Colorado Rockies

For the last four years, the Rockies have had the Carolina Mudcats as their AA affiliate. The Mudcats are based in Zebulon, NC, and their ballpark is less than five minutes from where I work, so I have been "privileged" to see most of Colorado's better prospects over the past few seasons. Until last season, it hadn't been much of a privilege; only Juan Pierre (now traded), Ben Petrick, and Jason Jennings have made much of a dent at the major league level, and Petrick wasn't here all that long (for which Carolina backers have never quite forgiven the Rockies).

In 2002, however, a large chunk of the Rockies' likely pitching rotation of the future spent the first half of the season plying their trade at Carolina, leading the Mudcats to the first-half title in the Southern League's Eastern Division. Aaron Cook, Jason Young, and Cory Vance gave the Mudcats quality start after quality start, and while the Mudcats' slow start on offense sandbagged some of their efforts, the trio gave the Rockies hope that they might actually be able to build a rotation from within the organization. Both Cook (7-2, 1.42) and Young (7-4, 2.64) were promoted to AAA in mid-season, and Cook made it all the way to the big club by August. Vance (10-8, 3.77) spent some time on the DL in the summer, which likely held him back although he did have some service time with the Rox in September.

I don't know for sure that these guys can handle Coors Field. There are reasons to be leery of their ability to adjust to the rigors of high-altitude baseball. Having seen all three of them, I'd suggest that one adjustment problem they are likely to have is that none of them has outstanding stuff; none of the three is particularly good at keeping the ball out of play. But Jason Jennings did quite well for the Rox last year without plus stuff, and Cook also showed reasonably well in his first go-round in the majors. By the middle of this season, Young and Vance could follow. Chin-Hui Tsao, who missed 2001 with an elbow injury after an outstanding 2000 season and was kept in the low minors in 2002, could join the parade.by mid-2004.

The Rox also have a sleeper rotation candidate in Ryan Cameron. Cameron is not the type of guy who impresses scouts; he was pitching as a swing man at Carolina before the mid-season promotions of Cook and Young bumped him into the rotation. All Cameron does is keep guys off-balance and get them out. I saw Cameron pitch four or five times last year, and not once did I see him get hit hard. If he can master AAA this year, look out above.

So, Rockie fans, you do have reasons to be optimistic about the future. However, the road for 2003 is likely to have quite a few bumps in it (resisting the obvious pun). The Rockies have a number of positions unsettled, mostly in the infield. Here's my best guess at how the 2003 team shapes up:

Hurdle strikes me as a good managerial candidate for a developing team like the Rockies. He's knowledgeable about the game, open and reasonably candid with the media, and seems to command the respect of his players. I haven’t seen enough of the Rockies since he took over to comment on his in-game management skills, although from what I can tell he's done a good job handling the young pitchers like Cook, Jennings, and Denny Stark.

Acquired from the Marlins in Colorado's big offseason deal that rid the Rockies of the Mike Hampton millstone. I don't quite believe the ZIPS projection for CJ. He's coming off his worst season since 1996 (granting that he spent a lot of it on the DL), he's caught nearly 1000 games in the major leagues. He's a big guy (6'2", 250) and big guys don't usually wear very well behind the plate - plus he had some back problems last year. I think that the Rockies will be disappointed in his production, and might be looking to replace him before the season is over.

What's to say about Helton? He's one of the top hitters in the game at 1B, even with the Coors inflation considered, and a Gold Glove quality defender. He was the Rockies' recipient of the Roberto Clemente award for community service. He's very effective against LHP as well as against RHP. If there's a chink in the armor, it's that his production did fall off in the second half last season, he did have back problems last year, and he will be turning 30 this season. It would be a shame for the Rockies if he were to waste the productive portion of his career on second-rate teams; he deserves a chance to show what he can do on a national stage.

Incumbent Brent Butler is being pushed by ex-Marlins prospect Ozuna (acquired in the Hampton deal), and ex-Brewer Ronnie Belliard, who signed a minor league deal with a ST invite. The Rockies want Ozuna to win this job, and I think he'll probably start the season there. Ozuna was one of the guys who had a couple of years added to his age as a result of the beefed-up security last year, which dimmed his prospect luster. He's a fast guy with line-drive power who won't walk much and thus needs to keep his BA up in order to be a productive hitter. He generally makes contact, though, which is a plus in Coors where any ball in play has a decent chance of being a hit. Butler has a little bit of pop in his bat, and handles the keystone well enough defensively, but he was absolutely awful away from Coors (.201/.229/.308) and has shown little patience at the plate. Belliard regressed from a solid rookie season with the Brewers, in large part as a result of injuries, and the Brew Crew let him go rather than risking arbitration this past offseason. He's got the most upside of the bunch, and could take the job away from Ozuna later in the season, but I think he'll probably open at AAA. Ozuna will likely be an upgrade over the Jose Ortiz/Terry Shumpert/Butler combo that manned 2B last year, but I don't see him as likely to be anything more than a marginal regular.

This is another tough call. Jose Hernandez probably would have opened the season here, but he's now filling in at SS for Juan Uribe. The 3B candidates are Norton, ex-Red Chris Stynes, and Belliard. Norton and Stynes have been splitting the early playing time at 3B. Norton was a super sub for the Rox last year, filling in at 3B for the departed Todd Zeile and at 1B for Helton on occasion. That might work against him, but Stynes is, if anything, even more versatile, and ultimately I think the Rox will keep Stynes in the backup role and open with Norton. Hernandez will likely wind up here when Uribe is healthy. To be honest, neither Norton nor Stynes should be starting; they're good role players who are stretched as regulars.

Uribe is currently out with a fractured foot, which makes it likely that Hernandez will open the season here. After a good start as a rookie in 2001, Uribe fell off dramatically last year, and like many of the Rockies hitters was absolutely awful away from Coors (.195/.262/.247). His defensive rep is pretty good, and while his defensive stats are a bit below average, playing defense in Coors Field is a difficult task for the same reasons that pitching is diffcult and hitters have an advantage - if you put Uribe into a more neutral setting I think he'd be in the upper half of SS in the NL. He's posted pretty good defensive numbers at SS, and he's a far better hitter than Uribe. The Rockies would probably do better to leave Hernandez at SS, but my guess is that Uribe will return to the position once he's healthy.

Payton hit very well after coming over to the Rockies, but it was all Coors-fueled:

At Coors: .473/.524/.892

On Road (w/ Rox): .229/.253/.385

On Road (overall): .267/.299/.421

Payton will likely come back to earth this season; I don't think he'll be as good as the ZIPS projection would indicate. He's had good defensive numbers in CF, and would be better there than Preston Wilson, but the Rockies seem inclined to leave Payton in left.

Part of the bounty from the Hampton trade, Wilson's reputation outstrips his actual performance, in my opinion. He doesn't have good defensive numbers in CF, even in a ballpark that is as favorable to defenders as Pro Player has been; he's definitely a dropoff from Pierre defensively. He also declined offensively last year, losing a significant number of doubles, seeing his HR rate drop and his strikeout rate inch back upward. He's really not good enough to be a middle-of-the-order hitter; in an ideal world he'd probably hit sixth or seventh in the order, but the Rockies are likely to bat him cleanup. As with CJ, I think the Rockies will be disappointed in his production.

Although he is clearly into his decline phase at age 36, he's still the second-best player on the Rockies, and still in the top three in NL RFs in my opinion (with Vlad and Abreu). Like Helton, he's productive against LHP, enough so that Hurdle shouldn't fool around with trying to put Wilson in between the two of them.

I can hear the comments now: "Where's Jack Cust?"

Payton, Wilson, and Walker are going to be the starting outfield, with Kapler locked into the #4 slot (he's the likely backup CF). Cust and Petrick are competing for the #5 OF spot. Petrick is a converted catcher, and Hurdle has gone out of his way to make note that he likes the idea of having Petrick around as a possible third catcher; he has seen some time behind the plate in the first go-round of exhibitions. I read that as meaning that Petrick has the inside track for the #5 slot, since Cust is best suited to be a DH and has no defensive value at all.

With the exception of Estalella, who could be beaten out by Raul Casanova or Mandy Romero to back up Johnson, the other guys are pretty much locks to be on the team. Hurdle likely the flexibility that Stynes and Butler afford him in the infield, and Kapler can play all three outfield positions.

The first four are more or less set, although Hurdle hasn't yet committed officially to Cook as the #4 starter, mindful of the problems that Shawn Chacon had last year after being handed a starter's role early in ST. Elarton is competing with Chacon and Darren Oliver for the #5 spot in the rotation. All have been effective so far, but I think it's Elarton's spot to lose.

After Payton replaced the Todd Hollandsworth/Benny Agbayani platoon in LF last season, the Rockies may very well have had the best outfield defense in the league, with Juan Pierre between Payton and Walker. This certainly helped Stark, who is a flyball pitcher and who had good success as a starter down the stretch, especially in Coors. Neagle also pitched very well in August and early September (4-2, 1.93 in seven starts from August 3 through September 4). The defensive improvement may have helped Jennings, too, even though Jennings is a groundball pitcher - he had his best outings in August and early September, going 6-1 with a 3.40 ERA in seven starts between August 1 and September 2. The change from Pierre to Preston Wilson in center field is not likely to help the pitchers, and I would expect to see a dropoff in effectiveness across the board if Wilson remains in the middle pasture, with Stark in particular being at risk and Neagle and Elarton also likely to be affected. It's still a good group of starters, capable of giving Hurdle five or six good innings every time out and reducing the inevitable strain on the bullpen that seems to be a fact of life in Coors.

The Rockies have done a very good job over the years in building a bullpen, and this group will again be right up there among the good ones. Jimenez, who was part of the return for Darryl Kile, set a single-season franchise record for saves with 41 in 2002, and also has the career franchise record for saves (82). He's an extreme groundballer who does a good job of minimizing the damage at Coors (2.90 ERA there in 2002, 3.96 for his career). He sliced his walk rate dramatically in 2002, walking just 11 men in 73 1/3 IP. There's no reason to think he'll be any less effective in 2003. Reed, an original Rockie, is back for his second tour of duty in the Mile High City after splitting 2002 between San Diego and the Mets. He will likely share setup duties with Jones, who had his ups and downs in his first year in Colorado in 2002 but who, by and large, delivered what the Rockies expected from him. Fuentes, the lefty with the oddball delivery, did an acceptable job as the LOOGY in Colorado's pen, although he did better against RHB than against LHB in 2002; he enters 2003 as the #1 reliever in the pen. Speier established himself as the primary middle/long man in the pen last year, and did a remarkable job stranding inherited runners, allowing just 2 of 35 to score against him and pitching out of inherited bases-loaded jams on four separate occasions.

Going into spring training, Vic Darensbourg and Dan Miceli had the inside track for the last two spots in the bullpen. However, Hurdle was quoted recently as saying that Oliver is competing "for a spot on the staff" and that if he pitches well he'd be considered even if he doesn't win the fifth starter's job. I'm taking that to mean that Hurdle won't be put off by previous roles, and that he'll take the pitchers who have been pitching well. It's early, but Miceli and Darensbourg have been struggling while Oliver has done well and Serrano, a 22-YO rookie from the Phillies' organization, has been outstanding. Call it a hunch, but I think those two pitchers will open the season on the 25-man roster.

The Rockies have put together a pretty good pitching staff, with more help on the way, and have two marquee hitters in Helton and Walker. Unfortunately, the rest of their hitters aren't likely to be of much help, with the two big offseason acquisitions - Wilson and Johnson - likely to be disappointing and only Jose Hernandez likely to be a plus offensively. The team is deeper but not really significantly more talented than last year's aggregation, and I think the Rockies will do well to match last year's victory total.

2003 ZiPS Projections - Click for info

PO Player       G  AB   R   H 2B 3B HR RBI BB  SO SB CS   BA  OBP  SLG
C  Johnson    108 356  59 111 25  0 21  84 38 104  0  0 .312 .378 .559
1B Helton     153 552 117 188 46  3 38 127 99  90  6  3 .341 .441 .641
2B Butler     119 384  68 106 24  3  8  46 17  39  2  4 .276 .307 .417
3B Stynes     100 299  60  98 16  1 10  42 23  47  3  3 .328 .376 .488
SS Hernandez  141 496  87 154 24  2 28  93 45 182  4  5 .310 .368 .536
LF Payton     126 420  68 131 19  4 16  61 26  56  6  5 .312 .352 .490
CF Wilson     137 505 110 152 28  2 33 108 52 141 24 11 .301 .366 .560
RF Walker     123 433  89 147 34  3 24  99 65  82  8  5 .339 .426 .598
c  Estalella   77 237  37  56 17  1 14  48 35  70  1  1 .236 .335 .494
1b Cust       136 414  96 112 25  1 24  67 76 158  5  4 .271 .384 .510
if Belliard   114 387  79 111 24  4  9  51 43  63  4  3 .287 .358 .439
if Norton     102 189  25  48  9  1  9  37 22  57  1  1 .254 .332 .455
if Ozuna      116 349  63 114 18  3  6  45 20  48 16 10 .327 .363 .447
of Kapler     117 394  65 122 23  2 13  67 39  60 15  5 .310 .372 .477

PO Player     W  L  ERA  G GS  IP   H  ER HR BB  SO
SP Jennings  18 11 3.98 32 32 199 198  88 20 64 146
SP Neagle    10  9 4.98 33 30 179 193  99 30 67 125
SP Cook      13  9 4.27 33 29 200 222  95 20 51  96
SP Stark     13 11 5.04 33 26 157 171  88 26 60 103
SP Elarton    9 11 5.75 27 27 169 195 108 35 71 103
SP Chacon     8  6 4.87 28 28 168 171  91 25 80 132
RP Reed       3  2 4.35 64  0  62  66  30  8 18  40
RP Speier     7  4 4.17 57  0  69  68  32 10 20  59
RP Fuentes    8  4 3.77 51  9  98  83  41  9 51 101
RP Jones      3  2 3.99 74  0  79  76  35 10 26  68
CL Jimenez    5  2 3.73 69  0  70  72  29  6 17  46