Atlanta Braves Preview

The last October that included playoff baseball yet not the Atlanta Braves, Maggie Thatcher was still Prime Minister of the UK. Kuwait was an Iraqi province. Lech Walesa was running for president in Poland while George Herbert Walker Bush’s administration was leaking seats from a Democratic controlled House. The record of the year was Bette Midler’s “Wind Beneath My Wings.” The top-grossing movie was “Dances With Wolves.” NBC debuted an odd little sitcom based on nothing more than a stand-up routine by Jerry Seinfeld while upstart “fourth network” Fox was mocked for running a poorly animated cartoon about a dysfunctional family. Julio Franco was 31.

The question is not if, but how.

Much like 2004, the Braves overturned a third of their roster again this winter. They lost three of the four starting pitchers and both their starting left and right fielders. The right fielder in question was their offensive engine last year. On any other team that, combined with an off-season of major free agents signing with the competition, might lead to fear and doubt. But most other teams don’t have a run of success that predates Tony Blair by two governments.

Catcher

Johnny Estrada, Eddie Perez – The day Johnny Estrada became a Brave, my mother-in-law was visiting. She, my wife and I had gone out for lunch and some errands. When we returned home, there was a message on the machine. It was my buddy Cookie, college chum, best man at my wedding, etc. The message said, “JOHNNY F*CKING ESTRADA!!! JOHNNY F*CKING ESTRADA!?!!? YOU GOTTA BE F*CKING KIDDING ME! WHO THE HELL IS JOHNNY F*CKING ESTRADA?!”

At this point, even Johnny F. Estrada has to be amazed. For a guy whose primary claim to fame ought to be “he was significantly cheaper than Kevin Millwood”, Estrada has pulled something somewhat useful out of his nether regions. Hits for average (for a catcher), with power (for a catcher.) Doesn’t walk much, but drives the ball to the gaps. No one is ever going to confuse Estrada with Mike Piazza in his prime, but unless Piazza rebounds in New York, you’re unlikely to find a significantly more productive catcher this side of the DH league.

As always with a Bobby Cox team, the primary catcher will rest regularly. For this reason, Eddie Perez will continue to astound physicists worldwide by moving under his own power. As long as he manages that feat, he’ll catch every fifth day or so, coach the Hispanic gentlemen on the bench when Pat Corrales isn’t around, and suck the blood of goats to stay alive. Perez is slotted to be Mike Hampton’s personal catcher, a strategy that very well could result in the LaRussic event of a pitcher batting eighth. Regardless of which slot in the order he is assigned, Eddie Perez will not hit. He will not run. He will not pass go or collect two hundred dollars. Watching him attempt any of these things will be painful.

First Base

Adam Laroche and Julio Franco – Adam Laroche exploded in the second half of 2004, slapping a line of 302/368/576 on the board after the All-Star break. Granted, it’s 172 at bats, but it is something to keep an eye on. Laroche, despite his gains last season, is still tagged as a strict platoon player. Unless he hits himself into the full-time role he’ll most likely be rested against LHP. His platoon partner will once again be Father Time. Starting against lefties and as the primary pinch, Franco posted a 309/378/414 in 2004. As an analyst, you really want to say something about “watch out for age related decline” but then you realize he’s already 73, so what the hell is another year or three going to hurt? I fully expect an OPS around 900 from Laroche and an 800 out of Franco, with both playing stellar defense.

Second Base

The Marcus ™ -- As long as he manages to avoid full body collisions with anyone else on the diamond, The Marcus ™ is the best second baseman in the game. In fact, he is primed to break out above and beyond his already All-Star levels. He’s a sleeper for MVP consideration in the post-Bonds world.

Third Base

Chipper Jones – It is good to have Chipper back where he belongs. Contrary to what you might have heard, he is not the worst defensive third basemen in the history of baseball. Having seen Bob Horner play the position, I can assure you he’s not even the worst third baseman in the history of the franchise. And as long as he’s not, his bat puts him on a HOF track at the position. Jones suffered from nagging hamstring injuries through the first half of 2004, and they brought his numbers down significantly. He should rebound some in 2005, play mediocre to poor defense, and anchor the lineup. With that said, it should be noted that Chipper is well to the right of the wrong side of 30, and hamstrings don’t get better as you age. It’s a bit disingenuous to say his poor 2004 averages were due to nagging injuries without noting that nagging injuries are, more or less, the reason people get worse as they age.

Shortstop

Rafael Furcal – They should threaten to send this guy to jail after every game this year. Furcal is what he is at this point: 280/340/400 at the top of the lineup with speed to burn. Great range in the field, a cannon for an arm, and occasionally a prayer guiding the throw. 2005 very well could be Furcal’s last season with the Braves.

Centerfield

Andruw Jones – Spring training stats are meaningless. Spring training stats are meaningless. Spring training stats are meaningless. Spring training stats are…damn! Just damn! Andruw is just cranking the ball this spring. Yeah, yeah, yeah – fifty at bats, Voros’ law, sample size reductio ad absurdum, yadda, yadda, yadda. But he’s just cranking the ball this spring. Sammy Sosa hitting twenty dings in a month cranking. Barry Bonds “you’re soaking in it” cranking. Big Mac with a needle hanging halfway out his ass cranking. Just damn cranking the ball cranking. Andruw’s jacked eleven homers this spring. His BA is back up to the .300+ levels he was posting back when he was the “next Willie Mays” tearing through the minors. Now, I’m as skeptical of small samples as anyone, and I’m not predicting anything here, but the word out of Orlando is Jones has finally heeded two-year-old advice (received at various times from both his hitting coach, Terry Pendleton, and the real Willie Mays) to widen his stance, thus giving him a more solid base to swing from. He’s not out in front of off-speed pitches any more. He’s staying back long enough to lay off of those sliders down and away, the ones that just eat him up. He’s…well, he’s just knocking all holy hell out of the ball, to the tune of a 1.400+ OPS. Yes, it’s spring training. Yes, it’s probably a fluke. But the entire point of spring training for veterans is to toy with approaches and tweak stances.

If all of this nonsense is just that, spring training nonsense, then Andruw is good for 270/350/520 with exemplary defense. If it’s not all nonsense and he just had the Sosa Circa ’97 light bulb moment Braves fans have been waiting a decade for, he’s your National League MVP.

And just in case you forgot, Andruw Jones is one day older than Carlos Beltran.

The Corners

Raul Mondesi, Brian Jordan, Ryan Langerhans – As most people have figured out by now, this is the weak point. The Braves go from J. D. Drew’s MVP-lite performance in right field last year to, well, Raul Mondesi and the Carnival of Persecution Complexes. Mondesi is, quite simply, impossible to predict. He’s not good by any meaningful definition of the term, but he could be adequate so long as his head remains mostly attached to this reality. I figure that’s more likely with Bobby Cox managing him than anywhere else he might have gone, and so long as he gets past the nagging hamstring stuff that’s bothered him this spring (a big “so long as”) he’s probably good for an 800ish OPS. Not Drew ’04 or Sheffield ’03 by any means, but a serviceable hitter in the bottom half of the lineup. His defense will be atrocious due to his having the range of a boiled cabbage, but he’ll make a couple of high light real throws on runners and the talking heads of sports radio/TV will continue to mistake him for a defensive superstar.

Left field belongs to Brian Jordan and Ryan Langerhans, with Jordan getting the majority of the at-bats until such time as he pulls something. I’m pretty sure the Braves used up all of their “don’t get hurt” mojo last year, what with Drew and Eli Marrero both turning in highly productive years, so Jordan is probably meat by the middle of May. That means Langerhans would step in as the full-time guy, a job he showed he should be ready for by his performance in Richmond last year. Of course, then he came into Orlando this year and proceeded to suck air like Paris Hilton on an all weekend raver, essentially handing his platoon role back to Jordan in gift-wrap. Langerhans will never be much more than a place holder in the majors, but he plays excellent defense at all three outfield positions and should be able to build a career out of fourth OF slots and/or teams, like the 2005 Braves, that need a guy that can fill a full time position, if not excel while doing it.

My fearless prediction here is that, much like the Charles Thomas experience from 2004, left field is where Cox and company works their magic most notably. All rational measures suggest barely replacement level production from the position, so of course I’m guessing Cox squeezes a 900 OPS out of it just to spite logic and reason. And Mets fans.

Bench

Nick Green, Wilson Betemit, or Esix Snead – The primary pinch hitting will fall to whomever isn’t playing first base that day, be it Franco or Laroche, and the odd man out of the corner outfield threesome. After those two, you have the backup catcher, who Cox won’t use to pinch hit at all, the backup middle infielders and, perhaps, a fifth outfielder.

Green and Betemit are on the team. Green covers second and is “Marcus got run over by a reindeer” insurance. He can’t really hit, or play anywhere but second, but he’s a useful pinch runner and after his alien possession month subbing for Marcus after the Andruw collision last year, he’s probably endeared himself to Cox as the “you remind me of how badly I sucked” gritty infielder. Betemit backs up short and third base, and maybe spots some outfield here or there. Although in all honesty, the real backup should something long-term happen to Chipper at third, is Andy Marte down at Richmond, Betemit is a capable spot starter on the right side of the infield with enough power to eventually build himself a regular third base job for some team, somewhere. That team won’t be Atlanta as he’s squeezed by Chipper’s return to the infield and Marte’s seemingly inevitable arrival this year or next. As he’s developed physically Betemit has become awkward fielding short and will have a hard time convincing major league coaches that his bat is worth the gracelessness of his glove. He’s also developed a reputation as a lackadaisical and guileless player, neither of which will win him points with Braves management. With that said, forget for a minute all of the hype from five years ago and remember that this kid is still only 22. For the time being he’s a useful multi-position backup and the third most dangerous bat off the bench.

If the team decides to carry a fifth outfielder north with them, it will now be Esix Snead. Brown was a perfectly serviceable fourth outfielder at the major league level and might actually be better than Ryan Langerhans for the long haul. Unfortunately, he played pretty poorly this spring and was unceremoniusly cut. Esix Snead, on the other hand, has had a stellar spring, a fact that in no way absolves him of his absolute suckitude. He has a career’s worth of hitting like an autistic five year old to outweigh his .300 batting average and flashy speed, but we thought that about Dewayne Wise last year too. Most likely, the Braves will leave both behind and rely on Chipper as the emergency fifth outfielder, clearing space for a 12th pitcher in the early going.

Starting Pitching

Tim Hudson
John Smoltz
John Thomson
Mike Hampton
Horacio Ramirez

John Schuerholz masterfully retooled his starting rotation this winter, flipping uber-prospect Dan Meyer for Hudson and sliding John Smoltz back into his starter’s gig. Hudson has since been locked up long-term and Smoltz’ contract, which was an albatross when tied to the neck of an 80 inning reliever, has been restructured to defray some of the immediate expenses. This is the sort of work that makes Schuerholz and Cox noticeably better than their peers.

The Braves 2005 rotation has three major questions. First, can Hudson reverse the trend in his K rates or pitch around them, or are they indicative of a more serious decline to come? Second, can Smoltz stay in the rotation for 200 quality innings or was his arm only saved the last three years due to his relief role? Finally, will the angry DIPS gods catch up with Horacio Ramirez and beat him senseless? I feel comfortable answering the first two optimistically. Hudson, despite his slipping K rates, is still a hell of a front line pitcher, the kind Atlanta hasn’t really had since Maddux and Glavine began to slip toward mortality. On top of that, I can’t really think of a guy who has come to Atlanta and worsened under Leo Mazzone’s watch, so I’m willing to give the benefit of doubt to the club that owns pitching in the majors. As for Smoltz, I’m one of three people on the planet who actually take the guy seriously when he says getting up and down in the pen on back to back to back days was actually rougher on his arm than starting. I suspect that, now three years removed from his last surgery, Smoltz is more likely to remain healthy and productive as a starter, where he can regulate his exertion levels during games as well as plan his week around a regular schedule of throwing and resting. I’ve got Hudson and Smoltz clocked in for 420 innings of 130 or so ERA+, combined.

Horacio Ramirez? My optimism runneth dry for good old HoRam. The DIPS gods are going to catch up to him, and they are going to wail upon him with some righteous fury. I’m talking Damien Moss in San Francisco and Baltimore type of righteous fury. Ramirez is not a young Tom Glavine, and he cannot continue to excel while putting roughly 212 base runners on per inning. And while we’re at it, can we stop calling him HoRam? That just sounds dirty, like something Denny Neagle would do in an alleyway.

Mike Hampton and John Thomson? 400 innings. League average.

Relief Pitching

Dan Kolb
Chris Reitsma
Kevin Gryboski
Ramon Colon
Duct Tape
Bailing Wire

Dan Kolb makes John Smoltz’s move to the rotation possible. As such, we welcome him to Atlanta. The fact that he hasn’t been able to get career minor leaguers out this spring makes us worry, almost as much as those poor strikeout rates from last year.

If Kolb falters significantly, don’t be shocked to see Ramon Colon tapped as the next in line to try closing. He impressed during his call-up last year, to the point he was added to the post-season roster, he throws gas and he throws strikes. Cox and Mazzone have never shied away from using kids to shut down games, from Mike Stanton to Mark Wohlers to Kerry Ligtenberg to John R*cker.

If you can burn from you mind the images of Chris Reitsma giving up, what, 38 or so runs in the last three innings of Game 5 of the 2005 LDS you might recall that, prior to his 80th game appearance, he was a pretty solid reliever, occasionally showing flashes of brilliance. Of course, it’s very unlikely you can get Game 5 out of your head, as such implosions, like videotaped beheadings, are deep memory burns. So long as the 90 appearances don’t catch up to his arm this year, Reitsma should be a useful setup guy.

Kevin Gryboski, if he’s not DL’d, will be called into tight situations with runners on and be asked to induce a ground ball double play. Either he will induce said ground ball double play or he will give up a three run jack. Either/or, nothing in between.

Other people who are floating around Disney World looking for a relief role include Tom Martin, Buddy Hernandez, Gabe White – check that, they designated him for assignment for the purpose of giving him his unconditional release today. So no Gabe White. They signed Jay Powell and stuck him down in Richmond until his arm is ready to go in August. It’s not really clear who are going to finish out the pen. That, and whether or not they carry a fifth outfielder is what the last week of spring is going to decide. Regardless, the management team that brought you Chris Hammond’s return to the bigs will patch something feasible together, even if it takes until May.

Management

Is there any doubt at this point that Bobby Cox, John Schuerholz and Leo Mazzone, as a unit, deserve induction into the Hall of Fame? Fourteen years and counting just doesn’t happen. It’s unheard of. These guys have won with Sid Bream and Steve Avery too young to drink. They’ve won with Jeff Treadway and Raffy Belliard. They’ve won with Deion Sanders and Damon Berryhill. They’ve won with Mike Devereaux and Dwight Smith, with Ryan Klesko in the outfield, with Eddie Perez playing every day. They’ve won with Keith Lockhart, Walt Weiss, Randall Simon and John R*cker on the same damned team, with Gerald Williams as the starting left fielder, with the desiccated remains of Wally Joyner. With Rico Brogna and Ken Caminiti at first base. They’ve won giving 800+ at bats to Dewayne Wise, Nick Green, Jesse Garcia and Mark Derosa. The only time they came close to not winning the gods decreed there be no playoffs, which only goes to show how much the gods hate Dave Gallagher. Maybe their sh*t don’t work in the playoffs, but really, until someone beats them in the regular season, they own the division. Almost literally. There is no better management team in baseball.

Other

There are a couple of loose ends that, while not breaking camp with the big club, quite possibly could bear impact on the season anyway. Firstly, there is the looming monster of Andy Marte. Marte is squeezed for a position in Atlanta and for the time being the club is happy to send him down to AAA for seasoning and a few saved clicks on the arbitration clock. Nonetheless, prior to being demoted to the minor league camp, Marte was the best looking hitter in the Braves major league camp. He’s primed for superstardom by all rights and omens. He also has many possible paths to the majors. If Chipper gets hurt, he steps in at his natural position at third. If Jordan-Langerhans or Mondesi tank, he steps in either as an outfielder or via Chipper moving back to left. And if anything convinces the franchise to turn the tables on Adam Laroche, Marte pushes Chipper across the diamond to first. Most likely for ’05 is option two, with Marte playing left field until his position opens for him. This is the pattern the Braves used for Chipper himself, before the knee injury in 1994, as well as Ryan Klesko to a lesser extent. By this time next year, Marte should be an everyday player in Atlanta, setting up a beautiful battle of super-kid third basemen subtext for Braves-Mets series for a decade to come.

The other minor leaguer to keep an eye on is Jeff Francouer. Francouer isn’t nearly ready for the majors at this point and will start 2005 in AA Mississippi. But the franchise has him pegged as a future starter in one of the outfield positions. He has the potential to be a young Brian Jordan, sans the physical damage of playing in the NFL, and that’s a valuable thing to have for six essentially free years.

Finally, Kyle Davies pitched himself well out of consideration for a big league rotation slot with his spring this year, but he’s still the next in line, should the DIPS gods be too harsh to poor HoRam. Given a couple of years, Davies projects to be a top of the order starter, kind of like Dan Meyer out in Oakland.

Summary

Braves good. Win division. Eat banana. Actually, what with the year ending in 5 and all, I’m saying they go all the way. Brian Jordan’s your World Series MVP.

2005 ZiPS Projections

Name          ERA   W   L   G  GS     INN    H   ER   BB    K  HR 
Smoltz       2.81   2   0  71   0    77.0   65   24   16   77   5 
Hudson       3.27  14   7  31  31   209.0  197   76   56  143  10 
Kolb         3.69   3   2  59   0    61.0   57   25   25   45   3 
Hernandez    4.02   4   3  47   0    65.0   54   29   34   66   5 
Thomson      4.07  13   9  33  33   199.0  208   90   48  129  22 
Reitsma      4.54   8   7  58  11   117.0  124   59   35   72  14 
McConnell*   4.54   7   5  34  14   101.0  110   51   32   53  11 
Colon        4.55   6   5  56   5    97.0   99   49   39   66  10 
Ramirez*     4.85   7   6  22  21   130.0  140   70   54   76  14 
Powell       4.85   1   2  44   0    52.0   53   28   27   33   5 
Hampton*     4.85  11  11  30  30   180.0  195   97   77   89  16 
Vasquez      4.97   4   5  52   0    67.0   61   37   43   62   7 
Bernero      5.03   6   7  38  16   127.0  140   71   48   89  18 
Gryboski     5.06   3   3  64   0    48.0   49   27   28   28   3 
Sosa         5.28   5   8  35  14   109.0  114   64   56   75  15 
Mears        5.37   5   6  42  11   104.0  119   62   42   57  15 
Martin*      5.40   1   1  75   0    45.0   46   27   24   33   6 
Davies       5.41   5   7  26  26   138.0  130   83   88  129  20 

Name         P    AVG   OBP   SLG   G  AB   H 2B 3B HR   R RBI  BB   K SB CS 
Jones        cf  .272  .354  .502 158 596 162 34  2 33  92 103  74 138  6  5 
Jones#       3b  .278  .388  .491 147 515 143 27  1 27  79  92  94  89  3  1 
Furcal#      ss  .297  .358  .430 154 644 191 30  7 14 116  70  62  84 26  8 
Giles        2b  .317  .396  .500 120 454 144 34  2 15  76  65  53  70 13  4 
Langerhans*  rf  .276  .369  .441 131 460 127 27  2 15  80  61  65 109  8  6 
Estrada#     c   .306  .364  .440 128 445 136 33  0  9  49  64  35  56  0  0 
LaRoche*     1b  .294  .367  .478 116 391 115 25  1 15  57  58  44  90  0  1 
Marte        3b  .262  .345  .440 119 409 107 20  1 17  58  55  50 107  2  1 
Johnson*     lf  .271  .334  .433 126 432 117 25  3 13  61  51  38 103 12  5 
Mondesi      rf  .242  .316  .432 121 451 109 25  2 19  58  61  48  81 12 10 
McCarthy     lf  .284  .349  .422 118 391 111 20  2 10  47  50  37  90  3  2 
Betemit#     3b  .253  .321  .376 110 423 107 17  4  9  51  45  41 101  5  4 
Thorman*     1b  .235  .292  .365 135 468 110 19  3 12  44  54  35  95  5  2 
Barnes       rf  .293  .337  .453  89 311  91 18  1 10  45  47  19  28  5  4 
Francoeur    rf  .245  .278  .367 121 433 106 16  2 11  60  48  16  78  9  4 
Pena         ss  .234  .265  .320 131 465 109 16  0  8  53  37  16 100 22 15 
Mendez       dh  .270  .296  .379  87 322  87 18  1  5  33  37  10  40  1  1 
Joseph       cf  .238  .286  .282 118 425 101  9  2  2  53  28  26  97 23 11 
Snead#       cf  .228  .304  .288 111 382  87 11  3  2  50  27  39  73 36 19 
Franco       1b  .266  .334  .358 112 271  72 11  1  4  30  32  28  62  2  1 
Jordan       lf  .245  .299  .381  83 286  70 16  1  7  30  32  20  51  1  2 
Perez        c   .244  .283  .368  84 242  59 12  0  6  16  27  13  33  0  1