Cincinnati Reds

The 2002 Cincinnati Reds played well for most of the season. They did finish third in their division but probably deserved a better fate. The Reds undoing? Interleague play. They got smoked to the tune of 2-10. The A’s and Mariners swept them, while they won one game from the World Champion Anaheim Angels and one from the Texas Rangers. Being swept by the Diamondbacks on the season (0-6) didn’t help either. The Reds were 6 games above .500 as late as August 11th, when they were just two games behind the Cardinals. Over the next month (through September 10th), they went 10-18. Right in the tank. One thing that didn’t help was Austin Kearns pulling a hamstring in the middle of a 14-game hitting streak on August 27 and being shut down for the rest of the season.

Another thing that didn’t help was allowing 5 runs or more in 15 of those 18 losses. When you don’t pitch well, you aren’t going to luck into many wins.

I can’t say I know why the Reds collapsed. Hopefully, this season, the pitchers can hold up and the young players like Kearns and Dunn can grow.

Manager – Bob Boone

Bob Boone is not a good manager. He believes too much in how the game was played in the 1970s and could learn a lot from Earl Weaver- who managed in the 1970s. Boone likes to hit and run and bunt and pitchout and tinker with the lineup. To me it looks like Dilbert’s pointy-haired boss doing anything to distract his boss’ attention from the poor performance on the field.

He’s not completely hopeless – he doesn’t seem to abuse his pitchers too much and uses the bunt in the proper situations. He’s willing to move Danny Graves to the rotation. Boone was a catcher, so maybe he knows something.

Boone has said he’s considering leading off with Adam Dunn for his high on-base percentage. He gets tons of points for that. However, I haven’t seen that happen much this Spring Training. Boone does what most managers would with his team – purported fast guy (Larkin and Lopez), the second baseman, then Dunn or Griffey or slugger of the day. Basically standard MLB-think lineup construction.

All things considered, I’d rather have Davey Johnson.

Catcher – Jason LaRue

Jason LaRue is a pretty good player. He hits well, for a catcher, and throws seeds. He killed baserunners in 2001, and that kept people from trying so much in 2002. He threw out 45% of baserunners in 2002. His overall value as a catcher puts him in the top 10 or so. That’s pretty good. His bat has been consistent and I expect him to post something like .320/.400.

First Base – Sean Casey

Casey has had chippy injuries his entire career. He has a torn calf muscle, a bad hamstring, rotator cuff surgery and a broken thumb. Casey’s isolated power (ISO) has petered out – from 0.200 in 1999 and 2000, to 0.150 in 2001 and 0.100 in 2002. He sat out some this spring with a "tired" shoulder. I don’t think he’s going to bounce back, and he is in need of being replaced. His OPS+ of 78 last season was horrible and I think he can improve on that, but he has no shot at being an average 1B in the NL. He has an above average glove, but there aren’t enough chances at first base to make up for his bad bat.

Second Base – Aaron Boone

Aaron Boone is a lot like his brother Bret – pretty good for a second baseman. I think the move will improve the Reds, provided Boone can make the pivot. Boone was an average to good fielding third baseman and played second some in the minors and he has feigned shortstop for the Reds before. Boone seemed to hit a ton – 38 doubles and 26 home runs is a lot of power. He’s had an ISO of about 0.200 for the last few seasons and his walk rate is stable. He hit 50 points lower than 2001 in 2002, but his present rate of production is still plenty for second base. If he brings his batting average up, with the expected rise in OBP and SLG, he could be the best hitting second baseman in the league and post numbers like Jeff Kent did in SF. We’ll have to wait to see his defense.

Third Base – Brandon Larson

In the Dominican League this winter, Russell Branyan damaged the labrum in his throwing arm. Ta-da! Brandon Larson is the Reds 3B. Larson had 23 games and hit a ton. He had hit a ton in AAA last season after getting his eyes fixed, but it was still his second time through and he was 26. He doesn’t walk very much and that could spell trouble in the majors once more tape of him circulates through the league. He’ll be 27 this season and probably be good – or at least good enough. He’s had good ISO at every level and will again – the question will be how much will he hit for average. On the other hand, he injured his hand to end last season. That could affect his power. Take that, Roscoe!

Shortstop – Barry Larkin

Barry Larkin is on his last leg. Actually, he was on it last season, posting an OPS+ of 71 – his second straight OPS+ drop of 20 points. His defense was below average, but not far from the middle of the pack. Unfortunately for Larkin, everybody looks at what he used to do - great defense and a powerful bat. If Larkin were just coming up today, he’d be Julio Lugo.

This is the last year on Larkin’s contract so this is his last season unless the Orioles sign him. I’d like to see Larkin post some good numbers, but a slight improvement on last season, say OPS+ of 90, is about the best we can hope for.

Left Field – Adam Dunn

Dunn’s rookie season at age 21, crushing MLB pitching got everyone’s heart a-flutter. His second season was very good as well, but not nearly as spectacular as his first. I’m surprised at how low projections for him are – Ron Shandler and PECOTA both have him slugging below .500. ZiPS has him hitting better than either. Dunn was average in the field and still looks to be serious masher. I happen to like his ZiPS projection. He has great plate discipline and plenty of power that will increase as he matures. He has shown he can handle left field defensively, I certainly wouldn’t move him to first.

Center Field – Ken Griffey

Griffey has had nothing but trouble since leaving Seattle. Sort of. For all the criticism he’s gotten, he still managed OPS+ of 128 and 130 in his first two seasons as a Red, which is outstanding for a centerfielder. Point of reference: Andruw Jones hasn’t reached an OPS+ of 130 yet. Okay, Griffey’s 2002 was a OPS+ of 100 – not lofty at all.

This season Griffey is healthy. So far. And he’s mashing the ball pretty good. I like Griffey’s chances at a return to an OPS+ of 150 or greater, but I’m an optimist.

Just so we’re all clear, Griffey is a lock Hall-of-Famer.

Right Field – Austin Kearns

Adam Dunn gets all the lip service, but I’m more impressed with Kearns. Dunn is actually 5 months older than Kearns and Kearns posted a much better "age 22 season". What is most amazing about Kearns, to me, is his absurd defensive performance. He caught everything hit to right field last season. Four fly balls landed in his zone and one of those he dropped. That’s simply, well, bonkers. He can’t really be that good, but he can be close. Turning balls into outs at the rate at which he did makes him very valuable. And he hit .315/.407/.500.

I think Kearns will be one of the top right fielders in the game for some time.

Jimmy Haynes is going to be the Opening Day starter for the Reds. Haynes won a lot of games for them in 2002, and this is his reward. Haynes is 31 already. His pattern as a full-time starter:

I’m going to predict a depressed number of innings – say 162. He’s clearly not durable in the year-to-year sense. I wouldn’t have him on a fantasy roster. It’s easy to explain – he gives up the long ball a bit more after having a season of hard work (>190 IP).

Ryan Dempster has been a budding star his entire career, since being called up by the Marlins in 1998. Many pundits became aroused by his 2000 season (ERA+ 122), but he was just kidding that season. He’s punched the clock for over 200 IP for the last three seasons, and while I suspect he was on the "Young Pitcher Death Watch" List in 2000-2001, he seems to have gotten through the bad part – although it’s tough to call him effective. Sucking, though, is not "Arm Injury". Baseball Prospectus 2002 book said, "if he makes 25 starts, it’s an upset." We have an upset – he made 33. I’m betting he makes that as long as someone wants to give him a shot. His HR rate is fairly constant, and high. His walk rate is high and his K rate is high, but falling. Can the Reds staff turn him around to 2000? I’d put more money on Leo Mazzone.

Paul Wilson is one of the Mets young guns that got chewed up throwing a zillion innings too young. Isringhausen made a comeback as a top-rate closer, Pulsipher is still trying to make it – everyone needs a LOOGY, and Paul Wilson is scratching his way back. After the 1996 disaster, it wasn’t likely Wilson would throw 190+ innings in a MLB season. He did in 2002. It was at an ERA+ of 92 and he saw his HR rate go up, his BB rate go up and his K rate go down. The Reds aren’t getting a bargain here, but as long as Wilson stays in the back of the rotation, he’ll get by. ZiPS likes him better than I do.

Danny Graves is moving from the bullpen to the rotation. Graves started four games in September in 2002 and pitched really well twice and pretty good once. I generally don’t think this move is a good one and that Graves won’t have the arm strength to pitch effectively over the course of a season when being asked to go 6 innings every time out. He’ll have to be sharp with good pitch repertoire in a way in which he hasn’t done as a professional. He’s been a very good reliever. I think trying to get more innings out of him is a good idea but I do not have any confidence he’ll be successful. But I don’t know how he’ll do. We’ll see.

The Reds moved their closer of 5 years to the rotation. If Graves gets tired or bombed, I suspect they’ll move him back. However, there’s no need. Scott Williamson was good enough to close in 1999, 2000 and in 2002. He had torn a tendon in his pitching elbow in 2001 and announced prior to the 2002 season, he wanted to be a starter. The Reds said to wait until the elbow was better - now he’s a closer. I can see Williamson being okay with that as a career, but he really wasn’t interested in being a set-up man. He’ll have an ERA in the mid to upper 2’s and get 35 saves or some such nonsense, keeping the Reds from missing Graves as a closer. Williamson’s H/9 is remarkably low – 6.2, and only 20 HRs in 280 IP. The set-up guys, LHP Gabe White and RHP Scott Sullivan, have been good in some seasons and not so good in other seasons. White was insanely good in Colorado his first season and insanely bad his next, getting himself into HR trouble in his second season. He’s been good in Cincy by avoiding the long ball, no matter how much chicks dig it. Sullivan had three excellent years before jumping time last season. He had some elbow trouble in May that may have the occassional flare-up. He had 62 outings for 69.2 IP and allowed 21 runs. The other 9 outings and innings he coughed up 32 runs. Bad hair days?

With Branyan injured, the bench consists of center fielders and shortstops. I understand that with Griffey and Larkin, you need that, but somebody is going to have to hit for the pitchers. The Reds bench is one of the worst I’ve seen assembled. Benny Agbayani has popped up in the Reds’ Spring boxscores, so that could help. Here’s hoping the starters stay healthy!

In the end, the Reds could compete. Griffey has to bounce back and the kids have to grow, but the Reds offense has some good hitters at C, 2B, 3B, LF, CF, RF and sometimes SS. I am not excited about their rotation at all. They’ll need Dempster to be good and Graves to make the conversion. If that goes right, they will be in the hunt. I see them stumbling home almost exactly like last season – 76-86.

2003 ZiPS Projections - Click for info

PO    Player         G  AB   R   H 2B 3B HR RBI  BB  SO SB CS   BA  OBP  SLG 
C     LaRue        117 370  45  91 20  1 13  50  27 103  2  2 .246 .297 .411 
1B    Casey        134 483  64 142 33  0 12  68  47  59  2  1 .294 .357 .437 
2B    Boone        140 518  71 132 33  2 22  75  47  94 21  7 .255 .317 .454 
3B    Larson       120 420  61 116 25  1 22  65  27 116  4  3 .276 .320 .498 
SS    Larkin       120 427  60 103 35  2  6  38  40  48 10  6 .241 .306 .375 
LF    Dunn         162 566 109 158 29  2 40  98 119 165 17  7 .279 .404 .549 
CF    Griffey Jr.  109 363  57  98 18  1 23  67  56  77  3  3 .270 .368 .515 
RF    Kearns       108 372  70 117 20  3 17  64  55  79  7  3 .315 .403 .522 
c     Stinnett      58 175  19  40  8  0  7  23  17  48  1  1 .229 .297 .394 
1b-of Branyan      122 344  49  82 13  1 23  55  46 135  3  2 .238 .328 .483 
if    Castro        82 197  19  45  9  1  3  15  12  37  0  1 .228 .273 .330 
if    Lopez        135 487  83 133 23  7 18  60  47 131 13  5 .273 .337 .460 
of    Taylor       125 396  54 104 16  6 10  43  20  91 16 10 .263 .298 .409 

PO Player       W  L  ERA  G GS  IP   H  ER HR BB  SO
SP Graves       6  6 4.04 67  2  89  90  40  7 26  57
SP Haynes      10 15 5.07 33 32 190 202 107 21 84 113
SP Wilson       8  9 4.66 31 26 168 170  87 20 62 122
SP Reitsma     10 10 4.36 34 25 159 165  77 18 43  99
SP Dempster    12 13 4.44 33 33 217 201 107 26 92 197
SP Etherton     3  4 4.94 17 17  93  96  51 16 30  70
RP Sullivan     4  5 4.40 76  0  94  88  46 13 34  87
RP White        6  3 3.41 66  0  66  57  25  7 16  68
RP Manzanillo   2  2 4.00 55  0  63  57  28  5 26  56
RP Riedling     3  3 4.35 47  0  60  55  29  6 28  54
CL Williamson   5  4 3.56 56  5  91  64  36  5 52 117

ZiPS is not a playing time predictor and should not be added for team totals.