Arizona Diamondbacks

First we’ll use Spahn, then we’ll use Sain,
Then an off day, followed by rain.
Back will come Spahn, followed by Sain,
And followed, we hope, by two days of rain.



• Gerald V. Hern, 1948

Thanks in large part to the poetic talents of Gerald V. Hern, the 1948 Boston Braves have more or less become the historical mascots of pitching staffs top-heavy with talent. As the September stretch run ratcheted into full gear, the Boston Post staff writer penned the stanza that would eventually morph into baseball shorthand for rotations short on depth but solid on the front end: "Spahn and Sain and pray for rain." The interesting thing, though, is that the ’48 Braves were actually a pretty well rounded staff. "Ninety-Six" Bill Voiselle turned in 215 innings with a 106+ ERA (roughly Greg Maddux’ 2003) while 27 year-old rookie Vern Brickford and veteran Red Barrett contributed 146 innings of 117+ and 128 innings of 106+, respectively. All in all, the team had five guys on the staff that could be reasonably expected to provide them a quality start on any given day. It’s just that the more pedestrian 3 through 5 guys were severely overshadowed by All-Star (Sain) and future Hall of Famer (Spahn) ahead of them.

In some ways the Arizona Diamondbacks have been a similar team over the past couple of seasons, especially since the mystical, magical carpet ride of post-season 2001. When Curt Schilling was acquired in 2000, the Snakes’ identity gelled around the idea of he and Randy Johnson gunning through opposition, and with their World Series co-MVP performances in 2001 the legend was more or less sealed for all time. But the myth isn’t so true as all that, when you drill into the bone of the thing. Even in 2000, the year Schilling was acquired, the Diamondbacks were getting solid work from Brian Anderson (213 IP, ERA+ 117.) In 2001, Miguel Batista stepped up to become the third guy (139 IP, ERA+ 136), a trend he continued through last year while steadily picking up innings. And while no one is going to confuse Rick Helling’s 2002 with quality baseball, Brandon Webb stepped into the spotlight last year with 180 innings of Rookie of the Year quality.

The D-Backs never fielded a staff as complete as Spahn and Sain’s Braves, but with Johnson and Schilling on board for one more go ‘round and Webb and Batista penciled in for 350 or so innings of significantly above average hurling, the team was quite possibly on the cusp of finally filling out those ‘48 shoes. Throw in a breakout year for John Patterson or Andrew Good and Lord knows what might have been, but we never will. Schilling is now Red Sock, Batista a Blue Jay, their respective slots in the rotation filled by some combination of Elmer Dessens, Shane Reynolds and Steve Sparks. As such, the 2004 squad of arms may finally bring to fruition the myth that never actually was.

First they’ll pitch Johnson, then they’ll throw Webb
Then a trip to the hot springs, and recuperative bed
Then back will come Johnson, with his 40-year frame,
Then Webb three days straight, to save Reynolds the pain.

Okay, it needs a little work around the edges, but you get the point, right?

Catcher – Robby Hammock, Brent Mayne, Bobby Estalella

Robby Hammock underwent knee surgery in February and is still not quite ready to take the punishment behind the plate. That’s kind of sad, because he’s a decent looking prospect if he can play. He can turn a fastball well enough, takes a few walks here and there, and hits .285-.290. For the most part he’s turned in .450+ slugging percentages across the minors and stepped into the majors last year and did pretty much exactly the same: .282/.343/.477. It is worth noting that he’s been old for his age at every level, but still, an 820 OPS for a catcher in the bigs is nothing to sneeze at. The Snakes will need him to return as soon as possible and repeat those numbers over a real sample size. Otherwise Brent Mayne starts, and no one wants Brent Mayne to start because Brent Mayne can’t hit. But on the likely chance that Mayne does start, Bobby Estalella’s around, and he can’t hit or field.

First Base – Richie Sexson

The BIG MOVE of the off-season. The improvement the team should see at first base this year shouldn’t be understated. Lyle Overbay is a nice looking kid with a Mark Grace swing, but when you can turn 56 bags (20 doubles, 4 homeruns) into 232 bags (28 doubles, 45 homeruns) you kinda gotta jump. I suppose you should add Junior Spivey’s totals into that calculus too (92 bags), but still... Richie Sexson is worth getting. He provides the first real cleanup hitter the franchise has ever known and, if you believe in such things, puts a little fear-of-God into pitchers looking past Luis Gonzalez. Alex Cintron certainly never accomplished that last year. As a 29 year-old, Sexson should be in his prime, and just a couple of years away from the age at which Arizona usually offers 10-year contracts.

Second Base – Roberto Alomar

Ah, the memories. Two years ago Chris Dial and I had a nice, thorough knockdown drag out about Roberto Alomar. He, the Mets fan; me, the sane voice of reason. He, the "WOOOO, we just got an All-Star 2B", me the "Marcus Giles will outperform him this year."

God, I love being right. Arizona is making a lot of noise about "regained bat speed" and "an extra step in the field" this spring, and hell, this is the team that managed to choke .343/.396/.464 out of Carlos Freakin’ Baerga last year, but really, let’s be reasonable.

Age OPS+

31. 140
32. 113
33. 149
34. 91
35. 81

Throw out the swan song of 2001 and map the damned trend. Ask Barry Larkin if you can use that fork when he’s done with it. Luckily for the club, they have Scott Hairston in the wings, if he can ever figure out how to use that big leather glove they give him when he’s not hitting.

Third Base – Shea Hillendbrand

.290/.315/.450. Can throw a little glove, but maybe not as much as some think. Essentially Vinny Castilla, but that’s better than Craig Counsell.

Shortstop – Alex Cintron

Cintron did some damage in the minors, and in his first full season in the majors, did a little damage there as well. Only 25, he’s young, can hit for average with power for the position, and doesn’t embarrass himself defensively. Looks a lot like Angel Berroa, in fact, only without the ROY award. Cintron should be a staple of the D-Backs lineup for a few years, but it is probably unreasonable to expect much more out of him than his 2003 (he’ll probably regress a little, actually.) Still, .300/.350/.450 is a pretty nice package out of your shortstop.

Left Field – Luis Gonzalez

LuGo is a damned fine player. Anyone who thinks he’ll ever hit 50+ homeruns again is on crack. .300/.400/.530 is actually star caliber production for all left fielders currently abiding in the human plane, and I wouldn’t be shocked to see the BA rise a little, the OBP fall a bit, and a possible spike to.550-.560 in SLG now that Sexson lurks in the on-deck shadows behind him.

Or, protection could be a load of horseshit. You decide.

It does bear mentioning that Gonzalez will be 36 this year, and his career path is not that of a true superstar. His decline could come rapidly and precipitously, any year now. Greg Colbrunn is the insurance policy, for what that’s worth, but he’s no spring chicken himself.

Center Field – Steve Finley

Speaking of age and injury risks, have you met Steve Finley? Although, really, the guy’s clocked in for .280/.350/.500 and a 140+ games for five years straight now, so maybe you should give him the benefit of the doubt now. Or maybe not. He’s 39. He’s lost a step defensively. His primary backup is Donnie Sadler.

The Snakes need him out there every day. Donnie Sadler makes Brent Mayne look good.

Right Field – Danny Bautista

Danny Bautista had a nice little burst of productivity from 2000-2002, coincidentally his age-28 through age-30 seasons, on the merits of which the D-Backs installed him as their everyday right fielder. In 2003, he dropped back down to below average production (OPS+ 80.) His defenders will point to nagging injuries that kept him out of games and out of sync all year. His detractors will suggest that he is finished as an even marginally productive player and has begun his long slide into oblivion. Count me among the latter. Colbrunn and Sadler man the backup slots here as well, and that could spell seriously low production from RF, especially when adjusted for position, in 2004. None of those three are likely to be a league average RF, in fact.

The Bench – Greg Colbrunn, Matt Kata, Scott Hairston, Donnie Sadler, Carlos Baerga

Greg Colbrunn apparently did not like Seattle and prefers the desert air. Good for him. He’s always been a guy without a position, and while he’s now too old to complain about not getting playing time, he’s still a solid multi-position backup and pinch hitter to have around. If you believe in splits, he’s a prime example. He crushes LHP.

Matt Kata is the middle-infielder foil to Colbrunn’s corner outfielder/1B character. He’ll never hit enough to play every day, but he can bounce around from 2B to SS to 3B as needed and not completely embarrass himself with the stick.

Assuming he can learn how to field, Hairston is the future at second base, but he’ll not be there this year. Most likely he’ll go back to Tucson for a final year of seasoning (and defensive drills) while Alomar holds his place at the BOB. If he does make the ML roster this spring, he’ll be a decent PH off the bench who can spell the old guy a couple days per week, but don’t count on it. He’s better off playing every day in Tucson and with Hammock hurt the team needs the roster spot for the backup backup catcher. When he does take the big league job, his offensive profile looks something like Marcus Giles, for the record.

Donnie Sadler sucks, and if anyone can explain to me Carlos Baerga’s sudden rebirth as a useful part last year, outside of voodoo and chicken bones, feel free. I am all ears.

The Rotation – Randy Johnson, Brandon Webb, Elmer Dessens, Shane Reynolds, Steve Sparks, Casey Fossum

Randy Johnson is a very difficult projection. On the one hand, he’s Randy Freakin’ Johnson, stupid-nasty-filth and have-a-nice-day. On the other hand, he’s 40 and coming off a season more or less lost to another in a long line of injuries. He will either dominate or is finished. There is no in between. If he doesn’t dominate, if he doesn’t return as Randy Freakin’ Johnson, the Diamondbacks have no chance. Without him the rotation is in shambles from day one and will not recover.

Brandon Webb is the hope for the future. He was the best rookie pitcher in baseball last year. He must now repeat the performance. His performance is as pivotal to the team’s success as is Johnson’s, because he is truly the last line of defense in the rotation.

Elmer Dessens is living off the reflected glory of one freak year: 2002. Unfortunately for Diamondbacks fans, his true level of performance is much closer to 2003, and he won’t bounce back any more than Ron Villone, Ryan Dempster or Omar Daal will. But he’s better than Shane Reynolds, who is the anti-Christ and my personal demon, of whom I will not speak any more. Seriously, Reynolds was done two years ago, it’s just no one remember to tell him. A series of back injuries robbed his fastball of 3-5 MPH (and it’s reportedly down another 2-3 this spring) and he’s losing command for placement too. It’s almost obscene to even watch him try any more.

Steve Sparks is a 39-year-old knuckleballer who managed to lose the battle for fourth starter with aforementioned anti-Christ. That just isn’t good. His ERA’s been 5.52, 4.72 and 5.71 respectively, since 2001. I like knuckleballers on principle, but Sparks isn’t Charlie Hough. He won’t help in 2004. His spot is destined for Casey Fossum, former BoSox prospect, as soon as his shoulder heals up.

The Pen – Matt Mantei, Jose Valverde, Oscar Villerreal, Shane Nance, Mike Koplove, Randy Choate, Jim Parque, Andrew Good

Hey look, Matt Mantei’s hurt! Wow. Think they want Brad Penny back yet?

When healthy, the D-Backs’ pen is one of the best in the game. Mantei, on the six occasions per year when he pitches, is dominant. Jose Valverde, Mike Koplove and Oscar Villarreal can all shut down opposing offenses. (Villarreal should probably be starting, actually, but he’s not.) Same goes for veterans Choate and Parque. Unfortunately, about half of them are not healthy. Mantei has torn fingernails, Villarreal a bum elbow, as does Shane Nance. Valverde, Koplove, Choate and Parque are all currently healthy, and the pen should be strength by the end of things, but right now there’s a lot of red flags on their health.

Management – Bob Brenly, Joe Garigiola, Jr.

They like them some veterany goodness out there in the dessert, that’s for sure, but they do have a World Series banner that’s less than three years old to show for it. They’ve also made a noticeable effort to move young talent into the middle infield positions while squeezing as much as possible out of their aging contracts (Johnson, Gonzalez, Finley), and the Sexson move was sterling. They have a lot of work to do in rebuilding the rotation, but have show the ability to identify pitching talent in the past (though not the young variety.)

They do like to cry about money a lot too.

Conclusion

The Diamondbacks don’t really have the rotation to compete in 2003. They’re not a terrible team, like say, the Reds or the Pirates, but they’re stars are aging (or aged, more correctly) and their youth hasn’t really found their feet yet. The rotation could be really, really ugly if Johnson or Webb falter, and God help them if both should. Assuming the two star pitchers pitch well, it’s a year of mostly blah, with a sliver of hope for wildcard contention if Lady Luck decides to dance exclusively in the desert this year.

2004 ZiPS Projections

Name               P    AVG   OBP   SPC    G   AB    R    H  2B  3B  HR  RBI   BB    K  SB  CS 
Colbrunn           1b  .314  .366  .587   54  121   18   38  13   1   6   23    9   17   0   0 
Gonzalez*          lf  .286  .396  .545  149  545   86  156  43   4  30  102   90   70   4   3 
Sexson             1b  .291  .388  .558  161  604  100  176  34   2  41  124   87  151   1   3 
Baerga#            2b  .307  .361  .438   88  192   24   59  16   0   3   25   13   20   2   1 
Cintron#           ss  .307  .354  .448  130  489   78  150  28   4  11   65   33   40   4   4 
Tracy*             3b  .312  .360  .422  133  516   85  161  29   2   8   62   34   52   0   2 
Alomar#            2b  .275  .354  .413  145  542   81  149  37   4  10   64   63   75  14   4 
Ansman             c   .258  .322  .472   93  326   53   84  18   2  16   53   28   97   2   2 
Hammock            rf  .280  .340  .435  100  361   52  101  20   3  10   47   30   64   3   3 
Hillenbrand        1b  .288  .319  .454  141  549   68  158  36   2  17   79   23   75   2   2 
Finley*            cf  .255  .332  .426  137  462   62  118  25   6  14   58   48   79  11   7 
Bautista           rf  .280  .336  .404   74  225   22   63  12   2   4   25   17   37   3   2 
DeVore*            rf  .268  .321  .423  128  463   65  124  25   4  13   59   32  100   5   5 
Kata#              2b  .275  .320  .409  122  516   80  142  28   7   9   56   31   81   6   5 
Hairston           2b  .254  .308  .413   91  334   52   85  18   4   9   40   23   81   4   2 
Ramirez            cf  .257  .327  .376  107  346   42   89  12   4   7   36   36   79   8   5 
Brito              c   .268  .319  .370   69  257   32   69   8   0   6   31   17   37   1   1 
Terrero            cf  .269  .311  .369  112  431   70  116  17   7   4   37   24   99  13  17 
Olson              3b  .251  .299  .355  121  442   61  111  20   1   8   48   26   97   7   7 
Mayne*             c   .238  .306  .333  106  345   32   82  16   1   5   34   31   53   1   3 
Estalella          c   .178  .284  .341   42  129   13   23   6   0   5   16   18   45   1   0 
Sadler             2b  .207  .294  .282   94  188   34   39   7   2   1   12   20   38   7   5 

Name                  ERA   W   L   G  GS     INN    H   ER  HR   BB    K 
Koplove              3.04   2   1  61   0    68.0   59   23   3   17   55 
Mantei               3.07   6   3  40   0    41.0   32   14   4   12   47 
Johnson*             3.19  15   9  31  30   220.0  171   78  22   66  273 
Webb                 3.35  13   8  29  28   172.0  145   64   7   66  165 
Valverde             3.71   4   3  63   0    63.0   48   26   4   34   77 
Villafuerte          4.06   5   6  66   0    82.0   74   37   6   36   69 
Fossum*              4.08   6   7  36  21   130.0  117   59  15   46  128 
Villarreal           4.21   8   8  53  12   124.0  121   58  11   49  100 
Ward                 4.32   3   4  44   0    50.0   52   24   4   16   28 
Gonzalez             4.37  11   8  30  27   177.0  175   86  12   47  104 
Nance*               4.44   5   7  52   0    81.0   76   40   9   35   73 
Sparks               4.45   9  10  38  23   182.0  185   90  22   57   91 
Raggio               4.50   0   1  12   3    24.0   24   12   1   12   14 
Reynolds             4.53  11   9  25  25   153.0  159   77  19   45   89 
Lyon                 4.68   7   6  32  14   100.0  111   52  11   27   55 
Patterson            4.68   7  11  28  25   148.0  145   77  15   68  113 
Good                 4.83   5   8  27  24   149.0  164   80  27   29   98 
Dessens              4.93   6   9  32  30   179.0  195   98  26   55  107 
Perez                5.06   3   4  26  20   128.0  137   72  15   52   76 
Randolph*            5.44   3   6  37  17   124.0  125   75  13   75   87 
Daigle               5.52   5  11  29  27   163.0  189  100  25   67  103 
Parque*              6.48   4  10  25  24   125.0  153   90  22   61   54 

ZiPS Projections are not playing time predictors; they project a player's performance given playing time in the majors in their accustomed role. As with all projections, specific knowledge of non-statistical attributes of the player should temper what the computer says.