Cleveland Indians Preview

After flirting with first place in 2004, the Indians enter 2005 a deeper and more experienced team than any since their last playoff run in 2001. When Mark Shapiro began the rebuilding process in 2002, he identified 2005 as the year the Indians would return to contention for good. While it may be somewhat optimistic to call this team contenders, there is no doubt that they match up very well with their rivals in a weak division. The Indians, Twins, White Sox, and Tigers are all so even that it may simply come down to which team is able to avoid injuries to its most important players.

To that end, the theme to this offseason in Cleveland has been depth. The bullpen was the most obvious area of need, as it was among the worst in the major leagues in 2004. The relievers collectively posted an ERA of 4.88, worsted only by Detroit, Toronto, Cincinnati, and of course Colorado. And while the relievers' performance in the early going was horrific (leading local media to begin referring to them as the "hellpen" in print), the psychic toll their numerous blown saves took on the starters, especially CC Sabathia, was hard to ignore. Starters pushed themselves harder, thinking that if they did not finish the game out they were unlikely to get a win. And more often than not, especially before the worst offenders -- Jose Jimenez and Scott Stewart -- were released or replaced, the starters worst fears proved true. But the pen eventually righted itself, with Wickman returning from his Tommy John rehab and David Riske finding his fastball, and the improved, though still unreliable, pen was one major catalyst behind their run at first place through August. So given that the team's only bullpen acquisition was Arthur Rhodes (obtained in trade from the Pirates for Matt Lawton), how has this need for bullpen depth been addressed? Three ways: first, the team is counting on strong post-injury seasons from Bob Wickman, Bob Howry, and Scott Sauerbeck. Second, addition by subtraction: the team recognized those relievers whose performance was hurting the team (Jimenez and Stewart primarily, although Rick White and Jack Cressend were not brought back) and their innings will be given to guys who got the job done, notably Rafael Betancourt and Matt Miller. And finally, they have a wealth of young pitchers ready to step in in case of injury or ineffectiveness: Jason Davis, Kaz Tadano, Fernando Cabrera, Jeremy Guthrie, Brian Tallet, and a few others. Will all or even most of these guys be above average major league relievers? No. But because of their depth, the Indians simply have to find those four or five guys that are healthy and effective at any given time and ride them.

Another area where depth was clearly a priority include the middle infield, where Omar Vizquel can be replaced by Jhonny Peralta, Brandon Phillips, Alex Cora, even Jose Hernandez or Aaron Boone. Most of those guys can also back up Ronnie Belliard at 2nd, or Broussard or Boone at their positions. In fact, with the exceptions of Belliard and Broussard, all of the other infielders are capable of playing at least two positions.

The Indians had some success addressing their rotation depth as well, as they re-signed competent fifth starter Scott Elarton and brought in their major free agent prize of the offseason, Kevin Millwood. This is probably the part of the roster that concerns the team the most, as they only have five starters in the organization with any extended success at the major league level (and that's including the young and somewhat inconsistent Cliff Lee) and an injury to any one of them forces the likes of Jason Davis, Kyle Denney, or perhaps Tallet or Tadano into the rotation, none of whom can be expected to put up above average numbers. But with the exception of the White Sox (who of course have other problem areas on their roster) none of their division rivals have deep rotations either, so it will come down to staying healthy.

The Front Office Speaks
To give us a sense of the Indians front office's approach to the game, Assistant GM Chris Antonetti generously answered some questions via email. Antonetti is a rising star among front office members and is one of the keys to the Cleveland staff which is, in this author's opinion, the best in the game.

BTF: What would you consider the strengths of the Cleveland Indians organization?

Antonetti: I believe that the strength of the organization lies in talented and passionate people that share common goals and values. We – front office, field staff, scouts and players – are united in the fact that we all believe that we have a chance to build something unique and special in Cleveland.

BTF: Aside from revenue, what are the weaknesses (or areas that need work)?

Antonetti: While we believe that we have numerous effective systems and practices, we continuously look for ways to improve in every facet of our operations. Probably our biggest challenge, as with most organizations, is to find ways to limit the number and severity of injuries to keep players on the field.

Antonetti: We are constantly seeking to find values in the marketplace. While I’m not sure other teams undervalue this area per se, we have had some success with identifying players we believe will be able to recover from their ailments and make a contribution at the major league level. Given the limited level of commitment, if it works out even 1/3 of the time it makes sense. In our market, these are investments we need to make.

Antonetti: We do believe that these programs lead to results on the field. The program in the Dominican Republic helps our players learn how to learn. In addition to better equipping these players for life outside of baseball, we believe a more developed aptitude will allow players to more readily make mental and fundamental adjustments as they progress through the development system. Similarly, the Winter Development program not only continues a player’s fundamental instruction, but it also helps acclimate minor league players to issues that may arise once they arrive at the major league level. By proactively addressing these issues before they experience them at the major league level, we hope to minimize the potential distractions and de-railers that could adversely affect their ability to contribute at the major league level.

Antonetti: Character is integral at all levels of player acquisition for us. From the amateur draft to the signing of major league free agents, we carefully examine and research the character and background of any potential acquisition.

Antonetti: Although it is widely known that we have developed a relationship with ASMI, I would prefer to not to move beyond that in terms of discussing specific actions that we have taken to improve in this area. In general terms, Lonnie Soloff (our head ML trainer) and his staff continuously examine and research tools and methods to improve our ability to keep our players on the field.

Antonetti: Jake had a tremendous year in 2004. While we understand the role strikeouts play in performance and projected performance, we believe that Jake will continue to be successful despite the strike out rates. Jake’s two seam FB and improved cutter limit the number of extra base hits he allows. He is very efficient ground ball pitcher that throws strikes. He doesn’t allow many extra base hits, his GB/FB was 3rd best among starting pitchers in 2004 and he threw the 7th fewest pitches per inning. If he stays healthy and we play solid defense behind him, we feel Jake will be a very dependable starting pitcher for us.

Antonetti: As difficult as it was emotionally to see Manny and Jim leave Cleveland, objectively we are in a much better position to be competitive without them here. Both are great and productive players, however, if we signed either guy we would have far more difficulty building a competitive team in 2005 and beyond with our budget limitations. Unless the economic variables change, the realities of our market are such that we will likely not be able to afford a player that commands those salary levels, as it would account for an unduly large percentage of our payroll. The implications this will have on our ability to keep CC a Cleveland Indian remains to be seen. We still are hopeful that CC will make a choice to stay an Indian, just as numerous other players have placed a premium on staying with an organization they appreciate.

Antonetti: It will depend upon the number of games Victor plays at 1B or DH. Probably 35 – 50.

Antonetti: We are not preoccupied with handedness but rather guys who are effective at getting hitters out. That said, Rhodes and Sauerbeck are very likely on the team and Cliff Bartosh will compete for another spot. There is a real chance that we will actually carry three left-handed relievers.

Antonetti: Tremendous leader and a relentless communicator. Very intelligent and passionate baseball man.

2005 Prognosis
So what does all this mean for 2005? Primarily, that it's going to be a dogfight all season long in the AL Central as four very evenly matched teams fight for one playoff spot. But the Indians' focus on depth throughout the roster means that they can weather an injury to anyone but their top three starters without much trouble. With their vastly improved bullpen to go along with an offense that was quietly 5th in all of the major leagues in runs scored (outscoring even the vaunted Cardinals), the one thing we can predict with confidence is that they will be a strong but not a dominant team. The 83 - 88 win range looks likely, but given the nature of the division they will probably need at least one of their rivals to stumble and fade to secure that playoff spot.

Pitchers

RHRP Rafael Betancourt
I don't have Asperger Syndrome or anything, although I guess I have tendencies, but I know how people who have that affliction must feel when I watch Rafael Betancourt pitch. His foot-tapping and slow leg lift (Betancourt pitches exclusively from the stretch) are the pitching motion equivalent of a buzzing flourescent light or nails on a chalkboard. That said, it's hard to argue with the results, as Betancourt posted a 10.26 K/9 and 4.22 K/BB in 66.2 innings of relief in 2004. There were times last season, especially earlier when Jose Jimenez was still around and Riske was distracted by his newborn son's difficulties, when Betancourt was literally the only reliable reliever in the Indians pen. Unfortunately, Betancourt consistently has trouble when pitching in the 2nd of back-to-back games. His K/9 with 0 days rest was 4.5, with 1 day rest 12.75, and with 2 days rest 12.0. So while he's exposed when he has to carry the pen on his own, he's a cheap and very valuable component of what is now a deep Indians relief corps. Just make sure to let me know when he's about to come in the game so I can look away.

RHRP Fernando Cabrera
The big Puerto Rican right-hander features a heavy mid-90s fastball and an even heavier splitter. He'll get lots of Ks (92 in 75 IP in AAA, and he had a rather slow start and didn't really get going until June) and lots of groundballs. Cabrera has a very good arm and the strong, thick lower body a power pitcher needs to generate downhill momentum and save wear on the shoulder. His delivery is pretty rough though, as he falls off severely to the 1st base side, but his control is reasonable despite this. He probably will not start the season in the major league bullpen, but he should finish as one of its most valuable members.

RHRP Jason Davis
Still has the great sinking fastball, still doesn't have a clue how to be a pitcher. But at least in the bullpen he can be successful as a thrower, and the front office is moving in this direction. They are hedging somewhat in spring training, saying that Davis will prepare for the season as a starter ready to step in should one of the other starters not be able to go come April, but assuming the rotation is healthy through the spring he will start off 2005 as a middle reliever and be groomed for an eventual spot at the back of the pen. And despite his great stuff, he still shouldn't be the first choice to step into the rotation if somebody else can't go -- Tadano or Denney would be much better choices. It would probably be best for all parties if he were just moved to the bullpen immediately and permanently. With his sinking, boring fastball that is extremely tough on right-handed hitters, as long as he doesn't have to change speeds or go through a lineup more than once he could be dominant.

RHSP Scott Elarton
Elarton was legitimately awful during his time in Colorado, but he had the dual excuses of continuing recovery from his 2002 shoulder injury and, well, the fact that he was pitching in Colorado. But he was solid after being signed by the Indians, with a 4.43 ERA and a 5.93 K/9 in 101.2 innings after June. Elarton reportedly feared pitching to contact in Coors, and he was still adjusting to the more pitcher-friendly environment as the season wore on. Homeruns are still a problem though, as he gave up 23 in those same 101.2 innings.

Elarton is a big guy (6'8", 240 lbs.), throws his fastball around 90mph and has a deceptive, short-arm motion. He's got a nice curve which is pretty effective against lefties, as evidenced by his sizeable reverse platoon split (901 OPS against vs RH, 772 OPS against vs LH). With his size, his relatively young age (29), and the fact that he's now nearly 3 years removed from the shoulder surgery, he could see a slight increase in velocity. Now that he's comfortable throwing strikes again and attacking hitters with the fastball and changeup, he'll be at a minimum a good number 4 or 5 starter. With an uptick in velocity he could surprise a lot of people in 2005.

RHRP Jeremy Guthrie
Pitched at 3 levels in 2004 and showed no consistency at any of them. He pitched passably in 130.1 IP at AA Akron, with a 4.21 ERA and a 6.49 K/9 and a 2.23 K/BB -- but he was a 25 year old in his 3rd tour of duty in AA. Still disappointing numbers for the former first-round pick. The bottom fell out upon his promotion to AAA, where he had 18 BBs against only 10 Ks in 19.1 IP and his ERA ballooned to 7.91. The Indians, figuring he couldn't be any worse in the majors and knowing by early September that they were out of the race for the division crown, called him up. And he actually did OK. He did give up a few walks, but that was more from a tendency to nibble against major league hitters than a loss of control.

Guthrie has undeniably good stuff. His fastball runs around 92 (although it is pretty flat) and he can throw strikes with the slider, curve, and change, and he uses the same fluid, easy delivery on each pitch. But like Sickels says, somehow the whole is just less than the sum of the parts with this guy. Personally, I'm still optimistic that he'll be a good bullpen arm and maybe even work his way into the rotation at some point. Clearly something's not right with him, but with his stuff and intelligence I believe the odds are still in his favor.

RHRP Bob Howry
Howry has turned into one of the team's nicer post-surgery pickups. It took him a while to recuperate from 2003 elbow surgery, but he was terrific in July and August, with an 8.51 K/9 and 1.47 ERA in 30.2 innings during those two months. He tailed off quite a bit in September, but the Indians hope that he'll be able to stay strong through the entire season now that he's 2 full years removed from the elbow surgery. Howry throws strikes and pounds the outside edge with a 2-seam fastball with great natural movement. A very effective and dependable member of the bullpen, and the first option for closer when Wickman hits the DL.

LHSP Cliff Lee

I don't know, you tell me. Lee's ERA spiked in the second half in 2004, but his K/9 and K/BB actually improved. The only ratio that worsened significantly along with his ERA was his HR rate, which more than doubled. It's tough to chalk this up to fatigue when he increased his K rate by 27%. Lee throws a mean fastball from the left side and has that legitimately great hook which he can throw for strikes. The main negative is that, last season at least, he tired around the 5-inning mark, causing his fastball to flatten out, get up in the zone, and get hammered. There's no way to know whether his lack of conditioning was due to lingering effects from the offseason hernia surgery or because he's kinda scrawny.

After CC, the Indians rotation in 2005 is full of question marks, and Lee is the biggest of them all. He still has tremendous upside, and you could do a lot worse for a fourth starter.

RHRP Matt Miller
You're telling me the Rockies couldn't use this guy? Miller was signed as a minor league free agent before the 2004 season after bouncing around the indpendent leagues and the Texas, San Diego, Oakland, and Colorado organizations. At age 32 he took advantage of his first full shot at the major leagues (he got a 4 inning trial with COL in 2003) and immediately became a valuable, effective, and consistent cog in the Indians bullpen. Miller throws with a sidearm, not-quite-underhand motion and is very, very tough on right-handed batters, who managed a 201/260/266 line against him. He's got a severe platoon split, however, as lefties pounded him for a 431 OBP and a 418 SLG. Cheap, good command, strikes out a batter an inning, wears glasses, and is an easy guy to root for as he makes the most of his relatively late-in-life shot at the bigs. The kind of guy that makes you think, "Hey, I'm only 29, I could still turn pro."

RHSP Kevin Millwood
When Millwood is going good he can consistently throw strikes down and away with his fastball using an easy, downhill motion. Unfortunately, he can also start "pushing" his fastball, losing his location inside the strike zone and getting hit hard. His breaking ball has tons of bite and tends to be in the dirt. His best bet is to pitch to contact, working his fastball down on either corner, as he doesn't have the stuff to induce guys to swing at pitches outside the strike zone. He cut his SB against from 41 in 222 IP 2003 to 12 in 141 IP in 2004, over 50% on an innings-adjusted basis, and did it while bumping up his K/9 to a hair under 8.0 while keeping his K/BB constant. Millwood sports nice ratios, and until the injury in 2004 all of his indicators were trending upwards, despite his reputation as being something of a disappointment after leaving Atlanta. A healthy Millwood will be a tremendous boost to the Indians' rotation. He's also a good bet to spend one or two stretches on the DL this summer, but if he makes 20-25 starts the Indians should be satisfied.

The one year contract makes eminent sense for both player and team for 2005, but it virtually guarantees that Millwood will not be with the team come 2006. An in-season extension is highly doubtful, and should Millwood have a successful season, Scott Boras will be able to get him a contract way beyond the Indians' means.

LHRP Arthur Rhodes
Despite the bump in ERA in 2004, Arthur Lee may still have something left in the tank. As far as the Indians are concerned, whatever they get out of him in 2005 will be pure bonus, as he was acquired simply so the Indians could get out of paying Matt Lawton $7MM this season and keep Ronnie Belliard (and as a result they're on the hook to Rhodes for $3.5MM for each of the next two seasons). They already had lefty options in the bullpen, but Rhodes brings some veteran presence and Wedge, being an old-school guy, plans to use him in the late innings. His K rate has been trending slowly downwards in recent years, but he still struck out 34 batters in 38.2 IP in 2004. The increased ERA was due to sizeable upticks in both his walk rate and HR rate. He'd be miscast as a LOOGY and there's no way to know if he'll be able to stand up to the kind of usage Wedge has in mind for him. Shapiro is gambling that the improved bullpen depth and the money freed up to re-sign Belliard for 2005 will be worth more than the $3.5MM they will likely have to pay Rhodes in 2006 (unless Shapiro can find a greater fool to take him off his hands before next year, which would be quite a coup indeed).

RHRP David Riske
Riske finished 2004 strong after a very difficult and disappointing start to the season. Off-field distractions kept him from nailing down the closer's job when Wickman opened the season on the DL, but he got back on track after June 1st and finished the season with a very respectable K/9 (9.08) and ERA (3.72), although his walk rate more than doubled and the control problems seemed to come and go all season. Riske's fastball now runs around 90-91, down a few ticks in the past couple of years, but his motion is still very quick and deceptive. He complements the fastball with a splitter, but he doesn't change speeds much and mostly relies on location and his delivery to get lots of Ks and popups.

Riske was arbitration-eligible going into the 2005 season and signed a $1.4MM, 1-year contract. He hasn't shown the ability to pitch effectively in the closer's spot and with plenty of young and cheap right-handed arms lined up behind him, the budget minded Indians may opt to trade him sooner rather than later -- especially if the team's other veteran bullpen arms are healthy and effective.

LHSP CC Sabathia
The most valuable player in the organization had a rough go of it in 2004. He lost his father, uncle, and cousin during the course of the season and while his two trips to the DL (strained biceps tendon and left hamstsring) seemed like peanuts in comparison, they were frustrating nonetheless. He spent the winter with a full-time personal trainer and this spring the "Player X is in the best shape of his career" stories are all about Sabathia. He's still huge and his pants don't fit, but he has reportedly been working very hard on core and lower body training to ease strain on his shoulder. CC features a full complement of pitches -- explosive four-seam fastball, decent curve and slider, excellent changeup. The stuff is there, and it's first rate. But at age 24 (he turns 25 in July) he's still very much working on the mental aspect of the game, and is now buying into team studies on things like pitching to contact and increasing his percentage of first-pitch strikes.

CC's future with the organization is the insistent, blinking neon question mark hovering over the team that gets harder to ignore by the day. His current contract has an option for 2006 that vests if he pitches 150 in 2005, a mark which he is certain to reach barring injury, and even if he did miss time with injury it's likely the team would pick the option up anyway. There has been no indication from either player or front office about whether negotations to keep him in an Indians uniform after 2006 have begun. It's hard to imagine that, if he's not signed to an extension by this point next year, he would still be willing to sign one, so the window of opportunity for it -- if it exists at all -- may not be open very wide. Dealing with this situation is going to be the biggest test yet faced by the Shapiro front office, bigger even than Ramirez and Thome leaving. Most fans were angry about those players not being re-signed but eventually came to understand that, given the financial constraints of a team in Cleveland, Shapiro was right not to mortgage the franchise to sign defensively-challenged corner hitters at the high of the market. Yes, we miss Manny and Thome, but we're glad to have an exciting young team now. And besides, there was still CC to pin our hopes on at that point. Watching him sign with another team would be a severe blow to the morale of the franchise and its fans, not to mention the product on the field.

LHRP Scott Sauerbeck
The Indians signed Sauerbeck to a 1-year contract with an option for 2005 in March of 2004, three months after shoulder surgery. They will know shortly if he was worth the investment (and the wait). The lefty did not face a batter last season but has been a pretty effective pitcher in the past, showing good K rates, low HR rates, and decent command. As Antonetti noted above, if he's healthy he's almost certain to make the roster and should prove a very effective tactical weapon for Eric Wedge. Sauerbeck was death on lefties in 2002 and 2003, holding them to a 171/268/271 line. He doesn't embarrass himself against righthanders, but he does walk quite a few and given the presence of one or two other lefties in the pen we should see quite a few slow walks to the mound from manager Wedge this summer as he seeks to limit his appearances against them.

RHRP Kaz Tadano
The Indians brought Tadano on a slow, careful trip to the majors beginning in late 2003 that effectively minimized the gossip about the off-field issues that led to him being spurned by Japanese baseball and eventually signing with the Indians. They were careful to release news about him when the eyes of the baseball world were elsewhere, and since his teammates and opponents weren't bothered by his past, it was a non-issue among all but the hardest core of homophobes. Which is a good thing, because now we can start talking about his pitching, which is pretty darned good. Tadano works fast, with a more fluid version of the exaggerated delivery employed by Hideo Nomo, and throws a fastball, curve, slider, and a very good change. The 24-year old was used in the classic swingman role in 2004, logging 4 starts in 14 appearances before being shut down in September with back problems. After offseason surgery he'll likely start 2005 in Buffalo, ready to step in to either the rotation or a bullpen spot whenever he's needed.

RHSP Jake Westbrook
Something happened on April 19th, 2004. Summoned out of the bullpen when Jeff D'Amico was unable to record an out in his start against the Tigers, Jake Westbrook recorded 21 straight outs (7 of them strikeouts) using 82 pitches. Forced into action without his usual mental preparation, Westbrook was forced to adhere to that age-old adage about "trusting your stuff" and, remarkably, it worked. He invited Tigers hitters to swing away at his sinker and they were unable to do anything with it. He immediately replaced D'Amico in the rotation and in his first start, also against the Tigers, he pitched a 1-hitter. OK, yeah, it was the Tigers, but still -- giving up only 2 runs on 1 hit over 16 straight innings is pretty impressive. Westbrook continued to impress all season, finishing with a 3.38 ERA in 215.2 innings, including 5 complete games.

Westbrook starts 2005 as the Indians clear #2 starter and will start opening day in Chicago as CC Sabathia recovers from his abdominal muscle strain. Is he going to touch that 3.38 ERA in 2005? ZiPS clearly doesn't think so, as it sees the relatively low K rate (ZiPS projects 4.79 K/9, his actual rate in 2004 was 4.84) and the lack of an established track record and makes the safe bet that he will regress. But as Antonetti points out, Westbrook is a pretty extreme groundballer who does not give up many walks and has the slider and cut fastball that can get him a K when he needs it. But he's smart and efficient enough to simply challenge hitters early in the count, keep his pitch count low, and pitch deep into games. It seems fashionable to predict a regression from Westbrook, but his approach to pitching is qualitatively different from what it was before last April, and I believe he is more likely than not to continue pitching at this level. The Indians seem to agree, as they signed him to a 2-year deal this offseason.

RHRP Bob Wickman
Every outing for Wickman in 2004 was a test. As he recovered from Tommy John surgery in 2003 he suffered what sounded like a severe setback in spring training, and he did not join the major league roster until July. He was surprisingly effective as he and Eric Wedge probed his elbow to see what it could handle: 1 inning, then two games in three days, eventually to three effective outings in three days. The results were good enough that the team brought him back on a 1 year deal after missing out on Armando Benitez and Troy Percival in the free agent market, and he starts the season at the back end of the bullpen. It's difficult to imagine his surgically resurrected elbow will let him last through the entire 2005 season, especially since he relies heavily on the splitter, but he's surprised us before and after the guts he displayed last season he's easy to root for. As for why Shapiro would spend nearly $3MM this season on a less-than-lights-out reliever with a bad elbow, it seems the lessons learned from 2004's bullpen nightmare were that 1.) reliever performance for all but the very best pitchers is nearly impossible to predict, and 2.) given that fact, the key to building a successful pen is depth. Wickman was relatively affordable and no matter what you think about veteran presence and closer pixie dust, the Indians bullpen is clearly deeper with him than with any of the other free agent relievers on the market after Benitez and Percival signed.

Position Players

C Victor Martinez
After one year as a regular Victor Martinez is the undisputed leader of this Indians team. He won't win any gold gloves at catcher, but he's worked very, very hard to make himself an average defensive catcher in the major leagues. Martinez has hit well at every level he's played as a professional, but most of his instruction has gone into improving his defensive skills. Footwork, release, pitch calling -- these are the things Martinez works at relentlessly, and he has earned the respect of all of his pitchers.

But enough about that. Let's talk about his bat. Martinez is a devastating switch hitter with power and patience from both sides of the plate. In 2004 he showed a touch more power from the left side and a little better OBP from the right, but he's equally dangerous from either side. He has a very good eye at the plate and although he will occasionally chase a high fastball, he is very good at laying off offspeed stuff down and away, and he had nearly as many walks (60) as strikeouts (69) last season. 2005 should bring more of the same. I expect him to show a little higher batting average and a little more power, especially since he'll have a healthy and effective backup in Josh Bard and the team is committed to giving him regular days off and turns at DH to keep him fresh through September and hopefully beyond.

C Josh Bard
Bard spent most of 2004 recovering from an April surgery to correct a "sports hernia". He started slowly in AAA Buffalo but eventually made it back to the big leagues in September and got in 7 games at the end of the year. He will start 2005 with no restrictions and will back up Victor Martinez at catcher. It's a bit unfair to call Bard a defensive specialist, since he has hit a little in the past and isn't an embarrasment at the plate, but he's unlikely to crack a 750 OPS in his career. Bard is a bit of an anomaly in that he's probably more valuable to other teams -- being a young, cheap, switch-hitting catcher who's very good behind the plate -- than he is to the Indians, where he's backing up a young all-star. But just like a year ago, Shapiro does not need to trade Bard since it costs virtually nothing to carry him, and he can wait to be overwhelmed by a trade offer, or more likely, include him in a package for a big-time arm or bat this summer. The Indians are a bit thin at catcher at AAA however, so look for Shapiro to pick up a cheap veteran C to stash at Buffalo in preparation for dealing Bard.

1B Ben Broussard
Broussard's unexpected offensive contributions in 2004 bought him a reprieve from the chopping block, since as the season started he was considered a very short-term solution at 1B. As it turned out, his good defense and 275/370/488 line -- very respectable even for a corner bat -- allowed Hafner to remain a DH and gives 1B prospect Mike Aubrey extra development time. His final line is more impressive in the context of his brutal slump in May (560 OPS in 75 ABs). He came out of it by concentrating on hitting to left and was consistently excellent from June onwards and was on fire in August. Broussard's overall improvement in 2005 came primarily from a relaxed approach and an increase in his walk rate, although he did also bring up his batting average 26 points while his HR rate actually dropped. Broussard killed lefties in limited action in 2004 (1081 OPS) but that's not something that should be counted on, and he'll likely be spelled by Jose Hernandez and perhaps Ryan Garko against lefthanders. Not a bad return for Russell Branyan.

2B Ronnie Belliard
This guy is really, really fun to watch. Belliard brought his likeable, shaggy-dog act to Cleveland in 2004 after the Indians missed out on Todd Walker, and expectations for him were low. He has a unique approach to playing second base, often stationing himself in shallow right field to maximize his range. Nonetheless, he is pretty quick on the double play and despite his unusual positioning he plays a very solid and un-flashy 2B. At the plate he bears a striking physical resemblance to former Indian Manny Ramirez, with his cornrows and casually bent-over stance from the right side. But while the results can't quite measure up to Manny (no shame in that), they're definitely better than average. He hit 282/348/426 overall, including a 319/398/529 line against lefties. Belliard hit 12 HRs but is definitely not a major home run threat, instead whacking tons of doubles (48 last season) to the alleys and running out lots of ground balls. Belliard clearly lost effectiveness in the 2nd half of the season, so the rationale behind the Cora signing was getting Belliard plenty of days off to keep him fresh. And since Belliard was only re-upped to a 1-year deal, it's likely that he'll be allowed to leave after 2005 and Cora and/or Phillips will man 2B in 2006.

2B/SS Alex Cora
An excellent left-handed hitting complement to Ronnie Belliard. Cora plays premium defense at 2B and is a smart, active, alert, and fundamentally sound player. Cora had probably a career year at the plate in 2004, putting up a 264/364/380 line in Dodger Stadium, with 47 BBs and 41 Ks, and reached double digits in HRs (ok, barely -- he hit 10). But those numbers probably represent his peak offense and he's not likely to hit at that level again. The Indians realize that and Cora was brought in primarily to spell Belliard against tough RHPs and as insurance against injury or ineffectiveness striking Belliard or Peralta.

It's interesting that the Indians have signed another team's keystone duo, especially given that a.) they already had starters and reasonable depth at 2B and SS and that b.) Hernandez and Cora are unlikely to appear on the field together very often since they bat from opposite sides of the plate. They're more like a "platoon platoon" than anything else and should give Wedge plenty of tactical options.

SS Jhonny Peralta
The 2004 International League MVP, Peralta was the starting shortstop for the champion Bisons and led the league in hits and runs scored and was 2nd in doubles. He's still young too, as he turns 23 in May. Peralta is an average-to-slightly-below-average defensive shortstop, with good hands, a decent arm, and below average range. His body is thicker and squatter than most shortstops and he may have to move to 3B at some point, but for now he has the inside track on the job of replacing Omar Vizquel.

As good as his hitting line was in AAA in 2004, Peralta certainly does not project as a future major league batting champion, as he struck out quite a bit (126 Ks in 556 ABs) and had never before hit above .281 for a season in the minors. But if he can carry over most of those 44 doubles from AAA to the majors while playing adequate defense at short -- well, the Indians will take that from a 23 year old shortstop making the league minimum. And if he bombs or gets hurt there are a number of guys who can step in.

The Indians have two interesting pairs of keystone combos that were successful last year. Hernandez and Cora went to the playoffs with the Dodgers, and Peralta and Phillips won the AAA championship with the Bisons. It should make for a interesting experiment in the transitive properties of middle infield mojo.

2B/SS Brandon Phillips
OK, he was awful in 2003, but that ZiPS projection is too low. Phillips is still a fine prospect with terrific range at SS and gold-glove caliber defense at 2B. At age 23, in his first extended time at AAA, he had a solid 303/363/430 line with 34 doubles and a 44/56 BB/K ratio in 521 ABs. It doesn't scream "future all-star" anymore, but after the humiliation of 2003 it was a nice confidence builder ending with Phillips being a key member of a AAA champion Bisons squad. He has reportedly matured quite a bit over the last year or so, no longer referring to himself as "the Franchise", although he still can't help hotdogging it a little on defense. It's OK; with him it seems more like natural exuberance than arrogance. The Tribe infield is extremely crowded in 2005 and Phillips is likely to again spend the bulk of the season in Buffalo. This time he knows that his only way onto the 25-man is to hit, and it will be a pleasure to watch him grow and improve. His walk rate is climbing and if he makes himself into an average-hitting ML infielder, with his defense and considering his young age, he'll be a very valuable player in 2006 and beyond. It's still an open question as to whether that will happen in this organization or another.

3B Aaron Boone
Boone was last seen on a baseball diamond being a non-factor in the 2003 World Series after his storybook homerun put the Yankees there. He's always been a very good defender at 3B and although he is practically the dictionary definition of the average-hitting major league regular (career OPS+ of 103) he would have clearly been out of the Indians' price range if not for the knee injury. Well, he'd also probably still be a Yankee, but never mind that. His famous pickup basketball game eventually led to Mark Shapiro being able to sign him and many observers are still scratching their heads. Casey Blake, almost exactly the same age as Boone and with two knees unacquainted with the surgeon's knife, definitely falls short of Boone defensively but is equal to him or perhaps even a little better with the bat while being a heck of a lot cheaper (until they signed Blake to an extension, but that's another story). But despite Blake's presence and admirable play, Shapiro jumped at the opportunity to sign a solid veteran 3B for below-market value for four reasons: 1.) There was no depth behind Blake at 3B on the 40 man or at AAA; 2.) AA prospect Corey Smith's defense was so bad that he was about to be moved to the outfield and he certainly wasn't going to hit his way onto the 25-man; 3.) Boone is a "character" guy, and the Indians front office will put extra effort into going after players with good makeups; and 4.) forced into constant alertness by his payroll constraints, Shapiro is constitutionally unable to pass up a good deal. He's signed for $3MM plus $2MM in incentives for 2005, with a $4.5MM option (with $1MM in incentives) for 2006. If he plays great; great -- it's a deal. If he's hurt and can't go, you're out $3MM but it's not a franchise killer. And if the rest of the team tanks but he's going good, he's nice trade fodder. So yeah, it wasn't a deal that the Indians had to make, but it gives them roster flexibility in 2005 and 2006 while preserving payroll flexibility.

OF Coco Crisp
You would probably not have been able to find a bigger Coco Crisp doubter than your humble author going into 2004. Where's the power?, I asked. Where are the walks? Well, Coco shut me and all the other haters up big time last season, outplaying and outlasting everybody ahead of him on the CF depth chart after being buried by the front office, and guaranteeing himself in the process a starting spot in the 2005 outfield. Moreover, his solid play allowed the team to unload Matt Lawton on the Pirates, knowing that they'd have at least one solid outfielder in Crisp while they rotated Sizemore, Gerut, Blake, and Ludwick through the other two spots.

Crisp, now 25 years old, put up a very fine 318/368/472 line in 267 ABs after the All-Star break as he got more regular playing time. The walk rate increased, the K rate decreased, and he whacked 15 HRs on the season. Crisp is a smart and coachable guy and knows that the team wants him to be a leadoff hitter, and knows as well that a leadoff hitter needs a high OBP. Look for his walk rate to spike even more in 2005 as he makes a bid to establish himself as one of the game's better leadoff men. There are still causes for concern, like his atrocious caught-stealing rate (20 steals in 33 attempts) and the walk rate which is still well below where it needs to be to make him a real OBP threat, but I don't think Coco is done improving, and anyway, he's earned the benefit of the doubt.

OF Juan Gonzalez
Igor is back and hoping for another career revitalization in the friendly confines of Jacobs Field, where he put up a tremendous 325/370/590 season in 2001 and where he still holds the record for most HRs by a visiting player. At least, he did as of a year ago; I need to have my stats department check on that. Anyway, he's back and this time he costs a lot less than the $10MM he got in 2001, as he's guaranteed only $600k. If he stays healthy all season and hits every incentive he'll earn around $2.5MM, and the team will be happy to pay him. ZiPS clearly isn't optimistic and he's never been a real patient hitter, but a 285 OBP? The guy's 35, not 85. Even in his injury marred and very disappointing 2004 season in KC he managed a 276/326/441 line, and that's about what I'd expect from him this season if he's healthy. The main variable with him is predicting how long he'll be able to stay healthy, rather than how much he'll hit when he's in the lineup. If he can stay healthy through June, when Gerut is projected to return to the roster, the Indians will have a cheap and productive RF platoon (Gonzalez 865 OPS vs lefties over the last 3 seasons, Gerut 856 OPS vs righties over the same period).

The early reports out of spring training are not good, as Gonzalez strained/pulled/tore/mangled a hamstring running to first in his 8th at-bat of the spring.

OF Ryan Ludwick
Solid right-handed bat, but nagging injuries have kept him from producing. Ludwick spent most of 2004 rehabbing from knee surgery in April, and his AAA line was an decent if uninspiring 271/346/506 with 8 HRs, 16 BBs, and 52Ks in 166 ABs. He didn't hit in the majors, however, with a downright awful 220/278/380 line in 50 ABs. Ludwick will be 27 in July and the best he and the organization can probably hope for is a few years of usefulness. With the injuries he's suffered and all of the playing time he's missed it's impossible at this point to predict what his true level of ability will be, and the Indians certainly aren't counting on him in the outfield. They seem to figure that at least two among Ludwick, Blake, Gonzalez, and Gerut should be healthy at any given time, and that should be enough to muddle through the season alongside young stalwarts Crisp and Sizemore.

OF Grady Sizemore
The likely left fielder of the future got his first taste of major league action in 2004 and, at age 22, didn't embarrass himself. He started off the season slowly after suffering an eye infection in spring training and took a while to get on track in Buffalo. His totals there aren't all that impressive (801 OPS, 8 HRs, 42 BBs, 72 Ks in 423 ABs) but in the context of his difficult spring and the fact that he was seeing AAA for the first time, they're not too bad. Upon promotion to the majors Sizemore more than held his own against right-handers, maintaining his walk rate and slugging a very impressive 516 in 93 ABs, but was totally overmatched by southpaws. Nobody's writing him off as a platoon guy though -- far from it. Sizemore isn't guaranteed a spot on the roster only because Juan Gonzalez came so cheaply this offseason, but barring injuries he's guaranteed to finish the season a fixture in the outfield. Everybody likes this kid, scouts and spreadsheets alike. He's got The Good Face, he runs hard on everything and plays great defense, he'll get on a lot and take the extra base whenever he can. Now that Rusty Greer has retired, fans of hustlin' white guys may soon have a new icon in the outfield.

OF Casey Blake
Signed as a stopgap 3B minor league free agent out of the Twins system before the 2003 season, Blake paid greater dividends in 2004 than the Indians could possibly have hoped for. At age 30, Blake put up a very fine 271/354/486 line in 587 ABs, with 28 HRs and 26 doubles. He's a very patient hitter, lots of walks and lots of Ks, good power, fundamentally sound on the basepaths. It's safe to say his defense is below average, however, thus prompting the Indians to pick up Boone and Jose Hernandez and move Blake to the outfield for 2005. They signed him to a two year deal this offseason as well, and given Aaron Boone's expensive option for 2006 you may see him back at the hot corner next year.

Much criticism has been levelled at the team for moving Blake, whose bat plays very well at 3B, to a corner outfield spot where not only would his bat be less valuable, but he's never played in the outfield on an extended basis. After signing Boone, however, the front office had painted itself into a corner. Moving Blake to 2B was discussed but was never really a viable option, as his range would have been well below average and learning to turn the double play from 2nd is tougher than learning the outfield. At any rate, they moved quickly to re-sign Belliard after Lawton was traded, thereby forcing Blake to the outfield. Concerns about his defense there should be put to rest shortly, as he does have a very strong and accurate arm and is a fast and athletic player. Offensively, last year's 840 OPS would have placed him 23rd among all major league outfielders, between Brian Giles and Andruw Jones. Not an all star, but still a valuable corner bat if he hits at that level. Of course, we probably just saw a career year and ZiPS's prediction of a 790 OPS would have him right around the same level of production of a 2004 Coco Crisp (790) or Matt Lawton (787). Bashing the front office for wasting Blake's bat in the OF is misguided, since if we could live with those guys, we can presumably live with Blake. And with the prospect of a rookie shortstop with limited range replacing Vizquel, Boone's glove becomes more valuable at 3B than Blake's bat.

OF Jody Gerut
The sophomore season for Stanford grad Jody Gerut was thoroughly disappointing, beginning with a painful recovery from a rotator cuff injury, progressing through an extended batting slump, and ending with the searing pain of a torn ACL in September. He did continue to have success in one area, however -- just like in his rookie year, he pounded the crap out of Tigers pitching with a 1078 OPS. In fact, although Jody has a composite OPS of 785 over the past two years, his OPS against everybody who isn't the Tigers is actually a substantially lower 749. Now that the injury is forcing him to miss playing time and he's sandwiched in between Crisp and Sizemore on the 25-man and up-and-coming outfield prospects Franklin Gutierrez and Brad Snyder, Gerut may find himself pushed into the fourth outfielder role that so many thought was his original destiny before his excellent rookie campaign. Jody is still a good player and a very useful fourth outfielder since he can play a decent CF, but he needs to come out of the gate quickly if he is going to re-establish himself as a starter. ZiPS is optimistic.

DH Travis Hafner
Hafner is forever destined to be compared to Jim Thome, and in 2004, to near universal surprise, Hafner was Thome's equal at the plate. Hafner punished opposing pitching staffs all season long. He start out red hot in April and stayed that way through September, when he was shut down a week or so before the end of the season to prepare for arthroscopic elbow surgery. The procedure reportedly went well and he reported to spring training with no restrictions.

Hafner will hit some towering homeruns, but mostly he's a walks and doubles machine -- and RBIs, if you're into that sort of thing. He hits to all fields and has a truly outstanding eye at the plate, although he is vulnerable to fastballs up and in. Despite the "1 through 9" philosophy the Indians preach on offense, Hafner along with Victor Martinez is clearly the focus, the hitter opposing managers worry about, and the hitter the Indians can probably least afford to lose to injury. For that reason, it may be a blessing that Pronk is such a poor first baseman, since limiting his time in the field limits his opportunities for injury. Say what you will about the DH, one of its benefits is that we'll get to watch this guy hit for a long time.

UT Jose Hernandez
A very fine supersub. Hernandez can play any position but pitcher or catcher, and still has a very good bat from the right side. You may have heard that he strikes out a lot, and he does. But he also does all of the little things very well: he'll steal a base, take a walk, take the extra base, go to the opposite field for his base hits, etc. The Indians probably shouldn't expect a repeat of his 289/370/540 2004 season (in Dodger Stadium, no less) but he'll still be an invaluable help to Eric Wedge as he tries to keep his regulars fresh and rested through September. And hey -- did your team's utility infielder put up a 1010 OPS in 126 ABs against LHP last year?

2005 ZiPS Projections

Name          ERA   W   L   G  GS     INN    H   ER   BB    K  HR 
Betancourt   3.30   6   2  69   0    79.0   66   29   26   90   7 
Miller       3.52   5   3  63   0    69.0   61   27   30   68   3 
Rhodes*      3.93   6   3  57   0    55.0   52   24   18   55   6 
Wickman      3.97   2   1  33   0    34.0   33   15   10   29   4 
Millwood     4.07  13   9  32  32   190.0  191   86   58  155  18 
Howry        4.13   4   3  54   0    61.0   63   28   18   50   7 
Sabathia*    4.22  12   9  30  30   190.0  194   89   67  145  18 
Traber*      4.25  10   8  30  22   142.0  149   67   33   87  16 
Westbrook    4.37  11   8  32  26   173.0  188   84   55   92  14 
Riske        4.44   4   3  67   0    71.0   66   35   33   77   9 
Tadano       4.45   4   4  29   7    89.0   89   44   30   76  12 
Bartosh*     4.50   3   2  63   0    64.0   60   32   28   59   7 
Shuey        4.50   5   5  62   0    64.0   62   32   33   55   5 
Zerbe*       4.60   4   4  39   9    86.0   94   44   31   36   8 
Carmona      4.65  10  10  26  26   151.0  170   78   42   87  19 
Davis        4.70   8   7  29  23   155.0  170   81   54   96  18 
Stanford*    4.87   7   8  20  17   109.0  118   59   43   70  13 
Cabrera      4.88   6   6  37  14   107.0  102   58   59  103  13 
Watkins      4.98   5   7  38  16   121.0  125   67   58   93  14 
Denney       5.00   8   8  24  24   135.0  147   75   51  100  20 
Sauerbeck*   5.03   4   4  79   0    59.0   54   33   38   58   6 
Bere         5.13   4   4  13  13    72.0   81   41   25   46  11 
Lee*         5.13   9  10  29  29   156.0  160   89   73  144  25 
Cruceta      5.27  10  13  29  29   169.0  185   99   87  112  20 
Dittler      5.34   8   9  23  22   118.0  128   70   51   82  18 
Tallet*      5.38   5   6  24  19   117.0  129   70   54   72  16 
Guthrie      5.54   8  10  31  26   156.0  179   96   70   94  24 
Stark        5.61   6   9  28  22   130.0  155   81   49   69  21 
Robbins      5.67   3   5  43   1    73.0   81   46   42   44   9 
Green        5.76   8  10  26  26   125.0  135   80   76   79  15 
Brown        5.80   6   8  26  26   118.0  122   76   73  104  19 
Elarton      5.86   5   8  25  25   132.0  157   86   49   86  28 
van Dusen*   5.89   5   8  30  21   133.0  151   87   70   80  21

Name         P    AVG   OBP   SLG   G  AB   H 2B 3B HR   R RBI  BB   K SB CS 
Hafner*      1b  .298  .399  .532 133 466 139 34  3 23  79  85  68 105  3  2 
Martinez#    c   .299  .373  .495 136 511 153 35  1 21  75  89  57  66  1  3 
Boone        3b  .255  .320  .442 161 597 152 36  2 24  85  91  51 105 25  5 
Blake        3b  .265  .340  .451 149 570 151 36  2 22  84  82  58 120  6 10 
Crisp#       cf  .304  .356  .424 146 573 174 26  5 11  91  66  48  74 22 16 
Gerut*       rf  .267  .346  .449 135 510 136 33  3 18  75  71  57  64 11  7 
Sizemore*    lf  .274  .343  .418 143 536 147 23  9 12  91  65  50  95 18  8 
Peralta      ss  .283  .342  .415 142 537 152 31  2 12  84  67  45 130  6  5 
Belliard     2b  .269  .338  .398 138 528 142 39  1  9  65  61  55  83  4  2 
Broussard*   1b  .265  .352  .460 132 430 114 27  3 17  59  67  51  93  4  2 
Abad*        1b  .295  .370  .468 111 387 114 26  1 13  61  57  44  59  2  3 
Phillips     2b  .251  .301  .367 149 558 140 28  2 11  73  56  37  79 13  9 
Young        rf  .252  .318  .443 120 420 106 21  1 19  52  70  38 111  3  4 
McDonald     cf  .266  .336  .390 115 436 116 23  5  7  53  42  44 100 11  6 
Ludwick      rf  .249  .320  .472 104 381  95 27  2 18  49  59  38  98  2  1 
Liefer*      1b  .266  .334  .484 108 335  89 20  1 17  50  54  33  75  1  1 
Garko        c   .264  .331  .415 110 386 102 20  1 12  56  50  26  61  2  1 
Cora*        2b  .263  .339  .359 140 418 110 16  3  6  48  49  36  47  4  3 
Morris*      2b  .265  .315  .376 120 441 117 25  3  6  49  46  31  67  5  3 
Rodriguez*   lf  .246  .321  .449 101 341  84 19  4 14  57  49  36  80  7  4 
Gutierrez    cf  .253  .308  .421 105 380  96 20  4 12  56  47  28 110 12  5 
Gautreau*    3b  .237  .315  .382 115 401  95 20  1 12  51  58  43 111  1  3 
Bard#        c   .263  .320  .411 101 365  96 22  1 10  38  48  30  53  0  1 
Aubrey*      1b  .266  .325  .418 100 335  89 16  1 11  40  51  28  47  2  1 
Hernandez    ss  .225  .295  .364 133 423  95 16  2 13  43  52  42 146  2  3 
Goleski      rf  .231  .281  .369 118 415  96 14  2 13  55  50  25  99  4  4 
Bragg*       lf  .236  .317  .373 125 335  79 18  2  8  42  33  38  79  6  5 
Kinkade      lf  .265  .350  .422  71 204  54 13  2  5  35  27  16  43  2  2 
Gonzalez     rf  .244  .285  .448  64 250  61 13  1 12  31  44  13  53  1  1 
Wathan       c   .268  .322  .348  71 224  60 13  1  1  30  21  17  35  2  1 
Wallace      c   .198  .273  .292  98 308  61 14  0  5  35  30  30 103  2  1 
Ochoa#       ss  .199  .259  .242  88 297  59  6  2  1  40  17  22  69 23  6 
Morban#      ss  .184  .245  .318  68 217  40  6  1  7  30  21  15  69  8  5