2006 Texas Rangers

In the study of ancient civilizations, scholars have created the concept of tropes, which are themes that seem to recur over and over again in stories about a particular person, region, or a god that the people worship. You know, Zeus always carries that lightning bolt and Ionian Greeks are always pouring wine everywhere at the drop of a hat. It’s certainly hard to compare the 2006 Rangers with those wacky Olympians (even though it seems that Rod Barajas must emerged whole from the cranium of Buck Showalter, because that’s the only explanation for Buck’s bizarre fascination with him), but they do have one stunningly big trope that has dogged them throughout the entire history of the franchise: they wear breastplates with the head of Medusa on them.

What? Oh, sorry, the old train of thought went off the railroad tracks there.

It’s a lack of pitching, of course, but more to the point, a lack of starting pitching. To that end, new Rangers General Manager Jon Daniels took over the reins in the fall and immediately set about shaping this team in the image of something other than its forebears. A free agent signing and two trades later, the rotation was vastly overhauled. The question, as always, is whether it’s been changed for the better.

Major Offseason Moves

December 12th – The Rangers acquire Vicente Padilla from the Philadelphia Phillies for a player to be named later, which quickly turns out to be Ricardo Rodriguez.

December 13th – In their best off-season move, the Rangers acquire Brad Wilkerson, Terrmel Sledge, and Armando Galarraga from Washington in exchange for 2B/OF/malcontent Alfonso Soriano.

December 29th – The Rangers sign Kevin Millwood to a 5 year, 62 million dollar contract.

January 4th – The Rangers acquire Adam Eaton, Akinori Otsuka, and Billy Killian in exchange for Chris Young, Adrian Gonzalez, and Terrmel Sledge (official date, the trade was consummated on December 20th)

So, what does all this mean?

Starting Pitching

The Rangers ended last season with some small beacons of hope for 2006’s starting rotation. Chris Young developed nicely in 2005, and Kameron Loe seemed to be coming along with something resembling progress. At the beginning of the offseason there were obvious questions, like: Should we resign Kenny Rogers? Should Loe take a spot in the rotation for 2006, where should he be slotted? Can we acquire a free agent pitcher to take over a top spot in the rotation? The Detroit Tigers made the re-signing of Rogers a ridiculous goal when they offered him two years and sixteen million dollars. Kameron Loe slotted in nicely into the 4th slot, and Kevin Millwood and inked that contract mentioned above. On top of that, the Phillies took Ricardo Rodriguez, who had apparently lost all favor since his horrific injury in 2004, and returned a quality major league starter in Vicente Padilla.

However, the departure of Chris Young and the addition of Adam Eaton fundamentally changed the rotation in ways that the Rangers are just now starting to see. Gone is the 6’10” former basketball player who most fans had assumed would be (for better or worse) the #2 pitcher when Thomas Diamond, John Danks, and Edison Volquez were ready for prime time in late 2006 and early 2007. In is the mercurial Eaton. Out is the flyball pitcher who was signed cheaply for the next half-decade. In is the flyballingest of flyball pitchers, horribly suited to his new home park and only signed through the end of 2006.

So, what does the rotation look like? Well, going into the season, it’s going to be Millwood, Eaton, Padilla, Loe, and RA Dickey. Excepting Dickey, no one to gnash your teeth over, but certainly no one to get excited over. Kameron Loe throws groundballs, which is always a bonus when you’re pitching with the jetstream. RA Dickey, deciding that “The Thang” wasn’t a weird enough pitch for a major league pitcher, developed a knuckleball in 2005 and will be featuring it for the first time this year in an attempt to finally stick with this Rangers team.

At least, this was the plan before Eaton injured his middle finger, resulting in him being sidelined for up to two months. The Rangers responded by trading David Dellucci to the Phillies for Robinson Tejeda.

Bullpen

As countless teams have proven to themselves, their fans, and neutral observers year after year, predicting bullpen performance is about as easy as catching one of the aforementioned lightning bolts of Zeus while standing on your head and reciting The Argonautica backwards. Francisco Cordero returns from an injured offseason and pitching in the World Baseball Classic to once again take the closer role. Otsuka tries to regain the glory of his 2004, or at least replicate his workmanlike 2005. Brian Shouse tries to keep shutting down left-handed batters with his funky delivery, Joaquin Benoit and CJ Wilson try to match last year’s performance, and all we know is that at least one of these guys will self-destruct and one guy that is nowhere near anybody’s radar right now will fill in and do a job somewhere between admirably plucky and out-and-out good. And then next year, we’ll all wonder whether or not he can repeat his performance.

Lineup

Infield

What do we have here? Let’s see, we have known quantities at first base, shortstop, and third base. Mark Teixeira is developing into exactly the kind of player the Rangers hoped for when they drafted him out of Georgia Tech. Michael Young and Hank Blalock, while overrated by the masses, are certainly the kinds of players that you can build around. No big surprises. Ian Kinsler takes over at second after the trade of Soriano and beating out Mark DeRosa in spring training. He’ll be batting ninth unless Rod Barajas bottoms out early in the season and Zeus, er, Buck Showalter, slips him down there.

Outfield

Perhaps the biggest surprise of the offseason was the seemingly league-wide interest in Kevin Mench. Mench has always been something of an organizational soldier: the mindset of a Rusty Greer without the numbers. Last year he improved to 25 homers, but from the way the Jon Daniels’ phone heated up in the offseason, you’d think that this was 1984 and 25 homers meant something. Even after all of that, the Rangers stayed with what brung ‘em and are slotting Mench into the starting rightfielder spot.

The incoming Brad Wilkerson brings a good on-base percentage, but is forced by Laynce Nix’s injury to start the season in center field. The Rangers will use this season to determine if Wilkerson is a long-term solution in the outfield, or if they can package his reasonable contract and underrated skillset into something else.

With Dellucci now in Philadelphia, journeyman outfielder Adrian Brown grabbed the last outfield job, to the joy of none.

DH

Phil Nevin took the job this spring, and with the assignment of Jason Botts to AAA Frisco, will probably hold on to it for the foreseeable future. He’s certainly not the hitter he was, and the Rangers would love to not have to pay him the millions that he’s still owed, but such is the price of finding a sucker to take Chan Ho Park. While they’re stuck with him, they’ll hope that he can stay healthy and produce while only having to stroll up to the plate 4 or 5 times a game.

Bench

Backups at catcher, middle infield, third base, and outfield rule the day. Gerald Laird is being and will continue to be overlooked by Showalter, Marshall McDougall is just praying for at bats, Laynce Nix is still recovering from injury, and Gary Matthews, Jr. is praying for injuries and/or slumps so that he can see significant at bats. Nothing to see here.

No, really, what does all this mean?

You know, I’m really sick of you and your questions. But okay, what’s the upshot here? The Rangers kept a young offensive core intact except for sliding out Soriano and sliding in Wilkerson. The pitching staff is remodeled, but not necessarily that much better. The AL West isn’t what it used to be, but will the changes be enough? Can the Rangers take that 79-83 record of last year, turn in some improvements, reach 90 wins, and hope that the Angels and/or A’s stumble? They can, but the house money is on no.

So while there are obvious hopeful signs, it looks like the Rangers will continue another trope of theirs (excepting the late-90’s): missing the playoffs.

2006 ZiPS Projections - Texas Rangers

Name               P     G   AB    R    H  2B  3B  HR  RBI   BB    K  SB  CS   AVG   OBP   SLG 
Teixeira#          1b  155  606  104  179  37   3  44  130   71  117   4   1  .295  .377  .584 
Wilkerson*         lf  151  554   99  155  44   4  24  102   94  148   9   8  .280  .387  .504 
Young              ss  160  673  110  217  38   5  21   98   53   93   6   3  .322  .374  .487 
Dellucci*          rf  121  393   79   97  15   3  23   65   64  108   5   3  .247  .357  .476 
McDougall          3b  101  359   56   99  20   1  14   57   42   67   4   2  .276  .352  .454 
Hyzdu              rf  121  363   76   88  28   1  16   71   61   78   4   3  .242  .355  .457 
Blalock*           3b  160  640   92  174  35   1  31  103   60  127   1   1  .272  .335  .475 
Nevin              1b  111  415   64  112  21   1  18   80   38  101   2   0  .270  .332  .455 
Mench              lf  139  508   67  134  31   2  24   79   45   65   3   2  .264  .327  .474 
Botts#             1b  140  499   66  128  27   3  22   79   53  141   4   3  .257  .334  .455 
Laird              c    93  328   57   87  14   2  14   48   30   68   6   3  .265  .333  .448 
Sarge Lite#        rf  126  442   67  115  26   4  14   58   46   86   8   3  .260  .327  .432 
Jimenez#           2b  135  481   76  126  25   2   9   57   73   72  10   5  .262  .358  .378 
Eldridge#          lf  104  328   62   86  26   2   4   34   45   82   9   5  .262  .355  .390 
Nix*               cf  105  370   56   94  20   3  16   55   25   86   3   1  .254  .303  .454 
Smith*             lf   86  302   45   77  19   2  11   43   20   56   3   1  .255  .304  .440 
Kinsler            ss  127  476   91  118  28   1  19   69   37   77   7   3  .248  .310  .431 
Burke              c    99  313   46   80  16   1   8   44   28   54   1   2  .256  .330  .390 
Barajas            c   113  378   48   94  23   0  17   57   22   65   0   0  .249  .297  .444 
DeRosa             2b   90  229   33   60  11   0   6   28   19   41   1   1  .262  .324  .389 
Olson              3b  104  350   55   90  24   0   9   40   29   74   6   5  .257  .320  .403 
Metcalf            3b  116  414   55   97  24   4  13   53   26  110   4   2  .234  .286  .406 
Baldiris           3b  135  485   61  123  21   3   6   44   38   79   5   3  .254  .313  .346 
Meyer*             ss  110  420   58  109  20   3   2   39   27   80  10   4  .260  .307  .336 
Brown#             cf  132  498   76  122  20   4   5   43   45   75  20  12  .245  .308  .331 
Arias              ss  123  474   61  128  18   4   4   44   15   46  16   9  .270  .293  .350 
Yan#               2b  126  483   70  127  13   2   2   38   34   53  37  15  .263  .312  .311 
Brewer             ss  105  366   52   87  16   1   6   36   21   59   4   4  .238  .282  .336 

Name                 W   L    ERA   G  GS     INN    H   ER  HR   BB    K 
Cordero              5   2   3.28  69   0    74.0   61   27   4   33   82 
Francisco            3   2   3.56  39   0    43.0   33   17   3   24   52 
Feldman              2   2   3.87  60   0    79.0   79   34   6   28   46 
Ramirez*             4   2   3.97  44   0    59.0   63   26   7   10   31 
Otsuka               6   4   4.04  69   0    69.0   63   31   5   30   62 
Shouse*              2   1   4.08  61   0    53.0   53   24   5   18   34 
Millwood            12   8   4.12  30  30   188.0  197   86  21   54  137 
Loe                 11   8   4.34  42  20   141.0  145   68  17   47   94 
Carlson*             3   3   4.42  54   0    59.0   61   29   8   17   50 
Alfonseca            3   3   4.42  61   0    59.0   60   29   4   25   41 
Riley*               6   5   4.66  24  22   110.0  109   57  11   46   80 
Diamond              7   7   4.67  25  25   135.0  131   70  17   63  125 
Benoit               6   5   4.83  32  15   108.0  106   58  18   46   95 
Eaton               10  10   4.87  29  28   170.0  184   92  26   50  119 
Dominguez            6   7   4.88  33  18   120.0  130   65  20   40   81 
Littleton            5   6   4.92  39  11   119.0  136   65  14   40   62 
Padilla             10  11   4.99  27  27   157.0  169   87  21   57   98 
Bauer                4   6   5.00  36  11    99.0  105   55  12   41   59 
Baker                7   8   5.03  30  23   143.0  165   80  23   39   87 
Wasdin               2   3   5.14  25   7    70.0   80   40  12   21   39 
Dickey               8  10   5.20  31  19   142.0  165   82  21   44   84 
Danks*               8   9   5.36  28  25   151.0  172   90  27   52  105 
Castro*              3   6   5.50  50   0    72.0   77   44   9   38   53 
Masset               7  10   5.60  26  23   156.0  188   97  26   53   78 
Bazzell              5   7   5.66  35  10   105.0  127   66  19   36   57 
Rupe                 8  11   5.72  29  26   159.0  188  101  29   62   94 
Anderson*            7  11   5.76  30  25   161.0  196  103  33   43   70 
Volquez              7  10   5.83  28  24   139.0  165   90  30   44  102 
Bukvich              2   4   5.87  42   0    46.0   41   30   7   39   50 
Walker*              1   3   6.10  55   1    59.0   63   40  13   31   50 
Leicester            4   9   6.34  38  14   105.0  115   74  19   59   78 

Disclaimer:  ZiPS projections are computer-based projections of performance.  
Performances have not been allocated to predicted playing time in the majors - 
many of the players listed above are unlikely to play in the majors at all in 2006.  
ZiPS is projecting equivalent production - a .240 ZiPS projection may end up 
being .280 in AAA or .300 in AA, for example.  Whether or not a player will play 
is one of many non-statistical factors one has to take into account when predicting 
the future.