2006 Pittsburgh Pirates

I'm Henry the eighth I am
Henry the eighth I am, I am
I got married to the widow next door
She's been married seven times before
And every one was an Henry (Henry)
She wouldn't have a Willy or a Sam (no Sam)
I'm her eighth old man, I'm Henry
Henry the eighth I am

(Second verse same as the first)

Pirate fans are like the widow next door in the Herman’s Hermits song. Every year, they marry “Henry” – that group of veteran castoffs who are willing to accept a couple of handfuls of Kevin McClatchy’s cash pile – and at the end of every year, “Henry” dies off, leaving the widow seeking another husband.

Work A Little Magic

Bullwinkle: Hey Rocky, watch me pull a rabbit out of my hat!

Rocky: But that trick never works.

Bullwinkle: This time for sure…presto! (pulls Rocky out of hat)

Bullwinkle: Well, I’m getting close.

Pirate management is like Bullwinkle. Every year, they try to pull the same trick, and even though Rocky (and everyone else) knows that the trick will never work, McClatchy and company keep coming back to the hat, figuring that this is the year that the rabbit will finally appear.

Follow the Money – into Ownership’s Pockets

The Pirates have a system. Unfortunately for Pirate fans, that system has nothing to do with placing a team that will compete for pennants and World Series titles on the field, and everything to do with placing a team on the field that will keep the attention of the fan base long enough for McClatchy and his partners, the Nutting family (who some believe are really calling the shots in Pittsburgh), to turn a consistent profit. The year-in, year-out goal is to make sure that the bottom line is written in black ink. Ownership is unwilling to dig into their own pockets to invest anything in improving the team over the long-term – in fact, McClatchy has been quoted as saying on more than one occasion that ownership’s willingness/ability to invest in the team depends on the willingness/ability of the fan base to support the team, and as long as they don’t show up, ownership’s investment won’t go up. This is the exact opposite of a typical marketing approach, which suggests that you invest in a product in order to get the fans to buy it. McClatchy and company are saying “we’re not giving you a better product until you show that you want the one we’re already giving you”.

The net result of this approach is that the Pirates do no long-term planning, or long-term investing, in the basic infrastructure of the enterprise; everything comes out of current earned dollars, and everything is done on a year-to-year basis. The effects of this show up most notably in the minor league system. Under Cam Bonifay, the Pirates had a relatively profitable working arrangement with the Mexico City Red Devils, which netted the Bucs Francisco Cordova, Ricardo Rincon, Elmer Dessens, and Esteban Loaiza at the major league level. This was a tap into the Mexican system that no one else had – something that a limited-resource franchise needs. But the Bucs let it run out, and San Diego quickly swooped in and picked it up. Today, Pittsburgh has no real international presence – no direct pipeline for talent outside the major league draft.

Furthermore, once prospects get into the system, the lack of long-term system planning shows up again. Case in point: the Pirates drafted John VanBenschoten as a pitcher, although he was an outstanding hitter in college and had limited pitching experience. That’s defensible if you’re a team like Atlanta, which has definite ideas about pitcher development and knows how to slot their pitchers in the organization. But the Pirates aren’t Atlanta. VanBenschoten drifted upward in the organization, never really developing his approach on the mound, never honing his pitches or developing new ones. He arrived in the majors as virtually the same unpolished, undeveloped pitcher that he was the day he was drafted. Yes, he got hurt – but even before that, it was clear that he was going to have to undergo significant on-the-job training at the big-league level in order to become a quality major league pitcher. The same thing happened with Kris Benson. The guys who *have* succeeded in this organization – Zach Duke, Paul Maholm, Sean Burnett before he was hurt – came into the organization with an idea of how to pitch from the beginning.

I lay most of the blame for this at the feet of the ownership. The day McClatchy took over the team, Cam Bonifay had a plan to develop the organization from the ground up, and it was working reasonably well while playing to Bonifay’s strengths in player development and scouting; the Pirates had one of the best farm systems in baseball going into the 1998 season, as well as a team that had overachieved its way into second place in the division while waiting for the future core to develop. As I’ve written before, the political fallout from the ballpark financing battle and the collapse of the team down the stretch in 1998 changed all of that. Instead of being patient and remembering what happened in the four years leading up to 1990, the team jettisoned its building approach in favor of a year-to-year, “build around cheap available vets” scheme. Bonifay was canned in 2001 because he proved to be spectacularly unable to identify such vets, or to pay them what they were worth. Dave Littlefield has done better on both counts, and as a result the team has played just well enough to keep the fans interested and the dollars coming in to ownership’s pockets. If some fans remember the team’s earlier glory days, and would like to see the Bucs get back to that level again…well, sorry, but we’re not going to risk our profit just for a postseason spot.

The Stars Come Out over Pittsburgh

In 2006, McClatchy et al have been aided and abetted in their “turn-a-profit” goal by commissioner Bud Selig, who awarded the 2006 All-Star Game to Pittsburgh. This is in spite of the fact that Pittsburgh had an ASG as recently as 1994, and after 2006 will have had the ASG twice since the last time the Giants, Reds, and Padres (who also have nice new ballparks) had it, and three times since the last time it was in St. Louis (which is moving into a new ballpark this year). It would seem to me that all of those teams had claims to an All-Star event before Pittsburgh – and we won’t even talk about the Dodgers, who haven’t hosted the midsummer exhibition since 1980, or the Mets, who haven’t had the stars grace Shea since 1964, or the Marlins, who have never hosted the ASG. After all, those teams don’t have new ballparks to flaunt, and we know how Bud feels about new ballparks.

So why did the Pirates get pushed ahead of teams who haven’t seen the stars for a longer time, and who have at least as good of an argument as the Pirates to host the game? I think it was done to allow McClatchy to increase payroll painlessly, to (once again) make it appear as though McClatchy is willing to put something into the team. The last CBA required revenue sharing dollars to be invested directly in the on-field product, and the Pirates have been widely suspected of pocketing the dollars; with a new round of bargaining about to begin, the smaller teams need to make it look as though revenue sharing has made a difference. In addition, there have been rumblings about a possible sale of the team, with Mark Cuban expressing an interest. While it would certainly be in the best interests of Pirate fans everywhere for Cuban to buy the team (assuming that he’d care as much about the product on the field as he appears to care about his NBA product), it is almost certainly not in Bud Selig’s best interest to replace the reliable McClatchy with the loose-cannon Cuban. Propping up McClatchy, from that standpoint, makes sense; the Bucs – and Selig – need the game in Pittsburgh more than the other teams, so the game will be in Pittsburgh. And McClatchy bumped his payroll over $40 million, and everyone is happy, right?

Well, no. The problem is that Kevin McClatchy isn’t the new kid on the block any more. He’s owned this team for nearly 10 years, with a track record exactly that of Bullwinkle trying to pull a rabbit out of the hat. And as more fans realize, with Rocky, that the trick never works, perhaps enough of them will start looking around for a Willie or a Sam – or a Mark – and ditch Henry for good.

Looking Back (Briefly) at 2005

The Pirates were actually at .500 as late as June 11 last year, but (as has been their pattern) interleague play started them reeling. After winning four of their first five interleague games, the Bucs lost six of their last seven, going 1-5 on a trip to Yankee Stadium and Fenway Park. That started a string of 14 losses in 18 games, and the Bucs stumbled to the break at 39-48, then lost seven of their first eight after the break. By that time, it was clear that Lloyd McClendon had lost the team, but it took another string of 12 losses in 14 games leading into September for the Bucs to finally pull the plug. Interim manager Pete Mackanin turned things around a bit, helping the Bucs avoid 100 losses, but he was never a candidate for the full-time job, which eventually went to Jim Tracy.

The Field Boss

Tracy has a couple of things going for him. He appears to be a pitching-and-defense first guy, which is also what David Littlefield’s approach has been and with which Lloyd McClendon was never really comfortable, and he’s also stressing the importance of patience among the hitters (something this team needs desperately), which is a 180-degree turnaround from McClendon, who liked his guys to hack. From the reports I’m reading about spring training, Tracy is much more hands-on with the players than McClendon ever was. McClendon tended to sit back and direct the action; Tracy’s out there teaching and demonstrating what he wants. It’s too bad that the Pirates don’t have a minor league organization full of Jim Tracys.

Tracy does have a tendency to focus on what a player isn’t doing, rather than on what he is doing and can do, and when a guy struggles, he’s usually quick to replace him (Hee Seop Choi being an example). He also appears to subscribe to the traditional “offense at the corners, defense up the middle” strategy, giving a clearly unready Cesar Izturis the SS job in 2002, handing CF to Dave Roberts over an aging Marquis Grissom, and using Jason Repko in the middle rather than Jose Cruz Jr. (who’d seen quite a bit of time there in the past) after Milton Bradley went down last year. Ultimately, I think this probably cost him the job in LA.

Overall, I think Tracy will get the most out of this team, if for no other reason than he appears to communicate better than McClendon (who over his last couple of seasons seemed to communicate with his players more through the press). He wouldn’t have been my first choice (I’d have gone for someone with a minor league track record in player development, like Tracy Woodson if he were interested), but he seems to be a good fit with the front office and (so far) with the team on the field.

The Hitters

The Bucs will line up this way offensively:

C: Ryan Doumit (25) /Humberto Cota (27)
1B: Sean Casey (31)
2B: Jose Castillo (25)
SS: Jack Wilson (28)
3B: Joe Randa (36)
LF: Jason Bay (27)
CF: Chris Duffy (25)
RF: Jeromy Burnitz (37)

Bench: Craig Wilson (29), Freddy Sanchez (28), Jody Gerut (28), Jose Hernandez (36) or Nate McLouth (24) or possibly Jose Bautista (25)

Last year, the Bucs scored 680 runs – exactly what they scored a year earlier, and near the bottom of the NL. The team hopes that the additions of Casey, Randa, and Burnitz would address the most obvious weaknesses, but any real chance for improvement in the offense really rest with the kids – Doumit, Castillo, and Duffy/McLouth/Bautista.

Casey kept his batting average over .300 and his walk rate high, but his power virtually disappeared; he went from 24 HR to 9 and from 44 2B to 32, despite playing in a power-friendly ballpark. Part of the problem might have been a shoulder injury suffered in May, which caused him to miss time at various points during the season. Players with this particular skill set tend to age well, and it’s likely that Casey can continue to crank out .300/.375/.450 seasons for several years. That’s not exactly what you prefer from your 1B, and it’s not worth what he’s being paid for 2006, but it’s better than what the Bucs got from Daryle Ward and Brad Eldred last year, and since Casey is signed only through this year, he represents an adequate stopgap to allow Eldred to figure out how to make contact more frequently.

Randa parlayed a half-season in Cincinnati, during which he hit 13 HRs in 92 games, into a trade to San Diego and postseason exposure for the first time in his career. He didn’t hit well in San Diego (admittedly a tough place to hit) and he’s starting to show some signs of fading – his strikeout rate is trending upward, he’s losing some power, and he’s also losing a step defensively. A fair number of his statistical comps through age 35 lost it very quickly thereafter. The Pirates actually got decent offense from 3B most of 2005, with Freddy Sanchez playing the bulk of the innings and Rob Mackowiak seeing time there as well, and Randa’s not likely to be an improvement and could easily be worse.

The acquisition of Burnitz, and his signing to a deal that will cost the team at least $6.5 million (1 year for 6, with a mutual option for a second year at 6, which has little chance of being exercised, or a 500K buyout) is at best baffling. The Bucs went after Burnitz because he’s a left-handed hitter with power, but he’s clearly losing steam. He slugged just .435 in Wrigley Field in 2005 even with 24 HRs. Furthermore, by just about every measure, he was absolutely brutal defensively in right. Obviously, the Bucs are hoping for a return to the glory days of Coors Field in 2004, but Burnitz is going to be lucky to deliver 20 HRs, never mind 30. He’s more likely to be this year’s Raul Mondesi than this year’s Reggie Sanders.

Jason Bay is the linchpin of this offense, and I can say that I have never been happier to be wrong about someone than I was about Bay. Prior to last year I expressed reservations about Bay’s strikeout rate and his HR to doubles rate, neither of which was particularly impressive. So he goes out, smacks 44 doubles, cuts his strikeout rate, jumps his walk rate, and delivers 32 HRs to boot – basically, a Brian Giles year. The Bucs signed him for four years (carrying him through arbitration) at a bargain-basement price of $18.25 million, and he should be worth every penny.

Castillo took a stride forward last year, before his season was ended by St. Louis’s Hector Luna on what some of the Bucs felt was a deliberate attempt to injure. Castillo’s walk rate improved slightly, his strikeouts fell markedly, and he added some pop. He still has a way to go in terms of pitch recognition, and his defensive skills are still raw (he was, after all, converted to 2B just a year ago after playing very little there in the minors). Adam Kennedy with a bit more power is, I think, a decent comp for Castillo; he could very easily settle in the .280/.335/.425 range.

Doumit got his first taste of the majors in 2005, after blasting 12 HRs in 51 games at Indianapolis. He struggled some with the bat in the majors, although he did his 6 HRs in 75 games, and his defense behind the plate also left something to be desired. It’s not clear whether he or Cota will get the bulk of the early work, but eventually I think Doumit’s bat will force the issue in his favor. Cota is a competent defensive catcher with a bit of power, but he’s going to struggle to hit .240.

Duffy took Pittsburgh by storm after his recall from the minors, hitting .341/.385/.429 in 39 games before a torn hamstring took him out. He was slow to recover from the injury, on which he was still limping as ST started – and now he’s going to miss some more time after being beaned by Curt Schilling, so it’s an open question as to whether he’ll be ready for opening day. He’s not going to hit .340 in a full season. Baseball Prospectus lists Randy Winn as a comp, and I think that’s a reasonably good one, although I don’t think Duffy will hit for as much power as Winn. The Pirates have a recent tradition of handing the CF job to a guy (Jermaine Allensworth, Adrian Brown, Tike Redman) who hits like a house afire for a month or so, but then falls back to his previously displayed level of ability. There’s no reason to think Duffy will be much different.

If Duffy isn’t 100%, McLouth will probably get the job. He’s a better hitter than Duffy, but not as good defensively (although I think his defensive liabilities are overstated). The Bucs could also slide Bay over and platoon Gerut and Craig Wilson if LF.

Jack Wilson isn’t as good as hitter as he was in 2004, and isn’t as bad as he was last year, when the aftereffects of an offseason appendectomy ruined his first two months. The Bucs just signed him to a three-year extension worth $20.2 million, so he’s in the fold through 2009 (plus there’s an $8.4 million option for 2010). I think he’ll rebound to something like .280/.320/.400 or so.

For Craig Wilson, 2005 was a lost season, with two separate hand injuries limiting him to 59 games. The Pirates have brought in Casey and Burnitz to take over at the two positions available to Wilson (1B and RF), limiting him to a backup role at best if he’s not traded. Wilson was not a favorite of Lloyd McClendon, largely because he doesn’t play with much on-field emotion (“fire”, if you will) – he goes about his business and takes what comes. He wasn’t hitting especially well prior to his injury, continuing a trend that started about mid-season 2004, and I think there’s good reason to be concerned about his ability to bounce back, when you look at how his statistical comps have performed post-age 28; very few of them have had careers past age 30. Wilson is brutal defensively, and at this stage I feel as though the platoon role is appropriate. I don’t think he’s going to be a regular again; he’ll most likely play 1B and RF against LHP.

Freddy Sanchez acquitted himself pretty well upon being thrust into a regular role when Ty Wigginton flamed out. He posted a .291/.336/.400 season line and played acceptable defense at both 3B and 2B when Castillo went out. His reward was to head back to the bench, with Castillo recovered and Randa signed to play 3B. Sanchez wouldn’t have been any worse than Randa with the bat or the glove, at this stage of his career. He’s probably ticketed to back up the middle infielders.

Jody Gerut was acquired from the Cubs in a deadline deal for Matt Lawton. He didn’t last long in Pittsburgh before aggravating a knee injury that had shelved him earlier with Cleveland. He’ll likely be the fourth OF, backing up either Duffy or McLouth in CF as well as spelling Bay in LF (should that be necessary). His fine rookie season is looking more and more like a fluke.

Jose Hernandez, in camp as a non-roster player, probably has the inside track for the last slot, assuming that the Bucs don’t decide to keep McLouth around as insurance for Duffy. Jose Bautista has been getting some playing time in the outfield, and while I still think he’s ticketed for Indianapolis, it’s possible that he’s being auditioned for a backup role in the event that Craig Wilson is traded. I think he’s still behind Hernandez for a bench role. No one else has much of a chance to make the team, although Rajai Davis could stick as a backup OF if Duffy is disabled and CWilson is moved.

The Bucs scored 680 runs in 2005, exactly as many as they scored in 2004. Some improvement is probable, in the absence of huge declines from Burnitz and Randa; the bench is better, Casey is an upgrade over what the Bucs played at 1B last year, Castillo and Jack Wilson should be better than they were a year ago, and Duffy or McLouth full-time will probably be an upgrade, given how much time Tike Redman saw a year ago. But I still don’t see major improvement; at best, I see a team in the low 700s. I expect one of either Burnitz or Randa to decline precipitously, and the improvements at the other positions to be modest. No one with the exception of Castillo is likely to have a breakout year.

The Hurlers – Known Quantities

Starters: Zach Duke (23), Paul Maholm (24), Oliver Perez (24)

Closer: Mike Gonzalez (28)

Relievers: Salomon Torres (34), Damaso Marte (31), Roberto Hernandez (41), John Grabow (27)

These are the guys who are all but certain to have jobs.

By the end of last season, the joke about the rotation was that it was “Duke and Maholm and three in the loss column” (Maholm is pronounced “Ma-HOLUM”, in case you didn’t know). While it wasn’t really quite that bad, the most disappointing thing about 2005 was the abject failure of the Bucs’ rotation to sustain anything like the performance expected of them. Going into the season, the Pirates had reason to believe that they had solid rotation, with two staff-ace quality guys in Perez and Kip Wells, inning-eaters Mark Redman and Josh Fogg, and a guy who’d flashed some potential in David Williams. It didn’t quite work out the way that the Bucs had hoped. Perez was plagued by a left shoulder injury that never quite healed, along with mechanical problems that kept him from throwing strikes with any consistency, and eventually shelved himself by breaking a toe kicking a laundry cart in St. Louis; he came back in September but threw only a handful of innings, then pitched poorly in limited appearances in winter ball. Wells also had troubles locating the strike zone, and wound up losing 18 games; his woes continued into 2006, as he’ll be out until at least the All-Star break after having surgery to repair a damaged vein in his right arm. Redman pitched well early, but was done in by a lack of run support; he then faded after the break with a 7.08 ERA, finishing 5-15 and eventually out of the rotation. Fogg, too, pitched his way out of the rotation, and into a contract with the Rockies. David Williams pitched passably well as the #5 starter, and was the only pitcher in double-digits in wins; his reward was to be traded for Casey after the season, to a ballpark which does not suit his flyball tendencies.

The rotation was “salvaged” (if you can call it that) by the emergence of two rookie pitchers, both of whom will open the season in the rotation. Zach Duke became the first pitcher in Pittsburgh franchise history to win his first six career decisions, and pitched brilliantly in 14 starts, going 8-2 with a 1.81 ERA. He missed some time with a sprained ankle (sustained while running the bases). Left-handed hitters posted a .387 OPS against him – that’s OPS, not BA or SLG. Duke made some off-season headlines by first publicly ripping McClendon and former pitching coach Spin Williams, and then by refusing (along with Castillo, Duffy, and Mike Gonzalez) to sign the one-year contract the Bucs offered him, which he had little choice but to accept as a pre-arb-eligible player. Duke throws a low-90s two-seam fastball which, when he’s on, turns into a steady stream of weak grounders. He also has outstanding breaking stuff and finally, last year, got a working changeup to add to the mix. Duke knows how to pitch; the only real concern about him is that he doesn’t get hitters to swing and miss very often. He’s had some problems keeping the two-seamer down this spring, and when that happens he’s going to get hit; expecting a reprise of his first 14 starts is unrealistic, but he should be very solid at the front of the rotation. It’ll be interesting to see how well he adjusts when hitters see him a couple of times.

Paul Maholm was recalled when Duke sprained his ankle, supposedly for just one start. That start turned into eight brilliant innings against the Brewers, and Maholm got five more starts down the stretch, in each of which he pitched into the seventh inning. He went 3-1, 2.18 in 41 1/3 innings. Maholm is similar to Duke, but his stuff isn’t quite as sharp, nor is his command of it. He’s also gotten off to a slow spring start, but he’s also going to be in the rotation.

Oliver Perez will be in the rotation as well, but there are still a lot of questions about him. Ex-pitching coach Williams spent a lot of effort working on Perez’s mechanics, and that worked in 2004, but most of the time in 2005, Perez had no clue where his pitches were going. He showed flashes of his 2004 brilliance – 8 2/3 innings of 4-hit shutout ball against Houston in April, 10 Ks and 1 run allowed in seven innings against Tampa in June – but it was essentially a lost season. Perez had a very nasty public spat over his salary prior to last season, and then reported to camp in less-than-perfect shape after sitting out winter ball for the first time; some in the organization felt that contributed to his season-long troubles, and I think there’s something to that. The Bucs are counting on Perez to regain his form of 2004. He’s pitching for Mexico’s WBC team right now, and his first effort for them wasn’t exactly what the Bucs were hoping to see; he threw 35 pitches (19 balls, 16 strikes) in one inning against Canada, although he did get out without allowing a run (3 BB, 3 K). I expect another season of up-and-down efforts here, as Perez struggles to find something that will work consistently.

In the bullpen, Mike Gonzalez has nailed down the closer’s role vacated by Jose Mesa - a role which many felt should have been his going into last season, as Mesa predictably reverted to form after pitching well in his first season in black and gold. Gonzalez might be as much of a full-pack guy as was Joe Table, for different reasons. In his first 51 2/3 career innings, he walked just 12 guys. Last year, in 50 innings, he walked 31. Right-handed batters hit just .250 and slugged .357 against Gonzalez a year ago, but had a .348 OBP due to the walks. His rates other than the BBs rates (hits allowed, HRs, Ks) were excellent, as they’d been in 2004, so if he finds whatever command deserted him in 2005, he should be outstanding. If he doesn’t, late-inning games will be an adventure. The bucs have to be at least somewhat happy that Brandon Lyon was “damaged goods” in 2003, because otherwise Gonzalez would be pitching in Boston right about now.

Salomon Torres, last year’s co-closer with Gonzalez after Mesa was finally taken out of the role, returns to the setup role. Torres, who until the Bucs resurrected his career in 2002 was best remembered for his late-season meltdown as a rookie in 1993 which kept the Giants out of a playoff with Atlanta in the last “real” pennant race for many people, has been an outstanding setup man the last two years, appearing in 162 games with a below-3 ERA in 186 2/3 innings. There are some disturbing signs – his walk rate ticked up and his strikeouts dropped a year ago – but he still gets RH hitters out with regularity, and will probably hold up for another year in front of Gonzalez.

Roberto Hernandez was brought aboard in part to “mentor” Gonzalez. The 41-YO RHP had his best year since 2000 last season, holding right-handed hitters to a .569 OPS and going 8-6 with a 2.58 ERA for the Mets in front of Braden Looper. The key for Roberto last year is that he threw good strikes more often; he walked just 28 men in 70 2/3 innings, his lowest rate since 2002, and his strikeout rate of 7.88/9 was his highest since 1999. The age is a concern, of course, but he’s still throwing very well, and the Bucs hope to get one more year out of him. He’s had some shoulder problems this spring, but made his debut Monday, throwing a scoreless inning.

The Bucs reacquired Damaso Marte from the White Sox in exchange for Rob Mackowiak. Marte, who had originally been swapped with Ruddy Yan for Matt Guerrier in a deal that I’m sure Dave Littlefield would love to have taken back, has been a solid lefty setup man and occasional closer for the Pale Hose ever since, but Ozzie Guillen used him more as a LOOGY last year, which didn’t sit well with Marte, and he and Ozzie had words late in the season after Marte missed some time with a strained muscle in his upper back. Marte was still reasonably effective, but lefties hit him fairly well, and his walk rates and hits allowed ticked upward. He’ll take Gonzalez’s role as the #1 lefty in the pen. I think ’05 was an aberration and he’ll return to form in ’06.

John Grabow has pitched in exactly the role for which he is best suited on a major league team the last couple of years; occasional LOOGY and low-leverage middle relief. In two full seasons with the Pirates he’s pitched in 131 games, and has a win, loss, or save in 13 of them. Grabow doesn’t do much of anything well, but doesn’t do much of anything badly, either. He doesn’t get LH hitters out often enough to be a full-fledged LOOGY, doesn’t have enough quality pitches to be a starter, and doesn’t have a good enough single pitch to be a closer or setup guy. He’s an ideal 11th/12th man, though, and until he becomes arbitration-eligible (next year) he’s still cheap enough to keep in that role.

The Hurlers – Possibles

With Wells’s injury, there are four openings, two in the rotation and two in the bullpen.

Starters: Victor Santos (29), Ryan Vogelsong (28), Brandon Duckworth (30), Ian Snell (24), Sean Burnett (23), Tom Gorzelanny (23)

With Wells out until at least mid-season, there are two rotation slots available to these six pitchers. Gorzelanny is a long shot, but (a) he’s pitched well so far in spring training, (b) he has the best stuff of any of the six pitchers, and (c) David Littlefield likes him a lot. There were a fair number of people who rated Gorzelanny’s upside above that of Duke before last season, and Gorzelanny’s rapid rise to the majors (where he showed he wasn’t quite ready) did nothing to discourage that. He’s likely to go back to the minors, but he’ll be on call if he pitches well. He throws mid-90s, with a good hard slider and improving offspeed stuff. I do think his ceiling is higher than Duke’s, but nagging shoulder problems are a concern.

Of the other five, Santos was thought to have an inside track for one slot. Picked up in Rule 5 in the offseason, Santos is with his fifth major league organization in six years. With Milwaukee last year, he was actually a pretty serviceable fifth starter, posting a respectable 4.57 ERA in 141 2/3 innings. He’s pretty unique among major league players in that he was signed originally by Detroit out of a tryout camp. But he hasn’t pitched well in spring training, and Snell and Burnett have both done well, so he’s at risk. Santos doesn’t throw especially hard (upper 80s) and his breaking stuff is also pretty pedestrian.

Burnett had Tommy John surgery in 2004, and during his rehab the doctors also discovered a torn labrum, which was operated on last May. He was not expected to be back until sometime in May of this season, but he’s recovered faster than expected and has been pitching very well. Burnett’s fastball is usually upper 80s/low 90s, and before his injury he had a decent but not outstanding slider. Like Duke and Maholm, he knows what he’s doing on the mound, which helps him get by with less-than-top-of-the-line stuff. Whether he has his command back after missing a year and change is the question, and AAA is probably the best place to get an answer on that rather than in the major league rotation.

Vogelsong pitched garbage relief for the Bucs most of 2005, after making the team as the last pitcher out of spring training. He was 2-2 in 44 games, usually being the guy who replaced Wells or Perez after they walked their way into an early hole. His 4.43 ERA was his lowest in a full major league season. Vogelsong’s problem has always been command of his pitches; he can’t get the ball over consistently without taking something off of them, and his pitches lose their movement when he does take something off of them. He’s not progressing, and his early-spring performances give no indications that he’s going to be able to get major league hitters out often enough to be a major contributor.

Duckworth is in camp on a minor-league contract. He started 2005 as Houston’s fifth starter, which lasted all of two starts in which he was hammered. After four relief appearances, he disappeared, pitching poorly in AAA and resurfacing for one inning late in the season. He has pitched well so far this spring, but his major league experience suggests that he won’t be able to sustain it. Like Vogelsong, he struggles with command and is very hittable when he does throw strikes.

All that Ian Snell has done during his minor league career is get hitters out. He has yet to do that in his major league career, in relatively brief opportunities as a starter and as a reliever. Snell throws a low-90s fastball and a hard curve; his offspeed stuff is inconsistent at best, which has worked against him as a starter. His size (he’s generously listed at 5’11”, 170) also works against him, in the minds of those who run the organization and who don’t believe he has the stamina to last a full season as a starter.

If I had to guess right now, I’d guess that Santos and Snell will get the rotation nods at the start of the season, with Burnett getting the first call when needed and Gorzelanny right behind him. Burnett and Gorzelanny are left-handed, as are the front three in the rotation, and while PNC Park favors lefties (hitters and pitchers) I think it might be hard for the Bucs to sustain a rotation with four lefties.

Relievers: Snell, Vogelsong, Giovanni Carrara (38), Terry Adams (33), Matt Capps (22), Matt Whiteside (38), Marty McLeary (31), Britt Reames (32), CJ Nitkowski (33), Scott Strickland (30)

Carrara, who pitched well for Tracy in LA, is off pitching in the WBC; the rest of these guys are in camp fighting for two spots in the pen. Capps is the only one currently on the roster.

Adams and Whiteside have pitched in five games each already. Whiteside has been acceptable, Adams has not. The Bucs like Capps’s future but probably don’t like the idea of having him pitch as the 11th or 12th man in the bullpen this season, so my guess is that he goes to AAA. On performance so far, Reames and McLeary have the edge, but when all is said and done, my guess is that Carrara and one of Vogelsong, Adams, Reames, or Whiteside will get the call. None of these guys will be pitching in high-leverage situations.

Last year, the Bucs gave up 769 runs, fourth-worst in the NL behind three teams that play in hitter-friendly ballparks (which PNC Park is not). One reason was that the team allowed 612 walks, the worst in the NL. Tracy and new pitching coach Jim Colborn have emphasized throwing strikes, and with Duke and Maholm around all year, the team walk total should drop. While I don’t expect either Duke or Maholm to post sub-3 ERAs this year, they are likely to be improvements over the front of last year’s rotation; however, that’s the only likely improvement overall in the pitching staff. Trying to figure out where Perez will land is sheer guesswork, at this point, and the last two rotation spots are going to be mix-and-match all year until/unless Wells comes back (and who knows how he’ll do when he does). The front of the bullpen should be OK; the back of the bullpen probably won’t be. I see perhaps a 30-run improvement, but not much more than that. If Duke and Maholm have any struggles making adjustments to hitters the second and third time around – which can’t be ruled out – the staff could be no better than last year’s.

So What About 2006?

The Pirates underachieved against their Pythagorean expectation a year ago, by five games (they should have won 72 games based on RS/RA). Assuming a best-case scenario for improvement, in my opinion the team projects to be somewhere in the mid-70s win range. The pluses are Tracy, a better offense overall, and a full season of Duke and Maholm. The minuses are a lack of pitching depth, the ability of Perez and Wells (when he returns) to throw strikes, and the questionable offensive firepower behind Bay. I think it’s safe to peg the Pirates for about 75 wins – which will encourage people to think the team is moving in the right direction. I also think it’s safe to assume that I’ll be writing another variation on this same theme next year, unless the team’s ownership really does decide to take the All-Star Game money and run – and despite Kevin McClatchy’s emphatic denials, I’d give better odds on that happening than I’d give on the odds of the Pirates reaching .500.

2006 ZiPS Projections - Pittsburgh Pirates

Name               P     G   AB    R    H  2B  3B  HR  RBI   BB    K  SB  CS   AVG   OBP   SLG 
Bay                lf  148  542   90  161  35   5  32   99   84  122  16   3  .297  .395  .557 
Wilson             rf  124  421   64  112  25   3  20   67   44  117   2   1  .266  .363  .482 
Casey*             1b  140  540   69  169  34   1  11   64   48   46   2   0  .313  .373  .441 
Gerut*             rf  120  446   63  120  30   2  15   62   50   54   9   6  .269  .348  .446 
Randa              3b  144  534   66  148  41   2  14   72   42   78   0   1  .277  .332  .440 
Eldred             1b  133  476   66  119  22   1  32   86   31  135   4   2  .250  .300  .502 
Sanchez            3b  117  414   52  120  25   3   5   42   32   41   5   3  .290  .344  .401 
Paulino            c   112  401   54  109  18   1  14   51   31   69   3   1  .272  .325  .426 
Pond*              lf  111  408   49  107  27   1  12   56   38  108   4   3  .262  .329  .422 
Doumit#            c   118  387   55  102  21   1  13   53   27   74   2   2  .264  .327  .424 
McLouth*           cf  144  508   83  144  29   3   9   55   39   72  28  12  .283  .343  .406 
Edwards            3b  128  443   57  113  22   1  10   54   47   82   5   4  .255  .335  .377 
Duffy*             cf  127  484   77  139  19   5   6   46   30   82  19  13  .287  .338  .384 
Castillo           2b  122  437   55  121  15   3  10   53   31   68   4   5  .277  .325  .394 
Bautista           3b  126  442   52  109  23   1  15   61   38  104   5   4  .247  .315  .405 
Burnitz*           lf  147  541   66  130  26   2  21   79   53  106   4   5  .240  .311  .412 
Wilson             ss  160  628   70  171  31   8  10   68   35   63   7   4  .272  .314  .395 
Alfaro             3b  119  428   43  115  27   1   9   46   25   65   2   3  .269  .313  .400 
de Caster          3b  117  386   52   97  25   2  10   47   25   98   4   3  .251  .305  .404 
Stansberry         2b  133  472   64  112  22   7  13   62   40  118  13   6  .237  .304  .396 
Furmaniak          ss  141  511   61  127  21   5  13   59   33  115   9   7  .249  .301  .386 
Davis#             cf  130  505   76  133  20   3   3   39   40   70  32  13  .263  .326  .333 
Cota               c    89  303   32   72  18   1   7   37   23   75   1   2  .238  .296  .373 
Thompson*          cf  121  458   70  115  11   5   3   36   34   69  37  14  .251  .312  .317 
Dawkins            ss  107  341   44   78  17   2   7   37   26   74   7   7  .229  .291  .352 
Guzman             ss  135  485   64  122  16   6   4   46   18   85  18  10  .252  .278  .334 
Theodorou#         lf  125  250   30   55   8   2   2   19   23   42   6   3  .220  .294  .292 
Hernandez          ss  113  339   32   69  12   1   9   36   31  105   1   2  .204  .270  .324 

Name                 W   L    ERA   G  GS     INN    H   ER  HR   BB    K 
Gonzalez*            3   1   3.27  47   0    44.0   32   16   3   21   52 
Marte*               5   3   3.71  70   0    63.0   49   26   4   34   72 
Duke*               14  10   3.73  29  29   181.0  179   75  14   42  117 
Torres               7   5   3.82  80   0    92.0   85   39   7   32   56 
Maholm*              7   6   4.10  25  25   145.0  144   66  12   48  104 
Vasquez              3   4   4.21  50   0    62.0   53   29   6   32   66 
Capps                4   4   4.27  50   0    78.0   86   37   7   18   40 
Perez*               8   9   4.32  25  25   152.0  125   73  21   74  180 
Bayliss              1   2   4.50  41   0    66.0   59   33   9   31   62 
Strickland           2   2   4.50  30   0    30.0   30   15   5    9   24 
Burnett*             7  11   4.60  25  25   135.0  148   69  12   42   61 
Snell                7  11   4.62  31  25   156.0  154   80  25   50  131 
Carrara              4   5   4.63  64   0    72.0   69   37   7   35   54 
Santos               7  11   4.75  30  26   146.0  149   77  16   60   95 
Grabow*              2   4   4.81  65   0    58.0   57   31   7   26   52 
Hernandez            4   7   4.86  66   0    63.0   60   34   7   32   50 
Reames               4   6   4.91  38  10    99.0  101   54  10   45   69 
Wells                8  13   4.94  30  30   175.0  172   96  21   86  131 
Gorzelanny*          5  10   4.99  26  24   146.0  153   81  18   59  106 
Bullington           6  11   5.02  23  22   131.0  142   73  20   43   82 
Vogelsong            5   9   5.06  36  18   128.0  130   72  16   62   94 
Connolly*            5  10   5.07  26  25   142.0  155   80  19   53   82 
McLeary              4   7   5.08  41  10   101.0  103   57  11   51   75 
Whiteside            3   4   5.14  52   0    63.0   69   36  14   15   53 
Jacobsen             3   6   5.19  20  16   104.0  116   60  13   40   49 
Sharpless            2   4   5.34  37   0    59.0   50   35   6   45   64 
Johnston*            1   3   5.37  48   0    57.0   56   34   8   32   46 
Adams                2   5   5.49  53   0    59.0   63   36   5   35   41 
Duckworth            5  10   5.62  29  21   125.0  141   78  21   44   82 
Roach                3   8   5.77  34  16   120.0  141   77  23   41   61 
van Benschoten       5  14   5.83  29  28   156.0  171  101  26   78   92 
van Dusen*           4  11   5.88  27  20   124.0  143   81  24   48   69 
Starling             5  15   6.06  27  27   159.0  190  107  28   68   81 
Chiavacci            2   7   6.64  26  14   103.0  110   76  21   69   78 
Bloom*               2  11   6.73  24  24   115.0  131   86  22   75   64 
Peterson             3  15   7.01  27  26   145.0  175  113  33   83   76 

Disclaimer:  ZiPS projections are computer-based projections of performance.  
Performances have not been allocated to predicted playing time in the majors - 
many of the players listed above are unlikely to play in the majors at all in 2006.  
ZiPS is projecting equivalent production - a .240 ZiPS projection may end up 
being .280 in AAA or .300 in AA, for example.  Whether or not a player will play 
is one of many non-statistical factors one has to take into account when predicting 
the future.