2006 St. Louis Cardinals

Another year, another collection of Walt Jocketty's riverboat gambles on a team that should win 90-100 games, depending on injuries and luck. They should win that many because, like all of Tony LaRussa's winning teams, they have a solid rotation composed of established veteran starters and an established closer.

For those of you who haven't read any of my past few Cardinals analyses, I should mention that I have been studying Tony's teams since his days in Chicago with the White Sox, and without exception, his winning teams have that sort of pitching. Tony lives off of his veteran starters. If three of them have good years, he wins. If two, he might win. If only one starter holds up, he doesn't win. In no case does his offense, nor lack of it, correspond to winning. It's all about the pitching with Tony, and Jocketty, being Tony's long-term GM, knows it. Hence, the Cardinals have five veteran starters in the rotation, and hot prospect Anthony Reyes lurking in AAA, waiting for one of the starters to have an injury or a bad year. No one who knows Tony's history should be surprised. Reyes is the prospect. Tony prefers veterans. Therefore, new acquisition Sidney Ponson gets the first shot at replacing free agent Matt Morris, joining Mark Mulder, Jason Marquis, Chris Carpenter, and Jeff Suppan in the rotation. And Tony only really needs three good seasons out of these six available starters. Hence my high estimate of team wins.

Switching to offense, at first glance things look a bit dicey, as they usually do in a Walt Jocketty spring. Last year's team scored a lot of runs despite missing Scott Rolen for most of the year, but while they have Rolen back and in better health, they have lost second baseman Mark Grudzielanek, left fielder Reggie Sanders, and right fielder Larry Walker.

But wait. That's Riverboat Walt Jocketty at the table there, and he's pulling his usual stunt with the offense, which is to deal with holes by bringing in raftloads of cheap players and see who manages to have a good year. To replace Sanders, Walt brought in Juan Encarnacion, the closest thing to a guaranteed starter that Walt enlisted this season. Juan, when healthy, is Reggie Sanders lite, with about the same batting average, ten fewer homers, five more doubles, and even fewer walks than Reggie took. He was hurt last year, but Reggie Sanders is hardly the poster boy for injury freedom. All in all, Juan is not a complete replacement for Reggie, but he's enough for a team that isn't hurting for offense.

To man left field, Walt brought in everyone except the bat boy. Larry Bigbie is the projected starter, although he's hurt right now. Behind him is John Rodriguez, who had a hot late-season callup last year, but who is also nursing a bad shoulder right now and So Taguchi, a perfectly competent fourth outfielder opened the season in left, awaiting Bigbie's or Rodriguez' return to health. Behind Taguchi is Skip Schumacher, who could fill in for a month, and then there's John Gall, who can hit some but can't really play left field. None of these people is Larry Walker, but the Cardinals only got a partial season out of Walker last year, requiring them to give Taguchi much more playing time than they would like. Again, the Cards figure to lose some offense in the deal, but they have some to give, as long as the pitching is there.

At second base, Walt did the same thing, bringing in everyone he could find to deal with losing his starter. Remember that this is what he did last year, when Tony Womack left. He brought in a bunch of second basemen, and one of them was Mark Grudzielanek, and Womack had a lousy year for New York. The year before, Fernando Vina left, and Walt brought in every second baseman he could find, and one of them was Womack, and Vina didn't play well for his new team. Well, Junior Spivey is this year's Grudzielanek gamble, with Aaron Miles and Hector Luna as the competition (Deivi Cruz has already failed and been discarded). Miles opened the season at second, as Spivey has played terribly this spring, and that may be a good thing.

Miles is a slap hitter with a bit of line drive power, who doesn't take his walks, and therefore needs to hit at least .280 to be a starter. On the other hand, .280 would be his worst batting average in the last four years. He ripped up AA and AAA ball (well over .300) in 2002 and 2003, and then hit .293 and .281 in the majors the last couple of campaigns. Yes, he was in Colorado, and he did hit more at home than on the road, but his major league averages are completely consistent with the minor league ones, which were not in Colorado. If he can actually hit .290 in St. Louis, he's a find. If not, there's Spivey and Luna, the former being farmed out for the time being.

There is no doubting that all of this, nice as it is, isn't a real match for Grudzielanek, Sanders, and Walker. But to say that is to ignore one of Jocketty's prize assets: the willingness of the Cardinal ownership to pony up money late in the season to shore up a weak spot. Year after year, from Chuck Finley to Larry Walker himself, Walt has suddenly found the money to spring for a couple of months of a star veteran if he has a spot whose gambles have just not worked out. He didn't have to actually use this money last year, but it's there if he needs it. No one in St. Louis believes management's claims regarding budget any more. We all know that Walt has a few million in reserve, and that he knows how to use them. So it's not just Encarnacion, Bigbie, and Spivey. It's whichever two of those gambles work the best plus a big helping of star veteran if the team needs one late in the year. With the rest of the lineup held over from last season, plus the fine rotation situation, plus a solid closer, the Cardinals are going to have to work hard - and get hurt a lot - to fail to win 90 games this year.

A quick note about pitching: One thing to look for this year is the quality of Jason Marquis' curve ball. Tony and his staff love that curve, and tend to acquire veterans who have good ones. When they acquired Marquis and Adam Wainwright from the Braves, they got two pitchers who were short on that particular pitch, because the Braves don't emphasize it. (Actually, I think Bobby Cox dislikes the curve, a trait he may have learned, like a lot of what he knows, from Earl Weaver.) The last couple of years, from Marquis' and Wainwright's perspective, must have seemed like unending crash courses on how to throw curve balls. Marquis developed a decent one last year, but there is still some question as to whether the league will adjust to it this time around. If you watch any of his starts this year, pay attention to what the announcers say about his curve. You might also watch Wainwright. He's made the team as a middle reliever, but if he really gets his curve going, he could be the next hot Cardinal starter.

This next bit is delicate, and primarily intended for our readers who actually live in St. Louis and read the local paper, the Post-Dispatch. I assume that is a significant percentage of the people who are reading this preview. Bernie Miklasz, certainly the best sportswriter on the Post, has written a series of columns citing sabermetric sources lately, and he's either dealing with amateurs, or he's failing to understand what he's being told. I know Bernie, and consider him a friend, and he's used me as a sabermetric source, and he has always understood me. He also used to use Jim Henzler of Stats, Inc., and his quotes from Henzler have always at least made sense. These are different. There is something really wrong going on here. Rather than complain about the sources Bernie is using, or even naming them, I'm just going to make a few statements here and try desperately to avoid confrontation. Those of you who read Bernie will recognize the references, and the rest of you can probably at least guess at the content of the columns. And, as I said, I don't know if the problem is with the sources or with communication between them and Bernie.

1. It is silly to contend that Yadier Molina and David Eckstein cannot hold down starting spots on a first-division contending team. They just did, on a team that won 100 games. Eckstein was the leadoff man.

2. Junior Spivey has within recent memory played well enough to make the All-Star team, which has two slots for second basemen. There are about six contending teams in a league in a season. Therefore, making the All-Star team is harder than starting for a contender. Spivey looks terrible right now, and is currently in AAA ball, having accepted the demotion in the hope of getting his game back together after a couple of serious injuries. Sure, he may be finished. He's been hurt bad the last two years. But starting for a contender is certainly within his proven capabilities if he can get his health back. You can't just write him off at that level on the basis of injuries and a lousy spring. Just duplicating his 2004 partial season for Milwaukee, which was not the All-Star campaign, would justify the Cardinals not just starting him, but batting him second. Right now, he's an injury gamble, which is just the sort of player that Walt Jocketty specializes in.

3. So Taguchi is not a starter on the Cardinals, and never has been. He's the fourth outfielder, valued for his ability to play a decent center field without being an offensive hole. He will open the season in left field because Bigbie and Rodriguez are hurt, not because the Cardinals think of him as their starting left fielder. And it's a very odd thing to do to predict him to hit .250 or so when his last two batting averages have been .291 and .288. That was a reasonable prediction a year ago, when there was only the .291 average in only 179 at-bats, but adding the .288 in 396 AB changes the prediction parameters just a bit there. Or at least it should....

4. Walt Jocketty is not a Midwestern conservative who will be unable to pull a late-season acquisition trigger. As documented above, he's a riverboat gambler whose specialty is pulling the late season trigger to acquire an aging star. And he's not even a Midwesterner. He and La Russa came to St. Louis from Oakland, which is, like, on a coast, you know, next to San Francisco.

2006 ZiPS Projections - St. Louis Cardinals

Name               P     G   AB    R    H  2B  3B  HR  RBI   BB    K  SB  CS   AVG   OBP   SLG 
Pujols             1b  161  603  134  203  42   2  48  138   98   61  11   3  .337  .434  .652 
Edmonds*           cf  143  469   90  126  36   1  30   95   89  135   4   4  .269  .387  .542 
Rolen              3b  116  418   74  119  29   2  22   78   62   69   4   3  .285  .384  .522 
Spivey             2b   89  319   54   87  22   1  10   46   37   80   3   2  .273  .356  .442 
Daubach*           1b  122  382   61   94  26   0  16   64   60  107   1   0  .246  .352  .440 
Encarnacion        rf  145  536   70  152  35   3  16   88   43   95   8   6  .284  .342  .450 
Rodriguez*         lf  124  397   64  103  22   2  18   67   39   96   5   1  .259  .331  .461 
Eckstein           ss  151  602   85  171  25   5   6   61   54   44  11   7  .284  .351  .372 
Redman             cf  132  467   68  123  33   2  12   64   40  102  10   7  .263  .324  .420 
Bigbie*            lf  117  401   51  103  20   2   9   47   43   86   6   3  .257  .328  .384 
Gall               1b  135  446   63  114  27   0  13   62   37   54   4   2  .256  .314  .404 
Berg               ss   95  329   45   88  20   1   2   33   35   55   1   0  .267  .337  .353 
Spiezio#           3b  122  392   44   93  20   3  10   52   45   56   4   2  .237  .318  .380 
Taguchi            cf  137  365   43  100  19   2   6   45   18   56   9   3  .274  .309  .386 
Hernandez          c    81  250   23   65   9   1   3   26   28   31   0   0  .260  .335  .340 
Molina             c   108  360   37   95  15   1   7   43   26   29   1   2  .264  .315  .369 
Miles#             2b  133  507   65  137  21   3   7   53   29   46   8   6  .270  .311  .365 
Cruz               ss  125  385   42  104  21   1   7   47   15   38   0   2  .270  .299  .384 
Duncan*            1b  131  410   44   95  20   1  11   49   45   99   3   3  .232  .309  .366 
Baerga#            2b   91  159   17   41   7   0   2   17    9   18   0   0  .258  .320  .340 
Luna               2b  120  359   55   91  19   2   4   36   28   56  16   6  .253  .314  .351 
Ankiel*            lf   85  302   40   64  15   1  14   47   22   67   0   0  .212  .275  .407 
Schumaker*         cf  138  460   65  118  22   2   4   38   31   56  12   7  .257  .305  .339 
Hanson*            2b  125  463   58  109  23   2  10   54   30   89   1   2  .235  .284  .359 
Bennett            c    76  229   17   54  10   0   2   24   21   38   0   1  .236  .303  .306 
Nelson             ss  124  413   50   89  22   1   8   40   36  118   3   3  .215  .283  .332 
Nivar              cf  113  436   54  109  16   2   6   40   18   43  16  11  .250  .283  .337 
Gorecki            cf  119  408   51   86  19   1   6   39   33   79  13   8  .211  .273  .306 
Lemanczyk          cf  113  381   71   79  12   2   3   28   24   64  27   9  .207  .267  .273 

Name                 W   L    ERA   G  GS     INN    H   ER  HR   BB    K 
Isringhausen         3   1   3.10  64   0    61.0   48   21   4   25   55 
Carpenter           16   8   3.16  31  31   222.0  193   78  20   47  194 
Reyes                8   6   3.72  24  23   133.0  121   55  18   30  122 
Thompson             4   3   3.76  49   0    67.0   61   28   6   21   40 
Looper               5   4   4.07  73   0    73.0   72   33   6   22   44 
Flores*              4   4   4.13  51   0    61.0   58   28   6   22   48 
Nelson               2   2   4.17  51   0    41.0   34   19   3   23   42 
Mateo                7   5   4.21  38  12   109.0  109   51  13   30   84 
Mulder*             13  11   4.22  31  31   207.0  205   97  19   70  128 
Wainwright           9   9   4.50  28  26   174.0  184   87  23   44  112 
Suppan              12  13   4.52  32  31   195.0  201   98  24   61  112 
Ponson              11  12   4.57  29  29   189.0  200   96  17   61  109 
Marquis             12  13   4.68  33  32   204.0  209  106  27   69  115 
Johnson*             1   2   4.82  55   0    56.0   47   30   7   35   64 
Riedling             3   5   4.86  56   2    76.0   80   41   6   38   50 
Rincon*              2   2   4.91  66   0    44.0   40   24   5   26   36 
Rundles*             7   8   4.91  24  24   152.0  172   83  18   46   64 
Hancock              6   8   5.01  30  23   140.0  152   78  22   46   91 
Tankersley           6  10   5.08  30  25   147.0  148   83  20   70  104 
Parrott              5   7   5.16  23  23   129.0  131   74  18   62   90 
Cali*                2   4   5.35  60   0    74.0   79   44   9   35   49 
Pomeranz             7  10   5.52  23  23   145.0  168   89  21   52   65 
Voyles               3   6   5.56  23  13    89.0   94   55  17   37   65 
Webb                 5   8   5.77  28  24   145.0  158   93  24   71   78 
Narveson*            5   8   5.81  25  24   127.0  138   82  20   68   85 
Lambert              3   5   6.14  18  18    88.0   94   60  13   54   62 

Disclaimer:  ZiPS projections are computer-based projections of performance.  
Performances have not been allocated to predicted playing time in the majors - 
many of the players listed above are unlikely to play in the majors at all in 2006.  
ZiPS is projecting equivalent production - a .240 ZiPS projection may end up 
being .280 in AAA or .300 in AA, for example.  Whether or not a player will play 
is one of many non-statistical factors one has to take into account when predicting 
the future.