2006 Kansas City Royals

What if your team spent and extra $20 million this off-season and they aren’t any better than last year? If you are the White Sox or Astros, that isn’t so bad. If you are the Royals, and you just set an organizational record for losses, it’s a little scary.

Every part of the team failed last year. Offensively they were 12th in runs scored, 13 runs ahead of the last place Twins. They hit the fewest homers in the league, drew the third fewest walks, were next to last in OBA and next to last in extra base hits, yet managed to hit into the fourth most double plays. The real downer is that the hitting was much better than the pitching and defense.

The Royals defense was simply awful last year, no matter who measured it. The Royals’ defense ranked 30th according to Dave Studenmund’s piece for the Hardball Times Annual this year. Describing the Royals he summed it up this way, “A number of teams had big differences between their infields and outfields, but the Royals were really, really bad in both.”

The Royals were last in the league in Defensive Efficiency Rating (DER), and led the league in errors. They gave up 50 more hits than the 13th place Rangers, and 213 more than the average of the other 13 teams.

John Dewan’s Stat of the Week on January 27th previewed his fielding ratings in his upcoming book The Fielding Bible. It uses a plus/minus system comparing each fielder with the number plays that an average player would make. The four Royals infielders netted –117, that’s a lot of easy outs rolling into the outfield.

And when those balls rolled into the outfield, who was waiting to pick them up but Emil Brown? Maybe “waiting to pick them up” should be replaced by “trying to pick them up.” Brown made 12 errors last season, four more than any other outfielder in the bigs last year. All of the other Royal outfielders combined made 12 errors. Perhaps most amazing of all only one of Brown’s errors was a throwing error; most were grounders that rolled past his glove and through his legs.

The Royals tried to address their deficiencies this winter by bringing in ex-Cardinals. Well, they aren’t all ex-Cardinals, it just seems like it. When the owners grew up Cardinal fans and the two biggest off-season signing are players St. Louis was ready to get rid of, it is rather irksome.

Catcher – John Buck

Buck hit 11 homers in the final two months of 2004, and Royals fans hoped he could hit 20 plus homers in a full season. Buck also seized on that idea and tried to hit everything out of the park until the All-Star break, and ended up hitting .228 with just six homers in the first half. He had a better second half, with a batting average over .250 and a .730 OPS.

The Royals tout Buck as a fine defensive catcher – it’s not much of a compliment but he might be the best defensive player the Royals have. He did throw out 31% of opposing base stealers, an above average figure among major league regulars. That figure could improve this season as the Royals have picked up a first baseman that can handle a pickoff throw, so baserunners may be anchored closer to the bag.

The Royals wanted to bring in a veteran catcher to help tutor Buck and settled on Paul Bako. Bako played just 13 games last season with the Dodgers before hurting his knee. He won’t steal Buck’s job away with his stick, as the Royals seem to continue their policy of not bringing in a backup that could actually push their young players for playing time.

Paul Phillips is the only other catcher on the 40-man roster, and he will be 29 this season. He is slated to return to Omaha and likely would only be called up in the event of an injury. Phillips had a decent season at Omaha last year, and it is possible that he would out hit Buck in the majors, but he has a long history of arm injuries, and like Buck, he is a right-handed batter.

First Base and DH – Mike Sweeney, Doug Mientkiewicz, and Matt Stairs

The pendulum swings in Kansas City, from Cal Pickering to Doug Mientkiewicz. Undoubtedly the Royals infield problems were accentuated by not having a competent first baseman to dig throws, or with the mobility to handle wide throws. Mientkiewicz is being touted as a former gold-glove winner and a player with World Series experience. Unfortunately, since Doug left Minnesota his offense has suffered, hitting less .250 with an OBP below .330 each of the last two seasons. His slugging percentage is the worst among major league first basemen over the last two seasons with more than 700 PAs.

Buddy Bell apparently has explained to Mike Sweeney that he will be the team’s DH this year, and Sweeney is not to publicly state a desire to play regularly in the field. Because of Mientkiewicz’s long tenure in majors, it is likely that Sweeney will be reluctant to “show him up.” Sweeney has not played more than 130 games since 2001, but has continued to hit well when in the lineup. He will continue to battle back problems, despite not playing in the field.

Stairs will be squeezed for playing time this season, despite having a nice season in 2005 in a limited role. Both Stairs and Doug M are left-handed batters, and Stairs is mediocre at best at first base. Bell did use more than one pinch hitter per game after taking over the Royals, a much higher rate than Tony Pena had during his tenure, so Stairs will probably appear frequently in that role. Bell has stated that Stairs will not be used in the outfield this season; he only logged 100 innings in the outfield in 2005.

The Royals only have three well-regarded batting prospects in the upper level of the minors, and two of them fall into the 1b/DH category. Billy Butler is a right-handed batter that excelled in the High-A California league and continued to hit solidly at AA after a late season promotion as a 19-year old. He had 110 RBI combined at the two levels, and his minor league career average is .352. Unfortunately defensively he is a natural-born DH, though the Royals are trying to make him a passable outfielder. Hopefully the Royals will leave him in the minors at least until September, however that would be breaking from their usual pattern.

Justin Huber got a brief call-up last season, and hit .217 and showed no power. Huber, 24, was a catcher until 2005, and is rough defensively at first. The current plan is for Mientkiewicz to keep first base warm for one season and Huber to take over full-time in 2007. John Sickels describes him as having good strike zone judgment and power to all fields. Ken Harvey tore an Achilles tendon this winter and will be rehabbing while on a minor league contract.

Second Base – Mark Grudzielanek

Ruben Gotay parlayed a hot spring and injury to Tony Graffanino into the starting job last spring. Gotay hit well in May and June, but after he hit just .169 in July with his defense deteriorating, the Royals returned him to Wichita. Gotay is just 23, but has already played 130 games in the majors. If the Royals had picked up a passable veteran the last two seasons it is likely that Gotay would be seen as a bright spot among the Royals minor leaguers - instead he is essentially a failed prospect. Former Cardinal Grudzielanek, 36, should provide an upgrade in the field and at the plate, and if the Royals are likely to improve their win total this is where it is likely to come. Like most Royals, Grudz doesn’t walk much, but will probably bat second in the lineup.

Third Base – Mark Teahen

Much like the second base situation last spring, the Royals had planned to send Teahen to Omaha for a least half a season, but when Chris Truby was injured, Teahen opened the season as the starter at third. Why the Royals could not make a deal for a Scott Baker or a Wes Helms type is hard to understand, because if keeping Teahen in AAA was a good idea in January it was probably a good idea at the end of March.

Teahen showed very little at the plate, but the Royals liked his defense despite the fact that he had the lowest fielding percentage and second-most errors among AL third basemen. He will be 24 this season, and he hit a lot better in late September, but I’m not optimistic that it will carry forward.

Alex Gordon was the number-two pick overall, but the Royals did not sign him until the end of September so he missed the minor league season. He will open the season in the minors, possibly as high as AAA, hopefully at third base. The Royals have talked about moving him to the outfield this fall, not because they do not think he can play third in the majors but because they have Teahen. This would be a serious mistake, but consistent with their pattern of not pushing their “top prospects.”

Shortstop – Angel Berroa

Berroa has become the whipping boy for KC fans, which is generally what happens when you lead the majors in errors over a two-year period. The majority of his errors seem to be at balls hit right at him, or on throws on what should be routine plays. He seemed to enjoy hot-dogging with Gotay occasionally in the field, flipping the ball with his glove for a putout at second rather than making a simple throw. He drew just 18 walks in 652 plate appearances, the second-worst walk rate among regulars in baseball. He finished only ahead of Christian Guzman in Runs Created Above Position per Lee Sinins’ Encyclopedia in 2005 among all shortstops.

At age 28, following two consecutive seasons that trended downward in production it appears that his bat will never return to his ROY level.

Andres Blanco, 22, will still be in Omaha, with his golden glove and balsa wood bat, waiting for the Royals to give up on Berroa. Behind Blanco is Angel Sanchez who hit .313 with no power at High Desert last season. The Royals added him to the 40-man roster to prevent losing him in the Rule V draft. Another excellent fielder with a questionable bat, he will play in Wichita in 2006.

Centerfield – David DeJesus

One of the knocks on DeJesus before 2004 was his history of injury trouble. The injury bug bit him again in 2005 when he suffered a right shoulder strain and a ligament tear while making catch on Aug. 28, causing him to miss the remainder of the season. So far this spring there have been no reports of the shoulder being a problem.

He will again be the team’s leadoff hitter. Hopefully he can continue to reach base at a .360 clip while showing some gap power. Defensively, he ranks in the middle third of centerfielders, not among the best, nor among the worst. If he can stay healthy he should be a consistent piece in the Royals puzzle.

Chip Ambres, who joined the Royals in the Graffanino deal last summer, is the best backup centerfielder defensively in camp, but not assured of making the roster. Ambres is one day older than DeJesus, and played fairly well in his 53 games with the Royals. He is best remembered by KC fans for a horrible play in left field that allowed the Indians to overcome a huge deficit for another Royal loss.

Corner Outfielders – Reggie Sanders, Emil Brown, Aaron Guiel

I hoped last season the Royals would give Matt Diaz a shot at a major league job, and they did, only his name was Emil Brown. Brown had not been in the majors since 2001, but given his chance in 2005 the 30 year-old acquitted himself well at the plate, basically duplicating the numbers he had produced in AAA the three prior seasons. I think that he will be able to essentially duplicate those numbers in 2006, and hopefully the move from right field to left field will help him defensively. It couldn’t hurt.

Reggie Sanders, 38, another former Cardinal, was signed to a two-year deal this winter. Sanders missed from mid-July to mid-September with a broken leg, and also missed time during the playoffs with a sore neck and a back strain. Obviously injuries both big and small tend to hamper players at this age. Sanders has never played more than 140 games in a season in his career, so counting on him to play more than 130 games this season seems unlikely. Sanders should be an upgrade over Terrance Long, and will fit in with the rest of the Royal lineup because he has not drawn 50 walks in a season in this century.

Aaron Guiel missed most of 2004 with blurred vision, and then spent most of 2005 tearing the cover off the ball in Omaha before spending the final month of the season in the majors. Guiel, 33, is left-handed and was fair in centerfield last season after DeJesus injury. He would be a nice backup behind both Brown and Sanders, and a passable backup centerfielder if the Royals farm out Ambres.

Shane Costa was rushed to the majors last summer after hitting .282 for three months in his first chance at AA. The ensuing results were predictable, a .235 average in 81 at-bats. Costa was just 23 last season. Why the Royals brought him to the majors or how they thought he was ready is baffling.

Other Bench Players

The Royals are going to take 12 pitchers north, so likely it will be four outfielders and three first basemen, leaving them room for two backup infielders. Esteban German and Super Joe McEwing are the likely candidates for those two spots, though both Ambres and Guiel making the club would push one of them to Omaha. Last year German had an OBP of .400, scored 103 runs, and stole 43 bases in only 117 games. Why he is battling McEwing for the final roster spot rather than Grudzielanek for the starting position is an interesting question.

Starting Pitching

Have you seen the movie trailer for “Failure to Launch?” Apparently it is a movie starring Sarah Jessica Parker, Allard Baird and every draft choice the Royals have used on a pitcher for the last decade. Another spring, another new pitching coach for the Royals. Guy “Tinker” Hansen has moved on and former Royal Bob McClure is the new man in charge. The only pitcher likely to miss Hansen is Mike MacDougal. Hansen seems to be around when MacDougal pitches well, but it appears the remainder of the staff and organization was happy to see Hansen go. The projected rotation is Mark Redman, Scott Elarton, Joe Mays, Runelvys Hernandez and someone. That someone was Zack Greinke until he left spring training for undisclosed personal reasons a week into training. Why is Zack gone? No one is talking at this point, but it appears that a best-case scenario is him rejoining the rotation mid-April as the 5th starter. The longer he is gone though, the less likely that becomes.

Greinke suffered through a poor season in 2005. In his rookie season he was noted for changing speeds, throwing many different pitches and often looking like the headiest pitcher on the staff. The Royals told him to use his fastball more last season, in fact at times they had him use it exclusively for the first three or four innings of the game. His fastball starting hitting 95 on the gun rather than the 88-91 it was usually at in 2004, but big league hitters pounded him all over the yard. Only teammate Jose Lima allowed more hits per 9 IP than Greinke. Where his career goes from here is anyone’s guess.

The top three men in the rotation were not with the club last year, and last year’s most effective starter, DJ Carrasco went to Japan this winter.

Redman was acquired in December for Jonah Bayliss, and the Royals hoped that the lefty would eat up innings. He tore the cartilage in his plant knee the first weekend in March, forcing him to have arthroscopic surgery. He will be out four to six weeks, and if things go well he should join the rotation in mid-April.

Elarton followed Bell from Cleveland, signing a two-year deal in December. Elarton was the most extreme flyball pitcher in the league last year, and was fourth in the AL in homers allowed. The Royals hope that spacious Kauffman Stadium will help, but Jacobs Field suppressed homers 24% over the past three seasons, while Kauffman has reduced them 27%. Mays on the other hand would have been in the top 10 in the league in groundball to flyball ratio had he pitched enough to qualify. If the Royals infield defense is not significantly better this season, with Mays’ extremely low strikeout rate this could make Lima’s 2005 not look so bad.

Runelvys was Eat-elvys this winter. He reported to camp so heavy that the Royals will not divulge his weight, not even to his teammates. After a promising 2003, Hernandez had his elbow rebuilt and missed all of 2004. He started slowly in 2005, but seemed to find his groove in the middle of the season. The last two months were a disaster, and Hernandez reportedly packed on 50lbs as the season progressed.

Other candidates for the rotation include Jeremy Affeldt (who is a starter as I write this, but may have been moved to the pen, then to catcher, then back to a starter before it is posted), Denny Bautista, Mike Wood, and J.P. Howell. Bautista is a camp phenomenon early on, but he has an extremely thin frame and has hard trouble staying healthy. The Royals would love him to earn the final spot in the rotation. Wood’s versatility will likely keep him in the pen as long man/spot starter. His ERA was nearly a run lower in his 37 relief appearances in 2005 than his ERA as a starter, but was due to the nine unearned runs he allowed in 60 relief innings.

Howell was ticketed for more seasoning until Greinke’s departure. He was brought to the majors last with less than 100 innings pitched in the minors, only 18 of them at AA or higher. Lack of experience coupled with the Royals porous defense and a walk rate of 4.8 per 9 IP led to an ERA over 6.00. But six Royals that pitched at least 30 innings had worse ERAs, so I guess you could call him a relative success.

Bullpen This was the brightest spot on the Royals last year, thanks to Mike MacDougal re-establishing himself as a closer and a couple rookies coming out of nowhere.

MacDougal returns in the closer role where he was 21 of 25 in save opportunities last year. He will always battle his mechanics, but he was consistently effective last year. His control was excellent after the All-star break, and he averaged more than a strikeout per inning on the season.

Tall lefty Andrew Sisco, picked up in the Rule V draft prior to last season, was used brilliantly by the Royals last year. Early on he was used in low leverage situations where he pitched very well. As the season progressed he increasingly moved in to higher pressure spots, and continued to be effective. His walk rate was not good, and did not improve over the course of the season. That coupled with his success in the pen have kept the Royals from thinking about stretching him out as a starter.

The other surprise of 2005 was Ambiorix Burgos, who was just 21-years old last season. A hard right-handed thrower, he also struck out more than a batter per inning. You may as well learn to pronounce his first name, I thought it was a unique name but looking through the Dominican Summer League statistics there were several players with this unusual name, so there are more Ambiorix-es on the way.

Elmer Dessens was signed to a two-year contract this winter. His ERA over the past three seasons as a reliever has been 2.89, so it is possible that Royals have found a player that could be surprisingly effective doing bridge work in the 6th and 7th innings.

The Royals are planning on taking seven relievers north, so Wood and Affeldt will end up here if they cannot break into the rotation. Jimmy Gobble has a shot as bullpen lefty, particularly if Affeldt is in the rotation.

The Royals do not have any other well-rated pitching prospects in the upper levels of their system.

Overall Outlook

The team was four games below their Pythagorean projection last season, which predicted 60 rather than the 56 they had. While I can see some improvement in the offense at second base and one corner outfield position, unless one of the younger players (Buck or Teahen or Berroa) takes a step forward it is unlikely they can become an even average AL team offensively.

Last year’s bullpen strength could regress just as quickly, counting on the two sophomores and the volatile MacDougal. The starters figure to be better, topping the 6.00 ERA the team’s starters posted last season shouldn’t be too tough. If the bullpen can remain solid shaving 50 to 100 runs off last seasons totals seems possible. Even giving up 100 fewer runs though would only move them from 14th to 12th in the AL in runs allowed last season.

The improvement on the right side of the infield defensively may be the biggest key to whether this team can avoid exceeding 90 losses. If some glove wizardry at first can keep help Teahen and Berroa it could make a big difference.

In total, this looks to be another 90-plus loss season, but hopefully they can avoid their third consecutive 100-loss campaign. (Thanks to Bill Carle and Mike Emeigh for helping me with some great ideas and fixing my countless spelling mistakes!)

2006 ZiPS Projections - Kansas City Royals

Name               P     G   AB    R    H  2B  3B  HR  RBI   BB    K  SB  CS   AVG   OBP   SLG 
Sweeney            1b  115  437   58  128  30   0  19   77   40   51   3   1  .293  .355  .492 
Huber              1b  133  458   88  128  24   3  15   69   50  118   6   2  .279  .360  .443 
DeJesus*           cf  129  491   82  145  29   5  11   62   49   70   9  10  .295  .372  .442 
Brown              rf  128  466   63  132  28   3  13   69   40   86   8   2  .283  .346  .440 
Mientkiewicz*      1b  137  448   48  122  33   1   7   48   66   59   2   3  .272  .369  .397 
Butler             1b  123  454   69  129  22   1  16   67   26   95   0   0  .284  .329  .443 
Harvey             1b  127  487   55  134  26   1  15   64   34   89   2   2  .275  .329  .425 
Guiel*             lf  145  520   85  129  30   1  20   73   50  106   4   4  .248  .334  .425 
Ambres             cf  139  433   65  108  26   3  12   47   65  113  17  11  .249  .351  .406 
Stairs*            1b  122  374   43   95  21   1  12   55   44   74   0   1  .254  .338  .412 
Sanders            rf  112  368   54   90  19   2  19   62   30   91  12   3  .245  .308  .462 
Allen              lf   96  349   50  102  22   1   7   44   18   63   6   6  .292  .328  .421 
Coolbaugh          3b  114  406   63  100  25   1  17   65   33   96   3   1  .246  .307  .438 
Grudzielanek       2b  129  490   60  142  29   2   6   55   25   69   6   4  .290  .330  .394 
Gotay#             2b  133  474   72  121  22   5   9   58   49   78   9   4  .255  .330  .380 
Teahen*            3b  143  500   68  130  27   3   9   59   46  109   5   1  .260  .324  .380 
Berroa             ss  159  616   81  170  25   5  14   70   25   97  13   7  .276  .318  .401 
Buck               c   121  420   51  108  19   1  14   55   29   93   2   2  .257  .309  .407 
German             2b  117  448   72  117  21   3   4   42   48   62  22   8  .261  .338  .348 
Kaaihue*           1b  132  430   59   98  17   1  10   47   49   92   1   1  .228  .320  .342 
Costa*             lf  116  402   55  103  17   1   7   44   25   37   2   3  .256  .314  .356 
Aviles             ss  134  493   67  128  30   3   8   58   26   59   5   5  .260  .296  .381 
Phillips           c   104  362   42   92  20   2   5   39   16   43   2   3  .254  .291  .362 
Murphy             2b  111  398   47   92  21   2   8   45   27   80   2   1  .231  .285  .354 
Lubanski*          cf  125  468   66  112  19   3  11   54   22  116  11   4  .239  .279  .363 
Brown*             rf  113  400   37   90  20   1  11   43   30   93   3   3  .225  .282  .363 
Maier*             cf  135  503   72  121  32   3   7   51   23   84   7   4  .241  .276  .358 
Robinson*          lf  114  387   51  106  11   2   1   28   16   45  21  12  .274  .304  .320 
Bako*              c    51  138   12   29   9   1   0   12   15   32   0   1  .210  .290  .290 
Blanco#            ss   94  317   35   75   6   3   1   22   16   39   8   3  .237  .286  .284 
Gil                ss   64  194   19   44   9   0   3   19   10   54   2   3  .227  .273  .320 
McEwing            2b   98  220   22   51   8   0   1   15   16   40   4   2  .232  .285  .282 
Valdez             ss  103  355   33   76  12   3   1   26   20   52  14   8  .214  .258  .273 

Name                 W   L    ERA   G  GS     INN    H   ER  HR   BB    K 
Peralta              3   3   3.91  45   0    53.0   48   23   6   18   47 
Sisco*               3   4   4.32  67   0    77.0   69   37   6   41   78 
Affeldt*             3   4   4.50  46   8    92.0   95   46   7   35   68 
MacDougal            4   5   4.57  63   0    65.0   64   33   5   30   59 
Howell*              8  10   4.68  33  33   173.0  168   90  15   86  136 
Greinke             10  12   4.69  32  32   186.0  208   97  24   45  119 
Snyder               4   6   4.70  27  18   113.0  129   59  12   30   58 
Burgos               4   5   4.70  64   0    67.0   62   35   7   35   69 
Madritsch*           7  10   4.78  26  24   145.0  143   77  12   76   97 
Dessens              4   5   4.79  37  16   126.0  142   67  13   37   68 
Hernandez            9  11   4.80  27  27   148.0  155   79  15   62   80 
Redman*              9  12   4.82  30  30   183.0  204   98  20   61   99 
Bernero              4   6   4.89  37  10    92.0   99   50  10   34   58 
Bass                 7  10   4.99  25  25   155.0  173   86  18   54   78 
Wood                 7  11   5.08  38  21   147.0  164   83  20   50   85 
Nelson               1   3   5.17  44   0    54.0   49   31   9   29   65 
Bray                 3   4   5.21  41   0    76.0   85   44  15   19   62 
Gobble*              6   9   5.22  35  22   138.0  154   80  22   47   76 
Nunez                2   4   5.25  61   0    84.0   99   49  13   23   54 
Bautista             5   8   5.29  26  25   136.0  140   80  12   81   97 
Mays                 5  10   5.49  29  23   136.0  169   83  19   39   47 
Elarton              6  12   5.53  31  31   171.0  200  105  30   54   98 
Snare*               5  11   5.55  30  21   133.0  146   82  18   61   78 
Armitage             3   5   5.61  44   1    77.0   87   48   9   39   44 
Buckner              7  14   5.61  28  28   162.0  185  101  27   63  111 
Yarnall*             5   7   5.61  22  18    93.0   98   58  15   46   72 

Disclaimer:  ZiPS projections are computer-based projections of performance.  
Performances have not been allocated to predicted playing time in the majors - 
many of the players listed above are unlikely to play in the majors at all in 2006.  
ZiPS is projecting equivalent production - a .240 ZiPS projection may end up 
being .280 in AAA or .300 in AA, for example.  Whether or not a player will play 
is one of many non-statistical factors one has to take into account when predicting 
the future.