Baltimore Orioles

This spring marks the 15th anniversary of perhaps the most spectacular run of ineptitude of any professional sports franchise in recent memory: the 1988 Baltimore Orioles season-opening 21 game losing streak. As a ten-year-old baseball fanatic growing up in nearby Annapolis, that depressing April continues to tower over other, happier, sports memories from my childhood, so that, instead of recalling the trio of Redskins Super Bowl wins, or the Orioles own 1983 championship run, my mind obsessively returns to visions of Rick Schu making throwing errors, or Eric Bell getting shelled, while a broadcaster interrupts the carnage to remark, "You know, we laugh about this, but really this isn’t funny anymore."

No, it wasn’t funny. While my friends abandoned the ship, announcing that they now "hated the Orioles," (a sentiment which seemed excessively cruel to me, like despising a three-legged dog because he is slow), I stayed with them, listening to each game, each successive loss, on the radio in my darkened bedroom. That April, it became a standard ritual in my house for my mother to come into my room and console me as I bitterly wept into my pillow, sobbing, "They’ll never win a game!" At that tender age, the intricacies of the 162 game season were lost to me, for whom the Orioles nightly futility seemed more like a Biblical curse than a mere product of statistical variation. In April of 1988, things would not "even out" in the end—my beloved Orioles were going to lose 162 consecutive games, and having already committed myself to them, I was going to be forced to listen to every one, the way an alcoholic continues to consume what he knows is pure poison to his very soul. In this respect, the Orioles first victory, coming over the White Sox one incomprehensible night in Chicago, carried an air of surreal, giddy accomplishment, a feeling not unlike what I imagine Berliners experienced a year and a half later when the Wall finally came down.

In glancing over the Orioles 2003 roster, it seems fitting to revisit these memories. For, despite the arrival of the new GM tandem of Jim Beattie and Mike Flanagan, the 2003 Orioles are essentially the same as the 2002 version, which itself established a record for end-of-the-season futility with a disastrous 4-32 finish. Heading into 2003, the first question will be whether these Orioles, whose only principal additions are Deivi Cruz, Omar Daal, and Kerry Ligtenberg, will more resemble the team that played .500 ball into late August, or the team that, in the final six weeks of the season, endured separate losing streaks of 8, 10, and 12 games, respectively. But the second, and more important question, will be this. In the absence of any identifiable plan for making the Orioles competitive in the future, does it even matter?

In recent years the Orioles, through a series of neither-here nor-there free agent acquisitions, have seemed content to stagnate in fourth place in the AL East (a position so redolent with mediocrity that it must have a corollary in Dante’s Fifth Circle of Hell, where the sighs of the sullen are said to ripple the waters of the River Styx.) Heading into 2003, the Orioles seem increasingly dependent on injury-prone veterans of limited value (David Segui, Marty Cordova, Jeff Conine) and flash-in-the-pan journeymen (Gary Matthews, Jr., Rodrigo Lopez) whose current estimation in the eyes of the Oriole front office is based primarily on a few months of surprising performance, rather than longer track records of uninspiring play. It is a formula for potential disaster.

Delving into the Orioles shortcomings is a bit like describing, at length, the smallest details of a traffic accident in which no one is hurt (that is, depressing without offering any entertainment to the morbidly curious), but nonetheless here we go.

A few years ago the organization traded away its only real prospect at this position, Jayson Werth, for a middle reliever who has long since left the organization. What is left is Geronimo Gil, who will likely retain the starter’s role for a second straight year, based on his strong throwing arm and occasional power at the plate. Unfortunately, he also has no plate discipline or ability to hit for average, and easily led the league in passed balls last year. He only holds onto the job this year because the front office failed to land Ivan Rodriguez. The bet here is that this will be his last year as a starter, before he comfortably settles into the Jorge Fabregas, roving backup role for the remainder of his career.

Ostensibly Segui will fill the role this year, although with his injury history it’s anyone’s guess as to how many games he plays. If healthy, the 36-year-old Segui might be the Orioles best hitter, which tells you more about the state of the Orioles offense than it does about the quality of Segui’s bat, which at its very best might be good for .300/.360/.480, not bad but also not extraordinary for a first baseman. But at any rate, Segui has only appeared in 108 games since signing a four-year contract with the Orioles two years ago. When he goes down, the organization has three players to man the position, Jeff Conine, Jay Gibbons, and Chris Richard, all of whom, if they can’t field as well, have Segui-like offensive value.

Having successfully fended off a challenge from perennial up-and-comer Brian Roberts last summer, Jerry Hairston, Jr. enters 2003 with a firm grip on the starting job, and the odds-on favorite to start the season as the team's leadoff hitter. Having posted a .291 batting average and .355 OBP after the All-Star Break last year, Hairston is one of the few Orioles of whom we might expect better things in the future. Now 26, he continues to be one of the league's better defenders at the position.

In college, the coach for my rec league basketball team was a benevolent loudmouth named Daryl Diamond. One of those amiable, talkative fellows whose mouth tends to move twice as fast as his brain, Daryl liked to inspire us before big games by reciting standard sports clichés, which he usually managed to botch. One time, before a crucial game, he gathered us together in a huddle and gave an inspiring speech that ended with "Two times two equals forty minutes of intensity." Reflecting on this bizarre equation rather than the impending contest, we proceeded to lose the game by 30 points. I believe a similar fate befell Tony Batista in 2002. Before the All-Star Break, Tony, author of the game's strangest batting stance, batted a solid .269/.340/.522. Then, in the late innings of the All-Star Game, Tony was nearly run over in the on deck circle by an oversized, out-of-control hot dog sprinting toward the finish line in a between-innings mascot race. After that, the flummoxed Batista spent the next three months contemplating the futility of all human existence in a godless void, instead of concentrating on hitting. The result was a .217/.276/.388 post-All Star Break performance which likely cost him the coveted Most Valuable Oriole Award. Provided that he can excise all fears that a giant food product will blindside him at the plate, Batista's 2003 performance should more closely match his pre-mascot level, and who knows, he may yet claim that elusive MVO.

Following up on the front office's wise decision to part ways with Mike Bordick, the Orioles signing of Deivi Cruz ranks as one of the worst of the offseason, inexplicable in that the franchise had at least three better options at the position. First, they could have handed the position to Melvin Mora, who might have been the most valuable player on the Orioles last season. Second, they could have gone with Brian Roberts, who is right now a more viable offensive threat than Cruz. Or third, they could have shifted Tony Batista over to the shortstop position. In the 2003 Baseball Prospectus, the authors argue that Batista's bulk makes him untenable at the position, but I am inclined to disagree. As recently as 2001, Batista played 20 games at the position, making just one error and posting a range factor above the league norm. With Batista slotted in the shortstop position, Beattie and Flanagan could have pursued a decent bat at third base, or thrown all of the flotsam from their system at the Rangers in an attempt to land Hank Blalock. Instead, the Orioles are stuck with Cruz, a shaky defender whose offense has been sinking for the last two years. It should be noted, however, that Cruz was only signed to a one-year deal, and there is every likelihood that if (when) he falters at the position, Mora or Roberts will be able to sweep in and take his place.

I wonder how Marty Cordova has been spending the three-year, $9.1 million contract the Orioles inked him to prior to the 2002 season. Did he build a nice addition to his house, or buy a few new cars and a new boat? Did he invest heavily in the stock market and has been taking a beating ever since? According to his player bio on the Orioles web site, Cordova is single and lives in Las Vegas during the offseason. Hmm. Well, however he’s spending it, I hope he’s enjoying it, because for every Rick Helling or Jose Hernandez, victimized by this winter’s frigid free agent market, there’s a Marty Cordova, who sneaked in just under the wire and is now living the high life. On a good team, Cordova would be a very useful player to have, a consistent offensive presence who would make an excellent platoon candidate. (Over the last three seasons Cordova’s OPS has been approximately 75 points higher against righties than against lefties.) His continued presence on the "rebuilding" Orioles would be of more concern if he were actually blocking a real prospect. But he’s not, so…Welcome Back, Marty!

An afterthought when he was acquired from the New York Mets in April, Gary Matthews, Jr. surprised nearly everyone but Syd Thrift with his fine all-around performance last year. As of August 9th, Matthews was hitting at a .297/.374/.453 clip, before tendonitis in his right wrist limited his effectiveness and curtailed his season. Even still, Matthews led the team in both batting average (.276) and on base percentage (.355). Can he do it again? Anything’s possible, but there is little in Matthews’ performance history to suggest he won’t return to playing like Gary Matthews, Jr. before very long. Defensively, Matthews’ career numbers at center field indicate that he is in over his head at the position. In a better world, Segui and Conine would be gone, and Jay Gibbons would play first, allowing Matthews to play in right field and Melvin Mora, an above average defender, to roam center field. But this is the Orioles.

Gibbons is the lone Oriole who still carries some breakout potential. Nabbed by Thrift two years ago in the Rule V draft, Gibbons’ 793 OPS last year led the team, but there is reason to believe he can do better. Hampered by a wrist injury last year, Gibbons underwent offseason surgery and has reported to camp in good shape, having added a few more pounds to his already impressive physique. Still just 26 years old, a 35-40 home run season is not out of the question. On the down side, Gibbons has still not mastered the strike zone or left handed pitchers, who held him to a 650 OPS last year. With the Orioles bevy of options at the corner outfield positions, however, Gibbons will likely be benched against tougher lefties.

I’ve listed Conine as the DH, though really those duties will likely be split between Conine, Segui, Gibbons, and Richard. Like Cordova, Conine would be a useful player to have on a contending team, a solid if unspectacular hitter who can sort of play four different positions (first base, left field, right field, third base). He’s been remarkably consistent since arriving in Baltimore via trade four years ago, though last year his walk rate plummeted. Now 36, Conine has been limited by hamstring injuries the last two years, and is a likely candidate to spend some time on the shelf again this year. He’s signed through 2004, with a team option for 2005, presumably in the event that the Orioles decide a 39-year-old Jeff Conine is a final piece to their 2005 World Series championship puzzle.

Based on the word coming out of spring training, it looks like soft tosser John Stephens, almost certainly the Orioles best (only) prospect and one of the more intriguing young pitchers around, will be starting the season in AAA Ottawa, so that the Orioles can give some much-needed experience to young up-and-comers like Hentgen, Daal, and Helling. (A few weeks ago, you could have included Scott Erickson in that list, but a torn labrum that never healed properly has shelved him for the season and likely ended his eight-year stint in Baltimore.) There is a good chance that the Orioles will trade one of these pitchers, likely either Johnson or Ponson, for some offensive help before the season starts. It would be very fortuitous if the Orioles could unload Ponson, who himself has been piching (albeit rather effectively) with a torn labrum for at least the last year. Ponson, overworked by Ray Miller and Mike Hargrove early in his career, is a serious injury waiting to happen. At this point, Johnson, who at his best is an average to slightly above-average starting pitcher, has the brighter future.

What does the future hold for Rodrigo Lopez? There are two schools of thought here. The first is that Lopez’ mediocre performance down the stretch (he went 7-6 with a 4.20 ERA after the All-Star break) was simply a product of the league figuring out his funky delivery. On the other hand, Lopez’s reduced second-half performance could be the result of simple fatigue: between the Mexican League and the American League, Lopez tossed over 300 innings in 2002, and it may be that his arm simply wore out. I think he’s got a shot to do much better than the 4.66 ERA Baseball Prospectus projects for him for 2003, but he’s also a very likely candidate for a second-year slump.

In contrast, Omar Daal saved his better work for the end of the season last year, which netted him a two-year deal with the Orioles in the offseason. Although this move drew some criticism from posters on this site, it should be noted that Daal can provide a bit of stability to a rotation that enters the season with a lot of question marks. Now 31 years old, Daal seems to have overcome his disastrous 2000 campaign and settled into a groove of mediocrity, which means he’ll fit right in on the Orioles.

Baltimore will be lucky to get so much as mediocrity from Pat Hentgen, who appears to still be recovering from Tommy John surgery, which prematurely ended his 2001 season and erased nearly all of his 2002 campaign. Hentgen pushed himself to come back last year, with the predictable result: in 4 starts he allowed 31 hits, 19 earned runs, and 6 home runs. The news from Florida this spring has also not been encouraging, as Hentgen was battered in his first outing. But he’s one of Mike Hargrove’s professed "all time favorite players," and so he’s going to get every opportunity to come back. If he can’t, or if the O’s trade one of their other pitchers, expect NRI Rick Helling to move into the 5^th spot in the rotation. Helling’s penchant for giving up home runs makes him a less-than attractive candidate for Camden Yards, but then it must also be admitted that John Stephens also allowed his fair share of gopher balls (13) in his 11 starts with the big club last year.

The Orioles one clear strength, this is one of the best bullpens in the American League. Last year’s bullpen posted a 3.49 ERA, 15 points better than the more-heralded Yankees bullpen. While much of the bullpen’s success must be credited to Jorge Julio, who surprised nearly everyone by emerging as a legitimate closer, the pen’s best performer was the 37-year-old Groom, who posted a 1.60 ERA and a 4:1 K/BB ratio. When the Orioles offense scored enough runs to stay in the game, Groom and Roberts (3.36 ERA) held the opposition in check. With Ligtenberg (2.97 ERA in 2002) now on board, the setup corps is even stronger. In fact, the trio of Groom, Roberts, and Ligtenberg are so good, that the Orioles front office ought to consider trading the 24-year-old Julio, while he is still fresh off his sparkling rookie performance. Let’s face it, the last position where this team needs a star player is closer, and if Julio could be included in a package that could induce a team like the Royals to part ways with a Carlos Beltran, for instance, then such a move ought to be made with all due haste. At the back end of the bullpen, B.J. Ryan and Rick Bauer can be expected to provide adequate if unspectacular middle relief. Ryan, who arrived from Cincinnati in the Juan Guzman deal four years ago, throws hard but leaves the ball in the middle of the plate a bit too often, while Bauer is useful as a long reliever and occasional spot starter.

Paradoxically, Melvin Mora’s greatest asset has become his curse. Because he is capable of playing several different positions well (last year he played center field, second base, shortstop, left field and right field), management has failed to associate him with any one position, and thus threatened the playing time for one of the team’s most "potent" offensive threats. This spring the Orioles have been complaining that Mora’s batting average is too low (he batted .233 last year), and that he tries too hard to hit the ball over the fence (he swatted 19 homers last year.) Those criticisms may be valid, but it is also true that Mora is perhaps the only Oriole who understands the value of a walk (his .334 OBP was second on the team, despite the low batting average.) Although he will likely go into the 2003 campaign assured of no more than a couple of starts per week, the fragility of much of the Orioles lineup makes it almost a certainty that Mora’s services will soon be needed nearly every day. If Segui, Gibbons or Conine get hurt, if Cruz or Matthews play poorly, then Mora will be the first one to step in and fill the breach. In the sense that Mora’s versatility helps compensate for the team’s shortcomings at several important positions, Melvin might be the Orioles most valuable player.

The rest of the 2003 Orioles bench will be populated by the utterly inept Brook Fordyce (whose offense, since signing a three-year deal two years ago, has been MIA, and his defense pretty much DOA), the ailing Chris Richard, (who has showed some signs of life since arriving from the Cardinals in late 2000, but who has been hampered by nagging shoulder problems,) the over-the-hill Valentin (who can kind of hit) and over-the-hill Reboulet (who can kind of field.)

Those last two suspects will likely compete for the final roster spot with Surhoff, signed to a minor league deal shortly before spring training commenced. In fairness to Surhoff, he would have been a good pickup for a contending team looking for a left-handed bat off the bench. But Surhoff wanted to play in Baltimore, where he has always been a fan favorite.

While the 38-year-old Surhoff dukes it out with the 36-year-old Valentin and the soon-to-be 39-year-old Reboulet, the "rebuilding" Orioles will probably ship 25-year-old Brian Roberts back to AAA. Roberts is perhaps the fastest runner the Orioles have, and he played very well in winter ball. But with Hairston at second and Deivi Cruz brought in to play short, there is no place to put Roberts, except on the bench. In that light, maybe it would be wiser to send him down to AAA, just so he can keep playing.

Let us be blunt: this franchise is going nowhere. The Orioles have arguably the worst front-line talent of any team in the majors, and even more troubling, their starters have very low ceilings, the lowest of any team in the majors. Baltimore is now universally-recognized as running the worst farm system in baseball. In the few months they have been on the job, Beattie and Flanagan have done little to reverse these trends at either the major or minor league level. The signing of Doc Rodgers to run the minor league system may be a step in the right direction, but with major league talent lacking at every level in the system, it will be years before any much-needed reforms might be felt in the Charm City. What will probably save the Orioles from a last place finish, and will likely ensure a 6th consecutive fourth straight finish, is the fact that they aren’t exactly terrible at any one position. The legacy of Syd Thrift is that he identified and signed an astounding number of mediocre-but-not-awful players. When it came to mediocrity, Syd Thrift was the Billy Beane of baseball executives, aggressively pursuing and retaining vaguely useful players who either never had a prime, or had recently passed whatever it was that they once did that kind of resembled something like a prime. And just as Billy Beane has spawned a number of protégés, so it seems that Flanagan and Beattie (thus far) remain determined to carry on the Thrift legacy, quietly revolutionizing the way unimaginative teams secure ordinary players to ensure mediocre finishes in the standings.

So will they do better or worse than last year’s 67-95 showing? I don’t know. Frankly, I don’t really care. (I know that is a bad admission to make when writing a team preview, but so what.) On the one hand, if everything went right, if Lopez follows up on his near ROY 2002 performance and Gibbons continues to emerge as a legitimate power hitter and the other decent hitters on the roster (Segui, Conine, Cordova) stay healthy and play up to their expected levels, and the back end of the rotation plays solidly and the bullpen continues on its 2002 success, then maybe, just maybe, the Orioles might break .500 by a game or two. And that might be the worst outcome of at all, because it might convince the people of Baltimore, the writers, and the Orioles themselves that their current nucleus of players could one day contend for a championship, which will never happen, as sure as the day is long.

So, as an Orioles fan, I will hope for the opposite. I will pray that these O’s channel the restless souls of JJ Bautista and Jeff Ballard and Rich Schu and Jim Traber and Eric Bell, and rekindle the spirit of ’88. If it is losing that we must have, then let us have losing. If everything goes right (wrong), if the veterans go down with injuries, if Lopez and Matthews prove to be three-month wonders and the bullpen falls apart from the strain of supporting a starting rotation wrecked by torn labrums, then this Orioles team could easily lose more than 100 games. And then, maybe then, the Orioles brass will finally have to confront the awful destruction they have wrought on this once proud franchise, and finally, finally, begin the slow, arduous, painful task of beginning again.

2003 ZiPS Projections - Click for info

PO Player          G  AB  R   H 2B 3B HR RBI BB  SO SB CS   BA  OBP  SLG
C  Gil           119 395 37  95 19  0 11  51 22  84  1  2 .241 .281 .372
1B Segui          96 361 56 111 25  1 10  62 42  67  0  1 .307 .380 .465
2B Hairston Jr.  129 442 58 112 23  3  6  38 40  61 23  8 .253 .315 .360
3B Batista       153 588 83 145 32  3 31  92 41 113  5  3 .247 .296 .469
SS Cruz          137 489 52 130 31  2  8  58 18  53  2  3 .266 .292 .387
LF Cordova       116 400 52 105 21  2 16  59 35  97  1  5 .263 .322 .445
CF Matthews Jr.  126 356 59  86 19  3  9  40 47  79 11  4 .242 .330 .388
RF Gibbons       123 431 64 109 27  1 23  61 41  62  1  2 .253 .318 .480
DH Conine        117 440 51 127 22  2 13  67 37  72  8  3 .289 .344 .436
c  Fordyce        79 236 25  57 15  0  6  23 16  44  1  1 .242 .290 .381
if Valentin       90 167 16  39 12  0  2  25 18  33  2  0 .234 .308 .341
ut Mora          135 483 71 117 28  3 13  56 55 102 14  8 .242 .320 .393
of Surhoff       121 425 56 113 29  1  9  51 33  49  8  2 .266 .319 .402
of Richard       120 427 65 108 27  2 16  63 42  90  9  7 .253 .320 .438

PO Player       W  L  ERA  G GS  IP   H  ER HR BB  SO
SP Lopez       12 12 4.26 29 25 167 172  79 19 56 114
SP Ponson       7  7 4.33 28 28 185 192  89 24 59 130
SP Hentgen      8 10 5.23 22 22 129 144  75 18 61  71
SP Daal         9 12 5.01 35 27 169 189  94 25 62  95
SP Johnson      6  6 4.64 26 25 157 166  81 22 57 106
SP Helling     11 13 4.86 32 32 198 214 107 32 69 133
RP Groom        4  2 3.45 70  0  60  59  23  5 13  45
RP Ligtenberg   3  3 4.50 53  0  60  58  30  6 34  49
RP Roberts      6  7 4.91 48 14 121 129  66 16 55  76
RP Ryan         2  2 4.25 61  0  55  48  26  6 31  56
CL Julio        5  4 3.53 65  0  74  65  29  6 28  69