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Looking Forward to ...
— BTF's Preseason Previews

Monday, March 14, 2005

Detroit Tigers Preview

Looking back:

The Tigers had been utterly wretched in 2003. One thing that was absolutely clear was that they wanted substantial improvement and were willing to pay the going rate (or even beyond it) if that was what was required to cover up significant problems.

By and large, it worked out pretty well. I figured 65 wins was a reasonable target and they blew right past that number. It's worth noting that they only allowed 17 more runs than they scored last year. In other words, they should be evaluated as a 79-win team.

Now what? Again, the desire to field a good team is evident in the off-season moves. I can't say I love any of the moves they made, but I do approve of the intent.

I expect the Tigers to be at or around .500. Doesn't sound like much, but most teams that improve massively are unable to hold onto their gains. The Tigers on the other hand rate to take another significant step forward -- even though I've betting that several key performers of 2004 won't be able to hold the level that they played at in 2004.

I suspect that The Tigers will view an 82 win season (my best guess) as a disappointment. It's not really hard to come up with a scenario that sees them winning in the low 90s; it just takes the best-case scenario coming to pass for a couple of key performers and little or nothing going wrong.

I honestly hope it works out that way even if I don't expect it. Baseball needs more organizations that are hungry to win rather than hoping to fluke into something.

Offensive overview

(for an explanation see the Blue Jays article)

Tigers by position, 2004
Pos	BA	OBP	SLG	POPS+	ZR
C	.308	.357	.481	136	
1B	.249	.342	.466	112	14
2B	.249	.307	.400	105	20
3B	.260	.323	.461	105	30
SS	.308	.366	.533	149	16
LF	.290	.347	.488	118	1
CF	.299	.333	.412	102	4
RF	.244	.335	.397	96	1
DH	.254	.325	.443	103	
Before going through position by position, let me summarize by saying that I think it likely that the Tigers will decline by about 30 runs offensively.

It could be better. Indeed, a best-case scenario will see a significant improvement in the offense. It's just that there are significant concerns related to either health, true level of ability or both at three positions with no position really likely to be an offsetting pleasant surprise. (OK, maybe Ordonez -- the Tigers are assuming he's healthy though I don't see it as a given)

Catcher: Ivan Rodriguez

Had perhaps his best year (taking playing time into account) so the happiest result here is that Rodriguez is healthy and slips a tad to his established level of talent. To be clear, he's a huge positive even if he does slip a bit.

A year ago, I raised the issue of his age and ability to handle a heavy workload. What can I say? Great players are great in no small part because they tend to age better than most players.

Still, I took a look at how the best hitting catchers in history played at ages 32 and 33 and what I found was quite interesting. As a group they hit almost exactly as well at 33 as they did at 32. Basically walks were slightly up to compensate for a slight decline in batting average.

But as a group, they only caught about 75% as many games. And that might understate the defensive decline since Gary Carter was playing regularly but basically lost his arm.

Now, IRod is a good enough hitter that he could be used at other positions if it was necessary. But since it may push a pretty decent hitter out of the lineup, the Tigers don't gain much. One thing that they can do to spell him occasionally is move Young to third, Inge to catcher and DH Rodriguez. I doubt they'll do so often though. It's a sensible move for a day game after a night game.

I think most of the time Rodriguez isn't catching though we'll see Vance Wilson. While Wilson's a capable enough backup, the Tigers are best served in not seeing him in the lineup much.

Chris Shelton is the most interesting option. I think there's a chance he could do a good job if pressed into service. He's still kind of raw, but he rates to be a pretty good hitter for a catcher (even if I do make it odds against that he'll hit enough to help a lot at first or DH). Think Matt Nokes -- albeit in a different package.

Overall, I've got the position down for a 10-run decline, mostly due to Rodriguez playing both a little less and a little less well. This should still be among the strongest positions in the game as long as Rodriguez gets the bulk of the playing time.

Fist Base: Carlos Pena

I think it's time to accept that this is Carlos Pena. There's nothing wrong with being basically league average even if an awful lot of people expected more. He's young enough that he could still become an impact player but he's not a good bet for massive improvement. And if you look at the list of most similar players at baseball-reference, well it's not an inspiring group. (Of course they'd settle for Andre Thornton or David Ortiz's 27, though Ortiz isn't a great comp)

Most people reading this will have heard that in general players peak around 27. That's widely misunderstood to mean that most 26-year olds will improve.

In fact, 26 year olds who are playing regularly are about as likely to decline as to improve. As a group they play almost exactly as well at 26 as at 27.

There are however a fair number more guys playing regularly at 27 than there are at 26. All that to say that there's nothing magic about 27. Hell, the second most-common age for a peak season is 26 and those guys by definition can't improve at 27.

The backup situation is adequate too. In effect, if Pena were to go down for an extended period of time the bulk of the playing time would probably go to Craig Monroe (with Dmitri Young actually playing first) and Monroe can play. I wouldn't be at all surprised to find some kind of semi platoon arrangement arising. Young seems to be adequate defensively and Monroe rates to outhit Pena by a fair margin against lefthanded pitching. Of course Monroe may have another gig, given the health concerns of Tiger outfielders.

Overall, I'd expect Pena and the position to be about the same in 2005 as it was in 2004. There is the possibility of a big upside even if it's a long shot and I'd be surprised if the position turns into a weak spot.

Second Base: Omar Infante

They paid a bunch of money to improve what had been a significant weakness. I didn't get it then and what happened in 2004 shows why.

Vina couldn't go so they had to use Omar Infante. He worked for meal money and gave them spitting distance of Vina's best case.

Frankly, I think Infante's bat was better than they had any right to expect from Vina. Of course, part of Vina's package was his glove and it seems as though Infante was a fair ways away from what they'd hoped to get from Vina. Still, Infante's 2004 is the simplest case that signing mid-range free agents is in general a mistake.

Looking forward, well, Infante is young. He's demonstrated that he's good enough to merit a regular spot. I doubt that he'll ever be significantly better, but you never know. The second most similar player to him through age 22 is Dick McAuliffe and he was a heck of a player (and actually not all that similar once you adjust for the different offensive contexts)

I expect the Tigers to get roughly the same production from the position in 2005 as they did in 2004.

Third Base: Brandon Inge

Inge played pretty well last year. Far better than I'd expected. There is still one big problem with making him a regular - he still hasn't really hit right-handed pitching and that's a pretty serious weakness for a regular player (.258/.308/.400 last year against right-handed pitching)

I think there's a good chance that Inge simply won't be able to handle the position and the fallback positions are kind of dicey. Dmitri Young can hit enough to be an asset. However, there is the issue of his glove. (Not that this is likely to scare the Tigers. After Dean Palmer you can forgive an awful lot)

The other options are probably less palatable. In effect the Tigers are looking at a backup middle infielder. Probably Ramon Martinez. Or maybe an emergency pickup from AAA. Somebody like Greg Norton. Come to think of it, Don Wert probably doesn't have any plans at the moment.

This is the position to watch. I've got the position down for a 15-run decline offensively. Could be a heck of a lot worse.

Yes, Inge could play well. I haven't studied the matter systematically but most everybody can name a few guys who have hit significantly better after they switched from catching (or went to catching part time)

The 15-run decline is kind of a compromise between the various scenarios.

Actually, if it were my team I'd want to be argued out of playing Young here. I'd rather get (say) Craig Monroe into the lineup and I think it's likely that the defensive cost won't be too severe. And if I thought this was likely to happen, I'd be a fair amount more optimistic about the position.

Shortstop: Carlos Guillen

Wow. Possessed by Arky Vaughan last year. (If the name doesn't ring a bell, check him out. A pretty reasonable choice for the second best shortstop of all time, and Guillen's 2004 would not look out of place in Arky's career)

I'd simply assumed that the Tigers' strongest position (relative to their peers) was catcher. IRod was great of course, but Guillen was better.

Here's the problem, though. He's not a good bet to be particularly close to this level of play in 2005. (Not that this is saying much. Damned few shortstops in history have finished 7th in the league in OPS+) I think ZIPS is very optimistic, but I think it's something of a compromise.

There is something like a 15-20% chance that 2004 is a new talent level for Guillen -- that he'll roughly duplicate the season. He could even play that well and miss very little time. The single most likely scenario though is that he'll fall back to something along the order of .280/.360/.410

Now that's a player that can help you, but it's a mighty big decline. As backup infielders go, I like the Tigers options. Probably Ramon Martinez (in effect at any rate, Infante might move around some too. I think it likely that they'll have infante concentrate on second with Martinez doing the bulk of any required switching of positions)

If you go with ZIPS here, you can expect about a 20-run decline. I think that's optimistic, but then what do the Tigers have to lose in being optimistic. They simply don't have a better option than Guillen.

Left Field: Rondell White (?)

If White is healthy he can help. If not (and I know how I'm betting) the options are pretty good. A lot of teams have questions. Not many can fall back to a player with as big an upside as Craig Monroe. Or (in effect) Chris Shelton, or even Bobby Higginson (though they may also be needed in right field). And of course Young also has to be in the mix.

All in all, if the position isn't adequate I think it will represent something of a black mark against Trammell. He's not short of options that rate to work and it's his job to sort things out.

ZIPS is kind of pessimistic about White. He shouldn't be playing regularly if he's not playing well.

I think it's best to think of left field and DH together. I'd expect the two positions to come out something close to the way they did in 2004. The precise numbers of either position will be mostly a function of where Young plays. It's not terribly important because you've got the same mix of players covering off two positions.

If Young is forced into service at third -- and as I said before this is the alignment I'd advocate, there rates to be some drop-off either in left field or at DH. But it rates to be an offensive gain because then Inge won't be playing third.

Center Field: Alex Sanchez

I'm generally skeptical that a guy who walks as little as Sanchez can sustain an adequate level of production. Basically all of his value lies in batting average. Still, he should be OK in the short term. Nothing special in spite of what should be a pretty decent batting average.

He has virtually no chance to hang on the moment that his bat speed slips even slightly. Players with command of the strike zone as bad as he has simply don't ever master it.

Nook Logan is probably the backup. He played quite well last year but I doubt he can sustain it in a more regular role. After all, AAA pitchers had no real trouble with him. Nor did AA pitchers the year before.

I'd be a heck of a lot more optimistic about his chances if he'd give up switch-hitting. Not that I think his excellent play against left-handed pitching last year is an ability. It's just that his numbers while batting left probably is an ability level -- it's perfectly in line with what he did in the minors. It'll take a ton of work to get those numbers close to adequate (and while that's going on he'll almost certainly slide while batting right-handed. That's the typical fate of this type of switch-hitter)

It's possible that a Sanchez/Logan platoon could be pretty decent. I don't expect to find out though. I expect Sanchez to get the bulk of the playing time.

Overall I'm expecting significant slippage at the position. In the 15 to 20-run range. Some of it due to Sanchez falling back a bit, the rest because Logan and company hit unusually well for backup center fielders in 2004 and I don't expect that to happen in 2005.

One interesting option would be to try Bobby Higginson in center. I think he could be adequate, if below average defensively. I don't expect it to happen though.

Right Field: Magglio Ordonez

Ordonez might end up at DH a significant amount of time. Doesn't really change the picture since we're talking the same guys playing, just different positions.

Of course, he might miss a lot of time. The Tigers are betting he won't and I havet to assume they got good medical advice.

I wouldn't have signed him -- at least not for the money he got -- based on what I know. The Tigers should know more about the chances of him being healthy than I do. On the other hand, think Vina last year. The Tigers clearly focus an awful lot on the best case, and the best case for Ordonez is very good indeed. It's just far from being a lock.

If he does end up missing significant time, Bobby Higginson rates to be pressed into service. It's reasonably clear this won't work out particularly well as Higginson has slipped to the point that he's really nothing more than a good 4th outfielder or a poor hitter for a regular corner outfielder.

As with several other positions, the projection for Ordonez is something of a compromise. If fully healthy, he's obviously a good bet for significantly more than what ZIPS projects. As such, this is a position to watch, but with a fair amount of optimism.

It's a very good bet to improve. I've got a 30-run improvement penciled in. Could be even more.

And it is worth noting that while Higginson didn't give the Tigers what they wanted he wasn't objectively bad. That's not too bad a position to be in if Ordonez misses significant time.

Designated Hitter: Dmitri Young (?)

Young could pop up in a number of positions. Even though he'll be poor defensively at any position except first base, he can hit enough that he's an attractive option, hence the question mark.

Still, if Young is playing some place else either Monroe or Shelton rate to be OK. Again, if the position proves to be a problem that should be seen as a black mark against Trammell.

Pitching overview:

When you play in a pitcher's park and allow the second most runs in the league it's safe to say that there's room for improvement. And while I may not agree with all of the moves they've made I do expect to see a significant improvement.

Mind you, significant improvement takes the Tigers all the way to mediocre. There is a scenario where the pitching is a net positive but I make this low odds.

Rotation:

It's a given that Mike Maroth, Jason Johnson, Nate Robertson and Jeremy Bonderman will be in the rotation. For the moment, there are number of candidates for the 5th spot and even if there are no injuries involved, I wouldn't be at all surprised to see a number of guys get a shot here. I expect Gary Knotts to get the first chance, but I'd expect him to lose out to Wil Ledezma eventually. Knotts looks to me to be pretty much a guy who's adequate but that you'd be actively trying to replace.

I'm not optimistic about Maroth this year. His strikeout rate is so low that it rates to cause him problems -- particularly since the infield defense rates to be less than stellar.

On the other hand, Johnson and Robertson should be OK and both have some chance to be better than that. 60 or so league average starts in my best guess.

Bonderman and Ledezma are the best candidates to be good, maybe better than that.

Ledezma has picked up a reputation for being fragile and because of this may end up in the bullpen. It would be a pity if that's all he could truly handle. He's to end up being used as a one out lefty if he does end up in the bullpen (since the more demanding roles are supposed to be covered)

Ledezma would probably do a good job in that role but it seems a huge waste of talent in a team that has genuine issues with its pitching.

Bonderman now is. I know a lot of people whose opinion I respect who give him a chance to be really good. Even though I don't expect it to happen, I make the chances of his having a breakout year as basically about the same as Maroth imploding.

In other words, I'm going with ZIPS here. 60 or so starts, a bit better than league average for the two of them.

Since we're talking pitchers, one or two others may see significant work as a starter. Though he's not ready right now, Colby Lewis has the best chance of being an acceptable replacement. (The Tigers have quite a few guys who could fill in without killing you. Need not be Lewis, but Lewis has an eventual upside even if the chances of getting it aren't great)

I've got the Tigers down for a 25-run improvement in their starting and they could be a heck of a lot better if either Bonderman or Ledezma break out this season.

Bullpen:

It was lousy last year. They spent a fair amount of money signing Troy Percival (and Kyle Farnswoth isn't working for meal money either). I expect a big improvement here -- something on the order of 35 runs. And given the way the story is so frequently shaped I expect Percival to end up with the lion's share of the credit even though he's a fair bet to be the worst regular pitcher in the bullpen.

Urbina battled his control last year but he wasn't so much bad as not all that the Tigers had hoped.

Jamie Walker continued to show me that he's a pitcher being wasted when he's used as a one out lefty.

Esteban Yan did a good job. Al Levine was ... well acceptable I suppose. You can do worse. The Tigers did.

In other words, the front-line talent was at least OK. But the rest of the bullpen was just awful. And used a fair amount.

In effect, Percival is replacing Urbina and should be an adequate replacement. Urbina is a very good bet to be at least as good as Yan. Farnsworth ... well he could give you anything. Still I'd much rather have Farnsworth than the 2004 model of Al Levine.

And then there's Fernando Rodney. If he's healthy he's a reasonable bet to be the best relief pitcher on the team. More than likely he'll struggle with his control for a while, but he sure looked like a pitcher a year ago. If he hasn't lost something important he'll almost certainly be a big positive.

And if you want a long shot with a huge upside you need look no further than Franklyn German. Hasn't yet found the strike zone but if he does he could be huge.

I expect one of Rodney or German to be a monster this year though not a fantasy monster. There's roughly no chance of them picking up any kind of saves.

Defensive Overview:

Really odd. With the exception of catcher I can almost reuse the comments in the Blue Jays article.

One thing that struck me. Both teams got a fair number of innings from nibblers. I wonder if there's a form of defensive illusion going on in contributing to to the terrible infield ratings.

One thing that rates to skew a player's zone rating is an unusual number of difficult defensive plays. It certainly seems plausible that a nibbler who gets behind in the count is a lot more likely to give up a hard hit ground ball than your average pitcher.

Worth thinking about and if I figure out a way to study the issue, I'll take a serious look.

Anyhow, on with the Tigers.

It used to be that you simply couldn't run on Rodriguez. He's still a positive, but we're not talking any big deal. Brandon Inge probably throws better than Rodriguez right now. Not that this is a terrible insult as Inge can throw.

I don't expect substantial change in 2005. People don't run much against the Tigers, so this isn't going to be a big positive.

Nobody in the infield was really good according to zone rating. I lie, Jason Smith was excellent, but he's not in the mix.

Munson was terrible and he's gone. Inge is a fair bet to improve; he has all of the tools you could want but is still raw. One thing to be concerned about though; the Tigers have been talking about errors at third and that's apt to be a sore spot this year. In other words he's a good bet to make lots of errors even if he's doing an adequate job in other respects. The last thing he needs is pressure to cut his error rate down. It's also worth noting that an awful lot of guys whose tools seemed adequate to handle third have failed. It's a tough position.

As I've said earlier, I'd advocate playing Dmitri Young at third. But then it's not my stress level. Take Eric Munson and multiply it by a guy who was never adequate and is rusty. Wouldn't be pretty.

Guillen used to have a pretty good defensive reputation. I'll tell you one thing. I can live with his defensive numbers (which weren't objectively bad, just not what I'd have expected) if he hits anything like he did in 2004.

I'd always assumed (without checking) that Omar Infante was a little glove man. Images from names and all that (the classic for me was Bobby Bonilla. I'd simply assumed he was a fast little guy. After all, he played a fair amount of center field for the White Sox and his stats as a rookie looked like somebody who was trying to make it as a leadoff hitter. I never saw him play until his second year. I was stunned. A linebacker not a center fielder)

Anyhow, best I can tell, Infante is significantly less agile than I'd expected (and a heck of a lot bigger) . He's going to have to work hard with the glove if he wants to stay a regular. His bat is always going to have people looking to replace him.

Carlos Pena basically makes the plays you want him to. Dan again rates Dmitri Young as the better defensive player at first. Not that it matters a lot (there are only a handful of first-basemen who rate to make a real difference either positive or negative), but it's safe to say the Tigers disagree.

The outfield is a very different story. You have a number of guys who are excellent corner outfielders (White and Higginson). Craig Monroe is a lot better than I expected. Ordonez was pretty good. No idea how much (if anything) his knee problems will cost him, but if he has to DH with Young in the outfield that won't kill the Tigers.

Alex Sanchez had an off year by his standards defensively. If he's healthy he rates to be pretty good. Nook Logan though makes me think of Gary Pettis. Fast and seems to have really good instincts. I know I'd want to carry Logan if I could spare the roster spot. Still, Logan needs to improve an awful lot with the bat to help a team and 5th outfielder/pinch-runner is no way for that to happen.

I think the Tigers will battle to be average defensively. Any improvement in infield defense rates to be offset in the outfield (not that the outfield will be bad, we're talking a drop-off from a very high standard)

Manager: Alan Trammell

I don't know that this tell us anything of importance, but the Tigers again won significantly fewer games than you'd expect given the runs scored and allowed. I know a lot of people who grade managers by this. I don't, but it's obviously not a positive.

Something very odd happened with Tiger leadoff hitters. They hit a combined .277/.309/.377 . You know how that happened? For about 1/3 of the season Omar Infante led off.

Now I try not to make too much out of batting order. Most of the time things come out in the wash. But when the on-base percentage of your leadoff hitter is this bad, you simply have to hold it against the manager.

This isn't a case of a reasonable option playing unexpectedly poorly. Infante was something of a pleasant surprise.

Sanchez isn't a wonderful choice as leadoff hitter, but he's a good bet to be OK. If he's not available, there's nobody whose skill set says leadoff (not that Sanchez is ideal given his walk rate. Still he's close to adequate in terms of getting on base. I'd advocate leading Guillen off but I don't expect that to happen). I really hope Trammell will avoid the temptation to lead off Infante though. It's as big a mistake as he can make given a reasonable job in selecting who plays.

But there are positives. He got a good year out of Brandon Inge -- mostly by putting him in positions where he could succeed. I don't know how much credit you can give him for Guillen's monster season, but it sure as hell isn't a negative. Nook Logan played better for Trammell than in the minors. If it's a fluke, give me more. He dealt with the Vina situation in a capable manner.

All in all, he doesn't seem to me to be one of those rare managers who can make a team better, but he does a reasonable job. The leadoff situation aside, he's not doing things that hurt the team.

Summing up:

Obviously I'm not a writing this as a Tiger fan. Indeed I'm an Orioles fan. I've seen a will to win frustrated by poor execution. Still, the Tigers aren't doing anything objectively stupid. They're just probably wasting some money.

And in return, they're communicating the desire to improve to their fan base. As I said, I wish them well.

2005 ZiPS Projections

Name                 W   L    ERA   G  GS     INN    H   ER  HR   BB    K 
Rodney               5   3   3.49  63   0    67.0   58   26   3   30   68 
Urbina               5   3   3.92  63   0    62.0   54   27   6   28   69 
Ledezma*            10   7   4.05  33  20   140.0  143   63  14   42  107 
Walker*              3   3   4.21  72   0    62.0   65   29   9   14   48 
Farnsworth           4   4   4.36  69   0    66.0   63   32   7   31   68 
Johnson             11  10   4.45  31  31   184.0  198   91  19   62  117 
Bonderman           13  11   4.47  33  30   175.0  176   87  22   65  148 
Cornejo             11   9   4.55  29  28   174.0  200   88  16   48   68 
Maroth*             14  13   4.66  33  33   203.0  233  105  24   56  102 
Good                 7   7   4.67  27  20   133.0  155   69  21   25   86 
Moehler              3   3   4.78  10   9    49.0   54   26   8   11   23 
Henkel               7   8   4.80  21  20   105.0  108   56  13   48   83 
Spurling             2   3   4.82  60   0    71.0   81   38  11   19   43 
Robertson*           9  10   4.83  33  31   190.0  208  102  26   68  129 
Lewis               10  11   4.86  32  28   152.0  158   82  18   70  118 
Percival             3   2   4.88  53   0    48.0   49   26   6   23   45 
German               4   4   4.90  67   0    68.0   62   37   7   45   73 
Ennis                6   7   5.03  37  19   127.0  137   71  15   59   85 
Douglass             4   9   5.13  31  23   135.0  140   77  15   74  109 
Creek*               1   2   5.17  40   0    40.0   38   23   5   23   39 
Baugh                7   8   5.21  24  24   133.0  150   77  20   50   80 
Karnuth              3   4   5.32  57   0    66.0   76   39   9   28   36 
Cruz                 5   6   5.42  36   8    78.0   92   47  15   24   53 
Larrison             4   5   5.58  22  22   121.0  145   75  16   54   50 
Knotts               6   9   5.68  40  21   141.0  162   89  23   65   86 
Roney                7  10   5.69  31  23   144.0  166   91  26   61   92 
Woodyard             4   7   5.71  34  17   112.0  127   71  13   64   60 
Sleeth               7  10   5.79  24  24   143.0  161   92  25   71  100 
Colyer*              2   4   5.90  61   0    61.0   60   40   7   48   54 
Bynum*               4   9   5.92  43  16   117.0  125   77  19   72   96 
Dingman              2   3   6.07  35   0    43.0   46   29   7   28   33 
Zumaya               5  11   6.65  22  22   115.0  121   85  20   96  102 
Bumatay*             2   5   7.42  45   0    57.0   61   47  11   56   54 

Name               P    AVG   OBP   SPC   G  AB   R   H 2B 3B HR RBI  BB   K SB CS 
Ordonez            rf  .305  .370  .495 132 511  56 156 36  2 19  84  49  60  5  6 
Guillen#           ss  .306  .375  .483 130 487  83 149 30  7 14  73  54  81  8  5 
Rodriguez          c   .312  .369  .477 133 503  71 157 31  2 16  78  44  87  7  5 
Pena*              1b  .241  .337  .463 145 510  75 123 24  4 27  80  72 140  5  3 
Young#             lf  .284  .356  .500 122 450  68 128 28  3 21  72  44  91  1  1 
Monroe             lf  .284  .329  .473 133 469  66 133 28  2 19  74  32  86  4  4 
White              lf  .266  .326  .435 127 462  65 123 20  2 18  70  34  78  1  3 
Infante            ss  .255  .311  .405 142 494  67 126 21  7 13  53  41 100 18  6 
Thames             rf  .256  .333  .465 116 387  60  99 25  1 18  63  42  83  3  4 
Granderson*        cf  .251  .326  .382 134 471  70 118 16  5 12  53  51 104 12  9 
Gettis             rf  .274  .356  .398 119 412  57 113 17  2 10  55  50 103  7  8 
Higginson*         rf  .240  .334  .368 127 446  54 107 20  2 11  55  60  72  6  5 
Inge               c   .253  .314  .401 134 439  43 111 19  5 12  52  36  91  5  5 
Sanchez*           cf  .303  .334  .367 114 452  50 137 16  5  1  35  21  62 34 20 
Hessman            1b  .251  .308  .438 115 395  55  99 18  1 18  65  30  95  2  3 
Logan#             cf  .245  .299  .309 151 550  70 135 15  7  2  36  39 117 34 24 
Espinosa#          cf  .229  .309  .342 124 450  67 103 15  3 10  41  49 127 18 11 
Shelton            c   .296  .331  .442 107 335  57  99 17  1 10  46  16  73  1  3 
Gomez*             lf  .251  .297  .363 125 455  49 114 17  5  8  46  27 103 10  9 
Raburn             2b  .230  .299  .379 114 383  58  88 20  2 11  45  35 113  3  2 
Smith*             ss  .257  .284  .406 110 389  51 100 16  6 10  44  13  92  7  6 
Wise*              cf  .249  .295  .421 108 337  48  84 15  5 11  39  20  59 10  5 
Ust                3b  .237  .272  .354 115 410  38  97 20  2  8  41  17  94  3  2 
Rivera             c   .247  .301  .417  83 300  38  74 13  1 12  48  22  69  0  1 
Vina*              2b  .241  .298  .305  96 390  42  94 16  3  1  31  26  25  7  9 
Kelly*             ss  .251  .333  .316  86 291  39  73 12  2  1  24  34  28  7  2 
Martinez           2b  .258  .323  .354 100 260  24  67 14  1  3  28  24  41  1  0 
Hooper             2b  .223  .279  .257 113 412  50  92  9  1  1  27  29  57 13  9 
St. Pierre         c   .214  .266  .303  90 323  32  69 11  0  6  31  21  53  1  1 
Kirkland           3b  .190  .215  .293 117 416  39  79 16  6  5  32  10 130  6  5 
Wilson             c   .244  .302  .351  85 205  23  50  8  1  4  27  12  38  1  1 
Martinez*          c   .232  .278  .354  53 164  21  38  6  1  4  24   9  42  1  1 
ZiPS Projections are not playing time predictors; they project a player's performance given playing time in the majors in their accustomed role. As with all projections, specific knowledge of non-statistical attributes of the player and role should temper what the computer says.

Ron Johnson Posted: March 14, 2005 at 10:38 AM | 18 comment(s)
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   1. Buddha Posted: March 14, 2005 at 02:09 PM (#1198293)
I'll be shocked if either Bonderman or Percival pitches as poorly as ZIPS predicts.

Infante's injury is my biggest concern at this point.

On the whole, it's nice to hear from someone on this site who actually thinks it's good when a team spends money to win (not that you agree with HOW they spent it) instead of gushing about how they signed some minor league free agent for the minimum.
   2. chemdoc Posted: March 14, 2005 at 04:03 PM (#1198472)
What is this fascination with Chris Shelton as a backup catcher? My understanding is that the general consensus is that he's not going to be defensively competent enough to catch even semi-regularly at the ML level.

I don't see him in Detroit any time before September, barring multiple injuries, unless he has tickets for the All-Star game.
   3. Kevin Sweet Child Romine (aco) Posted: March 14, 2005 at 04:38 PM (#1198561)
I agree about Bonderman. A 22-year-old with a track record like him is tough to predict, but I expect him to be much better than ZiPS has him. 168 K in 184 IP from a 21 year old bodes well in my book.

Infante's listed as 5'9", 150 lb - is this wrong?
   4. Buddha Posted: March 14, 2005 at 07:02 PM (#1198820)
Infante is not very big, but he has a lot of pop in his bat.

Everything I've read has Shelton pegged as a DH or 1B or Corner outfielder in a pinch. That's why the Pirates got rid of him. I think he played some catcher for the Tigers last year or in the AFL (where he was the best hitter, IIRC), and he wasn't very good.

His bat is what will get him to the majors. It's ready right now. I look for him to replace Young on the roster after this season.

Bonderman was lights out down the stretch last year after they stopped messing with his head and simplified everything for him.

Watch out for fernando rodney and Franklyn German this year. They looked good in winter ball and in spring training. German has stopped throwing so hard and started to work on control. It's paid off so far.

Urbina becomes much more tradeable if those two can be effective.

I still expect a trade before the season starts. For either an SP or a CF. Urbina, one of the corner outfield glut of White/Monroe/Higginsuck and maybe Maroth or a prospect for another pitcher or CF.
   5. Ivan Grushenko of Hong Kong Posted: March 15, 2005 at 01:48 AM (#1199357)
Baseball needs more organizations that are hungry to win rather than hoping to fluke into something.

On the whole, it's nice to hear from someone on this site who actually thinks it's good when a team spends money to win


I couldn't agree more. The objective is to win (or maximize profits), not maximize efficiency (or profitability).

Higginson is an interesting case -- PECOTA has him at a .362 EqOBP, while ZiPS is much less optimistic. I think most agree his defense is good -- UZR True Talent +10 after 2003. So he's either a useful starter (at least platoon player), or he's a corner defensive caddy. White looks like he's tanking as well.

Ron, does your skepticism about Inge relate to his hitting or his fielding? He seems like a pretty good athlete -- playing C, 3B, CF in the same year.
   6. Mike Emeigh Posted: March 15, 2005 at 11:16 AM (#1199798)
His bat is what will get him to the majors. It's ready right now.

What makes you think this?

AFL stats need to be taken with a huge grain of salt. It's a hitters' league, for sure, and quite often teams will avoid sending their top pitching prospects there for that reason.

-- MWE
   7. RNJ Posted: March 15, 2005 at 12:52 PM (#1199961)
Ivan, my skepticism about Inge is almost exclusively related to his bat. I have no doubt as to his athletic gifts.

Having said that, I can come up with a ton of names who seemed to have the athletic skills to handle third and couldn't. It's an unusually tough position to teach in that to a large extent it's a reaction position.

Inge wasn't actually good at third last year, though he may have looked that way if compared to Munson (or Dean Palmer)

At any rate, his glove is the least of the Tigers concerns.

Regarding Shelton. I can tell you what the fascination is: Brian Harper. Basically, I think the overall value of Shelton's bat is most likely to end up in the Harper range. That's a heck of a bat for a catcher, but not at the other positions Shelton can handle.

As with Shelton there were legitimate concerns as to whether Harper could handle catcher. The consensus was that he couldn't, but when push came to shove it turned out that Harper's glove was good enough.

Guys who can hit a bit and handle catching are few and far between. If (and I agree it's a big if) he can actually handle the position Shelton could have a fair amount of value. And I really don't think it's likely that he will unless he catches.

I do agree that an early trade seems likely. But some of the guys that the Tigers would most like to move (Higginson in particular) don't rate to be easy to move.

Oh yeah, Infante's size. He's listed at 6'0", 176 at cbs.sportsline. I was shocked when I saw that because he didn't seem close to that size to me. But size is tough to judge on the tube and I had no reason to doubt the listing.
   8. Russlan is glad the 2008 season is over Posted: March 15, 2005 at 01:23 PM (#1200019)
Sanchez released

Who plays centerfield now?
   9. Buddha Posted: March 15, 2005 at 01:28 PM (#1200028)
Logan or Monroe.
   10. chemdoc Posted: March 15, 2005 at 02:45 PM (#1200135)
Who bats lead-off?

Is it possible that Inge will be the new CF?

What if this means Dean Palmer's making the club?
   11. Buddha Posted: March 15, 2005 at 02:50 PM (#1200151)
Dean Palmer shouldn't be anywhere near that club. If he wants to play, they can stick him in Toledo to pinch hit and come up in an emergency if everyone else gets hurt.

Inge may bat lead off. I'd rather have Sanchez on the roster than Palmer.

This may be the precursor to a trade for a CF. Mike Cameron anyone?
   12. chemdoc Posted: March 15, 2005 at 04:20 PM (#1200361)
Does anyone have any reason to believe that Cameron's going to waive his no-trade clause to go to Detroit? I don't.

In any event, I doubt that would solve the lack of lead-off candidates the Tigers have.
   13. Buddha Posted: March 15, 2005 at 05:58 PM (#1200538)
"Does anyone have any reason to believe that Cameron's going to waive his no-trade clause to go to Detroit? I don't."

Why not? The baseball team doesn't suck anymore. The town? Well...

They could always bat Guillen lead off.
   14. chemdoc Posted: March 15, 2005 at 06:34 PM (#1200589)
Guillen at lead-off makes more sense than Inge.

Even if Cameron were willing to waive his no-trade (which would go against all evidence available -- skimpy as it is), you're looking at someone whose offensive numbers are declining year to year, is coming off surgery, and is somewhat expensive for the next 2 seasons.

I might rather risk running Logan out there every day and letting him bat 9th.
   15. Vaux, A.B.D. Posted: March 16, 2005 at 12:59 AM (#1200951)
Palmer's having a good spring... players do come back from injuries on occasion, you know, even degenerative conditions that have had them out of action for two years. Hey, it's spring training.

That being said, until the author said he wasn't a Tiger fan, I assumed he was, and thought he was being overly optimistic. I guess I've just been a Tiger fan for too long. I don't think they'd consider 82 wins a disappointment; it looks like exactly what they're aiming for this year, while hoping some things click and they do better. And, I must say it's the same here. When the Tigers finish .500, I feel about the way I'd bet Yankee fans do with a World Championship, and they've only done it twice since I've been here.
   16. Mike Emeigh Posted: March 16, 2005 at 12:56 PM (#1201423)
Well, Shelton's not making the team; he was sent down yesterday, as were Granderson and Gettis.

If I had to bet today, I'd bet that Monroe will be in center on Opening Day. The Tigers are also looking at Dewayne Wise and Alexis Gomez as candidates for the CF spot.

-- MWE
   17. RNJ Posted: March 16, 2005 at 05:26 PM (#1201866)
I have to say I find the decision to release Sanchez odd and a little troubling. I mean he has some value. Maybe not a lot, but if all you can get for him is half a ham sandwich, doesn't it make sense to go for it?

I agree with Buddha. Spring training isn't an adequate trial for Palmer. Doesn't make sense to me to make a roster decision on some good spring training play.

On the other hand, assuming you're confident that Ordonez can go, it makes all the sense in the world to give the CF job to Monroe -- I just didn't think they would.

Given good luck with health, this probably strengthens the team, so I'm not questioning the decision to play somebody else in CF, just the decision to release Sanchez.

I really hope than Trammell doesn't lead off Infante though. Doesn't make any sense to lead off the guy who's a reasonable bet to have the lowest OBP among the regulars.
   18. Buddha Posted: March 17, 2005 at 07:51 PM (#1204337)
"I have to say I find the decision to release Sanchez odd and a little troubling. I mean he has some value. Maybe not a lot, but if all you can get for him is half a ham sandwich, doesn't it make sense to go for it?"

They saved over a million dollars by cutting him now. That's a lot of ham sandwiches.
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