Los Angeles Dodgers

No living baseball fan has ever seen a team like the 2003 Los Angeles Dodgers, and it’s unlikely any of us ever will again. Yes, they were that bizarre and unique. Here’s why:

• Dodger games in 2003 were the lowest-scoring games in baseball history. The average Dodger game produced a combined 6.97 runs, while the average NL game produced 9.22. That scoring rate – 75.5% of the league average – is by far the lowest figure of all time. (Thanks to BP 2004 for that nugget.)
• Even after adjusting for ballpark, the Dodger offense only scored 82.6% as many runs as the average NL team, ranking them as one of the worst hitting teams in baseball history. The ’03 Tigers were a tad worse than the Dodgers, at 79.1 percent. But the 2003 Dodgers were a worse hitting team than the 1962 Mets, who scored runs at 83.8% of the league rate. The 1916 Athletics, losers of 117 games, were also a better hitting team than the Dodgers, at 83.0%. (All those figures are ballpark adjusted.)
• The 2003 Dodgers racked up 179 defensive Win Shares (pitching and defense combined), the ninth-best total in baseball history. All eight of the teams ahead of them won the pennant, and that list includes some of the greatest teams of all time, like the 1906 Cubs, 1943 Cardinals, 1931 Athletics, and 1954 Indians. According to the Win Shares system, at least, the ’03 Dodgers have the dubious distinction of having the best pitching and defense ever among teams that failed to make the postseason.
• Taking defense out of the equation, Dodger pitchers combined for 129 Win Shares, tying them with the 1993 Braves as the eighth-best pitching staff in baseball history.
• Win Shares attributes 70.2% of the Dodgers’ victories in 2003 to pitching and defense, making them the fifth-most lopsided team of all time. As might be expected, the four teams that were more skewed than the Dodgers were all awful teams (#1 on the list is the 1998 Devil Rays). The 2003 Dodgers, then, were the most lopsided good team in baseball history.

Over the past few months there has been occasional discussion on this site about whether the Dodger defense in 2003 was truly great, or merely above average. Their total of 50 defensive Win Shares was tied for third among the 30 teams, behind Seattle and San Francisco. They fielded 72.0% of balls in play, the fifth-best Defensive Efficiency Rating in the majors. Observationally, the 2003 Dodgers had by far the best defense I’ve seen in 20 years of following the team closely, with the only other contender being the 2002 club. Most of the statistical measures, though, seem to show that the Dodger defense in 2003 was not historically great, just very good.

So after fielding such a bizarre yet promising team in 2003, what did the Dodgers do to improve themselves? In a word, nothing. In fact, they took active steps to make the team worse. They let Fred McGriff and Brian Jordan go as free agents, which was wise, but they didn’t replace them with anybody. They traded the third-best pitcher in the league, Kevin Brown, for a guy with a 5.99 ERA. They let Paul Quantrill, one of the best middle relievers in the game, sign with the Yankees as a free agent. Their three big acquisitions were an outfielder with a .313 on-base percentage, plus the major leagues’ two most notorious pot smokers. It was an excruciatingly painful off-season for Dodger fans, who could only sit and watch as other teams snapped up the players that could have made the Dodgers a better team – Vlad Guerrero, Mike Cameron, Miguel Tejada, heck, even Rafael Palmeiro.

That the Dodgers did nothing to improve themselves was no fault of General Manager Dan Evans. In fact, Evans and Guerrero were reportedly ready to agree to a deal, but Vlad got away when Dodger management wouldn’t allow the contract to go through. "There’s no doubt we had the guy – none," an anonymous Dodgers executive was quoted as saying. Evans was hamstrung because Frank McCourt, the new Dodgers owner, kept missing deadlines for turning in his financial paperwork, and with the sale of the team in limbo, no major deals could be made. The Dodgers essentially threw away their 2004 season because McCourt was not competent enough to get his finances in order. Instead of player acquisition news, Dodger fans instead spent the winter hearing horror stories about McCourt – how his only real asset was a single piece of real estate in Boston, how his previous business ventures had tanked, and how he lacked the cash to do anything with the team even if he was successful in buying it.

Then came the bright light at the end of the tunnel. One of McCourt’s first moves was to fire Evans (who didn’t really get a fair shake) and hire Paul DePodesta as General Manager. Obviously this bodes very well for the franchise’s future; hiring DePodesta could well turn out to be the best move the Dodgers have made since moving to Los Angeles. Theo Epstein showed in 2003 what a smart sabermetric GM can do with a high payroll, and the Dodgers can be expected to follow the same pattern – just not this year. When DePodesta was hired at the beginning of Spring Training it was basically too late for him to do anything. He has not yet acquired any players or brought a single person he knows into the Dodger organization, and it will take him some time to reshape the way the front office sees things. The team’s outlook is bleak for 2004, but very bright for 2005 and beyond.

Perhaps no other position exemplifies the bizarreness of the 2003 Dodger season better than catcher. For about a month before the All-Star break, the Dodgers found themselves in a predicament that few teams have ever had: the two best hitters on the team were both catchers. Fortunately for Jim Tracy, Paul Lo Duca’s ability to play other positions enabled David Ross to get into the lineup a fair amount. Unfortunately for Tracy, both Ross and Lo Duca cooled off significantly later in the season.

It was a continuation of a troubling trend we pointed out in last year’s team preview: Paul Lo Duca just crumbles in the second half of the season. The sample size is now large enough that there’s no way it’s a fluke. His career stats before the All-Star break include a .314 batting average and .848 OPS; after the break, it’s .255 and .683. Before the break, he’s one of the best catchers in baseball history. After it, he’s Brad Ausmus. Lo Duca and Jim Tracy are both well aware of the problem, and have tried various solutions. Tracy has tried to give Lo Duca more days off, but it’s difficult to bench one of your best hitters when you have the offensive woes the Dodgers do. Lo Duca, for his part, hit the weight room this off-season and showed up to Spring Training 20 pounds heavier. Perhaps that will make him more durable. We’ll see.

When baserunners tried to steal on Lo Duca in 2003, he either threw them out or he threw it into center field. He nailed a tremendous 41 percent of base thieves, but also committed 15 errors, far more than any other catcher in baseball. (Most of them came in one bad defensive streak early in the season.) Despite all the errors, Win Shares rates Lo Duca as the second-best defensive catcher in baseball in 2003, behind only Ausmus. In all, L.A. catchers threw out 79 baserunners last year, roughly twice as many as any other team in the league. (That figure is even more astounding considering that Dodger pitchers allowed far fewer baserunners – and therefore far fewer running opportunities – than any other team.) For whatever reason, a huge number of baserunners were foolish enough to run on Lo Duca last year, perhaps because teams often found themselves in low-scoring one-run games when facing the Dodgers.

The Dodgers’ failure to acquire a left fielder during the off-season led to rumors that Lo Duca would be the Dodgers’ everyday left fielder in 2004, and Ross the catcher. That idea appears to have been squelched for now, which is good because Lo Duca, though an outstanding hitter for a catcher, would be a poor hitter for a left fielder. For the foreseeable future, at least, David Ross (he of the 135 OPS+) will have to be content with being the best backup catcher in baseball.

After the team took a decent gamble with Fred McGriff and lost, the big news in 2004 is that Shawn Green might be moving to first base, where his declining offense will be put to less efficient use. Green, of course, suffered through a season to forget in 2003, playing the entire year with a torn labrum in his right (non-throwing) shoulder. He was still a capable hitter, posting a 117 OPS+, but he lost most of his home run power, going a full month and a half – July 21 through Sept. 6 – without hitting a legitimate home run. (His only longball during that span came on August 19, and was a gift on an umpire’s blown call.) The injury forced Green to alter his swing and try to hit to the opposite field, which resulted in fewer homers but 49 doubles, a new L.A. single-season record.

Green had surgery on the shoulder during the off-season, but unfortunately, as Jon Weisman explained in detail in his blog entry "The Shawn Green of Old Will Not Return," the surgery was actually unsuccessful in repairing Green’s labrum. The procedure merely removed damaged cartilage. So with Green’s shoulder still likely to be a problem, the Dodgers should consider themselves lucky in 2004 if he repeats his numbers from last season. This much is clear: The best home run hitter in the history of the Los Angeles Dodgers is no longer a home run hitter, and appears unlikely to ever become one again.

But a first baseman who can hit 50 doubles is still a useful thing, and the move to first may not be a disaster. Green was going to be in the lineup regardless, so it’s really a question of whether the Dodgers would rather have Bubba Trammell playing regularly in the outfield, or Robin Ventura playing regularly at first base. Neither option is appealing in the least, but the Dodgers appear to be leaning toward benching Ventura. The good news is that Green, despite his initial reluctance to switch positions, appears to be doing well so far at his new home. If the Dodgers stick with the move, there is every reason to believe Green will become an excellent defensive first baseman after a couple of months learning the position.

However, first base will be a one-year stop, two years at the most, for Green. James Loney, the Dodgers’ stud first base prospect, has been extraordinarily impressive in Spring Training, displaying a fabulous swing and impressive maturity for a 19-year-old. The first base job will be his very soon, possibly as soon as this September.

Last season the Dodgers handed Joe Thurston the starting second baseman’s job, and Thurston handed it right back when he showed up out of shape and proceeded to bat .241 during Spring Training. By default the job went to Alex Cora, who with a .625 OPS was the third-worst hitter to hold a regular job in the majors last season. However, his defense at second base was spectacular, and Win Shares identified him as the National League’s Gold Glove second baseman. Cora and César Izturis last season were the best defensive middle infield I’ve ever seen, particularly at turning the DP. But surprisingly (to me at least), the Dodgers turned 164 double plays, only about 10 percent more than they should have been expected to turn. (For comparison, the best defensive infields in baseball history have exceeded expectations by more than 30 percent.)

With Cora likely to begin the 2004 season on the DL with a broken arm, there is an earnest competition for the job going on in Spring Training between Joe Thurston and Jolbert Cabrera (more on him later). Thurston followed up his awful Spring Training in 2003 with an equally poor regular season in AAA, batting .290 with no power and no plate discipline in the high-altitude hitter’s paradise of Las Vegas. He has also been unimpressive this spring, and at this point it would be a surprise if he ever becomes a major league regular. Expect Cora to get his job back after coming off the DL.

Remember when we said Alex Cora was the third-worst hitter in the majors last year? Well, the second-worst was César Izturis, whose putrid .597 OPS was outdone only by Brad Ausmus. (And since that’s the third separate Ausmus mention in this article, he might as well be an honorary Dodger.) But Izturis was, if possible, even more spectacular than Cora on defense. At least one statistical measure, Win Shares, identifies Izturis as the best defensive shortstop in all of baseball during 2003. His failure to win the Gold Glove is, to me, a damning indictment of the voting system for that award.

While it’s never a good idea to have a guy with a .600 OPS in your lineup, there were a few small indications that Izturis might someday develop into a useful player. Izturis upped his batting average, OBP and slugging by significant amounts, bumping his OPS+ from 52 to 61 – still nothing to get excited about, obviously, but a similar improvement this year would bode well for his future as a major league regular. The most encouraging sign was that Izturis, who in previous years couldn’t hit right-handed pitching with a 10-foot pole, evened out his platoon splits in 2003. His OPS against righties improved by an eye-opening 120 points. If he keeps it up, he may soon cease to be a liability to his team.

Adrián Beltré, to quote Joe Pesci quoting Winston Churchill, is a riddle wrapped in a mystery inside an enigma. At times he displays an admirable amount of plate discipline, and at other times he’s more of a free swinger than Wilt Chamberlain. His walk rate has deteriorated since his botched appendectomy before the 2001 season, and his OPS+ has deteriorated along with it, going from 116 to 93 to 98, and finally to 89 last season.

Beltré’s maddening inconsistency has caused many sportswriters to treat him with a venom usually reserved for the Barry Bondses of the world. More than one dolt has haughtily pointed out that in each of the last two years, Beltré has gotten very hot after the All-Star break – both times after the Dodgers traded for a backup third baseman. The clear implication – which I find offensive, and which Beltré should too – is that Beltré has the ability to turn his hitting on and off at will, and that he chooses to usually keep it turned off. This is ridiculous. To my knowledge, no Dodgers personnel have ever questioned Beltré’s desire, attitude, or work ethic. It’s just a matter of a young man, not yet 25 years old, being unable to reach the potential which others have foreseen for him.

Instead of looking at what Beltré isn’t, perhaps we should look at what he is – a slightly below average offensive third baseman with great defense. (He was, according to Win Shares, the most valuable defensive third baseman in the league in 2003.) One of my great pleasures during the 2003 season was watching Beltré turn in the greatest stretch of defense I’ve ever seen by any player at any position. For the first three weeks of August, he was simply superhuman defensively, handling the position with a grace and beauty and efficiency that made me glad to be a baseball fan.

However, defensive glories aside, it really is time for Beltré to start producing. He landed a $5 million contract in this, his final arb-eligible year before he becomes a free agent. His future as a Dodger is entirely dependent on how he performs this year. For the past few years he’s been a bargain at a million or two bucks per year, but at $5 million or more he could easily become a liability if he fails to improve his offense. How likely that is, nobody knows, but remember this: It’s very rare for a player to be a regular major leaguer at age 19 and not go on to become a star. And also remember that Beltré is still younger than Hee Seop Choi.

It’s nice to see somebody take advantage of the Yankees for once, isn’t it? After releasing Bubba Trammell last year, the Yanks will be paying him $1.55 million to play for the Dodgers in 2004. Trammell walked out on the Yankees in midseason – due to clinical depression, he claims – and won the MLBPA grievance he filed after the team unceremoniously released him. (New York disputed the depression claim, saying that Trammell was just ticked off because he wasn’t playing.) There may be more lurking under the surface there, but the end result is that the Dodgers were able to pick up a fine fifth outfielder for the league minimum of $300,000.

The problem, of course, is that Trammell will not be asked to be the fifth outfielder, as he would on a legitimate major league team. Instead, because Frank McCourt took so long to assemble his financial house of cards, Trammell may be the starting left fielder for the Dodgers. Is he up to it? Probably not. He’s on the downhill side of 30, and his offensive production has decreased every year since age 26. If he really is the regular left fielder, it’s going to be a painful year in Los Angeles.

David Roberts, a gem of a find by Dan Evans before the 2002 season, regressed last year due partly to age and partly to injury. Roberts isn’t getting any younger, but he still comes cheaply because he has relatively little service time due to not playing his first full season until age 30. Sabermetricians like to pound on Roberts because his OPS+ last year was a mere 74. However, there are three reasons OPS+ is an inadequate measure of value in his case:

• In each of the past two seasons, Roberts has led the National League in stolen bases for most of the season until injuries allowed Juan Pierre to overtake him down the stretch. His success rate in his Dodger career is an impressive 78 percent.
• His OPS is OBP-heavy. Roberts’ on-base percentage has always been above league average, even before adjusting for Dodger Stadium, and his low SLG is rendered less relevant in his role as a leadoff hitter.
• He’s a good defensive center fielder; he can go get ’em as well as anybody, though he has an atrocious throwing arm.

One of the reasons for Roberts’ disappointing 2003 was that he played most of the season with a strained hamstring, one of the worst injuries a speed merchant can have. Roberts says his legs feel great this spring, though, and if that’s the case, a reprise of his .277/.353/.365 season in 2002 is probably a good bet.

A team with no outfielders is going to give up a lot of triples. With that in mind, Dan Evans got Juan Encarnación from the Marlins for basically nothing, and signed him to a two-year, $8 million deal. It wasn’t a terrible move for the lame-duck Evans to make, but ideally you want a guy like Encarnación to be your fourth outfielder, not the biggest power bat in your lineup. Unfortunately, Encarnación will be relied upon to play every day and bat in the middle of the order. Encarnacion had essentially the same season last year that he did in 2002: .270/.313/.446 for an OPS+ right around 100. That’s not going to win you any pennants, but it’s not as bad as playing Wilkin Ruan out there. The Dodgers have locked up Encarnación’s age 28 and 29 seasons for a not-obscene price; now they just need to get some better outfielders so Encarnacion can take his rightful place as a platoon-type player.

In last year’s Dodger preview, we predicted that the Dodgers would have the best bench player in baseball in 2003. We were right, but we got the wrong guy. Instead of Mike Kinkade, it was Jolbert Cabrera whose supersub antics saved the Dodgers from a more ignominious fate. Cabrera played at least four games at each of seven different positions. I haven’t checked, but I wouldn’t be too surprised if he’s the first player in major league history to do that. He also put up a 105 OPS+ and hit doubles at a Heltonian rate, although the Dodgers’ offensive woes forced Jim Tracy to play him more than he really should have. Cabrera will be back in 2004, perhaps as the starting second baseman, but more likely in the familiar jack-of-all-trades role. In the first week of Spring Training, he hit as many home runs (4) as all other Dodger batters combined, which probably doesn’t mean anything.

Other guys likely to be found on the Dodger bench this year include Robin Ventura, José Hernández, Jason Romano and former DePodesta employees Jeremy Giambi and Olmedo Sáenz. Ventura’s days as a regular are likely done, but he could provide some nice pop off the bench. Tracy has already said that he will play Shawn Green at only one position during the season, so if that position is first base, Ventura’s duties will be limited solely to pinch hitting. Three of the other four players (all except Romano) are non-roster invitees. Both Hernández and Giambi have track records as successful hitters, but each suffered through an atrocious season in 2003. Hernández was god-awful, playing with three teams in one season and posting a sub-70 OPS+ with each. Even if it turns out he still has something left, his swing-at-everything style is not likely to be an asset coming off the bench against the John Smoltzes of the world. Giambi, meanwhile, is an intriguing possibility, though he has been bothered in camp by a stiff back and a slow recovery from shoulder surgery. He is likely to start the season either on the DL or in AAA. Sáenz should provide a reliable power bat on the bench. Romano is useful only as a pinch runner and defensive replacement, but after a torrid spring training with an OPS in the 1.200 range, he will likely beat out Wilkin Ruan for the 25^th roster spot.

Los Angeles’ 3.16 team ERA in 2003 was about half a run better than the next-best team in baseball, and until a late-season slump they had a chance to become the first major league team since the ’89 Dodgers to post a team ERA under 3.

The Dodger starting pitchers in 2003 were the best in baseball with a 3.49 ERA, though only slightly ahead of Oakland, whose starters posted a 3.62 ERA with the same park factor. Leading the pack was Kevin Brown, who was the third-best starter in the league (after Prior and Schmidt) despite winning only 14 games. His contract was sent to the Yankees to make room for Vladimir Guerrero’s salary, but obviously that didn’t work out as planned. Still, the Dodgers should have a strong starting corps in 2004. With eight potential starters in camp, they certainly have plenty to pick from.

Hideo Nomo continued his late-career renaissance, turning in a fabulous season that re-established him as one of the ten best pitchers in the league. He was the team’s workhorse and most consistent pitcher, winning 16 games and posting a 3.09 ERA, and the Dodgers will need a reprise of that performance if they are to contend in 2004.

Odalis Pérez regressed considerably from his Cy Young-contending 2002 season, posting an 89 ERA+ in 185 innings of work. Most distressingly, he lost some of the pinpoint control that was the reason for his previous success. Pérez also had problems controlling his emotions on the mound, getting ejected from two starts, although this spring he’s promised to keep his mouth shut while pitching. I tend to think that Pérez will rebound in 2004; he appeared to have awful luck last year, and his 4.52 ERA was partly a product of two especially disastrous outings.

Kazuhisa Ishii, according to his pitching coach Jim Colborn, has a problem where he pitches extremely well in non-game warmup situations but then melts down during actual game competition. He has frustrating stretches where he walks everyone in sight, but he also turns in a lot of nice little games where he gives up one run in six innings. His effectiveness depends almost entirely on whether he has command of his curveball on a particular day. Expect more of the same in 2004, but his stuff is so good that I wouldn’t rule out a breakout season at some point.

Wilson Álvarez, who began the year as a non-roster Spring Training invitee, was nothing less than a godsend for Los Angeles in 2003. After Darren Dreifort went down with a knee injury in May, Álvarez stepped in for some spot starts and excellent long relief duty. After the All-Star break Álvarez entered the rotation and became the best starting pitcher in baseball, going 5-0 with a 1.17 ERA between July 14 and September 27. What’s even better is that his renaissance appears to be for real. His fastball has as much or more velocity than it ever did, his strikeout rate was the best of his career, and he’s mastered the control problems that were once his Achilles heel. If he can stay healthy, expect him to turn in another excellent season in 2004, either as a swingman or a full-fledged starter.

Edwin Jackson was the youngest player in the major leagues last season and also one of baseball’s better stories. Called up to start a game in the middle of a pennant race on his 20th birthday, Jackson outdueled Randy Johnson to win his major league debut. The consensus best pitching prospect in baseball, Jackson is rated the #4 overall prospect in the game by Baseball America, #5 by MLB.com, and #6 by Baseball Prospectus. Before DePodesta was even hired, Jim Tracy announced that the fifth starter’s job would be Jackson’s to lose in Spring Training, and so far he doesn’t appear inclined to lose it. I think Jackson is without question ready for the majors, but given the Dodgers’ excess of starting pitching and the possibility of delaying Jackson’s free agency by a year, starting the season at AAA might be a more prudent move. I only hope he doesn’t get overworked in the majors; since he’s the fifth starter, Tracy should take every opportunity he can to skip Jackson in the rotation. Everybody loves to compare Jackson to Dwight Gooden, and while a rookie season as outstanding as Gooden’s would be a shock, don’t be surprised if Jackson is baseball’s best rookie pitcher in 2004.

Jeff Weaver, acquired for Kevin Brown in a classic salary dump, is virtually guaranteed to improve on his atrocious 5.99 ERA, for three reasons. One, he’ll have a much better defense playing behind him. Two, he won’t face the DH. And three, he’ll be pitching in Dodger Stadium. Whether he’ll be a valuable contributor remains to be seen – his first spring outings have been awful – but despite disturbing peripherals, it’s highly unlikely his ERA will be that ugly again. At this point it appears Weaver won’t make the rotation, so expect him to put up an ERA in the 4.00 range as the long man in the bullpen. Advice for Edwin Jackson: If Weaver or Giambi gives you any green stuff in a Ziplock bag, please don’t accept it.

José Lima is the wild card of the pitching staff. After turning in a superficially good half-season in 2003, he turned down a guaranteed contract with Kansas City to sign with L.A. as a non-roster invitee. He was spectacular in his first few spring outings, and Dodger Stadium is the perfect place for a fly ball pitcher like Lima to flourish. I remain highly skeptical, however, especially since Lima’s strikeout rate has declined to nearly nothing in recent years. The best thing I can say is that he has an outside shot at becoming the Wilson Álvarez of 2004. With both Lima and Pérez on the staff, expect the Dodgers to lead the league in emotional outbursts on the pitching mound.

Darren Dreifort pitched OK last year until the inevitable injury, which occurred on May 28. The good news is that the injury was to his knee and not his twice-Tommy-Johnned pitching arm. For the first time in five years Dreifort failed to hit any home runs, but he did strike out four men in one inning. Last year in this space we predicted that Dreifort had the ability to become a dominant middle reliever in the Octavio Dotel mold, and we like that prediction so much we’re repeating it again. The difference is, this time the Dodgers agree with us: Earlier this week they announced Dreifort is officially being sent to the bullpen, where he won’t be worth anywhere near his $11 million salary, but still has a chance to contribute something worthwhile.

The Dodgers in 2003 had arguably the best bullpen in baseball history. For most of the season, they were on track to break the record for lowest-ever ERA by a bullpen, but a few bad performances by September call-ups derailed their bid. (The record, which has only been kept since 1974, is 2.26 by the strike-shortened 1981 Yankees; the Dodgers ended up at 2.46.)

Needless to say, the centerpiece of the Dodger bullpen was Eric Gagné, who turned in the most dominant full pitching season in baseball history. There are those who will argue that Gagné wasn’t used as efficiently as he could have been, and they’d be right – but the man was still amazing. The consecutive-saves record was the gimmick that got the public interested, but even if there were no such thing as a save statistic, Gagné’s numbers would still be unbelievable. Just contemplate them for a moment: Fifteen strikeouts per nine innings, the best K rate of all time. 82 innings pitched, 37 hits, and 137 strikeouts. A .372 OPS allowed. A .372 OPS allowed!. Even some objective measurements (like Win Shares) identified Gagné as the National League’s most valuable pitcher in 2003.

So what does that mean for this season? Well, if DePodesta has any influence on game strategy, it might mean Gagné will be nudged into more of a Joe Black role, entering more tie games and getting fewer meaningless saves. It might mean pitching him two innings at a time in close games, especially since Gagne’s splits for the past two seasons show that he actually gets better the longer he stays in a game. Obviously nobody should expect Gagné to repeat his 2003 season; a fair amount of regression to the mean is in order. My guess is that Gagné will probably regress (and boy does it sound weird using that word here) to about the level of his 2002 season, which included a 1.93 ERA and a .535 OPS allowed.

In addition to Jeff Weaver and Darren Dreifort, the rest of the Dodger bullpen will feature Guillermo Mota, Paul Shuey, and Tom Martin, all of whom turned in terrific performances last year.

• The Dodger pitching instructors deserve a great deal of credit for their success with Guillermo Mota, who was finally able to harness his high-90s fastball and become one of the best relievers in the game, with a 1.97 ERA in 105 innings. He’s older than you probably think (30), but there’s no reason he can’t turn in a similar performance this year.
• Paul Shuey turned in his sixth consecutive fine season as a middle reliever last year, despite a few injury problems. He’ll be asked to pitch more in 2004 and carry some of the load that Quantrill left behind. His strikeout rate has been gradually declining, but I don’t yet see that as reason for worry. He’ll be a good pitcher this year.
• Tom Martin – who was picked up off the scrap heap on the recommendation of Shuey, his best friend – was the third-best NL reliever at preventing inherited runs from scoring, according to Michael Wolverton. At $1.5 million, they’re paying him too much, but he should continue to be an effective LOOGY.

Well, thank goodness for the Colorado Rockies – at least we know the Dodgers won’t finish last. They could finish fourth, though, and playing in a division with no great teams, they could also finish first. They should have exactly the same type of team they had last year, with phenomenal pitching and defense, but no offense whatsoever. It’s tempting to say that there’s no way they could hit worse than the ’03 Dodgers did, but I do actually think that’s possible. The pitching should be almost as strong as it was last year. I’ll be shocked if they don’t score the fewest runs in the league, and I’ll be equally shocked if they don’t lead the league in ERA.

My bold prediction? A third-place finish with 82 to 85 wins.

Name               P    AVG   OBP   SPC    G   AB    R    H  2B  3B  HR  RBI   BB    K  SB  CS 
Giambi*            dh  .270  .412  .464  107  293   46   79  15   0  14   49   68   75   0   1 
Green*             rf  .283  .372  .509  161  615   96  174  42   2  31  109   81  110   7   4 
Barnes             rf  .293  .342  .450  104  362   50  106  28   1   9   50   24   35   6   5 
Ross               c   .248  .333  .460   72  250   33   62  12   1  13   41   30   77   1   1 
Chen               lf  .256  .333  .455  132  481   73  123  24   3  22   75   52  135   3   2 
Ventura*           3b  .230  .347  .417  138  422   50   97  22   0  19   64   75   92   1   2 
Lo Duca            c   .283  .339  .415  144  544   65  154  37   1  11   68   41   42   1   2 
Trammell           rf  .246  .330  .441  124  399   51   98  19   1  19   62   47   66   1   3 
Beltre             3b  .265  .318  .439  157  581   62  154  26   3  23   85   40   97   5   4 
Riggs#             3b  .243  .331  .383  121  423   59  103  29   3   8   47   51   75   2   2 
Encarnacion        rf  .258  .311  .420  152  586   70  151  28   5  19   76   41   94  17   9 
Hill#              c   .266  .340  .356  115  436   55  116  21   0   6   46   45   73   3   2 
Abercrombie        cf  .259  .289  .453  118  448   57  116  22   7  17   61   15  175  20   7 
Flores             ss  .256  .356  .321  101  352   57   90  15   1   2   30   52   53   8   4 
Cabrera            2b  .266  .315  .391  123  320   42   85  24   2   4   35   20   53   5   5 
Thurston*          2b  .278  .322  .379  146  562   78  156  23   5   8   57   32   56   7  10 
Roberts*           cf  .258  .337  .328  111  387   54  100  11   5   2   29   43   45  35  12 
Hundley#           c   .185  .275  .414   79  227   21   42  10   0  14   38   26   74   0   0 
Saenz              1b  .225  .282  .400   90  240   23   54  19   1   7   31   17   49   0   1 
Romano             rf  .259  .315  .343  109  344   50   89  13   2   4   32   24   67  10   6 
Hernandez          ss  .231  .295  .372  150  516   52  119  27   2  14   61   45  179   2   3 
Victorino          lf  .254  .321  .325  117  406   51  103  11   3   4   35   36   60  26  10 
Cora*              2b  .252  .305  .345  141  432   39  109  22   3   4   39   23   55   4   2 
Bell               3b  .255  .286  .377  100  385   46   98  20   3   7   41   13   60   1   2 
Ruan               cf  .270  .296  .320  132  459   55  124  12   4   1   34   13   50  24   8 
Izturis#           ss  .262  .298  .325  152  535   50  140  20   4   2   42   23   54  11   7 
Castro#            ss  .221  .267  .331  100  399   43   88  17   3   7   38   21   96  15  10 

Name                  ERA   W   L   G  GS     INN    H   ER  HR   BB    K 
Gagne                1.82   6   1  74   0    79.0   46   16   5   18  120 
Mota                 3.18   4   3  64   0    82.0   67   29   6   25   76 
Perez*               3.47  11  12  30  29   184.0  167   71  20   39  144 
Weaver               3.49  10  12  32  27   196.0  176   76  16   54  145 
Shuey                3.52   5   5  60   0    64.0   49   25   4   31   66 
Falkenborg           3.71   3   4  14  12    68.0   61   28   6   22   53 
Alvarez*             3.78   7   5  26  17   112.0  109   47   8   30   87 
Jackson              3.79   5   6  27  26   145.0  124   61  13   57  127 
Dreifort             3.87   4   6  13  13    79.0   64   34   8   36   79 
Myers                3.93   4   5  51   0    71.0   68   31   5   25   40 
Knott*               3.93   8   7  36  15   119.0  125   52  11   21   63 
White                3.97   3   5  56   0    68.0   62   30   9   22   59 
Simas                3.98   2   2  27   2    43.0   44   19   4   10   20 
Colyer*              4.02   3   4  58   0    65.0   53   29   4   37   58 
Pineda               4.22   3   4  30   9    79.0   66   37   9   37   76 
Brohawn*             4.26   2   4  56   0    57.0   54   27   7   20   40 
Nomo                 4.31   9  16  33  33   209.0  178  100  26   99  200 
Farmer               4.44   5  10  25  24   142.0  146   70  17   42   72 
Sanchez              4.50   5   5  54   0    68.0   68   34   6   29   43 
Martin*              4.70   1   2  63   0    44.0   39   23   7   22   43 
Ishii*               5.01   6  14  27  27   149.0  126   83  17  103  142 
Sturtze              5.36  10  10  37  25   183.0  204  109  25   71  108 
Lima                 5.79   6   8  24  19   112.0  135   72  24   30   53