New York Mets

The 2002 New York Mets signed Roberto Alomar, Mo Vaughn, Jeromy Burnitz, Jeff D’Amico and Pedro Astacio in an effort to improve the team and get back to the World Series, where they had been just two seasons before. I winced. Vaughn? He had missed the ’01 season and was old. We’d be lucky to get an 800 OPS out of him. Burnitz? Well, maybe we’ll get an 850 OPS out of him. Alomar – good deal, so we traded a promising lefty, but he is a Hall of Famer. D’Amico? He was good a few years ago. P. Astacio? He’s a nut. If he’s healthy, he’ll be okay. The signings didn’t give Met fans a good deal of hope, but it wasn’t the worst thing I could have imagined.

And then they played. And I wept, particularly on May 1, 2002. Or rather, this summed up the Mets season: Giants score on Mo Vaughn forgetting how to play baseball and Rey Ordonez doing something stupid on the basepaths.

Vaughn was a figurative joke offensive and an actual joke defensively over the entire season. Alomar turned in a repeat of his rookie campaign, looking as if he'd never played in the majors before. Seriously, compare his first season and his most recent season. Astacio and D’Amico weren’t any good, and probably weren’t healthy.

Then there was Burnitz. He turned in the worst season of any player in 2002. There was even a game in which Burnitz didn’t just subject the fans to terrible play but also twice allowed his bat to slip out of his hands resulting in fan injuries. Burnitz looked as if he were about to cry after making out after out after out. It was painful to watch.

The 2003 New York Mets signed Cliff Floyd, Rey Sanchez, Tom Glavine and Mike Stanton. They fired Bobby Valentine, whom I found humorous. They hired Art Howe.

And now, on with the show.

Manager - Art Howe

Howe has managed for 12 seasons in the majors and been fairly successful with his last four seasons being exceptionally so. His teams have increased their win total every season for five straight seasons. It should be easy for the Mets to improve upon 75 wins.

Howe seems to be the type of manager who writes out his lineup and let’s them play. The guys have to show up for work everyday, and then it’s up to the players. I like that in a manager. Over-managing is one of the most common errors in baseball today. He doesn’t steal with guys who can’t run. He doesn’t use the hit-and-run and he only sacrifices in the appropriate settings. He seems like a good Strat-o-matic player. He likes to use the IBB – which I don’t object to – with a GB pitcher and good middle infielders. He loves the defensive sub. If he has the gumption to stick Roger Cedeño in centerfield for most of the season, at least he’ll take him out in a double-switch in the seventh. He uses the LOOGY (left-handed one-out guy) when he has one, but he also lets his starters go deep.

What I don’t like about him is this: a dozen years ago he moved Craig Biggio out from behind the plate – he may try to convince Piazza of the same thing, and Piazza is far more valuable there.

He gets high marks from sportswriters in general (now – winning cures all ills), but I see him as the "middle of the road" manager. Not asleep, but not hyperactive.

Catcher – Mike Piazza

Mike Piazza is the best hitting catcher in the game – ever. His numbers were down last season. Is it age catching up to him (and catching 1300 games)? Maybe, maybe not. Piazza was actually worse in 1999, and he bounced back in 2000. It’s hard to tell. His OPS+ was 140 last season, and it foretold of the end? That’s still a long way to fall.

Piazza will be the best catcher playing in 2003. That’s one position the Mets don’t have to worry about.

First Base – Mo Vaughn

Mo Vaughn supposedly lost a ton of weight. We’ll see. Mo asked, "Am I too fat?" The Mets replied, "You’d have to lose 30 pounds to be ‘too fat’." He has lost a bit of weight – we’ll see how it helps.

Vaughn was dreadful in the field in 2002. He’s got fine hands for scooping, but that is an over-rated skill. He’s surprisingly short, which hurts infielders more than one might think, and it doesn’t help that Mo is about as athletic as Jabba the Hutt. He even adds poor footwork around the bag to his shameful defensive resumé.

All put, he’s a bad first baseman and probably cost the Mets on the order of 15 runs a season as compared to the average first baseman.

On the plus side, Mo’s bat really came alive in the second half, posting an OPS of 880 (ML avg 820).

Vaughn is another year older, but he can probably keep an 880 OPS up. Improving his play by 80 points of OPS should generate about 20 extra runs.

Second Base – Roberto Alomar

Alomar had tremendous platoon splits last season, and "not good" ones in 2001. Is he losing his swing from the right side? It appears so. Alomar may need his eyes checked or he may need to give up switch-hitting. He can hit enough left-handed to be a good player, but the Mets need him to be a star. He posted 850 OPS for a bunch of seasons, and I think he can again. The distribution of his failures worries me. He may need a platoon partner. I see him being better than ’02 by about 20 runs, and even more if he doesn’t have eye troubles and just had a poor season right-handed.

Alomar wasn’t very good defensively either, about 10 runs below average. It could be age, or adjusting to a new stadium. He was about that bad (-10) in 2001, so that could be his ability.

Third Base – Ty Wigginton

Wigginton hit a ton for the Mets in 120 PAs. His minor league career suggests nothing of the sort. He is only 25, so he could improve on his MLE (in the 700 OPS range). In short, the Mets are hurting at third base and the alternate option of playing Jay Bell is a terrible idea. I suspect they’ll trade for Robin Ventura or something mid-season. The loss of Alfonzo really hurts the Mets and whatever they do here will be 20-30 runs worse than Alfonzo.

Shortstop – Rey Sanchez

The Mets dumped Rey Ordoñez’ $4 million contract and signed Rey Sanchez to a $1.2 million contract. They instantly improved offensively and defensively and financially. That’s not always easy to do.

Okay, neither Rey can hit and both can field. Sanchez has always been a little better than Ordoñez at both. And Rey is just a placeholder and, assumedly, mentor for Reyes.

Sanchez won’t be 10 runs better than Ordoñez with the bat nor 10 runs better with the glove, although that is possible, but he’ll improve the team by 10 runs overall and that’s one more win in 2003.

Left Field – Cliff Floyd

Cliff Floyd has been mentioned as someone who hasn’t really been what teams that acquire him hoped he would be. He’s posted OPS+ marks of 130, 152, 143 the last three seasons. He’s going to post that again this season – 140ish. That’s pretty strong. Average leftfielders post an OPS of about 800, so those posting 950 should be considered really good. Floyd will be nearly 40 runs better than the Mets third outfielder last season.

Floyd is no great shakes with the leather, but he’s not, say, Roger Cedeño either. He’ll be below average (5-10 runs).

Floyd is only 30 and probably has at least three or four more good seasons in him – the Mets made a good move signing him.

Center Field – Roger Cedeno/Timo Perez

Okay, this is wishful thinking on my part, but I really, really hope Howe plays the better player of these two. That’s Timo Perez. Somehow Perez slipped through everyone’s radar. He hit very well in the minors and hit well in the majors in 2002. Perez’ 2002 RC/27 is better than Cedeño’s has ever been [Note: using RC because OPS will cheat Cedeño out of his SBs]. Perez posted a OPS+ of 106 last season and is still young (maybe). He could post a .300/.350/.450 season. That’s minimal improvement over 2002, and in line with his minor league numbers. He also can play defense. He is just average defensively, but that’s 10 runs (or more) better than Cedeño.

Cedeño posted an OBP of .396 as a 24-year old. He drew 60 walks in 525 PAs. You’d think he would improve after that. Two years later in Detroit he drew 36 in 572 PAs. What happened? Cedeño was bad in left field defensively – what will happen in center?

Right Field – Jeromy Burnitz

Burnitz is done. Stick a fork in him. See the Forecast 2003: Old Players article for my comments on Burnitz; it’s too painful to re-create.

Burnitz was terrible defensively and godawful at the plate. He is going to make $11.5 million this year which should set the standard for bad deals for a player that actually played.

If the Mets were smart (huh, huh, huh), they would play Floyd in right, Cedeño in left and Perez in center – and euthanize Burnitz. Any New York judge would be lenient since it would clearly be a "mercy-killing."

Tom Glavine was brought over from the Braves to be an ace. He’s 37, and everyone, including me, has said he couldn’t keep it up forever. Well, Braves fans always chuckled. Of course, now they are the ones predicting his collapse. Funny how that works. I look forward to Bobby Cox getting run for complaining about Glavine’s wide strike zone.

Glavine posted his fifth best ERA+ of his career in 2002. I wouldn’t look for a sudden drop to set in. He may not be as good as he was in ’02, but then he’s only had four better seasons in his career. Right-handed batters hit markedly worse in Shea, so Glavine will get a boost from that.

Some will point to his pre- and post-All-Star numbers and say he’s wearing out. His pre-AS ERA was 2.27 and his post-AS was 3.93. Unfortunately for those people his seasonal splits were just the opposite the previous season (4.55/2.53). He still keeps the ball in the yard, strikes people out and doesn’t walk people.

Glavine should be solid, posting an ERA in the middle-to-upper two’s. Glavine replaces a combination of Jeff D’Amico and Shawn Estes. He’s 30 runs better than they were.

Al Leiter used to be an odd-even pitcher in the mold of former Met Saberhagen - in even seasons he was good and in odd seasons, not so much. In 2001, he bucked the trend. He was not-so-good in 2002, so maybe he’ll be good again in 2003. Leiter actually pitched well for most of the season, but couldn’t keep the ball in the park at a few critical moments. His K/9 was up from ’01 and his BB/9 rate was down. He had a couple of games where he simply couldn’t get the ball down. It wasn’t pretty to watch. If he can keep the ball down, he’ll post good numbers. Going back-to-back with Glavine will be interesting as Leiter is in, in, in and Glavine is away, away, away in the location, location, location game. He’ll be about the same.

Steve Trachsel is a changed man. In early 2001, Trachsel agreed to be sent down to AAA to work on his game. He had an ERA in the 8’s. When he returned, he posted an ERA in the 2’s. He figured something out. I boasted in alt.sports.baseball-nymets that Trachsel would have an ERA of 3.50 in the coming season. Trachsel didn’t disappoint. He figured something out in that trip to Norfolk and he’ll be good again this season. He’s a sleeper in everyone’s fantasy draft because so few people studied this change in him. What he fixed I don’t know, but his success over the last 300 IP shows it is real. He’ll be solid again in 2003.

I must mention that he is the slowest working pitcher ever. Expect his starts to be really long. It annoys some fans to death.

Pedro Astacio isn’t healthy right. That probably means he wasn’t totally healthy last season. He’s lost strikeouts, which doesn’t bode well for the Mets and he’s likely to start the season on the disabled list for a torn bicep.

Astacio injured his shoulder in late 2001 and signed with the Mets when Houston declined to re-up him after he got injured with them. Astacio was good in the first half of the season (ERA 3.17), but, frankly, stunk in the second half (ERA 7.00). After not giving up more than 4 runs in any game through his first 22 starts, Pedro gave up 5 or more runs in 7 of 9 starts to the end of the season. Evidently, Astacio had a contract incentive that if he got to 180 IP, he would get a $7 million contract for 2003. Astacio staggered past the finish line, making one more start after reaching the 180 IP mark and getting his head ripped off. I think he may not have been injured, but just out of gas. It was a long season on the rebound from a shoulder injury.

Mike Bacsik is a lefty like Glavine. I suspect the Mets are hoping he will learn from Glavine. Bacsik can’t throw the cutter like Leiter, so that leaves the circle-change. If Glavine is considering a future in the majors as a coach, here’s a good opportunity. Bacsik’s father apparently pitched for the Rangers and Twins from 1975-80.

    Year Ag Tm  Lg W L G GS  IP  H  ER HR BB SO ERA *lgERA *ERA+
Sr. 1976 24 TEX AL 3 2 23 0 55.0 66 26  3 26 21 4.25  3.59   85
Jr. 2002 24 NYM NL 3 2 11 9 55.7 63 27  8 19 30 4.37  3.91   90

I’m pretty jazzed about David Cone pitching for the Mets. And he’s wearing #16. Cool. Since he hasn’t pitched well in some time, I’m keeping an open mind about what he’ll do when the clock starts ticking.

Armando Benitez is a closer who makes me want to stomp something cute and cuddly. His overall numbers are pretty dominant, but, boy, does he walk some guys when I happen to be watching. I think the closer position is over-rated, and I think Benitez is more highly regarded than he should be – he likes to see the "100" on the scoreboard. Those things considered, I think the Mets should trade him to a team that "really needs a closer", like, say, the Red Sox. But not for Shea Hillenbrand.

Small sample sizes aside, Benitez gives up too many home runs, allowing one home run every 8 innings. When you only pitch the ninth inning of close games, not allowing home runs is a really big deal as the win probabilities are really getting killed there. Benitez blew Game 6 in Atlanta when Kenny Rogers walked in Andruw Jones. Benitez has now allowed 8 HR in 30 postseason innings (28 games). That’s pretty much an assured blown save in each playoff series – sometimes two! Trade him to the Twins for Joe Mauer.

The rest of the bullpen has good parts and "WTF" parts. Mike Stanton has been very good the last few seasons. I heard that when he delivers the pitch, he mutters to himself (or thinks it really hard) "ground ball to second base". He’s certainly better than gathering re-treads like Graeme Lloyd or Donovan Osbourne. Oh. The Mets bullpen is pretty good. Scott Stickland can be successful if not abused and David Weathers can too. John Franco may throw some pitches this year. Franco can get out right-handed batters who simply have to swing – like Shawon Dunston and batters that have never faced him and are unfamiliar with his schtick. Leaving him to face non-qualifiers to these two conditions is a managerial mistake – Franco shouldn’t be held accountable. Despite his off-the-field habits, I like Grant Roberts pitching future.

The Mets bench is terrible – I’m not sure who’ll be sitting there, but Joe McEwing is an abomination. Shinjo is acceptable as a part-time player and defensive sub – he is a good fielder and the Mets need defensive subs. Marco Scutaro is a younger, better Joe McEwing. Why do the Mets have Super Joe again? If Tony Clark hasn’t lost it, he’ll make the bench a good bit better. That’s how bad it is.

When all is said and done, this Mets team should score 60-80 more runs and allow about 20-30 fewer. That will only get them to about 86-88 wins. That could win the NL East, but I wouldn’t bet on it.

Please note that my predictions don't match ZiPS. That's what makes an impartial system important and valuable; people aren't impartial and won't apply factors consistently. The computer will.

2003 ZiPS Projections - Click for info

PO Player       G  AB   R   H 2B 3B HR RBI BB  SO SB CS   BA  OBP  SLG
C  Piazza     129 457  71 135 23  1 30  95 57  85  1  2 .295 .374 .547
1B Vaughn     138 498  67 130 21  0 25  79 62  92  1  1 .261 .343 .454
2B Alomar     143 554  82 162 28  5 12  67 62  83 24  4 .292 .364 .426
3B Wigginton  119 447  56 126 28  1 10  52 46  72  2  1 .282 .349 .416
SS Sanchez    123 433  45 115 14  3  1  33 18  45  6  2 .266 .295 .319
LF Floyd      138 498  92 148 40  1 27  88 67  99 12  4 .297 .381 .544
CF Cedeno     131 472  64 128 15  5  7  41 40  83 35  9 .271 .328 .369
RF Burnitz    146 493  75 113 22  1 22  73 70 144  6  5 .229 .325 .412
c  Wilson      65 140  16  35  6  0  4  23  5  29  0  1 .250 .276 .379
1b Clark       97 318  40  80 19  2 10  45 37  80  0  0 .252 .330 .418
ss Reyes      154 566 107 141 28 12  7  47 37  76 39 22 .249 .295 .378
ut McEwing    103 217  28  53 12  2  5  27 12  49  6  4 .244 .284 .387
of Perez      128 408  52 118 22  5  8  43 22  37 10  7 .289 .326 .426
of Shinjo     116 364  43  91 18  2  9  44 24  57  4  2 .250 .296 .385

PO Player       W  L  ERA  G GS  IP   H  ER HR BB  SO
SP Glavine     12 15 4.42 35 35 220 207 108 25 93 126
SP Leiter      11 13 4.25 31 31 201 182  95 25 71 156
SP Trachsel     9 13 4.75 30 30 180 196  95 24 68 118
SP Astacio     11 11 3.97 30 30 188 176  83 26 66 166
SP Bacsik       7 10 4.61 32 23 158 200  81 22 40 100
RP Stanton      6  3 2.62 76  0  79  66  23  3 24  68
RP Weathers     4  5 4.15 74  0  78  77  36  6 37  62
RP Lloyd        6  5 3.80 74  0  64  64  27  5 21  41
RP Roberts      3  4 4.07 35 12 104 120  47  7 43  77
RP Strickland   6  5 3.86 69  0  70  65  30  7 34  78
CL Benitez      2  3 4.11 68  0  70  60  32 11 34  91
ZiPS is not a playing time predictor and should not be added for team totals.