Milwaukee Brewers

In team sports, there's a perfect symmetry between wins and losses. For every winner there is also a loser, thus preventing the dreams of countless members of the media who long for a variety of baseball in which all of the teams finish above .500.

Thankfully, for fans of most National League teams, there are a few teams out there with the courage to take the brunt of the losing. Teams possessed of enough kindness to allow the other teams in the league to collectively be above .500 every year.

One of those teams, of course, is the Milwaukee Brewers and they are slowly discovering that sausage with delicious red sauce of a mystery origin and shiny new architecture doesn't translate into success at the Major League level.

Even as seasons of the post-Molitor/Yount era tend to go, 2002 was one of the worst endured by Milwaukee citizens. Gone were the brief flirtations with contention during Phil Garner's reign as manager, replaced with the the first 100-loss season in Brewer history and the minor relief gained in that the half-game improvement of the 1999 season prevented last year from being the 6th straight declining season for the Brew Crew.

How does 2003 look for the Brewers? Every fall has its bottom and the Brewers will be hard-pressed to sink farther than 106 losses.

The Brewers' changes started in the front office with General Manager Dean Taylor finally being axed, replaced by former Ranger GM Doug Melvin, and Manager Jerry Royster getting his walking papers in favor of Ned Yost. Even fatherhood was overcome this offseason as Wendy Selig-Prieb was removed as team vice-president and CEO with the more business-oriented Ulice Payne Jr. getting the jobs.

On paper, it's hard to see how these moves fail to improve on the previous situation. Taylor was over his head as a decision-maker and while Melvin is the safe choice, he's also at least shown that he's competent at building an offense. Selig-Prieb's only accomplishment as CEO was doing an excellent job at fulfilling her father's wishes that the Brewers put other team's revenues into his pocket.

Ned Yost has unfortunately quoted the tired "fundamentals and defense roolz!" mantra since being hired but Royster did that also and has already proven himself to be hapless at implementing even that minimally-ambitious philosophy. It takes a great deal of effort to do anything as ill-advised as benching the team's most valuable offensive player for a week just to keep him from breaking a negative record.

Now, on to the players.

The Brewers replaced half of the infield this offseason, to mixed results. Richie Sexson and Eric Young both return, the only significant contributors from last year that will wear a Brewer uniform this year. Sexson, in the 3rd year of a 4-year contract that pays him $5 million in 2003 and $8 million in 2004, didn't come close to matching the 45 homers he hit in 2001, but still hit enough to end up with a perfectly adequate 279/363/504, leading the team in both OBP and SLG. Young didn't play as well as Sexson, hitting an unspectacular 280/338/369.

Keith Ginter also returns to the Brewers but despite probably being the team's best option at either 2nd or 3rd base, enters spring training as merely the easy favorite for the job of 5th infielder, with Rule 5er Enrique Cruz most likely grabbing the other infield backup slot. Former Royal Jed Hansen can contribute but he's unlikely to make the team unless the Brewers give up on Cruz.

Catcher, shortstop, and 3rd base all feature new starters for 2003. Gone and unlamented is Paul Bako, traded to the Cubs for Ryan Gripp. The Brewers have Robert Machado taking over full-time and likely providing a real, if modest offensive and defensive upgrade behind the plate. Signed to minor-league contracts are Keith Osik and Eddie Perez, both career backup catchers. Less likely to make the team is former Twins prospect Javier Valentin.

Over at short and the hot corner are what I believe are two big mistakes by the new regime. The Brewers expect a lot of Wes Helms but he really only looked good compared to who the Braves chose to play at third more often than not, the abysmal Vinny Castilla. Ned Yost has raved about Helms' power potential, but Helms remains a flailer who would be very fortunate to end up with an OBP above the .300 mark.

Royce Clayton takes over for Jose Hernandez (departed to Colorado along with Ronnie Belliard) and this might be the biggest downgrade on the team. When Clayton was one of the top defensive SS in the league and hitting 320/390, he's worthy of a starting job. Declining both offensively and defensively, the case simply isn't there. Clayton's only accomplishment in recent years was a hilarious shot he took at the White Sox after they released him in which he blasted the organization for not having faith in their star shortstop.

Nothing quite illustrates the Brewers problems as their starting rightfielder. An injury-prone handy 4th otufielder, Jeffrey Hammonds ended up being the recipient of an unbelievable 3-year, $21.75 contract as a free agent. The Brewers hailed Hammonds as one of the building blocks of a winning Brewer team when Miller Park opened. As expected, Hammonds unable to pretend that Miller Park was Coors Field and has hit what you would expect from a handy 4th outfielder, for only many times the cost the Brewers refused to pay Jose Hernandez. Hammonds at least set a career-high (!) mark for games played, being healthy enough to eke out 128, hitting a mere 257/332/397.

On the other side of the outfield, Geoff Jenkins has, unhappily for the Brewers, turned out to be as injury-prone as Mr. Hammonds and has yet to be healthy enough to prove that his terrific unheralded 1999 and 2000 campaigns weren't mere flukes. A lot, if not most, of the Brewer hopes for improvement rest on Jenkins finally coming back from a series of injuries, most notably his recent ankle surgery. The spring didn't get off to a good start for Jenkins as he already injured his wrist playing against the Cubs yesterday.

In the middle, you have Alex Sanchez. You may shake your head at his unimpressive .343 OBP in the leadoff spot but for Sanchez, that actually represents a major step forward for him. Like Tony Womack as a Pirate and a Snake, Sanchez is that replacement-level leadoff hitter who keeps getting the job year after year for no particular reason.

The other outfield jobs are up for grabs this exhibition season. Brady Clark and John Vander Wal are likely the winners but I wouldn't put it past Ned Yost to carry Scott Podesdnik north instead of one of them, which would be an unhappy turn of events for those who like to see the Brewers score runs. Mark Budzinski also has a shot to make the team but probably will be in AAA to start the year.

The top of the starting rotation, Ben Sheets and Glendon Rusch, both return for the 2003 season and can both be reasonably expected to better their 2002 campaigns. Sheets, who still is only 24, appeared to recover pretty nicely from some arm problems and improved as a pitcher in pretty much every department from his rookie season. Rusch doesn't have the upside that Sheets does, being older and generally less talented, but I think that his 2000 campaign represents what he can do if his control comes back a bit and he can cut back on the hanging curveballs a bit.

The rest of the rotation is a mixed bag. Despite protestations to the contrary, the Brewers were hoping that this was the year Nick Neugebauer would break through. He's gone for the year now. Another starting prospect, Ben Diggins, is likely to start in the minors.

Todd Ritchie, while a dreadful pickup for the White Sox, is a much better pickup as a free agent signed to a minor-league contract. He should return to the roughly league-average pitcher he was before his White Sox stint.

The final 2 rotation spots are likely going to free agent signee Dave Mlicki and slimmer (still not slim) Ruben Quevedo, who I still think has a great deal of upside. There's a good shot that neither of these 2 will be starting by midseason, however, as someone like Diggins or Ben Hendrickson could force their way into the rotation at some point this year.

Now we get to a sunnier subject. As happened frequently in the 90s, the Brewers had a bullpen full of unheralded names, depth, and a truckload of performance. With just one notable exception, Jose Cabrera, the Brewers got a lot from their relievers in 2002.

Mike DeJean, who became the closer because of Curt Leskanic's injury, has pretty much locked up the role for good after a 3.12 ERA in closing almost half the team's wins. Leskanic is back and so is his velocity, and will be a key to the bullpen's continued success.

Valerio de los Santos takes over as the head lefty after Ray King's departure after what everyone hopes was his breakthrough 2002. The second lefty role (if Yost wants one, which is likely) is being fought over by John Foster, acquired in the Ray King trade and Shane Nance, a strikeout machine in the minors who will have to overcome the stigma attached to being a short pitcher.

Also returning are Jayson Durocher and Luis Vizcaino, who combined to through 129 1/3 innings in 2002 with a sub-3 ERA.

Of the pitchers left that can make the bullpen out of spring training, the most intriguing is long-time Baseball Primer favorite, Brooks Kieschnick. While teams were always disappointed that he didn't develop into the superstar he looked to be in college, even the 220/295/405 he hit in the majors (which probably represents the lower end of his ability level) becomes unbelievably intriguing when combined with his new job, relief pitcher. A team with a lot of imagination can make great use out of a player like Kieschnick if he pitches well. The tactical possibilities of having a pitcher, in the era of 12-man pitching staffs, that is also one of the best hitters available on your bench are almost endless.

In the end, I expect the Brewers to show some modest improvement from their disastrous 2002 season. However, there's simply not enough upside on most of the team to push the Brewers into contention. I can see a 72-90 record being achievable and that's about where I peg them. It doesn't sound like much, but a 16-game improvement is a sizable accomplishment and may even bring a few people back to the Brewers' shiny new digs.

In a way, Brooks Kieschnick and Jeffrey Hammonds are symbolic of the the future and past of the Brewers. Hammond represents the past history of Milwaukee, of failure to evaluate players objectively and put them in roles they can succeed in. Kieschnick represents a possible future in which while not having the highest budget in the league, the Brewers can show imagination and creativity in developing a team.

PO Player        G  AB  R   H 2B 3B HR RBI BB  SO SB CS   BA  OBP  SLG
C  Machado      86 263 27  69 16  0  6  34 18  51  0  1 .262 .310 .392
1B Sexson      151 555 90 153 32  2 33 107 65 152  1  1 .276 .352 .519
2B Young       136 522 77 150 34  3  4  36 43  42 35 11 .287 .342 .387
3B Helms       105 320 36  77 17  3 10  42 18  71  1  2 .241 .281 .406
SS Clayton     123 398 54 102 18  3  8  43 29  77  8  4 .256 .307 .377
LF Jenkins      97 365 64 101 25  2 20  61 30 102  5  2 .277 .332 .521
CF Sanchez     114 418 61 118 14  6  1  31 28  66 32 15 .282 .327 .352
RF Hammonds    111 394 45 104 22  4  9  46 43  81  6  5 .264 .336 .409
c  Osik         50 105  7  22  4  0  2  13 10  23  1  0 .210 .278 .305
if Ginter      136 466 71 118 32  2 14  59 63 129  5  5 .253 .342 .421
if Cruz        139 489 64 121 20  1  5  32 23  72 23 12 .247 .281 .323
of Clark       115 307 47  78 19  2  7  39 35  37  6  4 .254 .330 .397
of Vander Wal  115 335 46  93 22  2 12  54 50 100  5  3 .278 .371 .463
of Podsednik   110 357 46  90 17  3  6  41 30  67 18  9 .252 .310 .367

PO Player          W  L  ERA  G GS  IP   H ER HR BB  SO
SP Sheets         12  9 3.62 31 31 204 197 82 18 57 156
SP Rusch          11 12 4.11 33 33 208 212 95 25 59 151
SP Ritchie        10 11 4.22 30 29 179 190 84 20 49 110
SP Quevedo         7  9 4.53 30 28 173 171 87 25 70 144
SP Mlicki          7 11 5.26 28 23 130 146 76 24 47  80
RP Leskanic        3  4 4.50 71  0  72  67 36  9 39  68
RP de los Santos   2  1 4.43 56  0  61  60 30  7 27  50
RP Durocher        3  3 3.88 53  0  65  55 28  7 34  70
RP Vizcaino        5  3 3.46 67  0  78  68 30  8 26  79
RP Nance           3  4 4.20 37  0  60  58 28  7 26  49
CL DeJean          3  4 3.91 68  0  76  70 33  6 37  62