New York Mets

The 2003 New York Mets season can be summed up with this: Roger Cedeno was the Mets leading hitter among players that qualified for the batting title. Oh, that’s just not good.

What went wrong:

Mike Piazza got hurt for four months. Cliff Floyd played hurt and hung them up early. Tom "Icarus" Glavine flew too close to the sun and came crashing down to the earth. Mo Vaughn didn’t lose a pound and missed almost the entire season. Art Howe turned out to be dim-witted, rather than pensive. Joe McEwing got 300 plate appearances.

What went right:

Jose Reyes looked great. Jae Weong Seo looked great. Jason Phillips looked great.

Oh, and Mo Vaughn missed almost the entire season.

No Met fan wants to spend much time ruminating about the 2003 season, so I will stop there.

Fortunately, the Wilpon ownership jettisoned General Manager Steve Phillips. The new GM is Jim Duquette. Duquette hired a stat guy, following the footsteps of Billy Beane, Theo Epstein and J. P. Ricciardi. Duquette proceeded to make some good moves, followed by some questionable ones. As it stands now, I’m reserving judgement on his ability as a GM because even Phillips made some good moves.

Here’s what has taken place so far:

Duquette did a good job with the Matsui and Cameron contracts – neither is bloated and likely to become an albatross. Looper and Garcia are fine signings – they are solid contributors at a reasonable price. The Todd Zeile signing was something else. By signing Zeile, the Mets were forced to trade LHP Jamie Cerda (it was a 40-man roster issue), receiving Shawn Sedlacek from the Royals. It was a move roundly cursed in the Met fan circles as throwing away a useful pitcher for a non-useful one, all for the sake of signing a bad player. My personal take was "So?" None of the players is likely to have an effect. If you subscribe to Baseball Prospectus’ favorite saying, "There is no such thing as a pitching prospect (TINSTAAPP)", and then it is even less troublesome. To me, the number of runs in a season Cerda can effect just aren’t enough to get all hot and bothered about. Of course, this type of dumb move could be a warning sign of the type of chicanery that Duquette will pull.

Re-signing Timo, Franco and Strickland are also fine marginal moves. Re-signing McEwing is stupid beyond belief. McEwing is a tremendous waste of a player, particularly in the light of letting Marco Scutaro go. Scutaro is a much younger, much cheaper and even better version of Super Joe. This is another one of those moves that signals Duquette is either not completely in charge or he has some hang-up for washed-up veteran infielders.

Duquette did make good decisions with his minor league contracts: OF Shane Spencer, RHP Scott Erickson, RHP Ricky Bottalico, RHP James Baldwin, and LHP Randy Keisler. Nothing fantastic, but certainly useful pieces if they have anything in the tank.

With a new GM, and a new eye toward evaluating players, the Mets’ future isn’t as gray as it once was.

There is good news and bad news for the New York Mets: the roster and positions are well set. There won’t be any surprises on the field that doesn’t involve aliens – and I’m not predicting aliens.

Catcher – Mike Piazza

Piazza pulled a groin muscle (his own) in the May 16 game against San Francisco. He was hitting .333 .422 .613 at the time, which suggests that his injury wasn’t a result of catching wear-and-tear. I suspect he’ll be the best hitting catcher in the National League by a good margin, particularly with Pudge Rodriguez and Javy Lopez moving to the American League. The biggest question is will Piazza be catching. The Mets' other catchers, Vance Wilson, who is one of my wife’s favorite players because she went to Wilson Vance Middle School, and Jason Phillips can both hit a little bit and are better defensively than Piazza.

Change from 2003: +15 runs

First Base – Jason Phillips

Phillips was very good at first base in his rookie season and was more potent offensively than two-thirds of the other NL first basemen, trailing just a few of the NL’s real stars: Helton, Bagwell, Thome, Sexson and Derrek Lee. He hit better than his MLEs would indicate, so I expect some regression to his previously expected performance, but he should still be above average. With Mike Piazza learning the position in Spring Training, the position has solid hitters at both first and catcher. Todd Zeile was signed to provide some backup at first and third, while being able to coach Piazza through the transition, as Zeile made the move from catcher himself.

Change from 2003: -8 runs

Second Base – Jose Reyes

Jose Reyes is a good shortstop and very young and fast. He came up in the middle of 2003 and showed all the flash a Met fan could want. He hit nearly 60 points higher than his MLEs project, so he may experience some significant regression at the plate. The scouting reports will be more severe, and since he got to play while the Mets were a very weak team, he’ll be viewed as a more significant threat at the plate. Reyes also has to make the transition to second base defensively. The biggest issue will be turning the double play. He has about six weeks of working with Kazuo Matsui, which brings a different style of baseball (Japanese) and big language barriers. Yo la tengo, anyone?

Either way, a full season of Reyes should be a marked improvement over Robbie Alomar and Joe McEwing, mostly on the defensive side.

Change from 2003: +8 runs

Third Base – Ty Wigginton

Ty Wigginton had an outstanding rookie season. Okay, it was a good rookie season. He started out strong, and playing every day simply wore Wigginton out and his bat became sluggish and his fielding, which wasn’t strong, worsened to Venus de Milo status – not just a statue, but a statue without arms. It was pretty clear Wigginton wasn’t ready for the everyday grind. If Wigginton has prepared better for this season, he may improve - I would put the odds at about 50-50. Wigginton is a placeholder for prospect David Wright. This position is not one of strengths for the 2004 Mets.

Change from 2003: None.

Shortstop – Kazuo Matsui

Kazuo "The Other" Matsui from Japan is signed to a three-year contract. This seems to be an ideal contract – not too long and not too short for a player at the tip of his prime. The big question is – how will his success in Japan translate to MLB? Clay Davenport did some work that put the bar around AAAA, but as more Japanese players came to the US, more data became available for analysis. I haven’t seen Clay’s update, but I’m sure the result is a much lower projection for power statistics.

Kazuo is a very fast, very good glove, power-hitting shortstop. With his power likely to be sapped by the change, Kaz should be closer to Ichiro than ARod. He’ll have a lower batting average than Ichiro, but should still be a solid improvement over the Mets’ shortstops not named Reyes in 2003, which is about 400 plate appearances.

Change from 2003: +10 runs

Left field - Cliff Floyd

Floyd played most of 2003 slightly injured, which did not surprise very many people. After the Mets were unofficially wiped out, Floyd ended his season. He posted a 132 OPS+ and was slow in the outfield. The Mets got what they were expecting in the signing, and had the Mets been in anything resembling contention, Floyd would have toughed out the rest of the season (so the story goes). As it was, he did his part and I expect his 2004 season to be as good if not better due to better health and better defensive support in the outfield. Floyd does get injured quite a bit, and he isn’t likely to play 150 games.

Change from 2003: +5 runs

Center field - Mike Cameron

Mike Cameron is an outstanding defensive centerfielder. His offense has had a nice Gaussian peak over the last five seasons. If that continues, Mets fans will be sorely disappointed with his offense.

Even with that, the Mets were very poor in centerfield in 2003, so Cameron will be a significant improvement. The combination of Perez/Gonzalez/Duncan just didn’t hit much. The change of leagues will almost certainly have Cameron struggling to start with and how quickly he adjusts will be a big factor in his season. Cameron’s biggest contribution will be with the glove. That will show up more in the team ERA than anywhere else.

Change from 2003: +10 runs

Right field - Karim Garcia/Roger Cedeno/Timo Perez/Shane Spencer

Right field for the Mets is not going to be pretty, which is sad because it has been the Mets’ weakest position for two straight seasons (at least). This is where Duquette and his staff have failed to recognize the position that should be easiest to upgrade with a hitter. Roger Cedeno is terrible and Duquette would be wise to trade him for a sack of BP balls or simply cut him.

Karim Garcia can hit a little and Timo Perez isn’t as bad as generally thought. Nonetheless, none of these guys is a major league starter, or at least shouldn’t be. Any of these guys is a solid bench player, but as a starter, the Mets will be below average by a significant amount. As this was easily the Mets weakest position, it won’t take much to improve. On the other hand, there are no guarantees this group can improve on the poor performances of the last few seasons.

Change from 2003: None.

The 2003 bench was awful. The 2004 bench will be better, although I don’t consider this significant – McEwing is still there, three extra right fielders, Wilson and Zeile.

Tom Glavine was terrible in 2003. If he’s actually done, then the Mets are completely hosed - I put that at even money as there is no real reason for him bounce back. He’s 38; it’s a much better bet that he is done, or at least done being dominant. Glavine may adjust to the strike zone and if he avoids the Braves, his value to the Mets will be higher. However, it has already been stated that he’ll face the Braves on April 6. Maybe last season was a fluke against the Braves - we’ll see. Glavine is a professional and may figure out an adjustment – but bouncing back to an ERA+ 125 or higher may be beyond him.

Al Leiter has a nice standard decline going over the last four seasons: ERA+ 136, 124, 112, 106. That’s a bad sign for the Mets. However, Leiter’s HRs were down and his walks were up. He tried too much to be like Glavine last season, attempting to pitch away for the first half of the season.

Leiter’s splits:

Pre-All Star ERA 5.57

Post-All Star ERA 2.14

All of Leiter’s peripherals were down after the ASB. As a watcher and scorer of Met games, it was readily apparent that Leiter stopped trying to be Tom Glavine, and went back to pitching hard down and in. Does that mean Leiter will be better in 2004? Given his age, I’m not sure he’ll be much better, but I suspect he will, because his peripherals were so much better in the second half of 2003.

Steve Trachsel has been steady since his brief stint in the minors a few years ago. He was solid in 2003, although on a slight decline, and he should continue that pace, if not improve based solely on Mets better defense. His ERA will come in somewhere around 0.5 to 0.75 runs below league average (ERA+ 110-120).

Jae Weong Seo was as good as could be expected. He struggled after splitting a fingernail, but came back too early from that injury. Once he had fully healed, he was dominant again. He should see his ERA drop if he is healthy all season. It is also possible the time missed from the fingernail injury prevented him from suffering from fatigue late in the season. Should that occur, Seo might be about the same, plus defensive improvement.

Aaron Heilman should be the number five starter. Jeremy Griffiths has been terrible, and now that Spring Training has started, there are rumblings that Tyler Yates may be in the 5-hole. Scott Erickson is also hanging around.

Heilman deserves to split time in the fifth slot. With the Mets unlikely to threaten the playoffs, a regular dosing of facing major league hitters will help him grow and refine his game. I doubt his psyche is fragile. The Mets should watch his innings and be ready with a quick hook to let his arm strength stabilize, but other than that, trial-by-fire is a dang good way to learn.

The rotation should be slightly better, mostly due to the improved defensive play behind them.

Change from 2003: +20 runs

The bullpen was not too bad in 2003, except for Armando Benitez. The Marlins now have Armando and the Mets have Marlin closer Braden Looper. Benitez was terrible in his half season with the Mets and Looper has to be better than that. The rest of the faces barely wavered. Mike Stanton should be better and healthier. Scott Strickland missed 2003 mostly. John Franco and David Weathers are all available. Grant Roberts should be back, and he may pitch well enough to get spot starts where an old guy is injured or a younger guy struggles.

Change from 2003: None.

Art Howe displayed a remarkable lack of knowledge of pitching matchups. It was amazing to watch him replace a left-handed starter with a left-handed reliever. He uses bad players apparently out of spite. He has poor judgement with regard to what a pitcher has and is slow with the hook. It is possible he is just unfamiliar with the players on his team, but he does not use them properly. Jim Leyland, in my opinion, was a good manager because he used players to their strengths (riding young pitchers notwithstanding). Howe doesn’t do that. If the Mets flounder as much as 2003, with healthy players, I expect Howe to be fired.

Much has been made about the addition of Rick Peterson. He may fix the Mets pitchers and keep them healthy. I don’t know what impact he’ll have on the older guys (Glavine and Leiter and Trachsel), but he should have a very positive effect on Heilman, Seo, Royce Ring, Jeremy Griffiths and Roberts. His work is more likely to be evident in 2005.

All things considered, the Mets should be a better team in 2004 than in 2003. It is pretty clear they will need several pitchers to bounce back to previously attained high levels and a few hitters as well. If Kaz Matsui does hit like he did in Japan, and Jose Reyes doesn’t regress, and Mike Cameron bounces back offensively, then the Mets might not be eliminated by September 1st. If things go as expected, reaching .500 will be a stretch.

Name               P    AVG   OBP   SPC    G   AB    R    H  2B  3B  HR  RBI   BB    K  SB  CS 
Floyd*             lf  .301  .394  .541  133  475   81  143  40   1  24   89   66   88   8   3 
Piazza             c   .272  .358  .539  114  397   54  108  29   1  25   79   51   68   0   2 
Phillips           1b  .298  .374  .462  127  439   50  131  27   0  15   67   45   47   0   1 
Diaz               2b  .308  .367  .441  132  487   76  150  25   2  12   65   41   84  15  10 
Cameron            cf  .261  .359  .449  152  548   81  143  35   4  20   79   77  151  20   9 
Matsui#            ss  .284  .349  .445  133  510   84  145  30   5  14   67   46  126  18   5 
Garcia*            rf  .281  .333  .493  128  477   66  134  22   2  25   83   32   98   1   6 
Vaughn*            1b  .241  .340  .450  132  473   57  114  27   0  24   78   61  150   1   1 
Wigginton          3b  .274  .341  .417  147  537   68  147  33   4  12   65   50  104   9   3 
Gonzalez           lf  .275  .359  .397  148  476   74  131  27   2   9   56   58   64   7   6 
Reyes#             ss  .291  .341  .393  123  488   89  142  15  10   5   43   34   67  37  12 
Perez*             cf  .292  .333  .414  136  415   47  121  24   3   7   48   24   35   8   8 
Redman             cf  .252  .329  .394  137  477   67  120  28   2  12   59   50  108  20   9 
Spencer            lf  .249  .328  .384  106  349   35   87  18   1   9   43   38   78   2   1 
Cedeno#            rf  .273  .330  .373  146  509   70  139  22   4   7   51   41   86  24  10 
Valent*            rf  .237  .319  .383  148  520   64  123  36   2  12   61   58  109   0   1 
Garcia             2b  .261  .320  .377  147  525   67  137  31   3   8   56   39   87   8   4 
Duncan*            cf  .253  .342  .339  123  384   54   97  10   4   5   34   48  101  17  10 
Zeile              3b  .229  .307  .359  126  410   45   94  21   1  10   47   43   84   1   0 
Wilson             c   .244  .294  .370   93  254   25   62  11   0   7   31   13   50   0   2 
Brazell*           1b  .246  .277  .385  130  525   51  129  23   1  16   67   18  105   2   2 
McEwing            2b  .242  .310  .330  116  264   30   64  12   1   3   25   21   55   3   3 
Snead#             cf  .216  .284  .275  132  472   60  102  14   4   2   31   41   94  39  17 

Name                  ERA   W   L   G  GS     INN    H   ER  HR   BB    K 
Bevis                3.39   4   4  48   0    69.0   53   26   4   30   79 
Bell                 3.72   3   3  43   0    58.0   54   24   7   14   55 
Roberts              3.74   3   3  38   3    65.0   61   27   4   21   50 
Ring*                3.93   3   4  54   0    55.0   44   24   2   30   57 
Stanton*             4.04   5   5  69   0    69.0   63   31   4   29   56 
Feliciano*           4.07   3   4  51   0    73.0   71   33   7   21   55 
Strickland           4.09   5   5  64   0    66.0   55   30   6   32   70 
Seo                  4.10   9  10  31  29   169.0  175   77  17   37  104 
Looper               4.22   4   4  75   0    79.0   79   37   6   29   53 
Weathers             4.23   4   4  76   0    83.0   77   39   6   37   69 
Griffiths            4.26   7   8  28  25   150.0  152   71  14   48   99 
Anderson             4.29   3   3  31   2    42.0   39   20   4   16   35 
Yates                4.34   3   5  31   6    56.0   53   27   5   24   45 
Heilman              4.38   7   9  29  27   154.0  150   75  15   61  117 
Leiter*              4.50  10  14  31  31   190.0  186   95  19   77  143 
Roach                4.53   6   9  29  24   135.0  143   68  14   40   79 
Trachsel             4.74   9  15  31  31   184.0  194   97  23   62  117 
Wheeler              4.85   4   8  39  15   117.0  125   63  18   35   81 
Baldwin              4.94   7   9  28  22   142.0  154   78  20   47   82 
Strange              5.01   5  10  33  20   142.0  151   79  16   59   87 
Glavine*             5.12   8  17  34  34   202.0  221  115  21   84   98 
Sedlacek             5.15   8  10  30  24   152.0  169   87  25   46   89 
Franco*              5.25   2   5  53   0    48.0   49   28   7   22   36 
Bottalico            5.40   0   1  53   0    50.0   52   30   9   21   40 
Erickson             5.54   6  10  25  24   143.0  163   88  18   62   64 
Hill                 5.87   2   7  54   0    69.0   60   45   7   62   70