Cleveland Indians

All change!

The Cleveland Indians, after being the best team in the AL Central since the division’s first year, fell to third place in 2002. The Indians front office, in some way, chose to do this, as the team that won the AL Central in 2001 was one of the oldest in baseball. The Indians thought the team it had could win no more, and either traded or did not sign older players like Roberto Alomar and Juan Gonzalez. During 2002, the Indians traded pitcher Bartolo Colon to Montreal and after the season, they let first baseman Jim Thome go as a free agent.

The Indians now have a good core of young players such as Brandon Phillips, Milton Bradley, Victor Martinez and C.C. Sabathia. However, the Indians also have a group of older players playing in key roles, mostly due to contract reasons. If the young guys come along faster than one would think they would and push the old guys aside, the Indians could win the AL Central. This is not so much because the Indians would be very good, but because neither of the two teams we think can win, Chicago and Minnesota, would not be very good.

What I think is the most likely way 2003 will happen for the Indians is the team will play poorly early in the year. It will be trying out young players, and some of them may not be as good as the Indians are hoping they will be. This is a team that lacks the top slugger and the pitching ace it had a year ago, so it will need some time to find players to fill their spots. In June, July and August, the Indians will play well, winning more games than they lose. Some young player, I think it will be Milton Bradley if he stays healthy and out of trouble, could play like a superstar in this time and carry the team.

The Indians do not look like they are trying to rush the young players. As the great Indians team of the 1990s took a few years to come together, the Indians’s front office is willing to wait and reap the rewards of patience. Having said that, there are a few men who may well not contribute anything, like Brian Anderson and Mark Wohlers. A good test for new manager Eric Wedge is how long he keeps playing these men who are not playing well. If he asks Brian Anderson to pitch every fifth day with a 5.43 ERA in August, the Indians will win with a different manager.

(For each player, I have listed his position, his batting/pitching hand, his age as of 1 July 2003, and his name.)

Lineup

The Indians lineup is a bunch of young guys and a bunch of old guys who are hurt often. Gutierrez, Lawton, Bradley and Burks could well have a full year on the DL all together.

c/s/25 Josh Bard

He hit .297 for Buffalo last year, but his walk rate became worse than it was in 2001. He can hit some, but Victor Martinez will push him aside.

1b/l/26 Travis Hafner (traded from Rangers for Einar Diaz)

He pounded the hell out of the ball in Oklahoma last year. He has come to the majors late, but is definitely a hitter. Big SOB. His wrist was hurt in 2001, and his 2002 year is a better picture of his skill. I think his lack of speed and fielding skill will hurt him before his career becomes too long, but he can hit now. He has moved up slowly in the minors, but has hit always, save his first year in Class A, Savannah 1998. This leads me to wonder if he has pissed someone off, somewhere. He will not outhit Jim Thome this year, and may never do so, but will be a good hitter.

2b/r/22 Brandon Phillips

A former Expo, Phillips came to Cleveland in the Bartolo Colon trade. He played shortstop in the minors. The Indians still think Omar Vizquel is a great shortstop, so Phillips is playing second base. Since Vizquel is no longer a great shortstop, the Indians are hurting Phillips' career. He’s error-prone, but the scouts like his range. He has lost walks as he has aged, and his numbers are only ok outside of AA. He can play, but is unlikely to become a star.

3b/r/29 Casey Blake

In a surprise spring move, he now looks to be the starter. He can outplay John McDonald, which means nothing. He has hit over .300 at AAA the last two years but he played in Edmonton, where everyone hits .300. Blake is no longer of prospect age and is unlike to become any better. Third base will be a soft spot for the Indians in 2003, as they have many men for the job, and none of them can play.

ss/s/36 Omar Vizquel

Former Gold Glover, has lost a ton of range in the last few years. Lifted weights before the 2002 season. Fast start, faded badly: .216/.275/.273 in August and September. He thinks he is still a great shortstop, an idea that’s past its time, and spoke out after he did not win the Gold Glove last year. Vizquel is a middle-age man who does not understand that he has lost a great deal of the skills he once possessed. He will stay through 2004 and will depart not a minute to soon.

lf/l/31 Matt Lawton

Lawton hurt his shoulder diving for a ball on April 19 and had surgery on September 17 for a torn labrum and rotator cuff. The doctor said shoulder was so damaged that it would have hurt Lawton to run. Nickname is "Law," which has always struck me as bland. I hear his teammates call him "Law" in interviews, and it’s enough to make you even want Chris Berman to make a better nickname. Matt "I fought the" Lawton?

cf/s/23 Milton Bradley

Bradley spent time on the DL from May 2 to June 4 with broken orbital bone around his left eye. Then, he was on the DL again from August 12 to 30 when he had an emergency appendectomy. To top this off, he missed seven of the last eight games of the year with a strained muscle in his left side. He should walk more this year, as he walked often in the minors. He has had some trouble in the game of life, and his rap sheet is long:

• Thrown out of the Maryland Fall League in 1998 for a run-in with an umpire.

• Suspended for 7 games in April 1999 after spitting gum at an umpire.

• Rushed to the emergency room for being "severely intoxicated" in April 2002 after making a ruckus in a restaurant and refusing to leave.

He has skills and makes me think of a switch-hitting Lenny Dykstra with a touch of Carl Everett. The Indians are waiting for the skill to come out from the sea of pain and bad behavior. Come on you raver, you seer of visions. Come on you painter, you piper, you prisoner, and shine!

rf/l/27 Karim Garcia (re-signed)

The Indians released him during spring training in 2002. The Yankees released him in July, and the Indians resigned him. He hits lefties unusually well for a left-handed hitter. He is 27 and has a job, so he may have a big year.

dh/r/38 Ellis Burks

He has bad knees and to top that off, he had surgery on his left shoulder in November. I never thought he would last this long when he came up with Boston in 1987, but he has become a guy like John Kruk, a guy who knows how to hit, and no matter what the rest of his skills are not, he can hit. His middle name is Rena; I always thought that was a girl's name.

Rotation

One thing I see is that the Indians have many good young arms and will send Jason Bere and Brian Anderson to the mound every fifth day. I would not want to rush these guys either, but Brian Anderson?

sp/l/22 CC Sabathia

"Pick up that guitar and talk to me." Terry Mulholland worked with him on holding runners; Terry Mulholland is the master of holding runners. He’s a big fat slob, but he was in better shape late in the year. Watch the scale with him.

sp/r/32 Jason Bere (free agent, Cubs)

He had a BABIP of .314 last year and a SO/Win ratio of 65/1, so he'll pitch better. He’s a flyballer, and lefties kill him. He pitches poorly in the stretch, so he cannot relieve, but he only throws 86 pitches a start. I would rather be in his shoes than in my shoes, making all the bucks, but I'd rather be in Roger Clemens's shoes, or Curt Schilling's shoes than in his. He had a groin strain in the second half of 2002.

sp/l/32 Brian Anderson (free agent, Diamondbacks)

Brenly dropped him from the Arizona rotation after his April 13 start. Anderson stayed in bullpen until early May, when Brenly put him back in the rotation when Todd Stottlemyre was hurt. A line drive broke his foot on September 21. Going 6-11 with Arizona is not good. Aaron Gleeman thinks he has had a good career for someone who does not strike out many men, which I think is like Vladimir Putin being a pretty nice man for someone who is killing Chechens.

sp/r/25 Ricardo Rodiguez

He came from the Dodgers. Scouts say he has bad mechanics, but I have yet to see him pitch, and even were I to do so, all I know about major league pitching is that I cannot hit it. He does not strike out as many men as Cliff Lee, but he does not give up as many home runs as Lee does either.

sp/r/24 Cliff Lee

He had a strained oblique, whatever the hell that is. Came from the Expos in the Colon deal. He has struck out men everywhere he has pitched, and has given up home runs in some of the nicest places.

Bench

of/l/24 Alex Escobar

He missed all of 2002 with a hurt knee. He came to the Indians in the Alomar trade, and thus has never played an inning for them. When healthy, he is a strikeout king with speed and some power. I do not think he will have a high batting average in the major leagues.

of/r/31 Shane Spencer (former Yankee)

He sprained his wrist in June, and pulled his hamstring in August. He’s useful as a platoon player only since he cannot hit right-handed pitchers.

if/r/33 Ricky Gutierrez

He is a natural shortstop but played second base in 2002. He hurt his neck in April but waited until August to tell the Indians. That does not strike me as the best way to make your team go out of its way for you. He hits well for a backup infielder when healthy, but he’s usually stretched for a regular, unless it’s as a shortstop.

if/r/28 John McDonald

He is five days older than I am. Scouts think he is a good fielder. I would hope he is, since he hit .244 in AAA last year with no power or walks. If he is a fielding wizard, he can be the new Rafael Belliard.

if/l/33 Bill Selby

Has spent most of the last seven years in AAA, but has also played some in AA, the big leagues and Japan. He has hit for some power in the high minors, so he could be a short-term answer to Indians’ third base question. He would be a better backup. His career .235/.291/.383 numbers are about how good he is.

of/l/26 Ben Broussard (midseason trade for Russ Branyan, from Cincinnati)

Swapped for Russ Branyan. Like Branyan, he has power and strikeouts. He also walked often in the minors, so he could become the new Rob Deer.

c/s/24 Victor Martinez

Hit well last year but doesn’t possess much of an arm behind the plate. In spite of what folks think, there are two key skills for catchers, being able to catch, and throwing out base stealers. Scouts like Martinez's other fielding skills, but they pale next to throwing out base stealers. However, if you can catch and you can hit, you can be Jorge Posada. He was the MVP of the Eastern League last year, and the MVP of the Carolina League in 2001. He should be the Opening Day starter but the Indians have it made it clear that Josh Bard is the overwhelming favorite for that honor.

c/s/29 AJ Hinch (free agent, from Kansas City)

Career 28% thrower. He will eventually lose playing time to Victor Martinez. He hurt his hand last July, but played through it.

of/s/23 Coco Crisp

Do you remember the old Eddie Murphy routine, where he names his relatives after cereals? Anyhow, Crisp came to the majors last year with 100 games above Class A. I’d say he needs more seasoning, but even I put no seasoning on cereal.

Bullpen

I do not see a LOOGY. LOOGYs are worthless, but I think the Indians will see the lack of a LOOGY as a flaw. If the Indians waste one of their young players on the LOOGY beast, it does not bode well for the future.

cl/r/25 Danys Baez

Baez began the year as a starter, became a closer on August 27. In his career, he has gone .222/.307/.371 against right-handed batters, .262/.358/.389 against left-handed batters.

rp/r/33 Mark Wohlers

He has a sore right elbow as of 9 March 2003. His career K/9 is 9.0, but was 5.8 in 2002. Forgive me for saying so, but I think the Indians are mad for making him the setup man. I look at him, and I hear Johnny Rotten singing, "Noooooo future .... nooooo future ..... noooooo future for youuuuuuuuu."

rp/r/26 David Riske

He had back and hamstring injuries in mid-summer last year. He’s a flyballer with control flaws and a BABIP of .328 in 2002. His numbers look bad, but I like pitchers who strike out 11 men a game. I think he'll become the setup man around midyear.

rp/l/40 Terry Mulholland

Came from the Dodgers in midyear. King of holding runners, but otherwise, I do not understand why he has a job. I know a farmer who looks after the farm. With water clear, he cares for all his harvest. I know a fireman who looks after the fire …

rp/r/36 Dave Burba

He had a one-year stint with Texas, but is now an Indian again. The Rangers let him go, and came back to the Indians on August 7. His strikeout rate has fallen and he gives up many home runs. I think he's pitching here because the Indians rotation is shallow, and I think he will enter the rotation when Anderson pitches himself out of it. I understand why you do not want to rush young pitchers, but having both Burba and Anderson around does not strike me as good. I do have a hunch he will come back some this year, for which I have nothing with which to back it up.

Young guys

There are more young players in the system, but these two men are close to the majors and do not yet have jobs.

sp/l/25 Brian Tallet

He has a short time in professional ball, three years. His strikeout rate was 6 a game in 2002, much lower than his rate in the low minors, and his walk numbers are but mean. I would not bet on a man whose strikeout rate fell as he rose in the minors, were I a betting man.

sp/r/23 Jason Davis

He has a live fastball, and will pitch at AAA. For all the praise, he has struck out only 6.5 men a game throughout his minor league career.

Manager

Eric Wedge

I do not know what kind of manager Wedge will be, and nor do you. I shall not guess as to how good a manager he will be, and a manager is much less important than the players. Wedge is from the planet Corellia and he is a friend of Admiral Ackbar. Thus, this article is a trap.

2003 ZiPS Projections - Click for info

PO Player       G  AB  R   H 2B 3B HR RBI BB  SO SB CS   BA  OBP  SLG
C  Bard       110 401 44 108 29  1  8  57 25  56  0  0 .269 .312 .406
1B Hafner     118 404 70 119 24  1 20  68 66  92  1  2 .295 .394 .507
2B Phillips   139 521 84 141 39  2 17  58 34  84 13  6 .271 .315 .451
3B Gutierrez  116 421 62 120 18  1  9  54 36  55  3  2 .285 .341 .397
SS Vizquel    144 561 83 152 27  5  8  61 61  71 17  9 .271 .342 .380
LF Lawton     131 481 78 128 30  2 14  63 73  58 18  8 .266 .363 .424
CF Bradley    124 430 60 106 24  3  9  42 48  90 12  7 .247 .322 .379
RF Garcia     141 516 77 144 24  3 32  89 37 111  2  5 .279 .327 .523
DH Burks      124 446 82 135 25  1 27  83 48  98  3  2 .303 .370 .545
c  Martinez   127 436 69 131 34  0 16  63 43  64  2  2 .300 .363 .489
1b Broussard  133 439 75 113 28  1 21  63 58 108  4  2 .257 .344 .469
if McDonald   103 323 42  77 15  2  2  23 20  59  6  4 .238 .283 .316
of Crisp      136 517 72 143 23  3 10  45 42  74 24 13 .277 .331 .391
of Spencer     83 269 34  68 14  2  7  37 25  60  1  2 .253 .316 .398

PO Player       W  L  ERA  G GS  IP   H ER HR BB  SO
SP Sabathia    12 11 4.13 33 33 194 174 89 16 84 171
SP Anderson     6 10 5.32 32 26 164 195 97 32 32  79
SP Bere         8 11 5.08 28 28 156 155 88 26 66 132
SP Lee          5  8 4.93 21 20 104  95 57 20 44 111
SP Rodriguez    8 11 4.86 25 25 148 153 80 20 54 100
SP Tallet       8  9 4.50 28 26 150 148 75 19 51 115
RP Riske        2  2 3.68 58  0  66  49 27  6 33  84
RP Wohlers      3  3 4.36 57  0  64  63 31  6 25  47
RP Mulholland   3  7 6.19 45 11 112 144 77 24 33  46
RP Burba        9  8 4.58 33 26 165 162 84 17 69 127
CL Baez         9  8 4.06 44 19 142 125 64 11 63 129
ZiPS is not a playing time predictor and should not be added for team totals.