Baltimore Orioles Preview

Last year in this space, I wrote “this year the O’s should be somewhat better than they were last year and may even push .500.” It turns out I was right on. The O’s were unlucky last season and deserved to be a .500 team. Unfortunately, their run balance didn’t match their record. While the Birds finished 78-84, they scored 842 runs and gave up 830. That should have resulted in an 82-80 record. Four games isn’t that far off but when a team is shooting for .500, it’s a big deal.

This year, the Orioles have a regional competitor. Despite Peter Angelos’ best efforts, the Montreal Expos have relocated to Washington, DC. Angelos still has not extracted his pound of flesh from his fellow owners in the form of territory fees, but the Nationals have captured the region's attention and any reduction in attendance this year will no doubt be compensated, both for the short and long term.

For much of the offseason, the O’s looked as if they were actually trying to stagnate. If they couldn’t improve through the free agent market and saw a decline at the gate it would be easier for Angelos to prove the market couldn’t support two teams. But, the O’s did improve this offseason, if only marginally.

OFFSEASON MOVES:

Additions:
RF Sammy Sosa
RP Steve Reed
RP Steve Kline

Additions by Subtraction:
DH/1B David Segui
DH/LF Marty Cordova
RP Buddy Groom

Subtractions:
OF/2B Jerry Hairston

STARTING LINEUP:

The O’s starting lineup in 2004 was considerably different than the one that took the field in 2003. The 2004 offense scored 842 runs which was 5th in the AL. Unfortunately for the Birds, the Red Sox and Yankees were 1 & 2 in the league. The O’s scoring did not come from homeruns; the team had only 169 homers, good for 8th place in the AL. The top four teams in runs scored had over 220 and two had over 240. Although the Orioles were not at the top of the league in walks, they did finish a more respectable 5th, albeit a distant 5th as they were as close to last as they were to 4th place. Where the Orioles excelled was in batting average, finishing 3rd in the league at .281, right behind the Red Sox and Angels. They also stole over 100 bases for 5th in the league, but were much more likely to be caught stealing than any other team that stole over 100. The offense did do well at hitting doubles, finishing 5th in the league in that category as well.

The team had a goal of adding a big thumper to the lineup in the offseason. They missed out on Carlos Delgado who seemed to be their top choice and settled for a trade for Sammy Sosa. Much has been written about the Sosa deal, but what is most important to the Orioles is that the Cubs will pick up a great majority of his salary and the vested option year has already been bought out. Basically, the Orioles will be paying Sosa what they paid David Segui last season- $7M. Marty Cordova didn’t even play for the O’s last year, but he made $3.5M. How’s that for production? Even if Sosa continues his decline rather than plateauing at new level, this is a major improvement. Sosa’s addition with the maturing of Larry Bigbie and a healthy Jay Gibbons should greatly increase the O’s homerun output. It should also increase the Bird’s walk totals. Strikeouts will increase as well, but that shouldn’t have too much impact on the offense. Better K’s than doubleplays. Also, the loss of Jerry Hairston should improve the club’s SB rate. Hairston was caught 8 of 21 attempts last season.

CATCHER Javier Lopez age 34

Javy Lopez did exactly what the O’s wanted last year. He came in, stayed healthy, and he hit. Lopez actually was a little upset at his usage last year. Given his age and position, he wanted more days on the bench. He made some noise about two-thirds of the way through the season, but Manager Lee Mazzilli kept trotting him out there just about everyday. He caught parts of 132 games averaging 8 1/3 innings per appearance behind the plate and DHed 21 others for a total of 150 games played. As a comparison, Ivan Rodriguez, a real ironman behind the plate, caught 8 fewer games and played 15 fewer games total. Given the roster’s composition this year, Lopez should be able to actually rest the days he’s not catching. Expect 125 games caught and only about 10 at DH this year if he stays healthy. If he puts up another healthy year with an OPS+ of 120 I think even those who complained about his contract initially will be satisfied.

FIRST BASE Jay Gibbons 28

Gibbons had established himself as a very consistent player prior to last season. But last season can be chalked up to a nagging injuries as back spasms early in the season and a strained hip flexor late in the year ruined Gibbons' season. Gibbons is a guy who can produce serious power when healthy and has averaged a HR every 20 ABs going into last season. Last year he only had 10 in 346. While he’s never going to be an outstanding hitter, he consistently put up a 110 OPS+ prior to last season. There’s no reason to believe he won’t reach that level again this year. Gibbons has never played a lot at first and doesn’t really show smooth athleticism on the bases or in the outfield, so he may look awkward at first even after he learns the position. Gibbons will likely bat 7th for the O’s.

SECOND BASE Brain Roberts 27

Roberts won the second base position and leadoff spot when Jerry Hairston was injured to start last season and never lost either spot. Roberts led the league in doubles and finished fourth in the league in stolen bases. He also slightly increased his walk rate, increasing his OBP for a fourth straight season. A scrappy little player, Roberts should be expected to continue his marginal improvement this year, his age 27 season. It should be noted that Roberts is a league average fielder, but hustles a lot, so he has a pretty strong defensive reputation. Roberts will bat leadoff again.

THIRD BASE Melvin Mora 33

Nobody knows exactly what set Melvin Mora off two years ago, but everyone hopes that it continues. Most people aren’t believers, but it’s hard to refute the evidence; Mora’s hit over .315 two straight years, his OBP has been around .418, and his SLG has been over .500. Both years his OPS+ has been 148. To have gone from a slightly below-average hitter to one of the league’s best makes little sense, but since his streak has now lasted 250 games, it’s hard to argue that it won’t continue. On defense, Mora adjusted slowly to third base and once he settled in his range proved to be good and his reliability was average. Nobody is going to confuse him with Scott Rolen or Eric Chavez around the hot corner, but his defense won’t be a liability. Look for Mora to bat second in the lineup.

SHORTSTOP Miguel Tejada 29

Tejada plays everyday. That’s nothing new for shortstops in Baltimore, but it is something the O’s haven’t seen since Cal Ripken moved to third for good in 1997. I don’t know if any team improved more from 2003’s player to 2004’s player than the Orioles did with moving from Deivi Cruz to Miguel Tejada. Two-sixty-nine. That was Deivi Cruz’s On-Base Percentage in 2003. Cruz had a OPS+ of 72 and 55 RC. In 2004 Tejada has an OPS+ of 126 and 125 RC. Everyone knows that Tejada led the league in RBI, but did you know he also led the league in double plays? How about sac flies? Tejada is a solid if not spectacular defender at short and won’t hurt the O’s on defense. Tejada should continue his All-Star level production from the three hole in the lineup.

LEFT FIELD Larry Bigbie 27

Bigbie was finally given a starting job last season and he proved himself worthy of that chance. While a slightly below league-average hitter isn’t exactly what a team wants from its leftfielder, it’s better than any of the other options the O’s have. The reason that Bigbie is less than optimal is simple; he just doesn't have the power you want from a corner outfifelder. His .340 OBP is solid as is his .280 AVG. He makes up for his limp stick with a great glove. Both his range and his consistency (perhaps read concentration) are terrific in left. Bigbie will probably bat 8th in the order.

CENTER FIELD Luis Matos 26

Luis Matos spent a large percentage of the season on the disabled list last season. He’s a year older and perhaps a year slower in 2004, but at least he appears healthy. It’s hard to predict what Matos will do after a tremendous 2003 and a injured 2004 where he didn’t perform well even when healthy. At worst he should be a solid defender in center. The O’s can take one position off offensively. Matos will bat last.

RIGHT FIELD Sammy Sosa 36

Sammy Sosa needed a change in managers and perhaps a change of scenery as well. Welcome to Baltimore. The aging slugger joins Rafael Palmeiro as teammates with 500 homeruns. Since his best season (2001 not 1998), Sosa has declined in AVG, OBP, and SLG each year and each decline has been a significant step down. At the same time, his K rate has increased. I expect Sosa to be a league-average hitter this year. He should put up his share of homeruns as he makes a run at Willie Mays’ career total of 660 before he hangs it up. He will be a below-average fielder in right and will bat 4th or 5th.

DESIGNATED HITTER Rafael Palmeiro 40

Like Sosa, Palmeiro is also a league-average hitter now. While he has maintained his walk rate and actually reduced his K rate, his SLG has bottomed out. Raffy may be in his last season, so don’t be too hard on him if he doesn’t produce this year. He has had a long, productive career, that has for the most part, flown under the radar.

BENCH
C Geronimo Gil 29
OF/1B BJ Surhoff 40
3B/OF David Newhan 32
MI Chris Gomez 33

While none of these players will light the world on fire, they all have their uses. Surhoff and Newhan can be useful situational hitters and should Palmeiro not produce, Newhan should be a credible DH. Gil and Gomez can spell the O’s starters with solid defense.

PITCHING STAFF

ROTATION

RHP Sidney Ponson 28
RHP Rodrigo Lopez 29
LHP Erik Bedard 26
RHP Daniel Cabrera 24
LHP Bruce Chen 28/Matt Riley 25/Brian DuBose 29

The Orioles rotation is far from set at this point of the spring and regardless of how it is set on opening day, all eight of these pitchers should be in the mix for starts this season. The Birds put late and often very low bids on a lot of free agent pitchers and as a result, didn't bring in any of this year's prized hurlers. They also were rumored to be dealing for Javier Vazquez among several others. None of that happened and now the O’s enter the season with virtually the same pitching staff they had last season.

Sir Sidney was a huge, and I mean huge, disappointment last season. After his breakthrough in 2003, Ponson returned to Baltimore rotund and pitched terribly, especially during the first half of the season. His offseason was even worse. Now that he’s finally been released from jail, settled his case, and made it to camp, there are a lot of questions left. I think the O’s can rely on Ponson to be an innings eater, along with many other things, but at no better than league average.

Rodrigo Lopez is the only other pitcher who is guaranteed a starting spot the entire season. Lopez got back to where he was in 2002 and even exceeded that level of performance. His 2003 season was totally different. Most likely, he tried to pitch through injuries far too long in 2003 and that impacted his play. He should put up solid numbers, perhaps as good as 35% above league average with about 200 IP this year.

Erik Bedard pitched extremely well last season for a rookie. After missing most of 2003 due to Tommy John surgery, Bedard pitched well through the All-Star Break, then seemingly ran out of gas. The O’s shut him down in early September after 137 IP. Since they were out of the playoff hunt, this was a very smart move for a team not known for its good handling of young pitchers, much less anything else. Bedard should come back strong this year.

Daniel Cabrera was the local media darling last year winning 12 games as a 23-year-old rookie. He received a lot more credit than he deserved for those wins. Cabrera allowed 89 bases on balls with only 76 strikeouts in 147.2 IP which doesn't not bode well for the future. At 6’7” tall, one would expect a little more in the strikeout department. Also, his walk rate is troubling, especially when viewed alongside his K rate. I don’t think Cabrera will make it through the entire season without being pulled from the rotation at least one time.

Bruce Chen has disappointed a lot of teams in his short career. Chen first appeared in Atlanta as a highly rated 21-year-old in 1998 and expected to be the next in the long-line of Brave aces. But something didn’t work out. He pitched well in his first full season in 2000 but was traded mid-season to Philadelphia for half a season of Andy Ashby. Even though he finished out that season strong, he started 2001 badly and was dealt almost a year to the day to the Mets, when again he didn’t fulfill the now downgraded expectations. The Mets only held onto Chen for a few days in 2002 before they moved him to the Expos. He really suffered in a mainly relief role for the Expos before getting moved on again to the Reds later during the 2002 campaign. Despite a successful half-season in Cincinnati, he once again moved on for 2003, where he spent the beginning of the year with the Astros. Again, failing to succeed in a relief role, Boston took a chance on Chen, where he pitched okay. In 2004 the Orioles took a chance on Chen, and Chen performed. In almost 50 IP, almost exclusively in a starting role, Chen pitched extremely well. His 158 ERA+ was the best of his career and his 2-1 K/BB ratio was inline with his career record. Given a chance there is nothing in Chen’s past that indicates that he won’t perform at least at the league average as a starter. Given the lack of quality in the O’s rotation, I can only expect that Chen will get that chance.

Matt Riley was once the Orioles’ top prospect. He had some physical problems, some behavioral problems, and some performance problems over the ensuing five years. I have no idea what to expect from Riley at this point; he’s definitely not the prospect he once was and is somewhat of a cautionary tale about selecting 17-year-old high school pitchers with early picks.

Eric DuBose has been a spot starter for the Orioles the past two years. He was considerably worse in 2004 than he was in 2003, so he should not be relied upon to be a full-time starter. DuBose should be used as a long reliever and emergency starter at best.

BULLPEN

CL BJ Ryan 29
LHSU Steve Kline 32
RHSU Steve Reed 40
RHSU Jorge Julio 26

BJ Ryan has moved into the closer role after several successful years as the O’s primary setup man. He’s big, lefthanded, and seems to have finally harnessed his power last year. Given the fact that he’s been the Orioles’ best reliever the past two years, it’s good that they will be using him to close games this year. But, they have to continue to push his IP totals. Last year he finally broke through the LOOGY restriction. Previously he had many fewer IP than he had games. Last year he got to 87 IP in 76 games. He should be relied upon against both lefties and righties and given at least 85 IP over the course of the season.

Steve Kline has replaced Ryan and Buddy Groom as the LOOGY in the pen. Kline has consistently performed well. His ERA+ has ranged from 109 to 240 over the past seven years. Over his career, including his one season below average, his first, Kline has a 131 ERA+. This is much more consistent than Groom ever was. Kline is a very nice addition to the O’s pen.

Speaking of nice additions, how about Steve Reed? Reed has a 138 ERA+ over his 13 year career and has never had a year worse than average. Despite his age, Reed hasn’t declined over the past few years. Even in four seasons in Colorado, including the past two, Reed has done well. Expect him to keep up the good work.

Jorge Julio has been the Orioles closer for several years. They tried to deal him during the offseason for a starter, but that hasn’t worked out. Now he enters the season having lost his closer slot and being a slightly injured. At 26 Julio can be expected to keep up a league average performance at worst, giving the O’s a great bullpen.

STADIUM:

When Oriole Park at Camden Yards opened it was the beginning of the retropark craze. It also was a hitter’s haven. Some called it a bandbox. Some still do. Those who still do don’t have any clue about how Camden Yards plays. From 1992 through 1995 Camden Yards played as a hitter’s park, favoring batters to the tune of a 102-105 park effect each season. In 1996, things changed and since then, Camden Yards has bounced around in the 90s, but has consistently favored pitchers. The conventional wisdom has not followed suit. There was some tinkering with the fences a few years ago, home plate being moved, but things are back to the original configuration. In 2004, Camden Yards played as a hitter’s park again. Since that’s only one year, it is hard to get a gauge on how it will play this year.

What OPaCY has done is revolutionize the Orioles attendance and make every team believe that if they build a retropark they too will see a permanent stream of money pouring through the turnstiles. Despite the O’s losing, their attendance still ranks in the top third of the American League. From 1992-2000 the O’s were either 1st or 2nd in the AL in attendance each season. Then the losing started to take its toll. They have been 4th, 3rd, 5th, and 5th the past four seasons. That’s not bad considering where they have ranked in terms of on field performance. The Nationals will impact their attendance this year, so unless the Orioles come out of the shoot with considerable momentum, they will decline this year, substantiating Angelos’ argument and giving him more ammunition for his settlement with Major League Baseball.

2005 ZiPS Projections

Name                 W   L    ERA   G  GS     INN    H   ER  HR   BB    K 
Ryan*                5   2   3.08  74   0    73.0   53   25   4   33   93 
Kline*               4   2   3.93  71   0    55.0   57   24   3   18   33 
Reed                 5   4   4.16  65   0    67.0   72   31   5   19   38 
Ainsworth            7   4   4.36  19  17    97.0   95   47  10   40   84 
Maine                9   8   4.38  27  27   144.0  137   70  16   64  136 
Ponson              14  11   4.39  31  31   207.0  225  101  20   65  123 
Bedard*              9   6   4.43  25  24   128.0  119   63  10   65  112 
Lopez               12  10   4.53  33  25   169.0  180   85  21   53  120 
Bauer                6   4   4.54  42   9   103.0  107   52  10   40   65 
Borkowski           10   7   4.60  31  22   131.0  143   67  16   38   78 
Williams             4   3   4.63  61   0    68.0   78   35   6   19   27 
DuBose*             10   7   4.64  31  21   130.0  135   67  14   54   96 
Witasick             2   2   4.73  44   0    59.0   60   31   7   26   49 
Grimsley             6   4   4.76  73   0    70.0   69   37   5   39   50 
Julio                4   4   4.85  65   0    65.0   61   35   8   33   63 
Parrish*             4   4   4.87  59   1    85.0   79   46   7   54   77 
Riley*               6   7   4.90  25  25   123.0  118   67  15   66  116 
Rakers               4   5   4.91  50   1    66.0   64   36  10   30   61 
Chen*                5   5   5.12  37  21   123.0  127   70  24   45  111 
Fiore                5   6   5.36  44   6    99.0  116   59  12   42   49 
Rodriguez            2   2   5.45  57   0    71.0   68   43   8   49   62 
Baldwin              6   8   5.49  24  18   123.0  150   75  22   33   57 
Cabrera              8  10   5.72  31  30   151.0  155   96  14  110  103 
Forystek*            6  10   6.41  28  24   132.0  150   94  26   80   95 

Name               P    AVG   OBP   SPC   G  AB   R   H 2B 3B HR RBI  BB   K SB CS 
Tejada             ss  .310  .365  .517 162 648 103 201 39  1 31 124  50  71  6  1 
Mora               3b  .304  .394  .503 133 507  91 154 33  1 22  84  65  92 10  7 
Sosa               rf  .255  .347  .524 133 498  75 127 20  0 38  93  69 142  0  0 
Lopez              c   .303  .359  .509 137 505  71 153 28  2 24  85  40  89  0  1 
Newhan*            2b  .285  .341  .429 143 564  88 161 29  8 12  65  44 111 14  7 
Roberts#           2b  .273  .347  .372 142 576  91 157 41  2  4  54  67  78 25 11 
Gibbons*           rf  .267  .326  .439 134 510  62 136 29  1 19  75  45  75  1  2 
Bigbie*            lf  .288  .354  .438 128 452  67 130 25  2 13  60  48 101  7  3 
Palmeiro*          1b  .230  .332  .389 150 525  64 121 23  0 20  77  77  73  2  1 
Matos              cf  .275  .332  .415 120 472  66 130 27  3 11  54  34  91 15  7 
Young*             1b  .246  .304  .441 131 463  76 114 19  1 23  74  35 130  3  2 
Majewski*          rf  .266  .313  .418 117 414  61 110 21  3 12  55  26  63 11  7 
Raines#            cf  .259  .312  .327 130 452  62 117 16  3  3  34  32  94 26 18 
Rogers             ss  .243  .286  .334 117 440  58 107 23  1  5  38  23  78 16 11 
Gil                c   .247  .297  .345 114 385  42  95 20  0  6  38  26  76  1  2 
Surhoff*           lf  .281  .335  .373  90 303  35  85 11  1  5  36  25  38  1  1 
Huggins            1b  .234  .304  .345 105 351  40  82 18  0  7  37  34  78  3  2 
Gomez              3b  .260  .310  .351 101 342  34  89 15  2  4  33  23  40  2  2 
Stynes             3b  .225  .304  .349 111 315  37  71 20  2  5  36  33  48  2  1 
McDonald           c   .228  .302  .375  87 267  26  61 15  0  8  32  26  52  1  1 
Whiteside          c   .222  .261  .358  94 324  33  72 14  0 10  39  15  66  1  1 
Marsters           c   .228  .271  .351  80 276  32  63 19  0  5  30  14  75  0  1 
Fasano             c   .212  .250  .382  73 241  21  51 15  1  8  30  11  55  0  0 
Wilson#            ss  .216  .267  .328  83 204  18  44  8  0  5  22  14  19  1  2