Seattle Mariners

Did you ever have that dream where you're falling, like there's suddenly nothing to support you, and all you can do is wait to hit bottom? And then you wake up and realize you're still safe and snug in bed, except maybe your feet are sticking out from under the covers?

Well, if you have, then you should be able to relate to the 2002 Seattle Mariners. After what seemed like a massive late-season collapse, the Mariners still tied with the Boston Red Sox for the best record in the major leagues among non-playoff teams. They were still in contention until the final days of the season. And they did it in the toughest division in baseball.

So why did it seem like Seattle had such a terrible season? Because they were coming off two straight ALCS appearances, and 116 wins, and because they had such a great start that it looked like first place would belong to them all season. Instead, they struggled at the same time Oakland and Anaheim surged, and ended up in third place. But they had the best record of any third-place team, and were one of only two third-place teams with winning records (the other being the Dodgers).

And now it seems that the most important thing the Mariners do is nothing. In fact, GM Pat Gillick has become notorious for inaction, a reputation solidified both by the 2002 trading deadline and the subsequent offseason. It's important to remember that on the last trading deadline, Seattle was in first place by two games and also had the wild card as a safety net. Failing to make an acquisition more substantial than Doug Creek was justifiable at the time. But after a third place finish, there's less defense for such a quiet offseason.

Probably the most significant occurrence of this past winter for Seattle was the departure of longtime manager Lou Piniella, who presided over nearly all the success that the Mariners ever experienced. Lou spoke to the base-thrower in all of us. Now, new manager Bob Melvin will try to improve on Piniella's results. There's room to do so.

But what of the Mariner players themselves? What can we expect from them?

Catcher

Dan Wilson is a well-liked member of the organization with a good defensive reputation. And he may have had a career year in 2002, hitting .295 and posting an OPS+ of 98. However, not only will Wilson probably not be worth $7 million over the next two years, he probably could have been had for less. He's also strained his left side, so the season will be started by Ben Davis, who should get more playing time this year. Davis has a big advantage in his youth; he'll likely be superior offensively to Wilson in 2003.

First Base

John Olerud is consistent and good--not Rafael Palmeiro consistent and good, but close. He's never had an OPS+ below 110, and has played in over 150 games for the past six years. And his contract is for two years at only $15.4 million. In short, Olerud's an incredible bargain for a player with a .404 career on-base percentage. The Mariners deserve a lot of credit for getting this deal done way back in early December.

Second Base

Well, after the first half of 2002, it looked like Boone may have reverted from 2001's majestic, hitting eagle to a less-majestic, not-hitting albatross. However, Boone finished strong, very strong, and ended up with a 118 OPS+, making him one of the most productive second basemen in the league. In equation form: (118 OPS+) + (Good Defense at Second Base) = Worth $8 Million. We'll see if he keeps producing at that rate. If he stays close, his contract will look pretty good.

Shortstop

The non-tendering of Desi Relaford leaves Seattle without much of a viable option at shortstop if Carlos Guillen once again contracts tuberculosis or small pox or typhoid fever or some other disease people are only supposed to get in period films. Just in case, Edgar Martinez--always a gamer--is taking grounders at short. As for Guillen, he's entering his age-27 season, and is a respectable hitter for a shortstop. And this may be his last year as Seattle's starting shortstop, as intriguing options such as Kazuo Matsui wait on the horizon.

Third Base

Once, long ago, there was a mystical elf named David Bell. David Bell had magical fairy dust that allowed his teams to win 116 games or go to the World Series. The Mariners traded David Bell, thinking that they could keep his fairy dust.

They were wrong.

To replace the mystical elf named David Bell, Seattle saw that there were two options. One was the warrior Jeff Cirillo, who dwelt in a high mountain kingdom, where he was blessed with the divine magic of the Goddess Altitudia. When the warrior Cirillo was without her auspices, his power was greatly diminished.

The second option was the knight Scott Rolen, whose dexterity and strength were known throughout the land. However, King Wade of the Phillians demanded, as a ransom for the Knight Rolen, the crown prince of Seattle, Joel Piñeiro. Prince Joel was to be the King of the Mariners. So the Mariners gambled on Jeff Cirillo, betting that he could learn to thrive without the good grace of Altitudia.

They were wrong.

Now, the Mariners can either hope for Cirillo to return to the productive hitter he once was, or they can remove some of the air from Safeco Field. They are currently looking into the cost of 5000' stadium stilts.

Left Field

Randy Winn was delivered to Seattle from Tampa Bay in exchange for Lou Piniella, and some hope he marks the end of Seattle's long-standing tradition of having a big hole in left field. However, those expecting a big improvement in offense from left will likely be disappointed. Winn hit .298/.360/.461 last year, and has hit .279/.342/.400 over his career. Seattle leftfielders in 2002 hit .277/.365/.424--in pitcher-friendly Safeco Field. However, Winn will provide a substantial upgrade defensively.

Center Field

Mike Cameron, productive though he is on offense and defense, may be hurt more than the usual amount by playing in Safeco Field. Over the past three years, Cameron's posted a .917 OPS on the road and a .684 at home. He's hit 50 home runs on the road, and just 19 at home. So it's understandable that Seattle would consider trading him, though his status as a fan-favorite may deter them from doing so. He'd likely have more value elsewhere.

Right Field

Ichiro Suzuki's 2002 season was just about as good as his 2001 campaign, which culminated in an MVP award. He's responsible for the Mariners once again leading the major leagues in OBP from the leadoff spot; Seattle's OBP was .379 in that spot, far above second-place Toronto's .355. Ichiro increased his walk total from 30 to 68 between 2001 and 2002, resulting in his on-base percentage rising despite a fairly large drop in batting average. If Ichiro does nothing that he hasn't already, the Mariners should be ecstatic.

Designated Hitter

What can you say about Edgar Martinez? He's a fantastic hitter--the only question is if he can stay healthy. Martinez's contract was another offseason success for Seattle; they bought out his option and resigned him at a cut rate. The Mariners have been shortchanging Edgar for a long time.

The Starting Rotation

Seattle's starting rotation looks like it will include Freddy Garcia, Jamie Moyer, Joel Piñeiro, Ryan Franklin, and Gil Meche. Garcia had a disappointing 2002, after he looked Cy Young-worthy in 2001. However, most of his trouble came from an increased batting average allowed on balls in play and a high home run rate--his strikeout and walk rates were improved. Look for Garcia's 2003 to be much better than his 2002. The contentious nature of his arbitration hearing doesn't bode well for his future with the team, however.

Jamie Moyer negotiated his own option-laden contract, and it appears to be a good one for both him and the Mariners. While a three-year deal for a 40-year-old is of course risky, Moyer has been very good recently and the contract is very reasonable. This was an excellent deal for the Mariners, who had a surprising degree of success retaining their major free agents at good prices.

Joel Piñeiro still shows a great deal of promise, and has already delivered superb results. He's just 24, and he could be the eventual ace of the staff. Ryan Franklin has pitched well the past two years, and deserves the fourth spot. And Gil Meche, back from protracted injury problems, will hope to repeat the success he had in 1999 and 2000. Still, a rotation with this much youth and inexperience would have been well-served to keep the capable swing man they had in John Halama.

The Bullpen

Seattle should have a good bullpen in 2003, led again by Kazuhiro Sasaki, Arthur Rhodes, and Jeff Nelson. Shigetoshi Hasegawa will also have a place. The remaining spots are up for grabs between right-handers Rafael Soriano, J.J. Putz, Ken Cloude, and Julio Mateo. The release of the injured Norm Charlton basically ensures that Rhodes will be the only left-hander in the bullpen.

The Bench

The acquisition of Greg Colbrunn was a terrific one for a Seattle team that had a great deal of trouble pinch-hitting in 2002. Mariner pinch-hitters hit .208 with an OPS of .510 last year. If Colbrunn approaches his recent production in 2003, the Mariners will see huge improvement from their bench.

The Mariners also acquired John Mabry, who hit fairly well with Oakland last year, but even the deepest abysses in Mabry's career aren't as bad as Seattle's 2002 pinch hitters, so Mabry should be an improvement anyway. Willie Bloomquist also might be expected to make the team based partly on his success at the end of last year. And Mark McLemore will continue to provide Seattle with some versatility, particularly if he keeps up his strange late-in-life surge in offensive production.

There are still three competing teams in the AL West, and they're close enough in talent that they could conceivably finish in any order. However, the Mariners are getting older on offense, and may have a tougher road ahead of them than their competition--particularly last year's division champion, the Oakland Athletics. Still, there's no reason at this point to dismiss any of the three, as we prepare for what should be another exciting race to win the AL West.

2003 ZiPS Projections - Click for info

PO    Player        G  AB   R   H 2B 3B HR RBI BB  SO SB CS   BA  OBP  SLG
C     Wilson      113 347  36  94 17  1  7  39 19  72  2  1 .271 .312 .386
1B    Olerud      155 556  82 162 40  0 19  96 96  73  1  1 .291 .400 .466
2B    Boone       150 584  89 167 34  2 26 108 48 103  8  7 .286 .347 .485
3B    Cirillo     146 524  56 133 27  1  8  60 43  67  7  5 .254 .319 .355
SS    Guillen     133 453  70 120 22  5  8  54 48  84  4  3 .265 .337 .389
LF    Winn        145 548  73 150 30  7 10  60 55  97 22  9 .274 .346 .409
CF    Cameron     157 549  90 139 28  4 24  88 78 160 29  8 .253 .355 .450
RF    Suzuki      159 671 117 225 30  8  8  58 55  58 41 15 .335 .391 .440
DH    Martinez    119 420  62 120 32  0 20  90 77  83  2  1 .286 .404 .505
c     Davis       108 336  40  84 14  0 10  49 44  82  3  2 .250 .342 .381
c     Borders      88 300  29  64 14  1  6  23 11  58  2  3 .213 .248 .327
1b-of Mabry       101 203  25  50 12  0  8  34 15  49  0  1 .246 .305 .424
1b    Colbrunn     86 217  28  62 16  1  9  31 23  28  0  1 .286 .366 .493
if    Bloomquist  123 424  55 109 17  2  2  36 29  52 19  8 .257 .311 .321
if    Ugueto      113 312  41  76  8  3  2  28 28  81 14  5 .244 .313 .308
ut    McLemore    116 384  60  98 20  3  5  43 65  73 23 14 .255 .364 .362
of    Snelling     90 339  46  91 13  6  5  37 33  51  7  3 .268 .339 .386

PO Player     W  L  ERA  G GS  IP   H ER HR BB  SO
SP Garcia    12 11 3.88 32 32 211 197 91 21 61 169
SP Moyer     11 12 4.45 32 32 200 212 99 26 49 125
SP Pineiro   10  9 3.86 36 25 175 164 75 17 50 138
SP Franklin   5  7 4.61 37 13 121 127 62 20 27  83
SP Meche      4  6 5.00 23 16  81  75 45 10 43  69
SP Soriano    4  6 4.66 22 20 110  99 57 16 50 107
RP Mateo      4  4 3.95 49  0  66  60 29  8 20  59
RP Hasegawa   6  8 4.68 56  0  73  74 38  6 31  45
RP Nelson     4  4 4.03 61  0  58  41 26  3 39  71
RP Rhodes     9  3 2.65 69  0  68  51 20  5 16  81
CL Sasaki     4  3 3.54 64  0  61  49 24  7 20  70
ZiPS is not a playing time predictor and should not be added for team totals.