Baltimore Orioles

What do the Orioles need to do to make people happy? When they were one of the perennial top teams in the mid-90?s people said that they were buying the pennant. When Angelos imploded the team and Syd Thrift started picking up every 34+ player two years past his prime, everyone complained. When they started letting those guys walk and playing young, mildly talented younger players nobody was happy. Now, they signed two relatively young second tier stars and brought back two fan favorites, one young, one old, but still everyone is unhappy with the Orioles. They also made a considerable play at the best free agent player available and missed him by one large Hispanic community.

Granted Jim Beattie and Mike Flanagan, or as many refer to them Beatagan (pronounced Beat Again), are not the most statistically inclined management group in the league, but they have been saying a lot of the right things lately by praising On Base Percentage and condemning pitcher?s walks. Maybe the O?s haven?t turned the corner yet, but they can finally see the end of the block, which is the best thing Orioles fans have seen since Tony Fernandez flipped an 11th inning HR down the rightfield line off Armando Benitez to win the AL Championship Series.

After 6 years of suffering in 4th place, a 7th season in 4th place is predicted. But, this year the O?s should be somewhat better than they were last year and may even push .500.

When Oriole Park at Camden Yards opened, it was the beginning of the retropark craze. It also was a hitter?s haven. Some called it a bandbox. Some still do. Those who still do don?t have any clue about how Camden Yards plays. From 1992 through 1995 Camden Yards played as a hitter?s park. It favored batters to the tune of a 102-105 park effect each season but in 1996, things changed. Since then, Camden Yards has bounced around in the 90s, but has consistently favored pitchers. The conventional wisdom has not followed suit. There was some tinkering with the fences a few years ago (and home plate was moved), but things are back to the original configuration. I would expect Camden Yards to result in 3-5% less scoring than the average park in 2004.

What OPaCY has done is revolutionize the Orioles attendance and make every team believe that if they build a retropark they too will see a permanent stream of money pouring through the turnstiles. Despite the O?s losing, their attendance still ranks in the top 3rd of the American League. From 1992-2000 the O?s were either 1st or 2nd in the AL in attendance each season. Then the losing started to take its toll. They have been 4th, 3rd, and 5th the past three seasons. That?s not bad considering where they have ranked in terms of on-field performance.

Additions:
Manager Lee Mazzilli
SS Miguel Tejada
C Javier Lopez
1B Rafael Palmeiro
SP Sidney Ponson/Kurt Ainsworth
RP Mike DeJean

Additions by Subtraction:
SS Deivi Cruz
3B Tony Batista
C Brook Fordyce
SP Scott Erickson
SP Damian Moss
SP Rick Helling (mid-season)

Subtractions:
Manager Mike Hargrove
1B Jeff Conine (mid-season)
RP Kerry Ligtenberg
SP Jason Johnson
SP Pat Hentgen

The O?s have considerably changed their lineup from their starting lineup last season.

CATCHER Javier Lopez age 33 (Geronimo Gil 2003 starter/Brook Fordyce most Innings)

Javy Lopez is sometimes one of the best hitting catchers in the league. The rest of the time he is the average injured catcher. People who love the O?s deal with Lopez expect him to hit 30-40 HR with a .300 AVG and 120 games behind the plate and another 25 at DH. Those who hate the deal see a 33 year old catcher who will have one good season out of the next three and two years mainly on the shelf with a OPS+ around 90. More likely, however, is something in the middle. More likely, Lopez will play parts of next three seasons and put up good numbers when he?s in the lineup. Even if he?s putting up an OPS+ of 90, that will be considerably better than the Brook Fordyce/Geronimo Gil combined OPS+ between 65 and 75.

FIRSTBASE Rafael Palmeiro 39 (Jeff Conine)

The O?s let Palmeiro walk after the 1998 season out of the same stubbornness as when Mussina left after 2000. Both times the player asked for more than the O?s were offering during the season and when Angelos gave his final offer, it alienated the player. Then after the season, when the player received his asking price from another team, the O?s upped their offer to the level the player had requested in the first place, only to lose out. It was foolishness in both cases, but in an effort to reconcile with the fans, they have brought Raffy back after five long productive years. Palmeiro declined considerably last year after a long run as one of the most consistently productive hitters in baseball. His apparently quality of 38 HR and 112 RBI only masked a decline of 20 walks and 16 extra base hits. If Palmeiro can maintain last year?s level of quality, with the commensurate loss in counting stats from moving to Camden Yards from Arlington, it will still be an improvement over Jeff Conine. Considering the fact that they are both going to be over 38 this season, I?m much happier with Palmeiro in town than Conine. Plus, if he is productive, Raffy will return next year as he grinds his way into the 3000 hit club.

SECONDBASE Brain Roberts 26 (Jerry Hairston/Roberts)

Oh what an epic battle it was to be. Jerry Hairston, who had finally made a breakthrough last year as a solid leadoff hitter and good defensive secondbaseman, versus Brian Roberts, the guy who filled in commendably for him last season when he was injured. Instead, Roberts has already won the job when Hairston broke a finger stealing a base during the first week of spring training scrimmages. Hairston looked like he could become a league average hitter with a .350+ OBP and a good stolen base percentage. Instead, he may have missed that chance. Roberts is a little worse offensively, and a little worse defensively as well. When it is all said and done, Hairston is the better player and should get more time but, if he?s not healthy, the O?s will have a decent player holding down the position. Unfortunately, it looks like Roberts will bat leadoff in Hairston?s absence, but with a worse OBP that could be a mistake.

THIRDBASE Melvin Mora 32 (Tony Batista)

Melvin Mora is the second-most prolific shortstop moving to thirdbase in the AL East. Mora has played a lot of positions in his career: rightfield, shortstop, centerfield, leftfield, and now thirdbase. Mora is not going to go gangbusters again, no matter what furious O?s fans expect. He has a nice established level of producing in the 95 OPS+ range. Was last season a new level of performance at 31? I don?t think so. Mora will still be an upgrade over Batista, who despite a bunch of homers, stunk. Mora can guarantee a .300 OBP, which is pretty much a pipe dream from the hacker Batista. Also, Batista was no better than an average fielder. Mora has been a good glove man everywhere he has gone, so perhaps going to third will help the team defensively as well.

SHORTSTOP Miguel Tejada 28 (Deivi Cruz)

I don?t know if any team improved more from last year?s player to this year?s player than the Orioles did with moving from Deivi Cruz to Miguel Tejada. Two-sixty-nine. That was Deivi Cruz?s On-Base Percentage last season. It wasn?t until about mid-season that Jim Palmer started complaining that Cruz was not getting on base enough and that it was a real problem for the lineup. Cruz had a OPS+ of 72 and 55 RC. Tejada has an OPS+ of 117 and 100 RC. While Tejada surely isn?t an on-base machine, sporting a career OBP of .330, his career SLG is .460 and he?s been over .470 each of the last four seasons. On top of everything else, Cruz was a league-average defender and Tejada is slightly better than league average. While Alfonso Soriano?s off season aging casts some doubt on the posted age of many Latin American players who were not caught in the post 9-11 crackdown on immigration, I think that we have to live with Tejada?s posted age and not assume he?s older until either Customs and Border Protection (former INS) or Tejada tells us he?s older.

LEFTFIELD Larry Bigbie 26 (Melvin Mora/Bigbie)

Orioles? fans have been waiting for the arrival of marginal prospect Larry Bigbie for several years. He?s never been the guy who?s going to light the world on fire, but he?s a high average hitter with a solid walk rate. I don?t expect too much power out of Bigbie, but considering he?s been blocked by Marty Cordova and BJ Surhoff, who are nominal DHs this year, it will be nice to see a player with some upside on left side of the outfield for the Birds this year.

CENTERFIELD Luis Matos 25 (Gary Matthews Jr./Matos)

Matos is another young player that O?s fans have been hearing about for several years, but for whatever reasons has not gotten a ton of time. Both Matos and Bigbie came up last year and won the bulk of the playing time because of injuries to the older, worse, more costly players. Matos can hold down CF defensively and looked good at the plate last season. Matos was never touted outside of the Orioles? own broadcasts as a prospect, so I would not expect him to light the world on fire. In fact, he didn?t rank as one of the top 100 prospects in any of the past few year but that?s nothing that should be shocking since no Orioles made any of the lists once Matt Riley was injured.

RIGHTFIELD Jay Gibbons 27

Jay Gibbons was the one good acquisition that the Syd Thrift rebuilding years brought. Gibbons was a power firstbaseman blocked by Carlos Delgado and to a lesser extent, Josh Phelps. The O?s grabbed Gibbons in the Rule 5 draft and have seen him develop into a solid hitter ever since. Gibbons is below average for a RF, both defensively and at the plate, but he can consistently put up a league average OBP and a 10% better than average SLG. Compared to the other legacy players, Gibbons is a star. Compared to the league, Gibbons is an adequate player.

DESIGNATED HITTER David Segui 37/Marty Cordova 34/BJ Surhoff 39/Jack Cust 25 (Segui)

If I were running the team Segui would be disabled all year, Cordova and Surhoff would be released, and Jack Cust would be the full-time DH this year. Unfortunately, I?m neither the GM nor the manager and Jack Cust will be buried again. The guy had 80 walks and 333 ABs at AAA this past season. At the Major League level he wasn?t quite as proficient, or perhaps the pitchers were that much better, but for a guy with doubles power and such a good eye, he should really get a chance to develop, especially with a team that has very little chance at even third place this year.

RHP Sidney Ponson 27

RHP Rodrigo Lopez 28

RHP Kurt Ainsworth 25

LHP Eric DuBose 28/LHP Omar Daal 32/LHP Matt Riley 24

Sir Sidney returns to the O?s after a playoff run in San Francisco. The only thing the Giants have to show for it is a stretched out pair of uniform pants. On the other hand, the O?s have Kurt Ainsworth to show for it. Ponson is a solid starter and an innings eater. Well, to be honest, it looks like he eats just about anything. Over his career, Ponson hjas been good for a league average ERA+, but in the past two seasons he?s been better than that. Since he?s on the right side of 30, he still could be developing and last year might have been a breakthrough.

Lopez has had one very good season and one very bad season. He pitched against the O?s wishes in the Mexican League for a third straight season. I wouldn?t expect him to stay in the rotation all season.

Ainsworth was a first-round pick of the Giants in 1999. He pitched well as a late season call up as a 23-year-old for the Giants in 2002. He began the 2003 season in the Giant rotation last year but was on the DL most of the season with a broken shoulder blade. Ainsworth is young and talented and if he?s fully recovered from his injury and treated like a young pitcher with an injury history, albeit not a terrible one, he could be the O?s best pitcher this year.

Two of these three lefthanders will be in the Orioles rotation this year. DuBose was a first round pick who didn?t progress as a first-round pick is supposed to. I guess TINSTAAPP. Omar Daal was good in 1998 and 1999. Since then he has been average to poor. He was worse than poor last year. I guess he can only get better. I predicted a dead cat bounce for Damion Easley last season. If the same success befalls Daal he will be released in spring training. Matt Riley was a top prospect who blew out his arm in the minors and is now a decent prospect. Riley K?d one batter per IP last year in AA and AAA. Riley gave up one hit per IP in AAA and was much better than that in AA. His K/BB ratio was similar at both levels and combined for 2.94 overall. Riley won?t have the stamina to go all season or even deep into games, but he could be a solid number five. Unfortunately, the O?s may need him to be the #3 for most of the season, which could put his entire career in jeopardy.

CL Jorge Julio 25

RHSU Mike DeJean 33

LHSU BJ Ryan 28

LOOGY Buddy Groom 38

Two more batting practice pitchers

Jorge Julio was a great closer his rookie year. Last year he gave up 7 more walks, 5 more hits, and 5 more HR in 7 fewer IP. That?s not good and as a result, his ERA more than doubled. Will the real Jorge Julio stand up?

Mike DeJean is not Kerry Ligtenberg but, the O?s gave up on Ligtenberg who was cheaper and better but not picking up his option. Instead, they signed DeJean who acted as a closer for the Brewers, thus making him a proven closer.. DeJean has had five good seasons, one bad, and one average- last year. Ligtenberg has only had good seasons- six of them. I guess Beatagan know what they?re doing.

BJ Ryan is big and has an awkward delivery. He was good last year. His three previous were up and down from bad to average to slightly below average. Let?s hope he?s found his true performance level.

Buddy Groom, like Ryan, has his good years, his bad years, and his average years. He?s no Jesse Orosco. At 38 Groom is the perfect guy for the O?s to deal midseason.

If Adam Loewen doesn?t get injured he?s the future of the O?s staff. But that presumes that there is such a thing as a pitching prospect. He?s a can?t miss High School pitcher. Nevermind.

Lee Mazzilli takes over for Mike Hargrove. Hargrove cannot be blamed for the O?s lack of success. They have had a mediocre to poor group of players in each of the years that he was at the helm. Except for his first year with the team when the Birds were 3 games ahead of their Pythagorean Winning Percentage, they have been 3 or 4 games behind their expected record. Overall, in four years, Hargrove?s Orioles were 7 games under their expected record. I wouldn?t say that 7 games over 4 seasons is a significant figure.. But, that means that Mazzilli could gain 3 games just through getting back to luck-neutral. If luck is to the positive in an equal amount, then the very same O?s would have finished with 77 wins. By adding Tejada over Cruz and Lopez over Fordyce, the Orioles may have gained 6 or 7 games. By reversing their luck they may have gained another 6. Mazzilli will be hailed as a genius if the Birds finish at or over .500. If it happens, it will be at the expense of the Central and their National League interleague schedule, because these Orioles are not better than the Yankees, Red Sox, and Blue Jays in their own division and three of the four Western Division teams as well.

As a player, Hargrove was a high OBP low slugging firstbaseman. Mazzilli was a relatively high OBP good defensive platoon corner outfielder after his days as a starting centerfielder were over. I don?t think career stats provide us much insight into a manager?s success level or even his style.

Name               P    AVG   OBP   SPC    G   AB    R    H  2B  3B  HR  RBI   BB    K  SB  CS 
Bigbie*            lf  .313  .384  .453  104  371   53  116  22   3   8   48   40   86   5   2 
Lopez              c   .270  .328  .521  124  426   60  115  25   2  26   80   31   81   0   1 
Gibbons*           rf  .277  .345  .485  144  548   72  152  34   1  26   93   50   72   0   2 
Matos              cf  .305  .358  .454  131  515   82  157  30   4  13   69   39  103  16   8 
Tejada             ss  .285  .343  .465  162  650  105  185  39   0  26  104   49   84   9   2 
Cust*              lf  .240  .375  .408  123  412   67   99  19   1  16   58   85  134   3   3 
Segui#             1b  .262  .358  .407   65  221   26   58  15   1   5   27   31   46   1   0 
McDonald           cf  .288  .363  .403   92  372   47  107  17   4   6   40   43   80   9   7 
Mora               lf  .258  .352  .419  123  446   68  115  26   2  14   60   57   88  10   7 
Mendez             dh  .303  .331  .432   79  333   40  101  21   2   6   41   11   45   1   1 
Palmeiro*          1b  .233  .338  .424  151  536   77  125  22   1  26   83   80   85   1   0 
Roberts#           2b  .282  .360  .365  138  553   85  156  26   4   4   52   62   66  29  10 
Fontenot*          2b  .274  .345  .382  128  456   56  125  16   3   9   50   42   99   9   6 
Cordova            dh  .252  .318  .438  119  404   47  102  28   1  15   59   35   92   1   6 
Mottola            rf  .251  .316  .400  103  390   52   98  24   2  10   48   33   74   6   4 
Hairston           2b  .259  .326  .363  116  410   49  106  22   3   5   40   37   52  20   8 
Swann*             lf  .247  .314  .375  124  421   53  104  23   2   9   47   37   86   3   4 
Raines#            cf  .265  .322  .360  135  495   71  131  17   6   6   45   38   91  27  15 
Surhoff*           lf  .252  .312  .364   99  330   33   83  25   0   4   35   26   33   3   3 
Leon               3b  .257  .298  .367  102  381   37   98  17   2   7   41   20   68   1   1 
Casanova           c   .234  .293  .368   76  239   23   56  17   0   5   28   18   34   0   0 
Gil                c   .242  .293  .368   94  318   28   77  13   0   9   39   20   60   1   1 
Osik               c   .232  .321  .318   72  198   16   46  11   0   2   18   24   37   0   1 
McLemore#          ss  .229  .323  .322  104  323   40   74  15   3   3   27   44   72  12   8 
Bautista           3b  .232  .305  .340  100  315   45   73  14   1   6   32   30   89   2   3 
Calzado            cf  .265  .314  .320  104  412   50  109  14   3   1   32   25   48  18   9 
Bellinger          3b  .226  .267  .387  100  323   38   73  18   2  10   40   15   76   1   3 
Reed               lf  .237  .295  .339  119  451   55  107  11   1  11   49   32  103   6   8 
Rogers             ss  .218  .249  .313   97  358   43   78  14   1   6   34   12   66  12   6 
Haselman           c   .219  .249  .303   71  228   25   50   7   0   4   22    7   42   1   1 
Morban#            ss  .159  .194  .246   59   69   13   11   0   0   2    6    3   19   8   0 

Name                  ERA   W   L   G  GS     INN    H   ER  HR   BB    K 
Groom*               3.70   3   2  66   0    56.0   54   23   5   12   44 
Ryan*                3.91   3   2  67   0    53.0   42   23   4   28   61 
DuBose*              3.95   9   8  37  21   148.0  144   65  12   46  112 
Ainsworth            4.22   7   4  20  19   111.0  105   52   8   45   87 
Ponson               4.24  11  11  28  28   187.0  194   88  18   54  127 
Stephens             4.31   8   8  33  33   194.0  196   93  26   49  151 
Bost                 4.32   2   3  49   1    73.0   70   35  11   20   55 
Riley*               4.33   8   7  27  27   135.0  125   65  13   57  120 
Lopez                4.45  10  10  29  26   166.0  170   82  21   48  121 
Parrish*             4.50   3   3  46   2    72.0   64   36   7   37   70 
Julio                4.58   4   4  59   0    57.0   53   29   6   26   51 
DeJean               4.78   4   5  73   0    81.0   81   43   9   38   63 
Bauer                4.88   4   5  42   5    83.0   87   45   9   33   52 
Daal*                4.99   8  10  31  24   148.0  163   82  20   46   82 
Rakers               5.05   3   5  48   0    57.0   56   32   9   25   52 
Cubillan             5.06   2   4  55   1    64.0   63   36   6   36   48 
Forystek*            5.29   3   6  35  13    97.0   99   57  11   54   74 
Paradis              5.80   5   9  26  26   135.0  146   87  16   80   77