2006 Washington Nationals

In the DC press this spring, the Nationals have been placing ads in local newspapers advertising the “Bleacher Bounce.” As anyone who has attended a Nats’ game and sat in the field level seats can verify, the seats do indeed bounce, as they are just a temporary set-up in deference to RFK’s longer tenured residents, DC United. Personally, I’ve never been a fan of the “Bounce”—it tends to spill my beer—but it is evidently popular enough that architects are attempting to design the seats in the new stadium to replicate the effect.

An equally popular bounce in the Nation’s Capital last year was that of the team’s record, which rose from just sixty-seven wins in Montreal in 2004 up fourteen to eighty-one in their debut season, including a long stretch leading the NL East. For 2006, the question is whether the Nationals can continue on the upward part of that bounce or whether the Plexiglas Principle will act on the Nats like gravity acts on their fans enjoying the Bounce, crashing back to earth.

Catcher

Brian Schneider and a Cast of Thousands

Brain Schneider, just back from a turn with Team USA, will once again be the starter for the Nats in 2006. A home-grown Natspos product, Schneider is in the midst of his prime and posted respectable numbers for a catcher in RFK last year; although he ranked just ninth in VORP among NL catchers, he was within five runs of third place. Barring an unforeseen decline, Schneider should continue to perform about as well or better as he did in 2005, doing a solid job behind the plate.

On the Nats’ website, Matt LeCroy is listed as the back-up catcher, which as anyone who has ever seen Matt LeCroy catch (or, come to that, just seen Matt LeCroy) can tell you is bad news. Happily, the Nats invited a small army of catchers to camp, including Alberto Castillo, Mike DiFelice and BTF Encyclopedia namesake Wiki Gonzalez. Gonzalez is hitting over .400 so far in Spring Training and seems to have the inside track for the moment but given that the three are essentially interchangeable mediocrities, who gets the call may not be decided until the last week of camp, and likely won’t much matter anyway.

First Base

Nick Johnson and a(nother) Cast of Thousands

Nick Johnson, the prodigal son many Yankee fans hoped would eventually return after departing in the Javy Vazquez deal has instead put down his roots in DC, signing a three- year contract extension good for sixteen and a half million over the life of the deal. There has never been any doubt about Johnson’s talent, especially with the stick, but major questions remain about his health. Last season Johnson played just one hundred and thirty-one games, and that represented his highest Major League total since 2002 and only the second time he cracked the hundred games marker. If Johnson can repeat his 2005 line and stay healthy for a hundred and fifty plus games, he will be one of the best hitters in baseball. That “if” cannot be writ large enough, however.

Assuming his time behind the plate is extremely limited, LeCroy figures to see much of his time as a pinch-hitter (and DH during interleague road games), unless Johnson suffers an injury at which point he would presumably slip into the starting job. LeCroy mashes lefties, to the tune of .307/.382/.554 the last three years, but suffers profoundly when facing non-portsiders. Robert Fick, LeCroy’s equal behind the plate, recent had elbow surgery but the team expects him to be ready for Opening Day. A lefty bat, Fick can be expected to see time as a pinch-hitter and perhaps the LHB side of a post-Johnson platoon.

Second Base

Jose Vidro and Marlon Anderson

Now that the Alfonso Soriano has, albeit reluctantly, taken his place in left field for the Nats, the keystone figures to be manned by Jose Vidro, the team’s stalwart second baseman since the days of Stade Olympique. Although just thirty-one this season, Vidro’s best days seem to be behind him, as his both his numbers and health have declined the past two years. Last year represented a major step back for Vidro, however, and if he can stay healthy all of the year, he is still young enough that a rebound season of some extent is possible. Sadly for the Nats, the Vidro of 2000, who hit .330 while playing in a hundred and fifty games is probably gone for good, but a return even to the Vidro of 2004 would be a boost.

Vidro is backed-up by one-time Philly and current journeyman Marlon Anderson, now working on his fifth team in as many seasons. Anderson is a below average hitter but provides adequate defense at the position and can also play first base and the outfield; should Vidro go down, it will be interesting to see how the Nats respond, whether sticking with Anderson or moving Soriano back to his preferred position.

Shortstop

Royce Clayton or, perhaps, Cristian Guzman

Clayton was initially brought into Nationals camp as a non-roster invitee, intended to provide some competition to incumbent starter Cristian Guzman. Guzman’s debut season for the Washingtonians was an almost unmitigated disaster; he needed a scorching September (.325, .850 OPS) just to raise his season numbers up to “embarrassing.” The best laid plans went awry, however, when it was discovered Guzman had suffered a tear in his shoulder. He is hoping to avoid surgery through a combination of rest and rehab, but Guzman will at least miss Opening Day and possibly much longer.

That leaves the shortstop job to Clayton. The journeyman infielder is thirty-six but still regarded as an excellent defensive shortstop, although age means he is no longer at the elite level he once was. Pitchers remains Clayton’s bête noire, however, as he has never been confused with a key member of any offense, although he has settled into something of a mediocre groove lately, posting OPS+ between 64 and 76 the last four years. Last year Nats shortstops posted a line that would’ve been embarrassing in 1905, let alone 2005, hitting a collective .227/.275/.308 with just thirty-two extra base hits, so even a typical Clayton season should represent an upgrade.

Third Base

Ryan Zimmerman

For the all the abuse he receives, late-career Vinny Castilla has combined being a competent hitter and good defender into an all-around decent package. His performance for the Nationals last year more or less fit that to a tee, but he has been replaced, traded to San Diego to make way from Ryan Zimmerman, far and away the team’s best prospect. Drafted out of the University of Virginia, Zimmerman made an immediate impact, crushing minor league pitching like a rolling stone before being called up in September where he hit just under .400 in less than sixty at-bats. Zimmerman came into camp as the starting third baseman and if he holds the job all season—an extreme likelihood barring injury—he will be the first player to play 120 games the season after he was drafted since Pete Incaviglia.

Zimmerman is hailed for both his defense, which is good enough that the Nationals toyed with moving him to shortstop, and his work with the lumber. He has drawn comparisons from the natural (David Wright) to the extreme (Albert Pujols). Matching the debut season of either of those players, especially the latter, would be a fantastic accomplishment for Zimmerman. For now, most likely he’ll go his way (and the Nats will go theirs).

Left Field

Alfonso Soriano and Marlon Byrd

So, here we are. Or, more accurately, here he is, Alfonso Soriano playing left field for the Nationals on TV behind me as I write this. After giving new meaning to the phrase “battle for position” Soriano (or his agent) took some career advice from Falstaff and decided that discretion is the better part of valor and thus took his place in left field. What exactly can be expected of Soriano this year is something of an open question. Arguably no player benefited more from playing in Texas the last few years, and it is possible that come August, Soriano might have an OBP below .300 and more deep fly-outs than I had Jim Bowden jokes in the earlier draft of this piece. The Alfonso Soriano era is off to an inauspicious start in Washington and seems unlikely to improve. The most interesting question might be if it lasts the whole season or if Jim Bowden decides to cut his losses and sends Soriano away at the trade deadline.

Backing up Soriano, among others in the outfield, is former Philly Marlon Byrd. Acquired for Endy Chavez last year, Byrd has never quite lived up to his early hype and performance in 2003, spending most of his career as a part-time player and back-up outfielder. He figures to fill the latter role adequately in DC this year.

Center Field

Ryan Church and Brandon Watson

Having given up Brad Wilkerson for Soriano, in a deal that will almost certainly look (even more) terrible when Wilkerson discovers the joys of hitting in Texas, this year the job will be given to Ryan Church. A University of Nevada product, Church saw his first significant big-league time last season, bouncing around the outfield, while posting decent numbers. It seems a stretch for Church to repeat his 2005 numbers, but he figures to be at least an average hitter with potential for more.

Backing-up Church is Brandon Watson. Watson has worked his way, slowly but steadily, through the Natspos minor league system, capped off by hitting .355 in New Orleans last year. He’s probably not quite that good a hitter, but Watson can contribute with both the bat and glove.

Right Field

Jose Guillen and Byrd/Watson

Since his infamous blow-up with the Angels in 2004, Jose Guillen has perhaps had greater scrutiny on him than any other players. That being said, Guillen succeeded in being largely a good citizen and good hitter during his first season in Washington. Just entering his age thirty season, despite having seemingly been around forever, Guillen has matured over the last couple of years into a reliable power hitter, albeit one never crazy about taking ball four. He also features a strong arm in right field and if not for his still debatable personality could be a key part of almost any team.

The biggest question with Guillen this season concerns his left wrist tendon and the injury suffered thereto. Early reports said surgery would be required, sidelining him for around three months, but after a second opinion it was decided to proceed with rehab instead. Guillen is expected to be ready for Opening Day but must stay healthy since the drop from him to either Byrd or Watson would be sharp.

Starting Pitchers

Livan Herenandez, John Patterson, Ramon Ortiz, Pitchers to be Determined

The rotation is anchored, as it has been for the past few years, by anchor-sized Livan Hernandez. Hernandez, who seems to have developed the talent for Christy Mathewson’s “pitching in a pinch,” has consumed innings like the post-game buffet in his years with the Natspos, throwing an average of almost two hundred and forty-five the last three years, leading the league each time. He’s done this while posting quality ERA numbers, although the work load might be taking its toll as Hernandez has seen his ERA+ decline since 2003, a decline not even RFK could mask last year. Until he proves incapable of doing so, however, Frank Robinson will continue to expect two hundred and thirty (or more) good innings out of his stout stalwart.

Acquired from the Diamondbacks for Randy Choate (no, really), John Patterson had his break-out season last year throwing nearly two hundred innings with a 3.13 ERA while ranking in the top ten in K/9, Ks, shutouts and ERA+. Patterson, like the team itself, will be hoping to avoid a bounce back to mediocrity this year, but at age twenty-eight that seems a doable goal and another strong year might push Patterson ahead of Hernandez as the team’s best starter.

Once known as “Little Pedro,” Ramon Ortiz was one of the players who underwent remarkable aging in the post-9/11 visa environment, and it was discovered that “Little Pedro” was actually only a year younger than “Big Pedro.” As you might imagine, this put something of a damper on what had been perceived as great potential. Like fellow off-season pick-up Eric Milton, Ortiz was an absolute train wreck for the Reds in 2005, and joined the Nationals this year looking for redemption. Ortiz has problems with the long ball so RFK should help him, and the chance for a rebound league-average season is there. The team just needs hope that Ortiz’ gruesome 6.50 spring training ERA doesn’t follow him North.

Candidates for the fourth and fifth starter spots include the pair with the current inside track, Tony Armas and Ryan Dreese, as well as Jon Rauch (who seems to be a favorite of manager Frank Robinson but is currently slotted as the team’s long man) and Pedro Astacio. Astacio is having an even worse spring than Ortiz, hurting his chance but injuries and ineffectiveness have plagued nearly every member of this quartet at some point or another, so perhaps the safest bet is that whichever two emerge as the starters when the Nationals move north are unlikely to be the same two when they close their season.

Bullpen

Chad Cordero (Closer), Gary Majewski, Joey Eischen, Travis Hughes

Probably the strongest part of the 2005 Nationals, the bullpen was made up mostly of unknowns that worked a large number of innings protecting the small leads the Nats’ offense provided. The pen’s best pitcher Chad “The Chief” Cordero returns to the closing role and although he may be hard pressed to retain his saves title, he figures to remain effective, especially if he can return to the form that found him striking out more than a man per inning in 2004.

The set-up men for Cordero include my personal favorite National, Team USA member Gary Majewski, LOOGY Joey Eischen, and Travis Hughes. The Nats pen was weakened, of course, by the loss of Luis Ayala for the season during the WBC and the defection of Hector Carrasco to the Angels. Those looking to help pick up some of the slack include Mike Stanton, Jason Bergmann and the losers of the battle for the last spots in the rotation. Given the often erratic performance of relievers, combined with their 2005 workload, some (if not many) of these pitchers figure to suffer declines in 2006.

Outlook

As a transplanted Washingtonian—at least until May—it would be nice to see the Nationals return to their early season form of 2005. Despite the potential for upgrades at some positions, however, that would seem unlikely; and but for the decimated Marlins I would pick the Nationals for the NL East basement. Chances of finishing ahead of Philadelphia, the Mets or Atlanta are quite long; the Nats will need to find more players like Ryan Zimmerman and fewer like Cristian Guzman to give the people of DC the winner they’ve been waiting for since 1924.

2006 ZiPS Projections - Washington Nationals

Name               P     G   AB    R    H  2B  3B  HR  RBI   BB    K  SB  CS   AVG   OBP   SLG 
Johnson*           1b  121  413   60  117  30   2  15   65   75   82   3   6  .283  .402  .475 
Vidro#             2b  110  406   51  119  26   1  11   53   48   43   1   1  .293  .368  .443 
Church*            lf  112  344   51   97  19   3  12   52   34   78   2   1  .282  .352  .459 
Guillen            lf  145  538   75  153  30   2  23   84   31  101   2   2  .284  .341  .476 
Zimmerman          3b   87  291   42   90  29   0   7   39   14   46   1   4  .309  .343  .481 
Larson             3b   68  239   31   59  15   1  11   40   22   70   1   1  .247  .318  .456 
LeCroy             1b  100  310   27   78  12   0  12   43   31   84   0   0  .252  .325  .406 
Byrd               cf  116  416   57  110  26   2   8   48   35   78   8   2  .264  .325  .394 
Vento              rf  129  479   58  127  30   1  11   63   36   91   2   3  .265  .326  .401 
Soriano            2b  153  640   85  159  35   3  27   79   35  130  24   4  .248  .295  .439 
Ward*              1b  124  401   40  103  23   1  13   57   31   60   0   2  .257  .311  .416 
Schneider*         c   119  378   34   98  20   1   9   45   34   61   1   1  .259  .325  .389 
Fick*              1b  114  336   34   86  18   1   7   44   36   51   1   1  .256  .329  .378 
Gonzalez           c    59  196   23   51  12   1   3   22   15   18   0   0  .260  .316  .378 
Jackson            2b  120  300   48   76  14   1   5   30   35   59  13   5  .253  .334  .357 
Broadway*          1b  106  357   47   82  17   1  13   44   38   84   2   1  .230  .307  .392 
Escobar            cf  116  427   53  106  19   2  15   57   27  133   4   3  .248  .297  .407 
Castro#            2b  127  475   65  136  17   3   1   35   34   49  28  11  .286  .331  .341 
Casto*             3b  131  455   62  105  31   2  11   56   44   92   3   2  .231  .305  .380 
Harris             3b  129  446   59  106  23   3  11   56   33   70   4   3  .238  .295  .377 
Anderson*          2b  132  367   36   87  18   1   7   37   30   52   7   3  .237  .296  .349 
Watson*            cf  145  527   77  146  15   3   2   40   30   60  25  15  .277  .319  .328 
Tucker*            rf  127  372   41   80  16   3   8   40   47   85   5   5  .215  .304  .339 
DiFelice           c    82  263   21   56  14   0   7   31   24   58   1   1  .213  .287  .346 
Guerrero           cf  114  361   43   83  12   2  11   43   21  105   9   6  .230  .278  .366 
Ust                3b  120  435   47  102  25   1   9   46   19   98   2   2  .234  .271  .359 
Belcher*           lf   90  282   27   65  15   0   5   27   16   45   4   2  .230  .280  .337 
Diaz               cf  128  470   56  111  30   3   9   51   15   71  10   7  .236  .268  .370 
Godwin*            cf  132  479   65  114  18   4   7   39   37   88  24  16  .238  .297  .336 
Labandeira         ss  110  388   44   90  19   1   4   32   32   72   6   5  .232  .297  .317 
Blanco             rf   60  168   16   35   7   0   5   19    8   41   1   0  .208  .272  .339 
Guzman#            ss  145  518   55  125  23   6   5   47   28   74   9   6  .241  .279  .338 
Medrano            ss  117  402   48   94  18   1   2   33   33   51   3   2  .234  .298  .299 
Clayton            ss  143  523   51  117  23   3   4   42   43  103   7   4  .224  .283  .302 
Wilson             c    95  274   26   59  13   0   3   22   16   29   2   2  .215  .269  .296 
Dorta              2b  110  358   40   78  13   0   5   31   25   43  14   9  .218  .272  .296 
Mateo#             2b   68  202   24   42   8   2   1   14   16   45   8   5  .208  .274  .282 

Name                 W   L    ERA   G  GS     INN    H   ER  HR   BB    K 
Cordero              4   3   3.08  72   0    76.0   60   26   7   27   75 
Eischen*             3   2   3.12  61   0    52.0   45   18   3   16   46 
Ayala               10   6   3.16  72   0    77.0   74   27   6   15   52 
Stanton*             4   3   3.71  68   0    68.0   57   28   5   25   36 
Patterson            7   7   3.72  27  27   162.0  142   67  15   59  155 
Majewski             5   4   3.87  68   1    79.0   73   34   3   36   58 
Tucker               3   2   3.88  44   3    65.0   65   28   5   17   44 
Hernandez           13  12   3.96  35  35   243.0  235  107  22   81  172 
Hill                 8   9   4.24  23  23   119.0  122   56   9   42   58 
Crowell*             3   4   4.28  55   0    61.0   63   29   7   17   47 
Gryboski             3   2   4.29  57   0    42.0   45   20   2   19   22 
Drese                9  11   4.38  27  27   156.0  167   76   9   53   75 
Lawrence            11  14   4.39  33  33   201.0  201   98  22   56  122 
Astacio              7   7   4.58  22  20   110.0  115   56  14   34   69 
Bergmann             4   5   4.70  56   1    92.0   86   48  12   39   83 
Rauch                5   7   4.73  25  17    99.0   99   52  14   33   79 
Hughes               4   6   4.73  61   0    78.0   72   41   8   44   73 
Beltran              2   3   4.75  48   1    53.0   50   28   6   30   48 
Rodriguez            4   4   4.83  60   0    54.0   53   29   6   25   41 
Watkins              5   7   4.94  35  17   124.0  134   68  17   45   81 
Ortiz                7  13   4.94  31  27   164.0  177   90  23   55   95 
Good                 5   8   5.09  26  20   122.0  135   69  22   34   78 
Corcoran             3   4   5.12  44   1    58.0   59   33   5   32   39 
Denney               6   7   5.14  23  23   119.0  129   68  20   41   91 
Ramirez              4   6   5.22  50   1    69.0   74   40   9   29   49 
Hinckley*            3   7   5.24  20  20   134.0  149   78  15   53   67 
Armas                4   8   5.28  18  18   104.0  104   61  15   57   74 
de los Santos*       2   3   5.48  46   0    46.0   50   28   6   24   32 
Horgan*              2   6   5.79  59   1    70.0   76   45  11   33   49 
Bacsik*              4  11   5.83  31  23   142.0  167   92  31   42   80 
Karp                 3   8   5.89  27  18   110.0  119   72  19   57   75 
Echols               4  10   6.06  27  15   107.0  117   72  23   45   86 

Disclaimer:  ZiPS projections are computer-based projections of performance.  
Performances have not been allocated to predicted playing time in the majors - 
many of the players listed above are unlikely to play in the majors at all in 2006.  
ZiPS is projecting equivalent production - a .240 ZiPS projection may end up 
being .280 in AAA or .300 in AA, for example.  Whether or not a player will play 
is one of many non-statistical factors one has to take into account when predicting 
the future.