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— BTF's Preseason Previews

Sunday, March 14, 2004

Pittsburgh Pirates

One of the little-publicized stories of the offseason in Pittsburgh had to do with the shakeup among the Bucs’ partnership. Block Communications – which owns the Post-Gazette – pulled out of the Pirates’ ownership group in August of 2003, while Chip Ganassi sold his share in February of 2004 at the same time that William Allen (who retained his ownership stake) resigned from the board. The statements from the departing members of the partnership were carefully worded, along the lines of "we were involved because we felt it was our civic duty to keep the team in Pittsburgh, but now that the mission has been accomplished, it’s time to go". Since Kevin McClatchy felt it necessary at the time last summer to go out of his way to dispel rumors of trouble - and since the limited partners were also asked last summer to put more money into the team - I have no doubt that the Pirates' fire sale last summer was fueled in part by McClatchy's troubles inside the partnership. This should make it clear now - if it wasn't before - that the team's management is focusing on sustaining the bottom line.

The events of the 1998 offseason led McClatchy to change the direction of this team, and nothing that has happened since has been able to deflect the momentum from that change. I’ve written about this at length before, and I don't see the need to go into all of the details again. Simply put, McClatchy’s approach to managing this team has been shaped by two events that happened in rapid succession that year:

    • the team’s 5-25 crash down the stretch that season, in which the team didn’t even look competitive in many of the games, and which was widely blamed on an over-reliance on young talent;
    • the near-destruction of plans for a new ballpark in Pittsburgh, as a result of the failure of the Regional Renaissance Initiative in the November 1998 election, in which the opponents of the initiative made maximum use of the team’s lack of competitiveness (as well as McClatchy’s carpetbagger intentions and implied threats to move the team if the RRI failed).

From that point forward, the Pirates have become focused on maintaining the illusion of competitiveness on the field, to the point that the team has become the most risk-averse organization in baseball. In part, this is because McClatchy is concerned that the fans won't support a team that doesn't look like it's going to be competitive, and believes that unless there are some recognixable names out there the attendance (and therefore, his bottom line) will suffer. There's a revealing line in the article that I linked above discussing the team's problems last summer, in which Bob Smizik talks about McClatchy's attitude:

He remains upbeat about the future and sees a new economics in baseball -- as was the case this year -- giving the Pirates a pool of talented but low-priced veterans who will help them field a competitive team in 2004.

McClatchy says nothing about "talented but low-priced young players" from his own farm system, or even "talented but low-priced players young players" from other teams who could help this team be competitive in 2004 and beyond - no, he talks about "talented but low-priced veterans" for 2004. And that, in a nutshell, defines the team's problem. There's always pressure coming down from above on the GM - whether that GM be Cam Bonifay or David Littlefield - for the quick fix, to keep the team competitive during the next season. And that pressure, in turn, leads to:

    • a draft and development strategy that focuses on pitching and up-the-middle defense at the expense of impact hitters. There's a perception that good pitching is harder to find than good hitting, and that it's easier to build a team around a pitching-and-defense strategy than a hitters-first strategy. Furthermore, a team that loses low-scoring games is perceived -rightly or wrongly - to be closer to being good than a team that loses higher-scoring games, because "all it takes is one or two more good hitters" (again, there's a thread of "good hitters are easier to find than good pitchers"). In fact, I think the opposite is true; good hitters are "harder" to find than good pitchers. Most successful teams don't get that way until they develop one or two quality hitters, or pay through the nose to buy one in free agency or from another team.
    • a commitment to move prospects slowly, and not to feed them into the major league lineup until they are "ready" - meanwhile harping on all of the things that they aren't doing, downplaying all of the things that they are doing, and constantly explaining why the latest good-looking prospect "isn't ready to play yet". Ironically, this doesn't apply to players acquired from other organizations - only to players developed from within. There's no obvious reason why Jason Bay should be getting a shot ahead of JJ Davis or Tony Alvarez , or Jack Wilson should continue to play SS while Jose Castillo gets moved into a competition with Bobby Hill and Freddy Sanchez (in which he's running third).
    • a situation where, even when acquisitions work out well, the team is still in a rut. Last year's talented low-cost veterans - Kenny Lofton, Reggie Sanders, Randall Simon, Matt Stairs, Jeff Suppan, Jeff D'Amico - worked out about as well as they team could have reasonably expected, and the Bucs won 75 games. The veteran acquisitions in 2002 - Pokey Reese, Armando Rios, Mendy Lopez - were a more mixed bag, and the Pirates won 72 games. In 2001, there was Derek Bell, Mike Fetters, Ramon Martinez, Omar Olivares, and Terry Mulholland, most of whom didn't work out as the Bucs won 62 games. In 2000, John VanderWal worked out better than the Bucs could have expected, as did Luis Sojo, who had one of his best seasons. The Bucs won 69 games and got Gene Lamont fired. In 1999, it was Pat Meares, Mike Benjamin, Ed Sprague, Brant Brown, and Pete Schourek; the Bucs won 78 games.

This year's crop of talented low-cost veterans include Chris Stynes, Raul Mondesi, Daryle Ward, Orlando Merced, Randall Simon (again), Chris Truby, Juan Acevedo, Jose Mesa, Mark Guthrie, and Rick Reed. Not all of these players will make the team, but some of them will, and some will be cast in key roles. The Bucs will have a lot of recognizable names - again - and will look almost competitive at times - again - and will probably win 70-75 games - again. And Kevin McClatchy will give out another round of quotes about how the new economics of the game will let the Bucs select from a pool of talented low-cost veterans to build a competitive team in 2005.

It makes it really hard to get excited about a new season. I've been a Pirate fan since I was old enough to comprehend that they existed, and I still want to see them do well. But there's a part of me, deep down inside, that hopes that all of the veterans tank, the fans stay away in droves, and McClatchy decides to sell the team to someone who is willing to take a long-term view of things.

Rant over. Now back to reality.

C – Jason Kendall

At least until someone is willing to take his contract off McClatchy’s hands, anyway. Kendall’s problem is that he signed a deal at what was then a fair market price – and then he (a) got hurt, which took away what power he was developing and (b) watched the market slide down, down, down. The contract, and his propensity to say what’s on his mind no matter who gets annoyed by it, makes him the focal point of a lot of discontent, and obscures the fact that he's a net plus to the team on the field. Kendall is what he is – a high-BA, high-OBP, limited-power hitting catcher. He’s not Mike Piazza or Pudge Rodriguez, and he never will be, but he’s still one of the better hitting catchers around. As Bill James once said about Rickey Henderson, he’s the type of player that a rebuilding team should want to keep, and it’s sad when you have to trade someone like him away. If he goes, and especially if Cota takes over the job, he'll be missed. Craig Wilson will probably be his backup again. JR House is the future, but he has to stay healthy for more than five minutes at a time and prove that he can hit at AAA.

1B – Randall Simon/Craig Wilson

Simon was acquired in a trade with Detroit prior to the 2003 season, and the Bucs later sent him to the Cubs in their summer purge of the roster. He’s one of manager Lloyd McClendon’s favorites, he does hit RHP reasonably well, and the Bucs are concerned about Craig Wilson’s bat against RHP, so Littlefield brought Simon back as a free agent, signing him to a one-year deal with an option for 2005. Like Kendall, Simon is what he is – a guy who will swing at anything, and almost always make contact with what he swings at. He has to hit .300 to be of much value to a team, because he won’t draw more than a walk a week, won’t hit more than about 15 or so HRs, and is a liability with the glove. He’s not a terrible player, which is why he’s here. Simon has a little bit of a history of odd behavior – he was reportedly let go by the Braves because of some problems in the clubhouse, and there was the infamous sausage whacking when Simon took a bat to one of the Brewers’ costumed food items during a between-innings race last summer.

Craig Wilson, over the course of his major league career, has hit .322/.414/.595 against left-handed pitching, and .249/.340/.450 against right-handed pitching. Those RHP stats, by the way, are not much different than Randall Simon’s splits against RHP over the last three years (.302/.332/.466), although Wilson’s OBP is inflated to some extent by 35 HBP vs RHP, which nearly matches his walk total (46). Unfortunately, the Pirates also see Wilson’s relatively high strikeout numbers against RHP (about 1 every 3.5 PAs) and look at him as a liability against RHP. The "Free Craig Wilson" movement is in full swing, but it’s not going to happen in Pittsburgh; Wilson is going to be a backup catcher, platoon 1B with Simon, and OF starter when Mondesi or Jason Bay need a rest. As Lloyd McClendon is fond of saying, Wilson will get his 300 PAs –he should be getting more, but the Pirates probably won’t give it to him.

2B – Bobby Hill/Freddy Sanchez (2003: cast of thousands)

Pokey Reese got hurt early in 2003, and missed almost all of the season. The Bucs spent the entire year searching for a replacement, with Jeff Reboulet getting most of the time and Abraham Nunez and Rob Mackowiak getting innings as well. Pittsburgh picked up Hill in the Ramirez/Lofton deal. Sanchez came after the Pirates originally traded Scott Sauerbeck and Mike Gonzalez for Brandon Lyon and Anastacio Martinez. When Lyon was found to be "damaged goods", Lyon and Martinez were sent back to Boston for Gonzalez, and the Pirates tossed in Jeff Suppan for Sanchez. Sanchez was hurt almost immediately after reporting to Nashville, while Hill suffered a lower back injury after being recalled to Pittsburgh in September. Except for a single appearance by Hill in September, neither player appeared in a game for the Bucs in 2003. Sanchez will likely start the year on the DL, with Hill likely to get the early nod at 2B, although Nunez and Mackowiak could play there as well.

The 26-YO Hill has throughout his career posted decent batting averages and on-base percentages, but has shown little power potential, with a pedestrian number of doubles and single-digit HR totals. There are questions concerning his defense and his ability to hold up over a full season, and he’s struggled in his major league trials. ZiPS seems to be to be a reasonable expectation of what he’d put up over a full season. Again, that’s not a terrible player, but there’s not much upside there – maybe .800 OPS tops.

Sanchez, also 26, is a similar but slightly better player than Hill. He crunched IL pitching last year to the tune of .341/.430/.493 before getting a quick look-see in Boston, where he didn’t get a chance to play much. An ankle injury ended his season after just one game at Nashville. ZiPS might be a little high, giving him undue credit for his AAA blast, but .285/.365/.400 seems to me to be quite reasonable, and he could crack .800 OPS. He’s reportedly OK with the glove.

Either Hill or Sanchez will be an offensive upgrade over the cast of characters who appeared there last year for the Bucs. When both players are healthy, I think Sanchez will have the edge.

3B – Chris Stynes (2003: Aramis Ramirez/Jose Hernandez)

Stynes continues to be picked up by teams who look at his 1997 and 2000 seasons and expect something like that to happen again. Here’s a hint: It probably won’t. Stynes, 31, won Colorado’s 3B job in spring training of 2003, and had what appears to be a decent year, hitting .255/.335/.413 – but away from Coors Field, he managed to hit just .218/.312/.315. ZiPS is far too optimistic; I think something like Stynes’s 1998 season in Cincy or 2002 effort with the Cubs is far more likely, maybe .240/.315/.375. Stynes was good defensively at 3B in 2003, which will be a welcome switch for Buc fans who got tired of watching Ramirez drift off into never-never land and boot easy ones. The Pirates will probably be very disappointed in Stynes’s bat, though– hopefully disappointed enough to shift Sanchez to 3B to allow both Hill and Sanchez to play.

SS – Jack Wilson

Jack Wilson won an arbitration case with the Pirates, largely because the arbitrator was impressed with the fact that he’s been a regular shortstop for nearly three years. He hasn’t been a very good one, mind you; he’s overrated defensively for the same reason that Rey Ordonez is, and he’s only a bit better at the plate than St. Rey. Wilson makes all the right noises about improving his batting eye, drawing walks, wanting to hit second, etc., but he’s shown no evidence of actually being able to do those things. He added a few HRs to his line last year at age 25, but otherwise his stats were nearly identical to his 2002 season. He could take another small step forward, but he’s never going to be a good hitter, and the theatrics aren’t worth it. If this were my team, Jose Castillo would be at shortstop from day 1.

LF – Jason Bay (2003: Brian Giles)

Bay was acquired in the deal that sent Giles to San Diego. The 25-YO OF had a monster season for Portland, hitting .303/.410/.541, and Dave Littlefield held out for a long time on the Giles deal until Bay was included. He held his own in his first significant PT in the majors after the deal, drawing a lot of walks and hitting .291/.423/.506 in 97 PAs with the Bucs. I’m a little bit less high on Bay than most people are; his minor league numbers are distributed somewhat oddly (20 HRs but only 11 doubles at Portland) and he’s been up-and-down a bit in the minors. I think he’ll be a good, solid player, and so does ZiPS, but I don’t see him as being a star. I think .380/.500 is his likely upper limit. Bay is likely to spend at least some early time on the DL, which means Craig Wilson will get some time here early, and possibly JJ Davis and Rob Mackowiak.

CF – Tike Redman (2003: Kenny Lofton/Redman)

After Lofton was traded to Chicago, Redman took over in CF and excited the Bucs down the stretch, hitting .330/.374/.483 with 16 doubles and 5 triples. When I look at Redman, I think Adrian Brown. Adrian Brown did something very similar to this in 2000, at age 26, hitting .315/.373/.432 in 104 games. Brown had a decent minor league career, occasionally putting up stretches like his 2000 numbers when he'd had a chance to repeat a level (he did it in low-A ball in 1995 and high-A ball in 1996), but he didn't really project to sustain that level of performance. The Bucs handed him the CF job in 2001, and he promptly got hurt. Coming back a year later, he didn't hit, and posted a low-.700s OPS at Pawtucket in 2003. That was, in retrospect, a more realistic expectation for Brown than any expectation that he'd maintain his 2000 performance. Redman's 2003 season, also at age 26, has no real parallel in his previous minor league career. Redman does look as though he's cut down on his swing in order to make more contact; his strikeout rates dropped significantly over the past two years. But he's probably not going to continue to hit .330, or even .300 - and he doesn't walk enough or drive the ball hard enough to have much value if he doesn't. A .720-.730 OPS might be a reasonable expectation; ZiPS is far too optimistic.

RF - Raul Mondesi (2003: Reggie Sanders/Matt Stairs)

Both Sanders and Stairs performed beyond anything the Pirates could have hoped for in 2003. Mondesi will be hard-pressed to match that level of production. The 33-YO Mondesi bounced back some in 2003 after two years of average-to-below average production, hitting a combined .272/.343/.484 for the Yankees and Diamondbacks. Arizona let him depart as a free agent, and the Pirates zeroed in on him fairly early in the process but couldn't get his signature on a contract until just before spring training was ready to start. Like Simon, he signed a one-year deal with a club option for 2005. Mondesi is the one signing I have the least problem accepting; he's still got a reasonably productive bat, and although ZiPS sees a decline those numbers aren't too bad. His defense is average at best at this stage of his career, and frankly (like Dave Parker) I think the arm always overshadowed the rest of his defense, which wasn't as good as his rep.

Bench

Your guess is probably as good as mine is at this point. The Bucs will carry 12 pitchers north, most likely, leaving room for five bench players, plus a replacement for Bay. Craig Wilson will be one of them. Abraham Nunez has seen a lot of time in the early going, and he will probably make the team as well. McClendon likes Rob Mackowiak, who can play a lot of positions (none of them particularly well). Jose Castillo is playing a lot, hitting very well, but while McClendon is making noises about taking the best 25 north regardless of who they are, I'll be surprised if Castillo opens in Pittsburgh. The Bucs are taking a good long look at Ruben Mateo and Henry Rodriguez as backup OFs; both have seen a lot of early time and are performing quite well. Ward hasn't played much, and Merced has but hasn't hit much; both are on the bubble. Chris Truby has a shot at making the team. JJ Davis is out of options, and won't clear waivers if he's sent down, so with Bay hurting the Bucs will probably carry him and delay the decision until Bay is healthy. Davis has also been hitting very well, and hopefully will make the decision very hard. My best shot for the bench players right now is C. Wilson, Mackowiak, Nunez, Mateo, Davis, and H. Rodriguez.

Offensive Outlook

The Bucs actually had a league average offense last year, finishing seventh in runs scored with 753. They'll be very hard-pressed to match that this year, with improvement likely at only one position (2B) and declines likely across the outfield and at 3B. I can see the team dropping below 700, but I think 710-720 is more likely.

Starting Rotation - Kip Wells, Kris Benson, Josh Fogg, Oliver Perez, Rick Reed? (2003: Wells, Fogg, Jeff D'Amico, Jeff Suppan/Brian Meadows/Perez, Benson/Salomon Torres)

Nothing is more typical of the bottom-line mentality of the Pirates than the decision to give Kip Wells the ball in what turned out to be a meaningless game against the Cubs in the last game of the 2003 season, rather than allowing Jeff D'Amico to make the start (for which he was on schedule) and earn a bonus for making 30 starts.

The five pitchers have been given the spring training starts so far, and unless Reed totally implodes (which is certainly possible) or the Bucs decide to use up an option on Perez (which is also certainly possible) I think those will be the starters when the season opens. Ryan Vogelsong could sneak into the rotation in place of Reed or Perez, with Meadows and Torres longer shots as the Bucs think both are better in the pen. Sean Burnett is a real longshot, but he's been mentioned as a possibility; I think there's maybe a 1% chance of that happening.

Kip Wells was one of the best pitchers in the National League in 2003, his 10-9 W/L record notwithstanding. However, any enthusiasm has to be tempered a bit because his walk rate is still a bit high (3.5 walks per nine innings), his strikeout rate is a bit low (6.70 per nine innings) and he was a hit-lucky in 2003 (his DIPS ERA was 4.50 - thank you Jay Jaffe - compared to his actual ERA of 3.28). He mixes speeds well, keeps the ball down, and kept left-handed hitters under control pretty well in 2003. ZiPS sees a fallback to something closer to his DIPS ERA, and I think that will probably happen, although I'm a bit more optimistic than ZiPS - high 3's or low 4's. He deserved a better fate last year. Wells is probably not a #1 starter on a good team, but he'd probably be in the front/middle. He's getting close to the point where he'll be expensive, and Scott Boras is his agent, so he's not going to settle for a lesser contract; he could be a trade candidate when one of the younger pitchers coming up (Burnett, John VanBenschoten) is ready.

Benson has yet to achieve what was expected of him as a #1 overall pick, largely because of injury. The Bucs seriously overpaid for him when they inked him to a long-term deal a couple of years ago, and he likely would have been traded last year had he not come up injured again. He's added a cut fastball to his repertoire this year, and if he's healthy and gets off to a good start, expect the trade rumors to heat up again. I think he'll better his ZiPS projection if he's healthy; he's about as good a pitcher as is Wells if he's 100%.

Fogg missed some time with an injury last year, and declined across the board from his rookie season. He pitched better after coming back from the injury, but he was 10-9 largely because the offense helped him out a lot. Fogg doesn't have great stuff, and tends to wear down quickly. There have been some suggestions that he be moved to the bullpen (he was a closer in college), but I don't think he's got good enough pitches for closing, either. He's a marginal/back-end-of-the-rotation guy, who could come in slightly better this year than last but probably wouldn't have a job on a better team. He's a good candidate for a non-tender when he becomes arbitration-eligible after this season.

Perez was acquired from San Diego in the Giles deal. Just 22, he's got the best arm on the staff, but his mechanics need a lot of work, and his slider comes and goes as a result. He didn't pitch particularly well after coming over to Pittsburgh, and lefties were able to hit him pretty well (.842 OPS, albeit in just 80 PAs). He's got by far the most upside of any of the starting candidates, but has a lot of work to do to harness his stuff. I could see him becoming the staff ace and winning 15 games with an ERA in the threes, or I could see him going 4-10 again and being sent down for six weeks to work on his control. ZiPS might be the best bet.

Reed was invited to camp after signing a minor league deal, and has the inside track on the fifth starter's job right now. The Pirates had him before he was good (he was a replacement player and later pitched for the Bucs in 1988-1991) and now have him again after he's been good. The 39-YO Reed had a horrible season with Minnesota in 2003, losing a strikeout per nine innings, while adding nearly a walk and a hit per nine innings. I think he's at a stage of his career where it will be difficult for him to succeed unless he's in a big ballpark; he gives up a lot of flyballs, and he's lost enough so that many of them will be big flies unless the park keeps them in play. I'd peg his odds of being successful at less than 50-50, and I expect Vogelsong, Torres, or someone else (possibly Corey Stewart, also picked up in the Giles deal, or David Williams, once he's shown he's healthy) to be here before long.

Closer - Jose Mesa

He's competing with Juan Acevedo, but I think ol' Joe Table will win that battle. This is another example of the veteran mentality surrounding this club. The Pirates have some in-house options that might be good closers - Salomon Torres pitched well in relief last year, Fogg was a closer in college as I noted earlier, Mike Gonzalez has a live arm and quality stuff, and Mark Corey had 30 saves at Nashville last year (albeit with a rather high ERA). Any one of those guys could do the job. But none of them are going to be considered for the job; instead, the choice will be between two "proven closers", one of whom will be 38 and saw his peripheral stats collapse last year, and the other of whom was so well thought-of that after a 28-save season with a bad team in 2002 he was a free agent - and he had to scuffle to find a job with the Yankees, who unloaded him after a series of horrible outings. I honestly don't know what to think about Mesa; he had two very good seasons in Philly before imploding last year, but before that he hadn't pitched well since 1997. I don't see any reason to expect a "last hurrah" from him.

Bullpen - Brian Boehringer, Salomon Torres, Mark Guthrie, Joe Beimel, Brian Meadows, Jason Boyd

If the Pirates run true to form, these will be the six pitchers who wind up backing up Mesa in the pen. Mark Corey, Mike Gonzalez and John Grabow should be getting shots out here, but likely won't be on the staff at the start of the season. Boehringer illustrates the dangers of trying to build a bullpen on the cheap. Picked up as one of those "talented but low-cost veterans" prior to 2002, Boehringer was outstanding as a setup man out of the bullpen. The Pirates rewarded him with a two-year deal after that season, and Boehringer proceeded to do a complete flip-flop last year. His walk rate went up, his strikeout rate went down, he allowed twice as many HR, and he added two runs to his ERA.

The basic problem with all of these guys is that none of them have any significant upside. None of these guys will blow you away, and all of them have to be at the absolute top of their games to be successful; they have absolutely no room for error. Having one or two of these guys in middle relief wouldn't be too bad, if you could supplement with a harder thrower like Gonzalez or Corey. Having all of them out here is a prescription for disaster; they're all too much alike, all likely to be no better than the mid-4s in ERA. The bullpen was a sore spot for the Bucs all year in 2003, and there are no indications it's going to be any better in 2004.

Pitching Outlook

The Pirates allowed 801 runs last season; only four teams allowed more in the NL. Trying to figure out where this team is likely to end up is difficult, because there are a lot of question marks. The best-case scenario is that Benson is 100% and stays all year, Perez harnesses his control and becomes a #1/#2 starter, Wells keeps his ERA in the low threes, and Fogg comes back to where he was in 2002. But I consider that very unlikely. I see Wells losing at least half a run off his ERA, Fogg and Benson bouncing back slightly, Perez being in the mid-to-high 4s in ERA while continuing to struggle with his command, and Reed being an absolute disaster with the Pirates running through several fifth starters, none of whom will make much of a dent this year. Overall, I don't see the rotation as being significantly better than last year. The bullpen is a nightmare; I can easily see a group decline of 20-30 runs even from last year's disaster.

Manager - Lloyd McClendon

McClendon has a bad rap among knowledgable Pirate fans, and I think some of that is justified. But in fairness to the man, he hasn't have a lot with which to work, and he's made some strides since his early days, particularly with the pitchers. He's done a pretty good job rotating the pitchers in and out, spotting them and getting the most out of them that he can. He does tend to play favorites, and he has a weakness for hard-nosed, "scrappy" players like Rob Mackowiak. Part of Craig Wilson's problem on this team is that he's the strong, silent type who is not really a vocal leader, and McClendon doesn't particular care for that attitude. He hasn't really had the material with which to make a good lineup - there's not much he can do when he's got three #8 hitters playing second, short, and third, which happened on occasion last year after Ramirez was traded. But while he's willing to experiment on occasion (Jason Kendall leading off), he's basically a lineup traditionalist at heart - the speedy guy leading off, the bat control specialist batting second, etc. On this team, it costs little, because there aren't enough good hitters to make a difference. He's not exactly a martinet, but he does make it very clear what he expects and does seem to hold players accountable when they screw up. The team does play hard, and I guess that's a plus.

Overall Outlook

The Bucs make a big deal out of their winning record over their last 97 games last year (49-48), offering that as proof that the team could be competitive. When you are grasping at straws, I suppose any positive news is good news. But the Bucs had a winning record in only one calendar month in 2003 (July); they were 10 games under .500 by the end of June and basically were treading water from that point on. The Pirates won one game fewer than their Pythgaorean projection, so what you saw last year was what you really got. The offense is going to be worse, the pitching isn't likely to be any better and could be worse as well. I see this as a 72-win team, perhaps marginally better than the Brewers and Reds, but not a whole lot better.

What I Hope to See

By the end of the season:

  • Craig Wilson with 500 PAs
  • Jose Castillo starting at shortstop
  • JJ Davis and Tony Alvarez starting in the outfield
  • Sean Burnett and John VanBenschoten in the rotation
  • Jason Kendall and Kris Benson still on the team

I'll be surprised if I see one of them.

2004 ZiPS Projections
Name               P    AVG   OBP   SPC    G   AB    R    H  2B  3B  HR  RBI   BB    K  SB  CS 
Bay                lf  .283  .389  .476  121  420   73  119  17   2  20   69   69  103  19   7 
Wilson             rf  .274  .374  .498  121  325   47   89  15   2  18   57   36   92   3   2 
Abad*              1b  .299  .376  .449  121  461   68  138  34   1  11   63   52   62   0   2 
Sanchez            3b  .307  .376  .413  112  407   68  125  26   1   5   48   41   61  10   4 
Redman*            cf  .299  .360  .446  138  525   75  157  35   6  10   64   44   88  18  11 
Davis              lf  .271  .334  .487  123  413   57  112  22   2  21   70   35  102   9   6 
Kendall            c   .302  .377  .390  152  589   75  178  28   3   6   63   51   38  10  10 
Alvarez            cf  .305  .352  .450  118  429   61  131  27   1  11   60   27   70  15  14 
Mondesi            rf  .255  .336  .469  145  548   85  140  36   3  25   88   62  104  19  11 
Simon*             1b  .293  .325  .454  122  423   45  124  21   1  15   64   16   33   0   1 
Stynes             3b  .263  .335  .417  124  391   61  103  26   2  10   50   39   64   2   2 
Garrett#           rf  .279  .331  .414  125  481   66  134  24   4  11   58   33   97  12   7 
Castillo           ss  .278  .349  .375  132  493   70  137  18   3   8   52   49   73  17   8 
Hill#              2b  .266  .344  .383  122  462   70  123  24   3   8   50   50   87  13   7 
Sadler             rf  .276  .327  .403  125  471   67  130  30   3   8   54   31  104  17   7 
House              c   .259  .327  .394   77  297   35   77  14   1   8   37   27   72   1   1 
Allen*             lf  .274  .342  .373  127  474   83  130  19   2   8   62   45   90   5   7 
Rivera*            1b  .262  .305  .421  135  423   49  111  25   0  14   60   21   75   1   1 
Mackowiak*         3b  .249  .323  .391  132  389   46   97  19   3  10   46   36  109   8   4 
Cota               c   .263  .321  .397   97  350   46   92  18   1   9   44   27   89   2   4 
Ward*              1b  .262  .317  .392  114  344   27   90  21   0   8   43   25   60   0   2 
Merced*            rf  .244  .313  .392  117  209   22   51  15   2   4   23   19   36   3   1 
McDonald           c   .228  .293  .419   84  272   28   62  16   0  12   41   22   50   0   0 
Truby              3b  .247  .306  .394  128  449   51  111  29   2  11   55   34   97   3   4 
Toca               1b  .262  .300  .383  114  405   41  106  25   0   8   48   18   73   4   2 
Nunez#             2b  .250  .319  .349  118  304   33   76  11   5   3   25   29   51   7   3 
Wilson             2b  .261  .313  .349  147  547   65  143  21   3   7   53   37   75   4   4 
de la Rosa         ss  .231  .297  .320  104  347   39   80  17   1   4   32   30   53   6   5 
de los Santos      ss  .245  .287  .299   97  355   25   87  11   1   2   29   18   54   7   5 
Mendez             ss  .216  .278  .320  119  431   55   93  21   0   8   44   32  116  10   8 
Martinez*          c   .214  .270  .320   29  103   10   22   2   0   3   11    7   29   0   1 

Name                  ERA   W   L   G  GS     INN    H   ER  HR   BB    K 
Burnett*             3.71  11   8  27  27   153.0  159   63   5   39   62 
Vogelsong            3.99   9   8  29  25   142.0  133   63  13   48  116 
Grabow*              4.07   9   7  34  18   126.0  125   57  12   37   86 
Stewart*             4.10   8   7  24  24   123.0  113   56  13   45  111 
Wells                4.30  11  11  33  30   182.0  175   87  18   67  142 
Torres               4.39   7   7  36  23   158.0  160   77  17   51  104 
Meadows              4.41   8   9  36  25   155.0  166   76  21   32   94 
Figueroa             4.45   8   8  34  23   166.0  171   82  19   49  102 
Benson               4.47   8   9  26  26   159.0  156   79  18   59  119 
Boehringer           4.50   4   4  62   0    70.0   66   35   7   32   57 
Corey                4.50   4   5  54   0    60.0   53   30   7   29   60 
Mesa                 4.50   5   5  56   0    68.0   68   34   6   29   46 
Johnston*            4.57   4   4  34   4    63.0   61   32   5   30   44 
Gonzalez*            4.60   4   5  24  13    88.0   83   45   9   43   71 
Reed                 4.60  10  11  31  28   172.0  195   88  27   30   96 
Fogg                 4.72   9  10  35  27   160.0  170   84  21   49   98 
Acevedo              4.73   3   3  55   0    59.0   60   31   5   25   40 
Roberts              4.74   5   7  48   8    95.0   96   50  10   39   67 
Connolly*            4.76   5   6  27  21   121.0  126   64  11   50   67 
Perez*               4.79   7  10  28  28   156.0  141   83  23   74  161 
Beimel*              4.80   4   5  54   8    90.0   92   48   9   40   55 
Boyd                 4.86   2   3  52   0    63.0   63   34   7   28   44 
Almonte              4.98   2   3  48   0    56.0   53   31   8   26   49 
Reid                 5.02   5   8  29  18   120.0  134   67  20   30   65 
Guthrie*             5.09   2   5  63   0    46.0   44   26   6   24   37 
Williams*            5.26   5   9  24  21   118.0  128   69  18   44   72 
Fussell              5.59   5   8  29  26   153.0  155   95  21   88  111 
ZiPS Projections are not playing time predictors; they project a player's performance given playing time in the majors in their accustomed role. As with all projections, specific knowledge of non-statistical attributes of the player should temper what the computer says.
Mike Emeigh Posted: March 14, 2004 at 12:00 AM | 6 comment(s)
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   1. Elevate Phil Coorey Later Posted: March 14, 2004 at 11:15 PM (#615053)
Sensational review.

If I may also use this oppurtunity to say that every preview so far has been great reading.

PC
   2. WTM Posted: March 14, 2004 at 11:15 PM (#615054)
Great preview, Mike.

I think they're going to end up platooning Nunez and Mackowiak at 2B. I don't get the impression they like Hill much. Once a prospect "flops" with a team, like Hill did with the Cubs, the "failed prospect" label seems to stick, and the Pirates are more frightened of young players than any other team. The fact that he wasn't healthy when he "flopped" won't ease the paranoia.

Boras isn't Kip Wells' agent any more. I forget who is now.
   3. WTM Posted: March 14, 2004 at 11:15 PM (#615060)
Maybe "looking forward" and "Pirates" shouldn't appear in the same heading.
   4. Mike Emeigh Posted: March 14, 2004 at 11:15 PM (#615066)
Thanks for the comments.

The fact that these thoughts are coming up again provides, in my opinion, even more support to the hypothesis that it's ownership, and not the GM, that is the problem.

Bob Smizik wrote along these lines a couple of months ago in the Post-Gazette; the homepage link is to the commentary on Primer. I especially liked this comment from the column:

Littlefield is a smart guy who came highly recommended to the Pirates when he took over midway through the 2001 season. He didn't all of a sudden begin taking stupid pills. He has had to make deals he knows aren't good because his boss has been so incompetent in running the financial end of the team.

Cam Bonifay isn't stupid, either. Bonifay's background is in scouting and player development, and in the mid-90s the Pirates under Bonifay's direction had what appeared to be a solid core of developing young talent. The team looked like it was going in the right direction - until "someone" pulled the plug after 1998.

Like Smizik, I don't believe that smart people suddenly "become" stupid. I don't for one second believe that either Bonifay or Littlefield, left to his own devices, would have taken the team in the direction it's gone every since 1998. That decision is coming from the top.

-- MWE
   5. WTM Posted: March 14, 2004 at 11:15 PM (#615067)
Mike,

So you think McClatchy was the driving force behind Bonifay's free agent signings? If you start from the 1996 fire sale, which left the payroll just about zeroed out so McClatchy could retain control of the team, it seemed like every time any money became available, Bonifay ran out and spent it on the first free agent who didn't laugh in his face. I think the most common assumption has been that McClatchy wasn't interfering with baseball decisions at that stage, that it's only been in the last year or so that he's begun really setting personnel policy. I take it you feel otherwise.

I don't have a lot of trouble agreeing with that notion--my cynicism where McClatchy is concerned is pretty much limitless. But I can't accept the idea that Bonifay wasn't stupid, or a very bad GM at any rate. This is a guy who thought Brant Brown could play CF, whose player development staff was an industry joke, and who blundered along for years without a minimally qualified scouting director, resulting in a succession of horrid drafts. (Ironically, he finally did hire a capable scouting director in Mickey White, but too late, so now Littlefield will benefit from--and is reprehensibly taking credit for--White's drafts.) And his free agent signings weren't just bad because the players were bad. He had no grasp of the market or of players' value. His approach seemed to be to settle on a guy he thought he could sign and then give him a blank check. The Bell, Meares and Cordero signings all showed a profound ignorance of the market and of basic bargaining strategies.
   6. Mike Emeigh Posted: March 15, 2004 at 11:15 PM (#615082)
I don't think McClatchy was "directly" interfering in baseball decisions for the first year or two. But I think that he's gradually taken a more active role in charting the team's course since the 5-25 disaster of 1998. Did he tell Bonifay to sign Pat Meares or Derek Bell, or to ink Kevin Young to a four-year/$24 million contract back in 1999, or to sign Kendall for 6 years and $60 million? Probably not, although he certainly signed off on those deals. What I think he did was to set the overall direction - "we need financial certainty; we can't afford to take risks" and "we can't afford bad PR, because the fans won't come out - let's lock up some guys long-term so that we'll have them in the new ballpark" and "we don't want to be embarrassed with those kids like we were back in '98" - and left most of the details of accomplishing that policy to the GMs.

I think Bonifay's problem was that he never quite got away from the necessity of building from within, and as a result could also never quite get away from the idea that he was looking for stopgaps who would mark time until the kids were ready. Littlefield seems to have adapted better to the risk-averse policy than has Bonifay, but the downside of that approach is that while the Pirates might "appear" to be competitive, there's very little chance that they'll ever get good enough to be more than just "competitive". Kevin McClatchy isn't willing to swallow going out there with a team that might win 85 games by 2006, if there's a chance that they'll lose 100 games this year.

-- MWE
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