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— BTF's Preseason Previews

Thursday, April 13, 2006

2006 Tampa Bay Devil Rays

Ever tried. Ever failed. No matter. Try Again. Fail again. Fail better. – Samuel Beckett

Trying: 1998 and 1999 – 132 wins 192 losses.

Failed: 2000 and 2001 – 131 wins 192 losses.

Failed again: 2002 and 2003 – 118 wins 205 losses.

Failed better: 2004 and 2005 – 137 wins and 186 losses.

On the surface the Devil Ray’s 2005 season was once again a failure. Another 90 plus loss season, more managerial turmoil, pitchers unable to get outs, hitters unable to hit the long ball or draw walks, more injuries and ineffectiveness to pitchers drafted highly in the first round. Heck, even below the surface it was a failure.

Despite that, I’m encouraged for the first time in the Devil Rays history. The organization is better off today than it was a year ago. Let’s hit the high spots before we dig into the specifics.

  1. Out with the old and in with the new – After 3 years of cellar dwelling Lou Piniella, had finally had enough. For the first time in his career the highly thought of Piniella couldn’t get anything out of a club. Piniella came to the Rays with a .538 career winning percentage in almost 2,500 games managed. Yet, in the nearly 500 he managed in purple and green he barely cracked .400 (.412). The perpetual managerial bridesmaid Joe Maddon takes over the reigns in 2006. Maddon, a progressive thinker, has been quoted in the past as a believer in advanced analysis - the long time bench coach of the Angels under Mike Scioscia has said all the right things. It will be interesting to see if he can translate it to on the field successes..

"If computers were available when Branch Rickey was alive, he'd have made them popular 50 years ago. ... We take advantage of technology in every other facet of life and we're going to disdain it in sports? I don't get that." - Joe Maddon.

  1. Taking out the garbage – When Stuart Sternberg took over the Devil Rays in October, one of his first acts was to can the first and only general manager in the history of the Devil Rays in Chuck Lamar. Lamar may very well go down in history as the most incompetent General Manager in the history of the game. Considering the level of incompetence that has been shown throughout baseball history, that is certainly saying something. Before leaving, however, Lamar left the Devil Rays a reminder of his incompetence – the 2005 amateur draft, where the Rays selected Rice right hander Wade Townsend an expected easy sign, while passing on a number of far better prospects. Of course, to compound their incompentence they got a little unlucky as Townsend proceeded to get hurt during the Arizona Fall League, blowing out his elbow. Andrew Friedman, the teams Executive Vice President of Baseball Operations looks to be the new sheriff in town, though the front office hasn’t named an official “general manager”.
  2. Break on through – Jorge Cantu got his first prolonged exposure to major league baseball and put up a monster season as a 23 year old. Cantu compiled 18 win shares, 17 with the bat. Since 1920, there have been 28 second baseman who have posted between 18 and 22 win shares at that age or younger. Those 28 have gone on to average 250 win shares for their career only 2 of which went on to post less than 100 career winshares. The odds are pretty good the Rays have a keeper in Cantu.
  3. Twin Rookies – The Rays had two players in the top 10 of the rookie of the year voting, Jonny Gomes (third) and Scott Kazmir (9th). While Gomes, may not ever hit like he did this year, Kazmir looks like if he stays healthy he will be the real deal, a legitimate 22 year-old front of the rotation starter. Something the Twin Titans of the AL East would drool to have.
  4. Twin Prospects – While on the farm, the Rays have two of the five best prospects who played in the minors last year in BJ Upton and Delmon Young. Both players are potential 5 tool players, who have produced in the minors and have few question marks between them (Upton’s defense). You might not see Upton on prospect lists, because he used up his rookie eligibility in 2004, he is without a doubt a player with a very real chance of being an impact player at the major league level.
Despite the failure that took place on the field in 2005, organizationally it was a success. Keeping Kazmir healthy and on-track, the emergence of Cantu and Gomes, Crawford continues to look like a star in the making, Young and Upton continuing to work towards being a fixture at the Trop, the cashing in of Baez for a couple of arms with upside, the drastic increase in the trade value of Julio Lugo. With that said what should our expectations be for 2006? What do the Rays need to achieve for 2006 to be considered a success even though it likely won’t result in a playoff appearance or a World Series championship? In my mind this is where any season preview needs to start – what do they need to do to be a success?

  1. Take a step forward. 95 wins isn’t a realistic target. However, another 60-70-win season should be considered a failure. I think the number should be 78 wins. It’s aggressive; an 11 win improvement over last year, and the most wins in the sad history of the Devil Ray’s. However, if the Rays plan on competing in 2008 or 2009 they need to start making steps forward now. As a step back is inevitable at some point.
  2. Last year the Ray’s had four young players take major steps forward, in Kazmir, Gomes, Cantu and Orvella. Expecting the same kind of progress from four more players would be tough. However, based on the system and some of the other young players on the roster I think 2 is a reasonable and fair expectation. My guess? Upton, and McClung.
  3. The big jump – One of their good young players Crawford, Rocco, Gomes, Kazmir, or Cantu needs to make the jump to super star level.
  4. The Pipeline – Prospect guru John Sickles – Gives Rays prospects one A, and nine B’s, plus Upton as an un-graded player. A few B’s need to make the jump to A range, and they need to add a couple B’s net to the system, hopefully on the pitching side.
  5. Be aggressive in the trade market – be sure to get reasonable return for Lugo and Huff.

The Rotation

Scott Kazmir

Kazmir entered last spring with a chance to win a rotation slot. This year the 22 year old pitcher will take the mound on opening day as the best pitcher in the history of the organization. Kazmir has electric stuff, and is praised for his makeup. His herky jerky mechanics and slight build has led some to conclude he is an injury waiting to happen. While I can’t speak to that, I can speak to his incredible second half. After the all star break – he went 7 and 2 with a 2.79 ERA, and averaged more than a K per inning. Kazmir is my number 1, fantasy sleeper this year. Kazmir is almost always drafted after the 12th round in a 12-team league. I think he has a very good chance to be a top 15-fantasy starter this year, and a tremendous pitcher for Rays. The Rays should handle this young ace carefully for another year. He is the most important player in the organization.

Seth McClung

McClung was the Devil Rays Dr. Jekyll and Mr. Hyde during the 05 season. He started the year in the pen, and got shelled. He picked up a start in June and looked very good. He made 16 more starts over the last 3 months of the season, and like a box of chocolates you never knew what you were going to get. In July he had 4 quality starts in 5 opportunities. August was tougher for the 25 year old, with only 2 out 6 starts lasting 6 innings with 4 or fewer runs allowed. September was even more uneven. He started the month with a very good game against Toronto, then got shelled by Toronto. His next 2 starts he allowed 7 runs in each to Boston and New York. Then he closed his season, by ending Clevland season (at least contributing to their end of the year choke) with a gem of a 1-0 win on September 28th. Unlike Waechter and Hendrickson, McClung has above average major league stuff. McClung’s fastball looked to still be a notch or two slower than pre-TJ so there is a chance, that a he can add back a bit more velocity. I think McClung has a chance to breakout, and be a pretty good pitcher. With that said it’s important to remember he does have a career ERA over 6, in 150 innings of work, so betting the farm on his breakout would be at least somewhat unwise.

Casey Fossum

Fossum is likely miscast as a starter. The reed- thin lefty is now 28 and hasn’t been remotely useful since 2002, as a swingman for Boston. Fossum showed some flashes last season, which lead to him being given a 3 year contract extension, at reasonable enough money. Fossum throws low 90’s with decent secondary stuff. Where he has run into problems in the past is lack of constancy in terms of arm angle and release point. Perhaps new pitching coach Mike Butcher, can lend a hand.

Doug Waechter

The 25 year old righthander is a command in control specialist went 5 and 12 in 2005, allowing over 6 runs per game. He doesn’t strike anyone out, he is very hittable, and has a major case of gopheritis. He has two things in his favor, great command (less than 2 walks per 9) and age. I’m hoping with some experience he will learn to selectively nibble a bit more, and get his home run rate under control. Without that, he has no chance of being an asset to the Rays or anyone else. The Rays should give him 32 starts in 06, and see what he can do, he has less than 300 major league innings, so there is a chance a light bulb might still go off.

Mark Hendrickson

Lurch Hendricson, is a 32-year-old lefthanded innings eater, who will hopefully pitch for 2 months, as Edwin Jackson, Jason Hammel, Chris Seddon, and Jamie Shields work on some things in AAA in preparation for a big league career. We know what Hendrickson has and it isn’t much. He will make 30 starts, and he will pitch poorly. He isn’t a championship caliber player, and won’t ever develop into one. His 80 ERA+ should be able to be matched by one of the four pitchers mentioned above. In other words, Lurch should be used as a stopgap, and should only be used as long as Hammel, Jackson, Seddon and Shields aren’t ready.

The Bullpen

The bullpen in Tampa is unsettled, and it will be interesting to see how the skipper will piece together this rag a muffin crew over the course of the season. Chad Orvella, Jesus Colome, and Dan Miceli, Shawn Camp, and Chad Harville all competed for the closer job during the spring, with Dan Miceli getting the most chances for the time being. Maddon played it tight to the vest and has said he might go with some type of rotation or committee. Travis Harper, will work the middle innings. Beyond that your guess is as good as mine. Orvella, is probably the teams best reliever. He was solid last year in 50 innings of work. Colome, has electric stuff but is injury prone and has never been able to harness his stuff for any type on any type of consistent basis. Harper, is a solid but unspectacular major league pitcher, who was down right terrible last year but solid in both 03 and 04 for the Rays. Harville, and Miceli are veteran journeyman. Camp, isn’t a journeyman mostly because he isn’t good enough to have being given multiple shots to succeed, he did pitch like a journeyman in KC last year. If the Rays bullpen isn’t the worst in baseball in 06, Joe Maddon deserves manager of the year; this is an ugly bunch.

Position Players

Catcher

Toby Hall should continue to be the regular backstop for the Rays, with Josh Paul as his primary backup, and Kevin Cash will be stashed away in AAA. The catcher position will not be a strength for the Rays in 06. Hall was a roughly average major league catcher last year, but below in both 03 and 04. As a 31 year old with a good amount of wear and tear expecting any kind of mass improvement would be silly. Hope for another average year, and pray the wheels don’t fall off. Catcher is not an area of organizational strength; it’s likely that the Rays will have to go outside the organization to find their next regular catcher. Shawn Riggans is the only backstop at the minor league level who might eventually call a major league clubhouse the office.

First Base

The Rays best long-term option at first base looks to be Wes Bankston, who will open the year in Durham. John Sickles grades him a B+ prospect, but personally I think his power potential is a little light for a corner player to get that high of a mark. The Rays will once again open the season with Travis Lee at 1b. Lee is nothing more than filler. Lee is a relatively poor hitter relative to position, though he is a reasonable enough fielder. If Lee goes down, I would expect to see Aubrey Huff move across the diamond and play 1b, or perhaps Russell Branyan.

Second Base

The Rays look to be set at 2b for a long time to come. Jorge Cantu doesn’t walk much (19 unintentional BB’s in 05), but he does make contact (only 83 strikeouts), hits for average, and hits for power. As pitchers learn to respect his power, the walks will come. Cantu is a poor defender, he isn’t reliable – he doesn’t have good range, and he doesn’t turn the DP well. He will need to improve if he is to stay in the middle of the diamond.

Third Base

Been there done that. Aubrey Huff is back again at the hot corner. Hopefully, he will only be standing in the vicinity of third for about 3 months, while the Rays try and get some pitching prospects out of a team in contention. Huff is a nice player, in that he is a left handed stick, who can play any of the 4 corners of the diamond. He doesn’t play any of them well, but he can stand out there and not be too embarrassing. Huff had an off- year last year – the Rays are clearly hoping for a return to his .360/.500 form of the past. If not, the offers might be few and far between. Sean Burroughs looks to be the backup, and potential replacement when and if Huff is shipped out of town. Burroughs is a good gamble for the Rays, a once highly touted prospect – Sean hasn’t done anything to improve his stock over the last 2 years. Burroughs a good bet to hit near .300 if healthy hasn’t drawn enough walks or hit for enough power to be an asset. Yet if he can add a touch of either to his game, he will be a solid contributor to the Rays for a number of years to come. Think Bill Mueller, and in Mueller like fashion he will be starting the season on the DL(though surprisingly Billy Ball Game will not).

Shortstop

Tampa Bay is the tale of two shortstops. Julio Lugo, a consistent .340/.400 player with great speed, who may have had a break through year in 2005 and is just now turning 30 is the incumbent. The youngster is BJ Upton a 5 tool prospect, who the Rays don’t think can handle the position. Luckily, Joe Maddon doesn’t seem to agree as he has gone out of the way to praise BJ’s work ethic and improving defense all spring, while Lugo has battled nagging injuries. Lugo is a free agent at the end of the year – I expect him to be dealt prior to the trade deadline, and hand the reigns over to BJ for the next 5 years. Unfortunately I was hoping the Rays would pull the trigger on the deal in the offseason, as I doubt if Lugo’s value will ever be higher. The chance to pull the trigger on a Andy Marte for Lugo deal was out there a couple times, and the Rays passed. It will be interesting if they will be able to do better during the season. I tend to doubt it.

Left Field

Where Carl Crawford roams. Crawford is a 5 tool player, who entering his 24 year old season has almost 2300 plate appearances, and is established his current level of ability as .300/360/.450 with 50 stolen bases. Couple that with great defense and he is already a star. Yet, many people, myself among them, think this could be the tip of the iceberg. I wouldn’t be surprised to see him add another 20 points to his BA, and another 20-30 to his isolated power; my only question is when will he make that next jump.

Centerfield

Long-term, the Rays are still committed to Rocco Baldelli despite him missing the entire 2005 season and him starting the 2006 season on the DL. Baldelli has often drawn comparisons to Joe DiMaggio, no doubt due to his sweet right-handed swing and the Italian heritage he shares with Mr. Marilyn Monroe. With Baldelli out, centerfield is being manned by Damon Hollins and Joey Gathright. Hollins is a journeyman minor leaguer who is best suited for the role of a 5th outfielder. Gathright, is a young ball hawking speedster, whose bat is a question mark, but his glove is an exclamation point.

Rightfield

Jonny Gomes opens the year as the rightfielder, but he will eventually be pushed to DH when super prospect Delmon Young is ready. Gomes a slugger who burst on the scene last year, has tremendous power, and strong secondary skills. Young, who is starting the year in AAA is a 5 tool player, who looks like he will be a big league regular for a long time to come.

Designated Hitter

I expect the Rays will rotate position player through the DH slot until either Rocco comes off the DL or until Delmon is ready. Until then expect to see Huff, Gomes, Ty Wiggington, and Russell Branyan share time, until Gomes settles into the position long term.

Now if they could only figure out what to do about the name of the club.

2006 ZiPS Projections - Tampa Bay Devil Rays

Name               P     G   AB    R    H  2B  3B  HR  RBI   BB    K  SB  CS   AVG   OBP   SLG 
Gomes              rf  140  480   86  128  25   4  29   88   61  159  11   5  .267  .365  .517 
Branyan*           3b  117  355   52   89  20   1  22   64   50  128   3   2  .251  .347  .499 
Crawford*          lf  156  644  107  196  30  14  14   88   32   83  61  10  .304  .338  .460 
Huff*              rf  156  597   80  168  31   2  25  100   56   85   6   5  .281  .345  .466 
Cantu              2b  145  560   75  160  42   1  26  102   21   83   2   1  .286  .316  .504 
Lee*               1b  136  463   55  127  27   2  14   62   50   83   5   3  .274  .344  .432 
Baldelli           cf  150  622   96  182  26   5  18   87   36  114  21   8  .293  .337  .437 
Upton              ss  140  516   88  142  26   4  14   65   61  126  30  13  .275  .354  .422 
Wigginton          3b  145  509   66  134  33   2  17   70   54   88   7   3  .263  .336  .436 
Lugo               ss  153  586   82  167  34   5   7   66   59   85  28   8  .285  .353  .396 
Burroughs*         3b  119  424   61  123  16   3   5   51   34   53   5   2  .290  .352  .377 
Bankston           1b  111  381   55   93  19   1  16   57   38   89   4   2  .244  .319  .425 
Young              rf  135  509   77  138  20   3  19   75   26  106  20   9  .271  .314  .434 
Hollins            lf  130  406   50  104  23   1  13   58   32   79   7   3  .256  .313  .414 
Green              2b  114  344   51   87  18   2   7   39   31   84   3   2  .253  .326  .378 
Rose#              c    92  275   35   64  15   1   5   30   41   70   1   0  .233  .336  .349 
Riggans            c    81  265   37   69  17   0   5   33   19   58   1   1  .260  .317  .381 
Dukes#             cf  114  396   61   98  18   2  12   51   34   85  16   9  .247  .313  .394 
Gathright*         cf  125  417   70  118  14   4   1   34   34   89  39  17  .283  .342  .343 
Hall               c   130  433   33  118  21   0   6   49   20   41   0   1  .273  .310  .363 
Rivas              2b  119  386   53   99  19   4   8   43   15   54  12   4  .256  .287  .389 
Cash               c    85  291   34   64  19   1   9   36   27   82   1   1  .220  .291  .385 
Cortez*            2b  113  437   57  109  17   3   2   38   26   80  19   5  .249  .297  .316 
Christianson       c    79  274   34   60  12   0   7   31   24   75   1   1  .219  .285  .339 
Ordaz              2b   76  262   26   62  15   2   1   23   12   37   2   2  .237  .273  .321 
Paul               c    64  153   15   33   4   0   3   15   11   35   1   2  .216  .267  .301 
Johnson#           2b  122  462   62   98  15   4   5   36   28  108  30  12  .212  .264  .294 

Name                 W   L    ERA   G  GS     INN    H   ER  HR   BB    K 
Kazmir*             10   7   3.87  30  30   172.0  151   74  12   73  184 
Orvella              3   2   3.89  50   0    74.0   67   32   9   23   74 
Malaska*             4   3   4.26  45   3    76.0   72   36   6   34   62 
Miceli               4   4   4.57  58   0    65.0   62   33   9   26   59 
Colome               3   4   4.71  47   0    63.0   61   33   7   32   50 
Corcoran             3   3   4.83  37   1    69.0   67   37   7   35   53 
Harper               5   5   4.84  54   0    80.0   83   43  11   26   52 
Hines                3   3   4.94  48   0    71.0   75   39   6   34   45 
Camp                 4   6   5.02  52   4   104.0  119   58  13   31   62 
Carnes               3   4   5.02  33  11    95.0  105   53  14   31   59 
Miller               3   3   5.03  25  11    77.0   81   43  13   31   62 
Fossum*              8  11   5.09  34  27   152.0  158   86  22   60  123 
Hammel               7  10   5.12  25  25   153.0  166   87  24   53  111 
Mori                 2   4   5.14  47   0    56.0   52   32   8   31   53 
Harville             2   3   5.19  57   0    59.0   58   34   8   32   49 
Cressend             5   5   5.20  40   3    71.0   77   41  13   22   52 
Hendrickson*         9  12   5.21  31  31   178.0  211  103  23   47   85 
Stokes               5   7   5.22  18  18   100.0  110   58  16   34   66 
Driskill             4   8   5.26  39   7   106.0  119   62  23   27   77 
Switzer*             4   6   5.37  26  18   109.0  122   65  16   42   69 
Waechter             7  11   5.55  29  27   154.0  173   95  30   47   96 
McClung              6  11   5.58  35  17   108.0  104   67  17   55   97 
Miadich              2   5   5.74  42   0    47.0   38   30   6   43   64 
Tiffany*             4  10   5.82  22  21   102.0  108   66  23   43   96 
Franklin*            4   7   5.88  46  17   127.0  140   83  24   57   79 
Seddon*              7  13   5.94  27  27   144.0  161   95  25   69  100 
Jackson              6  14   5.94  29  26   153.0  175  101  25   74   90 

Disclaimer:  ZiPS projections are computer-based projections of performance.  
Performances have not been allocated to predicted playing time in the majors - 
many of the players listed above are unlikely to play in the majors at all in 2006.  
ZiPS is projecting equivalent production - a .240 ZiPS projection may end up 
being .280 in AAA or .300 in AA, for example.  Whether or not a player will play 
is one of many non-statistical factors one has to take into account when predicting 
the future.
Matt Rauseo Posted: April 13, 2006 at 08:25 PM | 39 comment(s)
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   1. sliver7 Posted: April 14, 2006 at 08:15 AM (#1962600)
I'm guessing this was written before Lugo, Huff, Ordaz, Mori and too many others were placed on the DL, yes?

In any case, my 2 worth:

1B: Travis Lee's a respectable hitter. Not great, but respectable: He hit .275/.348/.459 in `03 with the Rays, and was patient enough to draw 64 walks. Due to his injury playing for NYY in `04 and subsequent way-too-long rehab, I think the entire first half of `05 can be discounted. It really picked up for him after the all-star break and he's already got 4 homers in 9 games to start this season. Also, why he's not won a Gold Glove yet is really beyond me (he's got, what, something like a .997 career fielding percentage?).

His real value to the team is with the glove. He's an awesome defender. Let's face it, with wild arms like the rest of the infield, you really want, nay, need a guy with a vacuum cleaner for a glove. He's only going to be more valuable in that respect when Upton makes the show. I think the DRO recognizes this, too (they've been experimenting with moving vaunted 1B prospect Wes Bankston to 3B, which tells me they might be considering keeping Lee around for a lot longer).

Bullpen: Maybe they should just can the entire `pen and promote everyone in Durham now to save the hassle of doing it later. It stinks, and if I see Dan Micelli called in to close any more games, I'm going to shout some very uncivilized things at my TV.

Rotation: Mark "Lurch" Hendrickson is, IMO, a little better than you make him out to be (That complete-game shutout vs. Baltimore was a nice game, well-pitched). I think the team likes that he can usually be counted on to eat innings. I don't think he'll be the first guy bumped from the rotation to make room for one of the up-and-comers. That distinction, I fear, is going to go to McClung if he can't find a little consistency to his starts.

Other: Is the trainer on crack? Is it a streak of bad luck? How the heck could there be some many injuries so early in the season?!

Go Rays! <small>Please get better!</small>
   2. Mister High Standards Posted: April 14, 2006 at 08:58 AM (#1962626)
After Mori, before Huff, Lugo and Ordaz.
   3. Mister High Standards Posted: April 14, 2006 at 09:25 AM (#1962664)
The formating got kind of messed up in the starting pitcher section. Oh well.
   4. Fred Garvin, Collateral Damage Posted: April 14, 2006 at 09:48 AM (#1962700)
Good preview. If anything, though, I think that it gives the pitching staff a bit too much credit. Kazmir is capable of leading the staff and being one of the better pitchers in the AL, but I'm not sure he's quite there yet. Beyond him, however, I'm not sold at all on McClung, Fossum, or Waechter and share the disdain for Hendrickson. As for the pen, I think the preview pretty much covers their inadequacies.

The Rays have a surplus of hitters, particularly guys like Gathright, Hollins, Lugo, and Huff, and I'd love to see them dealt to get a good starter (dare I say a veteran?).
   5. JGLB is so classy even his dog wears cashmere Posted: April 14, 2006 at 09:55 AM (#1962710)
As a new bandwagon fan (ex-Spo) I'd like to say that I highly enjoyed this article. I know it's not substantitive, but it's on topic enough to slip this in. How's the actual Tropicana experience? I'll be heading to Tampa to visit family this summer and I want to get in a couple of games. Any information on seating and nearby places to get a pre-game brew?
   6. Mister High Standards Posted: April 14, 2006 at 10:09 AM (#1962725)
JGBL - I'd say thats on topic. Its a dump. Worst park I've been too including Olympic, Old Memorial and Shea.

Its in a crappy part of St Pete, and the park is well not so nice. The fans are friendly enough. I reccomend sitting in rightfield. I sat there the two times Ive been to the park. Tix were cheap and the site lines were very good.

Djf - I agree the starting pitching is bad. I just see enough positives in the 3 your not sold on (I'm not sold either) to give them part of another year to see what they have rather than toss them out for another flavor of the month. I also expect you'll see Lugo, and Huff moved for pitching prospects. I think they have tried to deal Gathright and haven't gotten an offer that they thought was fair value. I don't expect Hollins to have any trade value - he is a run of the mill 5th outfielder.
   7. Fred Garvin, Collateral Damage Posted: April 14, 2006 at 10:09 AM (#1962726)
The other thing I wanted to comment upon was this:

what do they need to do to be a success?

1. Take a step forward. 95 wins isn’t a realistic target. However, another 60-70-win season should be considered a failure. I think the number should be 78 wins. It’s aggressive; an 11 win improvement over last year, and the most wins in the sad history of the Devil Ray’s. . . .

. . .

3. The big jump – One of their good young players Crawford, Rocco, Gomes, Kazmir, or Cantu needs to make the jump to super star level.

4. The Pipeline – . . . A few B’s need to make the jump to A range, and they need to add a couple B’s net to the system, hopefully on the pitching side.

5. Be aggressive in the trade market – be sure to get reasonable return for Lugo and Huff.


I agree with these points, but I don't think they need to do *all* of them for 2006 to be a success.

Going in reverse order, it seems to me that it is absolutely essential to the Rays that they determine who they want and don't want -- both in the pitching staff as well as the lineup. We have all pointed fingers at Huff and Lugo as trade candidates and I mentioned others in Post #4, but what's more important is that the Rays identify where they are going.

On that note, I should also add the fact that Andrew Friedman is also working with/learning from Gerry Hunsicker, who I expect will benefit the organization tremendously.

The second critical step is not just to trade those for whom the Rays don't see a fit, but to acquire good talent in return -- not just cheap minor leaguers or aging, over-the-hill veterans. This is a team with a future, but needs to plug a few holes (especially on the pitching staff); it does not need marketing draws.

As for the pipeline, I agree that they can use more depth in the minors, particularly on the mound, but I don't see this as critical for them just yet. The additions of Jackson and Tiffany, plus the likes of Hammel, et al. help for now.

Regarding "the big jump," if they make the right roster moves to bring more balance to this team, particularly improving the pitching staff, I'd consider this season a success even if no one becomes a household name. Nevertheless, I think Jonny Gomes has the best potential to make a further name for himself this season, with Delmon Young obviously down the road.

Finally, the win total. I'd also like to see 78 wins or more, but if the front office can determine who they want, acquire talent for those they don't need, and find a way to work Young and Upton into the majors, I would consider the season a success even if they only won 70 games.

Nevertheless, this is a franchise with new ownership in a community that has long been disenchanted with the Naimoli regime, whose pest performance was a 70 win season (in 2004). They've made some good gestures to their players and the community and it appears that morale is optimistic, but if they continue to win less than 70 games this season, I can foresee a sense of "meet the new boss, same as the old boss" coming. For that reason alone, I think that even a 72+ win season would provide a psychic boost.
   8. Fred Garvin, Collateral Damage Posted: April 14, 2006 at 10:16 AM (#1962734)
I just see enough positives in the 3 your not sold on (I'm not sold either) to give them part of another year to see what they have rather than toss them out for another flavor of the month.

I agree, but it's not like they really have a choice. They are using McClung, et al. out of necessity. Obviously, I'd like to see one or more of these guys make a leap and become at least solid back-of-the-rotation guys, but I'm not optimistic. For now, though, they need to buy some time until Jackson and Hammel show they are ready for the show.


I also expect you'll see Lugo, and Huff moved for pitching prospects. I think they have tried to deal Gathright and haven't gotten an offer that they thought was fair value. I don't expect Hollins to have any trade value - he is a run of the mill 5th outfielder.

In a perfect scenario, I'd love for them to make more deals like the Jackson/Tiffany deal, but I'd also like for them to find a way to bring in a decent, moderately priced veteran pitcher who can help mentor the kids as well. I don't know if it will happen, though.

I agree that they couldn't get what they thought Gathright is worth and that Hollins isn't worth much, but I just added those names as guys who the team will eventually want to weed out.
   9. Fred Garvin, Collateral Damage Posted: April 14, 2006 at 10:25 AM (#1962746)
I should also add that one of the areas they need to sort out is their corner infield -- they have Lee at 1B, but they've also got a gaggle of guys playing 3B who can move over as well.

Between Lee, Huff, Wiggington, Branyan, Burroughs, and Bankston (currently moved to 3B), not to mention the idea of having to potentially move Upton away from SS, they need to figure out where they are going.
   10. Mister High Standards Posted: April 14, 2006 at 10:29 AM (#1962751)

I'd like to see one or more of these guys make a leap and become at least solid back-of-the-rotation guys, but I'm not optimistic.


Maybe we do severly disagree about their potential. I don't think they need to make a leap to be back of the rotation starters. A skip is more like it. A leap would be into the legit number 2 status, which I don' really see happening, but stranger things have happened.

I also disagree with your assessment of Gomes I think he is less likely to be a star, say a 9-10 win player that Crawford, Cantu, Baldelli, Upton, or Young. I like the guy and I think he is more likely to be a minor star say 6-8 win player than Upton, or Baldelli - I just don't see huge superstar upside from a defensivly chanllanged corner outfielder who won't hit for a very high average.

Also in re: to win total, I do think a 70 win season should be considered a failure as I stated in the preview. Generally speaking I think most primates (and I don't want to group you with most primates) underrate the importance of winning games, for all but the top level of teams, I think your falling into that trap. The organazation isn't just trying to build a team for the future, but they are trying to build a fan base as well. Recenly we've seen towns like Milwaukee and Detriot really get fired up about baseball after winning some games, rather than being a door mat. I think it's tougher for people who generally have a rooting intrest in the more successful franchises to keep in mind that wins for the less successful franchises also accomplish something. 74 wins would be ok, much less would be a disapointment.
   11. Fred Garvin, Collateral Damage Posted: April 14, 2006 at 10:44 AM (#1962767)
Maybe we do severly disagree about their potential. I don't think they need to make a leap to be back of the rotation starters. A skip is more like it. A leap would be into the legit number 2 status, which I don' really see happening, but stranger things have happened.

No, I don't think we're that far off -- it was just my terminology. IMO, McClung, Fossum, and Waechter are all essentially #5 starters being forced into more dramatic roles. Perhaps they can remain there and perhaps they may progress beyond that, but I don't see any of them progressing to the #2 level.


I also disagree with your assessment of Gomes I think he is less likely to be a star, say a 9-10 win player that Crawford, Cantu, Baldelli, Upton, or Young.

Again, I don't think we're all that far apart -- I just have a fondness for Gomes that is perhaps clouding my judgment. I'm more skeptical on Baldelli, though.


I do think a 70 win season should be considered a failure as I stated in the preview. Generally speaking I think most primates . . . underrate the importance of winning games . . . . The organazation isn't just trying to build a team for the future, but they are trying to build a fan base as well.

Agreed again. Maybe I didn't word myself well, but this was the point I was trying to make. IMO, the most critical things the organization needs to do is to map out a plan and take steps toward executing that plan -- incorporating Upton and Young into the bigs, sorting out the OF and corner infield slots, and adding good pitching, especially starters (thinking the pen can be worked out cheaper). If they do that, the year is a success in my mind, almost regardless of the win total.

Nevertheless, I totally agree that 2006 on-field success is important for this team and the community. As I mentioned, the new ownership and front office crew has established some goodwill, but if the team continues to win 70 games (or less), I can easily foresee the community thinking nothing has changed and losing faith. Even if they win only 74 games, that would be some sign to the community that there is reason for optimism and that they should stick with the team.

Obviously 78 wins (or better still, 81) would be fantastic. My point was that (a) I don't expect them to win that many and (b) even if they won in the lower 70s, that alone would be an improvement over the Naimoli-led teams and would provide a psychic boost.
   12. CFBF: Now With the Dan Werr Seal of Approval Posted: April 14, 2006 at 12:34 PM (#1962937)
Good preview. I enjoyed that.

One minor piece of criticism about the entire Preview project in general: Is there a logistical or technical reason why a lot of the Previews are being posted after the season has started?

I understand that the Previews aren't invalidated by two week's worth of games. But nonetheless, it's a little jarring to see that the Braves have played 10 games and have yet to be "previewed," for example.
   13. Mike Emeigh Posted: April 14, 2006 at 07:18 PM (#1963601)
Is there a logistical or technical reason why a lot of the Previews are being posted after the season has started?


Yes.

1. Some of us were late submitting articles.
2. Dan's service provider knocked him off line for a few days right after the crunch.

-- MWE
   14. Joe Dimino Posted: April 14, 2006 at 10:37 PM (#1964726)
Nice work Matt.

I see the Devil Rays about where the Blue Jays were in early 1982. It's finally time for the team to start moving forward. Kazmir is Stieb, and the team is just loaded with young hitters.

In the right hands, this thing could all reach a critical mass very, very soon. The pitching needs help, for sure.

But as Bill James said many moons ago . . . I think a team that is loaded with young hitters and has a shaky staff is in much better shape than a team with some good young pitching but a rough offense. The hitters are much more likely to actually pan out.

I realize Upton is having trouble at SS and that is what's holding him back. But at some point, they are going to have to decide 1) he is a SS or 2) he isn't and either way, get him to the major leagues.

If you decide 1, deal with the errors, and get the learning curve on major league pitching going sooner rather than later.

If it's 2, deal someone, and stick him in the OF, or at 2B (where the athleticsm will be valuable on the DP, and his inability to catch the ball won't hurt him as much, since he'll have time to recover) and trade someone to make the opening. Cantu can play 3B instead of 2B, right? Isn't he a horrible 2B anyway? Or does he not have an arm?

If you want to stick Upton in the OF, then just trade Baldelli. He'd bring back a good arm or two, and he's always hurt anyway. Gomes, Crawford, Upton isn't a bad OF at all. Baldelli would bring back just as much in trade as Lugo would, IMO. But the point is, do what you have to do to get Upton up already.

And while you're at it, enough Travis Lee already. Bring up Delmon Young and stick him (or Gomes) at 1B if you have too many OF. I just think it makes sense to get these guys up. I know all about not wanting to start the arbitration clock, but enough already. You learn how to be a major league player in the major leagues, not in AAA. At least not once you've proven what these guys have. It's time to get this core out on the field and start teaching them how to win in the majors. In that respect, dealing for a veteran arm would be a good move for this team, if it's someone who can hold his own on the mound, and is the type of guy that will teach the young arms a thing or two.

I really think this team is about to turn the corner. This division is going to be fun to watch the next few years.
   15. Joe Dimino Posted: April 14, 2006 at 10:41 PM (#1964745)
And I don't think Chuck Lamar was the worst GM ever by a longshot.

He's amassed an amazing wealth of talent here over the years. Expansion teams take awhile to win when they don't go the route of the Diamondbacks or Marlins.

Some of the moves were questionable, but the guy managed to turn Victor Zambrano into Scott Kazmir.

I'd hire him as a farm director tomorrow, and it wouldn't kill me if I had to hire him as GM, if I had a team that was trying to rebuild from ground up. I don't think he did a bad job here at all. His hands were tied and he did a reasonable job, given the circumstances.
   16. Joe Dimino Posted: April 14, 2006 at 10:45 PM (#1964755)
BTW, I consider myself a huge Quantum Leap fan, and I'm not recognizing the quote at the top of the preview. What ep is that from?
   17. Superunknown Gary Geiger Counter Posted: April 14, 2006 at 10:51 PM (#1964769)
BTW, I consider myself a huge Quantum Leap fan, and I'm not recognizing the quote at the top of the preview. What ep is that from?


I thought that Samuel Beckett was the playwright who wrote, among other things, "Waiting For Godot" which is either sheer genius or boring depending on who you talk to.
   18. Dan Szymborski Posted: April 14, 2006 at 10:52 PM (#1964771)
BTW, I consider myself a huge Quantum Leap fan, and I'm not recognizing the quote at the top of the preview. What ep is that from?

I think, but I'm not positive, it's the episode where he jumps into the Irish writer who's struggling with his eventually famous play, Waiting for Godot.
   19. Jim Wisinski is waiting till next year Posted: April 14, 2006 at 11:06 PM (#1964793)
I don't like to make a habit of defending Chuck Lamar but the Townsend pick wasn't his fault, Lamar hasn't even run the draft at least the last two seasons (Tim Wilken did). The Townsend pick was a signability one forced on the scouting department by Naimoli who wasn't willing to approve a larger bonus for a first round pick.

Nice job Matt, pretty good article for an outsider.
   20. MM1f Posted: April 15, 2006 at 12:31 AM (#1964841)
"The chance to pull the trigger on a Andy Marte for Lugo deal was out there a couple times, and the Rays passed."

No, it wasn't. Not that we know for sure either way but neither side ever admitted it was offered, and there was enough word saying that it was merely some writers dream (thoughm admittedly i couldnt find whatever aricles i saw this in)
Basically what i mean is this is too unsure to say the this was exactly the case.

Generally a solid write up though.

BTW, Bankson, who did good in full year in AA last year and isnt in the bigs, isnt on the AAA Bulls or their DL either. Anyone know where hes at? are they making him repeat AA as he learns 3b?

And as for Weatcher, the numbers from last year support you and i wonder how he changed from when i saw him in the minors (i know he got hurt, maybe that was it) because he was a guy that sat 92-93 and could hit 94 a bunch but wasnt toally sharp with his command.
   21. Mike Emeigh Posted: April 15, 2006 at 12:26 PM (#1965257)
If you'd looked at this, you'd know that Bankston was indeed in Montgomery.

-- MWE
   22. Dewitty_Pun Posted: April 15, 2006 at 07:09 PM (#1965895)
The Rays lack power. Gomes is the only guy who consistenly hits homeruns. I guess Jorge Cantu</witty pun>.
   23. sliver7 Posted: April 16, 2006 at 01:31 PM (#1966852)
Its a dump. Worst park I've been too including Olympic, Old Memorial and Shea.
Maybe it's only because I've not been in a ton of Major League ballparks (The Trop and Metrodome, specifically), but I really don't understand the disdain for Tropicana Field.

It's comfortable (especially in the otherwise very uncomfortable summer months), you can see well from just about anywhere you sit, and it the area it's in has improved noticably in the last few years. They're also doing some pretty major renovations this year and it already looks much nicer as a result.

I like it, anyway.
   24. Jim Wisinski is waiting till next year Posted: April 16, 2006 at 04:31 PM (#1967495)
I don't get it either Sliver, though it probably has something to do with the team always being lousy and the stadium rarely being even 2/3 full. I've heard plenty of compliments from out of town people that have gone to a lot of games at other stadiums about the quality of the sightlines, the comfort of being indoors (if you think an outdoor stadium around here is a good idea, you haven't spent much time in Florida), and the nice features in it. The worst of the warehouse feel has been cleaned up with paint jobs and such and it has become a very pleasant place to watch a game.

The problem is the stadium hasn't been around for very long and has never had a good team in it. From all I hear Fenway isn't exactly a shining example of comfort, cleanliness, and beauty but because it's historic and has "atmosphere" it gets rave reviews.
   25. Mister High Standards Posted: April 16, 2006 at 05:18 PM (#1967590)

comfort, cleanliness, and beauty


Your certainly correct about cleanliness, and comfort... but in terms of Beauty Fenway is right up there.

It's not just the atmosphere, but it is the surrounding area, there is nothing there. You can't make an outing out of a trip to the park, because besides the park there is nothing there except a meat packing warehouse.

The sitelines are fine, the seats are spacious enough... but the park is not ateticly pleasing. The fact that the park is this new, and so damn ugly is amazing. It just doesn't compare to Jacobs, or Camden, or Fenway or PNC or Great American of the parks Ive been to. It doesn't even compare to Skydome or the BOB.

Not to mention indoor baseball is for the birds.
   26. Fred Garvin, Collateral Damage Posted: April 16, 2006 at 05:35 PM (#1967634)
I don't think it's appropriate to compare Tropicana to parks built in the last 10-15 years. I do think that it's fair to compare and denigrate it with Skydome, err Rogers Centre, however.

I'd be interested in the opinion of those who've been both to Tropicana and the Metrodome or Olympic Stadium.
   27. JGLB is so classy even his dog wears cashmere Posted: April 16, 2006 at 06:24 PM (#1967677)
Jim Wisinski Membership Posted: April 16, 2006 at 04:31 PM (#1967495)
(if you think an outdoor stadium around here is a good idea, you haven't spent much time in Florida


The Jax Suns Stadium is really nice, and the overhead provides enough shade to make a ballgame pleasent.

From the Keyboard of dJf Membership Posted: April 16, 2006 at 05:35 PM (#1967634)
I don't think it's appropriate to compare Tropicana to parks built in the last 10-15 years. I do think that it's fair to compare and denigrate it with Skydome, err Rogers Centre, however.

I'd be interested in the opinion of those who've been both to Tropicana and the Metrodome or Olympic Stadium.


Well I have been to The O, and the Skydome, and Pro Players, and RFK... and if The Trop is anything like those 4... well... yeah.. I don't think it sounds like a great place. I guess I'll see when I head down there, which right now looks like it will be in May for the homestand with the Marlins.
   28. Rafael Bellylard has become a Mets fan! Posted: April 17, 2006 at 07:28 AM (#1968295)
Not to mention indoor baseball is for the birds.

That's the problem with indoor baseball...there are no birds.

I go to minor league games in Lakeland a few times a year, and night games are usually comfortable. I'd hate to sit out there during the day, though.

The Trop isn't exactly bad. Antiseptic would have been a good description, except the place was kinda dirty whenever I went last season. The folks running it now seem to have cleaned the place up and reports are it's a more pleasant place for a game. I'll see sometime later this season when I go to a game.

I've been to a couple of worse venues. I remember going to a Father's Day game at Candlestick, having to sit under a blanket and drink hot chocolate. Then again, I went to the old Arlington Stadium in August once. Whoever's idea of metal bleachers in Texas should be fried in boiling oil, which was about what sitting there felt like. I swore the longer I sat there, the more I smelled bacon.
   29. Vaux, A.B.D. Posted: April 17, 2006 at 08:58 AM (#1968364)
But back when they were all different, and they all hurt just a little in different ways...



Everything good hurts.
   30. Teheran's Uranium Enriched Missiles Posted: April 17, 2006 at 09:56 AM (#1968442)
Not defending Trop, but Fenway is pretty much a dump to watch the game in, and way overpriced! Hell, its probably more fun to sit in a pub close to fenway and watch the game. it doesn't lack for atmosphere there!!
and huh, what was that about waiting for godot? :)

nice preview btw. anyone else worried by carl crawford? he stopped running late last year, and still hasn't turned the jets on. Also his quotes seem to reflect a slight attitude problem. he seemed to have a problem with his coaches. has there been any developments after the season has started?
   31. Fred Garvin, Collateral Damage Posted: April 17, 2006 at 09:59 AM (#1968449)
Crawford tripled yesterday and didn't seem to have a problem flying around the bases. I've never really sensed any hostility/attitude problem with him.
   32. Teheran's Uranium Enriched Missiles Posted: April 17, 2006 at 10:41 AM (#1968557)
I've never really sensed any hostility/attitude problem with him.

I remember couple of comments from him, where he said he no longer listened to the hitting coach, how he wanted to swing early in the count n look to hit more homers, as he wanted to be the "fantasy king"
and he was unhappy when Baldelli got the same contract as him
   33. Jim Wisinski is waiting till next year Posted: April 17, 2006 at 12:28 PM (#1968773)
Crawford has had some minor issues with sulking when he feels that someone else is getting too much attention instead of it being focused on him. He did indeed stop listening to Lee Elia last year but spent a lot of time working with him in 2003 and 2004 so I think it was just a disagreement with him specifically in '05 instead of a coachability issue. Crawford should be fine, I haven't seen anything yet this season that would really suggest a problem beyond a minor slump.
   34. StroMan Posted: April 17, 2006 at 05:14 PM (#1969379)
Speaking of coachability, it doesn't seem as if Ozzie Smith's lessons have sunk in yet for young BJ Upton (7 errors in 11 games) -- unless Ozzie was actually secretly working with him on base stealing ionstead (he's 8 for 9).
   35. Mike Emeigh Posted: April 18, 2006 at 01:55 PM (#1971355)
Speaking of coachability, it doesn't seem as if Ozzie Smith's lessons have sunk in yet for young BJ Upton (7 errors in 11 games)


I honestly think that Upton's problems stem from trying to do too much. He has tremendous lateral range, especially going toward the hole, and basically all that I think he needs to do is rein it in a bit and stop trying to force it.

-- MWE
   36. Fred Garvin, Collateral Damage Posted: April 18, 2006 at 03:33 PM (#1971655)
From what I've read (this season anyway), Upton's errors are almost all throwing.
   37. sliver7 Posted: April 24, 2006 at 06:42 AM (#1984970)
From what I've read (this season anyway), Upton's errors are almost all throwing.

...and a good-fielding first baseman (like Travis Lee) would do wonders to help that. ;-)
   38. Mike Emeigh Posted: April 24, 2006 at 10:46 AM (#1985293)
...and a good-fielding first baseman (like Travis Lee) would do wonders to help that.


I know this was intended to be a joke, but of the Upton errors I've seen, the Jolly Green Giant couldn't have been of any help.

-- MWE
   39. Jacob, Iowan in exile Posted: April 26, 2006 at 09:53 AM (#1990088)
I love the juxtaposition of "Looking forward to..." and "Tampa Bay Devil Rays." That is sheer genius.
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