Embree*              3   3   4.67  68   0    52.0   54   27   8   13   40 
Stauffer             6  10   4.74  26  25   152.0  164   80  19   47   97 
Cassidy              3   6   4.76  47   5    85.0   82   45  10   42   76 
Wells                8  13   4.86  26  26   174.0  194   94  17   57   93 
Baugh                7  11   4.90  26  26   147.0  156   80  17   58   94 
Brazelton            6  11   4.99  27  22   128.0  127   71  12   68   90 
Estes*               7  13   5.06  28  28   162.0  170   91  17   77   96 
Park                 6  11   5.08  25  24   133.0  138   75  12   67   94 
Sweeney              7   9   5.14  31  25   161.0  183   92  26   39   99 
Thompson*            4  10   5.35  26  26   158.0  168   94  23   72  113 
Junge                5  10   5.37  26  19   119.0  128   71  20   47   79 
Burke*               3   5   5.43  56   0    68.0   65   41   8   43   58 
Adkins               4   7   5.98  32  17   122.0  146   81  25   43   69 

Disclaimer:  ZiPS projections are computer-based projections of performance.  
Performances have not been allocated to predicted playing time in the majors - 
many of the players listed above are unlikely to play in the majors at all in 2006.  
ZiPS is projecting equivalent production - a .240 ZiPS projection may end up 
being .280 in AAA or .300 in AA, for example.  Whether or not a player will play 
is one of many non-statistical factors one has to take into account when predicting 
the future.