2006 Tampa Bay Devil Rays

Ever tried. Ever failed. No matter. Try Again. Fail again. Fail better. – Samuel Beckett

Trying: 1998 and 1999 – 132 wins 192 losses.

Failed: 2000 and 2001 – 131 wins 192 losses.

Failed again: 2002 and 2003 – 118 wins 205 losses.

Failed better: 2004 and 2005 – 137 wins and 186 losses.

On the surface the Devil Ray’s 2005 season was once again a failure. Another 90 plus loss season, more managerial turmoil, pitchers unable to get outs, hitters unable to hit the long ball or draw walks, more injuries and ineffectiveness to pitchers drafted highly in the first round. Heck, even below the surface it was a failure.

Despite that, I’m encouraged for the first time in the Devil Rays history. The organization is better off today than it was a year ago. Let’s hit the high spots before we dig into the specifics.

1. Out with the old and in with the new – After 3 years of cellar dwelling Lou Piniella, had finally had enough. For the first time in his career the highly thought of Piniella couldn’t get anything out of a club. Piniella came to the Rays with a .538 career winning percentage in almost 2,500 games managed. Yet, in the nearly 500 he managed in purple and green he barely cracked .400 (.412). The perpetual managerial bridesmaid Joe Maddon takes over the reigns in 2006. Maddon, a progressive thinker, has been quoted in the past as a believer in advanced analysis - the long time bench coach of the Angels under Mike Scioscia has said all the right things. It will be interesting to see if he can translate it to on the field successes..

"If computers were available when Branch Rickey was alive, he'd have made them popular 50 years ago. ... We take advantage of technology in every other facet of life and we're going to disdain it in sports? I don't get that." - Joe Maddon.

2. Taking out the garbage – When Stuart Sternberg took over the Devil Rays in October, one of his first acts was to can the first and only general manager in the history of the Devil Rays in Chuck Lamar. Lamar may very well go down in history as the most incompetent General Manager in the history of the game. Considering the level of incompetence that has been shown throughout baseball history, that is certainly saying something. Before leaving, however, Lamar left the Devil Rays a reminder of his incompetence – the 2005 amateur draft, where the Rays selected Rice right hander Wade Townsend an expected easy sign, while passing on a number of far better prospects. Of course, to compound their incompentence they got a little unlucky as Townsend proceeded to get hurt during the Arizona Fall League, blowing out his elbow. Andrew Friedman, the teams Executive Vice President of Baseball Operations looks to be the new sheriff in town, though the front office hasn’t named an official “general manager”.
3. Break on through – Jorge Cantu got his first prolonged exposure to major league baseball and put up a monster season as a 23 year old. Cantu compiled 18 win shares, 17 with the bat. Since 1920, there have been 28 second baseman who have posted between 18 and 22 win shares at that age or younger. Those 28 have gone on to average 250 win shares for their career only 2 of which went on to post less than 100 career winshares. The odds are pretty good the Rays have a keeper in Cantu.
4. Twin Rookies – The Rays had two players in the top 10 of the rookie of the year voting, Jonny Gomes (third) and Scott Kazmir (9^th). While Gomes, may not ever hit like he did this year, Kazmir looks like if he stays healthy he will be the real deal, a legitimate 22 year-old front of the rotation starter. Something the Twin Titans of the AL East would drool to have.
5. Twin Prospects – While on the farm, the Rays have two of the five best prospects who played in the minors last year in BJ Upton and Delmon Young. Both players are potential 5 tool players, who have produced in the minors and have few question marks between them (Upton’s defense). You might not see Upton on prospect lists, because he used up his rookie eligibility in 2004, he is without a doubt a player with a very real chance of being an impact player at the major league level.

Despite the failure that took place on the field in 2005, organizationally it was a success. Keeping Kazmir healthy and on-track, the emergence of Cantu and Gomes, Crawford continues to look like a star in the making, Young and Upton continuing to work towards being a fixture at the Trop, the cashing in of Baez for a couple of arms with upside, the drastic increase in the trade value of Julio Lugo. With that said what should our expectations be for 2006? What do the Rays need to achieve for 2006 to be considered a success even though it likely won’t result in a playoff appearance or a World Series championship? In my mind this is where any season preview needs to start – what do they need to do to be a success?

1. Take a step forward. 95 wins isn’t a realistic target. However, another 60-70-win season should be considered a failure. I think the number should be 78 wins. It’s aggressive; an 11 win improvement over last year, and the most wins in the sad history of the Devil Ray’s. However, if the Rays plan on competing in 2008 or 2009 they need to start making steps forward now. As a step back is inevitable at some point.
2. Last year the Ray’s had four young players take major steps forward, in Kazmir, Gomes, Cantu and Orvella. Expecting the same kind of progress from four more players would be tough. However, based on the system and some of the other young players on the roster I think 2 is a reasonable and fair expectation. My guess? Upton, and McClung.
3. The big jump – One of their good young players Crawford, Rocco, Gomes, Kazmir, or Cantu needs to make the jump to super star level.
4. The Pipeline – Prospect guru John Sickles – Gives Rays prospects one A, and nine B’s, plus Upton as an un-graded player. A few B’s need to make the jump to A range, and they need to add a couple B’s net to the system, hopefully on the pitching side.
5. Be aggressive in the trade market – be sure to get reasonable return for Lugo and Huff.

The Rotation

Scott Kazmir

Kazmir entered last spring with a chance to win a rotation slot. This year the 22 year old pitcher will take the mound on opening day as the best pitcher in the history of the organization. Kazmir has electric stuff, and is praised for his makeup. His herky jerky mechanics and slight build has led some to conclude he is an injury waiting to happen. While I can’t speak to that, I can speak to his incredible second half. After the all star break – he went 7 and 2 with a 2.79 ERA, and averaged more than a K per inning. Kazmir is my number 1, fantasy sleeper this year. Kazmir is almost always drafted after the 12^th round in a 12-team league. I think he has a very good chance to be a top 15-fantasy starter this year, and a tremendous pitcher for Rays. The Rays should handle this young ace carefully for another year. He is the most important player in the organization.

Seth McClung

McClung was the Devil Rays Dr. Jekyll and Mr. Hyde during the 05 season. He started the year in the pen, and got shelled. He picked up a start in June and looked very good. He made 16 more starts over the last 3 months of the season, and like a box of chocolates you never knew what you were going to get. In July he had 4 quality starts in 5 opportunities. August was tougher for the 25 year old, with only 2 out 6 starts lasting 6 innings with 4 or fewer runs allowed. September was even more uneven. He started the month with a very good game against Toronto, then got shelled by Toronto. His next 2 starts he allowed 7 runs in each to Boston and New York. Then he closed his season, by ending Clevland season (at least contributing to their end of the year choke) with a gem of a 1-0 win on September 28th. Unlike Waechter and Hendrickson, McClung has above average major league stuff. McClung’s fastball looked to still be a notch or two slower than pre-TJ so there is a chance, that a he can add back a bit more velocity. I think McClung has a chance to breakout, and be a pretty good pitcher. With that said it’s important to remember he does have a career ERA over 6, in 150 innings of work, so betting the farm on his breakout would be at least somewhat unwise.

Casey Fossum

Fossum is likely miscast as a starter. The reed- thin lefty is now 28 and hasn’t been remotely useful since 2002, as a swingman for Boston. Fossum showed some flashes last season, which lead to him being given a 3 year contract extension, at reasonable enough money. Fossum throws low 90’s with decent secondary stuff. Where he has run into problems in the past is lack of constancy in terms of arm angle and release point. Perhaps new pitching coach Mike Butcher, can lend a hand.

Doug Waechter

The 25 year old righthander is a command in control specialist went 5 and 12 in 2005, allowing over 6 runs per game. He doesn’t strike anyone out, he is very hittable, and has a major case of gopheritis. He has two things in his favor, great command (less than 2 walks per 9) and age. I’m hoping with some experience he will learn to selectively nibble a bit more, and get his home run rate under control. Without that, he has no chance of being an asset to the Rays or anyone else. The Rays should give him 32 starts in 06, and see what he can do, he has less than 300 major league innings, so there is a chance a light bulb might still go off.

Mark Hendrickson

Lurch Hendricson, is a 32-year-old lefthanded innings eater, who will hopefully pitch for 2 months, as Edwin Jackson, Jason Hammel, Chris Seddon, and Jamie Shields work on some things in AAA in preparation for a big league career. We know what Hendrickson has and it isn’t much. He will make 30 starts, and he will pitch poorly. He isn’t a championship caliber player, and won’t ever develop into one. His 80 ERA+ should be able to be matched by one of the four pitchers mentioned above. In other words, Lurch should be used as a stopgap, and should only be used as long as Hammel, Jackson, Seddon and Shields aren’t ready.

The Bullpen

The bullpen in Tampa is unsettled, and it will be interesting to see how the skipper will piece together this rag a muffin crew over the course of the season. Chad Orvella, Jesus Colome, and Dan Miceli, Shawn Camp, and Chad Harville all competed for the closer job during the spring, with Dan Miceli getting the most chances for the time being. Maddon played it tight to the vest and has said he might go with some type of rotation or committee. Travis Harper, will work the middle innings. Beyond that your guess is as good as mine. Orvella, is probably the teams best reliever. He was solid last year in 50 innings of work. Colome, has electric stuff but is injury prone and has never been able to harness his stuff for any type on any type of consistent basis. Harper, is a solid but unspectacular major league pitcher, who was down right terrible last year but solid in both 03 and 04 for the Rays. Harville, and Miceli are veteran journeyman. Camp, isn’t a journeyman mostly because he isn’t good enough to have being given multiple shots to succeed, he did pitch like a journeyman in KC last year. If the Rays bullpen isn’t the worst in baseball in 06, Joe Maddon deserves manager of the year; this is an ugly bunch.

Position Players

Catcher

Toby Hall should continue to be the regular backstop for the Rays, with Josh Paul as his primary backup, and Kevin Cash will be stashed away in AAA. The catcher position will not be a strength for the Rays in 06. Hall was a roughly average major league catcher last year, but below in both 03 and 04. As a 31 year old with a good amount of wear and tear expecting any kind of mass improvement would be silly. Hope for another average year, and pray the wheels don’t fall off. Catcher is not an area of organizational strength; it’s likely that the Rays will have to go outside the organization to find their next regular catcher. Shawn Riggans is the only backstop at the minor league level who might eventually call a major league clubhouse the office.

First Base

The Rays best long-term option at first base looks to be Wes Bankston, who will open the year in Durham. John Sickles grades him a B+ prospect, but personally I think his power potential is a little light for a corner player to get that high of a mark. The Rays will once again open the season with Travis Lee at 1b. Lee is nothing more than filler. Lee is a relatively poor hitter relative to position, though he is a reasonable enough fielder. If Lee goes down, I would expect to see Aubrey Huff move across the diamond and play 1b, or perhaps Russell Branyan.

Second Base

The Rays look to be set at 2b for a long time to come. Jorge Cantu doesn’t walk much (19 unintentional BB’s in 05), but he does make contact (only 83 strikeouts), hits for average, and hits for power. As pitchers learn to respect his power, the walks will come. Cantu is a poor defender, he isn’t reliable – he doesn’t have good range, and he doesn’t turn the DP well. He will need to improve if he is to stay in the middle of the diamond.

Third Base

Been there done that. Aubrey Huff is back again at the hot corner. Hopefully, he will only be standing in the vicinity of third for about 3 months, while the Rays try and get some pitching prospects out of a team in contention. Huff is a nice player, in that he is a left handed stick, who can play any of the 4 corners of the diamond. He doesn’t play any of them well, but he can stand out there and not be too embarrassing. Huff had an off- year last year – the Rays are clearly hoping for a return to his .360/.500 form of the past. If not, the offers might be few and far between. Sean Burroughs looks to be the backup, and potential replacement when and if Huff is shipped out of town. Burroughs is a good gamble for the Rays, a once highly touted prospect – Sean hasn’t done anything to improve his stock over the last 2 years. Burroughs a good bet to hit near .300 if healthy hasn’t drawn enough walks or hit for enough power to be an asset. Yet if he can add a touch of either to his game, he will be a solid contributor to the Rays for a number of years to come. Think Bill Mueller, and in Mueller like fashion he will be starting the season on the DL(though surprisingly Billy Ball Game will not).

Shortstop

Tampa Bay is the tale of two shortstops. Julio Lugo, a consistent .340/.400 player with great speed, who may have had a break through year in 2005 and is just now turning 30 is the incumbent. The youngster is BJ Upton a 5 tool prospect, who the Rays don’t think can handle the position. Luckily, Joe Maddon doesn’t seem to agree as he has gone out of the way to praise BJ’s work ethic and improving defense all spring, while Lugo has battled nagging injuries. Lugo is a free agent at the end of the year – I expect him to be dealt prior to the trade deadline, and hand the reigns over to BJ for the next 5 years. Unfortunately I was hoping the Rays would pull the trigger on the deal in the offseason, as I doubt if Lugo’s value will ever be higher. The chance to pull the trigger on a Andy Marte for Lugo deal was out there a couple times, and the Rays passed. It will be interesting if they will be able to do better during the season. I tend to doubt it.

Left Field

Where Carl Crawford roams. Crawford is a 5 tool player, who entering his 24 year old season has almost 2300 plate appearances, and is established his current level of ability as .300/360/.450 with 50 stolen bases. Couple that with great defense and he is already a star. Yet, many people, myself among them, think this could be the tip of the iceberg. I wouldn’t be surprised to see him add another 20 points to his BA, and another 20-30 to his isolated power; my only question is when will he make that next jump.

Centerfield

Long-term, the Rays are still committed to Rocco Baldelli despite him missing the entire 2005 season and him starting the 2006 season on the DL. Baldelli has often drawn comparisons to Joe DiMaggio, no doubt due to his sweet right-handed swing and the Italian heritage he shares with Mr. Marilyn Monroe. With Baldelli out, centerfield is being manned by Damon Hollins and Joey Gathright. Hollins is a journeyman minor leaguer who is best suited for the role of a 5th outfielder. Gathright, is a young ball hawking speedster, whose bat is a question mark, but his glove is an exclamation point.

Rightfield

Jonny Gomes opens the year as the rightfielder, but he will eventually be pushed to DH when super prospect Delmon Young is ready. Gomes a slugger who burst on the scene last year, has tremendous power, and strong secondary skills. Young, who is starting the year in AAA is a 5 tool player, who looks like he will be a big league regular for a long time to come.

Designated Hitter

I expect the Rays will rotate position player through the DH slot until either Rocco comes off the DL or until Delmon is ready. Until then expect to see Huff, Gomes, Ty Wiggington, and Russell Branyan share time, until Gomes settles into the position long term.

Now if they could only figure out what to do about the name of the club.

2006 ZiPS Projections - Tampa Bay Devil Rays

Name               P     G   AB    R    H  2B  3B  HR  RBI   BB    K  SB  CS   AVG   OBP   SLG 
Gomes              rf  140  480   86  128  25   4  29   88   61  159  11   5  .267  .365  .517 
Branyan*           3b  117  355   52   89  20   1  22   64   50  128   3   2  .251  .347  .499 
Crawford*          lf  156  644  107  196  30  14  14   88   32   83  61  10  .304  .338  .460 
Huff*              rf  156  597   80  168  31   2  25  100   56   85   6   5  .281  .345  .466 
Cantu              2b  145  560   75  160  42   1  26  102   21   83   2   1  .286  .316  .504 
Lee*               1b  136  463   55  127  27   2  14   62   50   83   5   3  .274  .344  .432 
Baldelli           cf  150  622   96  182  26   5  18   87   36  114  21   8  .293  .337  .437 
Upton              ss  140  516   88  142  26   4  14   65   61  126  30  13  .275  .354  .422 
Wigginton          3b  145  509   66  134  33   2  17   70   54   88   7   3  .263  .336  .436 
Lugo               ss  153  586   82  167  34   5   7   66   59   85  28   8  .285  .353  .396 
Burroughs*         3b  119  424   61  123  16   3   5   51   34   53   5   2  .290  .352  .377 
Bankston           1b  111  381   55   93  19   1  16   57   38   89   4   2  .244  .319  .425 
Young              rf  135  509   77  138  20   3  19   75   26  106  20   9  .271  .314  .434 
Hollins            lf  130  406   50  104  23   1  13   58   32   79   7   3  .256  .313  .414 
Green              2b  114  344   51   87  18   2   7   39   31   84   3   2  .253  .326  .378 
Rose#              c    92  275   35   64  15   1   5   30   41   70   1   0  .233  .336  .349 
Riggans            c    81  265   37   69  17   0   5   33   19   58   1   1  .260  .317  .381 
Dukes#             cf  114  396   61   98  18   2  12   51   34   85  16   9  .247  .313  .394 
Gathright*         cf  125  417   70  118  14   4   1   34   34   89  39  17  .283  .342  .343 
Hall               c   130  433   33  118  21   0   6   49   20   41   0   1  .273  .310  .363 
Rivas              2b  119  386   53   99  19   4   8   43   15   54  12   4  .256  .287  .389 
Cash               c    85  291   34   64  19   1   9   36   27   82   1   1  .220  .291  .385 
Cortez*            2b  113  437   57  109  17   3   2   38   26   80  19   5  .249  .297  .316 
Christianson       c    79  274   34   60  12   0   7   31   24   75   1   1  .219  .285  .339 
Ordaz              2b   76  262   26   62  15   2   1   23   12   37   2   2  .237  .273  .321 
Paul               c    64  153   15   33   4   0   3   15   11   35   1   2  .216  .267  .301 
Johnson#           2b  122  462   62   98  15   4   5   36   28  108  30  12  .212  .264  .294 

Name                 W   L    ERA   G  GS     INN    H   ER  HR   BB    K 
Kazmir*             10   7   3.87  30  30   172.0  151   74  12   73  184 
Orvella              3   2   3.89  50   0    74.0   67   32   9   23   74 
Malaska*             4   3   4.26  45   3    76.0   72   36   6   34   62 
Miceli               4   4   4.57  58   0    65.0   62   33   9   26   59 
Colome               3   4   4.71  47   0    63.0   61   33   7   32   50 
Corcoran             3   3   4.83  37   1    69.0   67   37   7   35   53 
Harper               5   5   4.84  54   0    80.0   83   43  11   26   52 
Hines                3   3   4.94  48   0    71.0   75   39   6   34   45 
Camp                 4   6   5.02  52   4   104.0  119   58  13   31   62 
Carnes               3   4   5.02  33  11    95.0  105   53  14   31   59 
Miller               3   3   5.03  25  11    77.0   81   43  13   31   62 
Fossum*              8  11   5.09  34  27   152.0  158   86  22   60  123 
Hammel               7  10   5.12  25  25   153.0  166   87  24   53  111 
Mori                 2   4   5.14  47   0    56.0   52   32   8   31   53 
Harville             2   3   5.19  57   0    59.0   58   34   8   32   49 
Cressend             5   5   5.20  40   3    71.0   77   41  13   22   52 
Hendrickson*         9  12   5.21  31  31   178.0  211  103  23   47   85 
Stokes               5   7   5.22  18  18   100.0  110   58  16   34   66 
Driskill             4   8   5.26  39   7   106.0  119   62  23   27   77 
Switzer*             4   6   5.37  26  18   109.0  122   65  16   42   69 
Waechter             7  11   5.55  29  27   154.0  173   95  30   47   96 
McClung              6  11   5.58  35  17   108.0  104   67  17   55   97 
Miadich              2   5   5.74  42   0    47.0   38   30   6   43   64 
Tiffany*             4  10   5.82  22  21   102.0  108   66  23   43   96 
Franklin*            4   7   5.88  46  17   127.0  140   83  24   57   79 
Seddon*              7  13   5.94  27  27   144.0  161   95  25   69  100 
Jackson              6  14   5.94  29  26   153.0  175  101  25   74   90 

Disclaimer:  ZiPS projections are computer-based projections of performance.  
Performances have not been allocated to predicted playing time in the majors - 
many of the players listed above are unlikely to play in the majors at all in 2006.  
ZiPS is projecting equivalent production - a .240 ZiPS projection may end up 
being .280 in AAA or .300 in AA, for example.  Whether or not a player will play 
is one of many non-statistical factors one has to take into account when predicting 
the future.