Detroit Tigers

Alan Trammell is one of my favorite players of all-time. He is one of the top seven or eight shortstops in the history of baseball and belongs in the Hall of Fame. The question isn't whether the 44 year-old Trammell can still play shortstop for the Motor City baseball squad, but can he cut it as the manager? Trammell played the great majority of his career for Sparky Anderson, one of baseball's best all-time managers. Tiger fans can hope that Trammell learned a lot from Anderson and will be able to employ the same motivational techniques to inspire a team of mainly made up of average veterans and mediocre prospects to a record within shouting distance of
.500.

The Tigers have been directionless for a long time. Last year they finished 55-106, but was it disappointing? They were coming off a 66-96 record, so I guess it was, but 66 wins isn't really something to crow about.

In 2000, the Tigers did appear to breakthrough with a 79-83 record after 65 and 69 win seasons. What happened to cause the severe decline from 79 to 66 to 55 wins, and what can be done to improve the team back to respectability?

One reason for the decline could be Comerica Park. In 2000 the Tigers moved into Comerica Park, a pitchers park, especially in left centerfield, and with a relatively young and good defensive Bobby Higginson and Juan Encarnacion, the Tigers covered a lot of ground. In 2001 Encarnacion was replaced with Roger Cedeno, who couldn't cover centerfield effectively. Even when Encarnacion played center, he didn't cover as much ground as the previous season. Last season Wendell Magee and George Lombard played what appears to be very good centerfield and Higginson did not decline.

So, if it's not a question of outfield defense, what has caused the decline? Part of it is a lack of direction and a big part of that is Juan Gonzalez. No, I don't mean the trade of Justin Thompson, Gabe Kapler, Francisco Cordero, and Frank Catalanotto. That didn't really harm the Tigers team because Thompson hasn't pitched, Kapler hasn't panned out, and Cordero isn't the closer he was expected to become. Only Catalanotto has been a consistently effective player since the deal. The problem I see is the Gonzalez comments about the CoPa and that it hurts the team. Gonzalez cost himself a lot of money by refusing to sign with the Tigers, but he also cost the Tigers any shot at any free agent hitter they set their sights on. Granted I don't think that Randy Smith would have signed the right free agents, but even if he wanted to, they had no chance.

Realistically, to be successful in a Park like Comerica, a team needs right-handed, line-drive hitters, top notch outfield defense, along with some left-handed power. And, where don't you need solid pitching? Dave Dombrowski has been successful everywhere else he's built a team, so let's look at the 2003 iteration of the Tigers, the first team he's really going to have any impact upon.

Catcher - Brandon Inge

Inge is the only catcher on the Tigers 40-man roster. Last year he caught about 28% of the runners attempting to steal against him. The previous year it was over 45%. Considering Inge has not had much success at the plate in his short career, his respectable throwing arm has given him a solid defensive reputation as a catcher. As the theory goes, if you've got a catcher who can't hit, you call him a defensive specialist so fans aren't disappointed in his offense, even if he's not that great at throwing out runners or calling a game. Inge is going into his third season in the big leagues and he is 26 this year, so either he can hit or he can't. If he can't, he'll be a defensive specialist for the remainder of his career.

First Base - Carlos Pena

Pena was one of the top prospects in baseball an off-season ago. Projected to be the long term replacement for Rafael Palmeiro in Texas, he was instead dealt to the A's. After starting off slowly in Oakland he was sent down to AAA and was eventually traded to Detroit, effectively, for Jeff Weaver. Many asked why a team going through a rebuilding phase would deal a young pitcher, but I think it had more to do with starting over as it was related to age. Also, Weaver had a lot more service time, so this did save the Tigers a decent amount of money and gain the Tigers some years in their rebuilding process.

Pena lost some stock based upon his performance last season. He finished with an OPS+ of 104 with a 112 after the trade to Detroit. At first base that's not a great posting but for a 24 year-old rookie it's not bad. Interestingly enough, his number 3 and 4 comps through age 24 are Tony Clark and Cecil Fielder. I'm sure the Tigers would be extremely pleased with Pena if he peaked like these two former Tiger sluggers. Pena is also not of the same build as either of these two, so he is much less likely to flame out early. He could wind up more like his #1 comp though age 24, Bill White, considering his defensive reputation. At this point I wouldn't consider him the equal of John Olerud or J.T. Snow, but he should give confidence to his fellow Tiger infielders and start his share of double plays.

Expect Pena to build on his successes in Detroit last season.

Second Base - Damion Easley

Easley's contract is one of the last burdens of the Randy Smith era. Easley peaked at age 27 in 1997 and has declined as a hitter ever since. Consider OPS+s of 117, 107, 97, 96, 85, 82 over the past six seasons. Don't count on him to improve at age 33 this season.

Easley lost a lot of points due to a decline in batting average last year so it's possible that he could easily dead cat bounce this season. He really can't be expected to bat any lower than .224, however, and even if he added 25 points to his batting average, on-base percentage, and slugging average, he will only be back to his 2001 levels.

Easley continues to post above league average defensive range factor and fielding percentage numbers. Provided he is healthy, he should be a solid defensive player.

Third Base - Dean Palmer

Palmer is expected to play third base again this year. The again refers back to the expected in the previous sentence, rather than the play. Palmer 's last near complete season was in 2000 and I can't imagine that come April, he'll actually play third base. Most likely he will play a little at the hot corner, a little at designated hitter, and a spend a lot of time on the disabled list. Palmer pulled his hamstring in Spring Training late last week.

Long-time prospect Eric Munson has been taking infield practice at third base. If he can make the conversion from catcher, to first base, to third base, it will be useful for the Tigers. He looks like he can be a credible hitter at the Major League level. Munson hit .262 with 30 doubles, 24 homeruns, and 77 walks in 477 ABs in Toledo before his call up.

Craig Paquette had a dreadful season last year. At least he's better than Truby.

Travis Chapman is the wild card at third base for the Tigers. He is a Rule 5 selection who must remain with the Major League team all season. He should be an adequate hitter with minimal power and a solid glove.

Realistically, the Tigers have a choice of offense or defense at this position, not a decision most teams want to make. Most will choose defense, because running a player out there to make errors and not get to balls looks more embarrassing than sending a player up to the plate to make outs.

Shortstop - Alan Trammell?

If third base is a question for the Tigers going into the season, what is shortstop? Trammell probably is the best hitting shortstop in camp.

The other three options are Shane Halter, who is the answer to a trivia question, Ramon Santiago and Omar Infante who are young players with good gloves and weak bats. No matter who plays shortstop it will be a hole in the lineup for the Tigers. Infante has the better long term potential than Santiago. He's two-and-a-half years younger, but only one-half year behind developmentally. Don't expect either one to break through this season.

Leftfield - Dmitri Young

Young will be playing leftfield for the Tigers this year. Last season Young was plagued by injuries, but when he was in the lineup he put up Dmitri Young numbers. What are those? Young derives most of his OBP from batting average and he didn't disappoint last season, batting .284 in a down league year for batting average. Young didn't walk much, giving him a near league average OBP. He also slugged about 10% better than the league average, mainly through doubles. If healthy, expect the same thing from Young again this year - a very good batting average, few walks, and a lot of doubles.

What you shouldn't expect is Bobby Higginson in leftfield. While Higginson consistently posts range numbers solidly above league average, Young should be league average in a park where above league average numbers are needed. Maybe the Tigers moved the leftfield fence in to accommodate Young in leftfield rather than to entice more hitters to come to the Motor City?

Hiram Bocachica, George Lombard, Andres Torres, and Gene Kingsale are the options for the Tigers in center field. None are exceptionally young, and none are considered good hitters. Lombard, once a top prospect with the Braves, should be the best hitter among the four.

Rightfield - Bobby Higginson

Higginson is what should be the definition of a proven veteran. He's on the wrong side of 30, but still contributes to the team both offensively and defensively. Higginson's power has declined each of the last two seasons and there is little evidence that he will improve his power numbers this year even after considering the park factor change that should occur in the CoPa this year. He does, however, still get on a base at a good clip above the league average. Higginson is also becoming an injury risk after only playing 117 games last season. This will be the first year since 1999 that Higginson will be shifted back to right field.

Designated Hitter - Eric Munson

Munson, Palmer, Paquette, and Young will all see some time at DH this season.

Starting Rotation

Steve Sparks
Mike Maroth
Nate Cornejo
Andy Van Hekken
Shane Loux
Steve Avery
Adam Bernero

The best place to develop young pitchers is at the back of a rotation in a pitchers' park with good defense. The Tigers don't have the luxury of bringing these young starters along slowly; they're the only pitchers the Tigers have. So expect growing pains.

Sparks is the only pitcher older than 25 in the rotation and he's 37. But as a knuckleballer, age isn't really an issue. It's actually good for the Tigers that he is a knuckler since innings don't matter as much and he can come back in relief between starts. Sparks gives up hits. He doesn't walk a lot and doesn't strike out a lot. As a knuckleballer. Sparks benefits from fewer hits to balls in play than most pitchers, as calculated by Voros McCracken. Like many knuckleballers, Sparks' career has been up and down. He could bounce back just as easily as he could fall from the face of the earth.

I like Mike Maroth a lot. At age 24 he pitched to an ERA+ of 94. He doesn't walk many or strike out a lot. In Toledo he pitched pretty much the same way, just with fewer walks. In AAA, Maroth had a 2.83 ERA, with 53 hits 22 walks, and 51 Ks in 73 1/3 Innings. Once promoted, he threw 128 2/3 Innings. That's a lot of innings for a 24 year old pitcher. Granted, by not walking or striking out a lot of batters, he probably didn't have workhorse innings, but it still was a lot. He and all of the other young starters will be at risk, because somebody has to throw the innings this year. Trammell should treat them all with kid gloves as that might mean a huge burden picked up by the bullpen.

Cornejo had a very good K/BB ratio in Toledo last season. But compared to Maroth, he was not very effective in AAA nor at the Major League level. At 6'5" he could be a dominant power pitcher, but his K/IP numbers are not terrific. Don't expect Cornejo to do well this year.

Van Hekken pitched at three levels last season and was successful at all of them. In Erie he did strike out a decent amount of batters, but whether it was power or deception, the K's declined as he moved up to Toledo and completely disappeared when he reached Detroit. In almost any other organization Van Hekken, 23, would spend the year developing in AAA, before coming up for good. But, in Detroit, he will likely be in the rotation all year. I hope that doesn't stunt his development.

Loux is another non-strikeout pitcher making the move from Toledo to the Majors this year. Loux's numbers are very similar to Cornejo's at AAA. He likely could also benefit from another year at AAA.

Avery is a reclamation project in Detroit and hasn't pitched since 1999. Don't expect him to make the team

Bernero should be a starter for this team. Bernero had terrific numbers in Toledo and poor surface numbers in Detroit. He did have a better than 2-1 K/BB ratio in the Majors and he had 5 quality starts out of 11. He got rocked in a few mop up relief appearances. Considering he's three years older than most of the potential starters, if there's one pitcher to abuse this season beyond Sparks, perhaps it's Bernero.

Bullpen

Matt Anderson
Franklyn German
Jamie Walker
Julio Santana
Oscar Henriquez
Danny Patterson

The Tigers bullpen will have to pick up a lot of slack for the young starters this season, but I doubt they'll be able to do it.

Anderson is coming back from major surgery that cost him most of last season. Before that, Anderson was an up-and-coming closer whose stats never really measured up to his speed on the radar gun. Anderson wants to be the closer again and Trammell seems to have given him a vote of confidence. The Tigers won't have a lot of save opportunities, so if Anderson begins blowing them early, expect him to lose the job quickly.

German is the closer waiting in the wings for Anderson to fail. He had solid numbers in AA and AAA last season and performed well in Detroit after the call up. At 23, he has a chance to be a good reliever. It's a shame that the entire would-be Toledo staff will be in Detroit this season.

The rest of the pen is just filler. I can't imagine any of them will break out this season.

Summary

With what could be a terrific defensive infield, depending on the third baseman, a weak lineup with multiple holes, and a solid AAA pitching staff the Tigers will have a successful season if they get back to 66 wins and finish ahead of the Orioles, Royals, and Devil Rays in the American League Standings. Can they do it? I doubt it. I think that they just don't have the arms to last the season. Anyone who wants to watch pitcher abuse should watch Trammell this year. He could baby these young arms, but is there anyone to pitch in relief after three or four consecutive 5 inning start? Or he could baby Maroth and Van Hekken considering they are the best long-term prospects on the staff, and just let the others go.

The lineup will have trouble scoring runs with major holes at shortstop, centerfield, catcher, and third base for at least part of the season.

I would expect a 60-102 season from the Tigers.

PO Player       G  AB  R   H 2B 3B HR RBI BB  SO SB CS   BA  OBP  SLG
C  Inge       116 378 38  81 21  4  8  40 30 110  3  5 .214 .272 .354
1B Pena       153 544 81 139 32  4 23  83 72 146  6  2 .256 .343 .456
2B Easley     125 466 61 114 23  4 11  52 44  69  8  4 .245 .310 .382
3B Palmer     110 369 52  91 16  1 19  72 47 115  4  1 .247 .332 .450
SS Infante    152 565 67 149 21  5  3  52 33  65 15 13 .264 .304 .335
LF Young      118 437 53 126 26  3 13  60 30  68  4  3 .288 .334 .451
CF Kingsale   123 392 51  98 22  7  3  42 30  73 12  4 .250 .303 .365
RF Higginson  131 491 68 140 28  4 16  73 60  66 15  7 .285 .363 .456
DH Munson     151 524 73 120 28  3 18  76 64 137  1  2 .229 .313 .397
c  Haselman    59 161 15  41  8  0  3  20 10  30  0  0 .255 .298 .360
if Santiago    99 330 49  85  6  6  6  22 20  63 12  7 .258 .300 .367
3b Chapman    139 469 59 127 37  1 11  63 45  79  2  1 .271 .335 .424
ut Halter     120 387 45 100 24  5  9  45 34  92  2  3 .258 .318 .416
of Lombard     81 288 43  71 14  4  6  24 30  96 15  5 .247 .318 .385

PO Player       W  L  ERA  G GS  IP   H  ER HR BB SO
SP Sparks       9 11 4.90 32 29 191 220 104 24 66 85
SP Maroth      11 11 4.33 29 29 181 198  87 15 59 88
SP Cornejo     10 11 4.43 29 29 181 197  89 19 59 97
SP Van Hekken   6  5 4.15 26 26 165 177  76 15 46 89
SP Bernero      6  7 5.01 29 18 133 146  74 23 46 86
RP Henriquez    2  2 4.76 54  0  51  49  27  7 28 46
RP Santana      4  5 5.03 42  0  59  63  33  8 28 37
RP Walker       3  5 5.65 45  7  78  93  49 17 24 42
RP Patterson    3  3 3.75 57  0  60  65  25  4 12 27
RP German       1  0 3.33 69  0  73  60  27  2 41 71
CL Anderson     3  1 3.30 57  0  60  51  22  4 26 57