Colorado Rockies Preview

2005 will mark the ten year anniversary of the first—and thus far only—Colorado Rockies playoff team. In 1995 the Rockies rode the Blake Street Bombers, Vinny Castilla, Andres Galarraga, Larry Walker and Dante Bichette, along with an unheralded pitching staff to the National League Wild Card. They took a game off the eventual champion Atlanta Braves in the Division Series before losing the series. Can the 2005 Rockies match the success of the predecessors and again bring more than three million fans to Coors Field?

The answer, unfortunately for franchise’s fans, is almost certainly not. However, there is reason to hope. Unlike 2004 which started with retreads and aging veterans occupying a majority of the Rockies’ batting order and a large portion of the pitching staff, the Rockies are starting 2005 with a collection of rookies. The team’s marketing campaign heralds the coming of “Generation R,” a collection of players who will lead the Rockies to success in the future. Although competing in 2005 would of course be welcome by the team, it is more important as a season for determining if this group of players, most of who did not yet have to shave during the Blake Street Bombers’ heyday, is capable of leading a revival of Denver baseball.

Catcher: J.D. Closser

A switch-hitting twenty-five year old catcher acquired from the Diamondbacks, J.D. Closser has been handed the starting job by manager Clint Hurdle, barring a disastrous spring. Closser was called up to the Rockies for good on August 10th and started twenty-eight of the team’s final games, after spending most the season at Triple-A Colorado Springs. In his limited time—just one hundred twenty-four plate appearances—with the Rockies Closser hit .319/.364/.398, with an unfortunate strikeout to walk ratio of more than 3.5 to 1. Closser hit for more power and showed more patience at Colorado Springs, putting up a .299/.384/.440 line with a significantly more reasonable 1.1 to 1 K/BB ratio.

The Rockies concern with Closser then, is less centered on his offensive capacity and more around his defense. Closser threw out just five of twenty-four base stealers, and allowed stolen bases to notable speedster Jeff Kent and surrendered Jose Vizcaino’s only steal of 2004. Rockies’ bench coach and former catcher Jamie Quirk has been working with Closser to improve his skills but it seems that so long as Closser does the job with the stick the Rockies will live with the defense.

Competing for the chance to back up Closser are well-traveled veterans Todd Greene and Tom Wilson. Greene has the inside track—he served in the role last year—but if Clint Hurdle decides he prefers his back up backstop to be a defensive specialist, Wilson will probably win the job. Also in camp is Charles Johnson. Although rumors have swirled all winter that Johnson will be traded (with Pittsburgh and Tampa Bay listed as possible destinations) or flat-out released, Johnson may yet remain with the team. If that’s the case, he would probably serve as the third catcher, collecting nine million dollars from the Rockies while wasting away on the bench out of an evidently perverse sense of spite or nostalgia.

First Base: Todd Helton

Pass.

Just kidding. Helton, quite frankly, deserves better. He enters his eighth season as a Rockies’ regular, during the previous seven the team has never finished above fourth place and gone over .500 just once. Helton obviously benefits from the Coors’ effect, but has finished in the top ten in OPS+ four out of the last five years, while never playing fewer than one hundred fifty-four games. He has also won a Gold Glove three of those five years. Although at age thirty-one he is more likely to decline than improve, barring further aggravation of a back injury which has cost him a handful of games in various seasons, Helton is unlikely to fall off a cliff. Unfortunately for the one time University of Tennessee quarterback, his mammoth contract (which has one hundred twelve million remaining through 2011) makes him virtually unmovable and likely to suffer as “Gen R” experiences their growing pains. Ryan Shealy is the only other first baseman on the forty man roster, but he has not played above Double-A. If Helton is unable to play his usual hundred and fifty games, the Rockies would likely have to either go outside of the organization or perhaps use someone like Todd Greene who has limited experience at the position.

Second Base: Aaron Miles

Aaron Miles, not the 6”1’ point guard on Bill James’ beloved Kansas Jayhakws, but rather the 5’8” second baseman on the Rockies, is one of the few members of “Gen R” to have accumulated serious playing time last season. He hit .293/.329/.368, which is simply not a good enough offensive level for Colorado. Miles figures to improve in 2005, but unlike many of the Rockies “youth movement,” figures to be as good in 2005 as he ever will be; he is, after all, just a few years younger than Helton. Also of note is that Miles underwent minor right knee surgery in the off season and was listed as day-to-day after suffering a left knee sprain in a collision with Willie Harris. Although the injury is unlikely to be serious, if Miles is unable to play, “The Other” Luis Gonzalez, who saw the majority of the team’s non-Miles innings at second base in 2004, would likely step in. Gonzalez is just twenty-six, out hit Miles last season, and arguably deserves the job, but he is nonetheless penciled in as a reserve this year, based largely on his versatility.

Third Base: Garrett Atkins

Another member in good standing of “Gen R,” Atkins has the task of replacing your 2004 National League RBI Leader—and one time Blake Street Bomber—Vinny Castilla in 2005. Atkins won the Pacific Coast League batting title by hitting .366 in Colorado Springs, accompanying it with an impressive 1.012 OPS. Atkins has demonstrated a good eye at every level and impressed in a brief stint with the Rockies in September, and has developed more power as he aged—although playing in the high altitude his last couple of seasons couldn’t have hurt. While the third base job appears to be his for the moment, Atkins has to be looking over his shoulder. The Rockies have not only so far injury prone but nonetheless interesting Clemson product Jeff Baker who start the year at Double-A, but also first round pick Ian Stewart, who tops virtually all lists of Rockies’ prospects and is Baseball America’s number four prospect. If Atkins is to be a member of the next great Rockies’ team, he will likely do so either by putting up incredible numbers, Stewart and Baker flaming out or shifting to another position. Given Atkins reportedly reminds people of Ken Boyer at third base, insofar that no matter which of them you put at third base for the 2005 season, you’re getting a stiff, that third option is most likely.

Shortstop: Clint Barmes

Yet another card carrying member of “Gen R,” Barmes was a tenth round pick in 2000 who worked his way through the Rockies’ system, hitting for decent average (minor league lifetime .281) with ordinary walk and power totals, until he seemingly put it together last year at Colorado Springs hitting .328/.376/.505 and earning his second September call-up and the starting job this year. Barmes is replacing Royce Clayton who despite claims of a career revival was only marginally better in 2004 than he had been in 2003 and at age thirty-four had as much chance being on a Rockies’ World Series team as I did. Barmes then figures to be at most a lateral move, but if he can prove that his 2004 Colorado Springs numbers were for real, has a chance to be a decided improvement. Barmes has so far been saying all the right things in Spring Training and working with Rockies’ third base/infielder coach Mike Gallego to improve his defense. What could be said for Barmes is essentially true for all of the non-Helton infielders: If they exceed an expectation, that’s great. If they don’t, at least the infield is now sporting an average age of just over twenty-seven instead of just under thirty-two.

Left Field: Matt Holliday

Along with Aaron Miles, Holliday is the only member of the Rockies who is under thirty and saw regular action last year. Holliday had played all of 2003 at Double-A Tulsa and was scheduled to begin the season at Triple-A. However, when both Preston Wilson and Larry Walker went down with injuries, the Rockies required an outfielder and Holliday was their man. It was assumed Holliday was simply a temporary replacement, but although he started his Major League Career going 0-for-7 with a walk after his call-up in mid April, Holliday quickly turned it around and had a blazing rest of April, finishing the month at .375/.444/.675. This stretch likely convinced the Rockies that Holliday was ready for the big leagues and he kept the left field job for duration of the season.

Truthfully, Holliday probably needed more time in the minors; he finished the year at .290/.349/.488 (good for just a 98 OPS+ in Coors) but the numbers were inflated by Holliday’s strong beginning in April and strong finish in September when he hit .350/.372/.675. Holliday mixed those months with three (May, June and August) when he couldn’t a maintain a .320+ on-base percentage.

Holliday came to camp slimmed down and has announced his intentions to attempt to run more. This may be a questionable decision; Holliday stole just three of six bases last year, and fifteen of twenty-four at Double-A the season before, success percentages that a team playing in a high-offense environment can hardly afford to give up. Holiday is just twenty-five and therefore figures to improve, if he can combine hot months like April and September with more even performance throughout the year, Holliday has a good chance at being someone who can contribute to the Rockies’ in the future, if perhaps never a star.

Center Field: Preston Wilson

Along with Helton, of course, Wilson is the only veteran the Rockies will be sending on regularly in 2005. Wilson’s 2004 was marred by a knee injury and he appeared in just fifty-eight games, hitting well below his career marks and required two different knee surgeries. He has been taking it slow in the spring this year, having taken batting practice and participated in outfield drills, but not playing in early games. Wilson is in the last year of his contract and will rake in twelve million for the season. Even a return to his 1999 or 2003 form makes a new deal unlikely at those numbers, but if Wilson puts up solid numbers and stays healthy, he has a chance to increase his value this off-season. More towards the Rockies’ concerns, if Wilson is hitting and healthy in late July, they might try to send him to a contender looking for an outfield bat capable of handling centerfield. Given that it would largely be a salary dump, it is unlikely the Rockies would get much in return, but Wilson playing well for the Rockies until July and then heading to a contender would seem the best-case scenario for both parties. Should Wilson get traded (or suffer injury, but let’s be optimistic) his likely replacement would be amusingly named twenty-four year old Choo Freeman.

Right Field: Dustan Mohr

Mohr is just twenty-nine and his fifth season in the Majors. The first three he played in Minnesota, trying but failing to earn a full-time job and found himself in the same situation last season with the Giants. After the Giants non-tendered Mohr, he signed with the Rockies and has been handed the right field job, giving prospect Brad Hawpe a chance to develop further in Triple-A. Mohr has shown flashes of skills, and has the chance to use the Coors’ effect to his benefit this season in convincing people around baseball he is a viable regular. It is hard to say what Mohr will do if finally given five hundred at-bats, but the Rockies would be satisfied with league average production as he keeps the place warm for Hawpe, who has a chance to be up with the Rockies in September or before.

Bench

The Rockies bench is in many ways a reflection of their line-up, a couple of older players mixed with younger ones. The older players are whoever wins the back-up catcher job as discussed earlier and Desi Relaford brought in as insurance should Clint Barmes prove unable to handle the shortstop job. The younger players include “The Other” Luis Gonzalez who debatably deserves a starting job but is kept on the bench, in large part because he can play three infield positions and both corner outfield ones. Choo Freeman is scheduled to handle the centerfield duties should Preston Wilson be unable to do so. With the exception of Gonzalez, and possibly Freeman if any of the bench sees regular action, it is to the detriment of the Rockies both in 2005 and in the future.

Starters

Although typically associated with the First World War, the term “cannon-fodder” was probably developed with regards to American Civil War. It also has been used to refer to Rockies pitchers; apart from Joe Kennedy’s surprising performance last year, no Rockies starter has ever managed a full season ERA under four and the effect of moving to Coors had on pitchers like Mike Hampton and the late Darryl Kile is well known. This year, the Rockies have decided to make a go of things with “Gen R” as four of the five projected starters are products of the Rockies system, although in many cases that is where the similarities end. Joe Kennedy is the only man to come from another team’s system (the Devil Rays) and put together unquestionably his best season and arguably the best in Coors’ history in 2004, as he posted a 3.66 ERA (good for a 138 ERA+) in one-hundred sixty-two innings. Kennedy is unlikely to repeat the performance as his DIPS ERA for 2004 was 4.02 and Kennedy’s past performance suggests he is unlikely to match his 2004 number.

After Kennedy comes the Rockies’ Four, an eclectic mix of a touted prospect, a former Rookie of the Year, a failed closer and a nine-year veteran. The prospect is Jeff Francis, the Rockies other top prospect (along with Ian Stewart) who will be having his first season as a starter in the big leagues at age twenty-four, having dominated the minors putting up a 2.71 cumulative ERA in almost three hundred fifty innings, including a 2.85 at the Rockies’ Triple-A club in high altitude Colorado Springs. Francis has demonstrated exceptional control throughout his career, walking just 2.1 per nine innings throughout his time, while striking out ten per nine. Francis will hope to keep those numbers while at Coors, as keeping runners off base and the bat off the ball are essential skills for success in Denver. If the thin air does not trouble him too greatly, Francis figures to be a candidate for Rookie of the Year.

Of course, as Jason Jennings would be happy to tell him, winning the Rookie of the Year as a Rockies’ starter isn’t all its cracked up to be. Jennings won the award in 2002, going 16-8 with a 4.52 ERA. Since then however, Jennings has averaged fewer than twelve wins and posted a two-year ERA of 5.32, although he has been reliable pitching more than one hundred eighty innings each of his first three full seasons. Jennings is only twenty-six so the possibility for a return to 2002 form is, if not likely, at least more possible than it for, say Darren Oliver who in Rockies’ camp with a minor-league deal. Despite the high ERA, Jennings has been within striking distance league average the past two seasons, and if he can lower the ERA a bit, he could provide two-hundred innings of league average pitching. That may not win him any more awards, but for the Rockies it would more than suffice.

Shawn Chacon is just a year older than Jennings, but also a world apart. After three years as a moderately-to-not-at-all effective starter for the Rockies (which included a trip to the All-Star game in 2003 after a strong first half) he was converted to closer for the 2004 season. Put nicely, it was a train wreck. Chacon managed thirty-five saves, a remarkable statistic given his 7.11 ERA. The thirty-five saves are less impressive for Chacon having blown nine saves (for a save percentage of just seventy-nine) and finished the year 1-9. The Rockies attempted to trade Chacon in the off season but finding the market for relievers for 7+ ERAs to be (shocking!) soft, held on the Alaskan and moved him back into the starting rotation for 2005. If Chacon can repeat his 2003 performance, particularly the first half, he has a chance to be a valuable member of the rotation. If he more closely resembles his 2002 or 2004 form, this might be Chacon’s last season in the purple and black.

On the other hand, being shipped away from Colorado doesn’t mean you won’t someday return, a fact of which Jamey Wright is living proof. Wright debuted with the team in 1996 and started for the next four seasons before being sent to the Brewers as part of the three team trade that landed Jeff Cirillo with the Rockies. After pitching for the Brewers, Cardinals and Royals, Wright returned to the Rockies last season and started in all fourteen of his appearances, posting a 4.12 ERA. The Rockies are obviously hoping that Wright, as the team’s fifth starter, can repeat that performance but that seems like optimism at best and delusion at worse.

Bullpen

Despite having experienced the unique joys of Shawn Chacon at the end of games last season the Rockies will likely use another converted starter as their closer this year with Taiwanese pitcher Chin-hui Tsao as the closer. The twenty-four year old Tsao was the Rockies’ top prospect for many years but has been slowed by injuries and the team is hoping a move to the pen provides him with a chance to both shine and stay healthy. Oddly, Tsao’s slider, listed by some as his best pitch, is the odd pitch out when the righty pitches in relief, preferring to rely on his fastball and change-up. The bullpen as a whole in flux however, if Tsao does earn the closer’s job, it might fall to lefty Brian Fuentes. Fuentes was very effective out of the pen for the team in 2003 but struggled in 2004 and would likely have to recover his form of two years ago to win the job away. Other candidates include Japanese reliever Eddie Gaillard, who struggled in his first spring appearance and rookie Ryan Speier. The successful candidates for closer will likely make up the Rockies’ bullpen, along with righty Scott Dohmann, who hopes to find the form he had in July of last season when he allowed just one run thirteen appearances.

Overall

Ninety losses and a finish in the basement are possible for the Rockies, especially with the Dodgers, Padres and Giants all as reasonable playoff contenders and the Diamondbacks’ spending spree this off season. If the team’s rookies develop, and some of the younger veterans like Jennings and Miles find good form and take it into the future, the season could be considered a success.

2005 ZiPS Projections

Name          ERA   W   L   G  GS     INN    H   ER   BB    K  HR 
Fuentes*     4.10   4   3  67   0    68.0   59   31   34   78   6 
Francis*     4.18  13  10  29  29   170.0  163   79   56  173  23 
Lopez*       4.59   2   2  71   0    51.0   54   26   20   35   5 
Speier       4.66   3   2  59   0    58.0   53   30   33   60   6 
Kennedy*     4.72   9   8  29  27   164.0  178   86   57  108  19 
Cook         4.79   8   8  33  24   154.0  178   82   53   72  14 
Tsao         4.83   7   8  25  21   123.0  126   66   44  113  20 
Young        4.90   7   7  25  22   134.0  141   73   53  108  19 
Jennings     5.11  11  13  32  32   192.0  208  109   86  131  23 
Taylor       5.12   2   3  49   0    58.0   54   33   36   52   7 
Dohmann      5.19   3   4  55   2    78.0   78   45   33   81  15 
Simpson      5.38   3   5  54   0    72.0   67   43   53   77   8 
Oliver*      5.50   7  10  28  23   131.0  154   80   55   72  17 
Chacon       5.55   6   8  34  16   107.0  118   66   56   75  15 
Drew         5.64   5   9  33  20   134.0  164   84   52   56  17 
McClellan    5.70   5   8  28  23   128.0  145   81   56   92  23 
Cortes       5.73   0   1  11   0    11.0   12    7    7    8   1 
Wright       5.91   7  12  30  29   163.0  184  107   83  110  28 
Hampson*     5.98   8  12  27  27   164.0  189  109   81   93  28 
Narveson*    6.02   7  13  26  26   142.0  159   95   82   98  23 
Chavez       6.06   6  10  29  25   150.0  178  101   71  101  27 
Anderson     6.13   2   3  39   3    47.0   55   32   23   31   8 
Kent*        6.48   2   3  37   1    50.0   56   36   41   28   5 
Gilfillan    6.49   3   5  51   0    68.0   75   49   46   52  12 
Anderson     6.67   3   6  36  11    85.0  100   63   49   63  19 
Tollberg     6.67   5  10  24  21   116.0  153   86   26   64  35 
Chiasson     7.00   1   3  30   0    36.0   44   28   17   28  10 

Name         P    AVG   OBP   SLG   G  AB   H 2B 3B HR   R RBI  BB   K SB CS 
Helton*      1b  .344  .461  .605 158 569 196 49  3 31 116 104 124  75  2  2 
Atkins       3b  .322  .385  .473 141 510 164 33  1 14  96  71  50  63  1  3 
Wilson       cf  .279  .349  .503 127 481 134 31  1 25  75  83  49 114 11  8 
Miles#       2b  .312  .353  .417 144 573 179 30  3  8  85  59  35  55 12 10 
Hawpe*       1b  .289  .348  .544 124 425 123 23  2 27  72  77  36 117  4  3 
Shealy       1b  .290  .360  .507 124 428 124 26  2 21  79  69  44 112  1  1 
Barmes       ss  .295  .328  .444 144 567 167 38  1 15 101  66  24  76 14 12 
Holliday     lf  .285  .351  .446 132 491 140 28  3 15  83  64  46  91  6  6 
Sullivan*    lf  .295  .336  .410 140 566 167 34  5  7  94  57  32  80 12  9 
Tracy*       3b  .263  .322  .498 126 468 123 33  1 25  87  77  38 126  3  3 
Piedra*      cf  .301  .342  .502 124 428 129 29  3 17  79  59  24  69  4  4 
Closser#     c   .295  .364  .451 116 410 121 24  2 12  65  55  42  75  2  1 
Salazar*     lf  .250  .321  .392 136 505 126 22  4 14  74  52  50  71 19 11 
Garabito#    ss  .293  .344  .395 121 458 134 26  3  5  61  42  34  56 15 10 
Mohr         rf  .291  .377  .474 120 327  95 22  1 12  60  50  43  79  3  3 
Gonzalez     2b  .307  .355  .441 105 365 112 18  2  9  58  44  25  55  1  3 
Baker        3b  .290  .357  .483  92 321  93 21  1 13  64  48  31  95  2  1 
Freeman      cf  .262  .326  .398 133 432 113 18  4 11  77  48  38  97  6  8 
Relaford#    2b  .258  .332  .374 125 423 109 21  2  8  66  47  42  58  9  5 
Olson        3b  .276  .331  .398 110 384 106 20  0  9  73  54  30  79  5  5 
Amezaga#     ss  .278  .331  .381 119 396 110 20  3  5  61  38  29  66 11 10 
Miller       cf  .251  .339  .358 103 374  94 14  1  8  58  34  47  92 18 12 
Johnson      c   .230  .333  .428 105 313  72 20  0 14  39  45  47  83  1  2 
Taylor*      cf  .252  .303  .437 121 341  86 17  2 14  47  45  23  88 15 11 
Wilson       c   .249  .337  .396  80 217  54 11  0  7  28  29  27  64  0  0 
Norton#      3b  .223  .318  .366 104 238  53  8  1  8  37  27  33  59  2  1 
Greene       c   .262  .293  .476  71 210  55 12  0 11  25  32   9  43  0  0 
Ardoin       c   .231  .294  .364  72 247  57 13  1  6  31  28  20  68  0  2