Pittsburgh Pirates

The Pittsburgh Pirates are tired of losing. Pirate fans are sick of it. Owner Kevin McClatchy is sick of it. General Manager Dave Littlefield, Manager Lloyd McClendon, team leaders Brian Giles and Jason Kendall, down to the last man on the bench - ask anyone associated with the Pirates about the string of consecutive losing seasons that has reached 9 straight, and you'll hear the same refrain. But while it's all well and good to talk about breaking .500 and competing in the relative weak NL Central division, is the 2003 edition of the Pirates any closer to breaking into the upper echelon in the division? The Pirates did quite a bit of shuffling in the offseason, bringing in some help for the offense and a whole ton of new pitching arms, but when all is said and done, will the team really be any better off?

Here's a capsule summary of the team, as I see it shaping up:

I didn't want the Bucs to hire McClendon, In his two seasons, though, I think he's shown a lot more than I expected. He has gotten a lot of mileage out of a pitching staff with a lot of question marks, and is much better than Gene Lamont ever was at recognizing when a pitcher should come out of the game. His small-ball tendencies can be irritating at times, but I think that's largely due to the realization that the team he has isn't going to score a lot of runs and that he needs to squeeze out whatever he can get. The biggest problem that I see is that he'll make excuses for some guys who aren't productive (notably Kevin Young and Jack Wilson) while at the same time harping on the lack of productivity of other players (like Chad Hermansen). He'll be gone if the team doesn't crack .500 this year, but I think he's earned another chance to show what he can do with some more talent.

After a breakout 1998 season and an even better start to the 1999 season, Jason Kendall looked like he was going to be the best NL catcher not named Piazza for some years to come. Then came an absolutely gruesome ankle dislocation on a play at 1B - far and away the worst injury that I have ever seen on the baseball field - followed by nagging injuries over the last two seasons which have destroyed Kendall's power. Kendall is one of the more stubborn players out there - he wants to play every day, even when he's hurt and would be better served by taking time to heal - and the Pirates don't seem inclined to make him sit. There were clearly times last year when Kendall had no business being on the field. If Kendall is healthy, he should rebound this year; I think he'll easily exceed the ZIPS projection. The Bucs need him to rebound, because he's going to play; the 6 year/$60 million contract makes him virtually untradeable.

After three straight unproductive seasons from Young, the Pirates decided to acquire some 1B help and sent minor league pitchers Adrian Burnside and Roberto Novoa, plus a PTBNL, to Detroit in exchange for Simon. Simon appeared in 130 games for the Tigers as a 1B/DH, spending an entire season in the majors for the first time, and will form the LH-hitting half of a platoon with Young. Neither Simon nor Young is exactly known for plate discipline, but Simon did post a .320/.342/.510 log against RHP in 2002 and Young hit .283/.377/.519 against LHP a year ago, so a strict platoon situation at 1B should maximize their production.

Reese was acquired from Cincinnati prior to the 2002 season because the Bucs felt a need to upgrade their infield defense. He delivered that in spades, teaming with Jack Wilson to form a DP combination that reminded some people of the glory days of Mazeroski and Alley. The Bucs were second in the NL in double plays with 146 despite being a middle-of-the-pack team in terms of baserunners allowed, and Reese got a lot of the credit for that. He hit better than I expected, posting a career-high .330 OBP with a .264 BA. Injuries limited him to 119 games, and he's already missed time this spring with an injury. The Bucs would probably be happy if he repeated his 2002 performance in 135-145 games; I consider a dropoff more likely.

Ramirez's ill-timed display of temper against the Brewers on April 17, when he charged the mound after being hit by Ben Sheets and sprained an ankle in the process, wrecked his season. He was hitting .348/.407/.500 before the injury, but didn't hit at all afterward until August,. From that point, he did put together an outstanding month and a half before fading away again down the stretch. Reportedly, he came to camp in the best condition of his career, a good sign for those who have questioned his work ethic in the past. If he stays healthy, keeps his emotions in check and his body in condition, he's capable of being one of the top two or three 3Bs in the NL with the bat.

Lloyd McClendon loves him. He's got an outstanding defensive reputation that has yet to show up statistically in any of the defensive metrics (which peg him as average or below). His offense improved in 2002, as he got his OBP and SLG over .300, but he's still down near St. Rey levels. For the second straight season, he slumped at the end of the season, hitting .219/.265/.287 after July 31. The best position-player prospect in the Pirates' system (in my opinion), Jose Castillo, could be ready to push him by next season. I don't think he's strong enough to play a full season at SS, but as long as McClendon is the manager he'll be the SS. He could improve some more, but I think what you see is what you get.

Sanders will be a regular somewhere in the Bucs' OF this season, either in LF or RF depending on what happens with Lofton. Reggie gave the Giants an acceptable season as their regular RF in their run to the NL title, although he suffered through a miserable postseason. He batted .254/.324/.455 in his one season at PacBell and was more or less average defensively in RF there. The ZIPS projection seems to me to be about right.

Giles didn't see a lot of pitches to hit in the second half of the season, once it became apparent that he was the only real offensive threat in the Pirates' anemic lineup. Nonetheless, he had his best major league season at age 31, hitting .298/.450/.622 with 38 HRs and 103 RBI (despite batting behind a collection of low-OBP guys in front of him all season). His defense in center was adequate in 2000, poor in 2001 (in fewer games). Giles has made it clear that he wants to be put in one position and left alone there, and if he is put in CF and left alone there I think he'll be OK. He's one of the 10 best players in the NL, signed to a very reasonable contract.

Stairs was signed as something of an afterthought when the Bucs' planned deal for Daryle Ward fell through. His best years were as a DH in Oakland, and at this stage of career he's probably best used as a platoon DH and PH; he was pretty awful defensively for the Brewers last year, although he's still a pretty decent hitter. Wilson is younger, but is essentially a right-handed clone of Stairs; good bat, awful glove. In an ideal world, the Pirates would have stuck Wilson at first base and let him accumulate 500 plate appearances last year, but with Kevin Young and his $24 million albatross around, the Pirates weren't about to try that. The Bucs are apparently considering having Wilson be the #2 catcher, which might let them keep an extra bat on the bench.

If he signs, he plays CF and bats leadoff. His OBP has declined from very good to merely acceptable for a leadoff hitter, and he's clearly lost something in the field, as his postseason forays with the Giants showed. He'd likely be more productive than the Brown/Hermansen/Hyzdu/Mackowiak combos the Pirates ran out there last season, to be sure. Plus, the outfield defense would likely be better with Lofton in CF and Giles and Sanders on the wings than if the Bucs had to use Giles in center and the Stairs/Wilson platoon in right, although the overall offensive production probably won't be as strong. On balance, I don't think the Bucs gain very much by signing Lofton, especially if Craig Wilson's time goes down as a result.

The Pirates insist they will take 12 pitchers north, and if Wilson is not the #2 catcher and Lofton doesn't sign this is the likely configuration of the bench. The Bucs had an awful bench last year, with Nunez being used as the #1 PH against LHP when Wilson was in the lineup and such non-factors as Mike Benjamin and Keith Osik tying up roster spots. This group will be much better. Mackowiak is stretched as a regular (especially defensively) but was the Bucs' best pinch-swinger last year and should do at least as well as a 200-300 PA reserve as he did getting 440 PAs as a regular. Nunez is a decent defensive middle infielder, who can back up either middle infield position without much of a drop either defensively or offensively - in fact he might be better at both aspects than Jack Wilson, but we'll never find out. Cota is better defensively than was Osik. Adam Hyzdu and John Barnes, either or both of whom might have had a chance to stick before the Sanders signing, will likely be left out, although if Wilson is the #2 catcher and Lofton isn't signed one might stay.

The Pirates have some intriguing NRIs in camp. Barnes was the PCL batting champ a couple of years ago. While that should be taken with a grain of salt (as is Salt Lake City, which is where he was playing at the time), he's only 27, a gap hitter with doubles power, and frankly I don't a reason to prefer Sanders to him. 28-yo 3B Jose Fernandez, a former Expos and Brewers minor leaguer who hit 45 dingers in Korea last season, has been mentioned a couple of times by Dave Littlefield as a roster candidate.

Dave Littlefield went fishing for pitchers in the offseason, despite the team's obvious shortcomings on offense. He hooked a ton of arms to come into camp and compete for rotation and bullpen slots; I'm guessing that when the smoke clears these five will open the season in the rotation. This could be a pretty solid rotation, if all five pitchers are healthy, but someone needs to step up and be an anchor.

Benson was the Bucs' best pitcher down the stretch last year, posting a 2.25 ERA over his last seven starts and looking like the old Kris Benson for much of that period after Tommy John surgery cost him all of 2001 and the early part of 2002. The Bucs babied him last year, as he averaged just 5.2 innings a start, but if anyone is likely to step up and lead this staff it's Benson. Wells pitched a lot better than his 12-14 record would indicate, with really one only rough patch in August. Fogg was up-and-down, capable of allowing 8 ER in four innings one time, then allowing only three hits and 1 ER in 7 innings next time out, in Minute Maid Park no less. Suppan and NRI D'Amico have the best record of major league success among the remaining rotation candidates, who include holdovers Brian Meadows, Salomon Torres, and Joe Beimel, rehabbing Ryan Vogelsong, and NRIs Rolando Arrojo, Nelson Figueroa, Dennys Reyes, and Julian Tavarez. Suppan actually had a pretty good half-season for Kansas City last year, as he started well and finished well; unfortunately, it was marred by a lousy half-season that extended from June until August. I think that Suppan was miscast as a front-end-of-the-rotation pitcher who was expected to be a horse; given a lower-pressure assignment he's more likely to be successful. D'Amico was a pretty good pitcher for the Brewers when healthy, but he's battled injuries most of his career.

None of these pitchers - indeed, none of the rotation candidates - are strikeout pitchers. Most of them will need a good defense behind them in order to be successful over the long haul. This might be an argument for the addition of Kenny Lofton, although with the exception of the DP combination the Bucs didn't exactly have a quality defense out there in 2002 either.

Frankly, this is a crapshoot. The Bucs are going to take 12 pitchers north, and I think that given the limited options for LH pitchers in the rotation (where only Reyes could break in as a lefty) they're going to want three lefties in the pen. The only roster lefties, in addition to Sauerbeck and Beimel, are rookie Mike Gonzalez and Dave Williams, who is recovering from injury and has already been told he won't be on the 25-man roster to start the season. The NRI lefties are Reyes and Mike Holtz. Reyes is the best pitcher of the three, IMO (although his recent results don't show it), and I think he's a lock to be on the team. The Bucs liked Beimel's relief work last year, and I'd guess that his status as a roster pitcher and as a local boy will get him the other job over Holtz. Sauerbeck had his most effective season as the LH setup man, cutting his walks by about a third while maintaining his strikeout rate at more than a man an inning.

From the right side, Mike Williams saved 46 of the Bucs' 72 wins last year, setting a franchise record for saves in a season. Boehringer was a pleasant surprise as the RH setup man. Herges, acquired from Montreal for former Princeton hoops star and minor-league pitcher Chris Young and minor league pitcher John Searles, lost his job as the Expos' closer early last year and doesn't have a history of success; the Bucs are apparently hoping he'll be this year's Boehringer. I don't think he deserves a roster spot over Mike Lincoln, who pitched well in middle and long relief for last year's Bucs, but I think he'll get it. Tavarez is a guess on my part; Lincoln could hold an advantage because he's on the roster while Tavarez isn't, but Tavarez's ability to pick up spot starts, coupled with the health history of Benson and D'Amico, is likely to work in his favor.

The Pirates were over .500 (31-28) in games in which six runs or fewer were scored last year, which is mostly a tribute to the work of Boehringer, Sauerbeck, and Mike Williams. ZIPS doesn't particularly like their chances of doing it again, but I see no real reason to think there will be a significant decline in their performance.

The starting position players should be more productive, given returns to health by Kendall and Ramirez and more reliable performance from the additions to the outfield. The starting rotation should be better, with Suppan and D'Amico replacing Jimmy Anderson and a host of fifth starters, and Benson one more year removed from surgery. The bullpen should be at least as good as last year. The Pirates were 72-89 in 2002, so they need to pick up nine more wins to get to .500. On paper, they seem to have a pretty good shot at it.

So why don't I have a good feeling about this team? My mind drifts back to 1999. That year, the Pirates had some younger players with upside just waiting for a chance to play - Ramirez and Nunez and Chad Hermansen - and a starting rotation consisting of some pitchers with demonstrated ability, but none of whom had yet demonstrated the ability to anchor a rotation - Jon Lieber and Francisco Cordova and Jason Schmidt and Chris Peters. The Pirates decided to supplement the young rotation with some veteran talent. They picked up Ed Sprague and Mike Benjamin and Brant Brown to fill the slots, rather than giving shots to Ramirez and Hermansen and Nunez. The vets didn't help the team break .500 (although there was a modest improvement) - and the development of the youngsters was set back and possibly arrested for good in the case of the latter two players.

I also look back on the Twins, following the 2000 season. The Twins were in a similar situation, with a bad offense and a pitching staff with promise. The Twins chose not to go after veteran role players, but to give playing time to a host of younger players who weren't outstanding prospects, but who had some talent - to Bobby Kielty, and Jacque Jones, and Doug Mientkiewicz, and Torii Hunter. That team contended for half a season in the AL Central, and won the title last year with all of those players playing key roles.

The Bucs have some guys to whom they could give a similar chance, like Craig Wilson, John Barnes, Jose Fernandez, perhaps even Tony Alvarez and JJ Davis. The Pirates could have tried to pry loose one or two of Minnesota's current influx of outfield candidates - someone like Lew Ford or Mike Ryan or maybe even Jacque Jones. Instead, they've chosen the route followed by the 1999 Pirates - to increase the prospect of a .500 season in 2003. It has a good chance of working out (although it will depend on things other than the offseason acquisitions to make it happen), but I'd much rather see the Bucs try to become the Minnesota Twins of 2004, which with just a little foresight might have been possible.

2003 ZiPS Projections - Click for info

PO Player       G  AB  R   H 2B 3B HR RBI  BB  SO SB CS   BA  OBP  SLG
C  Kendall    146 554 77 158 25  3  7  49  53  46 16 11 .285 .348 .379
1B Simon      126 453 53 134 21  2 18  75  22  39  1  2 .296 .328 .470
2B Reese      123 431 51 105 22  2  7  45  39  84 19  2 .244 .306 .353
3B Ramirez    146 544 63 144 32  0 24  85  32  90  2  0 .265 .306 .456
SS Wilson     141 515 74 129 23  4  4  41  33  75  4  3 .250 .296 .334
LF Sanders    123 434 68 108 21  4 22  77  42 122 16  7 .249 .315 .468
CF Giles      150 514 97 157 34  6 35 101 113  73 12  5 .305 .431 .599
RF Stairs     116 329 50  80 18  0 15  58  50  83  3  1 .243 .343 .435
c  Cota       113 376 48  95 22  1  7  47  22 105  3  4 .253 .294 .372
1b Young      133 440 57 108 26  0 14  60  42 111  8  6 .245 .311 .400
if Nunez      114 308 35  76 12  2  2  22  31  51  7  4 .247 .316 .318
ut Mackowiak  126 390 55  99 23  1 12  50  31 107  9  4 .254 .309 .410
of Wilson     121 335 51  89 15  1 18  57  30 110  2  2 .266 .326 .478
of Lofton     129 498 88 132 24  6 10  56  63  75 24  9 .265 .348 .398
of Barnes      83 309 50  86 22  2  6  37  24  29  3  3 .278 .330 .421
of Hyzdu      123 387 58  92 24  0 18  68  45 105  1  2 .238 .317 .439

PO Player       W  L  ERA  G GS  IP   H  ER HR BB  SO
SP Benson      10 10 4.14 29 29 185 184  85 20 69 138
SP Wells       12 11 4.02 36 30 188 188  84 19 66 137
SP Suppan       9 10 4.39 34 34 213 228 104 26 65 131
SP Fogg         9  9 4.23 36 28 183 191  86 21 53 119
SP DAmico       6  7 4.09 25 21 141 148  64 17 35  92
SP Torres      10 10 4.05 31 29 189 196  85 19 56 121
RP Boehringer   3  3 3.74 57  0  65  61  27  5 28  53
RP Herges       6  6 4.15 66  0  91  92  42  8 34  64
RP Lincoln      2  2 3.90 49  0  67  68  29  6 22  45
RP Sauerbeck    3  2 3.44 75  0  68  54  26  4 38  76
RP Beimel       3  5 4.74 42 17 129 140  68 14 54  71
RP Reyes        3  3 4.01 53  5  74  70  33  6 37  70
RP Tavarez     10 11 4.38 34 25 156 169  76 10 65  76
RP Meadows      8 11 4.77 32 31 183 208  97 30 42 100
CL Williams     2  3 4.22 64  0  64  61  30  7 29  55