Cincinnati Reds Preview

2005 marks the ten-year anniversary of the last time the Reds made it to the playoffs, as long as you don't count their one-game clash with the Mets in 1999 (and I'd prefer to forget it). It's easy to forget now, but the Reds were big spenders in the early '90s. Sure, they scrimped in some areas, like when former owner Marge Schott cancelled their SportsTicker service that provided out of town scores on the old Riverfront electronic scoreboard. That only saved $350 a month, but as Marge explained it, she didn't know why Cincinnati fans cared about scores from games they weren't watching in person. As embarrassing as that might have been, Cincinnati fans could take comfort in the fact that Schott was willing to pony up when it came to player salaries. Until the 1998 pre season fire sale that saw the Reds trade their Opening Day starter the day before Opening Day, the Reds payroll allowed them to compete. Cincinnati was a small market, but they had a medium-large market mentality. From time to time, the Reds managed to be competitive and had a decent margin for error since they were willing to spend. In the late 90s, that margin disappeared as payroll stagnated while the rest of the league went into a spending frenzy. What looked like a brilliant move in trading for Ken Griffey Jr. when he caught the injury bug, turning his contract into an albatross. Here is a table of what percentage Griffey's yearly salary represented of the total Reds payroll:

Obviously, it's very difficult to win anything when you're spending more than a fifth of your payroll on a player who's frequently injured. But the Reds compounded the situation by giving hometown hero Barry Larkin a 3-year, $27 million deal that began in 2001:

It doesn’t matter how brilliantly run your team is if nearly half of your payroll is tied up in two ineffective players, and the Reds were anything but brilliant with Jim Bowden at the helm.

Bad contracts eventually end however, and the Reds found themselves with money to spend this past offseason. Old man Lindner (who does a damn good Montgomery Burns impression – just ask him) decided to loosen his purse strings, and Dan O'Brien went shopping, netting Eric Milton, Ramon Ortiz, Ben Weber, Kent Mercker, Rich Aurilia, and Joe Randa. Quite a breathtaking set of names, eh?

Most Reds fans expected 2005 to be something of a rebuilding year, but it's clear that the front office is determined to give it a go right away. It's unlikely that the Reds will be able to compete, but with the exception of the Milton signing, they haven't hamstrung themselves with bad contracts. It's important to convey to the local populace that an effort is being made and these signings should allow the Reds to make a show of competing while focusing on developing talent. While the Reds don’t have a terribly deep farm system, there is help on the way from players such as Richie Gardner, Edwin Encarnacion, Todd Coffey, Joey Votto, and Thomas Pauly. Cincinnati is counting on significant contributions from a few of those prospects in the next two to three years, but Dan O’Brien obviously has a desire, no matter how poorly executed, to try to put a watchable product on the field for now. It’s hard to fault him for that when you consider how tortured the city of Cincinnati has been by professional sports for the past fifteen years.

Catcher: Jason LaRue

LaRue is one of those guys that can pretty comfortably be called useful. Jason's improved every year since 2001, and has seen his OPS reach a 2004 height of .765. LaRue doesn't have a great eye at the plate, but he makes up for it with his unique skill of getting hit by pitches (20 HBP in 2003, and a team record 24 HBP in 2004). He’s also got a little power, and is a good bet for fifteen or so home runs a year.

LaRue gets a bad rap defensively because he’s got something of a passed ball problem, and his one defensive strength, shutting down the opposition’s running game, has also dwindled. Jason had a monster year in 2001, throwing out 61% of the 69 runners who tried to steal on him. 2002 was very solid as well, and saw him gun down 45% of the 62 steal attempts against him. He reverted in 2003 and 2004, throwing out 27% and 30% respectively.

Jason turns 31 before Opening Day, an age when catchers start to decline. The Reds smartly have given him a series of one-year deals, and shouldn’t be hurt too badly when his downswing begins in earnest.

First Base: Sean Casey

Casey provides the Reds with an interesting dilemma. How much of a premium, if any, should a team pay for charisma? Sean is universally loved in Cincinnati, so much so that he’s been christened with the nickname “The Mayor”. While Ken Griffey Jr. would seem like the natural selection to succeed Barry Larkin as the face of the Reds, it’s actually Sean Casey who will probably assume the role.

2004 saw a resurgence for Casey, as he shrugged off two mediocre seasons brought about by a shoulder injury that he suffered in 2002. He put up numbers comparable to his 1999 season, which had previously been his career year. Many analysts seem to consider 2004 a flukish performance for Casey, but as long as he remains healthy he should be a good bet to continue putting up solid numbers. Trading Sean is one of the more intriguing options to solve the outfield roster crunch (and would probably result in Adam Dunn moving to first for now), but the PR hit would be difficult to take for a franchise that hasn’t done a very good marketing job in recent years. Casey is signed through 2006, and it’ll be interesting to watch what the Reds do with Sean in the coming years, and should reveal a lot about the team. Casey’s an expensive player at a talent rich position – someone the Reds could probably do without.

Second Base: D’Angelo Jimenez

Hands down the best athlete to have come back from a broken neck. I think. Anyway.

It’s odd how little respect Jimenez gets from Cincinnati fans. Most of the local rags seemed to be campaigning for the Reds to non-tender Jimenez, and quite a few Reds fans agreed. The reason? Ryan Freel, who’s managed to convince most of the local populace that he’s the second coming of Pete Rose.

Jimenez is a superior player however, with quite a bit more upside to boot. Many thought that D’Angelo would have a break out year in 2004, but he ended up putting up numbers remarkably similar to his 2003 season – with just a bit more OBP and a slightly lower slugging percentage. I’m not sure that breakout season is ever going to come, but Jimenez as is really isn’t that bad. At a position that is a weakness for many teams the Reds could do a lot worse. Ryan Freel every day would qualify.

SS: Felipe Lopez/Rich Aurilia:

Wow, does it ever pain me to have to write Rich freaking Aurilia as a possible starting shortstop for the Cincinnati Reds. Since 1970 the Reds have had 2 starting shortstops, Dave Concepcion and Barry Larkin. Two. In 35 years. And now we might be settling for Rich “still cashing in on 2001” Aurilia.

There is hope that the Reds will make an intelligent move here and go with Felipe Lopez. I’m not sure he’s capable of manning the position for the next 17-18 years, but he’s got upside. Lopez’s numbers from 2004 weren’t all that impressive, but he finished the year fairly strong (88 AB in August: .284/.379/.500; 105 AB in September: .257/.328/.419). He has some pop in his bat, but he’s sometimes frustrating to watch in the field. Felipe has been in the major leagues since 2001 and is still only 24 years old, so there’s still a pretty good chance that he’ll put it together one of these days. The only question is how patient the Reds are prepared to be with him.

Rich Aurilia’s OBP the past three seasons: 2002: .305; 2003: .325; 2004: .314.

That’s with no power. So naturally he’ll probably win the Opening Day job for the Reds. He’s a “proven veteran” who “makes contact” and can be counted on to hit the occasional sac fly. I’m not bitter though.

Third Base: Joe Randa

Randa was signed to keep third base warm for Edwin Encarnacion who should be arriving in September of this year, hopefully for good. He’s a one year rental, something Reds fans don’t see too often (not when it comes to half way desirable players at least), and he should do a somewhat decent job. The biggest upside to this signing is that Austin Kearns gets to play rightfield instead of third, ending one of the more ridiculous things the franchise has thought of in recent years. The Aaron Boone to second thing I could kind of see … but Austin to third was just silly.

Joe’s 35 so you never know if this is the year the collapse comes, but if he can put up the kind of numbers he’s put up the last three seasons then he’ll be an asset.

Left Field: Adam Dunn

The Reds really ought to be thinking about signing this guy to a long term deal at this point, but the conservative Dan O’Brien consistently says that nothing’s imminent. It’ll be a shame if Dunn ends up an Astro in a few years because Cincinnati was too gun shy to pull the trigger and get a deal done.

You all know about the strikeout record, but how many of you know that Dunn failed to hit a sacrifice fly last season? If you read the Cincinnati Enquirer or the Dayton Daily News then I’m not telling you anything new, since they bring it up pretty often, just for giggles. It’s not surprising since focusing on the negative has been a recurring theme throughout Dunn’s major league career thus far. Some people would rather look at the fact that Dunn struck out 195 times last year than at his 46 home runs or his 108 walks. If Adam Dunn continues to put up the numbers he put up in 2004 then I’ll be thrilled. But Hal McCoy, John Fay, and Marty Brennamen will keep complaining about the strikeouts.

Center Field: Ken Griffey Jr.

What hasn’t been said about this situation? Even when Griffey does well, like in the first half of 2004, it’s tainted by the knowledge that it can – and probably will – end at any moment. Sometimes you just can’t go home, and this has apparently been one of those times. Everyone involved, Reds fans, Reds ownership, Griffey himself, deserved better than this. If a miracle occurs and Griffey plays another full season, be it in 2005 or in the future, then I think he should seriously consider retiring at the end of it. And hopefully he’ll go into the Hall as a Red, because Cincinnati fans deserve some sort of payoff here.

Right Field: Austin “Ears” Kearns

Eventually he’s going to have a healthy season, and it’s going to be a monster. None of his injuries this far have been chronic so at some point Austin’s luck will turn. It’s not surprising that many are starting to sour on Kearns, but I remember the first two months of 2003:

April 2003: 89 AB, .303/.431/.640 May 2003: 101 AB, .287/.368/.455

Unfortunately Ray King sat on his shoulder towards the end of May, and it’s pretty much been down hill since. Well there was that Cubs game last fall. But yeah, mostly downhill.

That should change this season, and people will start asking who’s the better Reds outfielder, Dunn or Kearns?

Bench:

Javier Valentin is the backup catcher for the Reds. He showed some pop in the minor leagues, but has been pretty abysmal since his arrival in the bigs in 1998. He finished pretty strong last year after a horrendously slow start, so it’s possible I’m underrating him.

Ryan Freel plays third, second, first, and all three outfield positions. He’s gritty and steals lots of bases. Naturally, Reds fans love the guy, but I’ll be shocked if he ever again equals his 2004 numbers. He’s not a bad guy to have around by any means, but he’s much more valuable off the bench than in a starting role. Kudos to the Reds for realizing that.

Wily Mo Pena is one of the most intriguing players in baseball. It’s not very often that someone as unseasoned as Pena plays in the major leagues, but he’s not only managed to stick around, he’s thrived. It wouldn’t surprise me if his numbers fell a bit this year, but it also wouldn’t surprise me if he continues to show improvement. Going into the season Wily Mo is probably the Red most likely to be traded at some point in 2005.

Rob Stratton is a guy I wouldn’t have mentioned just a couple of weeks ago, but recent events have kind of demanded his inclusion. The Reds picked him up towards the end of 2004, and he tore up AAA Louisville, putting up a .353/.392/.773 line in 119 at bats. Stratton is 27 years old, and he lost prospect status quite a while ago, but he might be a fairly useful bench player. He’s raking in Spring Training, and he’s a good bet to spend some time in a Reds uniform at some point this season. If one of the big 4 gets injured or traded then Stratton would probably be next in line for the fourth outfielder position.

Starting Pitching:

Eric Milton

The biggest Reds free agent signing since Dave Parker. No, seriously.

Milton is a thoroughly mediocre pitcher, which is unfortunately an upgrade for the Reds.

Here is some of what Milton will be replacing this season:

Cory Lidle: 149 IP, 5.32 ERA Todd Van Poppel: 115.1 IP, 6.09 ERA Jose Acevedo: 157.2 IP, 5.94 ERA

So yeah, I’ll be okay if he manages a 4.75 ERA in 201 innings like he did in 2004. The Reds certainly paid too much, but they went after Matt Clement unsuccessfully, and it looks like Dan O’Brien was determined to sign someone to upgrade the staff. The question is whether or not the Reds should have simply foregone signing Milton after failing to get Clement. Maybe tossed it at Adam Dunn for a long-term deal instead.

Might have been smart.

But Milton’s an upgrade, and he probably won’t decline too much since he’ll be 29-32 over the life of his contract. It’s not a great signing, but it should make the Reds a better team in 2005 than they were in 2004. And if payroll continues to nudge upward than it really shouldn’t be as harmful a signing as it’s been made out to be.

Ramon Ortiz

Ortiz is coming off a couple of bad seasons in Anaheim, so it’s a bit puzzling that the Reds would trade one of their better prospects for him. Many said that it was an odd move since Ramon was probably going to be non-tendered, but Dan O’Brien has been quoted as saying that other teams were in the running for Ortiz’s services, and that if they hadn’t offered up Dustin Moseley then they wouldn’t have acquired Ortiz. Whether he’s just trying to save face or actually telling the truth I have no idea of course. Giving up Moseley really wasn’t a huge price to pay however. Saying that he was one of the Reds top prospects is really more an indictment of the Cincinnati system than praise for Dustin. Ortiz, like Milton, will be eating up a lot of innings that went to guys who put up ERAs over 5.50 in 2003, so he has to be looked at as another upgrade, and at a much more reasonable price. It’s always possible that a change of scenery will be good for him as well.

Paul Wilson

Four straight years with an ERA+ of 92. It’s really kind of bizarre to look at. Wilson’s not a bad back of the rotation pitcher, but in Cincinnati he’s been forced to the front. He’s always going to be something of an injury risk, but the Reds have confidence in the guy, and rewarded his 2004 season with a two year, $8.2 million contract.

Aaron Harang

You expect a guy who’s 6’7 to throw harder, but not Harang. It makes you wonder how much of a shot he’d be getting if he were 5’9 with the same skill set.

Aaron had a pretty bad season in 2004 (this is a recurring theme when it comes to Reds pitchers), but he had an 11 game stretch in July and August that indicated he might be turning a corner:

July: 30.2 IP, 3.52 ERA, 25K/11BB August: 38 IP, 3.55 ERA, 31K, 10BB

He then proceeded to get hammered in September, so it’s tough to be too optimistic. If Harang doesn’t improve this season then I think the Reds will cut bait. He’ll be 27 in May and the Reds have to be getting sick of not seeing more from him.

Brandon Claussen

The fifth spot in the rotation is up in the air, but with Luke Hudson’s recent injury Brandon Claussen moves to the forefront. Claussen was a Yankees prospect, with all the requisite Yankees prospect hype when the Reds acquired him in the Aaron Boone deal. Since coming to Cincinnati he’s been pretty disappointing, but it’s worth pointing out that Brandon came back pretty quickly from his 2002 Tommy John surgery. He needs to cut down on his walks, but his strikeout rate was pretty healthy at AAA Louisville last season (9.96K/9IP). A healthy, emerging Claussen would go a long way towards making the Reds competitive again.

Bullpen:

The Reds bullpen has generally been a source of strength over the years. That came to an end in 2004. Here are some of the performances the Reds received from their bullpen last year:

Brian Reith:

26 IP, 7.27 ERA

Mike Mathews:

30 IP, 6.30 ERA

Gabe White:

39 IP, 6.23 ERA

That’s ugly. Dan O’Brien recognized that and picked up a few relievers this offseason in Ben Weber, Kent Mercker, and David Weathers. They join Ryan Wagner, Josh Hancock, and Jose Acevedo in a bullpen that should be improved, but still pretty mediocre.

Weber comes over from the Angels and had carpel tunnel syndrome last year. Before that he was a great reliever, with ERAs under 3.00 in 2002 and 2003. He wears goggles (a la Chris Sabo) and has a kooky delivery, so it wouldn’t surprise me if he quickly becomes a fan favorite.

David Weathers is on his second go round with the Reds (he played half a season in Cincinnati back in ’98). He’s been an above average pitcher (using ERA+) for the past five seasons, although barely so last year. He’s 35 so I would have been a little wary, but O’Brien seems to like veterans. Weathers is the kind of guy that’s great to flip at the trade deadline if things aren’t going too well, so if worse comes to worse he might net the Reds a prospect come July.

Kent Mercker is making his third appearance in Cincinnati. While he’s had a great couple of years, Mercker is a somewhat risky pickup as well, especially since the Reds saw fit to give him a two year deal. As the token left hander he’s a much better bet than Phil Norton however.

Ryan Wagner struggled mightily last season, after everyone had proclaimed him the Reds future closer. He supposedly has a great work ethic, and he lost some weight in the offseason. The drafting relievers in the first round thing never made much since to me, especially for a club like the Reds who need impact players from the draft. I think it might be a decent idea for a team like the Yankees, but small market teams … not so much.

Josh Hancock put up a 4.45 ERA for the Reds last season in 54.2 IP, despite walking 25 batters and only striking out 31. He also allowed 60 hits in those innings, so it’s pretty clear that he was rather lucky to come out relatively unscathed. Hancock will probably be a long reliever and spot starter this season, but at his age he’s got little upside. The Reds could probably do better.

Jose Acevedo may have found his niche in the bullpen:

Bullpen:

17 IP, 0.00 ERA

Small sample size sure, but it’s possible that Acevedo might just have an easier time going an inning or two. He’s supposedly always had solid stuff, but he’s never been able to put it together as a starter. 2005 is probably his last chance.

Closer

Danny Graves

Graves set the team record for Saves in 2004 with 41, proving once and for that saves are absolutely worthless as a useful stat. Danny probably wouldn’t be a terrible guy to have in the pen, but he’s horribly miscast as a closer for a myriad of reasons; he doesn’t strike anyone out, he’s extremely hittable, and he gives up a ton of home runs. His contract is up after 2005, and this will probably be his last year in Cincinnati since the Reds have Todd Coffey and Ryan Wagner both as closers in waiting. In fact, I wouldn’t be surprised to see the Reds try to move Graves at the deadline if they’re out of contention. Or I might be giving the Reds and Dan O’Brien too much credit, and they’ll resign Danny to a shiny new contract after he saves 45 games this season. We’ll see.

J.D. Arney owns and operates Red Reporter. Check out his most recent interview, with relief prospect Todd Coffey, who ZiPS has a platonic man-crush on.

2005 ZiPS Projections

Name          ERA   W   L   G  GS     INN    H   ER   BB    K  HR 
Coffey       3.49   4   3  52   0    67.0   62   26   18   58   5 
Weber        4.24   3   3  55   0    68.0   73   32   21   39   5 
Wagner       4.28   2   3  54   0    61.0   52   29   32   63   5 
Rose         4.29   8   8  24  22   126.0  133   60   29   88  16 
Harang       4.38  10  10  29  28   154.0  156   75   52  122  19 
Belisle      4.61   8  10  30  28   166.0  178   85   55  113  21 
Weathers     4.72   4   6  71   1    82.0   82   43   39   68   9 
Hudson       4.72   9  11  30  24   141.0  134   74   66  128  18 
Ramirez      4.75   8  10  28  23   146.0  163   77   43   78  18 
Bong*        4.78   7   9  29  16   111.0  115   59   45   83  14 
Ortiz        4.81   9  13  32  26   174.0  189   93   57  119  25 
Milton*      4.82   8  12  31  31   185.0  199   99   54  146  31 
Hall         4.93   6   9  31  30   179.0  183   98   88  129  19 
Wilson       4.95   7  11  29  29   182.0  201  100   61  108  26 
Hancock      4.95   7  10  31  27   160.0  172   88   55  111  24 
Claussen*    4.98   7  11  23  23   130.0  132   72   68   94  13 
Acevedo      4.99   8  12  44  24   166.0  178   92   50  121  29 
Keisler*     5.00   5   9  23  20   117.0  122   65   49   75  16 
Graves       5.04   5   7  49  14   125.0  149   70   30   54  19 
Mercker*     5.04   1   2  67   0    50.0   46   28   29   47   6 
Stone        5.07   3   4  62   0    71.0   75   40   27   51  11 
Valentine    5.21   5   7  53   5    76.0   69   44   50   76  10 
Fernandez    5.30   7  11  32  25   168.0  198   99   55   75  26 
Robertson*   5.38   8  13  33  27   154.0  177   92   58   92  25 
Caraccioli   5.52   4   7  34  16   119.0  122   73   73   88  14 
Nelson       5.52   5   8  28  21   119.0  131   73   54   78  19 
Shacklefor   5.66   3   5  49   0    62.0   62   39   42   48   7 
Kozlowski*   5.83   3   6  16  13    71.0   75   46   45   43   8 

Name         P    AVG   OBP   SLG   G  AB   H 2B 3B HR   R RBI  BB   K SB CS 
Dunn*        lf  .263  .398  .546 155 544 143 26  1 42  99 106 118 175  8  4 
Casey*       1b  .307  .368  .472 144 557 171 34  2 18  83  85  50  44  2  0 
Jimenez#     2b  .269  .361  .398 147 558 150 26  5 12  73  64  81  89 11  7 
Zapp*        1b  .255  .324  .464 131 494 126 26  1 25  68  80  49 173  1  1 
Chapman      3b  .268  .332  .419 135 496 133 36  0 13  56  62  45  97  1  2 
Randa        3b  .271  .329  .408 133 495 134 31  2 11  60  61  40  70  1  1 
Kearns       rf  .285  .388  .473  98 347  99 16  2 15  57  58  56  84  5  3 
Freel        2b  .270  .353  .370 126 467 126 22  5  5  67  38  53  72 30 11 
Lopez#       ss  .249  .320  .378 140 503 125 23  3 12  72  57  50 139  7  5 
Smitherman   lf  .249  .320  .405 138 462 115 28  1 14  55  59  46 120  7  3 
Encarnacion  3b  .261  .327  .394 124 459 120 24  2 11  72  58  43  79 15  7 
Kelly        cf  .251  .312  .412 126 442 111 22  5 13  60  52  37 116 17  9 
Gutierrez    1b  .243  .290  .405 133 482 117 29  2 15  59  64  29  66  0  0 
Machado#     ss  .219  .330  .338 125 456 100 22  4  8  73  44  73 129 23 13 
LaRue        c   .244  .330  .412 116 386  94 24  1 13  46  53  30 109  1  3 
Pena         cf  .261  .317  .496 108 337  88 11  1 22  47  61  24 103  6  2 
Aurilia      ss  .244  .300  .355 128 467 114 23  1  9  53  52  36  81  1  1 
Swann*       lf  .243  .302  .374 117 412 100 22  1 10  49  46  32  81  4  4 
Griffey*     cf  .242  .346  .492  74 252  61 15  0 16  37  46  38  56  1  0 
Bergolla     2b  .246  .294  .311 123 476 117 18  2  3  73  34  29  66 38 17 
Olmedo#      2b  .251  .309  .318 117 399 100 14  2  3  48  31  32  70  5  5 
Valentin#    c   .253  .309  .423  90 293  74 18  1 10  33  40  23  60  0  0 
Stratton     lf  .200  .255  .455  88 310  62 11  1 22  41  52  21 132  3  3 
Romano       rf  .258  .296  .366  97 295  76 14  3  4  42  27  15  60  9  5 
Sardinha     c   .221  .255  .324  90 330  73 16  0  6  28  33  13  99  1  1 
Cruz*        lf  .246  .337  .386  84 171  42  9  0  5  26  26  20  44  1  0 
Estalella    c   .193  .287  .400  44 140  27  8  0  7  14  18  18  47  1  0 
Lopez        ss  .201  .233  .313  81 224  45 10  0  5  19  23   8  41  1  1