St. Louis Cardinals

2002 Record 97-65

2002 Pythag. Record 95-67

2002 Runs Scored 787 (2nd)

2002 Runs Allowed 648 (4th)

Seldom has a team with so many questions been so highly regarded going into a season. The St. Louis Cardinals are widely considered a favorite (along with the Houston Astros) for another NL Central Division Title. They were second in the NL in runs scored last season, despite two black holes (Martinez and Matheny) in the lineup, and a leadoff man (Vina) who didn’t get on base enough, then ran into too many outs when he did. But their top hitters (Pujols, Edmonds, Rolen, a healthy Drew) are among the best in the league.

The Cardinals’ pitching is shot through with potential holes after Matt Morris. But nobody does a better job of plugging holes in a leaky pitching staff than coach Dave Duncan. He’ll have plenty of opportunities to plug away all season, with a suspect starting rotation and a bullpen full of question marks. If just some of those questions get answered positively, the Cardinals should have enough hitting and defense to repeat their trip to the postseason, and even make a run to the World Series. But it’s a high-risk, high-reward roster as the season starts, and the potential also exists for these Cardinals to fall well short of expectations, missing the playoffs altogether.

The St. Louis media is fond of pointing out that Albert Pujols is the only player in MLB history to hit .300 with 30 HR’s, 100 runs scored, and 100 RBI’s in each of his first two seasons. Based on those numbers, you might get the impression that Pujols’ first two seasons are the best ever. But compare him to a young Joe DiMaggio.

Joe DiMaggio
Yr    HR   RBI   Runs   BA
1936  29   125   132  .323
1937  46   167   151  .346
Total 75   292   283  .335

Albert Pujols
Yr    HR   RBI   Runs   BA
2001  37   130   112  .329
2002  34   127   118  .314
Total 71   257   230  .321  

DiMaggio lacked only a single home run in 1936 to meet the same criteria as Pujols, and he was significantly better in the other categories. Given that, DiMaggio, not Pujols, had the best 2-year start in history. Still, it’s very good news for the Cardinals that Pujols is not too far behind at the plate.

People have questioned Pujols’ age, but there are two things to point out.

1. Pujols graduated from high school in Kansas City, so even if he’s fudging his age, he’s been in the U.S. since his teenage years. It’s presumably harder for a 20-year-old to pass for an 17-year old, than it is for a 24-year-old to pass for a 21-year-old.
2. Even if his age were faked, that would make him 24 or 25, instead of 22. That’s young enough that he should continue to improve for a few more years. Even if he doesn’t improve at all, he’s a fine player now.

Most St. Louis fans will tell you Jim Edmonds is one of the best center fielders in baseball. When you ask why, they’ll point to his fielding—including three Gold Glove awards in three seasons with St. Louis. Those fans are right, but for the wrong reason.

Edmonds is an outstanding hitter. His .981 OPS last year was the 2nd best among NL center fielders, trailing only Lance Berkman, who’s been moved to left field this season. He’s also been durable after previous injury troubles, playing at least 144 games in all three seasons in St. Louis. But despite his Gold Glove reputation, and his regular appearance on highlight reels, Edmonds doesn’t get to a lot more balls than other CF’s.

Our understanding of defensive statistics is far from perfect. But a statistic called "Ultimate Zone Rating," developed by Michael Lichtman, is a step in the right direction. UZR divides the field into 89 zones, and measures whether a fielder turns balls in those zones into outs. That measurement is used to determine how many runs a fielder saves, compared to other fielders, over the course of a season. UZR gives us a decent idea of how well a fielder does his job of getting to balls in play and turning them into outs. And from 1999-2001, Jim Edmonds was just about average. In fact, over the three seasons, Edmonds saved two fewer runs than the league average. That’s not to say Edmonds is a bad fielder. He holds his own one of the most challenging defensive positions, so he’s valuable defensively. But his bat is much more valuable than his glove, regardless of what you see on SportsCenter.

Edmonds has struggled with a calf injury this spring. He has started the season at half-speed, but is on the roster, not on the shelf. Tony LaRussa says he might even put Edmonds in right field to give his injury more time to heal without the demands of playing in center.

The following letter is posted at one of J.D. Drew’s Internet fan pages:

Surprisingly, this letter was written by a 43-year-old father of three in St. Louis, just after J.D. Drew came to the Cardinals. Ha! Of course we jest. But it might have been, after Drew homered five times in his first 36 major league at bats.

The honeymoon is over for Drew, though, after he was labeled a superstar-in-the-making. He has been often injured, and local media hint at his "lack of desire," ignoring the fact that in 2002, he played through the same injury (patellar tendinitis) that sapped Mark McGwire’s power in his final season. Drew will be out for the first several weeks of the season as he recovers from off-season surgeries on his knee and foot. The Cardinals have acquired some Plan-B outfielders to fill the gap, hoping to get by until Drew returns. If the knee surgery allows him to get his power back, look for Drew to have a big year upon his return. There’s nothing in his history to indicate he’ll fail to hit when healthy. And according to UZR, Drew is about 13 runs-per-season better than average defensively in RF over the past three years. If last year’s hiccup was caused solely by the injured knee, he could be one of the top RF’s in the National League when he returns.

If you ever ask a general manager about the talents of a player, and you get a response about the player’s role as a "clubhouse leader" and a "clutch performer," bells and buzzers should go off in your head, and the little devil on your shoulder should whisper the runs-created formula in your ear.

And so we come to Tino Martinez, the quintessential "clubhouse leader" and "clutch performer. Martinez is a pretty good defensive player at a position where defense isn’t nearly as important as offense. He’s in the second year of a $21-million, 3-year contract. His OPS against lefties is .636. And he’ll be 35 years old this season, which means he’s unlikely to do as well this year as last.

For most of 2002, the Cardinals’ brass pushed aside questions about Martinez’s offensive production by saying he was adjusting to the new league. When his production ticked up, ever so slightly, in the last half of the season, the Cardinals said it was "Tino’s time of year." His second half was better than his first half. His OPS after the All-Star break was .808. That’s the same OPS as Mo Vaughn for the entire season, and Vaughn wasn’t exactly praised for his outstanding production.

There’s no sign the Cardinals are ready to abandon Martinez, or even platoon him. It’s not like the Cardinals don’t have better options. Eduardo Perez had an OPS of .997 against lefthanders last year. Using him in a platoon with Martinez would be a boost to the Cardinals’ already-good offense. If Martinez starts slowly again, St. Louis fans might finally turn on him (there were signs of that during his 2-for-25 postseason), prompting LaRussa to make a change.

Did you know Fernando Vina has his very own line of salsa? Neither did we, but Google is an amazing thing. Perhaps we were not aware of Vina’s venture into the condiment business because his product is known as "Fernando’s Secret Salsa." Some might question the business acumen of a man who would keep the existence of his product a secret from the public, but let us not dwell on the unknowable.

A much bigger secret among St. Louis fans is that Vina is not a very good offensive player, and doesn’t figure to get much better. The Cardinals insisted on batting him at the top of the order despite his league-average OBP of .333, down 50 points in the last two seasons. He stole 17 bases, but was thrown out 11 times, for a net loss to the offense. Even La Russa has said Vina doesn’t realize how slow he is.

The bad news for St. Louis is that Vina doesn’t have much of a chance to get any better at age 34. Of his five most similar batters, three were done playing full-time at his age, and two are still playing, but not getting any better (they’re Mark Grudzielanek and Tony Womack). St. Louis fans must hope Vina’s 2002 was a blip, not the start of a downward trend.

Still, Vina is a good defensive player, and his bat is good enough that he’s not a black hole in the St. Louis lineup. If LaRussa would move him down in the order, where his poor baserunning and lack of on-base skills would be minimized, the Cardinals would be better off.

If Edgar Renteria played in a different time, he’d be much closer to stardom. Renteria is already a star in his home country of Colombia, by far the best Colombian to reach the big leagues. He won a World Series with a Game 7 base hit for the Florida Marlins in 1997. His most-comparable player through age 26 is Alan Trammell. And he’s probably just entering the peak years of his career. But Renteria plays in an era that includes some of the best shortstops ever, so he’s largely overlooked.

Renteria’s OPS last year was .803, second among NL shortstops with at least 400 at bats. He got on base more than 36% of the time, 3rd best on the team. He deserves to bat at the top of the order, but was buried in the #6 or #7 spot by Tony LaRussa for most of last season. LaRussa could do a much better job setting the table for his big boppers if he would swap Renteria and Vina in the order when Drew returns, but that’s not likely to happen.

Renteria’s defense is okay. He’s a touch above average, according to UZR, and with Scott Rolen at 3B, a steady presence at SS is all the Cardinals really need.

Scott Rolen’s .860 OPS ranks him first among starters offensively. His defense is the best in the league by a bunch of measures, including Ultimate Zone Rating and Tom Tippett’s Diamond Mind ratings. Tippett says Rolen was the NL Defensive Player of the Year in each of the last two seasons. He’s the best third baseman in baseball, and when he joined the lineup at the end of last season, the Cardinals’ offense really started clicking. St. Louis scored 4.75 runs per game before Rolen arrived. They scored 5.05 runs per game afterward.

Rolen’s critics say he’s brittle and likely to get hurt, but like Jim Edmonds, he seems to have put his chronic injury trouble behind him. Rolen has played 150+ games in each of the last two years, and in four of his six full big-league seasons. A full year of Rolen figures to make a big difference offensively and defensively for St. Louis. It also will allow Albert Pujols to play left field full time, getting more comfortable with the position and perhaps improving his defense there.

In the Harry Potter books, polite wizards do not utter the name of the evil Lord Voldemort, choosing to call him "He-Who-Must-Not-Be-Named." All societies should have such limits on polite discourse, and so we choose to avoid an analysis of Mike Matheny’s contributions on the baseball field.

Instead, a fun quiz! Matheny’s three most-similar players through age 31 are Rick Cerone, Fred Kendall and Mike Fitzgerald. Unfortunately, however, this list considers on-field performance only. Here are three other suggested comps for Matheny:

Player #1 Cut finger while buttering roll
Player #2 Cut self on shards of glass after arachnaphobic nightmare.
Player #3 Cut hand on electric fan after national humiliation

First one to name these three players wins a roster spot as a role-playing veteran on the Cardinals bench. *

Eli Marrero is listed as a backup, but he’ll start the season in the starting lineup, filling in for J.D. Drew in right field. Marrero will also serve as the backup catcher for Mike Matheny, as Tony LaRussa goes with only two catchers, making his bench more flexible than last year’s.

Best-case scenario for St. Louis fans: Marrero hits so well during Drew’s absence, he forces LaRussa to put him behind the plate full-time, sending Matheny and his anemic bat to the bench.

Worst-case scenario for St. Louis fans: Marrero hits moderately well during Drew’s absence, prompting La Russa to platoon him with Drew. This would have the two-fold disadvantage of keeping Drew out of the lineup every day, and keeping Marrero in the outfield, where his bat is relatively less valuable than at catcher.

Miguel Cairo and Eduardo Perez are likely to get the bulk of the pinch-hitting duties. Perez would make a nice complement to Tino Martinez at 1B, but is unlikely to see much of that role, at least early in the season. Cairo is just the kind of player Tony La Russa likes on his bench. He can play several positions, both infield and outfield, and can’t hit (2002 OPS - .660).

Orlando Palmeiro will get some play in the outfield after coming over from the Angels in the off-season. Wilson Delgado will serve as an infield insurance policy, as the only player capable of playing shortstop if Renteria goes down. Kerry Robinson will fill the final bench spot for the time being, despite Taguchi previously being favored to stay with the Cardinals after a solid spring.

Matt Morris is the kind of ace every rotation wants. Last year was his worst year, statistically, and his ERA was still 14% better than the league average, when adjusted for the park he plays in. He’s 27 years old, and seems to have left previous arm injuries behind him. Morris is the only pitcher in the starting rotation that the Cardinals can count on.

When making the case that Dave Duncan is a key to the Cardinals’ recent success, Woody Williams is Exhibit One. Before coming to the Cardinals, Williams had never posted an ERA better than 3.64. Since arriving in St. Louis, he has posted ERA’s of 2.28 and 2.53. But he pitched only 103 innings last season, spent two extended periods on the disabled list, and he’s 36 years old. If Williams stays healthy and pitches well again, the Cardinals will have a pretty good 1-2 punch at the top of the rotation.

Can Brett Tomko be the new Woody Williams? The Cardinals hope so. He hasn’t posted an ERA+ better than league average since his rookie season in 1997. At age 30, there’s plenty of time for Duncan to work his magic. Tomko’s 3.51 ERA this spring might not mean much, but it was enough to earn him a spot in the rotation.

Coming into the spring, Garrett Stephenson was one of a handful of pitchers with a shot at a starting role. His 3.12 ERA in the spring pushed him ahead of other candidates. But like so many of the Cardinals’ other pitchers, his health is a concern.

Jason Simontacchi gets no respect. He pitched his way onto the starting rotation last season, stayed there with his performance, then had to earn his way back into the rotation again this spring. But Simontacchi seems to have taken very good advantage of the Cardinals’ outstanding defense last season. His ERA was 4.02, not much higher than league average. But his defense-independent ERA was 5.14, indicating he might come down to earth at any moment.

An injury to Jason Isringhausen has thrown the Cardinals’ bullpen into disarray to start the season. Isringhausen seemed to be recovering well from off-season shoulder surgery when he reported some pain in the shoulder during spring training. Manager Tony LaRussa says the team won’t take any chances in rushing Isringhausen back.

LaRussa is the mastermind behind modern bullpen usage, relying heavily on his closer, when possible, to get the last three outs in every save situation. Without Isringhausen, LaRussa has two options—move every reliever up a spot in the hierarchy, or become more flexible in his bullpen management. So far, LaRussa has indicated he’ll choose option No. 2, using pitchers in whatever role makes sense at a particular time. As soon as Isringhausen returns, though, pitchers are likely to settle back into their set roles, and if you’re going to have an inflexible bullpen, Isringhausen is a good guy to have as the anchor.

Team, schmeam. Baseball’s a lot more than wins and losses, and sometimes we like to entertain ourselves with musings about individual accomplishments. Barry Bonds has removed a lot of the fun from the NL MVP debate lately, what with his inconsiderate domination and all. So we’re left to argue about other issues, like "Who’s the second-best player in the league?" Or "Which second baseman plays the best defense?" Or "Who has the filthiest headwear in the NL Central?"

On the last question, it is clearly a two-man race. After years of domination, Craig Biggio and his disgusting batting helmet recently have been challenged by Steve Kline and his dirty hat. Both wear headgear so dirty, the logo is obscured. Both claim some superstitious motivation for their lack of hygiene. Biggio has been at it much longer than Kline—give him the edge in career value. But Kline’s disgusting hat has garnered much more attention recently, even resulting in a "Steve Kline Hat" giveaway at Busch Stadium. Give him the edge in peak value. Only time will tell whether Biggio’s move to the outfield, away from the infield dirt, will further cut into his Filth Factor, allowing Kline to continue his recent domination.

Kline is likely to get most of the save opportunities while Isringhausen is out. He’s a solid setup man when given that role, although defense-independent statistics indicate he might not be quite as good as his ERA indicated last year.

The rest of the Cardinals’ bullpen is a hodgepodge of former starters and suspect relievers who will rely heavily on Dave Duncan’s tutelage to return to form. Lefty Jeff Fassero briefly turned around his career decline when he arrived in St. Louis at mid-season last year. The situational value of the team’s other lefty, Lance Painter, is suspect. Left-handed batters (OPS .941) actually hit him harder than right-handers (Batter OPS .747).

From the right side, Cal Eldred, Dustin Hermanson, Russ Springer and Kiko Calero will be called on to eat some innings. Eldred was hurt most of last year, and before that, had been below-average in three of the previous four seasons. Hermanson hasn’t had a good year since 1999 in Montreal. Springer has been in the big leagues since 1991, and enjoyed one really good season (Atlanta, 1999). Calero was slated for Triple-A before Isringhausen got hurt, and isn’t likely to see a ton of action in key situations.

After Morris, the Cards’ pitching relies on quantity, not quality. They have several backup plans, but it’s not clear whether those will come through, if needed. Rick Ankiel is in Double-A, hoping for an eventual return to the big leagues. Chuck Finley is still unsigned, and there are rumblings that he’ll return to St. Louis when he can re-sign after May 1. Chris Carpenter is injured, but due back at midseason. The Cardinals hope he can provide a lift to the pitching staff, in place of a midseason trade.

The Cardinals’ offense is formidable, and when Drew returns, it will get even better. After Morris, the pitching is wobbly. If Williams stays healthy, if Stephenson stays healthy, if Tomko improves, if Simontacchi continues to perform better than his DIPS numbers, if Isringhausen returns strong… whew, that’s a lot of "ifs." But if just a few of those things happen, the Cards’ hitting and defense is strong enough to carry the team to a division title. Don’t look for another 97-win season, but with some reasonably good luck, the Cardinals should push their win total into the 90s again, and that’s probably enough to get them into the playoffs. From there, anything can happen.

Okay, "The Genius" is no genius. But wringing 97 wins out of last year’s team was a pretty good accomplishment. Yes, he over-manages his bullpen and he has a penchant for keeping around old, bad hitters who can play multiple positions. But he’s employing only two catchers this year, and he ultimately is responsible for the continued presence of pitching coach Dave Duncan. He’ll never be Whitey Herzog-popular in St. Louis, but the more the Cardinals win, the fewer the calls for a return to Whitey-Ball.

* Quiz answers: Player 1, Oddibe McDowell; Player 2, Glenallen Hill; Player 3, John Tudor

2003 ZiPS Projections - Click for info

PO   Player       G  AB   R   H 2B 3B HR RBI BB  SO SB CS   BA  OBP  SLG
C    Matheny    118 360  36  86 15  1  5  39 31  68  0  2 .239 .305 .328
1B   Martinez   151 543  68 140 30  2 21  85 51  77  2  2 .258 .325 .436
2B   Vina       145 597  78 166 30  5  4  49 38  35 13 13 .278 .343 .365
3B   Rolen      152 566  93 159 29  6 32 107 72 109 11  4 .281 .371 .523
SS   Renteria   151 544  76 160 31  2 13  76 52  65 21  7 .294 .359 .430
LF   Pujols     162 602 126 201 38  3 40 139 74  77  2  3 .334 .415 .606
CF   Edmonds    148 494 100 148 33  1 30  94 92 141  5  5 .300 .416 .553
RF   Drew       130 415  70 118 19  2 22  62 62  94 12  4 .284 .386 .499
c    Girardi     89 261  27  61 13  1  3  23 21  46  1  0 .245 .303 .337
c    Torrealba   77 242  27  58 13  0  5  22 23  44  0  0 .240 .312 .355
c/of Marrero    117 337  54  89 16  1 15  53 33  60 12  2 .264 .330 .451
1b   Perez       91 231  34  55 11  1 11  37 26  51  3  2 .238 .322 .437
if   Cairo      110 247  35  64 12  2  2  25 20  32 11  3 .259 .320 .348
if   Delgado     90 309  25  73 14  1  5  26 17  51  2  4 .236 .284 .337
if   Nieves      79 231  35  62 10  3  7  24  8  41  3  4 .268 .300 .429
of   Palmeiro   107 247  31  67 13  1  1  25 30  22  5  4 .271 .356 .344
of   Robinson   121 274  43  78 10  4  1  19 21  31 14  8 .285 .342 .361
of   Taguchi    125 428  53  96 31  1  5  35 29  76  5  5 .224 .280 .336

PO Player         W  L  ERA  G GS  IP   H  ER HR BB  SO
SP Morris        16 10 3.33 33 31 203 180  75 13 53 174
SP Williams       8 11 4.58 26 26 171 172  87 27 50 137
SP Tomko          7 10 5.07 30 25 165 177  93 26 55 106
SP Stephenson     7 10 4.90 25 23 145 153  79 21 48  95
SP Eldred         4  6 5.25 19 17  96  91  56 13 56  84
SP Simontacchi    9 12 4.83 31 26 164 179  88 22 47  90
SP Carpenter      8 11 4.89 30 27 173 173  94 23 72 129
RP Springer       1  3 5.44 45  0  48  45  29  8 27  47
RP Painter        1  1 5.43 35  1  53  55  32  9 23  40
RP Stechschulte   2  4 5.40 56  0  60  62  36  9 28  42
RP Hermansen      9 15 5.26 34 29 178 194 104 27 66 105
RP Fassero        5  8 4.73 62  9  97  95  51 12 41  78
RP Crudale        5  3 3.60 56  0  65  57  26  7 19  63
RP Kline          3  2 3.73 79  0  70  65  29  4 24  54
CL Isringhausen   5  2 3.04 63  0  68  53  23  3 25  72
ZiPS is not a playing time predictor and should not be added for team totals.