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— BTF's Preseason Previews

Sunday, March 07, 2004

Milwaukee Brewers

Poor Doug Melvin and Ned Yost - or, depending on your point of view, lucky Doug Melvin and Ned Yost. The Brewers' baseball management team retooled almost the entire team in the offseason, thanks largely to a blockbuster deal with Arizona in which the Brewers cashed in Richie Sexson - a 2004 free agent who'd made it very clear that he would not be returning to Milwaukee. In exchange for Sexson and pitcher Shane Nance, the Brewers got some decent talent (Lyle Overbay, Chris Capuano, Jorge de la Rosa) and some space fillers who could hold the fort until the prospects are ready in a year or two (Junior Spivey, Craig Counsell, Chad Moeller). Milwaukee also made a couple of minor free agent signings (Ben Grieve, Gary Bennett), and re-signed a couple of guys to multi-year deals (Wes Helms for 2 years, Geoff Jenkins for 3). This more-or-less complete makeover of the team on the field would, in most years, have grabbed the lion's share of the headlines.

But these moves were overshadowed by the financial dealings of Chairman Bud and the Selig Clan. It started almost immediately after the season ended, when the team announced that the payroll would be reduced from $40.6 million in 2003 to around $30 million in 2004. In rapid succession, the following events grabbed headlines in the City That Miller Beer Made Famous:

  • the resignation (or firing) of club president/CEO Ulice Payne, who'd worked a minor marketing miracle in making a night at Miller Park sufficiently attractive to draw 1.7 million fans to watch a 68-94 team, for daring to publicly express concerns about the payroll reduction. The club left Payne hanging for several weeks while letting everyone know that Payne had, in fact, "signed off" on the payroll reduction, but the public was clearly on Payne's side.
  • a threat of a state audit of the Brewers' books (which was eventually softened to a "review" by the Legislative Audit Committee) and an investigation into the removal of state tax exemptions that the team had enjoyed
  • a cut of $4.7 million in the Miller Park budget for 2004
  • a decision by the Selig family to put the Brewers up for sale
  • a revelation on HBO's Real Sports with Bryant Gumbel that members of the Selig family, including Chairman Bud, First Daughter and Board Chairman Wendy Selig-Prieb, and First Son-In-Law and club VP Laurel Prieb had drawn salaries in excess of $2 million dollars while at the same time begging for public funding to construct Miller Park.

The public's attention was also diverted by an incident involving pitcher Luis Martinez, who was accused of shooting a man three times following an altercation in Santo Domingo. Martinez was not charged with a crime, but was released on waivers anyway and claimed by St. Louis, with GM Melvin saying the decision was a combination of a baseball decision and a "moral decision."

With everything that went on to distract the team in the offseason, the Brewers are probably happy to turn the attention back to the team on the field. There's no question that the team that plays in 2004 will be very different than the team that played in 2003, with a lot of different faces - but will that 2004 team be any better?

2004 is a transitional year for the Brewers. The young talent that the Brewers have been hoarding for the past few years - JJ Hardy, Corey Hart, Dave Krynzel, Brad Nelson, Kade Johnson, Ben Hendrickson, Nick Neugebauer, joined last year by Rickie Weeks and Prince Fielder - likely will be assuming key roles on the field late this year or early in 2005. But none of them will likely be on the team to start this season, and Milwaukee fans in 2004 will have to be content with players who are keeping the seats warm for the young talent to come.

Catcher: Chad Moeller, Gary Bennett (2003: Eddie Perez, Keith Osik)

The Brewers had a unique arrangement with their catchers last year. They assigned Perez and Osik to work with specific pitchers - for example, Perez caught Matt Kinney all season - and except for switching Ben Sheets and Wayne Franklin from Perez to Osik and Glendon Rusch from Osik to Perez in May, they kept doing it all year, even as pitchers went down and new ones replaced them. It doesn’t look like the Brewers will do the same thing this year, as Moeller appears to be the clear #1 with Bennett as his backup. Moeller, part of the booty for Sexson, played in the highest number of games of his career (78) last year in Arizona and was decent with the bat (.268/.335/.435). Bennett got into 96 games with the Padres (he missed some time with an injury) didn’t hit particularly well (.238/.296/.306). Perez and Osik combined weren't much different offensively in 2003. ZIPS likes Moeller's chances to do better in 2003, and I think he probably will be better than the Perez/Osik combination, so this position should improve as long as Bennett isn't playing more than once a week or so. Defensively, neither catcher was particular good at shutting down the running game, with Moeller nailing 26% of basestealers and Bennett 20%; this is a slight downgrade from Perez and Osik. Both of the new catchers have good reputations for pitch calling, with former catcher Bruce Bochy being especially high on Bennett's work with his young staff in San Diego last year.

1B: Lyle Overbay (2003: Richie Sexson)

Mark Grace Lite posted Grace-like numbers as a rookie in 2003 (.276/.365/.402) and since the Diamondbacks also had the original model, he was redundant there. His playing time declined as the season went on and he fell out of favor with Bob Brenly for reasons that aren't obvious, and when Sexson became available, the Diamondbacks jumped at the chance to make a deal for him, with the Brewers getting Overbay as a replacement. Overbay is a .342 career minor league hitter who hit a lot of doubles, and often those doubles turn into HRs as the player matures, although they didn't for Overbay in the BOB (just 4 HR). He's a definite step down from Sexson, but Mark Grace wasn't a bad guy to have around as an alternative to the big masher, and I think he'll do just fine. I think ZIPS might be a bit low for him; I could easily see 40 doubles and 20 HRs.

2B: Junior Spivey (2003: Eric Young/Keith Ginter)

Young went to the Giants in August after hitting .260/.344/.421 for the Brewers and Ginter filled in quite capably over the last month and a half of the season, but the Brewers like Ginter's versatility and will return him to the utility role he played for most for the season. Spivey, another part acquired in the Sexson deal with the Diamondbacks, was hurt much of last season, and his numbers dropped to .255/.326/.433 after a solid 2002 in his first full year. To be honest, I thought he was playing over his head in 2002, and that 2003 was actually closer to his real level of talent. Spivey will do well to match Young's 2003 performance; I think ZIPS has him a little high. He's about average defensively.

3B: Wes Helms

Helms was acquired from Atlanta prior to the 2003 season after two seasons as a fill-in corner man in the infield, and acquitted himself decently with the bat in his first year as a starter, belting 23 HRs and hitting .261/.330/.450. He's not especially strong defensively (UZR has him slightly below average) and there have been questions raised in the Milwaukee press about his footwork at 3B. With top prospect Corey Hart being moved to the outfield, and Helms signed for two more years, he looks safe for the near term, and there are plenty of worse options out there at 3B. He's a good bet to equal or better his 2003 numbers.

SS: Craig Counsell (2003: Royce Clayton)

The Brewers elected not to bring Clayton back after a .228/.301/.333 season, which was one of the smart things that they did in the offseason. Yost gave rookie Bill Hall a chance to play down the stretch, and Hall showed some pop, hitting 5 HRs in 155 PAs and slugging .458. His OBP was just .298, though, and while Hall will likely stick as an infield backup the full-time job is probably Counsell's. Counsell hasn't played a lot of SS over the years (a high of 415 1/3 innings in 2001) , but he has been a very good defensive 3B, and I think he'll probably be good defensively at SS. With the bat, Counsell had his worst season in the majors in 2003 (.234/.328/.304) and ZIPS doesn't project him to be much better than that in 2004 (or much better than Clayton was, for that matter). If JJ Hardy shows anything at all at Indianapolis, there's a good chance he'll be playing here before the season is out.

LF: Geoff Jenkins

The Brewers signed him to a 3-year deal with an option, which could be worth $39 million by the time it’s over. This was an unusual negotiating process, in which Jenkins was actually the driver. Unlike Sexson, he made it pretty clear very early that he wanted to stay in Milwaukee, and the Brewers weren't quite sure if he was being honest or not. Once Jenkins convinced them he was serious, the deal got done very quickly.

Jenkins is a good player, homegrown, and popular in Milwaukee. He's the Brewers' best player now that Sexson is gone - strong offensively and outstanding defensively in LF (there's been some talk of sliding him over to RF). However, I think this was a risky deal for the Brewers. Jenkins has missed time in each of the last three years due to injury, and he has yet to get all the way back to where he was in 1999-2000 (although he took a stride back in that direction last year, posting a .913 OPS). Is $7.5 million a year minimum worth it if Jenkins posts an OPS in the high-.800s (which is what ZIPS projects) and misses 20-30 games because of injury? The Brewers might very well be overpaying for Jenkins' production (especially if he slips back to the level of 2001-2002), and in any event with the payroll being set as low as Milwaukee's will be, it's not generally a good idea to commit a high percentage of that payroll to one player. I don't think Jenkins will slip in 2004 (ZIPS is probably a little low), but in 2005 and 2006 I think there's a real risk of a decline.

CF: Scott Podsednik

The biggest surprise of 2003, Podsednik took the CF job away from Alex Sanchez with a strong start out of the gate while Sanchez struggled, then continued hitting out of the leadoff slot, posting a .314/.373/.449 log and finishing second in the balloting for NL Rookie of the Year in both the BBWAA's vote and in Baseball Primer's vote. UZR doesn't like his glove, although he's got a good defensive reputation. There is nothing in Podsednik's minor league career that would have led one to believe that he'd hit like he did; a year earlier he'd hit .279/.347/.425 at Tacoma, which was the best he'd done in his minor league career to that point, and one would not normally expect a minor league hitter to post an OPS 50 points higher than the best performance of his career. ZIPS likes his chances of doing at least as well in 2004, but I don't. I see something like a .280/.350/.420 performance being more likely.

RF: Ben Grieve (2003: John VanderWal/Brady Clark)

Grieve suffered a blood clot that forced removal of a rib during the 2003 season, which curtailed his year after 55 games. He has really struggled since leaving Oakland following the 2000 season, after winning the 1998 AL ROY award there. Grieve signed a one-year nonguaranteed deal for $700,000 with $300,000 in playing time bonuses tack on, so he's not a terribly expensive gamble. At age 28, he's still got some time left to recover. He has a brutal defensive reputation, to the point that there has been serious talk about flip-flopping him with Jenkins, but UZR actually places him slightly above average. He's certainly no worse defensively than was VanderWal, who was absolutely brutal out there. I like his chances of recovering to something like his 2002 season with the Devil Rays (which is to say that I think ZIPS might be a bit low), and might match or exceed VanderWal's performance in 2003.

Bench: Keith Ginter, Bill Hall, Brady Clark

The Brewers will probably carry 12 pitchers, which leaves room for just three bench players plus Bennett. Milwaukee has been giving Hall playing time in the outfield, and Ginter can play there as well, so it's probable that these three guys will be the bench, augmented by Brooks Kieschnick if he makes the pitching staff (reportedly, he's been told that if he makes the team it will be as a pitcher).

Ginter and Clark were pleasant surprises off the bench in 2003. Ginter played a lot of 2B after Young was traded, played some 3B when Helms was injured, and acquitted himself well at both positions while hitting .257/.352/.427 and popping 14 HRs. He was a 2B by trade, a good minor league hitter blocked by Craig Biggio in Houston's system before being liberated along with Wayne Franklin in 2002 in a deal for Mark Loretta - which now looks like a steal for Milwaukee. Clark was picked up as a free agent in the 2003 offseason, played all three OF positions for the Brew Crew and hit .273/.330/.403. Clark will certainly spell Grieve and possibly Jenkins against LHP, and will give Podsednik a breather on those rare occasions when he comes out of the lineup.

Hall will probably play a fair amount of SS against LHP, and will also back up at 2B and 3B along with Ginter. As noted earlier, Hall was the regular SS late in the season for the Brewers, and acquitted himself fairly well, demonstrating surprising pop. He's probably best utilized as a utility infielder, which will be important on this team.

The Brewers carried Rule V player Enrique Cruz all of 2003, which seriously hampered their bench. Cruz played mostly as a pinch-runner and late-inning replacement, and got just 85 ABs in 71 games. He clearly wasn't ready to be a major leaguer, and was actually waived off the 40-man roster following the season. If the Brewers do elect to carry another bench player, the leading candidate is Texas and Cleveland expatriate Chris Magruder, invited as a non-roster player, who would fill the fifth OF role that Jason Conti and Mark Smith filled last season. Magruder is a switch-hitter, has some pop and a decent batting eye, and would be a serviceable bench player. Chris Coste would be a better hitter off the bench, but doesn’t really have a position (he's been a 1B/C in the minors, and not particularly good at either); the Brewers tend to like to have flexibility off the bench. Overall, the Brewers' bench is about what you might expect it to be - role players who aren't good enough to be regulars but don't hurt you filling in.

Offensive Prognosis:

The Brewers are worse off at one position (1B), likely to be better off at one position (C), and about the same, maybe slightly better, everywhere else. Milwaukee scored 714 runs in 2003, eleventh in the NL, and I think they'll be in that range again. The Brewers did very well to get as much as they did for Sexson; Counsell, Spivey, Overbay, and Moeller are all serviceable major league players who will keep the Brewers from dropping to Dodger levels offensively while the youngsters get settled in Indianapolis and Huntsville.

Rotation: Ben Sheets, Doug Davis, Matt Kinney, Wayne Franklin/Chris Capuano/Adrian Hernandez/Wes Obermueller

Sheets and Davis are locked in. Kinney is almost locked in. Going into spring training, Franklin looked like the #4 starter, with Capuano (more booty for Sexson) and Obermueller battling for the number #5 slot. But "El Duquecito", in camp as an NRI, has impressed Yost and pitching coach Mike Maddux, and has forced his way into consideration for a rotation slot.

Sheets is the workhorse. He's won 11 games in each of his three full major league seasons, with ERAs in the low-to-mid 4s each year. His strikeout rates and K/BB ratios have been decent, and he takes the ball every fifth day (34 starts in both 2002 and 2003). I don't think he's a great pitcher, but he's a good front-end-of-the-rotation guy; he'd probably win 15-18 games or so on a good team. I'd compare him to someone like Brad Penny (I think he's better than Penny, actually - but that type of pitcher).

Davis is tentatively pencilled in as the #2 starter. He pitched very well for the Brewers after being rejected by Texas and Toronto in 2003, going 3-2 with a 2.58 ERA in eight starts. He lives on the edge, as a finesse-type lefty who allows more fly balls than the norm. When he's hitting his spots and keeping guys off balance, as he did for Texas in 2001 and Milwaukee last year, he's a serviceable back-of-the-rotation starter. When he's not doing that, as he was not for the Rangers and Jays last year, he gets hit pretty hard. Maddux did help Davis make an adjustment to his delivery when he came over last year that helped his command, so perhaps he can sustain his 2003 levels. But I don't think that's going to happen, and I think he'll regress from last year.

Kinney was picked up from the Twins prior to 2003. He won a starting job early and kept it all year, finishing 10-13 with a 5.19 ERA in 31 starts and two relief outings. He walked far too many hitters (80 in 190 innings) and was pitching serviceable ball most of the season until a brutal September (0-4, 21 ER in 20 2/3 IP in four starts) drove his ERA over 5. A flyball pitcher (despite having a good sinker) with good but not great stuff, he's another back-end-of-the-rotation guy.

Adrian Hernandez doesn't have much of a track record in the US. He didn't pitch well in two seasons as a starter in the minors, but had a good season as a spot starter and long reliever for Columbus in 2003, going 8-5 with a 3.21 ERA and striking out 103 in 101 innings. His walk rates have been high (4.3 BB/9 IP in 404 minor league innings), but he's done a decent job of keeping the ball in the park and he's fanned more than a hitter per inning throughout his minor league career. If he can throw strikes, the Brewers might have themselves a find. (Is he really only 29?) Yost, Melvin, and Maddux have really liked what they have seen so far. He's got more upside than Kinney, Davis, or Franklin.

Like Kinney, Franklin won a starting job in spring training last year after four good starts following his acquisition from Houston in 2002. Like Kinney, Franklin was up-and-down in 2003, and also had a brutal September (0-3, 7.99 ERA in five starts). Also like Kinney, he allows a lot of flyballs and walks too many hitters (94 in 194 2/3 IP in 2003). Because he's a left-hander, and has shown a tendency to struggle after going through the lineup once or twice, Franklin might be sent to the bullpen, where the Brewers have a shortage of lefty relievers. At best, he's a #4-#5 starter, also.

Capuano is a 25-YO lefty with good K rates in the minors until he got to AAA, who got 33 innings with the Diamondbacks last year and was 2-4 with a 4.64 ERA and 23 Ks in those 33 IP. Included in those games, though, were 7-inning, 3-hit, 0 ER efforts against the Padres in July and the Dodgers in September, both at the BOB. He had good ERAs and low HR totals throughout his minor league career (except for his 2001 season at El Paso) and he keeps the ball down and has good movement on his pitches. He could be anywhere from the front to the back of the rotation.

Obermueller, picked up from Kansas City, took over Glendon Rusch's rotation spot near the end of last season. He was 2-5 with a 5.07 ERA in 11 starts and one relief appearance, with just 34 strikeouts in 65 2/3 innings. He was a bit unlucky, as he pitched well enough to win several times only to get a no-decision; he didn’t get his first win until September 21 despite having six quality starts in nine tries prior to that. He pitched better than his ERA indicated. The Brewers like his aggressive approach to hitters, but I think he'll probably be the odd man out.

The way it looks right now, the rotation will be Sheets/Davis/Kinney/Hernandez, with either Franklin or Capuano #5 and the other lefty in the bullpen. I'd bet on Capuano to start.

Closer: Danny Kolb

Kolb wasn't even on the Brewers when 2003 started, and didn't throw his first pitch in a Milwaukee uniform until June 18, but when Mike DeJean struggled out of the gate and Leo Estrella was found wanting, Kolb took over as the closer in mid-July. All he did was to record 18 straight saves before blowing one against the Giants, and wind up saving 21 games in 23 tries (he'd blown one before becoming the closer). Overall he posted a 1.96 ERA and fanned 39 in 41 1/3 IP. Kolb had shown flashes of talent while with the Rangers but never the sustained performance he showed with the Brewers. Kolb is your basic fastball/slider guy, although he does have a changeup in the works as well. I think he's a good bet to sustain a performance at or near the level of his 2003.

Bullpen:

The Brewers have done a pretty good job cobbling together a bullpen in recent years, even though the cast changes constantly. This year, the cast is a little more stable than in past years, with a couple of pitchers already nearly certain to make the team, but there is still plenty of competition. Leo Estrella, who came over from Toronto to go 7-3 with a 4.36 ERA, will probably be the setup guy for Kolb, as he was at the end of the 2003 season. Luis Vizcaino, who had a horrible season in 2003, will get a chance in middle relief to show that 2003 was a fluke and that 2002 was not. Dave Burba, who pitched well in a relief role after failing as a starter following his acquisition last summer, will like be back in a long/middle relief role. Either Capuano or Franklin will get innings in middle relief. Oh yeah - and Mike Crudale. (You knew that was coming, right?)

There's a lot of competition for the last spot. Brooks Kieschnick will get a chance to show he's more than just a hitter/pitcher combination. Rule V pick Jeff Bennett could stick as a long/middle man. NRI Chris Michalak might get a job as a LOOGY, or the Brewers could turn to young lefties Jorge de la Rosa (more Sexson booty) or Matt Ford - although the team would probably prefer both to be in the Indianapolis rotation. Travis Phelps, picked up from Tampa, and NRI Brian Bowles will get long looks. If the Brewers carry 12 pitchers, as seems likely, I think the relievers will be Kolb, Estrella, Vizcaino, Burba, Franklin, Michalak, and Crudale.

Pitching Prognosis:

Milwaukee had a staff ERA of 5.02 last year, third from the bottom in the NL. The Brewers are certainly deeper on the mound than they were in 2003, and the pitchers (especially in the pen) are of better quality, in my opinion, but except for Sheets and possibly Hernandez or Capuano, the starting candidates are back-end-of-the-rotation filler. Sheets and Kinney are likely to show some improvement. Hernandez and Capuano will be a definite improvement over the assorted fourth and fifth starters the Brewers had last year, although both will take some time to adjust. Davis is the only real potential trouble spot that I see. The rotation should be quite a bit better, especially later in the season. I also think the bullpen will improve as well. Yost and Melvin have both mentioned is that last year's bullpen had a number of pitchers who were "one and done"; they couldn't go more than one inning without faltering. That shouldn't be the case this year. The Brewers allowed 873 runs last year; an improvement of 30-40 runs is a reasonable expectation, in my opinion, and going below 800 is not out of the question.

Manager:

Ned Yost did a lot of good things last year. His imaginative usage of Perez and Osik to catch specific pitchers helped their development, in my opinion. He used a set lineup most of the season, even when substituting - when Ginter replaced Young he batted second, when he replaced Helms he batted sixth, and when Clark replaced Jenkins late in the year, he batted third. He kept his bench players (except for Cruz, where he really didn't have much choice) fresh. He wasn't afraid to make moves to help the team - dumping Sanchez for Podsednik, replacing DeJean with first Estrella and then Kolb, using Hall instead of Clayton late in the season. The Brewers won three more games than Mr. Pythagoras figured them to win. I suspect that Melvin is quite happy with what he has, and I think Yost is a good manager for the team that the Brewers have now. It doesn't hurt that he's always accentuating the positive.

The Future

By the end of 2005, the Brewers could have this team on the field:

1B - Fielder

2B - Weeks

SS - Hardy

3B - Helms

LF - Hart

CF - Podsednik or Krynzel

RF - Jenkins

C - Moeller and/or Kade Johnson

P - Sheets, Hendrickson, Neugebauer, Hernandez, Capuano, de la Rosa

Hart, Hardy, and Krynzel will all start at AAA Indianapolis (along with Brad Nelson, who is a longer shot). Weeks will start at AA Huntsville, while Fielder will likely start at high-A High Desert but could be in Huntsville before June.

I got a good look at the Brewers' top prospects when Huntsville made the Southern League final series against the Carolina Mudcats last year. Hardy, 21, wasn't particularly impressive the first time that I saw him during the regular season, as several balls went by him that look fieldable, but that may have been because the visibility was particularly bad that night. He was outstanding defensively in the final series, showing good range and a strong arm. At the plate, Hardy showed a good batting eye, with more walks than strikeouts, and decent pop. If he continues to play well at Indianapolis, I think he'll be the first of the top prospects to make it to Milwaukee to stay, perhaps by August.

Hart, 22, the Southern League MVP, drove in 94 runs while hitting .302/.340/.467 (tough park, tough league). His power is still developing, and his strike-zone judgment still needs some work. But he can flat-out hit. The Brewers are trying to find him a position because they want his bat; he can't really play 3B.

Krynzel, 22, regressed from the ground he'd gained in 2002, batting .267/.357/.357. He can fly (43/64 in SB), and he can cover the ground in CF. His walk rate dropped and his strikeout rate went up, and his power production was down even considering the differences between High Desert and Huntsville. He needs to get something back in 2004.

Hendrickson, 22, missed some time in the regular season, pitching just 78 1/3 innings and going 7-6 with a 3.45 ERA with 28 BB and 56 Ks. In the postseason, he had one shaky start against Birmingham and one outstanding effort, allowing just 1 hit in 7 innings against the Mudcats before losing on a series of seeing-eye ground ball hits and a key error by Hart. He's not particularly overpowering, but works the corners well and keeps the hitters off-balance.

The Brewers have reason to be excited about their future. Whatever Dean Taylor's other faults, his organization did a good job infusing talent into the lower minors, and that crop is getting close to the majors. None of the nearly-ready players is particularly likely to be a star player, but all should be solidly average or above-average, and Hart and Hardy do have star potential. Add Weeks and Fielder and the Brewers have the core of a pennant contending lineup, with solid pitching if Neugebauer can get healthy and Hendrickson can stay healthy. The pieces are starting to fall into place. It will probably be at least 2006 before the dust settles, but I like the Brewers long-term chances.

The Present

The Brewers played at the level of a 65-win team in 2003. The team, particularly the pitching staff, will be better in 2004. The Brewers have more options for pitching arms in 2004 than they did in 2003, and the alternatives are better pitchers than the available choices were in 2003. Fueled by improvement from the mound staff, the Brew Crew should win at least 70 games this year, and they could vault ahead of Cincinnati and Pittsburgh to the top of the have-nots in the NL Central. They probably won't reach .500 - the offense isn't likely to be enough improved to close that gap - but the overall improvement on the field will be noticeable.

2004 ZiPS Projection
Name               P    AVG   OBP   SPC    G   AB    R    H  2B  3B  HR  RBI   BB    K  SB  CS 
Jenkins*           lf  .286  .363  .512  111  430   68  123  27   2  22   76   49  108   2   1 
Overbay*           1b  .298  .373  .440  133  470   59  140  34   0  11   65   52   88   1   1 
Podsednik*         cf  .298  .365  .425  136  497   80  148  27   6   8   56   48   82  32  11 
Grieve*            rf  .261  .376  .404  124  445   57  116  26   1  12   58   74  115   5   1 
Weeks              2b  .282  .346  .437   28   71   12   20   6   1   1    8    5   15   1   0 
Hart               3b  .285  .343  .454  130  487   79  139  28   3  16   69   38   91  20   7 
Moeller            c   .279  .353  .443   79  262   33   73  17   1   8   37   30   61   1   2 
Nunnally*          lf  .240  .360  .437  118  396   65   95  18   3  18   59   70  122  10   8 
Ginter             2b  .256  .354  .419  133  449   64  115  27   2  14   60   52  113   2   3 
Coste              c   .294  .345  .412   96  381   43  112  25   1   6   46   26   46   0   0 
Spivey             2b  .263  .353  .418  125  438   65  115  23   3  13   56   51   93   7   5 
Helms              3b  .257  .332  .446  123  404   46  104  19   0  19   65   36  108   0   1 
Kieschnick*        mr  .243  .319  .465    0  243   32   59   7   1  15   39   25   60   1   0 
Magruder#          lf  .262  .334  .423  102  343   48   90  19   3  10   44   34   63   4   2 
Krynzel*           cf  .256  .358  .352  128  469   79  120  10  10   5   35   71  105  33  15 
Clark              rf  .257  .328  .373  121  303   33   78  18   1   5   33   24   38   9   3 
Durrington         2b  .261  .333  .365  121  403   65  105  21   3   5   40   44   74  18  10 
Liefer*            1b  .234  .298  .409   94  286   35   67  15   1  11   40   24   89   0   1 
Scarborough        ss  .243  .311  .383  123  441   50  107  27   4   9   48   40  114   4   6 
Hall               ss  .259  .309  .376  141  513   66  133  24   3  10   56   33  114   9  11 
Machado            2b  .253  .335  .307  119  407   64  103  11   4   1   29   46   53  21   7 
Counsell*          3b  .243  .330  .318  110  387   49   94  16   2   3   33   48   49   7   6 
Johnson*           c   .222  .327  .309   88  275   32   61  10   1   4   25   40   48   1   1 
Cruz               3b  .253  .319  .317  113  375   53   95  10   1   4   34   33   52  22   9 
Knox               cf  .235  .293  .309  117  417   54   98  21   2   2   33   29   86  24  12 
Bennett            c   .230  .287  .300   90  287   21   66  12   1   2   23   20   45   2   1 

Name                  ERA   W   L   G  GS     INN    H   ER  HR   BB    K 
Kolb                 3.63   3   2  52   0    62.0   52   25   2   29   59 
Sheets               3.99  13  12  33  33   210.0  208   93  23   50  160 
Capuano*             4.12   9   9  28  26   153.0  145   70  14   55  127 
Crudale              4.50   4   4  60   0    64.0   61   32   8   25   57 
Kieschnick           4.50   1   1  44   0    60.0   60   30   7   22   45 
Davis*               4.60   9  12  29  28   172.0  179   88  18   61  109 
Vizcaino             4.63   3   4  72   0    72.0   66   37  12   27   75 
Burba                4.63   6   8  33  21   140.0  142   72  15   54   98 
Bennett              4.63   6   7  32  14   101.0  104   52  10   39   62 
Bowles               4.83   5   4  64   0    69.0   66   37   4   42   54 
Phelps               4.86   4   5  49   4    76.0   71   41  11   35   74 
Neugebauer           5.00   5   9  23  23   108.0   93   60  13   70  118 
de la Rosa*          5.04   6   9  27  25   125.0  119   70  13   70  103 
Wiggins*             5.05   3   3  53   0    57.0   59   32   6   27   39 
Ford                 5.05   5   8  29  17   114.0  122   64  13   49   68 
Diggins              5.06   7  10  25  24   128.0  129   72  14   65   92 
Kinney               5.13   7  12  29  28   163.0  165   93  26   69  134 
Obermueller          5.16   8  14  30  28   171.0  182   98  20   75  101 
Ford*                5.19   3   6  22  13    85.0   90   49  11   38   56 
Childers             5.29   3   6  38  10    97.0  107   57  16   34   59 
Santos               5.37   5   7  36  19   129.0  138   77  17   60   95 
Estrella             5.42   3   5  48   4    73.0   82   44   9   32   35 
Franklin*            5.53   7  14  36  29   179.0  193  110  27   84  115 
Liriano              5.55   6  11  27  27   146.0  145   90  24   79  128 
Hernandez            5.73   6   8  27  18   113.0  118   72  16   64   89 
ZiPS Projections are not playing time predictors; they project a player's performance given playing time in the majors in their accustomed role. As with all projections, specific knowledge of non-statistical attributes of the player should temper what the computer says.
Mike Emeigh Posted: March 07, 2004 at 12:00 AM | 12 comment(s)
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   1. Transmission Posted: March 06, 2004 at 11:12 PM (#614875)
Terrific work. As Unfrozen said on the Cleveland post, it's been a delight to read such consistently good work coming from a different source each day.
   2. Mike Emeigh Posted: March 06, 2004 at 11:12 PM (#614881)
It pained me to see Sexson traded but based on the player's age, skill set, and potential replacement (Fielder) I agree with the decision to trade him. I just wish the Brewers had received his true value in return.

That was going to be hard to do, under the circumstances. Everyone knew that Sexson was going to be traded once it became clear that the Brewers were going to slash $10 million from the payroll and that Sexson was almost certain to walk after his contract expired. The Brewers did very well to get three serviceable major league players and two good young arms for him.

But if the Brew Crew is to avoid a Tiger-like nadir they need to toss some kids into the breach and find out whose a man.

That's more or less what the Tigers did in 2002 (Infante, Munson, Santiago, half the pitching staff). I'm of the opinion that all of their young position players need at least a half-season at AAA, possibly a full season, before they'll be ready to contribute. I don't think the team looks at Counsell, Spivey, Grieve, et. al. as anything other than short-term roster filler. The only two guys they've signed for more than this year are the two guys (Helms and Jenkins) who offer something like value beyond neing a space-filler.

A rotation filled with back of the rotation guys is a disaster waiting to happen (ask Toronto, and Sheets certainly aint Halladay).

Capuano has a reasonable chance to be better than back-end fodder. So does El Duquecito. de la Rosa could be, too, although I doubt he'll be a starter in Milwaukee this year. I'll agree that Davis, Kinney, and Franklin are back-end guys, but I think part of the problem with Kinney and Franklin last year was that they had to go deeper into games than Ned Yost would have liked because of the black hole that was Brewer middle relief for most of 2003, and their overall numbers suffered as a result; I think Yost will be a little quicker to remove his lesser starters this year because the back end of the staff will be better.

This is hardly a championship pitching staff, but I do think it's better than it was last year.

-- MWE
   3. Mike Emeigh Posted: March 07, 2004 at 11:12 PM (#614887)
12 pitchers 8 starting position players 3 bench players 1 Gary Bennett --- =24

Duh. For some reason my brain said 9 starting position players. Too much AL news, I guess :)

This is the same arrangement the Brewers used last year (2 backup IF, 1 OF, 1 C), which left room for PH/13th pitcher Kieschnick.

Kieschnick didn't come on board until the end of April, after Todd Ritchie went out. I don't know if the Brewers would have opted for Kieschnick if they hadn't been carrying Enrique Cruz, which deprived them of a real bench player; Kieschnick allowed them to make up for Cruz. Since they won't be carrying a Rule 5 position player this year, they will have room for an additional bench player who can really contribute beyond pinch-runner (Chris Magruder has the inside track on the last job, from what I've been reading) and Kieschnick's dual role becomes less important. He'll have to win a job as a pitcher.

-- MWE
   4. Jason Posted: March 07, 2004 at 11:12 PM (#614889)
Lot's of little comments, but a good overall review.
1) I think the pitching staff has the chance to be better if for no other reason than avoiding the gigantic sucking of Rusch and Quevedo. Still it's hard to get too excited when it looks like 4 of 5 rotation spots will be holdovers from last year. Sheets is due to take a step forward and I think Kinney is ripe to as well, but after that the magic 8 ball gets cloudy. Kinney is interesting because he allowed so many HRs last year with men on base that if the coaches are right and he just needs to focus more in those situations he could see dramatic improvement.

2) Brooks pitched like a not so good long man last year, but had phenomenal power numbers. If he can improve his pitching just a bit he essentially becomes that one dimensional slugger you'd like to keep for his bat but can't justify because he's a DH even off the bench.

3) Pods might have had his career season, but he does have both his performance the year before at AAA and a high round draft pick as indicative of serious talent. A comparison to Phil Nevin in the late breakout mold. Realistically though I think your estimate for him was about right, essentially a league average CF.
   5. Mike Emeigh Posted: March 07, 2004 at 11:13 PM (#614906)
Kinney is interesting because he allowed so many HRs last year with men on base that if the coaches are right and he just needs to focus more in those situations he could see dramatic improvement.

Kinney allowed 27 HR last year - 18 with runners on, or 66.7% vs. the MLB average of 41.5%. He allowed 58 runs on those 27 HR - 2.15 runs per HR, vs the MLB average of 1.58. So yes, I would say that allowing HR with runners on was one of Kinney's problems.

I think a bigger problem for Kinney is that he runs out of gas after about 70-80 pitches or so. He walks a lot of guys, as I noted in the article, and has a lot of deep counts - and as a result I think he gets gassed earlier than most pitchers. Kinney averaged 3.74 pitches per batter faced last year, which means it was taking him about 34 pitches, on average, to get through the lineup once. That usually means that he was pushing 90 by the time he got into the sixth inning. Because the Brewers' middle relief was so bad last year, Yost chose to leave Kinney out there at times when he was clearly laboring, and Kinney's ERA paid for it; 13 of the 27 HRs off Kinney came after his 76th pitch of the game. If Kinney can shave about 3-4 pitches off each time through the order by throwing more strikes, the deeper bullpen should help him.

-- MWE
   6. Evil Twin Posted: March 07, 2004 at 11:13 PM (#614910)
Deeper bullpen? Kolb and a bunch of guys that Zips projects with a 4.50 ERA or worse? Yeah, noone is likely to be as bad as Vizcaino was during the first half of 2003, but that "deep bullpen" could still be a significant weakness. Could you expand on that comment a bit?
   7. Mike Emeigh Posted: March 08, 2004 at 11:13 PM (#614936)
One question though - why so ambivalent about Brooks Kieschnick? I would have thought that the sabermetric crowd would be enthused by the idea of a pitcher/hitter and the roster flexibility that he gives you. Especially for extra inning games in the National League.

Everything that I've read coming out of the Brewer camp suggests that they're not going to put Kieschnick on the roster unless he makes the pitching staff. What I try to do, when I write a preview, is to communicate what it seems the team is likely to do - not so much what I think they should do - so if it seems as though I'm ambivalent about Kieschnick it's because the team appears to be that way.

Much of what Kieschnick did last year, as I noted earlier, was to cover the hole on the bench left by the choice to carry Enrique Cruz all season. If the Brewers are carrying *real* bench players, Kieschnick doesn't expand their options all that much. There are few extra inning games (maybe 2-3 per team/season where you use up your entire bench, at most) where having a pitcher who can hit makes much of a difference. The Brewers' reluctance to use Kieschnick on the mound in anything other than low-leverage situations also reduces the value of his dual role - especially when they often would use him for an inning, let him bat in the pitchers' spot, and then replaced him anyway after he'd hit. He wasn't saving them a pitcher in those cases, only a bench player (usually Cruz).

-- MWE
   8. Mike Emeigh Posted: March 08, 2004 at 11:13 PM (#614937)
Deeper bullpen? Kolb and a bunch of guys that Zips projects with a 4.50 ERA or worse? Yeah, noone is likely to be as bad as Vizcaino was during the first half of 2003, but that "deep bullpen" could still be a significant weakness. Could you expand on that comment a bit?

I expect Vizcaino to pitch better, as he did in the second half last year, and I think Franklin and Michalak are likely to post better numbers in relief than they did/would as starters, because both pitchers tended to struggle after going through the lineup a time or two. Burba also pitched much better in relief than he did as a starter last year. I wouldn't expect ZiPS (or any projection system) to take those types of role changes into account. Crudale never quite found a niche under Tony LaRussa, but his major league numbers have been very good in his limited opportunities; I think ZiPS is far too pessimistic there. de la Rosa could also factor into the bullpen mix at some point, and he's likely to be better than anything the Brewers had out there in the early part of last year.

Again, the point here is not that this is a championship bullpen, but that the pitchers out there in 2004 are likely to be better than the pitchers that the Brewers had out there in 2003.

-- MWE
   9. Evil Twin Posted: March 08, 2004 at 11:13 PM (#614938)
I can accept Vizcaino is likely to pitch better and the Brewers aren't likely to tolerate anyone who pitches that bad again.

Still, the Brewers bullpen last year was right around average and I see no evidence of upgrades. Plus they even had some good luck last year with Curtis Leskanic coming back from injury and being effective. In fact, for a lot of the pitchers returning I think it's very likely that they'll be significantly worse, Estrella especially. And there's no evidence that Wayne Franklin will be effective in any role. Toss in a random injury or two and I'd expect a bullpen ERA in the upper 4's, just like last year.
   10. Jason Posted: March 08, 2004 at 11:13 PM (#614939)
I personally think Brooks will pitch well enough for Ned to put him on the staff. They seem to be leaning towards a rather large staff with the expectation that more of the guys will be able to soak up 2 innings a crack instead of a Larussian pipe dream scenario. Because of that Brooks doesn't have to be great merely not bad. I don't think the Brewers we're comfortable enough last year to use him better, but if he is not bad on the mound I see more usage. Remeber he was the DH for a number of interleague games too, and that has some value for an NL team.

More generally prior to last year the Brewers had managed to consistently put together a pretty solid bullpen, and that history seems to transcend any particular GM. So I'd wager they'll be a couple of steps more effective as a whole and with as many options as they have more willing to move on.
   11. Mike Emeigh Posted: March 08, 2004 at 11:13 PM (#614946)
And there's no evidence that Wayne Franklin will be effective in any role.

Franklin was decent through 30 pitches last year (OPS against of .757, which projects to an ERA in the low fours). His OPS jumped to .921 on pitches 31-45, but dropped back to .704 on pitches 46-60; he got lit up after that. Almost all of the effect in pitches 31-45 was due to HR allowed (the BA and OBP against were comparable to the first 30 pitches, but he allowed 10 HR on pitches 31-45). That suggests to me a concentration problem rather than anything else, and also suggests that if he gets by that first hump he can be a pretty effective pitcher for 60 pitches or so.

-- MWE
   12. Evil Twin Posted: March 09, 2004 at 11:13 PM (#614956)
I'm not at all convinced that the 30 pitch mark is any sort of meaningful split. He's 30, has mediocre at best control, less than overpowering stuff, and won't be getting the benefit of extended warmups in a relief role. Righties killed him last year and he lost his effectiveness after 1 time through the order. I really think it's likely that he'll be less effective than Valerio De Los Santos was in a similar role. My assessment is that Kolb will likely be a bit worse, but no worse than the Dejean / Kolb combo, Estrella is likely worse, Burba is unlikely to repeat a 3.53 ERA, Vizcaino is likely much better, and everybody else likely worse or the same as the parts that were taken up by De Los Santos and Leskanic last year. It's certainly not clearcut to expect improvement.

I don't want to make this into a big argument. It's a minor nit in an excellent article. But, I believe the fact that Doug Melvin has already stated that he's a bit worried about the bullpen and looking to add some pieces before the end of spring training is something to be considered. This really was easily the most optimistic article I've seen on the Brewers bullpen situation.
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